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The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The dedication of the international anaesthetic community to reducing the environmental impact of healthcare is important and to be celebrated. When this is underpinned by robust science, it has the potential to make a real difference. However, volatile anaesthetic agents have been widely promoted in the medical literature as damaging to the climate, leading to a drive to remove them from clinical practice. This is based on notional 'CO2‐equivalent' values created using the simple emission metric known as the global warming potential. Here, we assert that when proper consideration is given to the science of climate change, volatile anaesthetic gas emissions cannot be simply equated to real carbon dioxide emissions, and that their climate impact is vanishingly small. This paper gives anaesthetists a framework to make informed choices founded on climate science and calls for attention to be refocused on the urgent need to reduce the real carbon dioxide emissions associated with healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of future precipitation patterns over the Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa, using bias-corrected CMIP6 model projections. A mean increase of about 5% in mean annual (ANN) and seasonal [March–May (MAM), June–August (JJA), and October–December (OND)] precipitation climatology is expected over the domain by mid-century (2040–2069). The changes intensify towards the end of the century (2070–2099) with an increase in mean precipitation of about 16% (ANN), 10% (MAM), and 18% (OND) expected, relative to the 1985–2014 baseline period. Additionally, the mean daily precipitation intensity (SDII), the maximum 5-day precipitation values (RX5Day), and the heavy precipitation events—represented by the width of the right tail distribution of precipitation (99p–90p)—show an increase of 16%, 29%, and 47%, respectively, by the end of the century. The projected changes have a substantial implication for the region—which is already experiencing conflicts over water and water-related resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper draws on Deborah Britzman's conceptualisation of 'difficult knowledge' and Michael Rothberg's figure of 'the implicated subject' to advance a Social Ecology of Responsibility Framework (SERF) in relation to the climate crisis.This framework demonstrates the impossibility of disarticulating individual, private actions that contribute to the ecological crisis from state-corporate climate-related harms. While not discounting differences of scale between individual actions and state-corporate crimes, the article highlights difficulties with binaristic approaches to climate responsibility which privilege either personal actions or macro-level norms, practices and ideologies. Foregrounding self-implication, the model serves as a basis for establishing transnational and transgenerational solidarity with human and other-than-human lifeforms who inhabit the Earth. The paper concludes with some examples of visual images and accompanying activities that can be used to prompt critical reflection on one's own positioning as an implicated subject and as a change agent who can contribute to the amelioration of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important warm-season precipitation systems in eastern China. However, our knowledge of their climatology and capability in their simulation is still insufficient. This paper examines their characteristics over the 2008–2017 warm seasons using convection-permitting climate simulations (CPCSs) with a 3-km grid spacing that explicitly resolves MCSs, as well as a high-resolution gauge-satellite merged precipitation product. An object-based tracking algorithm is applied to identify MCSs. Results indicate that the MCS genesis and occurrence are closely related to the progression of the East Asian monsoon and are modulated by the underlying topography. On average, about 243 MCSs are observed each season and contribute 19% and 47% to total and extreme warm-season precipitation. The climatological attributes and variabilities are reasonably reproduced in the CPCS. The major model deficiencies are excessive small MCS occurrence and overmuch MCS rainfall, consequently overestimating the precipitation contributions, whereas observational uncertainties may play a role too. Both the observed and simulated MCS precipitation feature a nocturnal or morning maximum and an eastward delayed diurnal peak east of the Tibetan Plateau, in contrast to the dominant afternoon peak of non-MCS precipitation. The favorable comparison with observations demonstrates the capability of CPCSs in simulating MCSs in the Asian monsoon climate, and its usefulness in projecting the future changes of MCSs under global warming. The finding that non-MCS precipitation is responsible for the high biased afternoon precipitation provides helpful guidance for further model improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Improving rural household energy efficiency is an important policy issue for climate change mitigation in China. A better understanding of the factors affecting farmers' energy-efficient appliance use behavior can help policymakers design more effective policies. This paper explores the effect of farmers' risk preferences and loss aversion on their energy-efficient appliance use behavior in rural China. Using unique data from a survey and a paired lottery experiment completed by 235 rural household heads in the Dazu District of China, this study finds that the farmers' risk preferences and loss aversion have significant effects on their energy-efficient appliance use behavior. The more risk-averse farmers are less likely to buy or use energy-efficient appliances. The farmers who are more loss averse are more willing to purchase and more likely to use durable energy-efficient appliances. In addition, the farmers' demographic factors (age, gender, education, and family location), their perceptions of climate change adaptation and their trust attitudes have significant effects on their energy-efficient appliance use behavior. This paper contributes to the emerging literature that relates risk preferences and loss aversion in experiments to farmers' energy-efficient appliance use behavior. Highlights • The analysis is based on a unique data set combining a survey and economic experiments. • The average response of our sample is risk averse and loss averse. • The more risk-averse farmers are less likely to use energy-efficient appliances. • The more loss-averse farmers are more willing to use durable energy-efficient appliances. • Farmers' socioeconomic status and trust attitudes affect their use behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A number of empirical methods have been developed to study China's sectoral carbon emissions (CSCE). Measuring these emissions is important for climate change mitigation. While several articles have reviewed specific methods, few attempts conduct a systematic analysis of all the major research methods. In total 807 papers were published on CSCE research between 1997 and 2017. The primary source of literature for this analysis was taken from the Web of Science database. Based on a bibliometric analysis using knowledge mapping with the software CiteSpace, the review identified five common families of methods: 1) environmentally-extended input-output analysis (EE-IOA), 2) index decomposition analysis (IDA), 3) econometrics, 4) carbon emission control efficiency evaluation and 5) simulation. The research revealed the main trends in each family of methods and has visualized this research into ten research clusters. In addition, the paper provides a direct comparison of all methods. The research results can help scholars quickly identify and compare different methods for addressing specific research questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By combining Solar Cycle Lengths (SCL) and CO 2 this paper predicts a global average surface temperature (GAST) anomaly of 1.5K in the year 2100 compared to 0.42K in 1996–2006. This assumes a continuing CO 2 increase of 2 ppm per year and our derived form of Transient Climate Response (TCR), whose value 1.93 ± 0.26 K (K) per CO 2 doubling would be 1.23 times higher if the Sun were ignored. After the CO 2 effect has been subtracted out, the SCL explains a healthy 55% of the remaining variance. It also estimates that 37% of the recent warming from 1980 to 2001 was due to solar effects. We then compare with models created from Scafetta (2010, 2013) (the first of which has the best fit of all) and from radiative forcings estimated by Myhre et al. (2001) and Skeie et al. (2011). The latter confirms the solar contribution to 1980–2001 warming as 33%, in contrast to the negligible value given by Benestad & Schmidt (2009). It also gives a TCR of 1.3K if only CO 2 continues to rise, and 2.0K if CH 4 and NO 2 also rise proportionately. Likewise this model estimates the ratio between the sensitivities of forcings from the Sun and greenhouse gases as 2.9 (versus 1.0 for Benestad & Schmidt (2009)). We develop a negative exponential model for post-forced warming to derive a ratio between Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and TCR, estimated to be 1.15. Two statistical novelties of the paper are the computation of the exact left tail probability of the Durbin-Watson statistic, and the demonstration of an approximate relationship between the Akaike Information Criterion and the tail probability of the F-statistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing from theory on the "co-production" of science and society, this paper provides an account of trajectories in US climatology, roughly from the 1850s to 1920, the period during which climatology emerged as an organized branch of meteorology and government administration. The historical narrative traces the development of climatology both as a professional/institutional project and as a component of a larger governmental logic. Historical analysis of climatologists' scientific texts, maps, and social organization within government provides a sociological explanation for the emergent "stabilization" of climate as a geographic-statistical category. Climatic stability, defined by the view that climate is unchanging, was advanced over this period in a way that linked the interests and practices of climatologists to actors invested in facilitating and administrating commercial agriculture and trade. I position the logic of climatology and the discourse of climatic stability historically, with reference to prior concern with climate change and, in recent decades, efforts to govern global warming through geoengineering climatic stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the potential benefit of limiting the global warming to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level on the high‐latitude climate of the Southern Hemisphere compared to 2.0°C and above. A set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate model experiments is used in order to determine the mean projected changes in surface air temperature, sea level pressure, surface winds and sea ice distribution over and around Antarctica. Alongside, changes in selected variables related to extremes (such as the annual number of extremely cold mornings and extremely cold days) are also quantified as a function of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) considered reaching the given warming threshold. Physical mechanisms for the projected variations in sea ice are proposed, including surface air temperature, changes in low‐level air temperature advection and meridional winds. Results show that there would be significant differences in the atmospheric and sea ice variable changes depending on the warming threshold and RCP considered, and that indeed keeping the global warming under 1.5°C could have a noticeable impact particularly on the distribution of sea ice over the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is myriad evidence that global warming is exerting a profoundly disruptive influence on the lifeways of modern native (Yup'ik) communities living in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) delta of southwestern Alaska. Yup'ik subsistence is intimately tied to seasonal change and the ability to accurately predict the availability of plant and animal resources. It therefore seems reasonable to suggest that periods of climatic instability such as the Little Ice Age (LIA) may have had a deleterious effect on Yup'ik communities in the past. However, at present there are no palaeotemperature records that document the localised climatic changes of the last millennium in the Y-K Delta region. This lack of data hinders our understanding of the archaeological record from the site of Nunalleq, which is situated at the heart of the delta and was occupied during the LIA. To address this oversight, this paper presents the results of a Coleoptera (beetle) based climate reconstruction from a peat profile in the vicinity of Nunalleq to investigate the magnitude of Late Holocene climatic changes. Using the Mutual Climatic Range (MCR) method, we reconstruct mean summer and winter temperatures from the mid-15th to late-19th centuries. The results indicate that the past environments of Nunalleq were characterised by a climate significantly cooler than the present. The earliest definitive evidence for Little Ice Age cooling dates from the late 16th century, when mean summer temperatures were at least 1.2ᵒC below the modern mean. Temperatures appear to have remained lower than modern until the early 19th century. The coolest Nunalleq record – 1.3ᵒC below the modern mean summer temperatures – is centred on AD 1815, after which there is evidence for climatic amelioration. These data present differences with observations from other regions of Alaska and underline the importance of more local palaeoclimate reconstructions, particularly when interrogating the relationships between past climatic and social change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Though a small fraction of the US citizenry, agricultural producers are directly responsible for the stewardship of almost half of the country's land. This group is therefore an especially important one to understand from the standpoint of how they process and respond to science as it relates to agroecological phenomena. Data from a sample (n = 111) of farmers and ranchers located in the US state of Colorado are used to expand our understanding of how food producers process scientific claims. These insights, I argue, help us think through public understandings of science more generally. Using semi-structured interviews, the paper unpacks an identified asymmetry in how respondents perceive climate science and the science associated with genetically modified food and seed. These tensions are interrogated with the help of a novel methodological design that generated data converted to shading matrices—also known as heat maps. The heat maps illuminate certain cultural values among respondents, which were reinforced by motivated reasoning. This allows for an interrogation of tensions and inconsistencies in respondents' remarks about a variety of scientific claims. The heat maps, coupled with the qualitative data, allow for an exploration into how respondents perceive certain salient socio-technical issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel data set of regional climate model simulations over Europe that significantly improves our ability to detect changes in weather extremes under low and moderate levels of global warming. The data set provides a unique and physically consistent data set, as it is derived from a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations. These simulations were driven by two global climate models from the international HAPPI consortium. The set consists of 100 × 10-year simulations and 25 × 10-year simulations, respectively. These large ensembles allow for regional climate change and weather extremes to be investigated with an improved signal-to-noise ratio compared to previous climate simulations. The changes in four climate indices for temperature targets of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming are quantified: number of days per year with daily mean near-surface apparent temperature of > 28 °C (ATG28); the yearly maximum 5-day sum of precipitation (RX5day); the daily precipitation intensity of the 50-yr return period (RI50yr); and the annual Consecutive Dry Days (CDD). This work shows that even for a small signal in projected global mean temperature, changes of extreme temperature and precipitation indices can be robustly estimated. For temperature related indices changes in percentiles can also be estimated with high confidence. Such data can form the basis for tailor-made climate information that can aid adaptive measures at a policy-relevant scales, indicating potential impacts at low levels of global warming at steps of 0.5 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The public education system can play a pivotal role in creating an electorate that is well informed of the consensus around climate change and its anthropogenic causes. In particular, more states have education standards that specifically address climate change today than ever before. However, previous research raises concerns about the discretion teachers have in if and how particular types of content are presented. The effectiveness of new state standards and the extent to which such state-level standards are coopted by teacher discretion has received minimal attention. Therefore, using a nationally representative sample of 1500 middle school and high school science teachers, this research examines the effectiveness of such state-level standards and the extent to which teacher ideology and knowledge mediate the relationship between standards and actual use of a consensus-informed approach to teaching climate science. Results show that teachers in states with any type of standards around climate change spend significantly more time on the topic in the classroom. However, teachers in states that have standards that require teachers to present "both sides" of climate change are significantly less likely to use a consensus-informed approach. While teacher characteristics (knowledge and ideology) can weaken their effect, standards continue to be important predictors of the time spent on climate change in the classroom and how content is presented. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of climate science standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global warming potential (GWP) is widely used in policy analysis, national greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting, and technology life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the impact of non-CO2 GHG emissions to the impact of CO2 emissions. While the GWP is simple and versatile, different views about the appropriate choice of time horizon—and the factors that affect that choice—can impede decision-making. If the GWP is viewed as an approximation to a climate metric that more directly measures economic impact—the global damage potential (GDP)—then the time horizon may be viewed as a proxy for the discount rate. However, the validity of this equivalence rests on the theoretical basis used to equate the two metrics. In this paper, we develop a new theoretical basis for relating the GWP time horizon and the economic discount rate that avoids the most restrictive assumptions of prior studies, such as an assumed linear relationship between economic damages and temperature. We validate this approach with an extensive set of numerical experiments using an up-to-date climate emulator that represents state-dependent climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The numerical results largely confirm the theoretical finding that, under certain reasonable assumptions, time horizons in the GWP of 100 years and 20 years are most consistent with discount rates of approximately 3% and 7% (or greater), respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four associations filed l'affaire du siècle, a climate legal action against the French State before the Administrative Court of Paris in May 2019. This lawsuit questions the State's actions and inactions in matters of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Even though the complaint is mainly based on legal constructions and theories that are well-known to French Courts, this paper focuses on three ground-breaking legal innovations brought by the plaintiffs: a pre-existing general State obligation to combat climate change, a pre-existing right to live in a sustainable climate system, and, eventually, the remediation of the pure ecological damage (préjudice écologique) linked to climate change through a formal demand for monetary compensation of one symbolic euro and an injunctive relief to take all measures to limit global warming under the 1.5 °C threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate classifications based on temperature and precipitation measurements are increasingly being used for environmental and climate change studies. Using three classification methods (Köppen, Extended Köppen, and Holdridge) and one observational dataset for present climate (CRU, Climate Research Unit), we show that GCMs have bridged the gap that led to the emergence of RCMs thirty years ago, as GCMs can now provide global climate classifications whose accuracy and precision are comparable to those of regional outputs of the RCMs. Projections of high-resolution GCMs for future climates under the assumptions of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85) can therefore be used as a primary source for climate change and global warming studies at high resolution. This paper provides comprehensive, model-derived climate classifications for the entire planet, using RCMs and two GCMs for present and future climate-change scenarios, and discusses how well the models actually represent the climates of the world when compared with reference, ground validation data. It turns out that both GCMs and RCMs appear still limited to provide practical estimates of the world climates even for present climate conditions. The modeling of precipitation remains the Achilles' heel of models and thus of multidimensional indices, which are very sensitive to this variable. The conclusion is that model outputs at regional scale need to be taken with extreme caution without venturing into informing policies presenting potentially large societal impacts. Nonetheless, the role of models as privileged tools to advance our scientific knowledge of the Earth's system remains undisputed. • A systematic analysis of climate classifications with RCMs and two high resolution GCMs is presented. • Three classification methods are used to illustrate the differences between models and observations. • Current high-resolution GCMs can provide climate classifications with the same accuracy as those from RCMs. • Uncertainties in modeling precipitation persist for large parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we analyse the evolution in time of extreme temperatures significant for Romania with a focus on absolute extreme temperatures recorded on the overall present territory. After thoroughly investigating the credible sources referenced at the end of the paper, we present in chronological order the records for absolute minimum temperatures, and absolute maximum temperatures which were measured at the meteorological stations on the present territory of Romania, according to the availability of the data, i.e. the last two decades of the 19th century up until 2017. We classify and discuss the sources of climatological data in the form of minimum and maximum temperatures. The measurements of meteorological parameters on the current national territory were recorded since 1770 at Iași (cf. Dissescu 1931 and also http://www.meteoromania.ro/anm2/despre-noi/istoric/ - page in Romanian as of 30.03.2017). For a systematic approach with credible data, at least another century passed, until Ștefan Hepites (1851-1922) founded in 1884 in Bucharest the Central Meteorological Institute of Romania (I.M.C. in Romanian) (Dissescu, 1931 and cf. the ANM web page quoted earlier). The newly created Institute did not include the meteorological stations which were present at that time in Transylvania, but only the ones on the official Romanian territory of 1859-1918 made up of Moldavia and Wallachia. This paper argues in favour of the process of global warming (GW) and its effects upon the evolution of extreme temperature values in a certain time interval. The conclusions stemming from the investigation of the dataset in this paper should provide a helpful and necessary point of departure in subsequent research of climatologists in their quest of identifying the correct model of future climate. Our article should be regarded as part of a series of analyses of the variability of the climate in Romania, the recent influence of global warming on it and on certain climatological parameters in particular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among papers stating a position on anthropogenic global warming (AGW), 97 % endorse AGW. What is happening with the 2 % of papers that reject AGW? We examine a selection of papers rejecting AGW. An analytical tool has been developed to replicate and test the results and methods used in these studies; our replication reveals a number of methodological flaws, and a pattern of common mistakes emerges that is not visible when looking at single isolated cases. Thus, real-life scientific disputes in some cases can be resolved, and we can learn from mistakes. A common denominator seems to be missing contextual information or ignoring information that does not fit the conclusions, be it other relevant work or related geophysical data. In many cases, shortcomings are due to insufficient model evaluation, leading to results that are not universally valid but rather are an artifact of a particular experimental setup. Other typical weaknesses include false dichotomies, inappropriate statistical methods, or basing conclusions on misconceived or incomplete physics. We also argue that science is never settled and that both mainstream and contrarian papers must be subject to sustained scrutiny. The merit of replication is highlighted and we discuss how the quality of the scientific literature may benefit from replication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper deals with the investigation of long-term variability of atmospheric dust over the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The climatology of dust episodes (dust events, dust storms, and severe dust storms) is compiled based on the hourly observations and synoptic codes recorded at four different stations over UAE between the years 1983–2014. The diurnal, temporal, monthly, and inter-annual variations of dust episodes and their relation with the mean wind speed, maximum wind speed, and temperature are discussed. Dust episodes show a clear diurnal variation in all the stations. The duration of dust storms is large compared to dust events. For instance, dust events over the UAE persist for 2–5 h while dust storms last for about 5–11 h. Dust storms also show clear seasonal variability with the maximum occurring during winter and the minimum during summer whereas most of the dust events occur during the months of March and April. The inter-annual variation of dust events shows a significant decrease while dust storms depict a moderate increase over the UAE. The synoptic scale climatology of all dust storms is also analyzed and shows changes in wind direction to the south-west prior to 2 days of the dust storm generation. The climatology of wind direction and wind speed during the dust episode indicates that 90% of dust episodes are coming from the southwest direction. These observed results are discussed in light of the current global warming scenarios with a special emphasis on the role of dust episodes on the regional enhancement of temperature. Highlights • The dust episodes show a clear diurnal variation over the UAE. • The dust events (dust storms) over the UAE persist for 6–14 (2–5) hours. • 99% of dust episodes are coming from southwest direction. • Dust storms shows an increasing trend over the UAE. • Maximum number of dust storms occurs during the winter than summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Third Pole (TP) is experiencing rapid warming and is currently in its warmest period in the past 2,000 years. This paper reviews the latest development in multidisciplinary TP research associated with this warming. The rapid warming facilitates intense and broad glacier melt over most of the TP, although some glaciers in the northwest are advancing. By heating the atmosphere and reducing snow/ice albedo, aerosols also contribute to the glaciers melting. Glacier melt is accompanied by lake expansion and intensification of the water cycle over the TP. Precipitation has increased over the eastern and northwestern TP. Meanwhile, the TP is greening and most regions are experiencing advancing phenological trends, although over the southwest there is a spring phenological delay mainly in response to the recent decline in spring precipitation. Atmospheric and terrestrial thermal and dynamical processes over the TP affect the Asian monsoon at different scales. Recent evidence indicates substantial roles that mesoscale convective systems play in the TP's precipitation as well as an association between soil moisture anomalies in the TP and the Indian monsoon. Moreover, an increase in geohazard events has been associated with recent environmental changes, some of which have had catastrophic consequences caused by glacial lake outbursts and landslides. Active debris flows are growing in both frequency of occurrences and spatial scale. Meanwhile, new types of disasters, such as the twin ice avalanches in Ali in 2016, are now appearing in the region. Adaptation and mitigation measures should be taken to help societies' preparation for future environmental challenges. Some key issues for future TP studies are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Climate classifications of climate models' outputs have been used to assess environmental changes but systematic analyses of the differences between models, scenarios and classification methods are scarce. Here, the results of applying the most commonly used climate classifications to the outputs of 47 Global Climate Models (GCM) of different physical parameterizations and varied grid size are presented. The extent and intensity of changes for present climate, three different Representative Pathways Scenarios (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85) and three increasingly-fine classification methods show that there is a consensus between models, and that climate classifications are indeed useful tools to translate physical climatology variables into environmental changes. The main conclusions are that climate classifications can indeed be used to gauge model performance at several grid sizes and that the classification method does not decisively affects the potential global changes in future climates under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The analyses also reveal that there are several uncertainties that are not attributable to model grid size or to limitations in the reference datasets but more likely to deficiencies in the physics of the models. Highlights • This paper provides a systematic analysis of climate classifications for present and future climates. • Several classifications methods are used to illustrate the consensus between models and observations. • Overall, global models show consistent changes but uncertainties persist with large differences in individual model skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The possibility of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) engaging in climate change is not new to academic discourse. Since at least 1992 the UNSC has been examined as a means by which to provide renewed impetus to the climate change response agenda. Despite this, there has been very little progress in terms of UNSC engagement. One reason for this, according to Conca et al, is that when states and other interested parties argue for climate change intervention they do so with a lack of clarity as to what form it should take and what benefits might follow. This paper intends to address this particular aspect of the debate and propose reasons as to why the UNSC should engage, how it could engage, and what benefit it could bring to the climate change regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate regime shift during the 1980s had a substantial impact on the terrestrial ecosystems and vegetation at different scales. However, the mechanisms driving vegetation changes, before and after the shift, remain unclear. In this study, we used a biophysical dynamic vegetation model to estimate large-scale trends in terms of carbon fixation, vegetation growth, and expansion during the period 1958–2007, and to attribute these changes to environmental drivers including elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (hereafter eCO2), global warming, and climate variability (hereafter CV). Simulated leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary production (GPP) were evaluated against observation-based data. Significant spatial correlations are found (correlations > 0.87), along with regionally varying temporal correlations of 0.34–0.80 for LAI and 0.45–0.83 for GPP. More than 40 % of the global land area shows significant positive (increase) or negative (decrease) trends in LAI and GPP during 1958–2007. Regions over the globe show different characteristics in terms of ecosystem trends before and after the 1980s. While 11.7 % and 19.3 % of land have had consistently positive LAI and GPP trends, respectively, since 1958, 17.1 % and 20.1 % of land saw LAI and GPP trends, respectively, reverse during the 1980s. Vegetation fraction cover (FRAC) trends, representing vegetation expansion and/or shrinking, are found at the edges of semi-arid areas and polar areas. Environmental drivers affect the change in ecosystem trend over different regions. Overall, eCO2 consistently contributes to positive LAI and GPP trends in the tropics. Global warming mostly affects LAI, with positive effects in high latitudes and negative effects in subtropical semi-arid areas. CV is found to dominate the variability of FRAC, LAI, and GPP in the semi-humid and semi-arid areas. The eCO2 and global warming effects increased after the 1980s, while the CV effect reversed during the 1980s. In addition, plant competition is shown to have played an important role in determining which driver dominated the regional trends. This paper presents new insight into ecosystem variability and changes in the varying climate since the 1950s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global warming intensifies, efforts to understand the changes in extreme climate events have increased in recent years. A combined analysis of the changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events is presented in this paper. Using observational data from 1961 to 2015, a set of hotter and wetter (HW) events is defined, and we examine the changes in these events across China. The results show that more HW events occur in Central and Eastern China than in other subregions, especially in South China (SC). The rate of increase in HW events is 2.7 and 1.9 per decade in SC and East China (EC), respectively. In China, most HW events occurred in the last 20 years of the study period, indicating that China entered a period of high-frequency HW events. Indeed, the range in anomalies in the torrential rain days is greater than that of the high-temperature days in Northwest China (NWC), Central China (CC), and EC after the mid- to late 1990s. The opposite pattern is found in Northeast China (NEC), Southwest China-region 1 (SWC1), Southwest China-region 2 (SWC2), and SC. Finally, the increase in HW events in most regions of China is closely associated with warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Most estimates of Chinese regional Surface Air Temperatures since the late-19th century have identified two relatively warm periods – 1920s–40s and 1990s–present. However, there is considerable debate over how the two periods compare to each other. Some argue the current warm period is much warmer than the earlier warm period. Others argue the earlier warm period was comparable to the present. In this collaborative paper, including authors from both camps, the reasons for this ongoing debate are discussed. Several different estimates of Chinese temperature trends, both new and previously published, are considered. A study of the effects of urbanization bias on Chinese temperature trends was carried out using the new updated version of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) – version 4 (currently in beta production). It is shown that there are relatively few rural stations with long records, but urbanization bias artificially makes the early warm period seem colder and the recent warm period seem warmer. However, current homogenization approaches (which attempt to reduce non-climatic biases) also tend to have similar effects, making it unclear whether reducing or increasing the relative warmth of each period is most appropriate. A sample of 17 Chinese temperature proxy series (12 regional and 5 national) is compared and contrasted specifically for the period since the 19th century. Most proxy series imply a warm early-20th century period and a warm recent period, but the relative warmth of these two periods differs between proxies. Also, with some proxies, one or other of the warm periods is absent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This bibliometric study of a large publication set dealing with research on climate change aims at mapping the relevant literature from a bibliometric perspective and presents a multitude of quantitative data: (1) The growth of the overall publication output as well as (2) of some major subfields, (3) the contributing journals and countries as well as their citation impact, and (4) a title word analysis aiming to illustrate the time evolution and relative importance of specific research topics. The study is based on 222,060 papers (articles and reviews only) published between 1980 and 2014. The total number of papers shows a strong increase with a doubling every 5–6 years. Continental biomass related research is the major subfield, closely followed by climate modeling. Research dealing with adaptation, mitigation, risks, and vulnerability of global warming is comparatively small, but their share of papers increased exponentially since 2005. Research on vulnerability and on adaptation published the largest proportion of very important papers (in terms of citation impact). Climate change research has become an issue also for disciplines beyond the natural sciences. The categories Engineering and Social Sciences show the strongest field-specific relative increase. The Journal of Geophysical Research, the Journal of Climate, the Geophysical Research Letters, and Climatic Change appear at the top positions in terms of the total number of papers published. Research on climate change is quantitatively dominated by the USA, followed by the UK, Germany, and Canada. The citation-based indicators exhibit consistently that the UK has produced the largest proportion of high impact papers compared to the other countries (having published more than 10,000 papers). Also, Switzerland, Denmark and also The Netherlands (with a publication output between around 3,000 and 6,000 papers) perform top—the impact of their contributions is on a high level. The title word analysis shows that the term climate change comes forward with time. Furthermore, the term impact arises and points to research dealing with the various effects of climate change. The discussion of the question of human induced climate change towards a clear fact (for the majority of the scientific community) stimulated research on future pathways for adaptation and mitigation. Finally, the term model and related terms prominently appear independent of time, indicating the high relevance of climate modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the responses of faith-based movements in Indonesia to globalized environmental issues, including climate change. As a plural nation with six official religions, the leaders of the major recognized religions in Indonesia (i.e., Islam, Protestant and Roman Catholic Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism and Confusianism) all offered statements in 2007 at COP 13, the international forum in response to the environmental challange and climate change in Bali. Each called for religious adherents to act in order to contribute to halting the problem of climate change. Faith is seen to be a key factor in motivating people to change their behavior towards the environment. The slogan, "Think globally, act locally,'' is at the heart of this commitment, in hopes that environmental challenges including climate change, become a common issue among all the religions in Indonesia, and so that Indonesian responses may be collaborative and cooperative. This paper will document and analyze the development of such faithbased action with respect to environmental challenges in Indonesia, in light of global conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to investigate the long-range correlation of monthly mean temperatures from three typical measurement stations at Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang in Northeast China from 1909 to 2014. The results reveal the memory characteristics of the climate system in this region. By comparing the temperatures from different time periods and investigating the variations of its scaling exponents at the three stations during these different time periods, we found that the monthly mean temperature has long-range correlation, which indicates that the temperature in Northeast China has long-term memory and good predictability. The monthly time series of temperatures over the past 106 years also shows good long-range correlation characteristics. These characteristics are also obviously observed in the annual mean temperature time series. Finally, we separated the centennial-length temperature time series into two time periods. These results reveal that the long-range correlations at the Harbin station over these two time periods have large variations, whereas no obvious variations are observed at the other two stations. This indicates that warming affects the regional climate system’s predictability differently at different time periods. The research results can provide a quantitative reference point for regional climate predictability assessment and future climate model evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate feedback mechanisms that have the potential to intensify global warming have been omitted almost completely in the integrated assessment of climate change and the economy so far. In the present paper, we incorporate the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) into the well-known integrated assessment model DICE-2013R. We calibrate the parameters for our extended version of DICE-2013R and compute the optimal emission mitigation rates that maximize welfare. Our results indicate that accounting for the PCF leads to an increase in mitigation. Finally, we quantify the economic losses resulting from a climate policy which ignores the impacts of the PCF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A deeper understanding of how clouds will respond to a warming climate is one of the outstanding challenges in climate science. Uncertainties in the response of clouds, and particularly shallow clouds, have been identified as the dominant source of the discrepancy in model estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. As the community gains a deeper understanding of the many processes involved, there is a growing appreciation of the critical role played by fluctuations in water vapor and the coupling of water vapor and atmospheric circulations. Reduction of uncertainties in cloud-climate feedbacks and convection initiation as well as improved understanding of processes governing these effects will result from profiling of water vapor in the lower troposphere with improved accuracy and vertical resolution compared to existing airborne and space-based measurements. This paper highlights new technologies and improved measurement approaches for measuring lower tropospheric water vapor and their expected added value to current observations. Those include differential absorption lidar and radar, microwave occultation between low-Earth orbiters, and hyperspectral microwave remote sensing. Each methodology is briefly explained, and measurement capabilities as well as the current technological readiness for aircraft and satellite implementation are specified. Potential synergies between the technologies are discussed, actual examples hereof are given, and future perspectives are explored. Based on technical maturity and the foreseen near-mid-term development path of the various discussed measurement approaches, we find that improved measurements of water vapor throughout the troposphere would greatly benefit from the combination of differential absorption lidar focusing on the lower troposphere with passive remote sensors constraining the upper-tropospheric humidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The snow cover extent in mid-high latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere has significantly declined corresponding to the global warming, especially since the 1970s. Snow-climate feedbacks play a critical role in regulating the global radiation balance and influencing surface heat flux exchange. However, the degree to which snow cover changes affect the radiation budget and energy balance on a regional scale and the difference between snow-climate and land use/cover change (LUCC)-climate feedbacks have been rarely studied. In this paper, we selected Heilongjiang Basin, where the snow cover has changed obviously, as our study area and used the WRF model to simulate the influences of snow cover changes on the surface radiation budget and heat balance. In the scenario simulation, the localized surface parameter data improved the accuracy by 10 % compared with the control group. The spatial and temporal analysis of the surface variables showed that the net surface radiation, sensible heat flux, Bowen ratio, temperature and percentage of snow cover were negatively correlated and that the ground heat flux and latent heat flux were positively correlated with the percentage of snow cover. The spatial analysis also showed that a significant relationship existed between the surface variables and land cover types, which was not obviously as that for snow cover changes. Finally, six typical study areas were selected to quantitatively analyse the influence of land cover types beneath the snow cover on heat absorption and transfer, which showed that when the land was snow covered, the conversion of forest to farmland can dramatically influence the net radiation and other surface variables, whereas the snow-free land showed significantly reduced influence. Furthermore, compared with typical land cover changes, e.g., the conversion of forest into farmland, the influence of snow cover changes on net radiation and sensible heat flux were 60 % higher than that of land cover changes, indicating the importance of snow cover changes in the surface-atmospheric feedback system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the energy performance of a direct expansion solar assisted heat pump has been experimentally assessed with R290 as an alternative to R22 to meet the requirements of Kigali agreement. The experiments have been performed at Calicut climatic conditions (latitude of 11.15° N, longitude of 75.49° E) during the winter climates of 2016. The performance parameters such as, compressor power consumption, condenser heating capacity, energy performance ratio, and solar energy input ratio were evaluated for energy performance comparison. The results showed that, R290 has 6.8% higher energy performance ratio when compared to R22, with 11% reduction in compressor power consumption. Moreover, R290 has negligible global warming impact and zero ozone depletion potential when compared to R22. The effect of wind speed, collector area, ambient temperature, and solar insolation on the system performance found to be with an average value of 0.85%, 12%, 2.5%, and 4.5% for the selected refrigerants, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigation and adaptation represent two solutions to the issue of global warming. While mitigation aims at reducing $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ emissions and preventing climate change, adaptation encompasses a broad scope of techniques used to reduce the impacts of climate change once they have occurred. Both have direct costs on a country's gross domestic product, but costs also arise from temperature increases due to inaction. This paper introduces a tipping point in a real options model and analyzes optimal investment choices in mitigation and their timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food production is one of the main contributors to climate change, but is also vulnerable to the resulting stressors, which is well documented for agriculture and fisheries. Attention is now turning to the rapidly growing aquaculture sector and its vulnerability to a changing climate. Here we explore the extent to which climate stressors and aquaculture, and concomitant adaptation strategies, are studied in science and addressed in public media (news) to assess focus and attribution of climate change. We reviewed 553 scientific publications and 228 news media articles on climate stressors, impacts, and adaptation approaches with respect to aquaculture. Results indicate that coverage in the scientific community of climate stressors on aquaculture have not kept pace with growth of production in the sector, especially compared to agriculture and fisheries. Temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification were most often the focus in science (44%) and news (42%), suggesting some alignment. Combined coverage tended to revolve around Asia, Europe, and North/Central America (70%) and at least 10 countries' science and news linked current impacts on aquaculture to climate change. The majority of scientific articles addressing adaptation were regional rather than global, and emphasized governance and institutional strategies over technological solutions. In all, this research highlights the comparatively nascent focus of climate change implications for aquaculture, narrow emphasis of stressors, but fairly representative coverage of regions with more aquaculture. Our work highlights the need for more research and public awareness of the social and ecological climate change threats and impacts on, and adaptive strategies for aquaculture. • Temp & sea level rise threats to aquaculture were the main focus in science & news. • Focus on Asia, Europe, & N./C. America accounted for 70% of studies. • At least 10 countries linked current impacts on aquaculture to climate change. • Global papers cited technology for adaption, while regional papers cited governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article builds on the premise that human consumption of goods, food and transport are the ultimate drivers of climate change. However, the nature of the climate change problem (well described as a tragedy of the commons) makes it difficult for individuals to recognise their personal duty to implement behavioural changes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, this article aims to analyse the climate change issue from a human-scale perspective, in which each of us has a clearly defined personal quota of CO2 emissions that limits our activity and there is a finite time during which CO2 emissions must be eliminated to achieve the “well below 2°C” warming limit set by the Paris Agreement of 2015 (COP21). Thus, this work’s primary contribution is to connect an equal per capita fairness approach to a global carbon budget, linking personal levels with planetary levels. Here, we show that a personal quota of 5.0 tons of CO2 yr-1 p-1 is a representative value for both past and future emissions; for this level of a constant per-capita emissions and without considering any mitigation, the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2030 and 2050, respectively. These are references years that provide an order of magnitude of the time that is left to reverse the global warming trend. More realistic scenarios that consider a smooth transition toward a zero-emission world show that the global accumulated emissions compatible with the “well below 2°C” and 2°C targets will be exhausted by 2040 and 2080, respectively. Implications of this paper include a return to personal responsibility following equity principles among individuals, and a definition of boundaries to the personal emissions of CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates changes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) in response to carbon dioxide increase and surface warming separately in an atmospheric general circulation model, finding that both effects lead to a warmer tropical tropopause. Surface warming also results in an upward shift of the tropopause. A detailed heat budget analysis is performed to quantify the contributions from different radiative and dynamic processes to changes in the TTL temperature. When carbon dioxide increases with fixed surface temperature, a warmer TTL mainly results from the direct radiative effect of carbon dioxide increase. With surface warming, the largest contribution to the TTL warming comes from the radiative effect of the warmer troposphere, which is partly canceled by the radiative effect of the moistening at the TTL. Strengthening of the stratospheric circulation following surface warming cools the lower stratosphere dynamically and radiatively via changes in ozone. These two effects are of comparable magnitudes. This circulation change is the main cause of temperature changes near 63 hPa but is weak near 100 hPa. Contributions from changes in convection and clouds are also quantified. These results illustrate the heat budget analysis as a useful tool to disentangle the radiative-dynamical-chemical-convective coupling at the TTL and to facilitate an understanding of intermodel difference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life cycle assessment and life cycle cost analysis are suitable tools in trying to minimize environmental impact and cost. To get reliable results it is crucial to set up correct system boundaries for the investigation, but it is often difficult to understand a complex products system because of the cascade effects of consequences that can be induced even by small changes. In this paper the effects and consequences evaluation (ECE) method is introduced to systematically identify and organize the effects and consequences for a design change of parts of a complex system. The method is applied in a case study of external wall insulation for a new building to investigate the importance of correct system boundaries. Using the methodical approach in identifying all significant consequences showed that unexpected unit processes can be important when deciding on the relevant system boundary. We also conclude that such processes can have a significant impact on the final results by calculating the change in global warming potential and life cycle cost for the processes affected by the design option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concrete became the most used material on Earth over 200 years following the invention of modern cement. The design concept has undergone a transition from the allowable stress design method, limit state design method, and to the performance-based design method, in response to the evolution of materials, sophistication of experimental facilities, and advancement of computation skills. From the issues on resources and energy depletion, global warming, and resilience etc., it is necessary to create a new design framework taking into consideration the required performance beyond the conventional concept, in order to construct infrastructure and buildings in a more rational way. In other words, one should construct a design system which sets the continued existence of the diverse and rich global environment as its most important criterion of value. In this paper, the authors review the design and technology system developed in the past and discusses it based on the above-mentioned new viewpoint, while constructing and presenting a new design system for concrete structures, focusing mainly on the concept of sustainability which is regarded as the most important in achieving conservation of the Earth's rich resources as well as sound socioeconomic activities of humankind in the future, and discusses its feasibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the Global Warming Potential (GWP) was first presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) First Assessment Report, the metric has been scrutinized and alternative metrics have been suggested. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report gives a scientific assessment of the main recent findings from climate metrics research and provides the most up-to-date values for a subset of metrics and time horizons. The objectives of this paper are to perform a systematic review of available midpoint metrics (i.e. using an indicator situated in the middle of the cause-effect chain from emissions to climate change) for well-mixed greenhouse gases and near-term climate forcers based on the current literature, to provide recommendations for the development and use of characterization factors for climate change in life cycle assessment (LCA), and to identify research needs. This work is part of the ‘Global Guidance on Environmental Life Cycle Impact Assessment’ project held by the UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative and is intended to support a consensus finding workshop. In an LCA context, it can make sense to use several complementary metrics that serve different purposes, and from there get an understanding about the robustness of the LCA study to different perspectives and metrics. We propose a step-by-step approach to test the sensitivity of LCA results to different modelling choices and provide recommendations for specific issues such as the consideration of climate-carbon feedbacks and the inclusion of pollutants with cooling effects (negative metric values). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A companion paper demonstrated that it is more difficult to forecast major stratospheric sudden warmings ( MSSWs) of the vortex split type on medium range time scales of about 2 weeks than other MSSWs. As its extension, this study further investigates more specific features of planetary waves for the greater difficulty through a composite analysis using the Japanese 55-year reanalysis data and the Japan Meteorological Agency 1-month hindcast data. Results show that the hindcast data of about two week lead times to the MSSWs largely underestimate the vortex stretching and split at 10 hPa, and the forcing and propagation of planetary wave of zonal wavenumber 2 to the stratosphere. The underestimation in the wave forcing largely reflects a deficiency in simulating a nonlinear, or quadratic, term in wave anomalies (meridional wind and temperature) from the climatology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geoengineering is defined as the 'deliberate and large-scale intervention in the Earth's climatic system with the aim of reducing global warming'. The technological proposals for doing this are highly speculative. Research is at an early stage, but there is a strong consensus that technologies would, if realisable, have profound and surprising ramifications. Geoengineering would seem to be an archetype of technology as social experiment, blurring lines that separate research from deployment and scientific knowledge from technological artefacts. Looking into the experimental systems of geoengineering, we can see the negotiation of what is known and unknown. The paper argues that, in renegotiating such systems, we can approach a new mode of governance-collective experimentation. This has important ramifications not just for how we imagine future geoengineering technologies, but also for how we govern geoengineering experiments currently under discussion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper studies how the anthropogenic-induced global warming affects the East Asian winter monsoon ( EAWM) by using 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 ( CMIP5) models. The simulated present-day EAWM is evaluated and future projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are presented in terms of the climatology and interannual variability. All 26 models can well reproduce the spatial pattern of EAWM climatology and 16 out of the 26 models can reasonably capture major features of interannual variability. The projection made by 26-model ensemble mean indicate that winter surface air temperature averaged over 20°-60°N, 100°-140°E will increase by 3 °C in RCP4.5 and 5.5 °C in RCP8.5 towards the end of the 21st century. The corresponding regional mean precipitation will increase by 12.3% in RCP4.5 and 21.8% in RCP8.5. The strong warming over high-latitude North Pacific due to melting sea ice in the Bering Sea and Okhotsk Sea leads to significant intensification and a northward shift of the Aleutian Low, resulting in prominent increase in the low-level northerly along the coastal regions of northeastern Asia. At 500 hPa the characteristic East Asian Trough is projected to weaken slightly and tilt more eastward with latitude. The selected 16-model ensemble mean projects future enhanced interannual variability of surface air temperature and sea-level pressure over mid-latitude North Pacific and high-latitude East Asia ( EA) and reduced variability over eastern China, suggesting that the EAWM will be more variable in the high-latitude EA and mid-latitude North Pacific but less variable in East China. Accordingly, the year-to-year precipitation variability will be significantly enhanced over high-latitude EA. Majority of the 26 models project that the leading mode of EAWM interannual variation (the 'northern mode') will become more dominant in the warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global warming and climate change problems have become more serious because of the high consumption of fossil fuels during the past century. Recently, biofuels have attracted interest as an option to reduce the extensive use of fossil fuels; particularly, biobutanol appears as an option to replace the petroleum-based fuels. However, the separation process to produce biobutanol requires a lot of energy and yields lots of waste heat at low temperature. Therefore, there is a need to propose options to reduce the required energy in the biobutanol separation process. Consequently, this paper presents an optimization approach for designing energy integrated biobutanol separation processes. The optimization incorporates attractive separation options such as ABE fermentation using different solvents as well as incorporating several options for waste heat recovery involving integrated heat exchanger networks, stream Rankine cycles, organic Rankine cycles, and absorption refrigeration cycles. The results show significant economic and environmental benefits for the simultaneous consideration of the optimization of the separation process with the waste heat recovery for the biobutanol separation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather conditions and climate influence human activities and their health, from changing the occurrence of respiratory diseases up till even changing birth rate and mortality. Weather extremes have fast and strong social and economic consequences. Therefore, people must learn to manage them, in order to diminish their impact and the vulnerability to them. Nowadays, climate change and global warming are widely-circulated issues in the world and extreme weather events are considered to be strongly related to them. Still, when considering these issues, one also has to take into account the internal variability of the terrestrial environment, as well as the variability of any system with dynamic components. This paper analyses records of worldwide extreme weather events as they are observed in various atmospheric parameters (temperature, pressure, rainfall, hail, aridity, wind, tornadoes and cyclones), as identified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The study is conducted in terms of the spatial and temporal occurrence of such phenomena. Their causes, their impact and their relationship with climate change are also addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China, which produces the largest percentage of global emissions, is an important player in global climate change governance and has the potential to change the global climate outlook. In the past decade, China has made significant progress in getting climate change on the national agenda and becoming a leader in setting greenhouse gas emissions targets. However, there are many challenges impeding the implementation of China's climate policies, including a lack of urgency and political will and low public awareness of climate change. Air pollution, on the other hand, due in part to public concern about adverse health effects and quality of life, has become an increasingly greater priority for the Chinese government. This paper aims to examine air pollution as a driver of climate governance and the potential synergy between China's climate policies and air pollution governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to study the model's simulated frequency, track, intensity and location of cyclonic storms (CSs) and severe cyclonic storms (SCSs) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), India. For the purpose, the PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) a regional climate modelling system, of UK Met Office, is used. This model is integrated for the period 1961-1990 (baseline) and the future time period 2071-2100 (High emission scenario, A2). To run the model, the initial and lateral boundary conditions are supplied by UK Met Office. The analysis of frequency, track, intensity and location are carried out for May, June, September and October for the period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. To evaluate the model's performance in simulating storms frequency during 1961-1990, chi square test is carried out with observed storms for the same period. The model's simulated frequency of storms is an overestimation of observations although the frequency of model's simulated storms during 2071-2100 is less than that of during 1961-1990. In general, model's simulated storms are found moving in the northwest direction from their initial location in all months during 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. In model's simulations, the drop in central pressure is relatively more in the months of May, June, September and October during 2071-2100 compared with that during 1961-1990. During 2071-2100, more intense storms may be possible in the months of May and June compared with that of September and October. It is observed that the model is able to simulate the initial locations of storms during 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 close to observations for the months of June and September, especially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the oceanic and atmospheric variability over the Intra-American Seas (IAS) from a 32-year integration of a 15-km coupled regional climate model consisting of the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) for the atmosphere and the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the ocean. It is forced at the lateral boundaries by National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE R-2) atmospheric global reanalysis and Simplified Ocean Data Assimilation global oceanic reanalysis. This coupled downscaling integration is a free run without any heat flux correction and is referred as the Regional Ocean-Atmosphere coupled downscaling of global Reanalysis over the Intra-American Seas (ROARS). The paper examines the fidelity of ROARS with respect to independent observations that are both satellite based and in situ. In order to provide a perspective on the fidelity of the ROARS simulation, we also compare it with the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), a modern global ocean-atmosphere reanalysis product. Our analysis reveals that ROARS exhibits reasonable climatology and interannual variability over the IAS region, with climatological SST errors less than 1 °C except along the coastlines. The anomaly correlation of the monthly SST and precipitation anomalies in ROARS are well over 0.5 over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, Western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans. A highlight of the ROARS simulation is its resolution of the loop current and the episodic eddy events off of it. This is rather poorly simulated in the CFSR. This is also reflected in the simulated, albeit, higher variance of the sea surface height in ROARS and the lack of any variability in the sea surface height of the CFSR over the IAS. However the anomaly correlations of the monthly heat content anomalies of ROARS are comparatively lower, especially over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. This is a result of ROARS exhibiting a bias of underestimation (overestimation) of high (low) clouds. ROARS like CFSR is also able to capture the Caribbean Low Level Jet and its seasonal variability reasonably well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-sea surface air temperature (SAT) contrast, an index of tropospheric thermodynamic structure and dynamical circulation, has shown a significant increase in recent decades over East Asia during the boreal summer. In Part I of this two-part paper, observational data and the results of transient warming experiments conducted using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed to examine changes in land-sea thermal contrast and the associated atmospheric circulation over East Asia from the past to the future. The interannual variability of the land-sea SAT contrast over the Far East for 1950-2012 was found to be tightly coupled with a characteristic tripolar pattern of tropospheric circulation over East Asia, which manifests as anticyclonic anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and around the Philippines, and a cyclonic anomaly over Japan during a positive phase, and vice versa. In response to CO increase, the cold northeasterly winds off the east coast of northern Japan and the East Asian rainband were strengthened with the circulation pattern well projected on the observed interannual variability. These results are commonly found in GCMs regardless of future forcing scenarios, indicating the robustness of the East Asian climate response to global warming. The physical mechanisms responsible for the increase of the land-sea contrast are examined in Part II. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind energy has experienced a very rapid growth in the last few years and the majority of predictions speculate a similar scenario also for the near future. Despite the fact that wind energy is carbon free, and thus does not contribute to global warming, wind farms are not free from impacting the environment in which they are built, particularly bird and bat populations – impacts that, at least in some cases, could be remarkable and thus need to be studied and monitored. In this paper, we present the results after the first year of monitoring, aiming to understand impacts of a wind farm on birds, particularly on raptors, both residents and migrators. The study area, located in central Tuscany, hosts a very rich raptor community with some species of conservation concern. Comparing data gathered before and after the wind farm construction, we note a dramatic decrease in the number of raptor observations, even though no species have definitely left the area. Significant differences arise also considering habitat use and bird behaviour, with raptors flying higher and away from turbines, stressing an avoidance effect. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]