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The pulp and paper industry (PPI) has several opportunities to contribute to meeting prevailing climate targets. It can cut its own CO2 emissions, which currently account for 2% of global industrial fossil CO2 emissions, and it has an opportunity to produce renewable energy, fuels, and materials for other sectors. The purpose of this study is to improve understanding of the decarbonization prospects of the PPI. The study provides insights on the magnitude of needed annual renewal rates for several possible net-zero target years of industrial fossil CO2 emissions in the PPI and discusses decarbonization opportunities, namely, energy and material efficiency improvement, fuel switching, electrification, renewable energy production, carbon capture, and new products. The effects of climate policies on the decarbonization opportunities are critically evaluated to provide an overview of the current and future business environment of the European PPI. The focus is on Europe, but other regions are analyzed briefly to widen the view. The analysis shows that there are no major technical barriers to the fossil-free operation of the PPI, but the sector renovates slowly, and many new opportunities are not implemented on a large scale due to immature technology, poor economic feasibility, or unclear political environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global energy crisis, which began in 2021 due to the extraordinary economic recovery after the pandemic and intensified after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, has changed the conditions of energy management, paying more attention to energy efficiency. Natural gas prices have reached record levels and, consequently, so have electricity prices in some markets. Oil prices have reached their highest level since 2008. Higher energy prices have contributed to sharply increased inflation. Households are again becoming interested in buying coal as a source of heat. High energy and gas prices have pushed many families into poverty and forced some factories to cut production or even close. They have also slowed economic growth to the point where some countries are heading for a serious recession. Paradoxically, the negative effects of the energy crisis may accelerate the introduction of cleaner, sustainable, renewable energy such as wind and solar energy. The energy crisis is comparable to the oil crisis of the 1970s, when it contributed to significant advances in energy efficiency. The current crisis has highlighted the importance of investments in renewable energy resources and initiated the process of integrating regional markets, developing energy efficiency and promoting renewable energies. The aim of this article is to comprehensively explore the complex relationship between energy awareness, consumption patterns, and energy efficiency, with a focus on both individual consumers and industries, during the global energy crisis. This paper is based on a literature review, overarching policy documents, energy reports, and other secondary documents. The primary research method was the systematic literature review method, based on which the impact of the global energy crisis on energy efficiency was evaluated. This study emphasizes the diverse influences on energy awareness, ranging from economic factors to consumer preferences and environmental consciousness. The findings of the paper underscore the significant responsibility of industries in contributing to energy-saving efforts and the active role of consumers in the energy market. The responsibility of industries in contributing to energy efficiency is highlighted, with a call for a comprehensive approach that integrates energy-saving criteria into product development and corporate social responsibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several northern European countries have announced ambitious plans to become carbon neutral already before the year 2050. Recent research has, however, highlighted how potential bottlenecks in raw material and resource availability could significantly delay or hinder wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) expansion and continued biomass usage in parts of Europe. To address this issue, this paper assesses how exposed the national energy and climate plans (NECPs) of Finland, Estonia, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark are to resource limitations and techno-economic risks by reviewing and analysing 2030 NECP targets compared to statistical energy use data in these countries. The results indicate that the NECPs of Denmark and Germany are particularly exposed to risks related to global raw material availability, as Denmark plans to rapidly grow the share of wind and solar PV in electricity generation to 81% and 13% by 2030, respectively, followed by Germany, which outlines a 39% and 16% share of wind and solar PV in its national climate strategy. The NECPs of Finland and Germany are also shown to be vulnerable to limitations in biomass availability, as there is a significant disparity between the projected biomass usage and legally binding European Union (EU) targets for land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector emissions in 2030 in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to analyse role of forest industry in meeting energy and climate targets that aim to mitigating global change. Finland as an important forest industry country with the ambitious target of becoming carbon neutral by 2035 is selected to a target county. This study aims to present a plausible assessment of the future of the Finnish forest industry until 2035 based on literature and a scenario building approach. The focus is on energy use and fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The results suggest that electricity consumption will decrease, whereas electricity production will increase, which indicates that forest industry can provide more renewable electricity to the grid. Heat consumption may even increase as a result from building new biorefineries, but those mills can most probably meet their heat demand by combusting biofuels. Changes in forest industry's direct fossil CO2 emissions can reduce Finnish fossil CO2 emissions 2─4% in comparison to 2018. Biofuels production is likely to rise, but the extent remains to be seen. It is concluded that the Finnish forest industry can contribute significantly to meeting national climate policy targets, and forest industry in general can play a role in mitigating global change. Additionally, it was found that development of the Finnish forest industry will probably be limited by the requirement for sustainable wood harvesting, which may also be a problem for other forest industry countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study how the implementation of emissions trading systems (ETSs) impacts emissions reductions and the usage of renewable energy using a panel sample of the largest 100 countries worldwide. Exploiting cross-country variations in ETS implementations, we show that ETS adoption materially reduced greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide) emissions by 12.1% (18.1%). Moreover, ETSs reduced overall emissions by cutting the usage of fossil fuels such as coal by 23.70% while boosting the usage of renewable energy by 61.59%, on average. In contrast, introducing carbon taxes has a less effective impact on emissions reduction. It fails to boost the usage of renewable energy, though elevating tax rates and expanding tax coverage may help enhance the efficacy of carbon taxes. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Funding: H. Ru thanks the financial support from the Nanyang Technological University, and Ministry of Education, Singapore, under its Tier 1 RG134/20. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.03143. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, hydrogen and electric drives used in various means of transport is a leading topic in many respects. This article discusses the most important aspects of the operation of vehicles with electric drives (passenger cars) and hydrogen drives. In both cases, the official reason for using both drives is the possibility of independence from fossil fuel supplies, especially oil. The desire for independence is mainly dictated by political considerations. This article discusses the acquisition of basic raw materials for the construction of lithium-ion batteries in electric cars, as well as methods for obtaining hydrogen as a fuel. The widespread use of electric passenger cars requires the construction of a network of charging stations. This article shows that, taking into account the entire production process of electric cars, including lithium-ion batteries, the argument that they are ecological cannot be used. Additionally, it was indicated that there is no concept for the use of used accumulator batteries. If hydrogen drives are used in trains, there is no need to build the traction network infrastructure and then continuously monitor its technical condition and perform the necessary repairs. Of course, the necessary hydrogen tanks must be built, but there must be similar tanks to store oil for diesel locomotives. This paper also deals with other possibilities of hydrogen application for transformational usage, e.g., the use of combustion engines driven with liquid hydrogen. Unfortunately, an optimistic approach to this issue does not allow for a critical view of the whole matter. In public discussion, there is no room for scientific arguments and emotions to dominate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Brundtland Commission report 'Our Common Future' highlighted that residents in high-income countries lead lifestyles incompatible with planetary boundaries. Three decades later, consumption-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to increase. To achieve 'well below 2°C' and 1.5 °C goals, consumption-related emissions must be substantially reduced in the coming decades. This paper provides insights on how to pursue 1.5 °C pathways through changes in household consumption. It draws on original data gathered in the project 'HOusehold Preferences for reducing greenhouse gas Emissions in four European High Income Countries' (HOPE) to analyse policies targeting and affecting direct and indirect GHG emissions in three household consumption categories (mobility, housing and food) in four countries (France, Germany, Norway and Sweden) and four medium-sized cities. This paper demonstrates discrepancies and similarities between current governmental policy approaches in the four countries and household perceptions of consumption changes with respect to policy mechanisms, responsibilities and space for acting on mitigation. Current demand-side policy strategies rely heavily on instruments of self-governance and nudging behaviour. Whilst some of our data suggests that households broadly accept this, it also suggests that governments could more actively lead and steer demand-side mitigation via adjusting and supplementing a comprehensive list of 20 climate policy measures currently in place in one or more of the case countries. The paper concludes by suggesting areas for more effective policy change and household-level climate change mitigation to feed the next update of climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2018, an agreement between the key EU institutions--the Commission, the European Parliament, and the European Council--was reached after a long-lasting discourse over the 2030 EU climate and energy policy package. This paper offers a comprehensive assessment of the EU package, with its three main targets: lower greenhouse gas emissions, higher renewable share in final energy consumption, and improved energy efficiency. We find that the renewable and energy efficiency targets have been set so high that the derived emissions reduction (50 percent) exceeds the EU climate target (40 percent). Hence, there is no need for an EU climate policy, for example, to use carbon prices to reach the EU climate goals. It is, however, not cost-efficient to achieve the climate target by imposing the three EU targets. We demonstrate that a cost-efficient policy that obtains a 50 percent GHG emissions reduction would increase annual welfare (relative to the Reference scenario) by an amount corresponding to 0.6 percent of GDP in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the 2030 energy and climate objectives of the European Union, there is a need to evaluate the different options to shape the future framework for renewable energy sources (RES) policies and targets. The Special Issue focuses in seven papers on the following dimension of this future framework: (i) interactions between support for RES in the electricity sector and other climate and energy instruments in the European Union, (ii) challenges related to renewable energy technologies that have achieved a certain level of maturity, (iii) assessment of renewable and energy efficiency policies on natural gas markets and supply security, (iv) contribution of increasing district heating based on renewables to the renewable target achievements of Central and Eastern European, (v) how to support the successful achievement of renewable energy targets in the short and medium term and in a time horizon up to 2030, and how to share the efforts required among individual countries or groups of European Member States, (vi) influence of the rapidly increasing shares of variable renewable on the price on electricity markets as well as flexibility requirements in the electricity system, (vii) principal design features and context factors which increase or reduce the effectiveness and efficiency of RES-E auctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All countries, including developing ones, have set climate change and energy security as clear target goals. They have developed programs and policies to reach their energy security, emission reduction, and environmental mitigation goals. Colombia has notably developed programs to promote renewable energies and efficiency. However, there is still a need to quantify the impact that these policies could have in the future. The aim of this paper is to quantify the emissions prevented by the implementation of two proposed Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), for which we built Colombia's energy system model in order to understand its effects on GHG emissions. The first NAMA replaces old refrigerators that continue using CFC compounds with efficient refrigerators that use HCFC compounds. The second NAMA seeks to secure new energy supplies through renewable sources for areas not connected to the grid. We also created a scenario that integrates both NAMAs to understand their combined effects on GHG emissions. The simulation shows that both NAMAs will allow to prevent the emission of 4.71 million tons of CO2 equivalent by 2040, and that the faster they are implemented, the more GHG emissions will be avoided. The model is a framework available for further research in climate change mitigation and energy efficiency policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the potential of fuel tax reforms to curb harmful air pollutants and carbon emissions from road transport in Europe. We provide robust estimates for the responsiveness of fuel consumption to changes in prices, which constitute a key determinant for emissions pathways in response to policy interventions. We show that accounting for the manifest shift to diesel in the European vehicle fleet, as well as slow consumption adjustments over time yield strong evidence that petrol and diesel demand are more price elastic already in the short run than previous studies suggest. In particular, we present evidence that diesel demand in Europe tends to be more price elastic than petrol demand, when instrumenting prices with excise taxes to account for endogeneity. Inspired by recent fuel tax reform proposals, we then show that both (i) a repeal of the preferential tax treatment for diesel and (ii) an introduction of a carbon content-based tax, could avoid considerable amounts of health damaging air pollutant exhaust while at the same time contributing substantially to achieving the EU climate policy goals for 2020. In many countries, abandoning the diesel tax advantage has nearly as strong an effect as a 50€/tCO 2 tax on fuel. Both reforms have significant revenue potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU climate and energy policy landscape is characterized by a combination of instruments to achieve the EU 2020 and 2030 targets. In this paper, some of the most relevant interactions between RES-E support and a wide array of other climate and energy policies including the EU ETS, the Energy Taxation Directive and the Effort Sharing Directive in the European Union are assessed. A qualitative methodology is applied considering different assessment criteria such as effectiveness and efficiency of RES-E support and support costs but also distribution of costs between different stakeholder groups. Our analysis shows that, despite a common perception that interactions lead to conflicts, this is not really the case when the discussion is broadened and considers different assessment criteria. While adding one instrument or policy to another worsens one criterion, it usually improves another. Furthermore, the results of the interactions are not only specific to the policy, but also depend on the choice of instruments and design elements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency standards for household appliances have been adopted in many countries to mitigate negative externalities, reduce emissions, and save energy. Using Chinese provincial-level panel data from 2008 to 2018, this paper builds a difference-in-difference model to examine the mechanism by which energy-efficiency upgrades in China's air conditioners affect urban household electricity usage. The results show that the upgrades have brought about an obvious reverse effect, with urban household electricity usage increasing rather than decreasing. Reducing the unit costs of energy service has enhanced residents' sensitivity to cooling demand. Driven by the substitution and income effects, urban residents may increase the intensity and frequency of their AC use. Additionally, this reverse effect is heterogeneously dependent on the family size and urban residents' age structure rather than their educational level. When families are larger and have more children, the reverse effect is more pronounced. This paper's findings provide useful recommendations for policy-makers to formulate policies that are synergistic with energy efficiency standards for household appliances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve European Union (EU) greenhouse gas emissions of 80–95% below 1990 levels by 2050, CO2emissions from residential energy consumption must be substantially reduced. Recognition of this has led to the introduction of a range of policy instruments at both EU and member state level. These policies are examined for the EU and the UK, first by grouping them into three ‘pillars of policy’ – standards and engagement, markets and pricing, and strategic investment (each of which focus on different ‘domains of change’ embodying different economic processes) – and then by assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each pillar in terms of instrument coverage and effectiveness. Strengths and weaknesses common to both UK and EU policy landscapes are found, including a comprehensive but broadly ineffective standards and engagement pillar of policy, and an ineffective markets and pricing landscape (including effective subsidization of energy consumption in the UK, permitted by the EU), with poor coverage. The strategic investment landscape is found (until recently) to be substantially stronger in the UK compared with EU instruments and requirements. Priority reform actions are also proposed to address the weaknesses identified. The paper also offers discussion of recent policy developments in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Emissions from aviation will continue to increase in the future, in contradiction of global climate policy objectives. Yet, airlines and airline organisations suggest that aviation will become climatically sustainable. This paper investigates this paradox by reviewing fuel-efficiency gains since the 1960s in comparison to aviation growth, and by linking these results to technology discourses, based on a two-tiered approach tracing technology-focused discourses over 20 years (1994–2013). Findings indicate that a wide range of solutions to growing emissions from aviation have been presented by industry, hyped in global media, and subsequently vanished to be replaced by new technology discourses. Redundant discourses often linger in the public domain, where they continue to be associated with industry aspirations of ‘sustainable aviation’ and ‘zero-emission flight’. The paper highlights and discusses a number of technology discourses that constitute ‘technology myths’, and the role these ‘myths’ may be playing in the enduring but flawed promise of sustainable aviation. We conclude that technology myths require policy-makers to interpret and take into account technical uncertainty, which may result in inaction that continues to delay much needed progress in climate policy for aviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The integration of climate policy concerns in other policy areas where decisions are taken that determine greenhouse gas emissions is a prerequisite for effectively mitigating climate change. There are particularly strong interlinkages between energy and climate policy as the major part of greenhouse gas emissions is related to energy supply and use. We compile a set of five output‐focused indicators for assessing climate policy integration (political commitment, functional overlap, policy instruments, weighting, and time perspective). We then apply the criteria for an appraisal of climate policy integration in European Union (EU) energy policy during the last decade; that is, we focus on climate policy integration from a horizontal perspective. The focus of our research lies on the comparison of the Renewable Energy and the Energy Efficiency Directives of the Energy Union Package with their predecessors. Our results show that climate change mitigation is a key objective in these documents. The energy policy objectives are generally synergetic with climate policy. The Energy Union Package makes progress in some areas like the more stringent EU targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency or the more stringent sustainability criteria for biofuels. However, some conflicting issues arise. The shift from national to an overall EU renewables target and the change towards more market‐oriented support schemes might together with the elimination of preferential grid access for renewable electricity entail negative impacts on renewable investment and on achieving emission reductions. It remains to be seen whether the adaptations in EU energy policy will lead to the required acceleration of the energy transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the trend and the influencing factors of greenhouse gas (carbon) emissions in Hungary with a special focus on the sectors under the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The authors find that changes in carbon intensity of primary energy use and efficiency of primary energy transformation have not been deep enough to ensure a substantial and lasting decoupling of carbon emissions from economic growth in Hungary. The only component they prove to have decreased the carbon emissions is the structural changes of the economy. The factor of structural changes has been reducing Hungarian emissions in the 90's but it has failed to offset the effects of the recent economic growth, which triggers net emissions to increase both in the ETS sectors and the rest of the economy. They find no evidence for emigration of regulated industries under ETS so far. Structural changes observed in the national economy seem to be independent of ETS, as economic activity has been growing in less carbon intensive sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the intertemporal substitution effect, the high inflation expectations can stimulate agents to consume now rather than in the future. However, under the background of global climate policy changes, how inflation expectations affect energy consumption? Using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling window tests, this study examines the intertemporal substitution effect of energy consumption in the U.S. The results based on the full-sample data indicate no causality between inflation expectations and energy consumption, which suggests that the intertemporal substitution effect of energy consumption does not exist. Nevertheless, the rolling window method which estimates a time-varying causality identifies a short-lived positive effects of inflation expectations on energy consumption in a distinct sub-period before the global Paris agreement, but disappears since then. Therefore, the intertemporal substitution effect regarding energy consumption does not exist under the background of pressing carbon targets. The effects of energy consumption on inflation expectations can be positive or negative, which tells a cautionary tale about climate policies aiming at engineering lower carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The application of big data to energy economy modelling is a critical research gap. • Big data has the potential to reduce multiple blind spots in energy economy models. • Bottom-up hybrid models are a logical starting point for big data integration. • Moving from data scarcity to data abundance could completely transform the field. • We explore the research possibilities for revolutionising the state-of-the-art. Abstract Energy economy models are central to decision making on energy and climate issues in the 21st century, such as informing the design of deep decarbonisation strategies under the Paris Agreement. Designing policies that are aimed at achieving such radical transitions in the energy system will require ever more in-depth modelling of end-use demand, efficiency and fuel switching, as well as an increasing need for regional, sectoral, and agent disaggregation to capture technological, jurisdictional and policy detail. Building and using these models entails complex trade-offs between the level of detail, the size of the system boundary, and the available computing resources. The availability of data to characterise key energy system sectors and interactions is also a key driver of model structure and parameterisation, and there are many blind spots and design compromises that are caused by data scarcity. We may soon, however, live in a world of data abundance , potentially enabling previously impossible levels of resolution and coverage in energy economy models. But while big data concepts and platforms have already begun to be used in a number of selected energy research applications, their potential to improve or even completely revolutionise energy economy modelling has been almost completely overlooked in the existing literature. In this paper, we explore the challenges and possibilities of this emerging frontier. We identify critical gaps and opportunities for the field, as well as developing foundational concepts for guiding the future application of big data to energy economy modelling, with reference to the existing literature on decision making under uncertainty, scenario analysis and the philosophy of science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable energy statistics serve as the foundation and starting point for understanding the climate policies of any country. As the most comprehensive sources of energy data for China, China Energy Statistics Yearbooks (ESY), published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), underwent three major revisions since 2005. This paper analyzes how these three major revisions correspond to data on China's energy use from 1996 to 2012, and theirs impacts on CO 2 emissions, emission intensity and the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption, which are key indicators of China's climate policies. Some notable changes include CO 2 emissions for 2012, which increased by 594 Million tons – a figure equivalent to South Korea's annual emissions, which implies that China's emissions at peak level will be higher than previous estimation. Meanwhile, revised emission intensity data show a higher amount and lower decreasing rate, which means that China's achievements in decreasing emission intensity during 2005–2012 have been overestimated, while future difficulties for achieving the goal of 40–45% reduction will be greater. On the share of non-fossil fuel energy in China's total energy mix, the adjustments increased the indicator by 1.26%, reflecting the fact that China's effort in developing non-fossil energy had been underestimated. Discrepancies in reported scattered coal in different statistics versions are the main contributors to these changes. To further enhance the reliability of its energy statistics, and thereby its climate policies, China should remove incentives for misreporting through legal means, and make the technical system for data collection more comprehensive and accurate, with particular emphasis on scattered coal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Although governments have launched energy performance certification (EPC) programs to increase residential energy efficiency, residents’ perception and acceptance of these programs have been little studied. This study contextualizes residents’ intentions to participate in EPC programs in terms of their attributions to and attitudes toward climate change to find mediating factors and effects to help trigger collective action to reduce residential sector energy demand. Methods: This study employed a partial least squares structural equation modeling approach to empirically analyze a survey conducted on 400 residents of Edmonton, Canada, who participated in the Canadian energy efficiency rating and labeling program, EnerGuide. Results and Discussion: Using EnerGuide, a Canadian energy efficiency rating and labeling program, as an example, this study establishes a framework to explain that local residents’ internal and external attributions to climate change elicit positive attitudes (need to take action), increasing their recognition of energy efficiency program benefits, which further promotes their EnerGuide program acceptance and participation intentions. This study also reveals the mediating effects between variables. Residents’ attitudes toward climate change mediate the relationship between internal/external attributions and EnerGuide program acceptance, and they indirectly impact residents’ program acceptance and participation intentions, with this effect moderated by energy efficiency program benefits. Residents’ program acceptance also mediates the relationship between climate change attitudes/energy efficiency program benefits and the intention outcome. Implication: The study provides an example of the use of climate change discourse to motivate residents’ energy efficiency program participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Notwithstanding the clear contribution of fossil fuel production and consumption to global greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuels have remained largely outside the focus of the international regime established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The 2021 Glasgow Climate Change Conference (COP26) marked an important change, however, with fossil fuels featuring prominently in the intergovernmental negotiations as well as on the side‐lines of the conference. Here we discuss these developments as a site for contestations around "anti‐fossil fuel norms." We argue that anti‐fossil fuel norms are increasingly being adopted and institutionalized. However, ongoing contestation among proponents and opponents of measures to tackle fossil fuels raises important questions over the specific content of emerging norms, the role of the fossil fuel industry in climate governance, the extent to which these norms "fit" with their broader normative context, and the conditions of North–South cooperation in which such norms are to be implemented. This article is categorized under:Policy and Governance > International Policy FrameworkPolicy and Governance > Private Governance of Climate Change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper identifies and characterizes the technical measures and policy instruments that can be used to promote energy efficiency and the use of renewable sources for domestic hot water (DHW). DHW presents a considerable potential for abatement of greenhouse gas emissions around the world. Measures were characterized in terms of level of transformation, impact and scope, among others. Policy instruments were characterized in terms of target groups, competences required for implementation, major challenges and nature of the instruments. A matrix showing the applicability of policy instruments per technical measure was derived, enabling policy makersto better choose articulated measures and policy instruments for their policy packs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As modern societies are moving to the bio-economy era the energy solutions of enterprises are becoming increasingly important. In this paper we study the energy futures of farms up to 2030. A two-rounded mixed Delphi study combining qualitative and quantitative data was carried out to gather the views of experts within agriculture, as well as climate and energy issues. In the first round the experts answered a questionnaire and were interviewed and on the second round a feed-back report from the first round and an online questionnaire was used. The experts were asked to estimate probable and evaluate preferred futures of eleven energy sources in farm-level energy usage. Images of the future were constructed by performing a cluster analysis of the quantitative data. The quantitative clusters were complemented with qualitative material providing, arguments, meanings and rationale of and paths to the images of the future. Six scenarios were formed this way: 1) Boiler and Pump, 2) Incremental Change, 3) Energy Boost Plus, 4) Energy Boost Minus, 5) Renewable Prosperity and 6) Energy Save. The six scenarios differ in how much they envision traditional energy forms (bulk electricity, oil, natural gas) will be used and what is the emphasis of combustion of biofuels (wood, liquid biofuels, biogas, other biomass) and the use of other renewables (wind, solar energy, heat pumps and hydropower). All scenarios need consistent policies in order to become realised in the future – it is time to decide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increases in energy efficiency are reduced by the rebound effect. Efficiency gains on the micro level do not lead to proportionate reductions of energy consumption on the macro level. The German energy-economy model PANTA RHEI is applied to better understand the rebound effect. To get more robust estimates micro data from a cost structure survey of the German manufacturing sector was used to derive price elasticities of energy demand. The mesoeconomic rebound effect of an autonomous increase in energy efficiency at the industry level in manufacturing is between 7% in 2021 and 12% in 2030. The macroeconomic rebound effect lies between 12% in 2021 and 18% in 2030. Inclusion of necessary investment and assumptions of higher elasticities of substitution increase the effects. Rebound effects limit the scope of technology-driven efficiency improvements and must be considered in the design of ambitious energy efficiency programs and climate policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present four model-based scenarios exploring the potential for resource efficiency for energy, land and phosphorus use, and implications for resource depletion, climate change and biodiversity. The scenarios explored include technological improvements as well as structural changes in production systems and lifestyle changes. Many of such changes have long lead times, requiring up front and timely investments in infrastructure, innovative incentive structures and education. For simulating the scenarios we applied the IMAGE modelling framework, with a time horizon until 2050. Our findings confirm a large potential for more efficient resource use: our (no new policies) baseline scenario shows a global increase, between 2010 and 2050, by 80% of primary energy use, 4% of arable land and 40% of phosphorus fertilisers. These numbers are reduced to +25% (primary energy), −9% (arable land) and +9% (phosphorus) in the global resource efficiency scenario. Baseline developments and resource efficiency opportunities vary strikingly among regions, resources and sectors. Phosphorus use, for example, is expected to increase most on croplands in developing countries, whereas the largest potential for phosphorus use efficiency lies in the livestock sector and urban sewage treatment in industrialised countries. Consequently, while resource efficiency resonates well as a general notion in policy thinking, concrete policies need to be region-specific, resource-specific and sector-specific. Efficiency efforts on one resource tend to contribute to efficient use of other resources and to benefit the environment. There are also trade-offs, however, and the synergies analysed do not make problem-specific policies redundant: in 2050, the global resource efficiency scenario presents higher phosphorus use and higher use of fossil fuels than in 2010; greenhouse gas emission targets are met by half; and biodiversity loss slows down but is not halted. Moreover, part of the efficiency gains in land and phosphorus use is sacrificed when this scenario is combined with ambitious climate policy, due to the substantial resource requirements for the deployment of bio-energy—albeit much less than in a scenario without more efficient resource use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines the results of various scenarios for optimizing Poland's future energy system up to 2050. The objective of the study was to demonstrate through the use of models how the level of binding targets for the share of renewable energy (RES) in final energy consumption would impact the evolution of the Polish energy sector. The differences in the compared scenarios consist of the level of RES (renewable energy sources) targets while assuming the same ETS (emissions trading system) CO 2 reduction pathways. These scenarios of differing RES targets are compared with other ones where the level of RES obligatory for 2020 has not been increased in the 2020–2050 period. The lack of increasing RES targets applies no preference for any particular technology, and the resulting energy mix is cost-optimal. Potential variations in the energy mix are shown, addressing the fuel and technological structure of electricity production. The analysis presents the costs of electricity generation in the examined scenarios and the level of capital expenditures for the development of new capacities. It examines how RES technologies may develop in Poland with and without the national RES targets after 2020, and the consequences for coal as well as the development of clean coal technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns about local air pollution and climate change have prompted all levels of government to consider a variety of policies to reduce vehicle dependence and fuel consumption, as the transportation sector is one of the largest sources of local and global emissions. Because many of the policy options under consideration are market-based (e.g., gasoline tax, carbon tax), it is important to consider how the impacts would vary across space and affect different subpopulations. Evaluating incidence is relevant for both the expected costs and benefits of a particular policy, however detailed data on vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) and fuel consumption allowing for the distributions of these variables to be estimated at a fine geographic scale is rarely available. This paper uses a unique dataset with more than 20 million vehicles in California to derive estimates of VMT and fuel consumption in order to examine the spatial distribution of impacts for an increase in the price of gasoline as well as the consequences of using different statistics for policy evaluation. Results show that VMT and fuel consumption distributions are not symmetrically distributed and vary significantly within transportation planning regions. To understand the potential implications of this asymmetry, we do a back of the envelope comparison using the mean and mode of the VMT or fuel consumption distribution for policy analysis. We find that assuming a symmetric distribution can lead to a divergence of 20–40% from the estimates based on the empirical distribution. Our results, therefore, introduce caution in interpreting the incidence of policies targeting the transportation sector based on averages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, hydrogen and electric drives used in various means of transport is a leading topic in many respects. This article discusses the most important aspects of the operation of vehicles with electric drives (passenger cars) and hydrogen drives. In both cases, the official reason for using both drives is the possibility of independence from fossil fuel supplies, especially oil. The desire for independence is mainly dictated by political considerations. This article discusses the acquisition of basic raw materials for the construction of lithium-ion batteries in electric cars, as well as methods for obtaining hydrogen as a fuel. The widespread use of electric passenger cars requires the construction of a network of charging stations. This article shows that, taking into account the entire production process of electric cars, including lithium-ion batteries, the argument that they are ecological cannot be used. Additionally, it was indicated that there is no concept for the use of used accumulator batteries. If hydrogen drives are used in trains, there is no need to build the traction network infrastructure and then continuously monitor its technical condition and perform the necessary repairs. Of course, the necessary hydrogen tanks must be built, but there must be similar tanks to store oil for diesel locomotives. This paper also deals with other possibilities of hydrogen application for transformational usage, e.g., the use of combustion engines driven with liquid hydrogen. Unfortunately, an optimistic approach to this issue does not allow for a critical view of the whole matter. In public discussion, there is no room for scientific arguments and emotions to dominate.

Background: As electric kick scooters, three-wheelers, and passenger cars enter the streets, efficiency trade-offs across vehicle types gain practical relevance for consumers and policy makers. Here, we compile a comprehensive dataset of 428 electric vehicles, including seven vehicle types and information on certified and real-world energy consumption. Regression analysis is applied to quantify trade-offs between energy consumption and other vehicle attributes. Results: Certified and real-world energy consumption of electric vehicles increase by 60% and 40%, respectively, with each doubling of vehicle mass, but only by 5% with each doubling of rated motor power. These findings hold roughly also for passenger cars whose energy consumption tends to increase 0.6 ± 0.1 kWh/100 km with each 100 kg of vehicle mass. Battery capacity and vehicle mass are closely related. A 10 kWh increase in battery capacity increases the mass of electric cars by 15 kg, their drive range by 40–50 km, and their energy consumption by 0.7–1.0 kWh/100 km. Mass-produced state-of-the-art electric passenger cars are 2.1 ± 0.8 kWh/100 km more efficient than first-generation vehicles, produced at small scale. Conclusion: Efficiency trade-offs in electric vehicles differ from those in conventional cars—the latter showing a strong dependency of fuel consumption on rated engine power. Mass-related efficiency trade-offs in electric vehicles are large and could be tapped by stimulating mode shift from passenger cars to light electric road vehicles. Electric passenger cars still offer potentials for further efficiency improvements. These could be exploited through a dedicated energy label with battery capacity as utility parameter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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There is a large literature suggesting that improvements in energy efficiency support efforts at climate mitigation. Addressing a conceptual gap in that literature, however, we evaluate whether there are any conditions under which policies to promote improvements in energy efficiency could be counterproductive to efforts to limit climate change to 1.5 °C global warming from pre-industrial times. We identify three conditions under which this could be the case. The first condition is if policies for energy efficiency have a political opportunity cost, in terms of crowding out or delaying policies aimed at decarbonizing energy supply. There is an extensive literature in the fields of political science and policy studies to suggest that this is possible, but there have been no studies examining whether it has actually happened or is likely to happen in the future. The second condition is if investments in energy efficiency improvements come at a higher cost, per unit of fossil energy avoided, than do investments in new renewable energy supply. Current cost estimates suggest that there are some energy efficiency investments for which this is the case, but it is difficult to predict whether this will remain the case in the future. The third condition is if policies for energy efficiency, or specific investments in energy efficiency, were to delay the complete decarbonization of energy supply by more than some critical value. We show that critical delay is quite short—measured in weeks to months—in the case of a 1.5 °C temperature target, assuming constrained availability of negative emission technologies. It is impossible to say whether any of these conditions is likely, but in theory, each of them would appear to be possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India’s growth of energy demand in the building stock, and efforts to curb it, are placed into an international context by adapting the reporting criteria developed for the Global Alliance on Building & Construction's (GABC) Global Status Report (2017) on buildings and construction. A survey of state and non-state actor climate commitments submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC) Non State Actors Zone for Climate Action (NAZCA) database and recent research on the status of building energy codes and standards globally are also presented. To contribute to a 2°C pathway, India must achieve a 50% reduction in building energy demand and related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. India is taking steps toward this goal through initiatives such as recent upgrades to the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC), encouraging green building rating and energy certification, and stimulating markets for low-carbon/high-efficiency technologies. However, despite improvements in building energy intensity, neither the global or the Indian building sectors are currently decarbonizing. The adoption of consistent national energy and GHG emission reduction goals could further align national, subnational and private-sector climate action commitments to facilitate a transition to a low-carbon emissions pathway and contribute to limiting global warming to well below 2°C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid urbanisation of the twentieth century, along with the spread of high-consumption urban lifestyles, has led to cities becoming the dominant drivers of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing these impacts is crucial, but production-based frameworks of carbon measurement and mitigation-which encompass only a limited part of cities' carbon footprints-are much more developed and widely applied than consumption-based approaches that consider the embedded carbon effectively imported into a city. Frequently, therefore, cities are left blind to the importance of their wider consumption-related climate impacts, while at the same time left lacking effective tools to reduce them. To explore the relevance of these issues, we implement methodologies for assessing production- and consumption-based emissions at the city-level and estimate the associated emissions trajectories for Bristol, a major UK city, from 2000 to 2035. We develop mitigation scenarios targeted at reducing the former, considering potential energy, carbon and financial savings in each case. We then compare these mitigation potentials with local government ambitions and Bristol's consumption-based emissions trajectory. Our results suggest that the city's consumption-based emissions are three times the production-based emissions, largely due to the impacts of imported food and drink. We find that low-carbon investments of circa £3 billion could reduce production-based emissions by 25% in 2035. However, we also find that this represents <10% of Bristol's forecast consumption-based emissions for 2035 and is approximately equal to the mitigation achievable by eliminating the city's current levels of food waste. Such observations suggest that incorporating consumption-based emission statistics into cities' accounting and decision-making processes could uncover largely unrecognised opportunities for mitigation that are likely to be essential for achieving deep decarbonisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While in 2007 the European Commission suggested a national binding target of 20 per cent for the renewable energy share of European Union (EU) energy consumption by 2020, its proposal of January 2014 for the follow-up period until 2030 is less ambitious: first, the suggested 27 per cent share of renewables is only slightly above the expected level of 24.4 per cent which would be achieved by the implementation of current policies; and second, the target is not legally obligatory for the member states. This article argues that the less-ambitious target is explained by changed context conditions for the EU's climate and renewable energy policy, whereas the abandonment of the legally binding force of the target for the member states is the result of the bargaining strategy employed by the energy commissioner. This illustration of a commissioner's individual influence has so far been neglected by the literature on the European Commission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing climate changes necessitate an effective climate policy. The energy transition is now an important topic and problem, especially in Poland. (1) The undertaken analysis of the problem of energy transition is important for political, social and technological reasons. Political, because it shows the weakness of the implementation of Polish energy policy in regards to climate change. Social, because energy transition will bring about significant social changes in the largest industrial region of Poland. Technological, as the departure from fossil fuels requires the introduction of other sources of energy on a massive scale, for which Poland is not prepared. The aim of the study was to critically analyse the activities to date in the field of energy transition in Poland. The second goal of the analysis was an attempt to answer the question of whether the process of energy transition and achieving the goals set in the EU's European Green Deal are possible at all until 2050. (2) To achieve the goals, the system method and the decision-making method were primarily used. These methods allowed for an examination of the main determinants of the Polish energy transformation. (3) The main results include the confirmation, contrary to the announcements of the Polish government, that despite the adoption in Poland of the strategy "Poland's energy policy until 2040", the effective implementation of the energy transition before 2050 is not only very difficult, but may even be impossible to implement in the assumed time. This is due to political, economic, social and technological conditions. Coal energy is outdated, expensive and ineffective. Due to natural conditions, wind energy is not able to meet the energy demand of the industry. The development of nuclear energy is only in the planning phase. (4) To sum up, in the next thirty years, Poland will not be able to achieve the assumed effects of the energy transition, which is in contradiction with the official declaration of the government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are numerous studies assessing the influence of individual sociological, political, and demographic factors on attitudes towards climate change. However, there is still a need for a deeper understanding of the reasons behind these attitudes and for research based on results from more than one country. This study empirically examines a range of psychosocial and demographic determinants of support for climate policy (renewable energy, energy efficiency and carbon tax) in Germany and Poland (n = 1969). The results show that the societies of both countries, despite significant differences in income, culture and political stance on climate change, similarly support implementation of climate policies. For both countries valid predictors of support are: awareness, emotional response to climate crisis, sense of control, and belief in effectiveness of solutions; the study also shows predictors relevant in only one country. Factor analysis identified similar dimensions of attitudes toward climate change in both countries. The main findings show that support for climate policy is high in both countries and that the public is ready to accept more ambitious climate goals. Despite the differences between the countries, a coherent climate policy seems justified. The study also shows differences between the countries and provides recommendations for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency measures and the deployment of renewable energy are commonly presented as two sides of the same coin—as necessary and synergistic measures to decarbonize energy systems and reach the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. Here, we quantitatively investigate the policies and performances of the EU Member States to see whether renewables and energy efficiency policies are politically synergistic or if they rather compete for political attention and resources. We find that Member States, especially the ones perceived as climate leaders, tend to prioritize renewables over energy efficiency in target setting. Further, almost every country performs well in either renewable energy or energy efficiency, but rarely performs well in both. We find no support for the assertion that the policies are synergistic, but some evidence that they compete. However, multi-linear regression models for performance show that performance, especially in energy efficiency, is also strongly associated with general economic growth cycles, and not only efficiency policy as such. We conclude that renewable energy and energy efficiency are not synergistic policies, and that there is some competition between them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world's economic development depends on access to cheap energy sources. So far, energy has been obtained mainly from conventional sources like coal, gas and oil. Negative climate changes related to the high emissions of the economy based on the combustion of hydrocarbons and the growing public awareness have made it necessary to look for new ecological energy sources. This condition can be met by renewable energy sources. Both social pressure and international activities force changes in the structure of sources from which energy is produced. This also applies to the European Union countries, including Poland. There are no scientific studies in the area of forecasting energy production from renewable energy sources for Poland. Therefore, it is reasonable to investigate this subject since such a forecast can have a significant impact on investment decisions in the energy sector. At the same time, it must be as reliable as possible. That is why a modern method was used for this purpose, which undoubtedly involves artificial neural networks. The following article presents the results of the analysis of energy production from renewable energy sources in Poland and the forecasts for this production until 2025. Artificial neural networks were used to make the forecast. The analysis covered eight main sources from which this energy is produced in Poland. Based on the production volume since 1990, predicted volumes of renewable energy sources until 2025 were determined. These forecasts were prepared for all studied renewable energy sources. Renewable energy production plans and their share in total energy consumption in Poland were also examined and included in climate plans. The research was carried out using artificial neural networks. The results should be an important source of information on the effects of implementing climate policies in Poland. They should also be utilized to develop action plans to achieve the objectives of the European Green Deal strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]