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Loess Plateau has great uncertainty on drought occurrence due to climate change. This paper analyzes the evolution of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and regional downscaling model (RegCM4.0). Results indicate that, under RCP2.6 Scenario, the precipitation will increase significantly (5% confidence level) at the rate of 16.40 mm/10 a. However, the potential evapotranspiration is showing non-significant decreasing trend at the rate of 2.16 mm/10 a. Moreover, the SPEI will decrease in the south and northernmost area and increase in the central northern area of Loess Plateau. Under RCP8.5 Scenario, the precipitation will increase significantly (5% confidence level) at the rate of 19.12 mm/10 a. The potential evapotranspiration will non-significantly decrease at the rate of 2.16 mm/10 a and the SPEI is showing increasing trend almost in the whole Loess Plateau. Generally, Loess Plateau is becoming wetter in the central part under RCP2.6 Scenario and the wet area will be enlarged to almost the whole plateau under RCP8.5 Scenario. Based on the results, the water resources will increase under global warming, which may alleviate the water scarcity issue in the Loess Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on compilation of a large number of archaeological and palaeosol 14C-ages, the Summed Probability Method is used to reconstruct population history and climatic patterns on the Chinese Loess Plateau during the period 8.5–3.5 cal. ka BP. During this period, the population experienced two major expansion periods and several climatic fluctuations. The first population expansion began at around 7.8 cal. ka BP, and the second at around 5.8 cal. ka BP. During the first period, although already in combination with cultivation of broomcorn millet the population growth was supported mainly by hunting and gathering. With the switch from broomcorn millet to foxtail millet, plant cultivation became the major factor promoting a second population increase. In this paper, we demonstrate that, initially, suitable climate and agriculture both can facilitate population growth and climate events had a significant influence on demographic fluctuations. However, when reaching the threshold of land capacity, population became increasingly more sensitive towards climate fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]