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Scholars have observed the need to better understand the role of emotion in the issue of climate change, as well as to better convey the relationship between climate and other global crises. This article takes up these two positions, investigating the way social media facilitates affective connections between climate and other global risks. Using Twitter data from three global events – Covid, the 2020 U.S. presidential race, and the Russia–Ukraine war – the study examines how users connect climate change to each event. Placing these discussions in the context of online issue publics and ecocriticism, the paper examines the way users employ affect to connect these events to climate change. The paper uses a quantitatively driven qualitative approach, combining computational methods with a thematic analysis of affective expressions. Interestingly, sentiment was not universally negative, and the qualitative findings further suggest that users combine emotions in contradictory ways, expressed through the themes Weary Zealotry, The Hope–Disgust Dialectic, Climate as Proto-Disaster, Idiots and Enemies, and Global Solidarity. It is argued that a modified version of Beck's 'imagined communities of global risk' provides a framework for the role of affect in people's relationship to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detailed palaeogeographical studies of the accumulative fan in the Serteyka River valley in W Russia and underlying biogenic deposits were carried out. The base of a representative core of biogenic sediments in the distal zone is dated to 1291 BC, while its top to 1631 AD. In this paper, palynological, plant macrofossils, Chironomide and Cladocera, geochemical, geochronological and sedimentological analysis were performed. Four phases of biogenic deposition were distinguished by pollen and geochemical analyses. Two of them coincide with the climatic fluctuation during Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age. During the formation of the fan, overbank deposits were accumulated also, indicating numerous and intense floods, which are in line with the trend observed for other sites in this region. The accumulative fan is formed by lower, middle and upper deluvia and agricultural diamicton in its top. All units have specific sedimentological and geochemical features as well as low admixture of plant macrofossils. The beginning of the formation of this relief form dates back to the second half of the 17th century AD, and the end of the accumulation falls on the second half of the 18th century AD. Our work suggests that natural conditions had an impact on the formation and development of studied accumulative fan, however, the decisive factor causing the intensification of the slope processes were related with deforestation resulted from strong human impact, which was marked in palynological and macrofossils analyses (e.g. increase in the contribution of plants macrofossils related to agriculture). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Almost all Middle Eastern nations now struggle with malnutrition and allocate a significant portion of their oil earnings to food. In addition to already challenging and changing climate and water pressure, ongoing conflict and the war atmosphere, poverty, a lack of purchasing power, and pandemic diseases in the region all seem to play a role. However, the deepening of Russia's conflicts with Ukraine in recent years has made matters worse for the hungry in this fragile region and placed even self-sufficient nations in a precarious position. This paper addresses the Black Sea Grain Corridor Initiative, which was implemented through diplomatic measures hosted by Türkiye and guaranteed the secure transportation of Ukrainian grain to international markets. The study begins with a thorough discussion of the origins and effects of food insecurity in Middle Eastern countries. The second part examines the impact of this initiative on regional politics. To address the current issue, an integrated approach built on comprehension of cause-and-effect interactions has been implemented. The findings were gathered using a data collection technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors explore the trends in the human health risks caused by air pollution and changing levels of weather and climate comfort on the territory of Russia in 2020–2050 under two climate change scenarios. Generally, the dynamics of risks is expected to be moderate. It will presumably be characterized by inter-scenario variability and dispersion by the country's climate zones. In certain areas, primarily in Siberia, very noticeable trends have been revealed. The paper shows a need for additional attention when planning the measures of adaptation to climate change in southern and central regions of European Russia, most of Western Siberia, the Magadan oblast and Kamchatka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The paper presents the results of a study of spatiotemporal variability of the characteristics of the wind field in the free atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere in the SEVIRI radiometer field of view of European geostationary meteorological satellites of the second generation Meteosat 8–Meteosat 11 in the time interval 2007–2021. It is noted that the maximum wind speeds, as well as the maximum average monthly and seasonal anomalies of the wind speed modulus, are observed over the Atlantic. A feature of the temporal variability of the area-averaged wind speed modulus is revealed, which consists in a change in the sign of the trend at the turn of 2015–2017 from positive to negative. At the same time, positive linear trends in the time intervals from 2007 to the points of a change in the sign of the trend over the Atlantic, the entire region under consideration and Eurasia, including the European territory of the Russian Federation, are significantly different from zero with a probability of more than 95% and the negative trend is significant only over the Atlantic. A high correlation was noted in the area of seasonal wind speed variations with the area of Arctic sea ice and temperature characteristics of the troposphere at levels of 500 and 200 hPa. Based on the analysis of the relationship between wind speed variability and the main climatic characteristics and large-scale atmospheric processes, a scheme is proposed for the effect of the accelerating reduction in the area of Arctic sea ice associated with global warming on wind speed in the free atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has already caused large amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and will continue to do so for manyyears after hostilities have ceased mainly because of the emissions linked to the rebuilding of destroyed or damaged housing, public buildings, infrastructure, factories, and the like. My aim in this paper is to discuss how in a time of climate emergency such emissions of war should impact the political morality of states initiating, continuing, and ending war (through a just and enduring peace) as understood by just war theory (JWT). My point of departure is a study by Lennard de Klerk and six co-authors detailing the emissions of the first year of the Russo-Ukrainian war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transition to a new reference period of 1991–2020 requires updating the estimates of agroclimatic resources in agricultural regions. The paper summarizes the results of the annual monitoring of agroclimatic conditions over 1961–1990 and 1991–2020 obtained by both the statistical analysis and the Climate–Soil–Yield simulation system and provides their comparative evaluation. It has been noted that along with growing aridity of the most fertile areas of the steppe and forest-steppe zones, there is an almost universal growth of spring precipitation, which compensates to some extent the negative impact of high summer temperatures on the yield. A significant decrease in the climate-driven productivity of spring wheat from the period of 1961–1990 to the new reference period of 1991–2020 has been revealed for the main grain-producing regions. Estimates of productivity trends for major grain crops, spring and winter wheat, are given in connection with climate change and the development of agricultural technologies. Estimates of changes in the wintering indices and sown areas for winter wheat are also given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overview of papers dealing with the analysis of current and future climate change on the territory of Russia and their impact on the crop productivity is presented. Using the reanalysis data for 1950–2020, trends in air temperature and precipitation are estimated for different regions of Russia. A correlation was found between changes in temperature and atmospheric circulation indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is rapidly warming posing a significant threat to underlying permafrost. Permafrost degradation has already resulted in extensive damage to the Arctic's built infrastructure, putting communities and industries at risk. Projected climate warming will further reduce the capacity of permafrost to support infrastructure, thereby requiring a rethinking of construction and development of permafrost regions in the future. This paper focuses on three Arctic regions with a substantial presence of population and infrastructure on permafrost: USA (Alaska), Canada, and Russia. The three regions' permafrost construction practices are examined in order to identify best practices and major gaps. We identify a lack of standardized, codified construction guidelines; an absence of permafrost-geotechnical monitoring in communities; barriers to integrating climate scenarios into future planning; limited data sharing; and low numbers of permafrost professionals as major constraints limiting the region's resilience in the face of climate change. Refining building practices and standards, implementing operational permafrost monitoring systems, developing downscaled climate projections, and integrating local knowledge will minimize the impacts of permafrost degradation under rapidly warming climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the connectedness among the climate change index, green financial assets, renewable energy markets, and geopolitical risk index from June 1, 2012 to June 13, 2022, using Quantile Vector Autoregressive (QVAR) and wavelet coherence (WC). The Total connectedness index (TCI) varies as long as the highest TCI originates in the upper quantile. We also note that the higher TCI decreases after the second wave of COVID-19 and increases during the first 100 days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Moreover, the results show that Geopolitical risk (GPR) is a net transmitter of the climate change index during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The green bond and clean energy markets are negatively connected to the GPR at extreme 10 th and 90 th quantiles. The wavelet coherence confirms the QVAR results that the climate change market can be a safe haven against GPR during the Russian invasion. The climate change index, green financial assets, and clean energy are strong influencers in the financial markets and are vital to international peace, reducing geopolitical risk. The study reports a few novel conclusions and implications from a sustainable development perspective. • Connectedness among climate change index, green financial assets, renewable energy markets. • Daily data was used from June 1, 2012 to June 13, 2022. • Role of geopolitical risk for green financial assets and renewable energy market. • Climate change index, green financial assets, and clean energy are strong influencers in the financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The retreat rates of Arctic coasts have increased in recent decades at many sites, and an essential part of coasts considered accumulative before have turned erosional due to global climate changes and construction in the coastal zone. In this paper, we study a 7 km long coastal section of the western Gydan Peninsula in a new construction area. Based on the interpretation of multi-temporal satellite imagery, we assessed coastal dynamics in distinct periods from 1972 to 2020. We analyzed the geological structure of the coast as well as changes in hydrometeorological parameters with time, and considering the human impact, we proposed the main drivers of spatial and temporal variations of coastal dynamics. The studied low-lying sandy accumulative marine terrace was more or less stable in the period before construction (1972–2014). However, with the area's development, the coast dynamics changed drastically: in 2014–2017, three-quarters of the studied area experienced retreat, and the average retreat rate amounted to 5.8 m/yr, up to 28.5 m/yr near the construction sites. We relate this coastal erosion intensification to human impact combined with the growth of hydrometeorological forcing. Although coastal erosion slowed down after 2017, the retreat trend remained. In the coming years, with Arctic climate warming, erosion of the studied coast will continue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The megatrends of climate change, China's Belt and Road Initiative, and the Western sanctions against Russia have made the once calm Arctic an arena of geopolitical competition. Before the Crimea crisis of 2014, the Nordics were the primary advocates for a Chinese role in the Arctic when Russia was still hesitant. In 2017 Russia and China agreed to build a Polar Silk Road along the Northern Sea Route, which complements China's 21st Century Maritime Silk Road plans. Russia financially depends on China for its aspirational Arctic plans. Meanwhile, China increasingly perceives the five Nordic states as a unit to negotiate projects under the Belt and Road Initiative and suggested a 5 + 1 format. Thus, China's rising Arctic presence made the age-old Nordics-Russia relations triangular. What does the Sino-Russian strategic partnership mean for the Nordics' preference formation concerning the Polar Silk Road? This paper traces the triangular ties before and after the Crimea crisis and finds that the actors switched from liberal towards defensive neorealist perspectives. The Nordics have become worried about the Sino-Russian Arctic honeymoon, Russia's Arctic military assertiveness and China's intentions. As the triangular links are out-of-balance, the Nordics might apply complex balancing to achieve collective goods along the Northern Sea Route. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present stage of development of artificial intelligence (AI) is based on advanced technologies and modern methods and algorithms of machine learning (ML) including deep machine learning, intellectual data analysis and other fundamental scientific areas, which in turn play an important role in delivering applied solutions in almost all areas of digital economy. However, the corresponding expansion of the AI application range and complication of the class of problems, as well as of the spectrum and the volume of data used for creation of applied AI models and AI-based intelligent system call for a significant expansion of the theoretical and algorithmic basis of AI including development of ML methods that involve mathematical and physical models of objects and phenomena of domains, methods of fusion of multimodal data, methods for constructing geometric and topological components of deep neural networks, methods for modeling 3D objects, etc. In 2021, in order to cope well with these challenges, Skoltech Research Center for Applied Artificial Intelligence was created with support from the Federal Program "Artificial Intelligence." The aims of the Center are as follows: creation of a scientific and technological basis for solution of a wide range of relevant applied tasks for purposes of sustainable development of the economy of the Russian Federation including optimization problems of managerial decisions aimed at reduction of the carbon footprint and other urgent ESG tasks; environmental monitoring tasks for detection of anomalies and extreme situations forecast; assessment of economic and social risks and their dynamics caused by climatic changes; predictive analytic problems, etc. In the present paper, we describe new AI technologies, models, methods and algorithms developed in the Center, describe the main applied areas of research of the Center, and provide a briefly survey of the already developed scientific and applied results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of observed and projected climate changes, it is necessary to develop science-based methods and criteria to assess the need for preventive adaptation to the consequences of climate change and associated risks. The nature, the population, and the economy always respond to changing conditions, including climate changes, and adapt to them. However, the speed and effectiveness of such reactive adaptation may be insufficient. For this reason, planning adaptation measures and implementing preventive adaptation have become critical for the sustainable development of the economy, improving the quality of life of people, and preserving ecosystems. This paper proposes an approach to identifying the quantitative indicators of climate impact that show the need for preventive adaptation when they exceed threshold values. This approach can also be used in the development and implementation of adaptation plans for the sectors of the economy and the subjects of the Russian Federation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reports the observed data of average annual temperatures and precipitation for the period 1985–2016 for the regions of the Republic of Bashkortostan and an analysis of the influence of climate change on the soil climate. The Republic is one of Russia's largest producers of agricultural products, and the forest cover of the territory is almost 40%. Given the existence of extensive oil pipelines and water supply networks, the issue of soil climate is relevant also to the management of such infrastructure. The average annual air temperature in the region has increased by 0.7°C and some weather stations have recorded absolute increases in maximum temperatures. Thus, there is an increase in the length of the vegetative period but at the same time there is increased risk of drought. Further, the average annual rainfall is increasing. The importance of the depth of freezing of the soil for agriculture was considered; deep and unstable freezing zones were identified. The height of the snow cover has also decreased. The paper considers implications for engineering systems such as pipelines and basements for different buildings and constructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to examine the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR), threats (GPT) and acts (GPA) on returns and volatilities of regional climate change stocks under different market conditions, employing quantile regressions. Our main results suggest that climate change stock returns positively (negatively) respond to GPR in bullish (bearish) market states, however the effect is not uniform across the regions. The volatilities mainly show a positive response to geopolitical tensions; geopolitical acts appear to have a more pronounced impact on volatilities than geopolitical threats. We further find that GPR leads to higher volatility during the Russia-Ukraine war, creating heightened uncertainty. Overall, the results reveal that geopolitical risks have an asymmetric and heterogenous impact on climate change stocks. The results provide significant insights and implications for financial market participants and policy makers. • The study investigates how geopolitical risks (GPR) influence the returns and volatilities of climate change stocks in different market conditions. • We focus on the Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a geopolitical conflict. • We find an asymmetric impact of GPR on climate change stock returns, with positive responses observed in bullish market states and negative responses in bearish market states. • While GPR does not significantly affect returns, it leads to higher volatilities during the Russia-Ukraine war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an assessment of the rates of erosion and sedimentation in hollows of the Temeva Rechka small dry valley catchment, dominated by forest-steppe gray forest soils (Luvic Retic Greyzemic Phaeozems), over the past 55–60 years with the use of the radiocesium technique. This catchment is located in the Myosha River basin (Republic of Tatarstan, European Russia). The hollows have been grouped by the catchment's slope aspects, hollow length, hollow bottom gradient, and shape of the thalweg profile of the hollow bottoms; origin and age, as well as by the specifics of erosion/sedimentation processes. Short agrogenic hollows with a small catchment area on relatively steep western slopes of the Temeva Rechka small dry valley, probably formed after human deforestation, have been identified. The shape of their catchments contributes to the formation of surface runoff, sufficient for the erosion of a significant part of their bottoms at a rate of about 2–4 t/ha per year. Older, polygenetic, and relatively long hollows with a slightly sloping bottom and larger catchments serve as sediment transit zones between plowed areas and the Temeva Rechka small dry valley bottom. They are characterized by alternating areas of soil erosion and sediment accumulation. The average rate of soil erosion in these landforms is 0.8 t/ha per year. In some hollows, when several small tributaries (smaller hollows) flow into their lower parts, soil erosion loss increases to 3 t/ha per year. The average soil erosion loss is 6 t/ha per year on short slopes of the hollows; in their upper parts, it can reach 11 t/ha per year. There is a general decrease in the rates of soil erosion and accumulation of eroded material in recent decades due to changes in climate and land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world's largest fossil fuels exporter, Russia is one of the key countries for addressing global climate change. However, it has never demonstrated any significant ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper applies ideational research methodology to identify the structural differences in economic, political, and social normative contexts between industrialized fossil fuel importing economies and Russia that lead to the fundamental gap in motivations driving decarbonization efforts. Russia is unlikely to replicate the approach to the green transition and climate policy instruments of energy-importing countries. In order to launch decarbonization in Russia, interested stakeholders need to frame climate policies in Russia differently. Specifically, the framing must address the priority of diversification as a means to adapting the national economy to a new green landscape, the combination of diverse channels for decarbonization, the promotion of energy-efficiency, closer attention to climate-related forest projects, and linkage of climate change with other environmental problems. Moreover, considering Russia's emissions as a part of the global economic system and shifting from a simplistic national focus on GHG emissions reduction would help coordinate policies through dialogue between exporters and importers of fossil fuel energy-intensive goods, which is essential for the global movement towards a net-zero future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents two new pollen records and quantitative climate reconstructions from northern Chukotka documenting environmental changes over the last 27.9 ka. Open tundra‐ and steppe‐like habitats dominated between 27.9 and 18.7 cal. ka BP. Betula and Alnus shrubs might have grown in sheltered microhabitats but disappeared after 18.7 cal. ka BP. Although the climate was rather harsh, local herb‐dominated communities supported herbivores as is evident by the presence of coprophilous spores in the sediments. The increase in Salix and Cyperaceae ~16.1 cal. ka BP suggests climate amelioration. Shrub Betula appeared ~15.9 cal. ka BP, and became dominant after ~15.52 cal. ka BP, whilst typical steppe communities drastically reduced. Very high presence of Botryococcus in the Lateglacial sediments reflects widespread shallow habitats, probably due to lake level increase. Shrub Alnus became common after ~13 cal. ka BP reflecting further climate amelioration. Simultaneously, herb communities gradually decreased in the vegetation reaching a minimum ~11.8 cal. ka BP. A gradual decrease of algae remains suggests a reduction of shallow‐water habitats. Shrubby and graminoid tundra was dominant ~11.8–11.1 cal. ka BP, later Salix stands significantly decreased. The forest‐tundra ecotone established in the Early Holocene, shortly after 11.1 cal. ka BP. Low contents of green algae in the Early Holocene sediments likely reflect deeper aquatic conditions. The most favourable climate conditions were between ~10.6 and 7 cal. ka BP. Vegetation became similar to the modern after ~7 cal. ka BP but Pinus pumila came to the Ilirney area at about 1.2 cal. ka BP. It is important to emphasize that the study area provided refugia for Betula and Alnus during MIS 2. It is also notable that our records do not reflect evidence of Younger Dryas cooling, which is inconsistent with some regional environmental records but in good accordance with some others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new dataset on the diet of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea from the 1930s to the present day has been compiled to produce one of the largest fish diet datasets available globally. Atlantic cod is one of the most ecologically and commercially important fish species in the North Atlantic. The stock in the Barents Sea is by far the largest, as a result of both successful management and favourable environmental conditions since the early 2000s. As a top predator, cod plays a key role in the Barents Sea ecosystem. The species has a broad diet consisting mainly of crustaceans and teleost fish, and both the amount and type of prey vary in space and time. The data – from Russia, Norway and the United Kingdom – represent quantitative stomach content records from more than 400 000 fish and qualitative data from 2.5 million fish. Many of the data are from joint collaborative surveys between Norway and Russia. The sampling was conducted throughout each year, allowing for seasonal, annual and decadal comparisons to be made. Visual analysis shows cod diets have changed considerably from the start of the dataset in the 1930s to the present day. There was a large proportion of herring in the diets in the 1930s, whereas in more recent decades capelin, invertebrates and other fish dominate. There are also significant interannual asynchronous fluctuations in prey, particularly capelin and euphausiids. Combining these datasets can help us understand how the environment and ecosystems are responding to climatic changes, and what influences the diet and prey switching of cod. Trends in temperature and variability indices can be tested against the occurrence of different prey items, and the effects of fishing pressure on cod and prey stocks on diet composition could be investigated. The dataset will also enable us to improve parametrization of food web models and to forecast how Barents Sea fisheries may respond in the future to management and to climate change. The Russian data are available through joint projects with the Polar Branch of the Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO). The UK and Norwegian data (Townhill et al., 2020) are being released with this paper at 10.21335/NMDC-2139169383. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a discussion on an opinion about the stability margin towards an emergency in local climate dynamics from the bifurcation analysis viewpoint. With this purpose we propose to attract the practice-oriented bifurcation analysis, where the conflict-of-units between notions used to understand natural evolution processes and notions used to describe desirable artificial regimes is resolved by integrating analytics on the basis of modified bifurcation diagrams. The discussion focuses on the phenomenon of interannual temperature variability, where local annual maximums and minimums are analyzed with daily details in both time and temperature coordinates. This phenomenon is considered via the probable, periodical and regulator conceptions. Advantages of the regulator conception are verified by results of processing the data of temperature meteorological observations on daily means over the last 135 years. This conception is based on the HDS-hypothesis, in accordance to which local climate dynamics is determined by the natural competition between the amplitude quantization (restricted by the temperature Hysteresis) and time quantization (caused by the Double Synchronization). Thus an alternation between three elementary processes with the same period (year) and different patterns of annual warming–cooling cycles is supposed as a typical behavior for local climate systems, and the idea on high-dynamic local climate ensembles is developed instead of the conventional opinion on quasi-static local climate norms. Mechanisms of temperature changes due to abrupt shifts (so-called change-points) of the HDS-regulator parameters are distinguished from mechanisms of temperature changes due to bifurcations. The notion of a stability margin is used as a distance to an emergency and is visualized in the parametrical space. So, in spite of the mechanisms of temperature changes with/without bifurcations are different, their conflict-free sewing becomes conceptually possible in the context of the stability margin towards emergencies determined relatively bifurcation boundaries in the parametrical space. Since the discussed dynamics is not supposed to exist in terms of the traditional estimations concerning the observed local climate changes, then we believe that the paper would be interesting for scientists in the field of bifurcation analysis as well as for scientists and specialists, activity areas of which relate to the contemporary challenges connected with climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science can facilitate in‐depth learning for pupils and students, contribute to scientific research, and permit civic participation. Here, we describe the development of the transnational school‐based citizen science project Phenology of the North Calotte. Its primary goal is to introduce pupils (age 12–15; grades 7–10) in northern Norway, Russia, and Finland to the local and global challenges of climate change resulting in life cycle changes at different trophic and ecosystem levels in their backyards. Partnerships between regional scientists and staff from NIBIO Svanhovd, State nature reserves, national parks, and teachers and pupils from regional schools aim to engage pupils in project‐based learning. The project uses standardized protocols, translated into the different languages of participating schools. The phenological observations are centered around documenting clearly defined life cycle phases (e.g., first appearance of species, flowering, ripening, leaf yellowing, snow fall, and melt). The observations are collected either on paper and are subsequently submitted manually to an open‐source online database or submitted directly via a newly developed mobile app. In the long term, the database is anticipated to contribute to research studying changes in phenology at different trophic levels. In principle, guided school‐based citizen science projects have the potential to contribute to increased environmental awareness and education and thereby to transformative learning at the societal level while contributing to scientific progress of understudied biomes, like the northern taiga and (sub)arctic tundra. However, differences in school systems and funding insecurity for some schools have been major prohibiting factors for long‐term retention of pupils/schools in the program. Project‐based and multidisciplinary learning, although pedagogically desired, has been partially difficult to implement in participating schools, pointing to the need of structural changes in national school curricula and funding schemes as well as continuous offers for training and networking for teachers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change in recent decades is accompanied by rising temperatures and increasing cyclonic activity with strong air flows. How do they affect soil respiration? Is it possible to expect an increase in CO2 emissions and, consequently, a positive feedback of climate change through the greenhouse effect? These questions cannot be answered without the insight into the effect of wind speed on the gas exchange between soil and atmosphere in different landscapes. The paper summarizes the long-term measurements of CO2 efflux from forest-steppe chernozems (Kursk oblast, Russia) in natural and anthropogenic landscapes with forest or herbaceous vegetation depending on wind speed; it presents a physically grounded approach to its quantitative first-approximation (linear) description. The approach assumes an impact of wind through increased forced convection and turbulent diffusivity along with a potential reduction in diffusion mass transfer due to a decrease in the gradient of CO2 concentration between the atmosphere and soil. The constructed inverse parabolic dependence adequately describes the empirical data and assumes a twofold increase in the emission with the wind speed increase to the critical value of 3 m/s and its decreases to the initial level with the further wind speed increase to 6–7 m/s. The intensity of forced convection of soil air turns out to be by five–six orders of magnitude lower than the wind speed in the atmosphere but not inferior to the intensity of conventional isothermal CO2 diffusion, which suggests that this mechanism is to be taken into account in the models of soil–atmosphere gas exchange. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new dataset on the diet of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea from the 1930s to the present day has been compiled, to produce one of the largest fish diet datasets available globally. Atlantic cod is one of the most ecologically and commercially important fish species in the North Atlantic. The stock in the Barents Sea is by far the largest, as a result of both successful management and favourable environmental conditions since the early 2000s. As a top predator, cod plays a key role in the Barents Sea ecosystem. The species has a broad diet consisting mainly of crustaceans and teleost fish, and both the amount and type of prey vary in space and time. The data, from Russia, Norway and the United Kingdom, represents quantitative stomach contents records from more than 400,000 fish, and qualitative data from 2.5 million fish. Much of the data is from joint collaborative surveys between Norway and Russia. The sampling was done throughout each year allowing for seasonal, annual and decadal comparisons to be made. Visual analysis shows cod diets have changed considerably from the start of the dataset in the 1930s to the present day. There was a large proportion of herring in the diets in the 1930s, whereas in more recent decades, capelin, invertebrates and other fish dominate. There are also significant interannual asynchronous fluctuations in prey, particularly capelin and euphausiids. Combining these datasets can help us understand how the environment and ecosystems are responding to climatic changes, and what influences the diet and prey switching of cod. Trends in temperature and variability indices can be tested against the occurrence of different prey items, and the effects of fishing pressure on cod and prey stocks on diet composition could be investigated. The dataset will also enable us to improve parametrisation of food web models, and to forecast how Barents Sea fisheries may respond in the future, to management and to climate change. The Russian data is available through joint projects with Polar branch of VNIRO. The UK and Norwegian data (Townhill et al., 2020) is being released with this paper at https://doi.org/10.21335/NMDC-2139169383. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 25 years since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, sweeping political, economic, and social changes have profoundly influenced environmental protection in Russia, the world’s largest country and one of global importance with respect to natural resources, biodiversity conservation, wilderness preservation, and climate change mitigation. This paper reviews the state of the environment by assessing post-Soviet era changes to legislation, government regulatory institutions, and civil society. A gulf exists between Russia’s formal environmental laws and state agency capacity and interest in enforcing them. This stems, in part, from repeated bureaucratic reorganizations that have progressively eroded environmental institutions. The Russian environmental movement, which blossomed during Gorbachev’s reforms in the late 1980s, struggled in the 1990s to mobilize the broader public due to economic hardship and political instability. Since then, the Putin administration has labeled many environmental groups “anti-Russian” and used aggressive tactics such as raiding NGO offices, intimidating journalists, and instituting severe legislative measures to quash advocacy and dissent. Post-Soviet environmental successes have been relatively few, with expansion of the protected area system and forest certification notable exceptions. These successes can partially be attributed to efforts by large environmental organizations, but expansion of certification and corporate social responsibility is also tied to Russian business interests dependent on natural resource export to global markets increasingly sensitive to environmental concerns. The paper concludes by illustrating how corruption, poor enforcement, and the muzzling of civil society render the state incapable of resolving arguably its most significant environmental challenge: illegal and unregulated resource use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the bifurcation analysis remains the basic tool to inquire into nonlinear system dynamics, then, theoretically, the bifurcation analysis should be widely used to estimate the evolution of the climate dynamics at a certain geographic point over the last centenary. But it does not occur in practice. A viewpoint how to estimate such evolution is proposed and discussed in the paper. The viewpoint can be briefly formulated as the following: the extra-short timescale, plus the novel conceptual model, plus the modified bifurcation diagrams. So, first, only the data of instrumental measurements (hereafter observations) are used to build the bifurcation diagram, correspondingly, the timescale is restricted by the maximal duration of the reliable observations. In particular, 130-years time series of the land surface air temperature in Russia are analyzed in the paper. Second, the conceptual model (HDS-model) to describe the annual warming-cooling cycle dynamics similar to the dynamics of the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization (HDS-regulator) is introduced. Correspondingly, the local climate dynamics is considered as the dynamics of the system with a variable structure. The main advantage of HDS-model is the possibility to describe quite simply the rich variety of the observable temperature evolution based on the known nonlinear phenomena by the combinations of C-bifurcations (or, in other words, border-collision bifurcations) between three conjugate periodical processes with the same period but different orders of structural changes. Then HDS-hypothesis on the climate dynamics is proposed, where the local temperature evolution is considered under the competition between both amplitude and time quantizations within the Sun-Earth-Moon system. Processing the observations follows the SUC-logic conceptions on the experimental bifurcation analysis that allows to untangle the intricate nonlinear nonstationary behavior of a local climate system by using both special sections (S) and units (U) in a certain consequence (C). As a result, the modified bifurcation diagrams to show the temperature evolution in local climate systems are built under the variation of several bifurcation parameters. The diagrams exhibit intermittency phenomena of high activity in the European part of Russia at least. Generally speaking, HDS-hypothesis gives the good approximation to answer the question whether the observable changes in the local climate dynamics are qualitative and, if yes, in what meaning? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate trend today is reflected in the national, regional and sectoral socio-economic strategies of both developed and developing countries. Most often, the climate trend is presented in the form of predicted values of temperature increase on the Earth's surface by 1.5-2.0 degrees and the facts of the occurrence of the most probable weather risks. Practice shows that when making forecasts of socio-economic development, adverse hydrometeorological phenomena are not included in the system of significant and naturally occurring factors. Therefore, they do not find the necessary reflection in strategic documents. At the same time, weather anomalies systematically cause material and economic damage. The authors put forward a hypothesis about the significance of the factor of dangerous weather phenomena in the system of climatic factors that determine the level of agricultural production development and structural changes in the branches of the agro-industrial complex. The scientific task, to which the study is directed, is to establish a causal relationship between climatic parameters and production and economic indicators of the efficiency of the crop sub-sector. For this, a unique database was collected, which included values systematized by types of weather anomalies over the past 30 years in the context of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. This made it possible to determine the most typical dangerous weather phenomena for different regions that cause material damage. In the sub-sector of crop production, these are wind, heavy rains, extreme fire hazard and a combination of these phenomena. A clear relationship has been established between their number and the dynamics of crop production. The most vulnerable categories of producers to each type of hazardous weather phenomena have been identified. The relationship between climatic variables and economic efficiency of the crop production sub-sector is determined. The results of the analysis will serve as a justification for the need to take into account dangerous weather phenomena in the system of the most meaningful trends when predicting the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security of the country. This will contribute to the development of relevant sectoral and regional adaptation strategies in the face of the onset of the most probable natural and climatic risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the study is to identify the relationship between the main characteristics of animal husbandry in the regions of the Russian Federation and the most common types of hazardous weather phenomena that occur on their territories. Empirical data for 1991-2019 were obtained from the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) and the Federal Statistical Service of the Russian Federation. Using the methods of classification and mathematical-statistical analysis, five classification groups of regions of the Russian Federation with different livestock specialization were obtained and described. In each of the selected classification groups, the features of the manifestation of a whole spectrum of adverse weather phenomena of a hydrometeorological nature were studied. It has been determined that the most prone to weather risks are highly productive regions (the share of livestock products reaches from 4% to 8% in the Russian Federation) and regions with a low level of self-sufficiency in livestock products (less than 0.5%, respectively). In the course of the study, special attention was paid to small businesses, as the category of rural producers most vulnerable to climate risks. It has been established that large agricultural organizations are less affected by them. Over the past 30 years, heat waves, wind and floods have become the main damaging weather risks in the regions of livestock specialization over the past 30 years. Heat stress is the main climatic trigger for the decrease in the number of farm animals in farms of all categories. It is shown that the greatest influence of changes in the parameters of the climate system on the development of animal husbandry occurs through indirect links: the emergence of new pests and the emergence of diseases, new ways of their transmission; changes in the quality of forage crops and the availability of feed and water; reproductive and genetic variation. The impact is long-term and cumulative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on changes in the dates of the beginning, end, and duration of the stable cold and warm seasons in Russia in the second half of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. For 2001-2015, the duration of the cold period was significantly reduced by 30 days almost throughout the country. In the eastern European part of Russia, Southern Urals, these changes were caused by a later beginning of the winter; on the remaining territory, this happened because of the date shifting for both the beginning and the end of the stable cold season. The duration of the warm period increases everywhere due to the earlier end of the spring, except for south of the European part of Russia, Southern Yakutia, and the northern part of Western Siberia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing number of dangerous weather events, an increase in their duration and amplitude of action leads to sharp fluctuations in agricultural production, thereby creating risks for sustainable development and ensuring food security of the country. The aim of the study is to analyze the peculiarities of the manifestation of hazardous weather phenomena in the regions of the Russian Federation with crop specialization and to substantiate the actual mechanisms of adaptation of regional agrosystems to the consequences of the transformation of natural and climatic conditions. The use of the author's methodology for assessing the level of influence of climatic risks on agricultural production made it possible to establish that the increase in the number of unfavorable meteorological phenomena and the degree of their impact occurs more intensively in the most productive regions of crop specialization. The differentiated impact of climate risks necessitates the creation of regional and sectoral models of adaptation of regional agrosystems, taking into account the peculiarities of natural-resource potential, changes in crop productivity in response to changes in climatic variables, the structure of crop producers in the region. Mechanisms and tools for adapting agricultural systems to the consequences of climate change for the regions involved in the study are formulated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost-affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25%) climate-induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid-21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM-produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What drives the adoption of pottery amongst prehistoric foragers in high-latitude environments? Following the long-running interests of archaeology in explaining the origin and dispersal of new technologies, recent years have seen growing efforts to understand what drove the emergence and expansion of early hunter-gatherer pottery use across northern Eurasia. However, many regional dimensions to this continental-scale phenomenon remain poorly understood. Initial pottery adoption has often been explained as a generic cultural response to warming climates and the growing diversity of food resources, yet resolving challenges of food security during seasonal shortfalls or general climatic downturns may have provided alternative motivations. It is also becoming clear that many regions experienced more complex patterns of pottery adoption and that many resist simplistic monocausal interpretations. In this paper we deploy a Human Ecodynamics framework to examine what drove the punctuated adoption of two early pottery traditions into Arctic Maritime Europe, which were separated by a multi-millennial ceramic hiatus – Early Northern Comb Ware (ENCW) and Asbestos Tempered Ware (ATW). Our multi-proxy approach involves the revision of pottery chronologies to clarify the timing and ecological context for each dispersal, combined with analysis of technological and functional dimensions of the ceramic traditions to understand the contrasting social organization of these technologies. Our results confirm that ENCW expanded at a time of increased locational investment and ecological abundance in the region, while ATW spread in a series of smaller and more intermittent waves in the context of a major ecological downturn and alongside a return to a high-mobility lifestyle. Finally, we use the concept of "source-sink dynamics" to suggest that both dispersals were driven by the same underlying process. This involved major climatic fluctuations triggering small-scale population transfers from lake and riverine settings of western Russia, Finland and the Eastern Baltic region via interior areas and through to the Arctic Norwegian coastline, a persistent process that is also well-documented in later historical periods. Our results highlight the crucial importance of bridging-scale case studies as these have the "unsettling" potential to highlight deeper problems of equifinality. In this case, they reveal that two broadly similar material traditions spread into the same regions, albeit in the context of strikingly different environmental and behavioural conditions. • Multi-proxy approach explains the punctuated adoption of two early pottery traditions into Arctic Maritime Europe. • Early Northern Comb Ware was adopted (∼7500 cal BP) during ecological surplus by semi-sedentary coastal communities. • Asbestos Tempered Ware was adopted (∼3500 cal BP) later than previously assumed, during ecological deficit conditions. • Comparative techno-functional analysis of the pottery complexes indicates major differences in their social organization. • "Source-sink dynamics" explain why pottery expanded to the Arctic coast during divergent environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The glacier system covering Europe's highest mountain, Elbrus, has exhibited an accelerated retreat since 1980. Some studies have related this retreat to a significant summer temperature increasing trend. Relief- and aspect-related parameters for the glacierized area have an important impact on glacier changes. In this paper, the changes in glacier area are identified, quantified and correlated with relief parameters for the period 1985–2007. Spatial analysis was performed using the GLAM-CD (Glacier Mapper – Change Detector) algorithm. The input data for this algorithm were Landsat 5 images, the Aster Global Digital Elevation and the glacier outlines from the GLIMS project (Global Land Ice Measurements from Space). Regression analyses between glacier area losses and relief-related parameters indicate a significant positive relation with the altitude and a significant negative relation with the glacier surface area. In this context, we used a correlated component regression to model these relations. The model explains >50% of the total variation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Triggered by debates on climate change and energy security, renewable energy sources are presently high on the political agenda in many countries. In this regard Russia seems to stand aside worldwide developments. Until recently Russia׳s enormous potential in renewable energy sources remained poorly utilised. However, Russia׳s formal commitment to the global climate change regime, its new Energy Strategy 2030, and an increase in wood pellet production suggest a discontinuity. This paper investigates and explains the (limited) progress in the solid bioenergy sector in Northwest Russia. With little Russian experience in this sector, poor technological knowledge on renewables, and inadequate domestic market structures, the development of a domestic solid bioenergy sector is far from easy. Hence, Northwest Russian wood pellet developments cannot be traced back to new federal policies, only partly to local demand and stimulation, and significantly to foreign drivers. Major EU demand for wood pellets and intensified collaboration with foreign companies and organisations leading in the field of solid bioenergy research, technology and trade have triggered these developments. But it is a long way before Russia will be released from its fossil fuel addiction, as repeatedly promised by governmental officials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple global changes are impacting Russia today. Economic transformations in Russia have prompted the establishment of new business relations, which are based on innovations in the economic, institutional and ecological spheres, including within the Forest industry. This paper focuses on the Forest sector in Irkutsk province and beyond, examining the basic problems related to the institutional innovations in the Forest industry of the province, and the major factors and conditions influencing the dynamics of institutional innovations. A brief historical background and analysis of institutional structures are also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate change affects the state of inland water bodies and their water balance, which is determined by a number of hydrometeorological and hydrogeological factors. An integral characteristic of changes in the water balance is the behavior of the level of lakes and reservoirs, which not only largely determines the physical and ecological state of water bodies, but also significantly affects the coastal infrastructure and socio-economic development of the region. This paper investigates the interannual variability of the level of the Ladoga and Onega lakes, the largest lakes in Europe located in the northwest of Russia, according to satellite altimetry data for 1993–2020. For this purpose, we used three specialized altimetry databases: DAHITI, G-REALM, and HYDROWEB. Water level data from these altimetry databases were compared with in-situ records at water level gauge stations. Information on air temperature (1945–2019) and precipitation (1966–2019) acquired at three meteostations located at Ladoga and Onega lakes was used to investigate interannual trends in the regional climate change. Finally, we discuss the potential impact of the lake level rise and regional climate warming on the infrastructure and operability of railways in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Underground storage facilities dug in permafrost, or ice cellars, are a natural means of preserving food in conditions of transport isolation and total energy dependence on imported fuel. In the context of rapidly changing natural conditions, such storage facilities become unstable due to warming and degradation of permafrost. Monitoring and modeling the thermal regime of permafrost soils around ice cellars will help assess the impact of predicted climatic changes and the effectiveness of engineering solutions to sustain these facilities. In this paper, we made an attempt to simulate and predict the thermal regime of permafrost around an ice cellar, located in the community of Lorino, NE Russia. We found out that by 2050 the depth of seasonal thawing of the soil above the storage facility will increase from 1.12–1.74 m to 1.19–2.53 m, while the mean annual ground temperature will increase by only 0.5 °C, regardless of the climatic scenario. Results of the predictive simulation demonstrate significant but not critical changes of the thermal state of permafrost around the ice cellar. In fact, incorrect maintenance of the facility may have higher impact to its stability than climate changes. Some recommendations on preventive measures on increasing the ice cellar stability were provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters caused by climatic hazards have a significant and increasing direct and indirect impact on human health. Due to its vast area, complex geographical environment and various climatic conditions, Russia is one of the countries that suffers significantly from frequent climate hazards. This paper provides information about temperature extremes in Russia in the beginning of the 21st century, and their impact on human health. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases Web of Science, Science Direct, Scopus, and e-Library, focusing on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English and in Russian from 2000 to 2021. The results are summarized in 16 studies, which are divided into location-based groups, including Moscow, Saint Petersburg and other large cities located in various climatic zones: in the Arctic, in Siberia and in the southern regions, in ultra-continental and monsoon climate. Heat waves in cities with a temperate continental climate lead to a significant increase in all-cause mortality than cold waves, compared with cities in other climatic zones. At the same time, in northern cities, in contrast to the southern regions and central Siberia, the influence of cold waves is more pronounced on mortality than heat waves. To adequately protect the population from the effects of temperature waves and to carry out preventive measures, it is necessary to know specific threshold values of air temperature in each city. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our understanding of the time variability of intense cyclones in the Mediterranean region is still lacking despite its importance for the long-term forecast of climate anomalies. This study examines the month-to-month variability and predictability of cyclones, the intensity of which exceeded the 75th percentile (intense cyclones) and the 95th percentile (extreme cyclones), over the Western and Eastern Mediterranean. The locations of cyclones were obtained by applying the method of M. Yu. Bardin on the 6-hourly 1000 hPa geopotential height data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period 1951–2017 (67 years). It was shown that annual frequencies of cyclones were higher in the Western Mediterranean due to the contribution of spring and autumn; monthly averages were higher in the Eastern Mediterranean in December/January–March for intense/extreme cyclones. In the context of global warming, no linear trends significant at the 90% confidence level were found in the variability of intense and extreme cyclones, except for a positive trend in autumn extreme cyclones over the Eastern Mediterranean. The time series of cyclones in both parts of the Mediterranean were characterized by a pronounced interannual variability with a noticeable decadal modulation. According to spectral analysis, these interannual periods were multiples of 2–3 years corresponding to the main global teleconnection patterns. Seasonally, the most energy was concentrated in winter spectra; spring and autumn spectra had lower comparable magnitudes. The correlation analysis between the frequency of cyclones and the indices of the main atmospheric patterns showed that the main synchronous patterns for intense and extreme Mediterranean cyclones in September–April were the Mediterranean Oscillation (with the opposite signs for the Western and Eastern Mediterranean), Scandinavia pattern (positive correlation), and East Atlantic Oscillation (negative correlation). Additional important synchronous teleconnection patterns for some months were the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern for the Western Mediterranean, and the Polar/Eurasia pattern and Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern for the Eastern Mediterranean. The outcome of this paper was the use of an artificial neural network model with inputs of global teleconnection indices both in the atmosphere and ocean to describe the temporal variability of the frequency of intense cyclones in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean. The predictability of intense cyclones was shown with the possibility of forecasts with a lead time of 0, 2, 4, and 6 months for the Western Mediterranean in October, January, February, April, and May, and for the Eastern Mediterranean in January, February, March, April, and May. One of the applications of this model may be in forecasting the evolution of the monthly frequency of cyclones with a lead time of 2 to 6 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The specificity of the continental part of the Arctic latitudes is large areas covered by wetlands. Huge masses of slightly decomposed organic substance (peat) are conserved in permafrost. The modern climatic changes and development of northern territories lead to intensifying of cryolithozone degradation process. The thawing of permafrost is accompanied by the thermokarst lakes formation and the withdrawal of ancient organic carbon from frozen soils in the form of carbon dioxide and methane, which is one of the most serious environmental threats in the global climate change scenario. Tundra landscape complexes have an important climate-regulating function at the biosphere level, but it is still not properly taken into account when drawing up global models of climate changes and carbon balance. Quantifying methane emissions from discontinuous permafrost is an important task.This paper presents the first results of a dissolved methane concentrations study in water of 54 thermokarst water bodies of Bolshezemelskaya tundra (BZT) at different stages of formation. Direct measurements of methane flux from the surface of 8 lakes using a floating chamber were carried out, and a diffusion flux of methane from the lakes surface was calculated on the basis of water surface methane concentration, wind speed and gas transfer coefficient.The research results have shown that all the studied water bodies were oversaturated with CH4. Concentrations of CH4 in lakes varied from 0.081 to 106.1 μmol l – 1. The highest CH4 concentrations were observed in subsidence, different from lakes with high concentrations of DOC, mineralization, and microelement composition. The diffusion methane flux from the subsidence and depression 11-30 times exceeded that from the thermokarst lakes surface. Measured with the floating chamber, methane fluxes from the surface water bodies were 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than those calculated. Significant and abrupt increase of methane flux in air samples from the chamber on a number of lakes indicates registering by the chamber of a bubble stream from the bottom of a lake. Methane emissions by means of bubble transfer ranged from 19 to 99%.Thus, depressions, subsidence, as well as small reservoirs (<100m2), are characterized by the highest concentrations of CH4, DOC. They are not represented on existing maps and databases of world lakes, and contain 3-70 times higher methane compared to large lakes. Methane emissions from small water bodies should be included in the methane flux assessment system from the Arctic tundra territory. All the more so as their contribution to total surface coverage of BZT area will increase, both as a result of climate warming and with an increase of anthropogenic load.The reported study was funded by MES of Russia under the theme number 0409-2015-0140, the project of the RSF 15-17-10009, RFBR_(Arctic resources) according to the research project № 18-05-70087. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]