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The circular bioeconomy offers solutions to curb the effects of climate change by focusing on the use of renewable, biological resources to produce food, energy, materials, and services. The substitution of fossil products by wood-based products can help avoid or reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the life cycle of products. However, it is important to understand the potential impacts of large-scale material substitution at the market level. This study aimed to assess the role of selected wood-based products in the circular bioeconomy, the possible changes in their markets, and investigate which elements could ensure the environmental sustainability of these products. The demand for graphic paper has declined over the last 15 years, while the demand for packaging has increased. Cross-laminated timber and man-made cellulosic fibres have seen their global consumption increase over the last decade. While there are benefits associated with the substitution of non-renewable materials by wood-based products, there is still limited understanding of the substitution effects at market-, country- and global level. Some factors enabling the further uptake of wood-based products include initiatives that stimulate technological change, incentives to produce or consume less fossil-based and more bio-based alternatives, and the promotion and marketing of wood-based products as viable alternatives to non-renewable materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme forest fires have historically been a significant concern in Canada, the Russian Federation, the USA, and now pose an increasing threat in boreal Europe. This paper deals with application of the wildFire cLimate impacts and Adaptation Model (FLAM) in boreal forests. FLAM operates on a daily time step and utilizes mechanistic algorithms to quantify the impact of climate, human activities, and fuel availability on wildfire probabilities, frequencies, and burned areas. In our paper, we calibrate the model using historical remote sensing data and explore future projections of burned areas under different climate change scenarios. The study consists of the following steps: (i) analysis of the historical burned areas over 2001–2020; (ii) analysis of temperature and precipitation changes in the future projections as compared to the historical period; (iii) analysis of the future burned areas projected by FLAM and driven by climate change scenarios until the year 2100; (iv) simulation of adaptation options under the worst-case scenario. The modeling results show an increase in burned areas under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Maintaining current temperatures (RCP 2.6) will still result in an increase in burned area (total and forest), but in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), projected burned forest area will more than triple by 2100. Based on FLAM calibration, we identify hotspots for wildland fires in the boreal forest and suggest adaptation options such as increasing suppression efficiency at the hotspots. We model two scenarios of improved reaction times—stopping a fire within 4 days and within 24 h—which could reduce average burned forest areas by 48.6% and 79.2%, respectively, compared to projected burned areas without adaptation from 2021–2099. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flooding is Aotearoa-New Zealand's most frequent natural hazard, and there is high confidence that climate change is making extreme rainfall events more frequent and intense. Additionally, there are significant development pressures which could both increase the number of people and assets at risk and the flood hazard. To date, there is no publicly available consistent approach to accurately determine flood risk on a national scale, nor for how this may be changing; although there is a growing legislative requirement to provide quality information over multiple spatial scales. This paper draws on empirical data to gain insights on how to best manage changing flood risks in Aotearoa-New Zealand from the perspective of centrally organised entities. Findings confirm the need for a nationally consistent approach to flood risk management, better understanding of Aotearoa's communities and their vulnerability to floods, equitable access to quality information and decision-support tools, and better understanding of the economic impacts on differing communities, regions and places. The paper concludes that to achieve a flood-resilient Aotearoa, flood governance needs to be reconfigured to achieve national consistency in flood risk management whilst enabling targeted variability at the local scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal dunes, formed and shaped by aeolian sediment transport, play a crucial role in ecosystem services and act as natural flood and coastal erosion defenses. This paper delves into theoretical equations and numerical models predicting sediment transport. Numerical models like cellular automata, XBeach-DUNA, the coastal dune model, and others are analyzed for their ability to simulate dune morphology, erosion processes, and vegetation impacts accurately. Evaluated are field observation and measurement techniques, such as sand traps, impact sensors, and optical sensors, for their precision in quantifying aeolian dynamics. Further examined is the effectiveness of vegetation and fencing in dune stabilization, noting species-specific responses and the influence of fence design on sediment accumulation. These tools offer insights into optimizing aeolian sediment management for coastal protection. By conducting a systematic review and connecting theoretical, empirical, and modeling findings, this study highlights the complex challenge of measuring and managing aeolian sediment transport and proposes integrated strategies for enhancing coastal dune resilience against the backdrop of climate change and erosion. This study's objectives to bridge gaps in current understanding are met, highlighting the need for a multidisciplinary approach to coastal dune management and conservation, especially combining wind- and wave-driven processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most pressing challenges of climate change and has drawn noticeable research interest over the past few decades. Factors induced by global climate change, such as temperature increase, have resulted in both direct and indirect changes in sea levels at different spatial scales. Various climatic and non-climatic events contribute to sea level changes, posing risks to coastal and low-lying areas. Nevertheless, changes in sea level are not uniformly distributed globally due to several regional factors such as wave actions, storm surge frequencies, and tectonic land movement. The high exposure to those factors increases the vulnerability of subjected areas to SLR impacts. The impacts of events induced by climate change and SLR are reflected in biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental aspects. Different indicator-based and model-based approaches are used to assess coastal areas' vulnerabilities, response to impacts, and implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Various studies have been conducted to project future SLR impacts and evaluate implemented protection and adaptation approaches, aiding policymakers in planning effective adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce damage. This paper provides an overview of SLR and its key elements, encompassing contributing factors, impacts, and mitigation and adaptation measures, featuring a dedicated section on the Arabian Gulf, a semi-enclosed sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming and climate change represent current threats for island states in the Pacific Ocean region. Next to global warming and the effects of Sea Level Rise, the resulting vulnerability of coastal offshore, shoreline, and oceanic ecosystems are additional factors that need to be considered urgently. As a coastal atoll area and part of the Pacific Small Island States, Tuvalu is now under threat with its cultural landscapes due to climate change impacts. The country and its landscapes surround an area of only 26 km2, where 11,810 people live in hostile climatic conditions. The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change projected that Tuvalu would probably be the first country to sink underwater. The question arises about sustainable solutions for ongoing security and a habitable situation for people, culture, landscapes, and ecosystems. Unstable agricultural crop production, fishing, and coconuts cultivation are some of the challenges on the island. The exemplary derived polynomial curve of nine different islands and their islands' population displacement behavior shows up results of hostile conditions with six islands having lost their inhabitants, and only three islands' populations have increased. This study aims to analyze the overall situation of Tuvalu and find an alternative solution to safeguard Tuvaluan people, the island ecosystems and heritage, and cultural landscapes. Specific objectives of this study are the following: (1.) Understanding the theoretical concept of climate change impacts, sea-level rise impacts, the protection of Tuvaluan people, and the islands' unique biodiversity; (2.) Analyzing the socio-economic condition, livelihoods, culture, heritage, and environmental scenarios of Tuvalu; (3.) Giving potential recommendations for creating an international network, applied research, and training for the future development of ecosystems and cultural landscapes of Tuvalu in the Pacific Ocean. This paper analyzed the present affected situation of Tuvalu; it also highlighted socio-economic and livelihoods sustainability, future scenarios, and alternative suggestion to mitigate this hostile environment of Tuvalu. GIS applications for visualizing and analyzing environmental data were one of the appropriate tools for decision-makers to support long-term planning for Tuvalu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing on evidence from in-depth interviews and a household survey, the paper provides evidence on the farmers' challenges in production, marketing and prices as well as how farmers perceive and deal with climate change impacts on coffee production in the Fero-two Peasant Association (PA) of the Wensho district of the Sidama region in southern Ethiopia. This includes prolonged dry season, erratic and insufficient rainfall, too early and too late rains and temperature rise. Unexpected heavy rains and snow events as well as weather change-driven pests and diseases negatively affect not only the volume of coffee production and quality but also the prices. The effects of climate change risks add pressure on the existing challenges such as land shortage and fragmentation, declining soil fertility and weeds. Lack of participation in decision-making and corruption are additional challenges for the coffee growers. Although the farmers rely on multiple production-related adaptation responses, most of the deployed strategies to the changing environment are less effective and short-term. The paper concluded that policy interventions should better comprehend the local vulnerability to build resilience and to undertake sustainable agricultural practices for improving the farmers' adaptive capacity to deal with the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper set out to show the impacts of COVID-19 and climate change on smallholders through the lens of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and ways to keep smallholders on the 2030 agenda. Descriptive statistical analysis of quantitative secondary data is applied to investigate the issues in question across world regions. Increasing energy and food demand have triggered greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors. If unchecked, climate change will jeopardize progress towards SDGs' agenda of ending hunger and poverty by 2030. COVID-19 exacerbates the underlying climate change impacts compromising food and water security. The widespread famines of Biblical proportions caused by COVID-19 effects are likely to cause more deaths than the virus. Improvement of water availability and food production is crucial to ending hunger and poverty. There is a need to strengthen smallholders' adaptation and mitigation capacity through cooperatives' platforms thereby reach out to smallholders who are the furthest first. International cooperation is urgent to support smallholders' adaptation of climate-smart agriculture to reduce GHG emissions thereby subdue climate impacts resulting in higher productivity, food security, poverty reduction and sustainable development. Cooperatives need support to facilitate adaptation and mitigation by applying site-specific technology to local needs and possibilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social psychologists have conducted research relevant to environmental problems for many decades. However, the climate crisis presents a new problem with distinctive aspects and distinctive urgency. This paper reviews some of the principal ways in which social psychological research and theory have approached the topic, looking at perceptions, behaviour, and impacts linked to climate change. Each of these areas is becoming more sophisticated in acknowledging the diversity of experience among groups that vary in demographics and social roles. I close by identifying three important facets for future research: a focus on social justice, an effort to participate in interdisciplinary efforts, and an emphasis on maximizing our impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change (CC) causes extreme meteorological events such as floods, droughts, water scarcity, heat waves, wildfires, and extreme cold. CC may also damage public infrastructures such as drinking water systems (DWSs) and reduce water quality from source to tap. The objective of this review paper is to provide a critical analysis of (1) the impact of CC on the three components of the DWSs: source, treatment, and distribution; (2) the perspectives of DWS employees on CC impacts and adaptation solutions for maintaining water quality; and (3) decision support systems (DSSs) that could be used by DWS employees for CC adaptation. A bibliographic research was conducted using international databases and search engines. The search for scientific articles resulted in the selection of 5234 articles, 78 of which were analyzed in more detail for the elaboration of this scoping review. This review shows that the impacts of CC on water quality are significant, but DWS employees are not enthusiastic about developing adaption measures. This review also shows that DSSs can help DWS employees facilitate the CC adaptation process for the protection of source water, improve water treatment plant operations, and enhance routine management of water quality in the distribution system. Further research is needed to identify strategies that might increase the awareness of and interest in climate change impacts, adaptation, and the use of DSSs among DWS employees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world economy has largely overcome the Malthusian challenge, but there are regions such as the Sahel where this challenge remains formidable and food insecurity is exacerbated by multiple threats of climate change, low agricultural productivity, and high population growth. While the interactions among these forces governing long-term food security are widely discussed for policy making in the Sahel, analysis of the comparative magnitude of the forces in the resulting food security outcomes is largely absent. In this paper, we identify the relative contribution of these long-term drivers of food security outcomes in rural and urban Niger into 2050. We then consider three policy scenarios to address food security issues: accelerated investments in agricultural R&D (supply side), reduction of fertility rates (demand side), and market integration. We use a historically validated partial equilibrium model tailored to Nigerien agriculture, with data inputs gleaned from various sources, including household and farm surveys and grid-cell level production data. Our study finds that among growth in population, income, and agricultural productivity and climate change impacts on yields and labor productivity, population growth in Niger will remain the single largest driver of crop output growth and undernourishment in the country. Three-fourths of the increase in undernourished population is projected to be among the urban population. Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity will have differential impacts on undernourishment prevalence among rural and urban population, pushing an additional 2 million people into undernourishment by 2050. The relative impacts of climate change are larger among the rural population offsetting revenue gains from increased crop prices. We emphasize that feasible advancements in agricultural productivity are likely to be outpaced by rapid population growth and climate change setbacks unless simultaneous actions are taken on the demand side. On the supply side, interventions are required in transforming R&D spending into higher farm productivity. Greater integration into regional markets will also aide in mitigating undernourishment prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The report by the IPPC (2007) estimated that 20% of all climate change effects will have an impact on the agricultural sector. While climate change has been identified as a key factor affecting yields and the availability and quality of agricultural products, empirical findings from the recent literature remain inconclusive as regards the effects of climatic elements—such as temperature and rainfall—on agricultural yields. This paper examines how weather affects the yields of agricultural crops while allowing for nonlinearity in the cause-effect transmission mechanism, and using an original database from different sources in Tunisia related to climate variables (temperature and rainfall) and regional crops (cereals) in 24 regions. We propose the implementation of a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) approach which allows for a possible presence of threshold effects of temperature and rainfall on crop yields. Our results suggest that the positive impact of rainfall on crop productivity is reduced when the temperature is high. However, the rising temperature has more beneficial effects on crop yields if rainfalls enter the high regime. Therefore, adaptation measures are strongly recommended to cope with climatic conditions. For instance, a public policy related to the water demand management system that promotes the efficient use of scarce water resources would be helpful for privileging and subsidizing the areas that are threatened. Moreover, policymakers should consider encouraging the development of drought-tolerant crops, especially in Southern Tunisia, where global warming has caused a severe drought. In Northern Tunisia, adaptation measures may include choosing tree species and forestry practices less vulnerable to storms and fires, especially in Jendouba, the region of Tunisia that is highly forested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic development may have distinct implications for the environment based on gender-differentiated employment in various sectors of the economy. This is the first major attempt to incorporate gender in environmental modeling using sector-wise female employment status and gender parity index. In this study, we investigate the environment-gender nexus through the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in 36 Asian countries for the period 1991–2017 by panel data estimations. We find in all estimations through panel FMOLS that (a) per capita GDP positively affects CO2 emissions and (b) per capita CO2 is affected by per capita GDP squared negatively, thus confirming EKC for panel Asian data with 971 observations. The estimations of the paper also confirm the EKC hypothesis through panel data models in which GDP and GDP squared variables. Our findings suggest male and female labor market participation impacts the environment differently, particularly in the agricultural sectors. We also find that an increased schooling ratio (gender parity index) negatively impacts environmental degradation. The findings of the present study are expected to give insights into policymakers for understanding the theoretical and statistical association between environmental quality and male/female labor force in agricultural and industrial sectors for 36 Asian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Approximately 10 years ago, convection‐permitting regional climate models (CPRCMs) emerged as a promising computationally affordable tool to produce fine resolution (1–4 km) decadal‐long climate simulations with explicitly resolved deep convection. This explicit representation is expected to reduce climate projection uncertainty related to deep convection parameterizations found in most climate models. A recent surge in CPRCM decadal simulations over larger domains, sometimes covering continents, has led to important insights into CPRCM advantages and limitations. Furthermore, new observational gridded datasets with fine spatial and temporal (~1 km; ~1 h) resolutions have leveraged additional knowledge through evaluations of the added value of CPRCMs. With an improved coordination in the frame of ongoing international initiatives, the production of ensembles of CPRCM simulations is expected to provide more robust climate projections and a better identification of their associated uncertainties. This review paper presents an overview of the methodology to produce CPRCM simulations and the latest research on the related added value in current and future climates. Impact studies that are already taking advantage of these new CPRCM simulations are highlighted. This review paper ends by proposing next steps that could be accomplished to continue exploiting the full potential of CPRCMs. This article is categorized under:Climate Models and Modeling > Earth System Models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To help with preparedness efforts of Canadian public health and safety systems for adaptation to climate change, the humidity index (humidex) and three threshold‐based humidex indices (annual number of days with humidex greater than 30, 35 and 40) were computed for a multi‐model ensemble of climate change projections, over Canada. The ensemble consists of one run from each 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models and offers historical simulations starting in 1950 and future projections out to 2100 following Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. Each ensemble member was bias‐adjusted and statistically downscaled using the Multivariate bias correction—N‐dimensional probability density function transform (MBCn) with hourly data from ERA5‐Land as the target dataset and following a method proposed by Diaconescu et al. (2023; International Journal of Climatology, 43, 837) to calculate humidex from daily climate model outputs. This paper details the steps for data production including evaluation of the target historical gridded data and selection of downscaling method and presents some of the resulting humidex projections at the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In the 21st century, climate change, which is predominantly caused by human activities, has emerged as a major global concern. This paper examines in depth the profound and multifarious effects of climate change on ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide. It further investigates the complex connections between climate change and ecosystems, focusing on terrestrial, aquatic, and marine habitats. Notably, we emphasize the unique challenges confronting ecosystems in Southeast Asia, a region of ecological significance where the ocean economy is fundamental to human livelihoods. Climate change threatens ecosystem services in numerous ways, including the provision of food and water, climate regulation, nutrient cycling, and cultural importance. We emphasize the potential transformation of ecosystems from carbon sinks to carbon sources, which has implications for climate control. Moreover, changes in disease vectors and altered landscapes raise concerns for human health and cultural traditions. We emphasize the importance of international cooperation, as exemplified by the Paris Agreement, in mitigating climate change collectively. In addition, we advocate for the inclusion of indigenous communities and traditional ecological knowledge in conservation and restoration initiatives. This paper concludes by emphasizing the profound interdependence between ecosystems and human well-being and the urgency of taking action. HIGHLIGHTS Climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, ecosystem services.; Future management.;

With the publication of a Decree that has established a List of the Italian oldgrowth forests, we have analyzed, using text mining software, the state of the art of Italian research in this field. We have analyzed 188 ISI and 72 non-indexed papers or reports. The analysis has identified 165 locations of which more than 50% are on pure beech or mixed beech and silver fir stands. The analysis was focused mainly on structural characteristics and bio-indicators. The current knowledge represents reliable support for the establishment of an Italian network of old-growth forests and this green infrastructure offers important opportunities for research and collaboration between research, natural resource management, and local, regional, and state administrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of the Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) relation is often necessary for the planning and design of various hydraulic structures and design storms. It has been an increasingly greater challenge due to climate change conditions. This paper therefore proposes an integrated extreme rainfall modeling software package (SDExtreme) for constructing the IDF relations at a local site in the context of climate change. The proposed tool is based on a temporal downscaling method to describe the relationships between daily and sub-daily extreme precipitation using the scale-invariance General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. In addition, SDExtreme provides a modified bootstrap technique to determine confidence intervals (CIs) of the estimated IDF curves for current and the future climate conditions. The feasibility and accuracy of SDExtreme were assessed using rainfall data available from the selected rain gauge stations in Quebec and Ontario provinces (Canada) and climate simulations under three different climate change scenarios provided by the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents prominent Nordic contributions to stochastic methods in hydrology and water resources during the previous 50 years. The development in methods from analysis of stationary and independent hydrological events to include non-stationarity, risk analysis, big data, operational research and climate change impacts is hereby demonstrated. The paper is divided into four main sections covering flood frequency and drought analyses, assessment of rainfall extremes, stochastic approaches to water resources management and approaches to climate change and adaptation efforts. It is intended as a review paper referring to a rich selection of internationally published papers authored by Nordic hydrologists or hydrologists from abroad working in a Nordic country or in cooperation with Nordic hydrologists. Emerging trends in needs and methodologies are highlighted in the conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic warming is occurring at a much faster rate than in other parts of the globe, with potentially devastating consequences for the diverse array of species within ecologically and biologically sensitive areas in the Arctic marine region. However, climate change research in this region is sparse compared to other biomes, hindering conservation efforts. In this article, we review and synthesize the available literature to understand the observed and potential impacts of climate change on different species and ecosystems in the Arctic marine region. We reviewed 253 articles reporting changes in species and ecosystems in the Arctic marine region in response to climate change (225 studies documenting observed impacts and 28 reporting predicted impacts). The review revealed that most research effort has been concentrated in only a subset of Arctic Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) (5/18 LMEs), with the majority of Arctic LMEs being poorly studied. The majority of the reviewed papers focused on marine mammals (19%) followed by microalgae (17%). A number of studies documented variability in planktonic communities (microalgae, macroalgae, zooplankton), resulting in alteration in ecosystem structure and function. Reproductive failure, decline in populations, and changes in diet composition, behavior, and breeding biology were reported for sea birds and mammals. Further, shifts in spatial distribution of fishes were observed by several studies. This review provides persuasive evidence that multiple climate change indices in the Arctic region are changing, with impacts on almost all components of marine biotic ecosystems (from plankton to top predators). We identify a number of gaps (such as limited inventory of biota, robustness of data supporting climate change indices on an Arctic Ocean scale, and climate suitability assessment for all species) in climate change research in Arctic marine ecosystems where future studies can help to quantify the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems and advance understanding for their adaptive management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As ongoing research efforts contribute to elucidating the consequences of climate change as well as adaptation and mitigation options, aligning the current research knowledge with stakeholder opinions and perceptions remains critical for adopting effective climate change policies. This paper utilizes an interactive survey to (1) address the aforementioned gap in studies involving three groups of stakeholders and opinion makers and (2) perform a comparative primary study of the climate change assumptions, risk perceptions, policy preferences, observations, and knowledge of Czech farmers, governmental policy-makers and researchers. This study shows that the stakeholder groups agree that the climate is clearly changing, attribute this change mostly to man-made causes and expect the negative effects to either prevail or be unevenly geographically distributed. The large majority of all three groups consider unmitigated climate change a major threat even by 2050 and agree that preparing in advance is the best sectoral strategy. Importantly, while investment in adaptation measures is considered the most efficient tool for accelerating the implementation of adaptation measures, the CAP and EU rules (as valid in 2016) are believed to hinder such measures. The results of this study have ramifications for the wider region of Central Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nomadic Mongolians move in specific areas in search of the best pastures and campsites for their herds and are highly dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods. Pastureland ecosystems are increasingly being affected by climate and other anthropogenic changes, such as socio-economic and cultural changes, challenging nomadic livelihoods in the drylands. The research presented in this paper is based on extensive semi-structured interviews with local herders, key informants, and focus group discussions in Northeast Mongolia. Nomadic herders’ perception and practices, supported by meteorological data, reveal that climate change has affected the provisioning of key ecosystem services, especially the availability of water and the quality and availability of pastureland. Many herders are now moving three times per year, not four, because of problems with water availability and increased dependence on local centres. For pastureland, changes in the absolute volume of rainfall is not the main problem. Rather, fine-grained changes in the timing of rainfall are interfering with plant growth, reducing pastureland quality. Together these are impacting livelihoods substantially. Such changes present challenges for current and future management of pastureland and adaptation to climate change at local and regional scales. Herd sizes have also increased in response to expanding market opportunities. Common property management changes are beginning to increase local herders' control over access to their neighbouring groups' traditional pasture and water. More extensive adaptation will be needed. The study suggests that valuing, maintaining, and conserving traditional ecological knowledge is essential if nomadic livelihoods are to be sustained through these changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme forest fires have historically been a significant concern in Canada, the Russian Federation, the USA, and now pose an increasing threat in boreal Europe. This paper deals with application of the wildFire cLimate impacts and Adaptation Model (FLAM) in boreal forests. FLAM operates on a daily time step and utilizes mechanistic algorithms to quantify the impact of climate, human activities, and fuel availability on wildfire probabilities, frequencies, and burned areas. In our paper, we calibrate the model using historical remote sensing data and explore future projections of burned areas under different climate change scenarios. The study consists of the following steps: (i) analysis of the historical burned areas over 2001–2020; (ii) analysis of temperature and precipitation changes in the future projections as compared to the historical period; (iii) analysis of the future burned areas projected by FLAM and driven by climate change scenarios until the year 2100; (iv) simulation of adaptation options under the worst-case scenario. The modeling results show an increase in burned areas under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Maintaining current temperatures (RCP 2.6) will still result in an increase in burned area (total and forest), but in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), projected burned forest area will more than triple by 2100. Based on FLAM calibration, we identify hotspots for wildland fires in the boreal forest and suggest adaptation options such as increasing suppression efficiency at the hotspots. We model two scenarios of improved reaction times—stopping a fire within 4 days and within 24 h—which could reduce average burned forest areas by 48.6% and 79.2%, respectively, compared to projected burned areas without adaptation from 2021–2099.

The mountain cryosphere, which includes glaciers, permafrost, and snow, is one of the Earth's systems most strongly affected by climate change. In recent decades, changes in the cryosphere have been well documented in many high-mountain regions. While there are some benefits from snow and ice loss, the negative impacts, including from glacier lake outburst floods and variations in glacier runoff, are generally considered to far outweigh the positive impacts, particularly if cultural impacts are considered. In international climate policy, there has been growing momentum to address the negative impacts of climate change, or 'Loss and Damage' (L&D) from climate change. It is not clear exactly what can and should be done to tackle L&D, but researchers and practitioners are beginning to engage with policy discussions and develop potential frameworks and supporting information. Despite the strong impact of climate change on the mountain cryosphere, there has been limited interaction between cryosphere researchers and L&D. Therefore, little work has been done to consider how L&D in the mountain cryosphere might be conceptualized, categorized, and assessed. Here, we make a first attempt to analyze L&D in the mountain cryosphere by conducting a systematic literature review to extract L&D impacts and examples from existing literature. We find that L&D is a global phenomenon in the mountain cryosphere and has been more frequently documented in the developing world, both in relation with slow and sudden onset processes. We develop a categorization of L&D, making distinctions between physical and societal impacts, primary and secondary impacts, and identifying seven types of L&D (including L&D to culture, livelihoods, revenue, natural resources, life, and security). We hope this conceptual approach will support future work to understand and address L&D in the mountain cryosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I investigate the effect of weather variations in the exporter and importer countries separately, as well as a the difference between weather variations in both countries, on bilateral trade flows. The analysis is done at the country, sectoral and product levels, worldwide, and over the 1992-2014 period. I find a negative effect of temperature variations in the exporter country and in the difference between exporter and importer countries, on bilateral trade, at the country level. At the product level, both negative and positive effects arise, but the negative effect of temperature dominates. The temperature effects are on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, especially in the textile and metals sectors. I show that possible channels are the impact of temperature on output and labour productivity. The negative impacts are larger in exporter countries that are closer to the Equator, that have lower quality of institutions, and that export to more remote countries. If countries are able to adapt to climate change, the long term effects of temperature variations should be lower than the contemporaneous effect. Nevertheless, my results on the long term effects analysis do not support this hypothesis, suggesting no or very low adaptation. Moreover, the negative effect of temperature is persistent and cumulative through several years after the temperature shock. Concerning precipitation variation effects, they are found mainly at the product level, with the positive effect dominating for the affected products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme rainfall events have posed several serious threats to many populated and urbanized areas in the world including the Indian subcontinent. Therefore, accurate predictions of their intensity and areas of influence are important for flood‐prone risk assessments. On 14 July 2016, heavy to exceptionally heavy rainfall occurred in Yamunanagar (30.16° N, 77.29° E), located in the state of Haryana in North India, which led to widespread disruption of communication, electricity, inundation of houses, and so forth. The present paper aims at examining observational, synoptic, thermo‐dynamical, and numerical features associated with this devastating rainfall episode. The analysis found that during extreme rainfall episodes, a trough in mid‐tropospheric westerlies and a strong low‐level atmospheric monsoonal flow seem to have strongly interacted with each other, creating a strong convergence zone near study areas that led to a severe rainstorm. The quasi‐stationary supercells were also noticed due to continuous moisture incursions from the Bay of Bengal and orographic uplift over the Himalayas near Yamunanagar. A deep layer of wind shear interacts dynamically with the convergence zone and leads to a potential rainstorm. Thermodynamic indices indicate high instability over the heavy rainfall area. The dynamics of this event were studied in detail by using three‐dimensional variational data assimilation within the weather research and forecasting model, configured with triple two‐way nesting domains (27, 9, and 3 km). The model results show that the weather research and forecasting model satisfactorily captures the quantitative precipitation (300 mm) in 24 h over the Yamunanagar region as compared with observation (365 mm). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade plays an important role in facilitating global food security in the face of a changing climate. In considering this issue, it is useful to distinguish between two different time scales: inter-annual and inter-decadal. Inter-annual adjustments in international trade can play an important role in shifting supplies from food surplus regions to regions facing food deficits which emerge as a consequence of extreme weather events, civil strife, and/or other disruptions The first section of the paper explores the evidence on increased inter-annual supply side volatility, as well as historical and prospective analyses of adaptation to such volatility and the role international trade can play in mitigating the adverse impacts on food security. In the long run, we expect that the fundamental patterns of comparative advantage will be altered by the changing climate as well as availability of technology and endowments (water for irrigation, labor force, capital stock). In a freely functioning global economy, long run trade patterns will respond to this evolving comparative advantage. However, historical food trade has not been free of obstacles, with both tariff and non-tariff barriers often limiting the adjustment of trade to the changing economic landscape. This section of the paper capitalizes on a newly available library of climate impact results in order to characterize the tails (both optimistic and pessimistic) of this distribution. We then explore the potential for a more freely functioning global trading system to deliver improved long run food security in 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been documented that given the same type of climate related hazard and degree of exposure, the vulnerability of a region to the hazard and its resultant damages could be very different, depending on a number of natural and socioeconomic factors. An understanding of the factors contributing to the vulnerability of a region requires a good assessment method. This paper reports the results of a vulnerability assessment to hurricane hazards for the countries in the Caribbean region. The resultant index is a weighted combination of variables. The paper demonstrates a methodology to validate the weights of the variables used to compute the index through regression analysis with the storm damage data. The refined vulnerability indices for the 25 countries studied were found to range from 0.31 to 0.77. Small island countries were generally more vulnerable than large countries, with the highest vulnerability indices (>0.6) found in The Bahamas, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Turks and Caicos Is. Although the hurricane exposure was originally considered a key variable contributing to high vulnerability, low adaptive capacity in the form of low socioeconomic status, high electricity consumption, and low infrastructure development were found to have a higher weight contributing to the overall vulnerability index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of Morocco’s rich biodiversity and pressing environmental challenges, this paper delves into the intricate dynamics of sustainable development in the country. With a focus on biodiversity conservation, water scarcity, climate change impacts, anthropogenic pressures, and energy resource management, Morocco is navigating ecosolutions and sustainable development. This research highlights the critical importance of biodiversity conservation efforts in preserving the nation’s diverse ecosystems while contributing to national development. Challenges such as forest reduction, agricultural water stress, and declining mammal diversity underscore the urgency of conservation actions. Climate change exacerbates issues in oases, impacting agricultural yields and ecosystem health. This paper also addresses the management of mineral resources and waste production, which pose significant challenges to environmental sustainability. Through strategic policies, international engagements, and capacity-building initiatives, Morocco is striving to achieve resilience and sustainability in the face of evolving global dynamics. By integrating governance, environmental diplomacy, and multilateral cooperation, Morocco is laying a robust foundation for economic growth, social progress, and environmental protection. This manuscript provides a comprehensive overview of Morocco’s environmental challenges, innovative solutions, and commitment to sustainable development in a rapidly changing world.

Migration may be increasingly used as adaptation strategy to reduce populations' exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Conversely, either through lack of information about risks at destinations or as outcome of balancing those risks, people might move to locations where they are more exposed to climatic risk than at their origin locations. Climate damages, whose quantification informs understanding of societal exposure and vulnerability, are typically computed by integrated assessment models (IAMs). Yet migration is hardly included in commonly used IAMs. In this paper, we investigate how border policy, a key influence on international migration flows, affects exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. To this aim, we include international migration and remittance dynamics explicitly in a widely used IAM employing a gravity model and compare four scenarios of border policy. We then quantify effects of border policy on population distribution, income, exposure, and vulnerability and of CO2 emissions and temperature increase for the period 2015 to 2100 along five scenarios of future development and climate change. We find that most migrants tend to move to areas where they are less exposed and vulnerable than where they came from. Our results confirm that migration and remittances can positively contribute to climate change adaptation. Crucially, our findings imply that restrictive border policy can increase exposure and vulnerability, by trapping people in areas where they are more exposed and vulnerable than where they would otherwise migrate. These results suggest that the consequences of migration policy should play a greater part in deliberations about international climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the impacts of observed (1981–2010) and projected (2011–2100) climate changes on key indicators and critical thresholds for grape growth and wine production across the three appellations of origin in Ontario (Canada). The historical analysis is based on local weather station data from Environment Canada and the projections are based on selective ensembles of seasonal global climate model projections, statistically downscaled to create local-daily climate change scenarios. Average growing season temperatures have already been warming and growing degree days are increasing, both at statistically significant rates, and are both projected to continue increasing over the course of the twenty-first century. For Niagara Peninsula and Lake Erie North Shore, these one-time cool climate wine regions have already evolved into intermediate climate wine regions and are projected to transition into warm or even hot climate regions by the 2080s. There is also evidence showing that heat stress has and will likely continue to increase, while freeze damage has and likely will continue to decrease. Pruning and shading are the key short-term adaptation strategies while varietal selection is the key long-term adaptation strategy to minimize risks and maximise opportunities in response to these observed and projected regional climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents prominent Nordic contributions to stochastic methods in hydrology and water resources during the previous 50 years. The development in methods from analysis of stationary and independent hydrological events to include non-stationarity, risk analysis, big data, operational research and climate change impacts is hereby demonstrated. The paper is divided into four main sections covering flood frequency and drought analyses, assessment of rainfall extremes, stochastic approaches to water resources management and approaches to climate change and adaptation efforts. It is intended as a review paper referring to a rich selection of internationally published papers authored by Nordic hydrologists or hydrologists from abroad working in a Nordic country or in cooperation with Nordic hydrologists. Emerging trends in needs and methodologies are highlighted in the conclusions. HIGHLIGHTS Historical development in use of stochastic methods.; From stationarity to climate change impacts.; From univariate to multivariate problems.; From local to regional problems.;

Watershed management is an ever-evolving practice involving the management of land, water, biota, and other resources in a defined area for ecological, social, and economic purposes. In this paper, we explore the following questions: How has watershed management evolved? What new tools are available and how can they be integrated into sustainable watershed management? To address these questions, we discuss the process of developing integrated watershed management strategies for sustainable management through the incorporation of adaptive management techniques and traditional ecological knowledge. We address the numerous benefits from integration across disciplines and jurisdictional boundaries, as well as the incorporation of technological advancements, such as remote sensing, GIS, big data, and multi-level social-ecological systems analysis, into watershed management strategies. We use three case studies from China, Europe, and Canada to review the success and failure of integrated watershed management in addressing different ecological, social, and economic dilemmas in geographically diverse locations. Although progress has been made in watershed management strategies, there are still numerous issues impeding successful management outcomes; many of which can be remedied through holistic management approaches, incorporation of cutting-edge science and technology, and cross-jurisdictional coordination. We conclude by highlighting that future watershed management will need to account for climate change impacts by employing technological advancements and holistic, cross-disciplinary approaches to ensure watersheds continue to serve their ecological, social, and economic functions. We present three case studies in this paper as a valuable resource for scientists, resource managers, government agencies, and other stakeholders aiming to improve integrated watershed management strategies and more efficiently and successfully achieve ecological and socio-economic management objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A paper published in Global Change Biology in 2006 revealed that phenological responses in 1971–2000 matched the warming pattern in Europe, but a lack of chilling and adaptation in farming may have reversed these findings. Therefore, for 1951–2018 in a corresponding data set, we determined changes as linear trends and analysed their variation by plant traits/groups, across season and time as well as their attribution to warming following IPCC methodology. Although spring and summer phases in wild plants advanced less (maximum advances in 1978–2007), more (~90%) and more significant (~60%) negative trends were present, being stronger in early spring, at higher elevations, but smaller for nonwoody insect‐pollinated species. These trends were strongly attributable to winter and spring warming. Findings for crop spring phases were similar, but were less pronounced. There were clearer and attributable signs for a delayed senescence in response to winter and spring warming. These changes resulted in a longer growing season, but a constant generative period in wild plants and a shortened one in agricultural crops. Phenology determined by farmers' decisions differed noticeably from the purely climatic driven phases with smaller percentages of advancing (~75%) trends, but farmers' spring activities were the only group with reinforced advancement, suggesting adaptation. Trends in farmers' spring and summer activities were very likely/likely associated with the warming pattern. In contrast, the advance in autumn farming phases was significantly associated with below average summer warming. Thus, under ongoing climate change with decreased chilling the advancing phenology in spring and summer is still attributable to warming; even the farmers' activities in these seasons mirror, to a lesser extent, the warming. Our findings point to adaptation to climate change in agriculture and reveal diverse implications for terrestrial ecosystems; the strong attribution supports the necessary mediation of warming impacts to the general public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies exploring climate change adaptation in the private sector have seldom investigated the effect of business network interactions on climate vulnerability and adaptation outcomes. This paper proposes a novel theoretical framework to explore how business–network dynamics affect risk perceptions and adaptive behaviours in business firms. The framework is empirically grounded in a comparative analysis of business–network dynamics from three agricultural value chains in Jamaica that are vulnerable to climate change impacts. The results illustrate how the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of value chain actors are influenced by business interdependencies and interfirm relationships. We find that the level of formality of business exchanges (contractual or noncontractual), the level of resource interdependency, and the ability to diversify access channels to critical resources can influence the propagation of climate‐related risks and influence actors' exposure and sensitivity to those risks. The study also offers evidence of the role played by bonding and bridging relational ties on adaptive capacity. The framework and findings provide a foundation for a new research agenda exploring a relational view of firm adaptation strategy in response to climate risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the PAVICS-Hydro platform, the result of long-term strategic considerations and compromises between functionality and ease-of-use, which is developed to provide users with direct access to a comprehensive hydroclimatic modeling and analysis framework over North America. This includes a Python hydrological modelling package, efficient access to meteorological data, a large array of post-processed hydroclimatic data, numerical weather forecasts and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections at the scale of 5797 catchments, thus providing the basic components necessary for hydrological modeling and forecasting, as well as climate change impact studies. This paper presents the principles on which the PAVICS-Hydro platform was developed while explaining the choices behind its key features, with a specific focus on lessons learned for creators of the next generations' scientific research platforms. A case study using PAVICS-Hydro is given to illustrate how this platform can be used to support different needs in the field of water resources. • We present the PAVICS-Hydro platform for hydrological modelling and research. • The platform can be used for simulation, forecasting and climate change studies. • It helps automate repetitive tasks such as model building and data processing. • Access to multiple large-scale hydrometeorological and climate datasets is provided. • The platform is built on open-source software and free to use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]