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Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the multifaced aspects and consequences of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from an Australia-China Relationship perspective. Design/methodology/approach: This paper leverages the SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis to examine both the internal and external factors that affect Australia and China in the context of the CBAM. In addition, we employ the PEST (Political, Economic, Social and Technological) framework to identify effective strategies for Australia-China cooperation following the implementation of the CBAM. Findings: Our analysis reveals numerous mutual interests and opportunities for bilateral collaboration, despite challenges and threats, positioning the CBAM as a potentially significant catalyst for joint initiatives. Practical implications: This paper proposes 10 potential areas for Australia and China cooperation from the political economic social and technological PEST dimensions. Originality/value: This paper makes a pioneering attempt to explore potential strategies, both individually, and together, that Australia and China can adopt to manage the impact and consequence of CBAM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will have a significant impact on the financial system, and it is crucial to evaluate the impact of climate risk on the financial system. In view of this, this paper evaluates the impact of climate transition risks on the financial system from the perspective of carbon tax. Based on the micro data of bank and enterprise loans, this paper uses a bottom-up approach to study the systemic risk of the banking sector caused by the carbon tax. Based on the actual data of China's banking sector in 2017, we find that there is an exponential relationship between the carbon tax and systemic risk, and there is a threshold for both the whole banking sector and different types of banks. When the carbon tax is higher than the threshold, systemic risk will increase significantly with the increase of the carbon tax level. At the same time, the results show that the systemic risk caused by the carbon tax has obvious sector heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity. Therefore, in the process of implementing carbon tax policies, the differences between sectors and regions should be taken into account, so as to effectively prevent and control systemic risks in the banking sector while improving the efficiency of carbon tax policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper examines China's policy and position in relation to the evolving climate change negotiations in order to explain how China is dealing with the dilemma of meeting its growing development needs while reducing GHG emissions. It argues that global climate governance requires steering and leadership to deal with the interlocked political process; that the developing countries (DCS) right to develop is challenged by the need for ecosystemic standards especially as climate change is seen as a zero-sum game as the more one country emits the less another one can. This is especially problematic as Industrialized countries (ICS) appear to be both unwilling and unable to increase growth without increasing emissions. This explains China's policy of insisting on its right to develop, of demanding that ics reduce their emissions and that they fulfil their obligations under the FCCC, while expressing its willingness to take on a voluntary target. The paper argues that China's state-led transition has eight unique characteristics that may allow it to lead as it moves beyond a no-regrets policy to a circular and green economy, cooperating with other DCS and mobilizing conscious green values in citizens. The question remains--will the initial success and scale of state-led transition lead the global green transition to a sustainable world? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a growing focus on uncertainty as a distinct concept in the risk literature. This paper is concerned with how those involved in the design and implementation of climate change policy conceptualize risk and uncertainty. Based on interviews with policy and industry elites in Australia, China and the UK, it finds that participants did not distinguish between "risk" and "uncertainty" in their conceptualization of climate threats. For the majority of them, politics was the most significant source of risk and uncertainty in climate policy, but delegation of otherwise political decisions to the market was seen as the best solution. The conclusion suggests that the conceptual distinction between risk and uncertainty is less important, for policy and industry elites, than the need to develop mechanisms that account for both persistent scientific uncertainties as well as interpretive and moral ambiguities in climate policy design and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has put great efforts into air pollution control over the past years and recently committed to its most ambitious climate target. Cost and benefit analysis has been widely used to evaluate the control policies in terms of past performance, future reduction potential, and direct and indirect impacts. To understand the cost and benefit analysis for air pollution control in China, we conducted a bibliometric review of more than 100 studies published over the past two decades, including the current research progress, most commonly adopted methods, and core findings. The control target in cost and benefit analysis has shifted in three stages, from individual and primary pollution control, moving to joint prevention of multiple and secondary pollutants, and then towards synergistic control of air pollution and carbon. With the expansion of the research scope, the integrated assessment model has gradually demonstrated the necessity for long-term ex-anti policy simulation, especially for dealing with complex factors. To ensure long-term air quality, climate, public health, and sustainable economic development, substantial evidence from published studies has suggested that China needs to continue its efforts in the upstream adjustment of the energy system and industrial structure with multi-regional and -sector collaboration. This cost and benefit review paper provides decision-makers with the fundamental information and knowledge gaps in air pollution control strategies in China, and direction for facing future challenges. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture has become an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper calculates the agricultural GHGs emissions of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2016, and analyzes the emission intensity of GDP of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide by club convergence. After using the DEA CCR model to divide the club, the absolute β-convergence analysis method is used to verify the emission trends of various greenhouse gases. The results showed that the carbon dioxide emission intensity showed obvious absolute β convergence in all three clubs. Methane and nitrous oxide only have absolute β convergence in one of the clubs, respectively, and there is divergence in other clubs. Since the emission trends of the three greenhouse gases in the clubs are different, the formulation of reasonable reduction target allocation plan should be more detailed and targeted, and more stringent emission reduction targets should be set for provinces with high GHGs intensity of GDP in order to reduce it rapidly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy-environmental efficiency directly relates to global climate change and sustainable development. The research applies a staggered DiD design to estimate the effects of low-carbon governance on energy-environmental efficiency via panel data of 284 cities in China. Results show that low-carbon governance significantly improves both unified energy-environmental efficiency and pure energy-environmental efficiency. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that low-carbon governance in central cities has no significant effect on energy-environmental efficiency, while that in peripheral cities can improve energy-environmental efficiency, which indirectly confirms the law of decreasing returns to scale. At the same time, low-carbon governance in both resource-based and non-resource-based cities improves energyenvironmental efficiency. However, among resource-based cities, low-carbon governance in growth and mature cities facilitates energy-environmental efficiency, while this effect disappears in declining and regeneration cities. Mechanism tests suggest that low-carbon governance immediately improves energy-environmental efficiency through intensive energy use and carbon emission reduction channels. The intermediate effect channels are mainly driven by fiscal decentralization, industrial structure upgrading, industrial agglomeration, innovation, and marketization, where fiscal decentralization plays a dominant role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we assess the effectiveness of early climate policy in emerging economies by causally evaluating the impact of China's Low-carbon City Pilot (LCCP) on city-level per-capita CO 2 emissions and CO 2 intensity of GDP over the period 2003–2017. The idiosyncrasies of the policy design pose significant challenges for causal identification, which we overcome within a synthetic control framework. Contrary to previous contributions, our results suggest that the LCCP had no significant impact on either carbon emissions or intensity. The main takeaway of our empirical investigation is that even in emerging economies, effective environmental policy requires transparent, quantifiable targets, and credible enforcement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how piloting programmes in China can promote local policy innovations. By using one of the piloting emission trading schemes (ETS) in Guangdong province as a case study, it is argued that the main features of the piloting experiments, particularly in the climate change domain, are largely different from previous local marketization experiments that dominate the reform period of China. Whereas previous experiments are often characterized as bottom-up or indigenous initiatives with strong patronage relations to the pro-reform politicians at central level, the current piloting programmes are often crafted in a top-down fashion that is often misaligned with local market or corporate interests. Hence, local policy innovations are designed, developed and brokered by the local state officers, in order to bridge this central–local interest gap. As a result, successful implementation of these policy innovations largely depends on local political traditions, bureaucratic culture and perceptions of distinctive development needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency standards for household appliances have been adopted in many countries to mitigate negative externalities, reduce emissions, and save energy. Using Chinese provincial-level panel data from 2008 to 2018, this paper builds a difference-in-difference model to examine the mechanism by which energy-efficiency upgrades in China's air conditioners affect urban household electricity usage. The results show that the upgrades have brought about an obvious reverse effect, with urban household electricity usage increasing rather than decreasing. Reducing the unit costs of energy service has enhanced residents' sensitivity to cooling demand. Driven by the substitution and income effects, urban residents may increase the intensity and frequency of their AC use. Additionally, this reverse effect is heterogeneously dependent on the family size and urban residents' age structure rather than their educational level. When families are larger and have more children, the reverse effect is more pronounced. This paper's findings provide useful recommendations for policy-makers to formulate policies that are synergistic with energy efficiency standards for household appliances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries. Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010-2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because China has emerged as the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter in total annual emissions, to accelerate the pace of GHG emission reduction in China is important to the success of global efforts in addressing climate change. Carbon trading is a market mechanism and key instrument in the mitigation of climate change. This paper explores the policy process and development state to date of China׳s carbon-trade market to understand the emergence and development of that market and to understand what barriers are hampering China׳s carbon-trade market development. To achieve this goal, this paper introduces and analyzes China׳s status in the international market, examines the factors driving carbon-market launching by the Chinese government, and traces the development of mandatory carbon-emission trading and voluntary emission trading. It is argued that China׳s carbon-trading market is confronted with challenges such as the absence of a functional carbon-trading market, inaccuracy of the quota allocation, an imperfect trading mechanism, and lagging legislation. At the present stage, shortcomings such as having no real-time carbon price and dominated spot transactions differentiate China׳s trade market substantially from a functional system. A quick market integration of China׳s carbon market appears remote. It is suggested that specific measures be taken to promote the development of the Chinese carbon-trading market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In view of the climate emergency, it is necessary to model and forecast road transport emissions for implementing more effective climate policy. This paper fills an important research gap by quantifying the challenges, barriers and remedies of achieving road transport emission reduction and air quality improvement in developing countries. It contributes to the debate on top-down and bottom-up approaches to reconcile carbon and other transport related emissions. China and India are chosen as case studies. Using various official statistics and proxy variables, we estimate and compare the road transport carbon emissions of the two countries systematically from 2009 to 2020. Insights from detailed mode-specific estimations of the bottom-up approach are valuable for targeted policies and measures. An analysis of the major components of road transport carbon emissions points to strategies of promoting electric vehicles, reducing transport demand, accelerating modal shift to low-carbon modes, and cleaner electricity to achieve climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We provide an analysis of the local policy innovations for constructing pilot emission trading schemes in China. • We argue that these experimental measures played an important role to establish effective trading facilities and regulatory frameworks. • We investigate the role of these local policy innovations to meet the challenges of applying market instrument in China's unique political, economic, and industrial contexts. • We discussed how these local policy innovations can be learned for the construction of nationwide carbon market. Abstract Harnessing market instruments of climate governance, such as emission trading schemes (ETS) into an authoritarian and highly fragmented governance system like China can be challenging. It requires tremendous efforts from local states for policy experiments and innovations. This paper examines these local adaptive measures to develop pilot ETS around China. The key finding is that these local policy innovations have played an important role to kick off carbon trading activities effectively, by addressing a number of challenges such as highly imbalanced economic and political contexts, very limited emissions data and technological capacity, and low participants' awareness of ETS. The implications of such policy innovations to the construction of a nationwide ETS system are also discussed. Some of local policy innovations can be legitimised and adopted into the design of national carbon market, while others are more likely appreciated only at initial stage of market development at local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable energy statistics serve as the foundation and starting point for understanding the climate policies of any country. As the most comprehensive sources of energy data for China, China Energy Statistics Yearbooks (ESY), published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), underwent three major revisions since 2005. This paper analyzes how these three major revisions correspond to data on China's energy use from 1996 to 2012, and theirs impacts on CO 2 emissions, emission intensity and the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption, which are key indicators of China's climate policies. Some notable changes include CO 2 emissions for 2012, which increased by 594 Million tons – a figure equivalent to South Korea's annual emissions, which implies that China's emissions at peak level will be higher than previous estimation. Meanwhile, revised emission intensity data show a higher amount and lower decreasing rate, which means that China's achievements in decreasing emission intensity during 2005–2012 have been overestimated, while future difficulties for achieving the goal of 40–45% reduction will be greater. On the share of non-fossil fuel energy in China's total energy mix, the adjustments increased the indicator by 1.26%, reflecting the fact that China's effort in developing non-fossil energy had been underestimated. Discrepancies in reported scattered coal in different statistics versions are the main contributors to these changes. To further enhance the reliability of its energy statistics, and thereby its climate policies, China should remove incentives for misreporting through legal means, and make the technical system for data collection more comprehensive and accurate, with particular emphasis on scattered coal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New developments in consumption-based emissions accounting suggest that the reductions claimed by wealthy, environmentally progressive nations have often come at the expense of increased emissions elsewhere – and thus net growth in global GHG concentrations. This paper traces Sweden's attempts to translate growing recognition of displaced emissions into national environmental policy. Drawing on multi-sited ethnographic research and policy analysis in Sweden and China, we argue that while the logical implications of consumption-based analyses point to the need to address production and consumption as an integrated system, complex governance challenges and the political precariousness of these ideas have thus far limited policy to the reinvention of consumer awareness campaigns and an international extension of long-standing ecological efficiency efforts. We argue that consumption-based emissions indicators justify more ambitious demand-side policy response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two emerging policy instruments, carbon pricing and green investments, highlight a complementary relationship between climate mitigation and economic growth. As such, they both advance climate policy differently from command-and-control methods. The central government in China has announced a vision of promoting the two emerging instruments; however, there may be a gap between the central government's vision and local governments' practice. This study measured the application of the three instruments (command-and-control, carbon pricing, and green investments) at the city-level, and described the trends in instrument use from 2011 to 2019. The overall evolution was as follows. Local governments adopted diversified instruments, including rapid but not widely developed carbon pricing, and maintained the command-and-control method. The evolution was different in cities that emphasized the co-benefits of climate and air pollution control; this reflected a binary instrument approach that included the development of both command-and-control and green investment methods. The results identified notable gaps in the application of the green investment method between central and local governments; however, in cities that emphasize co-benefits, the efforts to bridge central–local gaps should mainly focus on the carbon pricing method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An understanding of how storage technologies coordinate with other power resources to deliver value for electricity market participants in compliance with climate policy will be vital as policy makers seek to decarbonize electricity generation in a cost-effective way. This paper adopts a game-theoretic electricity market model to evaluate the interaction between pumped hydro storage, electric vehicles, and climate policy under a range of assumptions regarding market power and ownership of generation and storage assets. Using data from the Chinese electricity market, it shows that climate policy may not incentivize storage utilization especially when firms that hold a dominant position in storage operation own a limited portfolio of generation assets. In addition, electric vehicles may not improve consumers' welfare in the presence of pumped hydro storage when perfect competition exists in the market. These results have significant implications for public policy. • A game-theoretic electricity market model is evaluated for China. • The interaction between storage, electric vehicles, and climate policy is studied. • Climate policy may not incentivize storage use depending on the ownership of assets. • The benefits of electric vehicles decline in the presence of pumped hydro storage. • Perfect competition may not always create the best choices for consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although climate change and international trade are interdependent, policy-makers often address the two topics separately. This may inhibit progress at the intersection of climate change and trade and could present a serious constraint for global climate action. One key risk is carbon leakage through emission outsourcing, i.e. reductions in emissions in countries with rigorous climate policies being offset by increased emissions in countries with less stringent policies. We first analyze the Paris Agreement's nationally determined contributions (NDC) and investigate how carbon leakage is addressed. We find that the risk of carbon leakage is insufficiently accounted for in these documents. Then, we apply a novel quantitative approach (Jiborn et al., 2018; Baumert et al., 2019) to analyze trends in carbon outsourcing related to a previous international climate regime—the Kyoto Protocol—in order to assess whether reported emission reductions were offset by carbon outsourcing in the past. Our results for 2000–2014 show a more nuanced picture of carbon leakage during the Kyoto Protocol than previous studies have reported. Carbon outsourcing from developed to developing countries was dominated by the USA outsourcing to China, while the evidence for other developed countries was mixed. Against conventional wisdom, we find that, in general, countries that stayed committed to their Kyoto Protocol emission targets were either only minor carbon outsourcers or actually even insourcers—although the trend was slightly negative—indicating that binding emissions targets do not necessarily lead to carbon outsourcing. We argue that multiple carbon monitoring approaches are needed to reduce the risk of carbon leakage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How have 30 years of development in energy and climate policies influenced long-term trends in China and what does this imply for future climate policies? To answer the question, this article examines three decades of energy and climate policies in China. By providing an overarching review, it contributes new and updated research on drivers behind long-term climate policies and whether China's long-term emissions trend can be broken by placing greater emphasis on innovation, technology and low-carbon development. Importantly, it analyses the most recent policy developments in China, such as the likely effects of China's recent 2060 carbon neutrality goal. We conclude that after the Paris Agreement, the biggest policy change has been technological innovation in the power and transport sector. China has prioritized measures, laws and policies for developing renewable energy, especially solar and wind. China has also embraced the 'green growth' approach for responding to the challenges of climate change. These efforts have yielded results, and China has emerged as a world leader in renewable energy. However, there is still a long way to go. The upcoming 14th five-year plan will be critical for accelerating the energy transition, including setting a cap on coal in the national energy-transition strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide a new approach for identifying a strategic use of equity arguments in international (climate) negotiations. We first develop a theoretical model of strategic delegation which accounts for both environmental as well as equity preferences. We show that the strategic use of equity arguments qualitatively depends on the extent to which environmental preferences can be misrepresented: representatives from different countries may be expected to have similar equity views rather than widely differing perceptions of a fair share. Based on survey data on climate negotiations, we then provide empirical evidence for differences between equity preferences of citizens from Germany, China, and the U.S. and the perceived view on the position of their respective countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is preparing to develop and implement an emissions trading system in its 13th five-year plan. Allowance allocation is one of the key issues to settle during the establishment of this system. This study applies the China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis model to assess how the allowances should be allocated. Simulation results show that, while impacts on China's economic development vary according to how allowances are allocated, the negative impacts cannot be mitigated completely, which are between −0.5 and −0.1 % when 5 % of carbon emissions are reduced. In terms of the impacts on the macroeconomy, sectoral output, and capital revenue, results suggest that auctioning the allowances and recycling the revenue to reduce the indirect tax will perform best in alleviating the negative impacts. Meanwhile, impacts of carbon mitigation on international competitiveness can be reduced most in the approach where only key energy- and trade-intensive sectors are able to receive free allowances. However, if citizens' welfare and quality of life is prioritized, auctioning the allowance and transferring the revenue to households in proportion to their occupation will be the most effective approach; in this case, the negative impacts on rural households' disposable incomes and welfare will be reduced, and the income gap between rural and urban households will be narrowed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes governmental responses for the climate change challenge in China and Brazil. Both countries have a central role in the climate change debate since they are major greenhouse gases emitters, thus contributing to the aggravation of the problem, each with differentiated participation. At the same time, policy measures aimed at climate issues in these countries may lead to the reconfiguration of international negotiations on the topic. The methodological aspects include three main points of analysis: the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions in both countries; political and institutional structures mobilized to the climate issue and focusing on mitigation and policy responses related to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass has been widely recognized as an important energy source with high potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing environmental pollution. In this study, we employ the Global Change Assessment Model to estimate the potential of agricultural and forestry residue biomass for energy production in China. Potential availability of residue biomass as an energy source was analyzed for the 21st century under different climate policy scenarios. Currently, the amount of total annual residue biomass, averaged over 2003-2007, is around 15 519 PJ in China, consisting of 10 818 PJ from agriculture residues (70%) and 4701 PJ forestry residues (30%). We estimate that 12 693 PJ of the total biomass is available for energy production, with 66% derived from agricultural residue and 34% from forestry residue. Most of the available residue is from south central China (3347 PJ), east China (2862 PJ) and south-west China (2229 PJ), which combined exceeds 66% of the total national biomass. Under the reference scenario without carbon tax, the potential availability of residue biomass for energy production is projected to be 3380 PJ by 2050 and 4108 PJ by 2095, respectively. When carbon tax is imposed, biomass availability increases substantially. For the CCS 450 ppm scenario, availability of biomass increases to 9002 PJ (2050) and 11 524 PJ (2095), respectively. For the 450 ppm scenario without CCS, 9183 (2050) and 11 150 PJ (2095) residue biomass, respectively, is projected to be available. Moreover, the implementation of CCS will have a little impact on the supply of residue biomass after 2035. Our results suggest that residue biomass has the potential to be an important component in China's sustainable energy production portfolio. As a low carbon emission energy source, climate change policies that involve carbon tariff and CCS technology promote the use of residue biomass for energy production in a low carbon-constrained world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both Europe and China have announced targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable energy development. To achieve their emissions targets, Europe has introduced emissions trading scheme (ETS) since 2005 and China has planned to establish a national ETS in 2015. We assess the impact of a joint Europe-China ETS when both climate and energy policy instruments are simulated in a multiregional general equilibrium model. Our results show that a joint ETS markedly increases total carbon emissions from fossil fuels even though global mitigation costs are reduced. Moreover, a joint ETS helps China achieve its renewable energy target, but for Europe, it works opposite. While the renewable energy target does not help Europe achieve additional abatement, the renewable energy target in China reduces mitigation costs and emissions, and increases renewable energy consumption and sales of carbon allowances. Financial transfer through a joint ETS remains marginal compared to China's demand for renewable energy subsidies. We conclude that as long as an absolute emissions cap is missing in China, a joint ETS is not attractive for mitigation and China's renewable energy target can reduce emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China hosts over half of global coal-fired power generation capacity and has the world's largest coal reserves. Its 2060 carbon neutrality goal will require coal-fired electricity generation to shrink dramatically, with or without carbon capture and storage technology. Two macroeconomic areas in which the socioeconomic impact of this decline is felt are losses in jobs and tax revenues supported by thermal coal mining, transport and power generation. At the national level, under a 'baseline' (B) scenario consistent with China's carbon neutrality goal, labour productivity growth in coal mining implies that significant job losses will occur nationally in the medium term, even if all coal plants continue operating as planned. Jobs supported by the coal power industry would decline from an estimated 2.7 million in 2021, to 1.44 million in 2035 and 94,000 in 2050, with jobs losses from mining alone expected to exceed 1.1 million by 2035. Tax revenues from thermal coal would total approximately CNY 300 billion annually from 2021–2030, peaking in 2023 at CNY 340 billion. This is significantly less than estimated subsidies of at least CNY 480 billion, suggesting coal is likely a net fiscal drain on China's public finances, even without accounting for the costs of local pollution and the social cost of carbon. As coal plant retirements accelerate, from 2034 onwards, fiscal revenues begin to fall more rapidly, with rates of decline rising from 1% in the 2020s to over 10% a year by the 2040s. More aggressive climate policy and technology scenarios bring job and tax losses forward in time, while a No Transition policy, in which all currently planned coal plants are built, delays but does not ultimately prevent these losses. At the provincial level, China's major coal-producing provinces will likely face challenges in managing the localised effects of expected job losses and finding productive alternative uses for this labour. Governments of coal-producing provinces like Inner Mongolia, with an industry highly dependent on exports to other provinces, are more exposed than others to declining tax revenues from coal, and more insulated from job losses, given their high current degree of labour efficiency. Although their provincial revenues are likely to remain stable until the early 2030s under the B scenario, the possibility of increasing policy stringency underlines the need for revenue and skill base diversification. At the firm level, China's 'Big Five' state-owned power companies were responsible for over 40% of both jobs and tax revenues in 2021. The number of jobs supported by the activities of each of the largest ten firms, with one exception, will decline by 71–84% by the early 2040s, with the tax contribution of each declining by 43–69% in the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]