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This paper offers an ethnographic engagement with the present and futures of Bangladesh's southwest delta. The southwest – which houses the Sundarbans, the world's largest remaining mangrove forest – is at once profoundly vulnerable to climate change and a site critical to Bangladesh's economic development. It figures thus both as a space of optimistic industrial growth and planetary threat. I explore what I call delta temporalities – the dissonant and possibly incommensurate imaginations of the future, and more importantly the projects seeking to bring them about, that proliferate in and shape the delta's fragile ecology in the present. Tracing tensions between conservation initiatives, dredging projects that attempt to keep rivers flowing for shipping and transportation, and new industrial and energy infrastructure projects, this paper reveals how and why the southwest – and deltas more broadly – have become key chokepoints of the Anthropocene, zones where the future itself becomes blocked and the present imperilled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is an attempt to review the climate change phenomenon through the theoretical lens of "Political Ecology of Health." It identifies the strategic implications of climate change policies on health and well‐being in the Sundarbans region of India and other related factors which come into play in determining the health status there. It encapsulates the existing vulnerabilities observed in this eco‐sensitive region and tries to reflect on the community's perception of the climate change crises inflicted upon them. The paper presents a comprehensive review of current conditions in the region. In addition to utilizing electronic databases, the author also reached out to experts from pertinent organizations with related expertise to gather supplementary references. Adapting to climate change is crucial to cope with the changing surroundings and elevate competency. Since Sundarbans' adaptation strategies are intricately dependent on historical positionality, community behavior, gender roles, social capital, and ecoregion sensitivity, the well‐being and recovery in the community are very much context‐specific. Thus, it must give space to discourses of newer politics of adaptation, emerging from a rigorous ecological standpoint. Looking into the matter through the lens of "situated knowledge, political economy and socio‐ecological relationships" brought out important issues like land‐ownership conflict, fading away of the traditional knowledge system, conspicuous utilization of funds and a poor public health system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic disasters and ecological threats lead to migrations of people with transitions in livelihood as displaced communities. Climatic changes and demographic pressures are harshly hampering the ecological balance of the Sundarbans delta region. Western Indian Ocean region's industrial spaces and town economies are alternatives of livelihood for migrants from Sundarbans delta. Historically, the two littorals and hinterland of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal of the Indian Ocean remain connected through trade networks. The Colonial State connected these two hinterlands of South Asia through railway networks. Since the late nineteenth century migrations within the regions for livelihood increased. With the twenty-first century the severity of the migration increased because of climatic change. In this research, I investigated the patterns of migration from the Sundarbans delta to the Western Indian Ocean region hinterland city of 'Aurangabad.' This empirical study situates the transitions and impacts on livelihood fragility of the communities displaced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the possible impacts of climate change on aquatic salinity and mangrove species in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. The impact analysis combines the salinity tolerance ranges of predominant mangrove species with aquatic salinity measures in 27 scenarios of climate change by 2050. The estimates indicate significant overall losses for Heritiera fomes; substantial gains for Excoecaria agallocha; modest changes for Avicennia alba, A. marina, A. officinalis, Ceriops decandra, and Sonneratia apetala; and mixed results for species combinations. Changes in mangrove stocks are likely to change the prospects for forest-based livelihoods. The implications for neighboring communities are assessed by computing changes in high-value mangrove species for the five sub-districts in the Sundarbans. The results of the impact analysis indicate highly varied patterns of gain and loss across the five sub-districts. Overall, however, the results suggest that salinity-induced mangrove migration will have a strongly regressive impact on the value of timber stocks because of the loss of highest value timber species, Heritiera fomes. In addition, the augmented potential for honey production will likely increase conflicts between humans and wildlife in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite an enormous amount of attention paid to the factors that shape vulnerability to human trafficking, such as poverty and a lack of economic opportunity, the debate of evidence for what enables these factors to exist in the first place is relatively less explored. Presently, discussions of the relationship between climate change and human insecurity have been marginal to broader debates about vulnerability to trafficking. This paper argues that this signifies a gap in our understanding of the underlying drivers that push individuals and communities into situations where vulnerability to trafficking amplifies, but also that increase the pull of risky migration pathways and exploitative work situations. This paper proceeds by examining and problematising dominant conceptualisations of vulnerability in human trafficking and climate change discourses. Next, it presents a case study of the Sundarbans region of India to highlight how climate change impacts compound and exacerbate the same factors that shape vulnerability to human trafficking--including environmental degradation, loss of livelihood, destitution, and forced migration. Lastly, it argues for enhanced attention to climate change-related insecurity as evidence of vulnerability to trafficking and outlines what such insights can bring to anti-trafficking efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article attempts to analyze the main impacts of climate change on public health starting with global and going through local by analyzing coastal communities in the area of influence of Sundarbans, located in southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. In dealing with paramount health problems caused by climate change, we discuss what are the major challenges faced by different actors. From the opinion of globalization and world system theory it will be argued that developing countries are facing major defiance in terms of mitigation and adaptation, including human health problems. Those living in developing world, as the case of Bangladesh, responsible for the lowest contributions to climate change, are already suffering the most. This paper is based on bibliographical and statistical review, and uses primary data collected from field and secondary from publications, books, scientific journals, international reports. In this paper we also focused that poor countries shall not be liable for the damages caused by carbon emissions already trapped into atmosphere, a historic problem caused by developed world, so we expect that multi-governance platforms should make mutual efforts to promote health in partnership with local institutions in order to solve the climatic crisis. • Unfortunately, developing countries which have contributed fewer amounts of GHG from beginning to right now, are the most affected and vulnerable countries due to climate change in conjunction with already suffering the consequences on human health. • A range of health risks such as vector-borne diseases problems capable of infecting human beings are linked with changeable weather patterns, as verified in the study region through primary data collection. Within the range of vector-borne diseases, dengue is more linked with global climatic pattern variation. • Scientific observation brings strong evidence with 98% of the inhabitants interviewed living in Southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh since childhood confirming that the sea level is rising, with more frequent tidal inundation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fact that the Sundarbans, a typical representation of the coastal ecosystem, and a treasure trove of natural resources, is degrading fast under the combined assault of man, nature and climate change, is no longer confined to scientific discussions, but has become a concern in public discourses. The issue at stake being the well being (habitat, health, livelihood and income) of the people, urgent remedial measures is warranted. Amongst the numerous issues seeking solutions, this paper addresses three concerns: i) increasing freshwater scarcity, which is limiting agricultural growth; ii) drainage congestion, causing flooding of farms and farmsteads; iii) and overexploitation coupled with pollution of resources in the coastal waters due to crowding of ventures, leading to fall in provisioning and other ecosystem services. Three innovative approaches are advanced to resolve these critical issues. The first suggestion speaks of closing few identified estuaries by suitable engineering structures, to create fresh water reservoir, and to do away with the need of protection bunds along the closed length on either side of the estuary. The second intervention advocates tidal river management (TRM) to enlarge the estuary sections along the estuary, where beels (large and deep-water bodies) are available. The third intervention is about extending farming in off-coast sea. Unlike land, sea offers the opportunity of practicing threedimensional (3-D) farming in the water column. Several technology models, which enable growing various useful seaweeds, corals, fishes at varying depths, not only offer new areas for farming, but also sequester more carbon, absorbs phosphorous and nitrogen, which are the major pollutants of coastal waters. The planning, design and operationalization of estuary management practices are based on complex hydraulic phenomena. In addition, the built environments always carry the burden of trade-off, and the suggested interventions are no exception to this rule. Further research is necessary to arrive at balanced decisions as per TEEB AgriFood Framework, for internalization of externalities embedded in the value loss of natural capital. Some of the identified research and data gaps include: estuary regime modelling for design of protection structures, hydro-salinity modelling to settle the competing issues crop vs brackish water aquaculture, mapping of coastal ecosystem resources for natural capital accounting (NAC). The suggested interventions, if properly implemented, will turn out to be a green deal - 'minimizing trade-offs and increasing synergies between enhanced human outcomes (crops, fish, water supply, etc.) and the health of the natural environment'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In world climate science, Bangladesh is considered a poster child of vulnerability. The primary stressors that affect the vulnerability of the Bangladeshi population include sea-level rise, biodiversity degradation, saltwater intrusion, desertification, social exclusion, unstable political conditions, and weak governance systems. Governance is an important non-climatic stressor that has not received sufficient attention. Within this framework, this paper explores the impacts of bribery and extortion on livelihoods and adaptive capacity in the face of climate change and argues that corruption significantly reduces the ability to respond to climatic stressors. Findings draw attention to this critical issue in climate change adaptation and international development in general, particularly for developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sundarbans is the largest mangrove forest of the world that lies in Bangladesh and India. This paper examined the correlation among population dynamics of Sundarbans impact zone (SIZ) from 1974 to 2011; impact of climate change on the forest; and changes in land cover of the forest from 1973 to 2010. Population size of SIZ was increased by 1.6 times between 1974 and 2011, whereas decreased by 2% during 2001 to 2011. During 1973 to 2010, water bodies, barren land and vegetated land reduced by 7.35%, 49.56% and 15.92% respectively; while grass land increased by 228.14% during the same period. But both population size and vegetated land declined during 2001 and 2011. This was due to the landfall of two severe cyclones in 2007 and 2009 through Sundarbans which resulted thousands of human casualties and out migration, and destruction of the forest. In addition, anthropogenic interventions like low flow from Ganges River and policy constraints also contributed to the demolition of Sundarbans. Thus, population growth, climate change and anthropogenic interventions are playing a decisive role to the depletion of forest resources from the Sundarbans mangrove forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sundarbans Mangrove Forest (SMF) is the world's largest tidal halophytic mangrove forest block. This forest and the livelihoods it depends on are extremely susceptible to anticipated climate change. The lives and vulnerabilities of small-scale fisheries are still poorly known despite the Sundarbans being frequently used as a test case by scientists to examine climate variability and change. Based on research on six fishing villages in the Sundarbans, this study analyzed the environmental and livelihood risks of smallscale fisheries and how they responded to climate change-related events. A range of qualitative techniques, such as focus groups, oral histories, and interviews, were used to gather empirical data. The study found that environmental changes have a significant impact on how well-off the Sundarbans community is, having an impact on things, including housing, income, savings, literacy, health, agriculture, and daily living. The most at risk from these negative effects are residents of nearby areas. The study's conclusions, which were based on the perspectives of the fishers, are important for the co-management of mangroves, biodiversity preservation, planning, and the improvement of livelihoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their corresponding targets are significantly interconnected, with many interactions, synergies, and trade-offs between individual goals across multiple temporal and spatial scales. This paper proposes a framework for the Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) of a complex deltaic socio-ecological system in order to analyze such SDG interactions. We focused on the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), India, within the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. It is densely populated with 4.4 million people (2011), high levels of poverty, and a strong dependence on rural livelihoods. It is adjacent to the growing megacity of Kolkata. The area also includes the Indian portion of the world's largest mangrove forest––the Sundarbans––hosting the iconic Bengal Tiger. Like all deltaic systems, this area is subject to multiple drivers of environmental change operating across scales. The IAM framework is designed to investigate socio-environmental change under a range of explorative and/or normative scenarios and explore associated policy impacts, considering a broad range of subthematic SDG indicators. The following elements were explicitly considered: (1) agriculture; (2) aquaculture; (3) mangroves; (4) fisheries; and (5) multidimensional poverty. Key questions that can be addressed include the implications of changing monsoon patterns, trade-offs between agriculture and aquaculture, or the future of the Sundarbans' mangroves under sea-level rise and different management strategies. The novel, high-resolution analysis of SDG interactions allowed by the IAM will provide stakeholders and policy makers the opportunity to prioritize and explore the SDG targets that are most relevant to the SBR and provide a foundation for further integrated analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As transition areas between aquatic ecosystems and the adjacent terrestrial ones, riparian regions are highly exposed to coastal climate hazards. This article describes how climate change and extreme weather impact vulnerable riparian communities and settlements. The analysis is done by reviewing past research and empirical case studies from riparian rural communities of the impact zone of the Sundarbans in Bangladesh, the world's most extensive mangrove forest. The article discusses the climate-related impacts on households through a Severity Index of Vulnerability and assesses the adaptation responses they may pursue. The principal climate-related vulnerabilities and impacts due to increases in temperature, storm surges, sea flooding, and sea-level rise are seawater intrusion and riverbank erosion. Many households have adopted several autonomous reactive adaptation strategies rather than planned ones, to cope with these impacts. However, government organisations and NGOs provide less than optimal technical and financial support to households for planned and anticipatory adaptive responses. The main barriers to adaptation were the high cost of improved crop varieties, inadequate agricultural extension services, and a lack of knowledge on effective climate adaptation. The restoration of the mangrove ecosystem may increase its resilience and, among other things, make local communities less exposed. The article also presents some adaptation measures proper to reduce the climate-related vulnerability of riparian settlements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change, climate extremes, and overuse of natural resources are all major contributors to the risk brought on by cyclones. In I West Bengal state of India, the Pathar Pratima Block frequently experiences a variety of risks that result in significant loss of life and livelihood. In order to govern coastal society, it is crucial to measure and map the multi-hazards risk status. To depict the multi-hazards vulnerability and risk status, no cutting-edge models are currently being applied. Predicting distinct physical vulnerabilities is possible using a variety of cutting-edge machine learning techniques. This study set out to precisely describe multi-hazard risk using powerful machine learning methods. This study involved the use of Analytic Hierarchical Analysis and two cutting-edge machine-learning algorithms - Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network, which are yet underutilized in this area. The multi-hazards risk was determined by taking into account six criteria. The southern and eastern regions of the research area are clearly identified by the multi-hazards risk maps as having high to extremely high hazards risk levels. Cyclonic hazards and embankment breaching are the main dominant factors among the multi-hazards. The machine learning approach is the most accurate model for mapping the multi-hazards risk where the ROC result of Random forest and artificial neural network is more than the conventional method AHP. Here RF is the most validated model than the other two. The effectiveness, root mean square error, true skill statistics, Friedman and Wilcoxon rank test, and area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic tests were used to evaluate the prediction capacity of newly constructed models. The RMSE values of 0.24 and 0.26, TSS values of 0.82 and 0.73, and AUC values of 88.20% and 89.10% as produced by RF and ANN models, respectively, were all excellent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change (CC) and consequent agricultural productivity repercussions. This study aimed at exploring the difference in farmers' perceptions of CC impacts on crop production and variation in adaptation measures across the Ganges' Tidal Floodplain (GTF) region. To unlock the local level contextspecific nature of adaptation, the study area covered two distinct zones of the GTF: interior zone, surrounded by the Sundarbans mangrove forest, and exterior zone being more exposed to the Bay of Bengal. An analysis of the differences in empirical climate parameter trends and farmers' adaptations to adjust to these changes in the two sample study areas (one from each zone) was conducted. In the exterior zone (Patuakhali), delayed monsoon and increasing intensity of post-monsoon rainfall coupled with poor water drainage resulted in delayed winter vegetable production and late harvest of rainy season rice (aman), eventually leading to a loss of winter rice season (boro). Rainfall in the interior zone (Satkhira) was found erratic and unevenly distributed causing unexpected loss of harvest. Farmers in both areas reported a high impact of CC on crop production. Farmers reported optimisation of fertiliser and pesticide use and planting date adjustment as the most practiced adaptations in both areas. Other preferred adaptation options were rice-fish farming in Satkhira and growing of high-value cash crops in Patuakhali. In terms of weighted average index scoring, Satkhira farmers on average had medium adaptation scores, while most of Patuakhali farmers had medium to low adaptation scores. Living in the same agroecological zone, the difference in farmers' perceptions, climate variability, and adaptation practices call for context- and location-specific adaptation planning and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity conservation is facing unprecedented challenges at the intersection of rapidly changing climates, widespread ecosystem degradation under the influence of global warming and resultant human tragedies over livelihood, habitation, adaptation and coping needs. These challenges are more acute across biodiversity hotspots in the Global South. This study disentangles the complex interplay to propose alternative paradigms of governance and policy thinking necessary for sustainable biodiversity conservation. Climate change impacts are exposing critical deficiencies of 'scientific forest management' pursued for over a century. For example, recurrent disasters and ecological shifts are increasingly obfuscating cognitive and physical boundaries between the reserve forest and human habitations; putting additional stress on livelihoods which in turn escalate pressures on the forest commons and fuel further conflicts between conservation governance and local communities. Instead of assisting in adaptation, the existing conservation governance mechanisms are producing further conflicts between humans and non-humans; livelihoods and conservation; disaster management and development. Conducted in the Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve –world's largest mangrove forest ecosystem and a climate change hotspot located along the Bay of Bengal across India and Bangladesh –the study finds an urgent need of rethinking and recalibrating biodiversity conservation in the times of climate change. However, institutional and market-based approaches such as promoting ecotourism or mangrove plantations may have little impact in this regard, the study finds. Instead, integrating cultural ecosystem services and co-producing knowledge will be critical to tackle the entanglements of climate change and its impacts on local lives, livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mangrove-agriculture system is a distinct ecosystem that evolved in the Sundarbans, India in the last century due to anthropogenic activities and climate change consequences. Degraded-mangrove and agriculture (rice-based systems and aquaculture) exist side by side, each having their specific challenges and opportunities. In this review, we analyzed challenges faced by this unique ecosystem along with opportunities derived from technological advancement and site-specific climate change adaptation strategies. Both the mangrove and lowland rice ecosystem could act as carbon (C) sink to the tune of 27 and 0.93 t ha−1 per annum, respectively. Apart from C sequestration, mangrove-rice systems provide many ecosystem services. However, 40% of tropical and 10.5% of Sundarban mangroves (between 1930 and 2013), have been lost due to climate change induced sea-level rise, extreme weather events and human interferences. The specific challenges in this system are freshwater scarcity, high salinity, insufficient real-time seed supply, poor fertilizer-management, lack of irrigation network, and unprecedented occurrence of extreme events which seriously hamper the productivity of mangrove, rice, and aquaculture. There also exist some unique opportunities in terms of cheap labour availability, mangrove-conservation acts, cheap river-communication, and scope of ecotourism which fortunately get the attention of national and international funding agencies. In the last section of this review, we recommended ten climate change adaptation strategies that may be considered at the policy and farmer levels. The strategies broadly include the development of small-scale rainwater harvesting structures in series, the introduction of salt tolerant cultivars with water management, land shaping, establishment of multipurpose cyclone shelter at each block and empowerment of women through self-help groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the relationship between climate change and criminal predation? Bangladesh's Sundarbans, the world's largest mangrove forest, has, over the past decade, emerged as a climate frontier. It is a space viewed not only as a climate hot spot but also as a zone where control and opportunity emerge out of friction between long‐standing political economies, new conservation interventions, and the materialities of the mangrove forest. Concomitantly, those who work in the Sundarbans have reported a dramatic increase in banditry and kidnapping. This article proposes the concept of an "ecology of capture" to chart the articulations between such kidnappings and other attempts to control rents, resources, and territory. Seen through the lens of capture, the Sundarbans highlights how the global rush to secure climate hot spots against degradation and displacement produces new configurations of expropriation and exploitation. [climate change, piracy, capture, conservation, Sundarbans, Bangladesh] বিমূর্ত: জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের সাথে অপরাধ প্রবনতার সম্পর্ক কি? পৃথিবীর সবচেয়ে বড় ম্যানগ্রোভ বন ‐ বাংলাদেশের সুন্দরবন, গত এক দশকে একটি জলবায়ু ফ্রন্টিয়ার হিসেবে আবির্ভুত হয়েছে। এটি এমন একটি স্থান যেটি শুধু জলবায়ু হটস্পট‐ই না বরং এখানে দীর্ঘস্থায়ী রাজনৈতিক অর্থনীতি, নব্য সংরক্ষণমূলক হস্তক্ষেপ, এবং ম্যানগ্রোভ বনের বস্তুগত সম্পদের দ্বন্দ্বে এই অঞ্চলটি একই সাথে নিয়ন্ত্রন এবং নতুন সুযোগ লাভের অঞ্চল হিসেবে আবির্ভুত হয়েছে। একই সাথে, যারা সুন্দরবনে কাজ করেন তাদের মতে সুন্দরবনে সাম্প্রতিক সময়ে ডাকাতি এবং অপহরণ ব্যাপকহারে বৃদ্ধি পেয়েছে।এ ধরণের অপহরণ, এলাকার নিয়ন্ত্রণ, এবং সম্পদ ও খাজনার মধ্যে অন্তর্নিহিত সম্পর্ক বোঝার জন্য এই গবেষণা পত্রে "Ecology of Capture/ বাস্তুসংস্থানের দখলদারিত্ব" ধারণাটিকে প্রস্তাব করা হয়েছে। দখলদারিত্বের দৃষ্টিতে দেখলে, পৃথিবীব্যাপী তীব্রবেগে চলমান জলবায়ু হটস্পটসমূহ অবক্ষয় এবং স্থানচ্যুতি রোধে নেয়া পদক্ষেপ গুলো কিভাবে নতুন করে সম্পদ বাজেয়াপ্তকরণ এবং শোষণের চিত্র তুলে ধরে তার একটি উৎকৃষ্ট উদাহরণ হলো সুন্দরবন। [জলবায়ু, ডাকাতি, দখলদারিত্ব, সংরক্ষণ, সুন্দরবন, বাংলাদেশ] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sundarbans (West Bengal) is highly vulnerable to hydro-meteorological hazards such as coastal storm surges, flooding, cyclones and other climatic events. These events often lead to loss of productivity in ecosystem-based livelihoods, biodiversity, ecosystem goods and services. Communities directly dependent on socio-ecological systems for primary livelihood need to strengthen their resilience for early recovery and prepare for the impacts of future hazards. Current policies often assume that households are equally vulnerable to hazards. However, there is no robust empirical study available on the level and distribution of vulnerability amongst marginalised households. This study compared the levels of vulnerability amongst 500 households in five villages situated in the Mangrove ecosystem of the Indian Sundarban using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVIs). The results uncover significant variations in levels and distribution of vulnerability between the villages. These findings could be used to tailor need-based bespoke adaptation and mitigation interventions to combat climate-induced variability or hazard events in the future. In order to optimise the benefits of policy or program for strengthening resilience of these households – this article recommends that policymakers consider micro-level differences in levels and distribution of vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation to climate change in mangrove-based fisheries is confronted by multiple barriers on which studies are limited. This study identified barriers to climate change adaptation faced by fishing communities dependent on the Sundarbans mangroves. The study also explored the possible linkages among the different barriers for the adaptation to climate change and ways to overcome them. Using both quantitative and qualitative approaches data were collected from September to December 2018 from two fishing communities dependent on the Sundarbans mangroves in Shyamnagar Upazila of Satkhira district. This study identified six categories of barriers: natural (cyclones, floods, riverbank erosions and salinity intrusion with increased frequencies and magnitudes), social (lack of education and awareness, insecurity at the cyclone shelters and during fishing), institutional (weak enforcement of fisheries regulations and fishing bans), financial (unfavourable credit systems, low income from fishing, and commissions for harvesting natural resources), technological (shortcomings of the weather forecast, lack of safety equipment, and low-grade boats and engines) and informational (lack of training on climatic hazards management and lack of livelihoods alternatives). Some of these barriers are inter-related and overlapped with one another directly or indirectly and hampered the climate change adaptation in complex ways. This research provides a range of measures to help mitigate and overcome the barriers including mitigation of climate change, proper education and awarenessraising, enforcement of fisheries rules and regulations, reconsideration of fishing ban in the Sundarbans, favourable credit systems, reduction of fees for collecting natural resources from the Sundarbans and technological development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research reveals the magnitude of mangrove area loss and future impacts on mangrove species composition and distribution due to rise in Mean Sea Level (MSL). In this study, a geospatial model of potentially inundated areas was developed using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on the spatial distribution of mangrove species and estimate the potential inundation and subsequent mangrove area loss. The mangrove areas of 2646 ha, 9599 ha and 74,720 ha are projected to be inundated and subsequently lost by the end of the twenty first century for the low, medium and high SLR scenarios respectively under the net subsidence rate −2.4 mm/year relative to the baseline year 2000. All the major five mangrove species of the Bangladesh Sundarbans will be affected and this can potentially contribute to a change in the present species composition and biodiversity of the forest. Results suggest that, under the extreme scenario, inundation and subsequent loss of different mangrove species will be substantial and this can bring a massive change in the species composition and their spatial distribution in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural calamities have adverse effects on the life of marginal and small farmer practicing rice cultivation in Sundarban areas. Through discussion and questionnaires opinion of farmers were obtained that was applied to mitigate the problem of rice cultivation. Rice varieties tolerant to stagnant flooding, submergence and salinity had great promise to improve food security and livelihoods of the poor farmers of Sundarban area. The study revealed that small and marginal farmers accepted the new varieties very readily if seeds were produced locally. Informal seed systems had better promise for small and marginal farmers live in fragile ecosystem of Sundarban. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-related uncertainty refers to the inability to predict the scale, intensity, and impact of climate change on human and natural environments. Debates of uncertainty in climate change have emerged as a 'super wicked' problem for scientists and policy makers alike. The article draws on ongoing research in different socio-ecological and cultural settings in India (Kutch, the Sundarbans and Mumbai) and introduces the heuristic of the 'above', 'middle' and 'below' to explore how climate change and uncertainty are understood and experienced by diverse actors. Responses from 'above' (especially by planners and policy makers) tend to be directed towards controlling uncertainty through top-down, techno-managerial solutions whereas scientists tend to rely on quantitative assessments and models based on probabilistic scenarios. These may have little to do with the experiences and lived realities of local people, especially in the global South, who are often at the frontline of climate change. Also at the local level, climate-related uncertainties seldom stand alone, rather they closely interact with other socio-economic drivers of change that create new uncertainties and vulnerabilities, especially for poor and powerless people constraining their adaptation choices. This article demonstrates deep differences in ways different actors understand and experience climate change and uncertainty. It argues that diverse knowledge and approaches need to be deployed to understand and embrace climate related uncertainties in order to facilitate socially just adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nutrient resorption efficiency is an important nutrient conservation and ecophysiological mechanism of mangroves growing in saline environments. This study investigated the nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium resorption efficiency of Avicennia officinalis L. growing across a salinity gradient with seasonal variations in the Sundarbans of Bangladesh. Due to decreasing salinity during the monsoon and postmonsoon seasons, the nutrient availability in soil and nutrient resorption efficiency did not vary significantly among the low-salinity, medium-salinity, and high-salinity zones. However, the nutrient availability in the medium-salinity and high-salinity zones was significantly lower than that in the low-salinity zone during the premonsoon season due to increased salinity. Consequently, nutrient resorption efficiency in the medium-salinity and high-salinity zones was significantly higher than that in the low-salinity zone during the premonsoon. Further, leaf vein density of A. officinalis in the medium-salinity and high-salinity zones was significantly higher than that in the low-salinity zone. This modification in vein density was the mechanism for the higher nutrient resorption efficiency of A. officinalis in the medium-salinity and high-salinity zones than that in the low-salinity zone. This plasticity in nutrient resorption efficiency is a physiologically adaptive mechanism that enables A. officinalis to persist in increasingly saline environments due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves are now well known to provide a range of ecosystem services that benefit local populations, though such ecosystem services are at risk from mangrove deforestation and degradation across much of the tropics. This study aimed to identify the natural and anthropogenic drivers of change that affect ecosystem services of the Sundarbans mangrove forest. Secondary data analysis and primary fieldwork were conducted in three districts in the Sundarbans region of Bangladesh to understand ecosystem service usage and the perceptions of local resource users. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services and biophysical, socio‐economic variables were analyzed to identify the range of trends and the significant drivers of change. Also, community perceptions were consulted to elicit how these changes are felt and how they affected the local ecosystem services users. Results show that most of the ecosystem services of the Sundarbans experienced negative changes over the last two decades. Time series analysis and community perceptions held a number of drivers responsible for these changes. Climatic change, rapid environmental change, demand for mangrove products on the global market, major infrastructure development and governance failure were identified as primary drivers leading to the degradation of ecosystem services of the Sundarbans. The study calls for a transformation in the stewardship of ecosystem services of the Sundarbans and other mangroves across the tropics, to escape the situation where negative environmental impacts might be difficult to reverse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves occur along the coastlines throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, supporting a wide variety of resources and services. In order to understand the responses of future climate change on this ecosystem, we need to know how mangrove species have responded to climate changes in the recent past. This study aims at exploring the climatic influences on the radial growth of Heritiera fomes from a local to global scale. A total of 40 stem discs were collected at breast height position from two different zones with contrasting salinity in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh. All specimens showed distinct tree rings and most of the trees (70%) could be visually and statistically crossdated. Successful crossdating enabled the development of two zone-specific chronologies. The mean radial increment was significantly higher at low salinity (eastern) zone compared to higher salinity (western) zone. The two zone-specific chronologies synchronized significantly, allowing for the construction of a regional chronology. The annual and monsoon precipitation mainly influence the tree growth of H. fomes. The growth response to local precipitation is similar in both zones except June and November in the western zone, while the significant influence is lacking. The large-scale climatic drivers such as sea surface temperature (SST) of equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) revealed no teleconnection with tree growth. The tree rings of this species are thus an indicator for monsoon precipitation variations in Bangladesh. The wider distribution of this species from the South to South East Asian coast presents an outstanding opportunity for developing a large-scale tree-ring network of mangroves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drastic changes in river discharge and salinity levels are threatening the phenology and morphology of the coastal mangrove forests of the Sundarbans of Bangladesh. We have used AVHRR GIMMS (1985-2006) and MODIS (2005-2010) satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to identify the temporal variation of the phenology of the mangroves. Linear interpolation and Fourier-based adjustment were applied to remove noise from the NDVI time series. Then linear regression analysis on a single area (8 km ✕ 8 km) and a composite of 36 areas for three NDVI statistics the annual minimum, annual average, and annual maximum were performed--over the time periods 1985-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2006 and 2005-2010 to identify possible functional changes in NDVI time series around the Sundarbans. Furthermore, we used fourteen LANDSAT images spanning the period 1989-2010 to estimate the spatiotemporal rate of shoreline changes over the three time periods 1989-2000, 2000-2006, and 2006-2010. A decreasing trend in the annual minimum NDVI was observed in most of the areas of the Sundarbans for the period 1990-2000. During the years 2000-2006, the trends of the three NDVI statistics became significantly positive, indicating an improvement of the mangrove phenology. In the period 2005-2010, a decreasing trend in all the NDVI variables was again dominant. The coast underwent rapid erosion from 1989-2000 and 2006-2010. However, the rate substantially declined between 2000 and 2006, when accretion was dominant. The advent of the upstream Farakka barrage caused a significant reduction in the Ganges-Gorai River discharge and increased the salinity in and around the Sundarbans. Our study concludes that this may be responsible for the degradation of mangrove phenology and accelerated erosion in the earlier and recent periods. In the interim, 2000-2006, improved river discharge and salinity levels due to the Ganges water sharing agreement (1996) and dredging of the Gorai River bed (1998-1999) enhanced the mangrove phenology and helped the coast to gain land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]