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The paper examines the relationships between ENSO events and tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during the ENSO decaying phase of March to July [MAMJJ(1)]. It is shown that WNP TC response is asymmetric to ENSO warm and cold events during MAMJJ(1), associated with the asymmetric patterns of oceanic and atmospheric environmental variables. Eastern Pacific warm events correspond to a westward shift in TC genesis location and a significant decrease of the TC number in the southwest subregion of the WNP, which is consistent with unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for TC activity during MAMJJ(1). Correspondingly, there is a much less WNP TC number, a shorter TC duration, and a decreased tendency in all three primary TC tracks. During MAMJJ(1) of eastern Pacific cold events, an increased TC activity in the northeast subregion results in an enhanced TC genesis number in the WNP. Central Pacific ENSO events have little effect on WNP TC activity during MAMJJ(1), except that central Pacific warm events are unfavorable for TCs to form in the northwest subregion associated with atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The paper also compares and discusses the TC response to ENSO events during the ENSO developing year of March-July. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a comment on a 2017 paper by Cheung et al., Kravtsov states that the results of Cheung et al. are invalidated by errors in the method used to estimate internal variability in historical surface temperatures, which involves using the ensemble mean of simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to estimate the forced signal. Kravtsov claims that differences between the forced signals in the individual models and as defined by the multimodel ensemble mean lead to errors in the assessment of internal variability in both model simulations and the instrumental record. Kravtsov proposes a different method, which instead uses CMIP5 models with at least four realizations to define the forced component. Here, it is shown that the conclusions of Cheung et al. are valid regardless of whether the method of Cheung et al. or that of Kravtsov is applied. Furthermore, many of the points raised by Kravtsov are discussed in Cheung et al., and the disagreements of Kravtsov appear to be mainly due to a misunderstanding of the aims of Cheung et al. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The statistical method, Average Predictability Time (APT) decomposition, is used in the present paper to estimate the decadal predictability of upper ocean heat content over the global ocean, North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. The twentieth century simulations from CMIP5 outputs are the main data sources in this study. On global scale, the leading predictable component is characterized by a warming trend over the majority of oceans, which is related to the anthropogenic forced response. The second predictable component has significant loadings in the North Atlantic, especially in the subtropical region, which originates from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) predictability. To separate interactions among different ocean basins, we further maximize APT in individual North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. It is found that the second and the third predictable component in North Pacific are significantly correlated with the well-known North Pacific Gyre Oscillation mode and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation respectively. Upper limit prediction skill of these two components are on the order of 6 years. In contrast, the most predictable component derived from the North Atlantic features an AMO-like spatial structure with its prediction skill up to 18 years, while the basin mode due to global warming only exists as the third component. This indicates the interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic is strong enough to mask the anthropogenic climate signals. Furthermore, predictability in the real world is also investigated and compared with model results by using observation-based data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few if any high-resolution (annually resolved) paleoclimate records are available for the Hawaiian Islands prior to ~1850 CE, after which some instrumental records start to become available. This paper shows how atmospheric teleconnection patterns between North America and the northeastern North Pacific (NNP) allow for reconstruction of Hawaiian Islands rainfall using remote proxy information from North America. Based on a newly available precipitation dataset for the state of Hawaii and observed and reconstructed December-February (DJF) sea level pressures (SLPs) in the North Pacific Ocean, the authors make use of a strong relationship between winter SLP variability in the northeast Pacific and corresponding DJF Hawaii rainfall variations to reconstruct and evaluate that season's rainfall over the period 1500-2012 CE. A general drying trend, though with substantial decadal and longer-term variability, is evident, particularly during the last ~160 years. Hawaiian Islands rainfall exhibits strong modulation by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as in relation to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)-like variability. For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large-scale changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long-term decline in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent with long-term changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries. Also noted are some rather large multidecadal fluctuations in rainfall (and hence in NNP SLP) in the eighteenth century of undetermined provenance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has had large impacts on marine animals, including neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii (O. bartramii) in the North Pacific Ocean. O. bartramii statoliths from 2012, 2015, and 2016 were used to evaluate the variations in life cycle events. The relationship between mantle length and body weight showed significant differences between years and gender. The oldest squid was collected in 2016 at 271 days old, further proving that O. bartramii has nearly a 1-year life span. The hatching season ranged from December to May and the peak hatching time in 2015 was one-half month later than in 2012 and 2016. Growth rates varied with environmental factors such as sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a concentration (chl. a), indicating that higher SST and chl. a concentrations led to faster growth. An extreme El Niño event with lower SST in 2015 also led to younger age class and slower growth rates. The occurrence of differences in body size and growth rates between years, caused by the interannual variations of environmental factors, makes it necessary to use separate growth curves for different years when analyzing North Pacific O. Bartramii populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent (WSTCC), anchored by the western subtropical front (WSTF), varies from seasonal to multidecadal time scales and affects the climate variability in the North Pacific. However, conflicting views exist for physical mechanisms of the decadal to multidecadal variability of the WSTF/WSTCC. While many previous studies attribute the WSTF/WSTCC decadal variability to the anomalous wind forcing by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, by synthesizing observations, reanalysis products and the pre‐industrial model simulation experiment, the present study demonstrates that they are controlled by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) through the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) variability. The AMO induced decadal temperature and volume anomalies of the STMW are stored in the subsurface ocean through the subduction process south of the Kuroshio Extension. Then these anomalies propagate southwestward along the thermocline circulation and reaches the northern flank of the WSTCC in about 5 years. During the AMO‐positive phase, the anomalous warm and thin STMW flattens the upper thermocline, reduces the meridional temperature gradient and weakens the WSTF intensity, lagging 5 years behind the AMO index. Subsequently, the WSTCC decreases and moves southward, and vice versa for the AMO‐negative phase. Our results provide a potential predictability for the WSTF and WSTCC decadal to multidecadal variability and are important for the North Pacific climate change and the biogeochemical processes. Plain Language Summary: The North Pacific subtropical countercurrent (STCC) is a shallow eastward jet stretching from the western Pacific to the north of Hawaii, accompanied by the subtropical front (STF) in the upper 200 m. Specifically, the western branch (western North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent [WSTCC] and western subtropical front [WSTF]) is much stronger and broader than the eastern part. Decadal to multidecadal variability of the WSTCC and WSTF is known to have significant effects on the North Pacific climate change and biogeochemical processes. However, conflicting views exist for physical mechanisms of the decadal to multidecadal variability of the WSTF/WSTCC. While many previous studies attribute the WSTF/WSTCC decadal to multidecadal variability to the anomalous wind forcing by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the present study demonstrates that they are controlled by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) through the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) variability. The STMW anomalies caused by the AMO are stored in the subsurface ocean and would propagate southwestward along the circulation, reach the WSTF/WSTCC region in about 5 years and influence the current's decadal to multidecadal variations. Our results provide a potential predictability for the WSTF and WSTCC variability on decadal to multidecadal time scales and are important for the North Pacific climate change and the biogeochemical processes. Key Points: The decadal‐multidecadal variation of the western North Pacific subtropical front and countercurrent is controlled by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)The AMO modulates the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) variability, which controls the upper pycnocline slope and dominates the intensity of the countercurrentIt takes ∼5 years for the STMW to reach the countercurrent region, corresponding to the time lag of the frontal changes with the AMO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The out of phase tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific associated with local low-level wind vorticity anomaly, driven by the remote central and eastern equatorial Pacific warming/cooling, is investigated based on the reanalysis and observational data in the period of 1979−2017. TC frequencies in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific appear to be connected to different remote heating/cooling sources and are linked to eastern and central Pacific warming/cooling, which are in turn related to canonical El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki, respectively. TCs formed in subtropics (SfTC) are generally found to be associated with a dipole in wind vorticity anomaly, which is driven by the tropical eastern Pacific warming/cooling. Tropically formed TCs (TfTC) are seen to be triggered by the single-core of wind vorticity anomaly locally associated with the warming/cooling of central and eastern Pacific. The predicted ENSOs and ENSO Modokis, therefore, provide a potential source of seasonal predictability for SfTC and TfTC frequencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the mechanisms of interannual and decadal variability of dissolved oxygen (O2) in the North Pacific using historical observations and a hindcast simulation using the Community Earth System Model. The simulated variability of upper ocean (200 m) O2 is moderately correlated with observations where sampling density is relatively high. The dominant mode of O2 variability explains 24.8% of the variance and is significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index (r = 0.68). Two primary mechanisms are hypothesized by which the PDO controls upper ocean O2 variability. Vertical movement of isopycnals ("heave") drives O2 variations in the deep tropics; isopycnal surfaces are depressed in the eastern tropics under the positive (El Niño‐like) phase of PDO, leading to O2 increases in the upper water column. In contrast to the tropics, changes in subduction are the primary control on extratropical O2 variability. These hypotheses are tested by contrasting O2 anomalies with the heave‐induced component of variability calculated from potential density anomalies. Isopycnal heave is the leading control on O2 variability in the tropics, but heave alone cannot fully explain the amplitude of tropical O2 variability, likely indicating reinforcing changes from the biological O2 consumption. Midlatitude O2 variability indeed reflects ocean ventilation downstream of the subduction region where O2 anomalies are correlated with the depth of winter mixed layer. These mechanisms, synchronized with the PDO, yield a basin‐scale pattern of O2 variability that are comparable in magnitude to the projected rates of ocean deoxygenation in this century under "unchecked" emission scenario. Plain Language Summary: In the North Pacific, oxygen levels in the seawater show large‐scale patterns associated with the regional climate on the timescales of years to decades. We used a computational model of circulation and cycling of elements in the ocean to simulate these changes for the last approximately 70 years. Our aim is to better understand what causes these changes. First, the climate shifts can move large volume of seawater up and down in the ocean and redistribute dissolved oxygen due to the large‐scale water movement. Second, the climate shifts can alter the rate at which oxygen‐rich surface waters can mix into the subsurface ocean. We found that both mechanisms are important, but they occur in different regions; the first mechanism is particularly important in the tropics, and the second mechanism dominates in the subtropics. We further found that the climate‐driven changes in the biological processes tend to reinforce the physically driven oxygen changes of the tropics. These insights can help better understand and interpret existing and future observations of oxygen changes. Key Points: Two hypotheses are proposed for upper ocean oxygen variability that is synchronized with the Pacific Decadal OscillationTropical variability is primarily controlled by the heave of isopycnal surfaces, while the subtropics are controlled by the ventilationHistoric observations and a numerical model suggest additional, amplifying mechanisms that enhance tropical oxygen variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to propose a novel prediction scheme of tropical cyclone frequency (TCF) over the Western North Pacific (WNP). We concerned the large-scale meteorological factors inclusive of the sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, the Niño-3.4 index, the wind shear, the vorticity, the subtropical high, and the sea ice cover, since the chronic change of these factors in the context of climate change would cause a gradual variation of the annual TCF. Specifically, we focus on the correlation between the year-to-year increment of these factors and TCF. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) method was used for variable selection and dimension reduction from 11 initial predictors. Then, a prediction model based on random forest (RF) was established by using the training samples (1978-2011) for calibration and the testing samples (2012-2016) for validation. The RF model presents a major variation and trend of TCF in the period of calibration, and also fitted well with the observed TCF in the period of validation though there were some deviations. The leave-one-out cross validation of the model exhibited most of the predicted TCF are in consistence with the observed TCF with a high correlation coefficient. A comparison between results of the RF model and the multiple linear regression (MLR) model suggested the RF is more practical and capable of giving reliable results of TCF prediction over the WNP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The meridional geostrophic transport (MGT) in the interior tropical North Pacific Ocean is estimated based on global ocean heat and salt content data. The decadal variations of the zonally and vertically integrated MGT in the tropical North Pacific Ocean are found to precede the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) by 1–3 years. The dynamics of the MGT are analyzed based on Sverdrup theory. It is found that the total meridional transport variability (MGT plus Ekman) is dominated by the MGT variability having positive correlations with the PDO index. The Sverdrup transports differ from the total meridional transport significantly and have insignificant correlations with PDO index, suggesting that the MGT variability is not controlled by the Sverdrup dynamics. In comparison, the simulated meridional transport variability in the models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator are dominated by the Sverdrup transports, having insignificant correlations with the simulated PDO indices. The comparison suggests that the non-Sverdrup component in the MGT is important for the predictability of PDO and that significant deficiencies exist in these models in simulating a realistic structure of the tropical ocean gyre variability and predicting the decadal climate variations associated with it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kelp forests and the many vital ecosystem services they provide are threatened as the severity of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors continues to mount. Particularly in the North Pacific, sea surface temperature is warming and glacial melt is decreasing salinity. This study explored the resiliency of early life-history stages of these foundation species through a factorial laboratory experiment. The effects of rising sea surface temperature under low salinity conditions on kelp spore settlement and initial gametophyte growth in Eualaria fistulosa, Nereocystis luetkeana, and Saccharina latissima were investigated. Decreased settlement and growth were observed in these species at elevated temperatures and at low salinity. Eualaria fistulosa spores and gametophytes were the most negatively impacted, compared to the more widely distributed N. luetkeana and S. latissima. These results suggest that N. luetkeana and S. latissima could potentially outperform E. fistulosa under projected conditions. However, despite decreased performance among all species, our findings indicate that these species are largely resilient to temperature changes when exposed to a low salinity, even when the temperature changes are immediate and extreme. By exploring how early life-history stages of several key kelp species are impacted by dual stressors, this research enhances our understanding of how kelp forests will respond to projected and extreme changes in temperature when already stressed by low salinity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Pacific exhibits patterns of low-frequency variability on the intra-annual to decadal time scales, which manifest themselves in both model data and the observational record, and prediction of such low-frequency modes of variability is of great interest to the community. While parametric models, such as stationary and non-stationary autoregressive models, possibly including external factors, may perform well in a data-fitting setting, they may perform poorly in a prediction setting. Ensemble analog forecasting, which relies on the historical record to provide estimates of the future based on past trajectories of those states similar to the initial state of interest, provides a promising, nonparametric approach to forecasting that makes no assumptions on the underlying dynamics or its statistics. We apply such forecasting to low-frequency modes of variability for the North Pacific sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration fields extracted through Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis, an algorithm which produces clean time-scale separation from data without pre-filtering. We find such methods may outperform parametric methods and simple persistence with increased predictive skill, and are more skillful when initialized in an active phase, rather than a quiescent phase. We also apply these methods to the predict integrated sea ice extent anomalies in the North Pacific from both models and observations, and find an increase of predictive skill over the persistence forecast by about 2 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The interdecadal changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone ( TC) genesis in the western North Pacific ( WNP) were examined for the epoch 1979-2013. There was an interdecadal increase in the frequency of TC genesis in the WNP in May during 1999-2013 than during 1979-1998, and such changes differed from those occurring between June and December. This interdecadal change is attributed to the early onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon ( SCSSM) during 1999-2013, when the southwesterly winds spread eastwards and the monsoon trough ( MT) moved into the WNP earlier. The MT favoured enhanced convection and anomalous low-level cyclonic vorticity, facilitating more TC genesis. During 1979-1998, in contrast, the onset of the SCSSM was delayed and the MT was confined to the west of the South China Sea. As a result, weakened convection and anomalous anticyclonic low-level vorticity are observed over the WNP, facilitating less TC genesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific ocean-atmosphere system exerts an important influence on the climate of Asia and North America, but the limited length of the observational record prevents a complete understanding of its bidecadal and multidecadal time scales. Paleoclimate reconstructions provide one source of information on longer time scales, although they differ in their estimation of the behavior of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) prior to the instrumental period. Forced general circulation model simulations offer complementary long-term perspectives on both the history and dynamics of this important mode of variability. Here, we analyze the PDO in the ensemble of CMIP5/PMIP3 last millennium (past1000 + historical) simulations. We evaluate the modeled spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics of this mode, as well as teleconnections between North Pacific variability and global climate. All models produce a mode of North Pacific variability over the last millennium with spatial patterns and spectral power density similar to observations. CCSM, FGOALS, and IPSL best reproduce observed spatial patterns, spectral characteristics, and teleconnections to terrestrial regions used in paleoclimate proxy reconstructions. In these simulations, the PDO shows no consistent response to solar or volcanic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the possible linkage between the monsoon trough and the interannual variability of the activity of westward-propagating tropical waves (WTW) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during July-November for the period 1979-2007. It is shown that the interannual variability of WTW activity is closely related to the location of the monsoon trough. During the years when the enhanced (weakened) monsoon trough extends eastward (retreats westward), the lower-tropospheric WTW activity is above (below) normal within the southeastern quadrant of the WNP. Furthermore, this study evaluates different wave structures and dynamics of two types of WTWs, equatorial Rossby (ER) waves and mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG)-tropical depression (TD)-type waves, in strong monsoon trough (S-MT) and weak monsoon trough (W-MT) years over the WNP. There is a significant change in the three-dimensional structure as those waves propagate westward to the east of the monsoon trough. For the TD-MRG waves, an apparent transition from MRG waves to off-equatorial TD disturbances is identified in the region of the monsoon trough. For the ER waves, their amplitudes have a faster growth, but their structures and propagation characters have no marked change. Differences in the location of the monsoon trough may lead to an east-west contrast in the WTWs. In a companion study (Part II), diagnostics of energetics and numerical experiments are conducted to explain the observed results in the present study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) is a measurable metric calculated by the summation of ocean heat content from the surface down to the depth of the 26 °C isotherm. TCHP calculated by the Meteorological Research Institute multivariate ocean variational estimation (MOVE) system is verified by using TCHP based on in situ observations by profiling floats during 2002-2012. After the verification, the threshold of MOVE-based TCHP before the passage of a tropical cyclone (TC) favorable for triggering TC deepening is determined by best-track central pressure drops for the nearest 6 hours from 1985 to 2012. The threshold is specified as the minimum range of TCHP when the ratio of the number of records for TC deepening to the total best-track number of records in a TCHP bin is significantly greater than the reference ratio determined for each domain at a significance level of 0.05. The threshold is relatively low (40-60 kJ cm) around 5-10°N, west of 120°E and east of 140°E, whereas it is relatively high (80-100 kJ cm) around 15-20°N. Around 5-10°N, the ratio for each moving speed shows two peaks: with moving speeds of 3-5 and 7-9 m s. The former case is exemplified by Typhoon Mike (1990) under relatively low TCHP (< 80 kJ cm), whereas the latter case is exemplified by Typhoon Haiyan (2013), which is more rapidly intensified and reaches a lower minimum central pressure under relatively high TCHP (>120 kJ cm). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in ocean surface waves elicit a variety of impacts on coastal environments. To assess the future changes in the ocean surface wave climate, several future projections of global wave climate have been simulated in previous studies. However, previously there has been little discussion about the causes behind changes in the future wave climate and the differences between projections. The objective of this study is to estimate the future changes in mean wave climate and the sensitivity of the wave climate to sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in an effort to understand the mechanism behind the wave climate changes by specifically looking at spatial SST variation. A series of wave climate projections forced by surface winds from the MRI-AGCM3.2 were conducted based on SST ensemble experiments. The results yield future changes in annual mean wave height that are within about ±0.3 m. The future changes in summertime wave height in the western North Pacific (WNP), which are influenced by tropical cyclone changes, are highly sensitive to SST conditions. To generalize the result, the wave climate change and SST relation found by this study was compared with multimodel wave ensemble products from the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP). The spatial variation of SST in the tropical Pacific Ocean is a major factor in the wave climate changes for the WNP during summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change-driven alterations in Arctic environments can influence habitat availability, species distributions and interactions, and the breeding, foraging, and health of marine mammals. Phocine distemper virus (PDV), which has caused extensive mortality in Atlantic seals, was confirmed in sea otters in the North Pacific Ocean in 2004, raising the question of whether reductions in sea ice could increase contact between Arctic and sub-Arctic marine mammals and lead to viral transmission across the Arctic Ocean. Using data on PDV exposure and infection and animal movement in sympatric seal, sea lion, and sea otter species sampled in the North Pacific Ocean from 2001–2016, we investigated the timing of PDV introduction, risk factors associated with PDV emergence, and patterns of transmission following introduction. We identified widespread exposure to and infection with PDV across the North Pacific Ocean beginning in 2003 with a second peak of PDV exposure and infection in 2009; viral transmission across sympatric marine mammal species; and association of PDV exposure and infection with reductions in Arctic sea ice extent. Peaks of PDV exposure and infection following 2003 may reflect additional viral introductions among the diverse marine mammals in the North Pacific Ocean linked to change in Arctic sea ice extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interbasin interactions have been increasingly emphasized in recent years due to their roles in shaping climate trends and the global warming hiatus in the northern hemisphere. The profound influence from the North Atlantic on the Tropical Pacific has been a primary focus. In this study, we conducted observational analyses and numerical modeling experiments to show that the North Atlantic has also strongly influenced the Extratropical North Pacific. A rapid and synchronous change in the atmospheric and oceanic circulations was observed in the North Pacific during the late 1990s. The change was driven by the transbasin influence from the Atlantic Ocean. During the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) since the 1990s, the anomalously warm North Atlantic triggers a series of zonally symmetric and asymmetric transbasin teleconnections involving the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Walker and Hadley circulations, and Rossby wave propagation that lead to a decrease in wind stress curls over the Pacific subtropics, resulting in an abrupt weakening in the North Pacific subtropical gyre (NPSG) and the Kuroshio Current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]