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The climate crisis has migration implications, and we need to act inclusively and urgently. Climate change impacts people's decisions to migrate largely through economic, political, technological, demographic, and socio-cultural factors, and their dynamic interlinkages. These complex issues often influence climate risks and vulnerabilities and complicate effective investment and policy actions on migration. However, there is inadequate documentation on how climate change is linked to migration and social transformation. Based on a traditional literature review and inputs from a consultation dialogue, this paper analyzes climate-induced migration in West Africa using a social transformation lens. The paper conceptualizes the climate-induced migrant as an agent of adaptation and describes the complexities of climate vulnerabilities, and its intersection with social transformation in migration decisions. A social transformation conceptual framework is proposed to identify the complexities of climate-induced migration and ensure inclusive strategies are planned, implemented, and sustained. The paper discusses the need for transdisciplinary research approaches to capture various intersections of transforming socio-economic and environmental vulnerabilities across different countries and migratory landscapes. The paper also highlights the critical concern in the region regarding the "trapped population." It suggests that a social transformation lens is required to unravel the dynamics around vulnerable people unable to migrate because they do not have the resources to migrate or are constrained by cultural issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to discuss climate change, by modifying the timing of several agricultural operations, reduce the efficiency and yield of inputs leading to a lower production level. The reduction of the effects of climate change on production yields and on farmers' technical efficiency (TE) requires the adoption of adaptation strategies. This paper analyses the impact of climate change adaptation strategies adopted on maize farmers' TE in Benin. Design/methodology/approach: This paper uses an endogeneity-corrected stochastic production frontier approach based on data randomly collected from 354 farmers located in three different agro-ecological zones of Benin. Findings: Estimation results revealed that the adoption of adaptation strategies improve maize farmers' TE by 1.28%. Therefore, polices to improve farmers' access to climate change adaptation strategies are necessarily for the improvement of farmers' TE and yield. Research limitations/implications: The results of this study contribute to the policy debate on the enhancement of food security by increasing farmers' TE through easy access to climate change adaptation strategies. The improvement of farmers' TE will in turn improve the livelihoods of the communities and therefore contribute to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 1, 2 and 13. Originality/value: This study contributes to theoretical and empirical debate on the relationship between adaptation to climate change and farmers' TE. It also adapts a new methodology (endogeneity-corrected stochastic production frontier approach) to correct the endogeneity problem due to the farmers' adaptation decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) serves as a credible mechanism to simultaneously address food security, climate change, and agricultural productivity. Despite the widespread adoption of CSA approaches across West Africa, many countries have still not been able to resolve the problems of food insecurity and rural poverty. This systematic review evaluates published evidence on the types of CSA practices, the determinants and benefits of adoption, and the barriers confronting the adoption of CSA practices across West Africa, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analyses statement checklist. Articles published in English from January 2010 to March 2023 investigating the benefits of and barriers to the adoption of CSA practices in West Africa were retrieved from ScienceDirect, Web of Science, and Scopus databases. The methodological quality of studies was assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools for use in systematic reviews. The themes emerging from the articles were extracted, and a summary was provided to illustrate each theme. After applying the eligibility criteria, 12 articles were included in the final review. The studies reviewed revealed that farmers used more knowledge‐, water‐, carbon‐, and nitrogen‐smart practices, compared to weather‐ and energy‐smart practices. Across the reviewed papers, factors such as the education level of farmers, age, gender, household size, membership of a social group, agricultural extension services, and access to credit/financial resources influenced CSA adoption. The reviewed studies identified that farmers who used CSA practices reported benefits such as improved soil fertility, higher yield, improved household income, climate resilience (such as overcoming the effects of drought and extreme temperatures), and food security. Some farmers adopted CSA practices to reduce the effect of droughts and high temperatures on their crops, and thus increase their resilience to climate variability and change. However, farmers' adoption is confronted with challenges related to the technicality of some CSA practices, high cost of labor for CSA implementation, lack of credit and government support, limited access to weather and climate information, limited information about CSA options, high illiteracy level of smallholder farmers, and incompatibility of some practices with farmers' crop of interest. Our findings show that most CSA practices in the studies we reviewed are not well targeted to meet farmers' crop of interest, and that governments should provide more practical training to enhance farmers' understanding of CSA practices, especially those related to weather‐ and energy‐smart initiatives. There should also be more robust financial and institutional support to improve the adoption and usage of CSA practices at all levels. Additionally, socio‐cultural factors such as values, customs, and beliefs should be properly integrated into CSA plans as they influence the adoption of CSA practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Guinea‐Bissau, an important regional biodiversity hotspot in West Africa, faces the challenge of raising awareness among the general public about the significance of natural resources for rural communities' survival and the need for biodiversity conservation. This knowledge gap hinders conservation efforts as initiatives are deemed irrelevant or unnecessary. A climate of political vulnerability, financial uncertainty and threats to media freedom are further obstacles to conservation biology. Researchers lack established communication platforms for academic dissemination. In this paper, we introduce the initiative News for Nature/PRIMACTION (2020–2022), which aimed to establish a communication channel between researchers and media agents. The project had two primary objectives: firstly, to raise awareness among the Guinea‐Bissau society about the importance of national biodiversity and conservation challenges; and secondly, to enhance the capacity of specific communicators and opinion makers. The project had several important outputs, including: i) a bi‐monthly newspaper section focused on "biodiversity conservation in Guinea‐Bissau", ii) three radio‐theatre episodes performed by a well‐known group and broadcasted nationally, iii) one song composed and sung by famous musicians, with an introduction by Jane Goodall, and iv) a website providing technical resources for journalists covering biodiversity and conservation news. Collaborators mentioned the lack of logistical conditions for traveling in the country as a major impediment in reporting conservation‐related news. We emphasize the significance of establishing direct contact and articulation between researchers and local media to promote conservation research in West African countries. In countries where science communication and environmental education outreach are not well‐established, it is crucial to bridge the challenges faced by the communities in different regions of the same country. This is especially urgent in cases where such challenges are significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization is a current concern, particularly in Africa, where it is expected to continue and increasingly threaten the effectiveness of plant biodiversity, natural carbon sinks, and the sustainability of cities. This paper investigates the structural parameters and carbon storage potential of trees in the land use units of the city of Cotonou in southern Benin. A total of 149 plots at 2500 m2 each were randomly generated, and trees with a diameter ≥ 10 cm were inventoried. ANOVA revealed that the means of structural parameters (diameter and height classes) and carbon stock rate varied significantly (p < 0.001) across land use units in the city. Tree basal area is estimated at 4.52 ± 5.24 m2 ha−1, with an average of 12.72 (13) feet ha−1. The average diameter of the trees is estimated at 57.94 ± 29.71 cm. Approximately 1000 kg ha−1 (0.94 × 103 kg ha−1) of carbon is stored in the city of Cotonou. Green spaces (1.21 × 103 kg ha−1) and roads (1.19 × 103 kg ha−1) are the units that recorded the highest carbon stocks. Khaya senegalensis, Mangifera indica, and Terminalia mentally lead the top ten species with high stock potential. This study demonstrates the contribution of urban trees to global atmospheric carbon reduction, which varies by species, land use units, and tree density. Future research could investigate an i-Tree Landscape approach for urban carbon estimation. This could reinforce urban carbon data availability for urban ecological planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the factors driving food security in West African countries. Specifically, it examines the impact of natural resource rents, institutional quality, and climate change on food security while controlling for industrialization and economic growth. Our research is motivated by the urgent need for swift policy action to address the escalating food crisis in the region and prevent any potential catastrophic consequences. Second-generation econometric techniques are utilized for accurate and reliable outcomes based on yearly datasets from West African countries from 2000 to 2020, and the countries are sub-grouped into low-income and lower-middle-income. The findings unveil the panel as heterogeneous and cross-sectionally based, and all the study variables are first differenced stationary and co-integrated in the long run. Hence, the Augmented Mean Group and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimators are utilized to explore the relationships between the variables, and the findings reveal that natural resource rents, climate change, and industrialization are detrimental to food security across the sub-groups. However, the outcomes affirm institutional quality and economic growth as beneficial drivers of food security across the sub-groups. Therefore, this study recommends that authorities of both low-income and lower-middle-income countries make substantial investments in sustainable natural resource utilization and also work towards enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of their institutions, as well as investing in environmental research to explore climate change mitigation possibilities that could enhance food security in West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to predict heavy rain and floods in Africa is urgently needed to reduce the socioeconomic costs of these events and increase resilience as climate changes. Numerical weather prediction in this region is challenging, and attention is being drawn to observationally based methods of providing short-term nowcasts (up to ∼6-h lead time). In this paper a freely available nowcasting package, pySTEPS, is used to assess the potential to provide nowcasts of satellite-derived convective rain rate for West Africa. By analyzing a large number of nowcasts, we demonstrate that a simple approach of "optical flow" can have useful skill at 2-h lead time on a 10-km scale and 4-h lead time at larger scales (200 km). A diurnal variation in nowcast skill is observed, with the worst-performing nowcasts being those that are initialized at 1500 UTC. Comparison with existing nowcasts is presented. Such nowcasts, if implemented operationally, would be expected to have significant benefits. Significance Statement: A freely available, easy-to-use nowcasting package has been applied to satellite-retrieved rainfall rates for West Africa, and extrapolations have useful skill at up to 4 h of lead time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large range of climate change impacts is expected during the twenty-first century in vulnerable regions such as West Africa, where local populations largely rely on livestock systems as their main food production and income source. As climate change threatens livestock systems in various ways, here we assess how regional livestock could be exposed to cumulated climate-related stressors in the future. Using the world's largest multi-model climate impacts simulations database ISIMIP, we find that a large part of West Africa will experience at least 5–6 cumulated multiple climate stressors before the 2030s, including amplified severe heat stress conditions and flood risks. Consequently, about 30% of the current total regional livestock could be exposed to these cumulated stressors, with sheep and goat as the most affected species. This paper brings new quantifications that may help policy makers to prioritize decisions that could prepare local populations to face multiple climate-related impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate–land interaction over West Africa has often been assessed using climate simulations, although the model-based approach suffers from the limitations of climate models for the region. In this paper, an alternative method based on the analysis of historical land cover data and standardized climatic indices is used to investigate climate–land interactions, in order to establish climatic conditions and their corresponding land cover area changes. The annual variation in land cover area changes and climatic changes are first estimated separately and then linked using various spatiotemporal scales. The results show that incidences of land cover change result from abrupt changes in climatic conditions. Interannual changes of −1.0–1.0 °C, 0–1.5 °C, and −0.5–0.5 °C, and up to ± 50 mm changes in precipitation and climatic water balance, lead to 45,039–52,133 km2, 20,935–22,127 km2, and approximately 32,000 km2 changes, respectively, while a ± 0.5 °C and ± 20 mm change represents normal climate conditions with changes below 20,000 km2. Conversely, conversions of cropland, forest, grassland, and shrubland are the main land cover change types affecting the climate. The results offer a basis for the re-evaluation of land cover change and climate information used in regional climate models simulating land–climate interactions over West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of West African Monsoon (WAM) precipitation are uncertain. To address this, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving WAM precipitation change is needed to shed light on inter-model differences and aid model development. The full forcing of increased CO2 can be decomposed into different components such as the impact of ocean warming, or the direct radiative effect of increased CO2. This paper investigates such a decomposition, analysing the effect of a uniform 4K ocean warming whilst keeping atmospheric CO2 concentrations constant. The analysis highlights several mechanisms acting to decrease WAM precipitation over a range of timescales, from days after the abrupt ocean warming, to the long-term equilibrium response. The initial decrease in WAM precipitation is caused by warming and enhanced convection over the ocean, stabilising the atmosphere inland and disrupting the monsoon inflow at low levels. Later in the response (after about 5 days), the WAM precipitation is reduced through a strengthening of the shallow circulation over West Africa, associated with changes in the large-scale temperature gradients and a local warming of the atmosphere related to a soil moisture feedback mechanism over the Sahel. Finally, from around 20 days after the SST increase, the WAM precipitation is also reduced through changes in specific humidity gradients that lead to increased potency of dry air advection into the monsoon rainband. The analysis concludes by demonstrating that the processes affecting precipitation in the early stages of the response are also relevant to the long-term equilibrium response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the development of climate vulnerability maps for three Sahelian countries - Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger - and for coastal West Africa, with a focus on the way the maps were designed to meet decision-making needs and their ultimate influence and use in policy contexts. The paper provides a review of the literature on indicators and maps in the science-policy interface. We then assess the credibility, salience, and legitimacy of the maps as tools for decision-making. Results suggest that vulnerability maps are a useful boundary object for generating discussions among stakeholders with different objectives and technical backgrounds, and that they can provide useful input for targeting development assistance. We conclude with a discussion of the power of maps to capture policy-maker attention, and how this increases the onus on map developers to communicate clearly uncertainties and limitations. The assessment of policy uptake in this paper is admittedly subjective; the article includes a discussion of ways to conduct more objective and rigorous assessments of policy impact so as to better evaluate the value and use of vulnerability mapping in decision-making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability and change greatly affect agricultural and water resource management over West Africa. This paper presents the current characteristics and projected change in regional crop water demand (CWD), irrigation requirement (IR), and water availability (WA) over West Africa. Observed and simulated daily rainfall, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and evapotranspiration are used to derive the above agro-meteorological and hydrological variables. For future periods, high-resolution climate data from three regional climate models under two different scenarios, i.e., representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are considered. Evaluation of the characteristics of present-day CWD, IR, and WA indicated that the ensemble mean of the model-derived outputs reproduced the prevailing spatial patterns of CWD and IR. Moreover, the wetter part of the domain, especially along the southern coast, was correctly delineated from the drier northern regions, despite having biases. The ensemble model also simulated the annual cycle of water supply and the bimodal pattern of the water demand curves correctly. In terms of future projections, the outcomes from the study suggest an average increase in the CWD by up to 0.808 mm/day and IR by 1.244 mm/day towards the end of the twenty-first century, compared to the baseline period. The hot-spot areas, where there is higher projected increment in CWD and IR, are over Senegal, Southern Mali, and Western Burkina Faso. In most cases, WA is projected to decrease towards the end of the twenty-first century by −0.418 mm/day. The largest decline in WA is found to be over Guinea and most of the eastern parts of West Africa. Despite the current under-utilization of the existing groundwater resources, the threat of global warming in reducing future WA and increasing CWD suggested caution on the scale of irrigation schemes and management strategies. The outcomes from the study could be a crucial input for the agricultural and water managers for introducing effective measures to ensure sustainability of irrigated farm lands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of natural hazards such as floods and droughts is a complex issue that demands integrated approaches and high-quality data. Especially in African developing countries, where information is limited, the assessment of floods and droughts, though an overarching issue that influences economic and social development, is even more challenging. This paper presents an integrated approach to assessing crucial aspects of floods and droughts in the transboundary Mékrou River basin (a portion of the Niger River basin inWest Africa), combining climatic trends analysis and the findings of a household survey. The multivariable trend analysis estimates, at the biophysical level, the climate variability and the occurrence of floods and droughts. These results are coupled with an analysis of household survey data that reveals the behaviour and opinions of local residents regarding the observed climate variability and occurrence of flood and drought events, household mitigation measures, and the impacts of floods and droughts. Based on survey data analysis, the paper provides a per-household cost estimation of floods and droughts that occurred over a 2-year period (2014-2015). Furthermore, two econometric models are set up to identify the factors that influence the costs of floods and droughts to impacted households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the global north, climate-smart fisheries (CSF) policies prioritise steps to combat CO 2 emissions from SSF, in a response to the fact that globally, CO 2 emissions from small-scale fisheries (SSFs) increased by over 5.8 times between 1950 and 2016. However, in the global south, CSF policies on SSF prioritise food and income security over CO 2 emission reduction. In this paper, we examine this apparently contrasting interpretation of CSF as a conceptual framework to interpret the case study of Sierra Leone, one of Africa's poorest countries where we found that small-scale coastal fishers are preoccupied with mitigating the impact of climate change on their food and income security rather than with lowering their CO 2 emissions. The self-image of SSF in Sierra Leone is that of being victims of climate change rather than perpetrators of it, and they justify this stance by claiming their livelihoods are being threatened by climate change. However, it could be argued that the best way to keep Sierra Leonean SSF CO 2 emissions low is to prioritise their food and income security: in other words, that food security and CO 2 reductions are complementary not contradictory. This, at any rate, is the argument of the current paper. The fieldwork for this study entailed co-created research in Sierra Leone and it involved 103 stakeholders who met face-to-face and online between January and March 2022 and through village meetings. The results of this fieldwork showed that food and income security and not CO 2 emissions are the priorities in the stakeholders' interpretation of CSF. However, if food and income security are not prioritised, communities are likely to adopt maladaptive strategies which undermine marine protected areas (MPAs) and exacerbate overfishing, thereby increasing CO 2 emissions. Moreover, investment in aquaculture as a supplementary or alternative livelihood can directly increase food security and incomes and at the same time indirectly serve as a CO 2 mitigation measure. In addition, weather information communication is an important CSF measure which both protects fishers from the impact of climate change and reduces their CO 2 emissions. Accordingly, we argue that the contrast between reducing CO 2 emissions and protecting food security from climate change may be more apparent than real in Sierra Leone coastal fisheries, since both policies may work in tandem together. This study therefore contributes a new interpretation of CSF in the global south: instead of seeing it as posing a conflict between CO 2 emissions reductions and food security, we have shown the two objectives can be complementary. The wider implication of this paper is that CSF strategies for SSFs do not have to be polarised between the global north's focus on the reduction of CO 2 emissions from fishing vessels and the global south's focus on the mitigation of the impact of global warming on SSFs. There are circumstances when the two objectives may be in harmony. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout 2020, according to the Spanish Ministry of Home Office, 23,023 irregular migrants reached the coasts of the Canary Islands in Spain, 757% more than the previous year. The migrants left from the coasts of West Africa, mainly from Senegal, trying to reach the nearest European Union (EU) territory. Apart from the migrants who arrived in the Canary Islands, nearly 1,500 stayed on the way, and 594 of them died drowned or of dehydration. Behind this migratory tragedy, there is a combination of factors, with three essential ones operating synergistically: climate change, which is affecting agriculture, fishing and exacerbating coastal erosion; overfishing, which is depleting regional fisheries; and the COVID-19 pandemic, which, in addition to the victims caused, has left the region without tourism, and with an economy in recession. This paper reviews these causal factors, highlighting his influence on migration and the responsibility of migrants receiving countries – especially those in the EU – for the causes of migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding climate-cropland interactions and their impact on future projections in West Africa motivated the recent development of a modeling framework that asynchronously couples four models for regional climate, crop growth, socioeconomics, and cropland allocation. This modeling framework can be applied to a future time slice using an equilibrium approach or to a continuous projection using a transient approach. This paper compares the differences between these two approaches, examines the transient dynamics of the system, and evaluates its impact on future projections. During the course of projection up to mid-century, food demand is projected to increase monotonically, while the projected crop yield shows a high degree of temporal dynamics due to strong climate variability. Such temporal dynamics are not accounted for by the equilibrium approach. As a result, the transient approach projects a generally faster future expansion of cropland, with the largest differences over Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Senegal, and Togo. Despite the relative large differences between the two approaches in projecting land cover changes associated with cropland expansion, the projected future climate changes are fairly similar. While the additional cropland expansion in the transient approach favors a wet signal, both the transient and equilibrium approaches project a future decrease of rainfall in the western part of West Africa and an increase in the eastern part. For quantifying climate changes, the equilibrium application of the modeling framework is likely to be sufficient; for assessing climate impact on agricultural sectors and devising mitigation and adaptation strategies, transient dynamics is important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to understand how the natural dynamics of a time-varying catchment, i.e. the rainfall pattern, transforms the random component of rainfall and how this transformation influences the river discharge. To this end, this paper develops a rainfall–runoff modelling approach that aims to capture the multiple sources and types of uncertainty in a single framework. The main assumption is that hydrological systems are nonlinear dynamical systems which can be described by stochastic differential equations (SDE). The dynamics of the system is based on the least action principle (LAP) as derived from Noether’s theorem. The inflow process is considered as a sum of deterministic and random components. Using data from the Ouémé River basin (Benin, West Africa), the basic properties for the random component are considered and the triple relationship between the structure of the inflowing rainfall, the corresponding SDE that describes the river basin and the associated Fokker-Planck equations (FPE) is analysed.EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Gerten [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In West Africa, climate variations and droughts have always affected livelihoods but have also triggered adaptation strategies. A better understanding of the impacts of drought and the responses of West African populations is indispensable for researchers and decision makers in the current and future context of multiple socioeconomic and environmental changes, including climate change. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on drought in West Africa. In this paper, we highlight controversial issues and identify knowledge gaps. Although drought has been widely considered as a major problem in West Africa, there is a need to frame it within a set of multiple threats faced by local populations and to understand how droughts act as a trigger in economic, societal, and environmental contexts. The literature on responses to drought focuses on agricultural and individual responses, while diversification, migration, and tree-based or livestock-based responses are less frequently addressed. More research is needed on the effectiveness and on the unexpected effects of responses of populations, states, and NGOs, as well as on the interactions between different responses. To understand the complexity of impacts and responses, the context in which they occur and how individual and collective actions interact within households or communities needs to be taken into account. Ecosystems and agriculture offer many goods and services that are suitable for adaptation and the different landscape components should be analyzed together. Such historical, contextual, and integrated analyses would better inform new policies and projects for adaptation to climate change. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:666-681. doi: 10.1002/wcc.411 For further resources related to this article, please visit the . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time of emergence (TOE) of climate change is defined as the time when a new climate state emerges from a prior one. TOE assessment is particularly relevant in West Africa, a region highly threatened by climate change and urgently needing trustworthy climate predictions. In this paper, the TOE of precipitation change in West Africa is assessed for the first time, by analyzing 6 precipitation metrics (cumulated precipitation, number of wet and very wet days, onset and length of the rainy season) computed from the output of 29 state-of-the-art climate models. In West Sahel, climate conditions characterized by reduced occurrence of wet days are likely to emerge before 2036, leading to the possible emergence of a dryer climate in 2028–2052. In East Sahel, a wetter precipitation regime characterized by increased occurrence of very wet days is likely to emerge before 2054. Results do not provide a clear indication about a possible climate shift in the onset and length of the rainy season. Although uncertainty in climate model future projections still limits the robust determination of TOE locally, this study provides reliable time constraints to the expected climate shift in West Africa at the sub-regional scale, supporting adaptation measures to the future change in the precipitation regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change adversely affects aquatic food systems, causing livelihood challenges and other socioeconomic complexities. We use the case of the oyster sector in The Gambia to explore the awareness of climate change impacts and its effect on youth participation decisions. The paper also examines how family ties to oyster activities, climate adaptation strategies, capacity development opportunities, and introductions of climate-smart innovations influence youths' decisions to engage in oyster value chain activities. We conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) with youths to explore the factors affecting their participation decisions in the oyster sector. We then used information from the FGDs to design a survey questionnaire to collect data from 312 youths through a simple random sampling technique. Through the probit model, the results show that awareness and training opportunities on climate change, discussions about climate change with family members, training on oyster management, awareness on the use of climate-smart tools, decisions to stay or leave the oyster harvesting community, family ties to oyster harvesting, and awareness of climate change adaptation strategies, positively influenced youths' decisions to succeed in oyster activities. The educational level and climate-related stressors negatively influenced youths' succession decisions. This paper contributes to the existing literature on the need to improve the human capital of youths through relevant skills and capacity-building opportunities to encourage their participation in aquatic food systems. The study suggests that the successful engagement of youths in the oyster sector requires an enabling environment supporting the recruitment and retention of youths despite the challenges of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palm trees are multi-purpose species that are involved in several socio-economic and cultural aspects of Niger people. Indeed, palm trees significantly improve local population life. This study aims to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographical distribution of Borassus aethiopum Mart., Hyphaene thebaica (L.) Mart. and Phoenix dactylifera L. and to determine the suitable habitats for the conservation and sustainable management of these species in Niger. The maxEnt approach was used to model the species distribution. Four climatic models of CHELSA V2.1 were used: gfdl-esm4, ipsl-cm6a-lr, mpi-esm1-2h, mri-esm2-0 under two scenarios: ssp1-2.6 and ssp5-8.5 by periods 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. The mean AUC was 0.93 for Borassus aethiopum (0.93), 0.86 for Hyphaene thebaica, and 0.87 for Phoenix dactylifera. TSS test mean were 0.85, 0.69, and 0.75 respectively for Borassus aethiopum, Hyphaene thebaica, and Phoenix dactylifera. The current distribution for highly suitable habitats was 33,223 km2 (2.22%), 159,495 km2 (10.66%), and 108,189 km2 (7%) respectively for Borassus aethiopum, Hyphaene thebaica, and Phoenix dactylifera. The moderately suitable habitats were 83,019 km2 (5.55%) for Borassus aethiopum, 86,239 km2 (5.76%) for Hyphaene thebaica and 66,426 km2 (4%) Phoenix dactylifera. The lowly suitable habitats were 137,859 km2 (9.21%), 201,609 km2 (13.48%), and 333,181 km2 (22%) respectively Borassus aethiopum, Hyphaene thebaica, and Phoenix dactylifera. The highly and moderately suitable habitats for Borassus aethiopum will increase over the period 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. The highly suitable habitats of Hyphaene thebaica will be highly decreased by the period 2011–2040 and 2041–2070 than the other suitable habitats. All suitable habitats and all models of Phoenix dactylifera will decrease under the period 2041–2070. Phoenix dactylifera and Hyphaene thebaica will be much more affected by future climate change. This will also affect production rates for farmers in Niger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and identifying appropriate adaptation optons for cropping systems and management practices at spatial and temporal scales is an important prerequisite for scaling. Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum (L) R. Br.) could be regarded as a risk-reducing measure crop under climate change when coupled with tactical agronomic management practices. In this study, we assess the impacts of adaptation strategies such as cultivar type, planting windows, and fertilizer strategies on pearl millet production under rainfed farming systems over Nigeria and Senegal using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. The impact of climate change on millet yield was evaluated using a validated APSIM-millet module that utilized yield data collected through participatory research and extension approach (PREA) in contrasting environments. The climate model projections for the mid-century period (2040-2069) were compared against a baseline period of 1980-2009 for both locations. During the simulation, two millet varieties (improved local and dualpurpose) with two sowing regimes were considered comparing traditional farmers' sowing window (dry sowing) and agronomic sowing window (planting based on the onset of the rainfall) at three different fertilizer levels [low (23 kg N ha-1), medium (40.5 kg N ha-1), and high (68.5 kg N ha-1) respectively]. The performance of the APSIM-millet module was found to be satisfactory as indicated by the low Root Means Square Error (RMSE) and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) values. The range for grain yield was between 17.7% and 25.8%, while for AGB it was between 18.6% and 21.4%. The results showed that farmers' sowing window simulated slightly higher grain yield than the agronomic sowing window for improved local millet cultivar indicating yield increased by 8-12%. However, the projected changes in the mid-century (2040- 2069) resulted in a decline in yield against baseline climate for both varieties and sowing windows, indicating the negative impact of climate change (CC) on yield productivity. The comparison between dual-purpose millet and improved local millet indicates that disseminating the improved millet variety and implementing early sowing could be an effective adaptation strategy in reducing risks and losses caused by climate change. Similarly, low magnitude impacts simulated on grain yield (< -8% in Nigeria compared to > -8% in Senegal) even though both locations are in the same agroecological zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change-induced sea level rise, shoreline changes, and coastal erosion are projected to drive massive population displacement and mobility in Africa. This study was conducted to examine the pattern of shoreline changes, coastal erosion, land use/land cover dynamics, projections, and their implications on internal migration in Senegal, Kenya, and Tanzania, representing West and East Africa. The digitized shoreline was mapped into erosion, accretion, and trend analysis, which further explains the vulnerability and physical processes that could trigger human displacement within the context of environmental/climate migration. Analysis of land use and land cover dynamics was obtained from Landsat 5 TM of 1986, Landsat 7 ET of 2006, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS of 2016, and Landsat 9 OLI/TIRS of 2022 and computed using ArcGIS 10.7 for land-use change and percentage change in square kilometers was conducted to examine land use/land cover dynamics and their contributions to the risk of coastal erosion in the study regions. The outcome of the shoreline analysis reveals that 972.03 sqkm of land has been lost to coastal erosion in Senegal from 1986 to 2022 with 2016–2022 described as the period with the highest in terms of land loss. In Kenya, −463.30 sqkm of land has also been lost to coastal erosion and agents of wave processes, with 1986–2006 recording the highest share of −87.74% loss of valuable land, while in Tanzania, −1033.35 sqkm of valuable land has been lost from 1986 to 2022 to coastal erosion, with 2006–2016 alone recording −10.4634% of land loss. The result of the land use/land cover percentage change analysis indicates a massive loss of vegetation cover with a significant increase in settlement representing urbanization. The scenario analysis of the shoreline at 10, 20, and 30 m indicates that 567 persons per sqkm at 10 m, 25,904.6 persons per sqkm at 20 m, and 25,904.5 persons per sqkm will be displaced in Senegal at 30 m. In Kenya, 57,746 persons per sqkm are projected to be displaced at 10 m while 1210.5 persons per sqkm will be displaced at 20 m and 7737.32 persons per sqkm will be displaced at 30 m. In Tanzania, the maximum population density projected to be displaced at 10, 20, and 30 m is 10,260.97 per sqkm. Structured questionnaires were administered to elicit responses from coastal dwellers on their perception of coastal erosion and climate migration as part of ground truthing and the result of the survey affirms that coastal erosion and its exposure are the major drivers of climate migration in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Societal Impact Statement: Rice wild relatives (RWR) provide valuable genetic resources for modern rice breeding, yet knowledge gaps constrain their conservation and further utilization. To address these gaps, the potential distributions of 22 RWR taxa were modeled, and their conservation statuses were assessed. Most taxa were identified as medium priority for further conservation. Further ex‐situ collecting hotspots are in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, West Africa, and tropical Americas, while habitat protection lies in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, and West Africa. Climate change may shift equatorial habitats to higher latitudes and mountain habitats to higher altitudes. Summary: Rice wild relatives (RWR) provide valuable genetic resources for modern rice breeding. However, knowledge gaps on their geographic distributions and conservation status constrain their conservation and further utilization.To fill these critical gaps, we modeled the potential distributions of 22 RWR taxa under current climate scenarios, assessed their conservation status, both ex situ (in genebanks or botanical gardens) and in situ (in protected areas), and examined changes in taxa richness of RWR in predicted areas under future climate scenarios.The RWR were primarily distributed in tropical Asia to tropical Australia, tropical Africa, and South and Central America. We identified 4 out of 22 taxa as high priority (HP) for further conservation action and 18 taxa as medium priority (MP).Hotspots requiring further collecting for ex situ conservation are concentrated in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, West Africa, and tropical Americas. Meanwhile, habitat protection should be enhanced in Southeast and South Asia, Northern Australia, and West Africa. Under future climate change, suitable habitats near the equator are expected to shift toward higher latitudes and some in lower‐latitude basins may become unsuitable due to excessive heat, resulting in decreased taxa richness in these areas. Additionally, suitable habitats in high mountain areas may shift to higher altitudes, potentially augmenting taxa richness in the highlands. Our findings provide vital insights to guide future rescue conservation efforts for RWR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Comprehensive remote sensing survey of the monumental funerary landscapes of SE Mauritania. • Characterisation of three newly documented prehistoric tumulus fields. • A size-based classification system for simple stone tumuli in the Sahara is presented. • First application of Gini coefficients to the study of prehistoric funerary landscapes. • Discussion of socio-economic dynamics in the pre-Islamic Sahara-Sahel ecotone. The archaeological record of southeastern Mauritania has considerable potential to contribute to longstanding anthropological debates in world prehistory, such as early cereal domestication or the emergence and organization of complex societies, although research remains limited. The archaeological study of funerary rites offers invaluable insights into cultural attitudes towards the dead and the socio-economic dynamics of the living. The materiality of remembrance is a political statement, rooted on the ability of different social agents to mobilize labor pools and networks of obligations within a given cultural framework. As such, understanding the spatial distribution and size variability in burial monuments within funerary landscapes provides insights into the social energetics of ancestor memorialization. To that end, this paper first presents a size-based classification system for pre-Islamic conical tumulus cairns in the highlands of southeastern Mauritania, West Africa, that has much wider applicability within prehistoric Saharan archaeology. Through the first application of Gini coefficients to the study of funerary landscapes, the paper then analyses the spatial distribution and degree of monument size variability within large, spatially bounded clusters ("tumulus fields") in Dhar Tichitt in order to contextualize the socio-economic dynamics of labor mobilization at three previously undocumented tumulus fields in the western Tagant Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A ground-based field campaign was conducted in southern West Africa from mid-June to the end of July 2016 within the framework of the Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) project. It aimed to provide a high-quality comprehensive data set for process studies, in particular of interactions between low-level clouds (LLCs) and boundary-layer conditions. In this region missing observations are still a major issue. During the campaign, extensive remote sensing and in situ measurements were conducted at three supersites: Kumasi (Ghana), Savè (Benin) and Ile-Ife (Nigeria). Daily radiosoundings were performed at 06:00 UTC, and 15 intensive observation periods (IOPs) were performed during which additional radiosondes were launched, and remotely piloted aerial systems were operated. Extended stratiform LLCs form frequently in southern West Africa during the nighttime and persist long into the following day. They affect the radiation budget and hence the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer and regional climate. The relevant parameters and processes governing the formation and dissolution of the LLCs are still not fully understood. This paper gives an overview of the diurnal cycles of the energy-balance components, near-surface temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction as well as of the conditions (LLCs, low-level jet) in the boundary layer at the supersites and relates them to synoptic-scale conditions (monsoon layer, harmattan layer, African easterly jet, tropospheric stratification) in the DACCIWA operational area. The characteristics of LLCs vary considerably from day to day, including a few almost cloud-free nights. During cloudy nights we found large differences in the LLCs' formation and dissolution times as well as in the cloud-base height. The differences exist at individual sites and also between the sites. The synoptic conditions are characterized by a monsoon layer with south-westerly winds, on average about 1.9 km deep, and easterly winds above; the depth and strength of the monsoon flow show great day-to-day variability. Within the monsoon layer, a nocturnal low-level jet forms in approximately the same layer as the LLC. Its strength and duration is highly variable from night to night. This unique data set will allow us to test some new hypotheses about the processes involved in the development of LLCs and their interaction with the boundary layer and can also be used for model evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural communities in West Africa have long adopted a variety of coping and adaptation strategies to periods of climate variability and risks. These strategies have mostly been shaped by prevailing indigenous knowledge systems and shared understandings of the underlying causes of climate events. Despite the increasing scientific and policy attention to climate perceptions and integration of indigenous knowledge in climate governance, there is still a lag in going further to probe and consider the socio-cultural and cognitive systems that shape local appreciation of climate change risks and responses. Based largely on qualitative interviews, and complementary household surveys, the paper draws on the concepts of 'mental' and 'cognised' models to examine drought and climate change risk perceptions and responses in the rural savannah of North-eastern Ghana. Local farmers generally allude to changes in rainfall patterns and prolonged intra-seasonal dry spells. Based on subscriptions to local models of blame in explaining climate risks and impacts, it is also seen that prevailing socio-cultural beliefs and understandings of environmental events tend to inform the responses of farmers in addressing these perceived risks and impacts. The paper advocates for ongoing climate action and policy processes to consider the complexity of different actors and context (socio-cultural, institutional, power structures) in enhancing sustainable adaptation and mitigation measures in vulnerable rural communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In sub-Saharan Africa, temperatures are generally conducive to malaria transmission, and rainfall provides mosquitoes with optimal breeding conditions. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of future climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa using community-based vector-borne disease models, TRIeste (VECTRI). This VECTRI model, based on bias-corrected data from the Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), was used to simulate malaria parameters, such as the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Due to the lack of data on confirmed malaria cases throughout West Africa, we first validated the forced VECTRI model with CMIP6 data in Senegal. This comparative study between observed malaria data from the National Malaria Control Program in Senegal (Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme, PNLP, PNLP) and malaria simulation data with the VECTRI (EIR) model has shown the ability of the biological model to simulate malaria transmission in Senegal. We then used the VECTRI model to reproduce the historical characteristics of malaria in West Africa and quantify the projected changes with two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). The method adopted consists of first studying the climate in West Africa for a historical period (1950–2014), then evaluating the performance of VECTRI to simulate malaria over the same period (1950–2014), and finally studying the impact of projected climate change on malaria in a future period (2015–2100) according to the ssp245 ssp585 scenario. The results showed that low-latitude (southern) regions with abundant rainfall are the areas most affected by malaria transmission. Two transmission peaks are observed in June and October, with a period of high transmission extending from May to November. In contrast to regions with high latitudes in the north, semi-arid zones experience a relatively brief transmission period that occurs between August, September, and October, with the peak observed in September. Regarding projections based on the ssp585 scenario, the results indicate that, in general, malaria prevalence will gradually decrease in West Africa in the distant future. But the period of high transmission will tend to expand in the future. In addition, the shift of malaria prevalence from already affected areas to more suitable areas due to climate change is observed. Similar results were also observed with the ssp245 scenario regarding the projection of malaria prevalence. In contrast, the ssp245 scenario predicts an increase in malaria prevalence in the distant future, while the ssp585 scenario predicts a decrease. These findings are valuable for decision makers in developing public health initiatives in West Africa to mitigate the impact of this disease in the region in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mineral dusts present in the atmosphere can play an important role in climate over West Africa and surrounding regions. However, current understanding regarding how dust aerosols influence climate of West Africa is very limited. In this study, a regional climate model is used to investigate the potential climatic impacts of dust aerosols. Two sets of simulations driven by reanalysis and Earth System Model boundary conditions are performed with and without the representation of dust processes. The model, regardless of the boundary forcing, captures the spatial and temporal variability of the aerosol optical depth and surface concentration. The shortwave radiative forcing of dust is negative at the surface and positive in the atmosphere, with greater changes in the spring and summer. The presence of mineral dusts causes surface cooling and lower troposphere heating, resulting in a stabilization effect and reduction in precipitation in the northern portion of the monsoon close to the dust emissions region. This results in an enhancement of precipitation to the south. While dusts cause the lower troposphere to stabilize, upper tropospheric cooling makes the region more prone to intense deep convection as is evident by a simulated increase in extreme precipitation. In a companion paper, the impacts of dust emissions on future West African climate are investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Methods and tools to anticipate futures are growing in prominence to guide decision-making under climate change. A research agenda into the steering effects of these processes is growing but has largely ignored how imagined futures impact present-day actions beyond the Global North. This paper presents a case study analysis of anticipatory governance in a highly climate-vulnerable area - West Africa. It examines processes of anticipation through an analytical framework that identifies four distinct approaches to anticipatory governance in terms of their conceptualization of the future, implications for actions in the present, and ultimate aims intended to be realized. The study finds two dominant approaches that appear in hybrid forms which are quite technocratic in character. These hybrids assess probable or plausible futures to inform and build capacities for strategic risk reduction. Many anticipation processes are participatory, but often focus on transferring expert-based knowledge to stakeholders or discussing adaptation options rather than opening up dialogue on what and whose futures to engage with. The paper argues that more plural and critical dialogue is needed in which stakeholders have agency to shape futures and address power imbalances, particularly in these contexts where anticipation relies on western funding and science. • There are very different ideas of how to know and govern futures in the present. • Suggestions for actions in the present are quite technocratic and linear. • Anticipation largely relies on western funding, science and technologies. • International involvement is presented as technical assistance and apolitical. • Plural and critical anticipation is missing to open up and democratize futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of climate change on agricultural production are pushing countries to reconsider risk management policies in their development plans. Opportunities exist to increase agricultural production and improve the policy environment. However, policymakers lack local empirical evidence to provide local solutions to agricultural development in many developing countries, including Togo. This paper assesses farmers' willingness to pay for weather index-based insurance (WII) as a market option for sharing climatic risks. A choice modeling approach is used based on data collected from 704 randomly selected households in northern Togo, West Africa. Statistical analysis of the data shows that dry spells are the major concern of farmers and maize is perceived as the most affected food crop. Results also indicate that respondents are willing to participate in a WII market and would prefer insuring crops, such as maize over sorghum and rice against drought by paying on average about $14.5 per hectare. The results show that WII should not be offered standalone, but interlinked with other factors such as providing drought tolerant and high yielding varieties; loans to organized farmers' groups; and weather information through TV, radio and mobile phones in local languages, while encouraging education to enable the diffusion of more advisory services. These factors are likely to influence positively farmers' preferences in participating in a WII market. Key policy insights Very often, insurance is seen as a magic bullet in agricultural risk management policy discussions. A standalone WII could suffer from low adoption, a problem that calls for other policy options. As a climate change adaptation policy, WII could be bundled with other risk-reducing options for a better uptake and to improve farmers' welfare. WII can be an effective channel for farm credit facilities and advisory services, as well as other agricultural risk management interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Largely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the West African populations could be severely impacted by climate change and variability. In this paper, we performed a literature review relating to perceptions of climate change and variability in West Africa, followed by an in-depth comparison between perceptions by rural dwellers of Burkina Faso and trends in meteorological data to discuss the importance of perceptions vis-à-vis climate trends in migration decision. Results showed that respondents perceived increasing temperature and worsening rainfall conditions over 1988–2007 matching with findings of previous studies but inconsistent with the trends observed in rainfall data. Given that climate change is recognized as a key driver of mobility on the one hand and the fact that climate change perceptions influence decision to migrate on the other hand, our results suggest to jointly include perceptions and climate data in future research on environmental migration in order to improve the understanding of household's decision in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Africa is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This paper analyzed the impacts of climate change on economic growth in Anglophone West Africa with similar background, during the periods 1969-2016. Five growth model equations have been developed to incorporate climate change variables into the model. Panel data estimations such as the fixed effect model, random effect model and Hausman test were used. The results generated show that four equations required the use of the fixed effect, the agriculture equation model required the use of the random effect model. In the fixed effect models, the results show that the growth of human capital has a negative (-0.08 and -0.23) and significant (0.09* and 0.023*) impact on the growth rate of the services and manufacturing sectors. In Anglophone West African countries, the growth rate of the agriculture sector and temperature are statistically significant (0.008 ** and 0.089*) and have a negative impact (-2.04 and -17.7) on the growth rate of GDP. In the random effect model for agriculture, the growth rate of rainfall has the highest impact on the growth of agriculture in Anglophone West Africa than the impact of temperature on the region. Lack of sufficient rainfall reduces growth of the agriculture sector. In relative terms, change in rainfall pattern is more harmful to agriculture in comparison to the change in temperature in this region. The consequences of climate change in the region are sluggish economic performance and growth, underdevelopment, poverty and human misery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Connecting science with policy has always been challenging for both scientists and policymakers. In Ghana, Mali and Senegal, multi-stakeholder national science-policy dialogue platforms on climate-smart agriculture (CSA) were setup to use scientific evidence to create awareness of climate change impacts on agriculture and advocate for the mainstreaming of climate change and CSA into agricultural development plans. Based on the platforms' operations and achievements, we used semi-structured questionnaire interviews and reviewed technical reports produced by the platforms to analyse how their modes of operation and achievements improve understanding of the science-policy interfaces between agricultural and climate change decision making. Results showed that these platforms constitute an innovative approach to effectively engaging decision-makers and sustainably mainstreaming climate change into development plans. Effective science-policy interaction requires: (a) institutionalizing dialogue platforms by embedding them within national institutions, which improves their credibility, relevance and legitimacy among policymakers; (b) two-way communication, which contributes substantially to the co-development of solutions that address climate change vulnerabilities and impacts; and (c) relevant communication products and packaging of evidence that aligns with country priorities, which facilitates its uptake in policy-making processes. We conclude with a framework of sustainable operation for such platforms based on lessons learnt in the three countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering (SAG) is proposed to offset global warming; however, the use of this approach can an impact on the hydrological cycle. We used simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (G3 simulation) to analyze the impacts of SAG on precipitation (P) and to determine its responsible causes in West Africa and Sahel region. CMIP5 historical data were first validated, the results obtained are consistent with observational data. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario RCP4.5, a slight increase is found in the West Africa Region relative to present‐day climate. The dynamic processes especially, the monsoon shifts are responsible for this precipitation change. Under RCP4.5, during the monsoon period, reductions in P are 0.86%, 0.80% relative to the present‐day climate in the Northern and Southern Sahel, respectively, while precipitation is increased by 1.04% in the West African Region. Under SAG, we find a 3.71% decrease of precipitation in the West African Region while the precipitation decrease is 17.4% and 8.47% respectively in the North Sahel and South Sahel. This decrease in monsoon precipitation is mainly explained by changes in dynamics, which lead to weakened monsoon circulation and a shift in the distribution of monsoon precipitation. This result suggests that SAG deployment to balance all warming can be harmful to rainfall in WAR if the amount of SO2 to be injected into this tropical area is not taken into consideration. Plain Language Summary: Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering (SAG) deployment has been proposed to reduce temperature increase in the context of global warming but its impacts on the hydrological cycle and the underlying causes need to be evaluated on the regional scale. While some effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering on the water cycle are uncertain, various studies suggest that there could be considerable changes in regional rainfall. Climate simulations (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: CMIP5 and Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project: GeoMIP) are used in this work to quantify the impacts on the monsoon rainfall in West Africa. We determine the changes in precipitation and the mechanisms responsible for these changes in West Africa during summer using Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering. Under global warming, while a slight decrease of precipitation is noted in the Sahel region, a significant decrease in rainfall is obtained over the West Africa region and the Sahel region under SAG. The main processes responsible for the changes of precipitation under SAG are determined based on the decomposition approach. Results show that changes in precipitation are largely related to changes in dynamic processes (monsoon circulation). Key Points: We determine the changes of West African Summer Monsoon precipitation using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering injections climate modelsIncrease of precipitation is presented under global warming while its decrease is obtained with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering modelsThese changes of West African Summer Monsoon precipitation are mainly driven by the dynamic processes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the potential response of the seasonal cycle of heatwaves (HWDI) and dry (CDD) and wet (CWD) spell indices over West Africa for the near- (2031–2060) and the far-future periods (2071–2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations. Despite the fact that some relative biases (an underestimation of 30% for CDD, an overestimation of about 60% for CWD, and an overestimation of about 50% for HWDI) exist, during the historical period (1976–2005) in general, the CORDEX simulations and their ensemble mean outperform the seasonal variability in the above-mentioned indices over three defined subregions of West Africa (i.e., the Gulf of Guinea and Western and Eastern Sahel). They show high correlation coefficients (0.9 in general) and less RMSE. They project an increase (about 10 and 20 days) in heatwave days for both the near- and far-future periods over the whole West African region under both RCP scenarios. In addition, projections indicate that the Sahel regions will experience a decrease (about 5 days) in wet spell days from March to November, while in the Gulf of Guinea, a decrease (about 3 days) is projected throughout the year, except in the CCCLM simulation, which indicates an increase (about 5 days) during the retreat phase of the monsoon (October to December). Our results also highlight an increase (about 80%) in dry spells over the Sahel regions that are more pronounced during the March–November period, while over the Gulf of Guinea, an increase (about 40%) is projected over the entire year. Moreover, the months of increasing dry spells and decreasing wet spells coincide, suggesting that countries in these regions could be simultaneously exposed to dry seasons associated with a high risk of drought and heatwaves under future climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is one of the greatest challenges of this century. It impacts all nations worldwide, particularly Sahelian nations in Africa. This article evaluates climate change's impact on aggregate agriculture, crop, livestock, and fishery production in Burkina Faso. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied, and data were collected from 1990 to 2019. Considering agriculture at the aggregate level, the findings have shown an insignificant effect of rainfall and temperature but a positive impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the long run. Only rainfall negatively affects agriculture in Burkina Faso in the short run. For crop production, only CO2 is found to have a short-run negative effect. The findings indicated that temperature has a short-term favorable effect on livestock production, whereas CO2 benefits it in the long term. The long-run time series analysis of fishery production has indicated a detrimental impact of rainfall. In the short term, temperature, rainfall, and CO2 have a detrimental impact on fishery production in Burkina Faso. However, CO2 is found to have a short-run negative impact. Promoting and facilitating livestock production and irrigation systems and enhancing climate system information (CSI) could lessen agriculture's sensitivity to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agrometeorological services, as part of weather and climate services, are expected to play a key role in supporting sub-Saharan agriculture facing climate change and variability. In the Sahel, smallholder farmers relying on rainfed crop production systems are particularly vulnerable to climate change and variability because of low resilience and coping capacity. The provision of agrometeorological services is growing across Africa, but they often remain inaccessible for the majority of smallholder farmers or are not very relevant to support on-the-ground decision-making. Our work aims to demonstrate the hypothesis that agrometeorological services can effectively improve agricultural productivity and sustainability provided that appropriate mechanisms are put in place to ensure access, uptake and action. The paper illustrates the case study of Burkina Faso, where the National Meteorological Service, with the support of the World Meteorological Organization, engaged in the provision of accessible, reliable and relevant agrometeorological services for farmers. The study demonstrates that farmers, even in remote rural areas, are willing to profit from weather and climate services for strategic and tactical decisions in agricultural management because of relevant economic benefit. These benefits can be summarized as a 40% reduction in production costs and a 41% increase in income. Results also highlight environmental positive impacts such as the reduction by 50% in the use of fertilizers. Nevertheless, the study concludes that in order to scale-up weather and climate services in West Africa, a new business model released from the development projects approach should be explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We assessed land suitability for rainfed maize under current and future climates. • A plausible range of future climate was derived from multi-model projections. • Interaction among criteria was handled with a fuzzy measure modelling approach. • About 91% of W/Africa is at least moderately suitable for maize in current climate. • Future climate change will affect suitability for maize in >43% of West Africa. Abstract Crop production in West Africa is largely under rainfed conditions, making the system vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. However, the impact of future climate on the geographic range of many crops in West Africa is still uncertain. This is exacerbated by considerable uncertainty in projecting future West African climate by global circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, the current land suitability for rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) production in West Africa and how it would change in response to a range of future climate changes were assessed. A novel non-additive approach involving the integration of a fuzzy measure modelling procedure and the Choquet integral to deal with non-linear relationships among criteria was introduced. The supervised and unsupervised variants of the approach and the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) aggregators were evaluated and compared using data on the current climate, soil characteristics, and actual maize yield estimates at some locations across the region. The supervised fuzzy measure modelling outperformed the unsupervised variant and the OWA operators, demonstrating the importance of considering interaction among criteria and incorporating human reasoning in multicriteria analysis. Consequently, the supervised modelling approach was used to estimate suitability scores for rainfed maize for the current and a range of plausible future climates which were generated from unique combinations of temperature and rainfall percentile values (5th, 50th and 95th) from 25 and 32 GCMs projections under the RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Under the current climate in West Africa, the combined suitable/highly suitable areas for rainfed maize production are in the humid savanna zones. In contrast, the forest region to the south exhibited moderate suitability with the semi-arid savanna zones being marginally suitable. Relative to the current climate in which 91.3% of West Africa is at least moderately suitable for maize production, suitability for maize will change in at least 43% of West Africa in response to future climate change. Across all scenarios and years, future suitability in the semi-arid region of the Sudano-Sahelian savannas shows strong sensitivity to uncertainty in rainfall projections. However, regardless of the trajectory of future rainfall projection, the 95th percentile temperature projection will decrease suitability in about 15% of the West African region by 2080 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Because of the incorporation of uncertainties of future climate projections in this analysis, the results from this study can be used in the development of flexible climate adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is one of the greatest challenges of this century. It impacts all nations worldwide, particularly Sahelian nations in Africa. This article evaluates climate change's impact on aggregate agriculture, crop, livestock, and fishery production in Burkina Faso. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied, and data were collected from 1990 to 2019. Considering agriculture at the aggregate level, the findings have shown an insignificant effect of rainfall and temperature but a positive impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the long run. Only rainfall negatively affects agriculture in Burkina Faso in the short run. For crop production, only CO2 is found to have a short-run negative effect. The findings indicated that temperature has a short-term favorable effect on livestock production, whereas CO2 benefits it in the long term. The long-run time series analysis of fishery production has indicated a detrimental impact of rainfall. In the short term, temperature, rainfall, and CO2 have a detrimental impact on fishery production in Burkina Faso. However, CO2 is found to have a short-run negative impact. Promoting and facilitating livestock production and irrigation systems and enhancing climate system information (CSI) could lessen agriculture's sensitivity to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development actors in West Africa have been promoting agroecological farming as a solution to combat climate change and to create more sovereign food systems that enhance the autonomy of local smallholders. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence regarding the actual implementation of such programs and their potential to empower smallholders, especially in the West African region. Drawing on co-produced knowledge from anthropological fieldwork in Western Senegal, the case study of an alternative food network explores the interlinkages between the promotion of agroecology, anti-migration policies, and unequal power and market relations. Informed by decolonial political ecologies, the analysis reveals different layers of coloniality which complicate embodied effects on horticultural smallholders. The authors conclude that instead of fostering the emancipation of smallholders, development actors promote a labor-intensive and unprofitable way of farming that exploits local resources for the sake of green agendas and white markets. This article highlights the need for a critical reflection on the potential limitations of agroecology and calls for a more nuanced approach that considers the complex realities of smallholders in West Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distribution and biology of birds of prey species have been well-documented in most parts of the globe. Knowledge gaps are continuously shrinking due to more research, new technologies and increasing possibilities to reach remote areas. However, there are still some regions where data on birds of prey are scarce due to various reasons. Some parts of West Africa are such places, mostly because civil wars and the outbreak of Ebola prevented any kind of research. In the period 2015–2017, a butterfly research project in Nimba Mountains, Liberia offered opportunity to collect data also on birds of prey species. This article aims to provide a comprehensive list of birds of prey species in the area and compare it to other available historic and recent lists. In the frame of the project, 20 species were recorded. The results of comparing historic and recent records show that species of dry open habitats appeared and even settled in Nimba Mountains' predominantly rainforest habitat. That suggests a habitat shift likely due to both climate change and human land transformation activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within West Africa (WA), poverty, population growth rate and food insecurity are high and most agriculture is conducted at an unmechanised level, reliant on rain-fed conditions. As with elsewhere around the world, there is a clear fingerprint of climate change on WA, with increasing temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns. As the century progresses and climate change intensifies, so too will the impact on rain-fed horticulture. This creates an urgent need to understand and synthesis the responses of horticultural crops to climate change and identify adaptation options. This review provides an overview of climate change across WA and the impacts on key horticultural crop groups (vegetables, plantations, fruits and root and tubers) and identifies regions within WA where these crops may be more or less vulnerable to changing conditions. Adaptation actions and strategies-ranging from education, introduction of new cultivars and development of effective cropping systems, to transference of skills from other regions and expansion of farmer-government-NGO collaborations are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviewed the prospects for climate-smart agriculture (CSA) development and promotion in West Africa as well as lessons learnt and challenges with a focus on climate change and variability. It was evident from the literature that West Africa is vulnerable to climate change and variability, on account of its socio-economic and physical characteristics. As climate change and variability persists, the region's quest to use agriculture as the mainstream opportunity to deliver on set targets of the sustainable development goals will be strongly challenged without appropriate interventions. Adopting CSA seems to be a suitable strategy to achieving food security while also mitigating and adapting to climate-related risks. Among numerous CSA technologies, the review found (1) agroforestry (farmer-managed natural regenerations), soil and water conservation technologies (zai, half-moon, tie/contour ridges, conservation agriculture) and (3) climate information services as highly valued promising options for climate change adaptation and risk management in West Africa. In addition, institutional settings at the community, national and regional levels such as the establishment of multi-stakeholder innovation platforms, national science policy dialogue platforms on CSA in parts of West Africa and the formulation of the West Africa CSA Alliance were found to be crucial in promoting capacity development and awareness of CSA technologies and innovations in the region. The review found that CSA still faces a number of challenges, including: lack of clear conceptual understanding, limited enabling policy and financing. The prospects of CSA in West Africa hinge on the capacities of farming households and the region's national institutions to understand the environmental, economic and social challenges in the context of climate change, and consequently self-mobilize to develop and implement responsive policies at appropriate scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the role of intra-regional trade on food availability within the context of global climatic change in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, the study uses a module of trade cost minimization built within a bio-economic optimization model of cropland allocation. The results show that the climate-induced trade pattern in ECOWAS depends on the prevailing socio-economic conditions during the century. No specific pattern of trade flows is predicted but several countries may become dependent on food imports outside of ECOWAS. An adjustment of the common external tariffs (CET) may reduce food import costs. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could significantly reduce outside dependence. Finally, actions are urgently needed to be taken to foster agricultural production in ECOWAS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the level of vulnerability of human and natural systems to climate variability and change, and how investing in adaptive capacity now will prevent losing billions of dollars in damages in the future are pivotal to making decisions and developing policies related to coastal adaptation. The research presented in this paper focuses on developing a methodological framework to perform a cost-benefit-analysis of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies (i.e., protect, accommodate, or retreat options). The method is tested in pilot-site case-studies along the West African countries of Ivory Coast, Ghana, Togo, and Benin. The criterion used in the cost-benefit analysis is the Net Present Value (NPV) for the different risk management alternatives, according to different time horizons and dynamic adaptation pathways to 2100, discount rates and low- and high-cost estimates. Overall, the research makes evident that coastal protection investment costs ensuring the lowest residual risk (virtually zero risk) to 2100 are so high that they are unlikely to be paid back by avoided damages. Planned retreat (coastal setbacks and/or accommodation) allows to obtain most of the benefits (50%–98%) at a fraction of the protection costs (2%–12%). Furthermore, the research provides strong evidence that, when coastal risks are dominated by frequent coastal floods (10-year return period), the cost recovery period for climate-proofing of buildings is low (a few decades) compared to protect or setback measures. Finally, the research illustrates that disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies cannot be examined in general, but that location specific analysis of both costs and benefits is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models are vital to the assessment of the impacts of climate change in the Central African regions. Establishing how well models reproduce key processes is important to the confidence we attach to these tools. This study examines model representation of the September to November characteristics, such as location and intensity, of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) north and south in a sample of 16 commonly evaluated CMIP5 and CMIP6 models and in two reanalyses (ERA5 and MERRA2). The analysis evolves to assess key drivers of the AEJ from energetic interactions, the characteristics of mid-level highs and thermal lows and the nature of surface thermal heating. Over West Africa, several models miss the southeast-northwest orientation of the AEJ-N core, leading to a gap of around 60 in the location of the jet while most CMIP5 models also fail to locate AEJ-S over southern Central Africa. In general, the spread of simulated AEJ locations around reanalyses is larger for the CMIP5 sample compared to CMIP6 equivalent models, indicating improvement from CMIP5 to CMIP6 in this 16 model subset. However, this improvement in some CMIP6 models (e.g. GISS-E2-1-G and MIROC6) is not related to a maximum surface meridional gradient in temperature. Most CMIP5 and CMIP6 models underestimate the surface temperature gradient over AEJ-N region. As a first order diagnostic of the jet's acceleration, most coupled models better simulate the atmospheric energetic interactions over AEJ-N region that leads to its strong contribution to AEJ-N maintenance compared to AEJ-S. This study strengthens our understanding of the mid-level circulation over Central Africa by detecting gaps in the mechanisms maintaining the AEJ in coupled models and highlights processes that should be improved in future ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat waves can be one of the most dangerous climatic hazards affecting the planet, having dramatic impacts on the health of humans and natural ecosystems as well as on anthropogenic activities, infrastructures and economy. Based on climatic conditions in West Africa, the urban centres of the region appear to be vulnerable to heat waves. The goals of this work are firstly to assess the potential uncertainties encountered in heat wave detection and secondly to analyse their recent trend in West Africa cities during the period 1993–2020. This is done using two state-of-the-art reanalysis products, namely the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), as well as two local station datasets, namely Dakar–Yoff in Senegal and Aéroport Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan, in Côte d'Ivoire. An estimate of station data from reanalyses is processed using an interpolation technique: the nearest neighbour to the station with a land sea mask ≥0.5. The interpolated temperatures from local stations in Dakar and Abidjan show slightly better correlation with ERA5 than with MERRA. Three types of uncertainty are discussed: the first type of uncertainty is related to the reanalyses themselves, the second is related to the sensitivity of heat wave frequency and duration to the threshold values used to monitor them, and the last one is linked to the choice of indicators and the methodology used to define heat waves. Three sorts of heat wave have been analysed, namely those occurring during daytime, nighttime, and both daytime and nighttime concomitantly. Four indicators have been used to analyse heat waves based on 2 m temperature, humidity, 10 m wind or a combination of these. We found that humidity plays an important role in nighttime events; concomitant events detected with wet-bulb temperature are more frequent and located over the northern Sahel. Strong and more persistent heat waves are found in the continental (CONT) region. For all indicators, we identified 6 years with a significantly higher frequency of events (1998, 2005, 2010, 2016, 2019 and 2020), possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean corresponding to El Niño events for some years. A significant increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in the cities has been observed during the last decade (2012–2020); this is thought to be a consequence of climate change acting on extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]