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This paper investigates the consequences of ignoring the clustered data structure on allometric models. Clustered data, in the form of multiple trees sampled from multiple forest stands is commonly used to develop biomass allometric models. Of 102 reviewed papers published between 2012 and 2016 that reported biomass allometric models, 84 (82%) have used a clustered sampling design. However, in as many as 80% of these, the clustered data structure was ignored, potentially violating the independence assumption in ordinary least squares methods. The consequences of ignoring clustered data structure were empirically validated using two clustered biomass datasets (of 110 and 220 trees, with the cluster size of 5 and 10 trees respectively). We showed that when Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure returned underestimated standard errors, affecting further the confidence interval and t-test results. The underestimation level depended on ICC (which shows the variance proportion that was caused by the forest stand) and on cluster size (the number of trees sampled from one forest stand). We also showed that using first-order autocorrelation tests, such as the traditional Durbin-Watson statistic, to detect the autocorrelation due to clustered structure could be misleading as the test may show lack of autocorrelation even though ICC is different from zero. In conclusion, when ICC is higher than zero, ignoring the clustered data structure yields over-confident biomass predictions (due to underestimated confidence interval) and/or incorrect research conclusions (due to overestimated evidence against null hypothesis in t-test). Therefore, using a modelling approach that accounts for the hierarchical structure of the data is highly recommended when any form of clustering can be identified, even if the autocorrelation is not significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and land use change are two major elements of human-induced global environmental change. In temperate grasslands and woodlands, increasing frequency of extreme weather events like droughts and increasing severity of wildfires has altered the structure and dynamics of vegetation. In this paper, we studied the impact of wildfires and the year-to-year differences in precipitation on species composition changes in semi-arid grasslands of a forest-steppe complex ecosystem which has been partially disturbed by wildfires. Particularly, we investigated both how long-term compositional dissimilarity changes and species richness are affected by year-to-year precipitation differences on burnt and unburnt areas. Study sites were located in central Hungary, in protected areas characterized by partially-burnt, juniper-poplar forest-steppe complexes of high biodiversity. Data were used from two long-term monitoring sites in the Kiskunság National Park, both characterized by the same habitat complex. We investigated the variation in species composition as a function of time using distance decay methodology. In each sampling area, compositional dissimilarity increased with the time elapsed between the sampling events, and species richness differences increased with increasing precipitation differences between consecutive years. We found that both the long-term compositional dissimilarity, and the year-to-year changes in species richness were higher in the burnt areas than in the unburnt ones. The long-term compositional dissimilarities were mostly caused by perennial species, while the year-to-year changes of species richness were driven by annual and biennial species. As the effect of the year-to-year variation in precipitation was more pronounced in the burnt areas, we conclude that canopy removal by wildfires and extreme inter-annual variability of precipitation, two components of global environmental change, act in a synergistic way. They enhance the effect of one another, resulting in greater long-term and year-to-year changes in the composition of grasslands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models project an increase in mean annual air temperatures and a reduction in the depth and duration of winter snowpack for many mid and high latitude and high elevation seasonally snow-covered ecosystems over the next century. The combined effects of these changes in climate will lead to warmer soils in the growing season and increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in winter due to the loss of a continuous, insulating snowpack. Previous experiments have warmed soils or removed snow via shoveling or with shelters to mimic projected declines in the winter snowpack. To our knowledge, no experiment has examined the interactive effects of declining snowpack and increased frequency of soil FTCs, combined with soil warming in the snow-free season on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, none have mimicked directly the projected increase in soil FTC frequency in tall statured forests that is expected as a result of a loss of insulating snow in winter. We established the Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire in 2012 to assess the combined effects of these changes in climate on a variety of pedoclimate conditions, biogeochemical processes, and ecology of northern hardwood forests. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating soil FTC events in a tall statured ecosystem in winter to simulate the projected increase in soil FTC frequency over the next century and combines this projected change in winter climate with ecosystem warming throughout the snow-free season. Together, this experiment provides a new and more comprehensive approach for climate change experiments that can be adopted in other seasonally snow-covered ecosystems to simulate expected changes resulting from global air temperature rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher global temperatures and increased levels of disturbance are contributing to greater tree mortality in many forest ecosystems. These same drivers can also limit forest regeneration, leading to vegetation type conversion. For the Sierra Nevada of California, little is known about how type conversion may affect streamflow, a critical source of water supply for urban, agriculture and environmental purposes. In this paper, we examined the effects of tree-to-shrub type conversion, in combination with climate change, on streamflow in two lower montane forest watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. A spatially distributed ecohydrologic model was used to simulate changes in streamflow, evaporation, and transpiration following type conversion, with an explicit focus on the role of vegetation size and aspect. Model results indicated that streamflow may show negligible change or small decreases following type conversion when the difference between tree and shrub leaf areas is small, partly due to the higher stomatal conductivity and the deep rooting depth of shrubs. In contrast, streamflow may increase when post-conversion shrubs have a small leaf area relative to trees. Model estimates also suggested that vegetation change could have a greater impact on streamflow magnitude than the direct hydrologic impacts of increased temperatures. Temperature increases, however, may have a greater impact on streamflow timing. Tree-to-shrub type conversion increased streamflow only marginally during dry years (annual precipitation < 800 mm), with most streamflow change observed during wetter years. These modeling results underscore the importance of accounting for changes in vegetation communities to accurately characterize future hydrologic regimes for the Sierra Nevada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change alters the dynamic of natural ecosystems and directly affects species distributions, persistence and diversity. The impacts of climate change may lead to dramatic changes in biotic interactions, such as pollination and seed dispersal. Life history traits are extremely important to consider the vulnerability of a species to climate change, producing more robust models than those based primarily on species distributions. Here, we hypothesized that rising temperatures and aridity will reduce suitable habitats for the endemic flora of the Caatinga, the most diverse dry tropical forest on Earth. Specifically, species with specialized reproductive traits (e.g. vertebrate pollination, biotic dispersal, obligatory cross-pollination) should be more affected by climate change than those with generalist traits. We performed two ecological niche models (current and future) to simulate the effects of climate change on the distribution area of endemic species in relation to life-history traits. We used the MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 models for both intermediate (RCP4.5) and highest predicted (RCP8.5) GHG emission scenarios, with a resolution of 30' (~1 km2). Habitat with high occurrence probability (>80%) of endemic species will be reduced (up to ~10% for trees, ~13% for non-arboreous, 10–28% for species with any pollination/reproductive system), with the greatest reductions for species with specialized reproductive traits. In addition, the likely concentration of endemic plants in the extreme northeastern portion of the Caatinga, in more mesic areas, coincides with the currently most human-modified areas of the ecosystem, which combined with climate change will further contract suitable habitats of endemic species. In conclusion, plant species endemic to the Caatinga are highly vulnerable to even conservative scenarios of future climate change and may lose much of their climatic envelopes. New protected areas should be located in the northeastern portion of the Caatinga, which hosts a more favorable climate, but is currently exposed to escalating agricultural intensification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managers need information about the vulnerability of historical plant communities, and their potential future conditions, to respond appropriately to landscape change driven by global climate change. We model the climate envelopes of plant communities on the Kenai Peninsula in Southcentral Alaska and forecast to 2020, 2050, and 2080. We assess 6 model outputs representing downscaled climate data from 3 global climate model outputs and 2 representative concentration pathways. We use two lines of evidence, model convergence and empirically measured rates of change, to identify the following plausible ecological trajectories for the peninsula: (1.) alpine tundra and sub-alpine shrub decrease, (2.) perennial snow and ice decrease, (3.) forests remain on the Kenai Lowlands, (4.) the contiguous white-Lutz-Sitka spruce complex declines, and (5.) mixed conifer afforestation occurs along the Gulf of Alaska coast. We suggest that converging models in the context of other lines of evidence is a viable approach to increase certainty for adaptation planning. Extremely dynamic areas with multiple outcomes (i.e., disagreement) among models represent ecological risk, but may also represent opportunities for facilitated adaptation and other managerial approaches to help tip the balance one way or another. By reducing uncertainty, this eclectic approach can be used to inform expectations about the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intraspecific trait variation has been singled out as an important mechanism by which individuals can cope with environmental variations and avoid local extinctions. Here we evaluate variation in metamer traits (i.e., traits associated with internodes, petioles and their corresponding leaves) and parameters of chlorophyll fluorescence within and among populations of a neotropical tree, Copaifera langsdorffii. We also evaluated phenotypic plasticity in natural settings comparing traits between shade and sun-exposed metamers. We selected six populations along a climatic gradient ranging from semi-arid to humid and representing three different biomes (Caatinga, Cerrado, and Atlantic Forest). Local climatic conditions significantly affected the morphological and physiological traits of populations. Trait variation among populations was explained mainly by aridity index and evapotranspiration. Individuals from drier regions had lower specific leaf area (SLA), lower investment in leaf area per total dry mass of metamer (LARm), lower specific petiole length (SPL) and lower potential quantum yield (Fv/Fm, only for sun-exposed metamers). Populations from locations with greater environmental heterogeneity (interannual variation) had greater plasticity in response to light for Fv/Fm and electron transport rate (ETR) and morphological traits related to the hydraulic and biomechanical aspects of the leaves (petiole length, internode length and SPL). High intraspecific variation in metamer traits in C. langsdorffii coupled with its ability to modify these traits in response to different climate conditions can explain the success of the species over a range of different habitats and represent important factors for the persistence of this species in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how climate change affects host-parasite systems and predicting the consequences for ecosystems, economies, and human health has emerged as an important task for science and society. Some basic insight into this complex problem can be gained by comparing the thermal physiology of interacting host and parasite species. In this study, we compared upper thermal tolerance among three component species in a natural host-parasitoid-hyperparasitoid system from Virginia, USA. To assess the ecological relevance of our results, we also examined a record of maximum daily air temperatures collected near the study site in the last 124 years. We found that the caterpillar host Manduca sexta had a critical thermal maximum (CTmax) about 4°C higher than the parasitic wasp, Cotesia congregata, and the hyperparasitic wasp, Conura sp., had a CTmax about 6°C higher than its host, C. congregata. We also found significant differences in CTmax among instars and between parasitized and non-parasitized M. sexta. The highest maximum daily air temperature recorded near the study in the last 124 years was 42°C, which equals the average CTmax of one species (C. congregata) but is several degrees lower than the average CTmax of the other two species (M. sexta, Conura sp.) in this study. Our results combined with other studies suggest that significant differences in thermal performance within and among interacting host and parasite species are common in nature and that climate change may be largely disruptive to these systems with responses that are highly variable and complex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The R-package allows to model and compare fluctuations of Tree-ring Width (TRW) and climate, or dendroclimatic fluctuations, while accounting for source variability. The package eases multilevel modeling and multivariate comparison in dendroclimatic analysis using the and packages, respectively. For implementing such libraries, the in-package algorithms transform the dendroclimatic fluctuations into Multilevel Dendroclimatic Data Series and maintain categorical variables and time units in the outputs. The dendroclimatic modeling is developed with two functions: and . The first function binds core-level cumulative TRWs to the processed data sets and subtracts trends in TRWs by fitting multilevel log-linear growth formulas or multilevel linear formulas. can also model within-group fluctuations in dendroclimatic variables other than tree-radial increments such as aridity indices or allometric components of tree growth: e.g. diameters at breast height over bark, tree basal areas, total tree biomass, among other. The second function compares fluctuations in objects that share outermost categorical variable and annual records. Here, we use BIOdry to model dendroclimatic relationships in northern and east-central Spain to illustrate future users in the implementation of the package for modeling ecological relationships in space and time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our aims were to quantify and map the plant sub regions of the the Caatinga, that covers 844,453 km2 and is the largest block of seasonally dry forest in South America. We performed spatial analyses of the largest dataset of woody plant distributions in this region assembled to date (of 2,666 shrub and tree species; 260 localities), compared these distributions with the current phytogeographic regionalizations, and investigated the potential environmental drivers of the floristic patterns in these sub regions. Phytogeographical regions were identified using quantitative analyses of species turnover calculated as Simpson dissimilarity index. We applied an interpolation method to map NMDS axes of compositional variation over the entire extent of the Caatinga, and then classified the compositional dissimilarity according to the number of biogeographical sub regions identified a priori using k-means analysis. We used multinomial logistic regression models to investigate the influence of contemporary climatic productivity, topographic complexity, soil characteristics, climate stability since the last glacial maximum, and the human footprint in explaining the identified sub regions. We identified nine spatially cohesive biogeographical sub regions. Current productivity, as indicated by an aridity index, was the only explanatory variable retained in the best model, explaining nearly half of the floristic variability between sub regions. The highest rates of endemism within the Caatinga were in the Core and Periphery Chapada Diamantina sub regions. Our findings suggest that the topographic complexity, soil variation, and human footprint in the Caatinga act on woody plant distributions at local scales and not as determinants of broad floristic patterns. The lack of effect of climatic stability since the last glacial maximum probably results from the fact that a single measure of climatic stability does not adequately capture the highly dynamic climatic shifts the region suffered during the Pleistocene. There was limited overlap between our results and previous Caatinga classifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reduced climatic suitability due to climate change in cocoa growing regions of Ghana is expected in the coming decades. This threatens farmers’ livelihood and the cocoa sector. Climate change adaptation requires an improved understanding of existing cocoa production systems and farmers’ coping strategies. This study characterized current cocoa production, income diversification and shade tree management along a climate gradient within the cocoa belt of Ghana. The objectives were to 1) compare existing production and income diversification between dry, mid and wet climatic regions, and 2) identify shade trees in cocoa agroforestry systems and their distribution along the climatic gradient. Our results showed that current mean cocoa yield level of 288kg ha-1yr-1 in the dry region was significantly lower than in the mid and wet regions with mean yields of 712 and 849 kg ha-1 yr-1, respectively. In the dry region, farmers diversified their income sources with non-cocoa crops and off-farm activities while farmers at the mid and wet regions mainly depended on cocoa (over 80% of annual income). Two shade systems classified as medium and low shade cocoa agroforestry systems were identified across the studied regions. The medium shade system was more abundant in the dry region and associated to adaptation to marginal climatic conditions. The low shade system showed significantly higher yield in the wet region but no difference was observed between the mid and dry regions. This study highlights the need for optimum shade level recommendation to be climatic region specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is restructuring plant populations and can result in range shifts depending on responses at various life stages of plants. In 2013, a widespread and episodic flowering event provided an opportunity to characterize how Joshua tree’s reproductive success and population structure vary in response to the climate variability across its range. We examined the reproductive success and stand structure of 10 Joshua tree populations distributed across the Mojave Desert. Joshua tree density varied by more than an order of magnitude across sites. At 8 of the 10 sites, nearly 80% of the Joshua trees were in bloom, and at the other two 40% were in bloom. The range of seed production and fruit set across the study populations varied by more than an order of magnitude. Fruit production occurred at all of our study sites suggesting that yucca moth pollinators were present at our sites. Increasing temperature had strong positive correlations with the number of trees in bloom (R2 = 0.42), inflorescences per tree (R2 = 0.37), and fruit mass (R2 = 0.77) and seed size (R2 = 0.89. In contrast, temperature was negatively correlated with Joshua tree stand density (R2 = -0.80). Positive correlations between temperature and greater flower and seed production suggest that warming may positively affect Joshua Tree reproduction while negative relationships between temperature and stand density are suggestive of potential constraints of warmer temperatures on establishment success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonally dry forests in the neotropics are heavily threatened by a combination of human disturbances and climate change; however, the severity of these threats is seldom contrasted. This study aims to quantify and compare the effects of deforestation and climate change on the natural spatial ranges of 17 characteristic tree species of southern Ecuador dry deciduous forests, which are heavily fragmented and support high levels of endemism as part of the Tumbesian ecoregion. We used 660 plant records to generate species distribution models and land-cover data to project species ranges for two time frames: a simulated deforestation scenario from 2008 to 2014 with native forest to anthropogenic land-use conversion, and an extreme climate change scenario (CCSM4.0, RCP 8.5) for 2050, which assumed zero change from human activities. To assess both potential threats, we compared the estimated annual rates of species loss (i.e., range shifts) affecting each species. Deforestation loss for all species averaged approximately 71 km2/year, while potential climate-attributed loss was almost 21 km2/year. Moreover, annual area loss rates due to deforestation were significantly higher than those attributed to climate-change (P < 0.01). However, projections into the future scenario show evidence of diverging displacement patterns, indicating the potential formation of novel ecosystems, which is consistent with other species assemblage predictions as result of climate change. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for management and conservation, prioritizing the most threatened species such as Albizia multiflora, Ceiba trichistandra, and Cochlospermum vitifolium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat loss and fragmentation are among the biggest threats to tropical biodiversity and associated ecosystem services. We examined forest dynamics in a mid-elevation 365-ha fragment in southern Costa Rica. The fragment was isolated in the mid-1970s and belongs to the Las Cruces Biological Station. A 2.25-ha permanent plot was established in the center of the old-growth forest (>400 m to nearest edge boundary) and all plants >5 cm DBH were censused, mapped, and identified to species in two surveys taken ~5–6 years apart (>3,000 stems/survey). Although the reserve maintains high species richness (>200 spp.), with many rare species represented by only one individual, we document a strong shift in composition with a two-fold increase in the number of soft-wooded pioneer individuals. The dominant late-successional understory tree species, Chrysochlamys glauca (Clusiaceae), and most species in the Lauraceae, declined dramatically. Turnover was high: 22.9% of stems in the first survey were lost, and 27.8% of stems in the second survey represented new recruits. Mean tree diameter decreased significantly and there was a 10% decrease in overall biomass. Such alteration has been documented previously but only in smaller fragments or within ~100 m of an edge boundary. Further penetration into this fragment was perhaps driven by a progressive invasion of disturbance-adapted species into the fragment’s core over time; the loss of once-dominant late successional species could be a contributing factor. The pattern found is of particular concern given that such fragments represent a substantial portion of today’s remaining tropical habitat; further studies in similar-sized fragments that have been isolated for similar prolonged periods are called for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic change-induced water stress has been found to threaten the viability of trees, especially endangered species, through inhibiting their recruitment. Nyssa yunnanensis, a plant species with extremely small populations (PSESP), consists of only two small populations of eight mature individuals remaining in southwestern China. In order to determine the barriers to regeneration, both in situ and laboratory experiments were performed to examine the critical factors hindering seed germination and seedling establishment. The results of in situ field experiments demonstrated that soil water potentials lower than -5.40 MPa (experienced in December) had significantly inhibitory effects on seedling survival, and all seedlings perished at a soil water potential of -5.60 MPa (January). Laboratory experiments verified that N. yunnanensis seedlings could not survive at a 20% PEG 6000 concentration (-5.34 MPa) or 1/5 water-holding capacity (WHC; -5.64 MPa), and seed germination was inhibited in the field from September (-1.10 MPa) to November (-4.30 MPa). Our results suggested that soil water potentials between -5.34 and -5.64 MPa constituted the range of soil water potentials in which N. yunnanensis seedlings could not survive. In addition to water deficit, intensified autotoxicity, which is concentration-dependent, resulted in lower seed germination and seedling survival. Thus, seed establishment was probably simultaneously impacted by water deficit and aggravated autotoxicity. Meteorological records from the natural distribution areas of N. yunnanensis indicated that mean annual rainfall and relative humidity have declined by 21.7% and 6.3% respectively over past 55 years, while the temperature has increased by 6.0%. Climate change-induced drought, along with a poor resistance and adaptability to drought stress, has severely impacted the natural regeneration of N. yunnanensis. In conclusion, climate change-induced drought has been implicated as a regulating factor in the natural regeneration of N. yunnanensis through suppressing seed germination and screening out seedlings in the dry season. Based on the experimental findings, habitat restoration and microclimate improvement should both be highlighted in the conservation of this particular plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The studies in this PLOS ONE collection investigated the feasibility of community participation in Measuring, Reporting and Verifying (Participatory MRV–PMRV) initiatives in the context of national programs to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). While such participation is desirable, its feasibility has been uncertain. This collection builds the empirical foundations for putting PMRV into practice. The authors of this article identified five crucial considerations: (1) clarify the stakeholders, (2) understand their motivation to participate, (3) integrate knowledge and information from multiple disciplines and sources, (4) convey knowledge and information across multiple levels of governance, and (5) clarify and enable the links to REDD+ safeguards. We conclude that local communities and other local actors can play a major role in achieving REDD+ MRV, however, this requires attention to their needs and motivations. Future activities should include assessment of past PMRV experiences, costs and benefits, operationalization of reporting and verification, formalization of PMRV and full scale testing on the ground. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing how climate change affects vegetation distribution is one of the central issues of global change ecology as this has important implications for the carbon budget of terrestrial vegetation. Mapping vegetation distribution under historical climate scenarios is essential for understanding the response of vegetation distribution to future climatic changes. The reconstructions of palaeovegetation based on pollen data provide a useful method to understand the relationship between climate and vegetation distribution. However, this method is limited in time and space. Here, using species distribution model (SDM) approaches, we explored the climatic determinants of contemporary vegetation distribution and reconstructed the distribution of Chinese vegetation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) and Middle-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP). The dynamics of vegetation distribution since the LGM reconstructed by SDMs were largely consistent with those based on pollen data, suggesting that the SDM approach is a useful tool for studying historical vegetation dynamics and its response to climate change across time and space. Comparison between the modeled contemporary potential natural vegetation distribution and the observed contemporary distribution suggests that temperate deciduous forests, subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests, temperate deciduous shrublands and temperate steppe have low range fillings and are strongly influenced by human activities. In general, the Tibetan Plateau, North and Northeast China, and the areas near the 30°N in Central and Southeast China appeared to have experienced the highest turnover in vegetation due to climate change from the LGM to the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To test whether novel and previously hypothesized biogeogaphic barriers in the Australian Tropics represent significant disjunction points or hard barriers, or both, to the distribution of plants. Location: Australian tropics: Australian Monsoon Tropics and Australian Wet Tropics. Methods: The presence or absence of 6,861 plant species was scored across 13 putative biogeographic barriers in the Australian Tropics, including two that have not previously been recognised. Randomizations of these data were used to test whether more species showed disjunctions (gaps in distribution) or likely barriers (range limits) at these points than expected by chance. Results: Two novel disjunctions in the Australian Tropics flora are identified in addition to eleven putative barriers previously recognized for animals. Of these, eleven disjunction points (all within the Australian Monsoon Tropics) were found to correspond to range-ending barriers to a significant number of species, while neither of the two disjunctions found within the Australian Wet Tropics limited a significant number of species’ ranges. Main conclusions: Biogeographic barriers present significant distributional limits to native plant species in the Australian Monsoon Tropics but not in the Australian Wet Tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen’s (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host’s risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available. While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change. Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hengduan Mountains, with a distinct altitudinal differentiation and strong vertical vegetation zonation, occupy an important position in southwestern China as a global hotspot of biodiversity. Pollen analysis of lake sediments sampled along an altitudinal gradient in this region helps us to understand how this vegetation zonation arose and how it has responded to climate change and human impacts through time. Here we present a ~30-ka pollen record and interpret it in terms of vegetational and climatic change from a 310 cm-long core from Shudu Lake, located in the Hengduan Mountains region. Our results suggest that from 30 to 22 cal. ka BP, the vegetation was dominated by steppe/grassland (comprising mainly Artemisia, Poaceae and Polygonaceae) and broad-leaved forest (primarily Quercus, Betula and Castanopsis) in the lake catchment, reflecting a relatively warm, wet climate early in this phase and slightly warmer, drier conditions late in the phase. The period between 22 and 13.9 cal. ka BP was marked by a large expansion of needle- and broad-leaved mixed forest (Pinus, Abies and Quercus) and a decline in the extent of steppe/grassland, indicating warming, drying climatic conditions followed by a cold, wet period. Between 13.9 and 3 cal. ka BP, steppe/grassland expanded and the area covered by needle- and broad-leaved mixed forest reduced, implying a fluctuating climate dominated by warm and humid conditions. After 3 cal. ka BP, the vegetation was characterized by an increase in needle-leaved forest and reduction in steppe/grassland, suggesting warming and drying climate. A synthesis of palynological investigations from this and other sites suggests that the vegetation succession patterns seen along an altitudinal gradient in northwestern Yunnan since the Late Pleistocene are comparable, but that each site has its own characteristics probably due to the influences of altitude, topography, microclimate and human impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is facilitating rapid changes in the composition and distribution of vegetation at northern latitudes, raising questions about the responses of wildlife that rely on arctic ecosystems. One widely observed change occurring in arctic tundra ecosystems is an increasing dominance of deciduous shrub vegetation. Our goals were to examine the tolerance of arctic-nesting bird species to existing gradients of vegetation along the boreal forest-tundra ecotone, to predict the abundance of species across different heights and densities of shrubs, and to identify species that will be most or least responsive to ongoing expansion of shrubs in tundra ecosystems. We conducted 1,208 point counts on 12 study blocks from 2012–2014 in northwestern Alaska, using repeated surveys to account for imperfect detection of birds. We considered the importance of shrub height, density of low and tall shrubs (i.e. shrubs >0.5 m tall), percent of ground cover attributed to shrubs (including dwarf shrubs <0.5 m tall), and percent of herbaceous plant cover in predicting bird abundance. Among 17 species considered, only gray-cheeked thrush (Catharus minimus) abundance was associated with the highest values of all shrub metrics in its top predictive model. All other species either declined in abundance in response to one or more shrub metrics or reached a threshold where further increases in shrubs did not contribute to greater abundance. In many instances the relationship between avian abundance and shrubs was nonlinear, with predicted abundance peaking at moderate values of the covariate, then declining at high values. In particular, a large number of species were responsive to increasing values of average shrub height with six species having highest abundance at near-zero values of shrub height and abundance of four other species decreasing once heights reached moderate values (≤ 33 cm). Our findings suggest that increases in shrub cover and density will negatively affect abundance of only a few bird species and may potentially be beneficial for many others. As shrub height increases further, however, a considerable number of tundra bird species will likely find habitat increasingly unsuitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the influence of climatic and/or site-specific factors on soil organic matter (SOM) along an elevation gradient is important for understanding the response of SOM to global warming. We evaluated the composition of SOM and structure of humic acids along an altitudinal gradient from 600 to 1400 m in moso bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis) plantations in central Taiwan using NMR spectroscopy and photometric analysis. Total organic C and total nitrogen (N) content increased with increasing elevation. Aromaticity decreased and ΔlogK (the logarithm of the absorbance ratio of humic acids at 400 and 600 nm) increased with increasing elevation, which suggests that SOM humification decreased with increasing elevation. High temperature at low elevations seemed to enhance the decomposition (less accumulation of total organic C and N) and humification (high aromaticity and low ΔlogK). The alkyl-C/O-alkyl-C (A/O-A) ratio of humic acids increased with increasing elevation, which suggests that SOM humification increased with increasing elevation; this finding was contrary to the trend observed for ΔlogK and aromaticity. Such a discrepancy might be due to the relatively greater remaining of SOM derived from high alkyl-C broadleaf litter of previous forest at high elevations. The ratio of recalcitrant C to total organic C was low at low elevations, possibly because of enhanced decomposition of recalcitrant SOM from the previous broadleaf forest during long-term intensive cultivation and high temperature. Overall, the change in SOM pools and in the rate of humification with elevation was primarily affected by changes in climatic conditions along the elevation gradient in these bamboo plantations. However, when the composition of SOM, as assessed by NMR spectroscopy and photometric analysis was considered, site-specific factors such as residual SOM from previous forest and intensive cultivation history could also have an important effect on the humic acid composition and humification of SOM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency, magnitude, and size of forest disturbances are increasing globally. Much recent research has focused on how the occurrence of one disturbance may affect susceptibility to subsequent disturbances. While much has been learned about such linked disturbances, the strength of the interactions is likely to be contingent on the severity of disturbances as well as climatic conditions, both of which can affect disturbance intensity and tree resistance to disturbances. Subalpine forests in western Colorado were affected by extensive and severe wildfires in the late 19th century and an extensive and severe outbreak of spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in the 1940s. Previous research found that most, but not all, of the stands that burned and established following the late 19th century fires were not susceptible to the 1940s outbreak as beetles preferentially attack larger trees and stands in advanced stages of development. However, previous research also left open the possibility that some stands that burned and established following the 19th century fires may have been attacked during the 1940s outbreak. Understanding how strongly stand structure, as shaped by disturbances of varying severity, affected susceptibility to past outbreaks is important to provide a baseline for assessing the degree to which recent climate change may be relaxing the preferences of beetles for larger trees and for stands in latter stages of structural development and thereby changing the nature of linked disturbances. Here, dendroecological methods were used to study disturbance history and tree age of stands in the White River National Forest in Western Colorado that were identified in historical documents or remotely-sensed images as having burned in the 19th century and having been attacked by spruce beetle in the 1940s. Dendroecological reconstructions indicate that in young post-fire stands only old remnant trees that survived the otherwise stand-replacing fires were killed in the 1940s outbreak. No young post-fire trees (< ca. 128 years) were susceptible to the 1940s outbreak, implying that under the relatively cool and wet conditions of the mid-20th century, susceptibility to and spatial patterns of spruce beetle outbreak were most likely controlled by variations in severity of prior disturbance by fire. This study provides a baseline for comparing linked disturbances under the relatively warmer and drier conditions of recent (e.g. post-1990) outbreaks in order to assess how climate mitigates the degree to which pre-disturbance history and structure affect susceptibility to disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity—non-random structural patterns of ecological networks—influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge about the spatiotemporal tree growth variability and its associations with climate provides key insights into forest dynamics under future scenarios of climate change. We synthesized 17 tree-ring width chronologies from four tree species at the high-elevation sites in the southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP) to study the regional tree growth variability and climate-growth relationships. Despite of diverse habitats and different physiological characteristics of these species, these tree-ring chronologies shared a significant common variance in SETP. An unprecedented increase in the shared variance is found along the latter half of the 20th century, coinciding with the enhancement of the frequency of extreme rings among chronologies. It is found that minimum winter temperature tends to be the dominant climate for trees in this region. The site-specific responses in cold (1965–1980) and warm (1990–2005) intervals by means of Fuzzy Cmeans (FCM) clustering reveal that the remarkable enhancement of growth synchrony among trees mainly occur in warm conditions. This is different from previous findings indicating that increased consistence among temperature sensitive tree rings in cold periods. This may be related to the reduced temperature sensitivity of regional tree growth as winter minimum temperature is lower than a certain threshold, which is in agreement with the “principle of ecological amplitude”. In addition, it is worth noting that precipitation in June have started to restrain the tree growth since the beginning of the 1980s, which is possibly an important contributor for synchronized growth among trees in SETP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Provenance studies are an increasingly important analog for understanding how trees adapted to particular climatic conditions might respond to climate change. Dendrochronological analysis can illuminate differences among trees from different seed sources in terms of absolute annual growth and sensitivity to external growth factors. We analyzed annual radial growth of 567 36-year-old pitch pine (Pinus rigida Mill.) trees from 27 seed sources to evaluate their performance in a New Jersey Pine Barrens provenance experiment. Unexpectedly, missing rings were prevalent in most trees, and some years—1992, 1999, and 2006—had a particularly high frequency of missing rings across the plantation. Trees from local seed sources (<55 km away from the plantation) had a significantly smaller percentage of missing rings from 1980–2009 (mean: 5.0%), relative to northernmost and southernmost sources (mean: 9.3% and 7.9%, respectively). Some years with a high frequency of missing rings coincide with outbreaks of defoliating insects or dry growing season conditions. The propensity for missing rings synchronized annual variations in growth across all trees and might have complicated the detection of potential differences in interannual variability among seed sources. Average ring width was significantly larger in seed sources from both the southernmost and warmest origins compared to the northernmost and coldest seed sources in most years. Local seed sources had the highest average radial growth. Adaptation to local environmental conditions and disturbances might have influenced the higher growth rate found in local seed sources. These findings underscore the need to understand the integrative impact of multiple environmental drivers, such as disturbance agents and climate change, on tree growth, forest dynamics, and the carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savannah regions are predicted to undergo changes in precipitation patterns according to current climate change projections. This change will affect leaf phenology, which controls net primary productivity. It is of importance to study this since savannahs play an important role in the global carbon cycle due to their areal coverage and can have an effect on the food security in regions that depend on subsistence farming. In this study we investigate how soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, and day length control savannah phenology by developing a lagged time series model. The model uses climate data for 15 flux tower sites across four continents, and normalized difference vegetation index from satellite to optimize a statistical phenological model. We show that all three variables can be used to estimate savannah phenology on a global scale. However, it was not possible to create a simplified savannah model that works equally well for all sites on the global scale without inclusion of more site specific parameters. The simplified model showed no bias towards tree cover or between continents and resulted in a cross-validated r2 of 0.6 and root mean squared error of 0.1. We therefore expect similar average results when applying the model to other savannah areas and further expect that it could be used to estimate the productivity of savannah regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined the roles of lithology, topography, vegetation and fire in generating local-scale (<1 km2) soil spatial variability in a seasonally dry tropical forest (SDTF) in southern India. For this, we mapped soil (available nutrients, Al, total C, pH, moisture and texture in the top 10cm), rock outcrops, topography, all native woody plants ≥1 cm diameter at breast height (DBH), and spatial variation in fire frequency (times burnt during the 17 years preceding soil sampling) in a permanent 50-ha plot. Unlike classic catenas, lower elevation soils had lesser moisture, plant-available Ca, Cu, Mn, Mg, Zn, B, clay and total C. The distribution of plant-available Ca, Cu, Mn and Mg appeared to largely be determined by the whole-rock chemical composition differences between amphibolites and hornblende-biotite gneisses. Amphibolites were associated with summit positions, while gneisses dominated lower elevations, an observation that concurs with other studies in the region which suggest that hillslope-scale topography has been shaped by differential weathering of lithologies. Neither NO3−-N nor NH4+-N was explained by the basal area of trees belonging to Fabaceae, a family associated with N-fixing species, and no long-term effects of fire on soil parameters were detected. Local-scale lithological variation is an important first-order control over soil variability at the hillslope scale in this SDTF, by both direct influence on nutrient stocks and indirect influence via control of local relief. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves occur along the coastlines throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, supporting a wide variety of resources and services. In order to understand the responses of future climate change on this ecosystem, we need to know how mangrove species have responded to climate changes in the recent past. This study aims at exploring the climatic influences on the radial growth of Heritiera fomes from a local to global scale. A total of 40 stem discs were collected at breast height position from two different zones with contrasting salinity in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh. All specimens showed distinct tree rings and most of the trees (70%) could be visually and statistically crossdated. Successful crossdating enabled the development of two zone-specific chronologies. The mean radial increment was significantly higher at low salinity (eastern) zone compared to higher salinity (western) zone. The two zone-specific chronologies synchronized significantly, allowing for the construction of a regional chronology. The annual and monsoon precipitation mainly influence the tree growth of H. fomes. The growth response to local precipitation is similar in both zones except June and November in the western zone, while the significant influence is lacking. The large-scale climatic drivers such as sea surface temperature (SST) of equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) revealed no teleconnection with tree growth. The tree rings of this species are thus an indicator for monsoon precipitation variations in Bangladesh. The wider distribution of this species from the South to South East Asian coast presents an outstanding opportunity for developing a large-scale tree-ring network of mangroves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960–2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60–70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly increasing temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance-sensitive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]