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This study evaluated the historical precipitation simulations of 49 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in reproducing annual and seasonal precipitation climatology, linear trends, and their spatial correlation with global SST across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula during the period of 1980–2014, using Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCP) data as a reference. Taylor's diagram was used to quantify the strengths and weaknesses of the models in simulating precipitation. The CMIP6 multi-mean ensemble (MME) and the majority of the GCMs replicated the dominant features of the spatial and temporal variations reasonably well. The CMIP6 MME outperformed the majority of the individual models. The spatial variation of the CMIP6 MME closely matched the observation. The results showed that at annual and seasonal scales, the GPCP and CMIP6 MME reproduced a coherent spatial pattern in terms of the magnitude of precipitation. The humid region received >300 mm and the arid region received <50 mm across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The models from the same modeling centers replicated the precipitation levels across different seasons and regions. The CMIP6 MME and the majority of the individual models overestimate (underestimate) in humid (arid and semi-arid)-climate zones. The annual and pre-monsoon seasons (i.e., DJFMA) were better replicated in the CMIP6 GCMs than in the monsoon-precipitation model (MJJASON). The CMIP6 MME (GPCP) showed stronger wetting (drying) trends in the northern hemisphere. In contrast, a strong drying trend in the CMIP6 MME and a weak wetting trend in the GPCP were shown in the Southern Hemisphere. The CMIP6 MME captures the spatial pattern of linear trends better than individual models across different climate zones and regions. The relationship between precipitation and sea-surface temperature (SST) exhibited a high spatial correlation (−0.80 and 0.80) with large variability across different regions and climate zones. The GPCP (CMIP6 MME) exhibited a heterogenous (homogeneous) spatial pattern, with higher correlation coefficients recorded in the CMIP6 MME than in the GPCP in all cases. Individual models from the same modeling centers showed spatial homogeneity in correlation values. The differences exhibited by the individual GCMs highlight the significance of each model's unique dynamics and physics; however, model selection should be considered for specific applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the temperature and precipitation extremes over the Arabian Peninsula using data from the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and ERA–Interim reanalysis data. Indices of extremes are calculated using daily temperature and precipitation data at 27 meteorological stations located across Saudi Arabia in line with the suggested procedure from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) for the present climate (1986–2005) using 1981–2000 as the reference period. The results show that RegCM4 accurately captures the main features of temperature extremes found in surface observations. The results also show that RegCM4 with the CLM land–surface scheme performs better in the simulation of precipitation and minimum temperature, while the BATS scheme is better than CLM in simulating maximum temperature. Among the three CMIP5 models, the two best performing models are found to accurately reproduce the observations in calculating the extreme indices, while the other is not so successful. The reason for the good performance by these two models is that they successfully capture the circulation patterns and the humidity fields, which in turn influence the temperature and precipitation patterns that determine the extremes over the study region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper establishes and analyses the principal circulation patterns in and around Saudi Arabia (domain: 10°E–70°E; 5°N–40°N) based on the daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) 0.75° × 0.75° gridded data derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analysis ERA-Interim for the period 1979–2012. Association of the circulation patterns to the local climate is investigated using observed daily temperature and rainfall data at 27 locations over Saudi Arabia for the period 1979–2010. Using the widely-used mathematical technique principal component analysis (PCA) we determine with MSLP data the principal patterns. We only analyse data for the wet season (October–May). The automated typing procedure establishes 12 circulation types, which represent all the main synoptic features especially those that originate from the Mediterranean, the European and African continents, Siberia, and also the Red and Arabian seas. There is a strong link between the circulation types and surface climate that is synoptically and spatially interpretable. Particular circulation types are associated with specific climatic conditions across the country: rainfall is linked with Types 9, 10 and 11, whilst warm days (nights) with 1, 2, 3, 9, 10, 11 and 12 (1, 2, 3, 10, 11 and 12), and cold days (nights) with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11 and 12 (2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8). In terms of regional influences, the circulation types also exhibit specific links between certain types and climatic divisions across Saudi Arabia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Stability indices provide simple metrics to characterize tropospheric states favouring convection. Not only for regions where precipitation is mainly related to convective processes, important aspects of the climate comprising information from different levels and variables can therefore be summarized in scalar metrics. Although the linkage between tropospheric stability and convective precipitation is blurred by additional prerequisites often not resolved in atmospheric models, analysis of stability indices from global climate models (GCMs) provides a more process-orientated assessment than the separate analysis of the individual climate variables. This paper presents an assessment of GCM capabilities to simulate tropospheric stability on the Arabian Peninsula. Therefore, six stability indices (K-Index, Total Totals Index, Vertical Totals Index, Showalter Index, SWEAT and Cross Totals Index) were calculated for several GCMs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 3 archive for three locations. GCM indices were compared with reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research as well as radiosoundings from the Integrated Global Radiosounding Archive. Comparison was done by means of a classification approach based on quantile values of the index distribution. Input parameters of the indices were also analysed and biases for indices as well as input parameters were identified. There are biases found for the different indices which can be attributed to some extent to biases of the input parameters. There is no input parameter which is biased in the same direction for all indices and locations. Due to the variability of the results, rankings of the models are characterized by large rank differences so that there is no overall best performing model. Nevertheless, this study provides some insight in the performance of the GCMs to simulate tropospheric stability at individual locations and so presents an alternative method of model performance assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the seasonal climatology of the three-dimensional distribution and transport pathways of dust aerosols over West Asia (WA). Dust column loading over WA exhibits strong seasonality, with markedly high (weak) loading during summer (winter). The summer dust features over WA include the (i) dust reaching up to the 500 hPa level between the Red Sea (RS) and the west coast of the Indian subcontinent (IS); (ii) a slantwise advection of dust aerosols between 850 and 700 hPa levels over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) and Arabian Sea (AS); and (iii) a prominent mid-tropospheric zonal transport of AP dust toward the IS. Maximum column integrated horizontal dust mass flux (DMF) over WA is observed in summer. The intraday changes in the intensity and spatial spread of the DMF over the AP are mediated by the out-of-phase evolution of the surface winds and low-level Shamal jets. Furthermore, the diurnal changes in the strength of the inversion layers located above the monsoon boundary layer and associated wind shear regulate the spatial patterns and intensity of the DMF over the AS. The findings will support future studies aiming at quantifying the radiative effects of dust on the regional climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the climatological state and the seasonal variability of the Arabian heat low (AHL) and the intertropical discontinuity (ITD) are investigated over the Arabian Peninsula using the 1979–2019 ERA‐5 reanalysis data. The AHL is a summertime feature, mostly at 15°–35°N and 40°–60°E, exhibiting a clear strengthening over the last four decades in line with the observed increase in surface temperature. However, no clear shift in its position is detected. The AHL, driven by both thermodynamic and dynamic forcing, is broader and stronger during daytime and exhibits considerable variability on day‐to‐day timescales, likely due to the convection associated with the Asian summer monsoon. The ITD is the boundary between the hot and dry desert air and the cooler and more moist air from the Arabian Sea. It lies along the Arabian Peninsula's southern coastline in the cold season but reaches up to 28°N between 50° and 60°E in the summer months. While in the former it has a rather small diurnal variability; in the latter it shows daily fluctuations of up to 10° in latitude. The presence of the Sarawat Mountains over southwestern Saudi Arabia precludes a northward migration of the ITD in this area. The ITD exhibited a weak northward migration in the 41‐year period, likely due to the increased sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea. On inter‐annual timescales, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and solar‐geomagnetic effects play an important role in the AHL's and ITD's variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sky thermal irradiance (Rsky) is an important factor in meteorological, climatic, and energy balance studies. There are several empirical models for predicting Rsky; however, these are based on the meteorological parameters measured in non-arid climatic conditions and an empirical model for predicting Rsky in arid climates is unavailable. Therefore, this study presents two empirical models for predicting the Rsky under clear sky conditions, common in arid regions such as the Arabian Peninsula. One is based on the sky equivalent emissivity (εsky-model) and the other on the sky equivalent temperature (Tsky-model). Meteorological parameters (i.e., air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and downward Rsky) were measured over 3 years and used to develop and validate the proposed models. The results showed that the proposed εsky- and Tsky-models had the highest predictive accuracy with a coefficient of determination of 0.86 compared with previously published models. In addition, the proposed εsky- and Tsky-models resulted in low values of root mean square and mean absolute percentage errors (7.2 and 7.8 W·m−2 and 1, 2 %, respectively); they were able to precisely predict Rsky at any time in a clear arid climate compared with the prohibitive and time-consuming measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An aerosol climatology to represent aerosols in the radiation schemes of global atmospheric models was recently developed. We derived the climatology from a reanalysis of atmospheric composition produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). As an example of an application in a global atmospheric model, we discuss the technical aspects of the implementation in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) and the impact of the new climatology on the medium-range weather forecasts and 1-year simulations. The new aerosol climatology was derived by combining a set of model simulations with constrained meteorological conditions and an atmospheric composition reanalysis for the period 2003–2013 produced by the IFS. The aerosol fields of the reanalysis are constrained by assimilating the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrievals product by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. In a further step, we used modelled aerosol fields to correct the aerosol speciation and the vertical profiles of the aerosol reanalysis fields. The new climatology provides the monthly-mean mass mixing ratio of five aerosol species constrained by assimilated MODIS AOT. Using the new climatology in the ECMWF-IFS leads to changes in the direct aerosol radiative effect compared to the climatology previously implemented, which have a small but non-impact on the forecast skill of large-scale weather patterns in the medium-range. However, details of the regional distribution of aerosol radiative forcing can have a large local impact. This is the case for the area of the Arabian Peninsula and the northern Indian Ocean. Here changes in the radiative forcing of the mineral dust significantly improve the summer monsoon circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A climate/vegetation model simulates episodic wetter and drier periods at the 21,000-y precession period in eastern North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Levant over the past 140,000 y. Large orbitally forced wet/dry extremes occur during interglacial time, ~130 to 80 ka, and conditions between these two extremes prevail during glacial time, ~70 to 15 ka. Orbital precession causes high seasonality in Northern Hemisphere (NH) insolation at ~125, 105, and 83 ka, with stronger and northward extended summer monsoon rains in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula and increased winter rains in the Mediterranean Basin. The combined effects of these two seasonally distinct rainfall regimes increase vegetation and narrow the width of the Saharan-Arabian desert and semidesert zones. During the opposite phase of the precession cycle (~115, 95, and 73 ka), NH seasonality is low, and decreased summer insolation and increased winter insolation cause monsoon and storm track rains to decrease and the width of the desert zone to increase. During glacial time (~70 to 15 ka), forcing from large ice sheets and lowered greenhouse gas concentrations combine to increase winter Mediterranean storm track precipitation; the southward retreat of the northern limit of summer monsoon rains is relatively small, thereby limiting the expansion of deserts. The lowered greenhouse gas concentrations cause the near-equatorial zone to cool and reduce convection, causing drier climate with reduced forest cover. At most locations and times, the simulations agree with environmental observations. These changing regional patterns of climate/vegetation could have influenced the dispersal of early humans through expansions and contractions of well-watered corridors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is known as one of the key challenges of the 21st century for sustainable agricultural development over Southwest Asia. However, not much is known about the way that climate changes might affect precipitation, temperature, and climate zones as their consequence over Southwest Asia. Here we have analysed probable changes in modified Thornthwaite climate zones by using monthly temperature and precipitation data from 320 meteorological stations during the historical period of 1971–2015, as well as the future projections of 17 GCMs (General Circulation Models) outputs under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in two future periods, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The CMIP5 climate projections were bias corrected using the correction factors derived in the historical period and applied to simulate future climatic conditions over Southwest Asia. Results derived from multi model ensemble projections of precipitation and temperature indicated that the regional mean annual temperature by the future period of 2071–2100 is expected to increase by 2.4 and 3.8°C, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Also, except for the southern and eastern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, by 2071–2100, the mean annual precipitation would significantly decrease by on average 6.2 and 7.5%, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Computing climate types based on averages from three climatic periods (1971–2015, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) showed that Southwest Asia tends to become warmer and dryer. For example, by the end of the 21st century, the percentage of the area occupied by the torrid‐arid climate type (which already covers 13.8% of the total area) would be 29.3 and 36.4% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. These changes are important because they would definitely have profound ecological, hydrologic, and social consequences and may affect the basic components of sustainable agricultural systems like crop and livestock productions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the influence of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) on the atmospheric circulation over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) using the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts' twentieth century reanalysis (ERA-20C) for the period 1901-2010. After describing the summer climate of the AP using various dynamic and thermodynamic parameters, we investigate the link between extreme ISMs and atmospheric circulation over the AP on inter-annual time scale. Analysis of composites of different parameters during extreme monsoon (strong and weak) years reveals that the ISM plays an important role in the summer circulation over the AP and adjoining regions. The major noticeable changes in modulating circulation during extreme monsoons are: (1) a strengthening of lower tropospheric northerly winds, westerly winds passing through the Tokar Gap, Shamal winds, and the upper tropospheric easterly jet stream during strong ISM; (2) a northward (southward) shift of the subtropical westerly jet stream during strong (weak) monsoon years; (3) the development of strong upper level ridge above the surface thermal low during strong ISM years, which result in a baroclinic structure over the AP and adjoining regions; (4) an increase in adiabatic warming, and hence aridity, over the AP during strong monsoon years, caused by intense subsidence of the middle to upper troposphere due to zonal overturning circulation; and (5) convective instability during strong monsoon years caused by an intensification of the upward motion over the southern AP. Furthermore, during strong monsoons, the availability of excess moisture leads to atmospheric instability, which in turn triggers the formation of clouds that lead to more rainfall over the southwestern AP. Finally, the westward propagation of a Gill-type Rossby waves induced by the ISM play an important role in the variations of the AP summer climate by enhancing the warm core structure over the AP and through their interaction with the midlatitude westerlies during strong monsoons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arabian Peninsula is a region characterized by diverse climatic conditions due to its location and geomorphological characteristics. Its precipitation patterns are characterized by very low annual amounts with great seasonal and spatial variability. Moreover, extreme events often lead to flooding and pose threat to human life and activities. Towards a better understanding of the spatiotemporal features of precipitation in the region, a thirty-year (1986-2015) climatic analysis has been prepared with the aid of the state-of-the-art numerical modeling system RAMS/ICLAMS. Its two-way interactive nesting capabilities, explicit cloud microphysical schemes with seven categories of hydrometeors and the ability to handle dust aerosols as predictive quantities are significant advantages over an area where dust is a dominant factor. An extended evaluation based on in situ measurements and satellite records revealed a good model behavior. The analysis was performed in three main components; the mean climatic characteristics, the rainfall trends and the extreme cases. The extremes are analyzed under the principles of the extreme value theory, focusing not only on the duration but also on the intensity of the events. The annual and monthly rainfall patterns are investigated and discussed. The spatial distribution of the precipitation trends revealed insignificant percentage differences in the examined period. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the eastern part and the top half of the western Arabian Peninsula presented the lowest risk associated with extreme events. Apart from the pure scientific interest, the present study provides useful information for different sectors of society and economy, such as civil protection, constructions and reinsurance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate of the Arabian Peninsula is characterized by significant spatial and temporal variations, due to its complex topography and the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, the role of dust in the formation of regional climate is considered to be crucial. In this work, the regional climatology for the Arabian Peninsula has been studied by employing a high resolution state of the art atmospheric model that included sophisticated physical parameterization schemes and online treatment of natural aerosol particles. The simulations covered a 30-year period (1986–2015) with a temporal resolution of 3 h and a spatial distance of 9 km. The main focus was given to the spatial and temporal variations of mean temperature and temperature extremes, wind speed and direction, and relative humidity. The results were evaluated using in situ measurements indicating a good agreement. An examination of possible climatic changes during the present climate was also performed through a comprehensive analysis of the trends of mean temperature and temperature extremes. The statistical significant trend values were overall positive and increased over the northwestern parts of the examined area. Similar spatial distributions were found for the daily minimum and maximum temperatures. Higher positive values emerged for the daily maxima. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]