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Vulnerability to climate change is highly dynamic, varying between and within communities over different timescales. This paper draws upon complex adaptive systems thinking to develop an approach for capturing, understanding, and monitoring climate vulnerability in a case study from northern Canada, focusing on Inuit food systems. In the community of Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, we followed 10 hunters over a 2-year period, asking them to document their harvesting activities and discuss their lived experience of harvesting under changing environmental and societal conditions. GPS monitoring and participatory mapping sessions were used to document 23,996km of trails (n = 409), with conversational bi-weekly semi-structured interviews and secondary instrumental weather data used to contextualise climate change within a nexus of other socioeconomic, cultural, and political stressors that also affect harvesting. Our results demonstrate that climate change has considerable potential to affect harvesting activities, particularly when its impacts manifest as anomalous/extreme events. However, climate change impacts are not necessarily the most salient issues affecting harvesting on a day-to-day basis. Instead, factors relating to economics (particularly financial capital and the wage-based economy), social networks, and institutions are found to have a greater influence, either as standalone factors with cascading effects or when acting synchronously to augment the impacts of environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the authors of current bridge management systems (BMSs) have noted the need for expanding the systems to include more functional aspects of bridge performance, to date no method has been proposed for the incorporation of bridge rating against climate change impacts. This paper presents a new procedure for extending the asset management scope for highway bridges to incorporate the bridges' resilience or vulnerability against climate change impacts. The proposed procedure draws from the projected demands of climate change--a worldwide phenomenon that is expected to produce its most dramatic impacts in cold regions. The following bridge resilience indicators are proposed: abutment washout, pier scour, abutment erosion, deck flooding, and abutment permafrost stability. The formulations for the proposed indicators require weights to be assigned to each indicator. The other requirement comprises capacity measures that indicate how well a bridge is equipped to withstand the projected climatic effects. The new procedure has been applied to 14 highway bridges in the Canadian Arctic to demonstrate how public investments in transportation infrastructure could be better managed and protected. The method comes with an Inspection Form that transportation agencies and their bridge inspectors can use for rating bridges on climate change resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mackenzie River is a major transportation route serving many remote northern Canadian communities and mining sites. The river is only navigable during the summer and early fall, when clear of ice. However, the river’s water conditions have changed significantly in recent years, and are expected to continue to do so, resulting in increased uncertainty for waterway transport. This paper presents a model for providing guidance to shipping companies, customers, and government on how shipping patterns may need to evolve to effectively adapt to changing climate conditions. Future freight volumes are forecasted using time series analysis. Then, logistics cost optimization is used to incorporate predicted water flow profile changes in shipping companies’ future delivery schedule planning. Results indicate that future waterway freight delivery capacities in September and October may be insufficient to transport forecasted volumes, and shipping companies may be advised to arrange for increased delivery activities in June and July. If delivery capacities are constrained by equipment and crew availability rather than water conditions in the first half of the shipping season, shipping companies may also need to take advantage of earlier anticipated ice breakup to begin the delivery season earlier. Incorporating this method for climate change adaptation in freight schedule planning may aid both shipping companies and government agencies in rethinking current practices. The method is particularly suitable for a region where harsh environmental conditions, climate change, and extreme remoteness have an overwhelming impact on operations, and logistical delays are considered quite differently from supply chains further south. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming in regions of ice‐rich permafrost can result in widespread thermokarst development, which reconfigures the landscape and damages infrastructure. We present multisite time series observations which couple ground temperature measurements with thermokarst development in a region of very cold permafrost. In the Canadian High Arctic between 2003 and 2016, a series of anomalously warm summers caused mean thawing indices to be 150–240% above the 1979–2000 normal resulting in up to 90 cm of subsidence over the 12‐year observation period. Our data illustrate that despite low mean annual ground temperatures, very cold permafrost (<−10 °C) with massive ground ice close to the surface is highly vulnerable to rapid permafrost degradation and thermokarst development. We suggest that this is due to little thermal buffering from soil organic layers and near‐surface vegetation, and the presence of near‐surface ground ice. Observed maximum thaw depths at our sites are already exceeding those projected to occur by 2090 under representative concentration pathway version 4.5. Plain Language Summary: Permafrost is ground that remains at or below 0 °C for two years or longer and it underlies much of the Arctic. Permafrost in Arctic lowland regions is frequently characterized by large volumes of ground ice which, when it melts, causes the ground surface to collapse. As the Arctic warms, ice‐rich permafrost degradation is expected to be widespread. Our data illustrate that very cold permafrost, which has a mean annual ground temperature of −10 °C or lower, is experiencing a rapid increase in active layer thickness at annual time scales. At three permafrost monitoring sites in the Canadian Arctic we have observed that warmer than average summer air temperatures have caused the active layer to deepen, near‐surface ground ice to melt, and the overlying ground surface to subside, in some cases leading to the formation of small thaw ponds. Our results show that very cold permafrost terrain is responding rapidly to ongoing warming. Key Points: Observed thermokarst development in very cold permafrost at three monitoring sites along a 700‐km transect in the Canadian High ArcticRapid landscape response to above average summer warmth is due to limited thermal buffering from overlying ecosystem components and near‐surface ground iceChange was greatest at Mould Bay where thawing index values were 240% above historic normals causing ~90 cm of subsidence in 12 years [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first known ampeliscid (Amphipoda: Ampeliscidae) bed for the Canadian Arctic was reported in 2013 from the Canadian Beaufort Shelf (CBS), but species patterns were not examined. This study examines their distributions relative to differences in life strategies and environmental variables. The intent is to build a better understanding of this highly productive system in comparison with ampeliscid beds in the neighboring Bering and Chukchi Seas which are important resources for higher trophic level consumers. Data from 412 samples collected to 1000 m depth over 2002-2009 indicate that there are at least eight ampeliscid species on the CBS. Five occur elsewhere in polar and temperate latitudes and three may be new to science or are species complexes. All are limited to bottom temperatures < 0.41 °C. Congeners do not distribute coherently (Similarity Profiles analysis, p < 0.05). Resource-demanding Ampelisca macrocephala (max. 8467 ind. m−2) dominates Byblis spp. and Haploops laevis on the shelf enriched by wind-driven upwelling but dominance switches with depth to Haploops tubicola, Haploops sibirica and Haploops sp. Obligate suspension feeding with adaptations for fine particle capture enables deep living while abundance dominants supplement their diets with deposit feeding and predation. The ampeliscids may facilitate other amphipods by providing attachment sites on their tubes. Polychaetes may facilitate the ampeliscids by bringing buried resources to the surface. Given that the CBS is undergoing substantial environmental change, we recommend the CBS ampeliscids for monitoring its environmental regime to complement ongoing monitoring in other polar and temperate ampeliscid beds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the form of precipitation have a considerable impact on the Arctic cryosphere and ecological system by influencing the energy balance and surface runoff. In this study, station observations and ERA-Interim data were used to analyze changes in the rainfall to precipitation ratio (RPR) in northern Canada during the spring-summer season (March-July) from 1979-2015. Our results indicate that ERA-Interim describes the spring-summer variations and trends in temperature and the RPR well. Both the spring-summer mean temperature [0.4°C-1°C (10 yr)-1] and the RPR [2%-6% (10 yr)-1] increased significantly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1979-2015. Moreover, we suggest that, aside from the contribution of climate warming, the North Atlantic Oscillation is probably another key factor influencing temporal and spatial differences in the RPR over northern Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the framework of developing a global modeling system which can facilitate modeling studies on Arctic Ocean and high- to midlatitude linkage, we evaluate the Arctic Ocean simulated by the multi-resolution Finite Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM). To explore the value of using high horizontal resolution for Arctic Ocean modeling, we use two global meshes differing in the horizontal resolution only in the Arctic Ocean (24 km vs. 4.5 km). The high resolution significantly improves the model's representation of the Arctic Ocean. The most pronounced improvement is in the Arctic intermediate layer, in terms of both Atlantic Water (AW) mean state and variability. The deepening and thickening bias of the AW layer, a common issue found in coarse-resolution simulations, is significantly alleviated by using higher resolution. The topographic steering of the AW is stronger and the seasonal and interannual temperature variability along the ocean bottom topography is enhanced in the high-resolution simulation. The high resolution also improves the ocean surface circulation, mainly through a better representation of the narrow straits in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). The representation of CAA throughflow not only influences the release of water masses through the other gateways but also the circulation pathways inside the Arctic Ocean. However, the mean state and variability of Arctic freshwater content and the variability of freshwater transport through the Arctic gateways appear not to be very sensitive to the increase in resolution employed here. By highlighting the issues that are independent of model resolution, we address that other efforts including the improvement of parameterizations are still required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow and ice over land are important hydrological resources and sensitive indicators of climate change. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset at 250-m spatial resolution generated at the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS) is used to derive the annual minimum snow and ice (MSI) extent over the Canadian Arctic landmass over a 17-yr time span (2000-16). The smallest MSI extent (1.53 × 105 km2) was observed in 2012, the largest (2.09 × 105 km2) was observed in 2013; the average value was 1.70 × 105 km2. Several reanalyses and observational datasets are assessed to explain the derived MSI variations: the ERA-Interim reanalysis, North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiative fluxes, and European Space Agency's GlobSnow dataset. Comparison with the Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) showed two important facts: 1) the semipermanent snowpack in the Canadian Arctic that persists through the entire melting season is a significant component relative to the ice caps and glacier-covered areas (up to 36% or 5.583104 km2), and 2) the MSI variations are related to variations in the local climate dynamics such as warm season average temperature, energy fluxes, and snow cover. The correlation coefficients (absolute values) can be as high as 0.77. The reanalysis-based MSI estimates agree with satellite MSI results (average bias of 2.2 × 103 km2 or 1.3% of the mean value). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is a global hotspot of climate change, which is impacting the livelihoods of remote Inuit communities. We conduct a longitudinal assessment of climate change vulnerability drawing upon fieldwork conducted in 2004 and 2015 in Ikpiarjuk (Arctic Bay), Nunavut, and focusing on risks associated with subsistence harvesting activities. Specifically, we employ the same conceptual and methodological approach to identify and characterize who is vulnerable, to what stresses, and why, assessing how this has changed over time, including re-interviewing individuals involved in the original study. We find similarities between the two periods, with many of the observed environmental changes documented in 2004 having accelerated over the last decade, exacerbating risks of land use: changing sea ice regimes and wind patterns are the most widely documented at both times, with new observations reporting more frequent sighting of polar bear and orca. Socio-economic and technological changes have altered the context in climate change impacts are being experienced and responded to, both exacerbating and moderating vulnerabilities compared to 2004. The adoption of new technology, including GPS and widespread use of the internet, has helped land users manage changing conditions while sharing networks remain strong, despite concern noted in the 2004 study that they were weakening. Challenges around access to financial resources and concern over the incomplete transmission of some environmental knowledge and land skills to younger generations continue to increase sensitivity and limit adaptive capacity to changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reduction in sea ice due to climate change is expected to have a negative impact on habitat availability for Arctic marine fishes and induce range expansion of species from southern environments. Such an effect will likely be observed in the abundance of polar cod, Boreogadus saida (Lepechin, 1774), as well as interspecific interactions of this intermediate-level trophic taxon, particularly in more southerly fringing seas in the Arctic. Polar cod and capelin, Mallotus villosus (Müller, 1776), are pelagic, planktivorous forage fishes, which occupy similar dietary niches and are the primary prey of marine predators. Co-occurring polar cod and capelin were collected at seven stations in Darnley Bay, NT, during August 2013. Standard length (SL), used as a proxy for age, suggested that polar cod (mean ± 1 SD: 71.1 ± 10.3 mm) were predominantly age 1+ and capelin (96.2 ± 13.4 mm) were mostly age 2+. Stomach content analyses indicated that both species feed extensively on calanoid copepods ( Calanus hyperboreus, C. glacialis, Metridia longa) and amphipods ( Themisto libellula). There was high dietary overlap between capelin and polar cod, evidenced by Schoener's index (0.80). Additionally the quantity of dietary items, biomass and energetic content consumed differed among size classes in both capelin (SL, 70.5-132.0 mm) and polar cod (SL, 42.1-114.4 mm). This study illustrates that the diets of these sympatric forage fishes in an Arctic ecosystem are very similar, indicating a high potential for interspecific competition as the sub-Arctic capelin expands its range into Arctic regions with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation readiness is proposed as a complimentary concept to adaptive capacity that captures the strength and existence of governance structures and policy processes which determine whether adaptation takes place. As such, adaptation readiness is concerned with examining actual experiences with planning for adaptation and seeks to characterize whether human systems are prepared and ready to 'do adaptation.' We propose a framework for evaluating readiness, identifying 6 overarching factors essential for adaptation taking place: political leadership, institutional organization, adaptation decision making and stakeholder engagement, availability of usable science, funding for adaptation, and public support for adaptation. For each readiness factor we identify potential indicators, data sources, and considerations for analysis, outlining approaches for quantitative scoring and qualitative examination. We briefly illustrate application of the framework using an example from the territory of Nunavut in the Canadian Arctic, a region projected to experience some of the most dramatic changes in climate globally this century. The framework provides a systematic approach for assessing adaptation readiness, and can be used - in combination with other approaches - to inform the identification and prioritization of adaptation support, guide resources to areas where need is greatest, and serve as a proxy for adaptation tracking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong evidence for a pan-Arctic expansion of upright shrubs comes from analysis of satellite imagery, historical photographs, vegetation plots, and growth rings. However, there are still uncertainties related to local-scale patterns of shrub growth, resulting interactions among vegetation functional groups, and the relative roles of disturbance and climate as drivers of observed change. Here, we present evidence that widespread and rapid shrub expansion and lichen declines over a 15,000 km area of the western Canadian Arctic have been driven by regional increases in temperature. Using 30 m resolution Landsat satellite imagery and high resolution repeat color-infrared aerial photographs, we show that 85% of the land surface has a positive 1985-2011 trend ( P < 0.05) in NDVI, making this one of the most intensely greening regions in the Arctic. Strong positive trends (>0.03 NDVI/decade) occurred consistently across all landscape positions and most vegetation types. Comparison of 208, 1:2,000 scale vertical air photo pairs from 1980 and 2013 clearly shows that this greening was driven by increased canopy cover of erect dwarf and tall shrubs, with declines in terricolous lichen cover. Disturbances caused by wildfires, exploratory gas wells, and drained lakes all produced strong, yet localized increases in NDVI due to shrub growth. Our analysis also shows that a 4°C winter temperature increase over the past 30 years, leading to warmer soils and enhanced nutrient mineralization provides the best explanation for observed vegetation change. These observations thus provide early corroboration for modeling studies predicting large-scale vegetation shifts in low-Arctic ecosystems from climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Northern Canada, climate change has led to many acute and interrelated health and environmental impacts experienced among Inuit populations. Community-based monitoring, in which community members participate in monitoring initiatives using various forms of technology, is a key strategy increasingly used to detect, monitor and respond to climate change impacts. To better understand the landscape of existing environmental and health monitoring programmes mobilising different technologies and operating in the North we conducted a review that used environmental scan methodologies to explore and contextualise these programmes. We consulted with academic researchers with experience in community-led monitoring, conducted systematic searches of grey and peer-reviewed literature, and conducted a secondary search for environment-health mobile-phone applications. Following specific criteria, we identified 18 monitoring programmes using information and communication technologies in the North, and three global monitoring mobile-phone applications, which cumulatively monitored 74 environment and health indicators. Several themes emerged, including the need for: (1) community leadership, (2) indicators of environment and/or human health and (3) innovative technology. This synthesis supports the development of community-led, environment-health monitoring programmes that use innovative technology to monitor and share information related to the health implications of climate change in and around Indigenous communities throughout the Circumpolar North. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]