8 results
Search Results
2. Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae.
- Author
-
Gray, Laura K., Clarke, Charles, Wint, G. R. William, and Moran, Jonathan A.
- Subjects
- *
NEPENTHES , *TROPICAL plants , *CLIMATE change , *ANTHROPOGENIC effects on nature , *SPECIES distribution , *HABITATS - Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. A Socio-Ecological Approach for Identifying and Contextualising Spatial Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Priorities at the Sub-National Level.
- Author
-
Bourne, Amanda, Holness, Stephen, Holden, Petra, Scorgie, Sarshen, Donatti, Camila I., and Midgley, Guy
- Subjects
- *
CLIMATE change , *SUSTAINABLE development , *BIODIVERSITY conservation , *DECISION making , *GEOGRAPHIC information systems - Abstract
Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Climate change could reduce and spatially reconfigure cocoa cultivation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050
- Author
-
Luciano Jorge Serejo Anjos, Tassio Igawa, and Peter Toledo
- Subjects
Environmental Impacts ,Crops, Agricultural ,Atmospheric Science ,Climate Change ,Rain ,Science ,Crops ,Horticulture ,Geographical locations ,Ecosystems ,Meteorology ,Deforestation ,Ecosystem ,Climatology ,Cacao ,Multidisciplinary ,Ecology ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Temperature ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Agriculture ,South America ,Agronomy ,Earth Sciences ,Medicine ,Anthropogenic Climate Change ,Planting ,Seasons ,People and places ,Brazil ,Research Article ,Crop Science - Abstract
Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa’s geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the “biomod2” library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.
- Published
- 2022
5. Mesolithic projectile variability along the southern North Sea basin (NW Europe): Hunter-gatherer responses to repeated climate change at the beginning of the Holocene
- Author
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Philippe Crombé
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,Environmental change ,BELGIUM ,Mesolithic Period ,Social Sciences ,Stone Age ,Forests ,01 natural sciences ,law.invention ,Trees ,Wildfires ,Geographical Locations ,law ,0601 history and archaeology ,Radiocarbon dating ,Holocene ,Hunter-gatherer ,History, Ancient ,Climatology ,Multidisciplinary ,Quaternary Period ,060102 archaeology ,Ecology ,Eukaryota ,Geology ,06 humanities and the arts ,Plants ,Radioactive Carbon Dating ,Terrestrial Environments ,Adaptation, Physiological ,Europe ,Geography ,Archaeology ,Medicine ,North Sea ,Weapons ,TRANSITION ,Research Article ,010506 paleontology ,Science ,Climate Change ,MODELS ,Climate change ,Research and Analysis Methods ,Ecosystems ,ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE ,Anthropology, Physical ,Paleoclimatology ,CHRONOLOGY ,Humans ,RECORDS ,Mesolithic ,Sea level ,Chemical Characterization ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Isotope Analysis ,Holocene Epoch ,LAND-USE ,History and Archaeology ,AREA ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Radiometric Dating ,Organisms ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Paleontology ,Geologic Time ,Bayes Theorem ,BP EVENT ,Archaeological Dating ,People and Places ,Earth Sciences ,Cenozoic Era ,Physical geography ,VEGETATION ,Pines - Abstract
This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories.
- Published
- 2019
6. Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae
- Author
-
Charles Clarke, Laura K. Gray, G. R. William Wint, and Jonathan A. Moran
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Atmospheric Science ,Topography ,Rain ,lcsh:Medicine ,Forests ,01 natural sciences ,Geographical Locations ,Pitcher plant ,Borneo ,Mountains ,Tropical climate ,lcsh:Science ,Climatology ,Multidisciplinary ,biology ,Ecology ,Animal Behavior ,Terrestrial Environments ,Habitats ,Habitat ,Nepenthes tentaculata ,Research Article ,Nepenthes rafflesiana ,Asia ,Climate Change ,Climate change ,010603 evolutionary biology ,Models, Biological ,Ecosystems ,Magnoliopsida ,Meteorology ,Ecosystem ,Paleoclimatology ,Landforms ,Behavior ,Tropical Climate ,010604 marine biology & hydrobiology ,Global warming ,lcsh:R ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Paleontology ,Geomorphology ,biology.organism_classification ,People and Places ,Earth Sciences ,lcsh:Q ,Animal Migration ,Zoology - Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them. This project was funded by Royal Roads University, through internal grant #120160. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
- Published
- 2017
7. Vegetation productivity in natural vs.cultivated systems along water availability gradients in the dry subtropics
- Author
-
Esteban G. Jobbágy, Francisco Murray, Germán Baldi, and Marcos Texeira
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,DATA BASE DEFORESTATION ,CLIMATE CHANGE ,lcsh:Medicine ,Plant Science ,01 natural sciences ,Biochemistry ,Geographical Locations ,purl.org/becyt/ford/1 [https] ,Disponibilidad del Agua ,remote sensing ,primary productivity ,Dry Farming ,SUMMER VEGETATION ,Tropical climate ,HUMAN CELL ,WATER ,Photosynthesis ,lcsh:Science ,2. Zero hunger ,Climatology ,Multidisciplinary ,Ecology ,Plant Biochemistry ,Physics ,Electromagnetic Radiation ,PLANT DEVELOPMENT ,WATER AVAILABILITY ,HUMAN ,Vegetación ,Agriculture ,Productivity (ecology) ,ecosystem functioning ,Physical Sciences ,Solar Radiation ,Seasons ,CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS ,Research Article ,Crops, Agricultural ,Climate Change ,Summer ,Oceania ,Climate change ,Growing season ,Plant Development ,Subtropics ,Horticulture ,METABOLISM ,010603 evolutionary biology ,Ecosystems ,Ciencias Biológicas ,TROPIC CLIMATE ,COMPARATIVE STUDY CROP ,deforestation ,Ecosystem ,MODEL PRODUCTIVITY ,purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 [https] ,Ciencias de las Plantas, Botánica ,Plant Physiological Phenomena ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Tropical Climate ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING ,lcsh:R ,Australia ,SAMPLING ,Water ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Enhanced vegetation index ,Cultivo en Tierras Aridas ,15. Life on land ,Arid ,Agronomy ,CLIMATE ,PLANT PHYSIOLOGY ,People and Places ,GROWING SEASON ,Earth Sciences ,Environmental science ,ECOSYSTEM ,lcsh:Q ,VEGETATION ,CROPS AGRICULTURAL - Abstract
The dry subtropics are subject to a rapid expansion of crops and pastures over vast areas of natural woodlands and savannas. In this paper, we explored the effect of this transformation on vegetation productivity (magnitude, and seasonal and long-term variability) along aridity gradients which span from semiarid to subhumid conditions, considering exclusively those areas with summer rains (>66%). Vegetation productivity was characterized with the proxy metric "Enhanced Vegetation Index" (EVI) (2000 to 2012 period), on 6186 natural and cultivated sampling points on five continents, and combined with a global climatology database by means of additive models for quantile regressions. Globally and regionally, cultivation amplified the seasonal and inter-annual variability of EVI without affecting its magnitude. Natural and cultivated systems maintained a similar and continuous increase of EVI with increasing water availability, yet achieved through contrasting ways. In natural systems, the productivity peak and the growing season length displayed concurrent steady increases with water availability, while in cultivated systems the productivity peak increased from semiarid to dry-subhumid conditions, and stabilized thereafter giving place to an increase in the growing season length towards wetter conditions. Our results help to understand and predict the ecological impacts of deforestation on vegetation productivity, a key ecosystem process linked to a broad range of services. Fil: Baldi, Germán. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina Fil: Texeira González, Marcos Alexis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; Argentina Fil: Murray, Francisco. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria; Argentina Fil: Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina
- Published
- 2016
8. A Socio-Ecological Approach for Identifying and Contextualising Spatial Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Priorities at the Sub-National Level
- Author
-
Amanda R. Bourne, Guy F. Midgley, Petra B. Holden, Camila I. Donatti, Sarshen Scorgie, Stephen Holness, Plant Conservation Unit (PCU), and Faculty of Science
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Acclimatization ,Vulnerability ,Social Sciences ,lcsh:Medicine ,01 natural sciences ,Geographical locations ,Ecosystem services ,Ecological resilience ,South Africa ,Governments ,Cognition ,lcsh:Science ,Conservation Science ,Climatology ,Multidisciplinary ,Ecology ,Environmental resource management ,Biodiversity ,Ecosystem management ,Ecosystem Functioning ,Research Article ,Conservation of Natural Resources ,Climate Change ,Political Science ,Decision Making ,Climate change ,010603 evolutionary biology ,Models, Biological ,Ecosystems ,Humans ,Ecosystem ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Sustainable development ,Local Government ,business.industry ,Global warming ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,lcsh:R ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Socioeconomic Factors ,Africa ,Earth Sciences ,Cognitive Science ,Climate model ,lcsh:Q ,Business ,People and places ,Neuroscience - Abstract
Climate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world.
- Published
- 2016
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