Search

Climate-driven sea ice loss has led to changes in the timing of key biological events in the Arctic, however, the consequences and rate of these changes remain largely unknown. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) undergo seasonal changes in energy stores in relation to foraging opportunities and habitat conditions. Declining sea ice has been linked to reduced body condition in some subpopulations, however, the specific timing and duration of the feeding period when bears acquire most of their energy stores and its relationship to the timing of ice break-up is poorly understood. We used community-based sampling to investigate seasonality in body condition (energy stores) of polar bears in Nunavut, Canada, and examined the influence of sea ice variables. We used adipose tissue lipid content as an index of body condition for 1,206 polar bears harvested from 2010-2017 across five subpopulations with varying seasonal ice conditions: Baffin Bay (October-August), Davis Strait and Foxe Basin (year-round), Gulf of Boothia and Lancaster Sound (August-May). Similar seasonal patterns were found in body condition across subpopulations with bears at their nadir of condition in the spring, followed by fat accumulation past break-up date and subsequent peak body condition in autumn, indicating that bears are actively foraging in late spring and early summer. Late season feeding implies that even minor advances in the timing of break-up may have detrimental effects on foraging opportunities, body condition, and subsequent reproduction and survival. The magnitude of seasonal changes in body condition varied across the study area, presumably driven by local environmental conditions. Our results demonstrate how community-based monitoring of polar bears can reveal population-level responses to climate warming in advance of detectable demographic change. Our data on the seasonal timing of polar bear foraging and energy storage should inform predictive models of the effects of climate-mediated sea ice loss., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Canadian Arctic is a complex and fragile region which is currently experiencing unprecedented environmental degradation due to climate change. The effects of climate change on the Canadian Arctic is just one example where we're seeing the decline of ecosystems and socio-culture-environmental traditions. Mineral development in this already fragile ecosystem is indeed a contentious and high-risk endeavour. However, mining is currently one of the few industries and economic development opportunities in the Canadian Arctic, which is one of the poorest regions in Canada. Unfortunately, mining struggles to achieve environmental sustainability due to mineral development's inherent trade-off of short-term economic gains for long-term environmental impacts. Local communities are usually left with trying to find this balance. This paper analyzes how we can apply decision-making techniques and environmental management tools for the Canadian Arctic's mining industry to promote better environmental sustainability, understanding of environmental-economic trade-offs, and community involvement. Specific decision-making methodologies and management tools are analyzed to develop, discuss, and explore their application for the Canadian Arctic. This paper concludes with a framework that brings together the analyzed methods and Arctic specificities; to prioritize environmental issues and to ensure long-term thriving communities in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts on Indigenous peoples in remote regions pose unique institutional challenges and opportunities for governments. Reducing vulnerability and enabling collaborative knowledge creation through the inclusive consideration of Indigenous peoples' perspectives in government and institutional efforts can help to advance adaptation to environmental change. In Northern Canada, Indigenous communities and multiple levels of the Canadian government and its institutions, including the Canadian Armed Forces, share the commensurate task and responsibility of responding to, tracking, monitoring and adapting to rapid climatic changes and impacts associated with climate change in the Arctic. In this review paper, we explore how Canadian governments may effectively work as partners and catalysts for advancing mutually beneficial climate change adaptation efforts with Indigenous peoples and communities affected by climate change in remote Arctic regions of Northern Canada. We review knowledge and concepts related to Indigenous traditional ecological knowledge in the context of institutional adaptation planning and policy approaches in remote regions. First, we provide a geographical and contextual background that informs the efforts of institutional partners and Indigenous communities seeking to mutually address long-term challenges associated with adapting to climate change, specifically in the remote Canadian Arctic. Second, we unpack knowledge for advancing collaborative adaptation efforts between Indigenous peoples and institutions in the Arctic. We identify relevant gaps and opportunities for enhancing institutional approaches to climate change adaptation involving Indigenous peoples in remote regions like the Arctic. We conclude with a summary of policy relevant insights for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout his tenure as Prime Minster of Canada (2006-2015), Stephen Harper had a particular fascination with the Canadian North, illustrated in part by his annual tours of the Canadian Arctic and Subarctic region. Using these tours as a case study, this paper argues that state discourses of sovereignty, resource development, and climate change are intertwined with the simultaneous production of a tourist landscape. This tourist landscape is established in part through the circulation of affect within state discourses, like those engaged by Harper on his northern tours. The affective economies of tourism in the Canadian Arctic are heavily intertwined with both market-focused policy objectives and the moral imperative established by climate change. The result is a discourse of northern Canada that puts it within the purview of southern Canada. In particular, the affective, economic, and ecological dynamics in northern Canada produce an image of the North as both a playground for southern desires and a place in danger that is in need of saving. This moral economy in the North proposes market-based solutions and ethics for both economic and environmental problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal fishery systems in the Arctic are undergoing rapid change. This paper examines the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to such change, using a case study from Pangnirtung, Canada. The work is based on over two years of fieldwork, during which semi-structured interviews (n = 62), focus group discussions (n = 6, 31 participants) and key informant interviews (n = 25) were conducted. The changes that most Inuit fishers experience are: changes in sea-ice conditions, Inuit people themselves, the landscape and the seascape, fish-related changes, and changes in weather conditions, markets and fish selling prices. Inuit fishers respond to change individually as well as collectively. Fishers' responses were examined using the characteristics of a resilience-based conceptual framework focusing on place, human agency, collective action and collaboration, institutions, indigenous and local knowledge systems, and learning. Based on results, this paper identified three community-level adaptive strategies, which are diversification, technology use and fisheries governance that employs a co-management approach. Further, this work recognised four place-specific attributes that can shape community adaptations, which are Inuit worldviews, Inuit-owned institutions, a culture of sharing and collaborating, and indigenous and local knowledge systems. An examination of the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to change is essential to better understand adaptations to climate change. This study delivers new insights to communities, scientists, and policymakers to work together to foster community adaptation., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This paper examines search and rescue and backcountry medical response constraints in the Canadian Arctic and potential for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to aid in response and preparedness. Semi-structured interviews (n = 18) were conducted with search and rescue responders, Elders, and emergency management officials to collect data on current emergency response and potential for UAV use. UAV test flights (n = 17) were undertaken with community members. We analyzed five years of weather data to examine UAV flight suitability. Numerous challenges face Arctic search and rescue and backcountry emergency response. Changing social and environmental conditions were described as increasing vulnerability to backcountry emergencies. Responders desired additional first aid and emergency training. Legal and weather restrictions were found to limit where, when and who could fly UAVs. UAVs were demonstrated to have potential benefits for hazard monitoring but not for SAR or medical response due to legal restrictions, weather margins, and local capacity. We find that communities are ill-prepared for ongoing SAR demands, let alone a larger disaster. There are numerous limitations to the use of consumer UAVs by Arctic communities. Prevention of backcountry medical emergencies, building resilience to disasters, and first responder training should be prioritized over introducing UAVs to the response system., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Aim: The rapidly changing Arctic is ideal for investigating uncertainties in climate projections. Despite the challenges of collecting data in this region, an unprecedented large‐scale survey of shorebirds has been conducted over the last 30 years. Our study aimed to (1) develop probabilistic estimates for the change in suitable habitat for 10 Arctic shorebird species in Canada by 2075 and (2) assess the contribution of modelling decisions to the uncertainty in these estimates. Location: Arctic Canada. Methods: To evaluate uncertainty, we considered six classes of modelling decisions, yielding 216 unique projections for each species. We tested three decisions that are less commonly explored − the pool of candidate variables, a method for selecting variables, and the maximum distance of tree line dispersal, as well as the modelling algorithm, carbon emissions scenario, and global circulation model. We used a bootstrapping approach, creating a probability distribution for the proportional change in suitable habitat for each species. Results: Our findings indicated a substantial risk for 8/10 species to lose over half of their suitable breeding habitat, but this projection is much less certain than has been described previously. While much uncertainty is unexplained, we were surprised that the largest source of uncertainty among our modelling decisions was from our choice of methods for variable selection, that the other modelling decisions were relatively small sources of uncertainty, overshadowing other modelling decisions. Main Conclusions: While most scenarios predict a northward shift and significant habitat loss for Arctic‐breeding shorebirds, the Arctic Archipelago of Canada will remain an important refuge because in many other Arctic regions, there is no land farther north for these species to shift into. A comprehensive understanding of uncertainty is important for deciding if future projections can or should be used when planning climate‐resilient protected area networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Near‐surface wedges of massive ice commonly outline polygons in tundra lowlands, but such polygons have been difficult to identify on hillslopes because soil movement flattens the ridges and infills the troughs that form beside and above the ice wedges. Over the past three decades, the active layer has thickened near the western Arctic coast of Canada and consequent thawing of ice wedges has been detected by remote sensing for flat terrain but not, generally, on hillslopes. Annual field surveys (1996–2018) at the Illisarvik field site of thaw depth and ground surface elevation show the mean subsidence rate above hillslope ice wedges has been up to 32 mm a−1 since thaw depth reached the ice‐wedge tops in 2007. Annual mean ground temperatures at the site are about −3.0°C beneath late‐winter snow depths characteristic of the ice‐wedge troughs but about −5.3°C under conditions of the intervening polygons. The rate of thaw subsidence is high for natural, subaerial disturbances because meltwater from the ice wedges runs off downslope. The rate is constant, because the thickness of seasonally thawed ground above the ice wedges and the ice content of the ground remain the same while the troughs develop. Observations of changes in surface elevation in northern Banks Island between the late 1970s and 2019 show troughs on hillslopes where none was previously visible. Development of these troughs creates regional thermokarst landscapes, distinct from the widely recognized results of thawing relict glacier ice, that are now widespread over Canada's western Arctic coastlands. Recognition of ice‐wedge occurrence and accelerated thaw subsidence on hillslopes is important in the design of infrastructure proposed for construction in rolling permafrost terrain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Algal bioindicators, such as diatoms, often show subdued responses to eutrophication in Arctic lakes because climate‐related changes (e.g., ice cover) tend to be the overriding factors influencing assemblage composition. Here, we examined how sub‐Arctic ponds historically receiving high nutrient inputs from nesting seabirds have responded to recent climate change. We present diatom data obtained from 12 sediment cores in seaduck‐affected ponds located on islands through Hudson Strait, Canada. All study cores show consistently elevated values of sedimentary ẟ15N, an established proxy for tracking marine‐derived nutrients, indicating seabirds have been present on these islands for at least the duration of the sediment records (~100 to 400 years). We document diverse epiphytic diatom assemblages to the base of all sediment cores, which is in marked contrast to seabird‐free Arctic ponds—these oligotrophic sites typically record epilithic diatom flora prior to recent warming. Diatoms are likely responding indirectly to seabird nutrients via habitat as nutrients promote the growth of mosses supporting epiphytic diatom communities. This masks the typical diatom response to increased warming in the Arctic, which also results in habitat changes and the growth of mosses around the pond edges. Changes in sedimentary chlorophyll a were not consistently synchronous with large changes in ẟ15N values, suggesting that primary production in ponds is not responding linearly to changes in seabird‐derived nitrogen. Across all ponds, we recorded shifts in diatom epiphytic assemblages (e.g., increases in % relative abundance of many Nitzschia species) that often align with increases in chlorophyll a. The changes in diatoms and chlorophyll a, although variable, are most likely driven by climate change as they are generally consistent with longer ice‐free conditions and growing seasons. Together, our results show that to effectively use diatoms in animal population reconstructions across the sub‐Arctic and Arctic, a strong understanding of eutrophication and climate change, based on supplementary proxies, is also required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infrastructure and transportation systems on which northern communities rely are exposed to a variety of climatic hazards over a broad range of scales. Efforts to adapt these systems to the rapidly warming Arctic climate require high-quality climate projections. Here, a state-of-the-art regional climate model is used to perform simulations at 4-km resolution over the eastern and central Canadian Arctic. These include, for the first time over this region, high-resolution climate projections extending to the year 2040. Validation shows that the model adequately simulates base climate variables, as well as variables hazardous to northern engineering and transportation systems, such as degrading permafrost, extreme rainfall, and extreme wind gust. Added value is found over coarser resolution simulations. A novel approach integrating climate model output and machine learning is used for deriving fog—an important, but complex hazard. Hotspots of change to climatic hazards over the next two decades (2021–2040) are identified. These include increases to short-duration rainfall intensity extremes exceeding 50%, suggesting Super–Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. Increases to extreme wind gust pressure are projected to reach 25% over some regions, while widespread increases in active layer thickness and ground temperature are expected. Overall fog frequency is projected to increase by around 10% over most of the study region by 2040, due to increasing frequency of high humidity conditions. Given that these changes are projected to be already underway, urgent action is required to successfully adapt northern transportation and engineering systems located in regions where the magnitude of hazards is projected to increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global human influence on the climate is growing at an alarming pace. This trend appears doomed to continue. Polar regions are feeling the effects first. This means that if the impacts of climate change serve to motivate effective policies, polar regions could be a good place to look for climate policy innovation. It is within this context that this article considers Arctic climate policy in Russia and Canada. The basic question posed is whether the unique and immediate threat climate change presents in the Arctic is reflected in progressive laws and policies with respect to four key areas: mitigation, adaptation, impacts and vulnerability, and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the framework of developing a global modeling system which can facilitate modeling studies on Arctic Ocean and high- to midlatitude linkage, we evaluate the Arctic Ocean simulated by the multi-resolution Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM). To explore the value of using high horizontal resolution for Arctic Ocean modeling, we use two global meshes differing in the horizontal resolution only in the Arctic Ocean (24 km vs. 4.5 km). The high resolution significantly improves the model's representation of the Arctic Ocean. The most pronounced improvement is in the Arctic intermediate layer, in terms of both Atlantic Water (AW) mean state and variability. The deepening and thickening bias of the AW layer, a common issue found in coarse-resolution simulations, is significantly alleviated by using higher resolution. The topographic steering of the AW is stronger and the seasonal and interannual temperature variability along the ocean bottom topography is enhanced in the high-resolution simulation. The high resolution also improves the ocean surface circulation, mainly through a better representation of the narrow straits in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). The representation of CAA throughflow not only influences the release of water masses through the other gateways but also the circulation pathways inside the Arctic Ocean. However, the mean state and variability of Arctic freshwater content and the variability of freshwater transport through the Arctic gateways appear not to be very sensitive to the increase in resolution employed here. By highlighting the issues that are independent of model resolution, we address that other efforts including the improvement of parameterizations are still required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A numerical study was conducted to characterize the probability and intensity of storm surge hazards in Canada's western Arctic. The utility of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) dataset to force numerical simulations of storm surges was explored. Fifty historical storm surge events that were captured on a tide gauge near Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, were simulated using a two-dimensional (depth-averaged) hydrodynamic model accounting for the influence of sea ice on air-sea momentum transfer. The extent of sea ice and the duration of the ice season has been reducing in the Arctic region, which may contribute to increasing risk from storm surge-driven hazards. Comparisons between winter storm events under present-day ice concentrations and future open-water scenarios revealed that the decline in ice cover has potential to result in storm surges that are up to three times higher. The numerical model was also used to hindcast a significant surge event that was not recorded by the tide gauge, but for which driftwood lines along the coast provided insights to the high-water marks. Compared to measurements at proximate meteorological stations, the ERA5 reanalysis dataset provided reasonable estimates of atmospheric pressure but did not accurately capture peak wind speeds during storm surge events. By adjusting the wind drag coefficients to compensate, reasonably accurate predictions of storm surges were attained for most of the simulated events. The extreme value probability distributions (i.e., return periods and values) of the storm surges were significantly altered when events absent from the tide gauge record were included in the frequency analysis, demonstrating the value of non-conventional data sources, such as driftwood line surveys, in supporting coastal hazard assessments in remote regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]