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Global regional trade agreements (RTAs) are experiencing unprecedented rapid development in terms of number and content of provisions, and China's RTAs are no exception. With the increase in the depth of RTA provisions, as an important form of economic and trade relations between countries, investment is bound to be affected. Taking the RTAs signed by China as the research object and using the bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) data provided by the International Monetary Fund CDIS database and the relevant data from the World Bank RTA text depth database, this paper constructs various indexes to measure the depth of RTA provisions and analyzes the effects of changes in the depth of RTA provisions on inward FDI stocks to China. The study finds that the improvement of all four depth indexes, namely, total depth, core depth, depth of WTO+ provisions, and depth of WTO-X provisions, significantly promotes China's inward FDI stocks. This conclusion still holds after a series of endogenous problem analysis and robustness tests. Further analysis shows that the improvement of the depth of RTA provisions has a relatively greater effect on FDI stocks from developing countries and countries along the "Belt and Road". At the same time, there exists significant heterogeneity in the effects of different RTA provisions on the FDI stocks. The insights that we obtain in this paper enable us to provide policy recommendations for the construction of China's global high-standard free trade agreement (FTA) network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the textile trade data of 66 countries along the Belt and Road from 2001 to 2020, this paper uses the social network analysis method to measure the network centrality, uses the block model method to investigate the competitive and complementary relationship of textile trade among countries along the Belt and Road, and uses the QAP method to analyze the structure of textile trade network and its influencing factors. The results show that since the implementation of the "Belt and Road" Initiative, the density of textile trade network has increased significantly, and the network presents an obvious core-edge structure. China has always been in the center of textile trade network. Before and after the "Belt and Road" Initiative is put forward, core countries such as China, India and Thailand changed from internal sector to two-way overflow sector, and textile trade competition existed among core countries. The influencing factors on the textile trade network of countries along the Belt and Road are, in descending order, economic scale, regional trade agreements between countries, population scale, cultural proximity and geographical distance. Based on the research conclusions and combined with the textile trade network pattern of the Belt and Road countries, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions to promote high-quality development of textile trade between China and "The Belt and Road" countries from the perspective of social network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify trade integration and structure effects on bilateral trade between China and its partners, focusing on Chinese merchandise imports during the period 1995–2018. Design/methodology/approach: The methodological approach applied here uses the augmented gravity model to investigate the factors lying behind import intensity, by use of the ordinary least squares (OLS) and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimators. Findings: The findings provide evidence of complementarity between the Chinese demand and the world commodity markets. Free trade agreements between China and third countries seem to gradually lose significance, as the Chinese economy consolidates in world trade. Higher product diversification in export structures of China's trading partners can become advantageous for facilitating market penetration. Diversification of energy resources, the steady, high demand for infrastructure equipment and more sophisticated consumer products constantly determine the structure of Chinese merchandise imports originating mainly and increasingly from countries with direct access to the Pacific Ocean. Originality/value: The analytical breakdown of Chinese imports, presented in this paper, adds value to the existing literature with regard to trade structure analysis for China, paving the way for similar research for other developing countries as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional trade agreements increasingly include provisions that regulate state-owned enterprises. This paper combines new information on the content of "deep" regional trade agreements and data on Chinese firm-level exports during 2000–2011 to analyze the spillover effect of rules on state-owned enterprises on the intensive and extensive margins of Chinese state-owned enterprises' trade. Rather than containing state capitalism, regional trade agreements regulating state-owned enterprises signed by Chinese trading partners with third countries increase exports and entry of Chinese state-owned enterprises as they gain a competitive edge in regulated markets. This spillover effect is robust to several extensions and is even stronger for agreements that include rules on subsidies and competition policy. This finding points to the need for commonly agreed multilateral rules to regulate state owned enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 2017 and 2018, US President Donald Trump introduced a Section 301 investigation into China’s trade practices following allegations of unfair trade practices against China (Bown & Kolb, 2018). The battlelines first emerged when China surpassed the US in 2009 to become Africa’s largest trading partner, having signed bilateral trade agreements with over 40 countries in the African continent. By the second decade of the 2000s, the rise of the digital economy, estimated to grow at between 15% and 25% annually in emerging countries (WEF, 2017), drew Africa into the crosshairs of the US-China trade war. Between 2018 and 2023, over 36 Chinese high-tech companies were blacklisted by the US, citing concerns over national security (Sevastopulo et al., 2022). Against this background, the article places the US-China standoff over digital supremacy in Africa in a media context, bringing novel dimensions into consideration that illuminate a media war focused on competing hegemonic agendas. The article springboards off Bastiansen et al. (2019, pp. 5-8) to argue that the trade war between the two countries presents an ideal setting to study partisan and elite perspectives reflected in news reporting on the international conflict. By expanding the scope of analysis to the media as a mode of information, the article’s main departure point is that the trade war between the two countries that began in 2009, when China surpassed the US to become Africa’s largest trading partner, is being interlocuted through the agency of soft power, with media outlets playing a pivotal role in shaping public biases. A central theme emerging from the research is that media publications have clear biases. Generally, the US news media outlets analysed are heavily critical of the Chinese government and its cutting-edge technologies in Africa. In contrast, the popular Chinese media outlets analysed adopt a defensive stance in their responses to the US. Revealing this through thematic analysis can contribute valuable insights into the dynamics of the tech war between China and the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper builds a novel panel data sourced from the Regional Trade Agreements Database and Database on International Trade in Services Statistics (ITSS) to explore the heterogeneous effects of service trade agreements on services trade. Then we employ a gravity model with the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation and obtain the following findings: First, both general service trade agreements and deep service trade agreements promote services trade. Yet, deep trade agreements have a higher trade‐expansion effect (roughly 21.53%) on services trade compared to general ones (16.9%). Next, based on the content of trade‐related provisions, we find provisions of rights of non‐establishment and natural person movement largely increase the services trade, while review provisions do not have a significant impact on services trade. Surprisingly, provisions with MFN status even exhibit a negative relationship with services trade. Third, with whom you sign the agreements matters. Deep trade agreements exert a positive and significant impact on services trade between high‐income countries (NN), low‐income countries (SS) and high‐ to low‐income countries (NS), but are insignificant between low‐ to high‐income countries (SN). Four, emerging regions, including China, may benefit more from deep trade agreements. As indicated by propensity score matching, deep trade agreements reduce service trade costs and improve the business environment more effectively than GTAs. Our empirical results are robust after controlling for the endogeneity of DTAs and GTAs. Our findings provide direct evidence for the role of deep service trade agreements in fostering international economic integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After eight years of back-and-forth negotiations, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, was signed in the end of 2020. This mega trade deal is a potential free trade agreement that originally poses challenges for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) led by US, because a rising China with its economic influence in regional trade threatens the current US hegemony, alienates countries in East Asia from the US, and likely strive to become the leader of RCEP. However, these diplomatic strategies are not truly in line with China's long-term interests; on the contrary, this paper argues that China should use the platform of RCEP to act as a supporter and promoter. Playing the roles of supporter and promoter is surely wise since it assists the neighboring countries to make economic advantages with China in a more liberalized regional market, while pragmatically reminding the leaders in Beijing that China should address the South China Sea problem with ASEAN countries in a defensive manner. All these relative low profile strategies, based on 'one political step back for two economic steps forward,' may consider as Chinese approach or Chinese way in RCEP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the different factors affecting Sino-African trade based on the gravity model, and propose some solutions to improve the problems. Design/methodology/approach: The paper is based on an extended gravity model, including trade agreement and recession as explanatory variables. The impacts of trade agreement and economic recession on Sino-African imports and exports are examined. Findings: The results show that the product of GDP affects African exports to China significantly and negatively, and affects African imports from China positively. Real exchange rate affects African exports to China positively, and affects African imports from China negatively. Population affect African exports to China significantly and positively, and affect African imports from China positively. Recession have negative effects on both African imports from China and exports to China but is only significant for imports. Agreement affects African imports from China and exports to China positively. Our findings confirm the impact of economic recession, and imply that the structure of African product exported to China should be improved, and trade agreements should be reinforced. Originality/value: This paper contributes and extends the literature on Sino-African trade by improving the traditional gravity model to include the impact of all trade agreements, and their aggregating effects on trade. The paper also seeks to assess the trade impact of economic recession through a dynamic gravity model approach for which there has been no research done to our knowledge. In this regard, it provides new understanding of the trade pattern between China and Africa, and ways in improving the Sino-African bilateral trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose: This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA. Design/methodology/approach: A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war. Findings: The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors' services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements. Originality/value: The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following decades of relative isolation, China and India have become the world's largest new traders. In this paper, we focus on their Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). While the two economies initially followed similar paths, with a growing number of PTAs signed in the first decade of the 21st Century, since 2011 India has taken a U-turn and stopped completing them. China, on the other hand, has widened and deepened its trade agreements. We present a novel theoretical framework to analyze international economic negotiations by emerging economies and use it to study the puzzling divergence of the trade policies of China and India. By adapting the two-level game framework to emerging economies, we argue that there are key differences in the political economies of countries like China and India (compared to Western industrialized ones), which requires a more specific focus on the domestic side of the two-level game. We show that accounting for non-legislative domestic ratification processes and for iterative games and experiential learning by domestic actors are crucial in understanding the trade strategies of emerging economies. While much of the literature explains large emerging economies by looking at external systemic factors, we instead suggest that their domestic politics trumps international politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach: This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings: This research paper concentrates on the focus and inherent challenges of China's efforts to unite the Asian region for mutual economic benefit. Chinese Government-led free trade agreements with other Asian countries, a promotion of China's RMB currency, and the Belt and Road infrastructure initiative are all being pursued as ways of networking Asia into firm competitor to western countries like the USA on the world trade stage. Originality/value: The briefing saves busy executives, strategists, and researchers' hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade facilitation is essential to lowering overall trade costs and increasing economic returns on both the multilateral and regional levels. Trade facilitation is also an integral part of trade agreements and has become an important component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This paper adopts a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and a trade inefficiency model and assigns values to different trade facilitation provisions to construct relevant indicators to assess the impacts of the trade facilitation provisions of the World Trade Organization Trade Facilitation Agreement (WTO TFA) and regional trade agreements (RTAs) on trade efficiency between China and BRI countries, as well as on the current conditions and challenges of fresh agricultural product trade between China and countries of the BRI, using data from 2011 to 2020. The results show that the size of domestic markets and population positively affect agricultural trade between China and BRI countries, while geographical distance has a negative impact on their scale of trade. Moreover, this study finds that the obligations set out in trade facilitation provisions of RTAs play an important role in improving trade efficiency, and among these trade facilitation obligations improving the legal provisions of "information transparency", "customs cooperation" and "advance ruling" can significantly improve trade efficiency, however, some measures relating to "formalities" could potentially constitute barriers to trade. This study innovatively carried out an analysis of the impact of trade facilitation provisions on agricultural trade flows and efficiency from the perspectives of international trade law and economics and provides new policy recommendations for BRI countries to support agricultural trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Can free trade agreements (FTAs) evade technical barriers to trade (TBT)? Based on the FTAs and TBT notification of the United States, this paper addresses this question using detailed product-level trade data of the period 2000–2017. It shows that, for the products covered by the US TBT notifications, Chinese exports to third countries that are part of the FTA trade bloc with the US are positively correlated to the imports by the US from the same countries. However, the authors do not find a bypass effect of FTA in evading technical barriers as regards trade with several other countries. Furthermore, the bypass evidence is stronger for countries near China that have similar institutional qualities, better political relations with China, a larger Chinese population, an FTA, and commonality in language with China, and where the rerouting cost is low for Chinese exporters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How has China contributed toward the conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)? The extant literature tends to either undervalue China's role or emphasizes the absence of China's willingness to realize the RCEP. However, it is difficult to form region-wide multilateral preferential trade agreements (PTAs), such as RCEP, without any significant contribution from a regional hegemon, such as China. This paper, thus, argues that China has contributed significantly toward the conclusion of RCEP by engendering incentives for member countries to join through multiple cooperative structures. These cooperative structures involve China-led bilateral PTAs and international development forums, which include the Belt and Road Initiative and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. With the gradual shift from bilateral to multilateral PTAs and forum-linkage strategies, China turned to be more assertive in concluding the RCEP than in the early years of RCEP negotiations, as evidenced by the discourse of political and opinion leaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since becoming a WTO member in 2001, China has negotiated numerous regional trade agreements with astonishing speed. This paper provides an overview of China's current free trade agreements and examines the economic importance of two major Asian regional trade agreements for China. The academic literature often treats China's free trade agreements as driven more by political, rather than economic, interests. The agreements are seen as shallow and concluded with minor economic partners. In fact, China's approach to trade agreements has evolved over time and cumulative impact of these agreements has been positive for trade between China and its agreement partners. The recently concluded Asian regional free trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), should positively influence trade for both China and other participating Asian countries. China could also benefit economically from joining the other major regional trade agreement, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically analyses the effect of trade competitiveness and complementarity on the trade development between China and the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). The study first measures the trade competitiveness and the complementarity between China and the countries along the B&R by using the trade competitiveness coefficient (TCC) and the trade complementarity index (TCI). Then a spatial gravity model is constructed to analyse the effect of trade competitiveness and complementarity on trade development between China and the countries along the B&R. We use generalized method of moments (GMM) and spatial filtering technology to verify the robustness of the model. The results show that the GDP of China and the countries along the B&R, the land area of countries along the B&R, trade complementarity, common language, free trade agreements (FTA), and the B&R Initiative significantly promote the trade development between China and the countries along the B&R, whereas the geographical distance between countries and trade competitiveness significantly inhibit it. Finally, to promote the trade development between China and the countries along the B&R, the present paper puts forward suggestions including improving trade promotion policies between China and the countries along the B&R and vigorously expanding cooperation with complementary industries in the countries along the B&R to enhance trade dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Cuadernos Europeos de Deusto is the property of Universidad de Deusto and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper explores the effects of import competition on the manufacturing sector in Chile following the implementation of the country's two largest Free Trade Agreements (FTA) (with the USA and China). Exploiting cross-industry variation in import exposure, we analyse the effects on manufacturing sales, employment and labour productivity at the finest level of industrial classification (4 digit ISIC level). We detect an overall negative effect of increased Chinese import penetration, owing to substitution effects from low and medium tech imports and a less pronounced effect from USA imports. By introducing interaction effects, we find that the levels of foreign ownership and the export intensity of the domestic industries reverse the negative effect due to the opportunities offered via participation in global value chains. An IV strategy is applied to address standard endogeneity concerns and confirm the robustness of our estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing fragmentation of production across national borders and the proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have become salient features of the global economy in the past decades. This paper examines the role of PTAs in promoting the integration of domestic industries into global value chains (GVCs) based on the experience of China, a country that has emerged as a key link in East Asian and global production networks in recent years. We conjecture that both the presence of PTAs and the depth of these agreements matter for GVC participation. Furthermore, PTAs that contain strong provisions with regard to investment protection and services are particularly likely to stimulate the expansion of GVC linkages. This is because strong investment protection provisions may reduce the disruptions that hostile government policy may generate for the entire production chain. Rigorous PTA provisions regarding services may help facilitate the provision of services, which are not only critical in enabling the emergence of GVCs, but are also becoming essential inputs in GVC trade. Empirical analysis of the effect of the PTAs signed by China on the GVC participation of 16 Chinese industries between 2005 and 2015 lends substantial support to our hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the ex-post trade effects of China's multilateral, regional and bilateral trade liberalization using augmented gravity and panel data estimation methods for the period 1995–2016. China's accession to the WTO was revealed to have had a significant impact on the volume of trade as well as on bilateral exports and imports. Regional trade agreements and the majority of bilateral trade agreements were found not to be effective in increasing China's foreign trade. Only the agreements with Chile, Costa Rica and Switzerland were effective in increasing China's trade volume. Moreover, the results for Chile were driven by increases in both exports and imports, while for Costa Rica and Switzerland only by increased imports from these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have investigated the impact of imports, especially those from China, on the domestic labor market. In this paper, we empirically examine the effects of not only imports from China but also those from regional trade agreement (RTA) partners on employment in Japan. To this end, we decomposed the total import penetration into the import penetration under the most favored nation (MFN) and RTA regimes. To address the endogeneity concern on our import penetration variables, we estimated our models by the instrumental variable method. As in previous studies in the literature, we found that the rise in import penetration from China significantly decreases employment in Japan. In contrast, import penetration under the RTA regime is found to have significantly positive effects on employment. The increase in imports under RTA regimes is not harmful to the domestic labor market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the beginning of 2018, President Trump started taking protective tariff measures against products from China in a sequence of events which started a 'trade war' between the United States and China. As the value of trade flows affected on both sides rose to a significant amount, this episode will become an interesting research object in the future. A thorough analysis of many outcomes of interest is at this point in time – and even will be in the next few years – impossible due to a lack of data which will only become available at a later point. However, as is customary with historical preferential liberalizations in trade agreements and potentially the opposite of it through Brexit, it is possible to gauge consequences of this 'trade war' or 'trade dispute' when focusing on the stocks of listed companies around related tariff-change announcements or implementations by the United States and China in the relevant time span. This paper proposes such an analysis and finds, very much consistent with the rumours from business, that the associated protectionist tariffs appear to have done to a large extent the opposite of what was intended: they hurt domestic firms in targeted and also other, untargeted sectors of an acting country, and they affect third countries and territories which are not even party to the 'trade war' or 'dispute'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main features of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) is that certain products are excluded from tariff concessions. But why do some products receive more protection than others in FTAs? In this paper, we use disaggregated agricultural product data and a political economy analytical framework to examine the determinants of product exclusions from tariff reductions in China's FTAs. Taking into account the political costs of the incumbent government, our results show that products associated with trade creation and politically sensitive products are more likely to be excluded from tariff concessions in FTAs. Furthermore, we show that the Chinese government tends to use its negotiating power to achieve various objectives by seeking more economic benefits from large trading partners and making more concessions to small ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the impact of the quality of regional trade agreements (RTA) on the quality of China's exports to the 'Belt and Road' countries. We use enterprise and product data from China and from 11 Belt and Road countries that have signed RTA with China. The quality of the RTA, as measured by clause coverage and law commitment indexes, significant impact in the quality of export products. In RTAs, the commitment rate plays an overall important role; however, the clause coverage rate of the new generation of WTO‐X agreements has a greater effect than for WTO+ agreements, especially for medium and high‐technology products, which must meet the high standards. The effect of high‐quality RTA is greater in improving the quality of Chinese state‐owned enterprises' products exported to Belt and Road countries when compared with those of private and foreign‐holding companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID‐19 pandemic is crippling the global economy and heightening distrust and political disagreements among major countries. Furthermore, ongoing deglobalization efforts taken by firms and countries are fueling the rise of economic nationalism. A prime example is the possible decoupling of US–China economic and trade relations, which the ongoing trade war has already significantly disrupted. This paper analyzes the impacts of COVID‐19 on US agricultural exports to China, especially the added delays and uncertainty regarding China's food imports meeting the US–China phase one trade deal target. I present the views of US farmers and the general public toward China and argue that healthy US–China agricultural trade relations are not only critical for both countries but welcomed by US farmers. I also discuss the possible rise in nontariff barriers following the pandemic as well as trade policies that are increasingly intertwined with political tensions. Finally, I discuss how the US–China phase one trade deal could possibly lead to a more balanced bilateral agricultural trade portfolio with greater share of protein and retail food products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of International Relations / Medzinarodne Vztahy is the property of University of Economics in Bratislava, Faculty of International Relations and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the context of the United States prioritizing bilateral as well as trilateral trade agreements and China's regional economic integration strategy based on the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative, the B&R free trade agreement (FTA) and the US–European–Japanese FTA (UEJFTA) have become the two regional economic integration processes with the greatest potential impact on the world economic landscape. The present paper examines the game situation as well as the economic effects of China's B&R‐FTA 2.0 network against the United States' UEJFTA to study the optimization of China's B&R FTA system. By constructing a four‐country extended game model under a two‐part expansion, we find that an increase in members will promote the welfare of each country when there is a single regional trade agreement; the potential member countries tend to choose larger organizations for higher economic benefits when there are several regional trade agreements. Our quantitative simulation shows that promoting the construction of the FTA 2.0 network based on the B&R can significantly alleviate the impact of FTA entered into by the United States with its major trading partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

B Tat Wai Tan, Sunway University: b This paper touches on the important issue of how the U.S.-China trade war will impact on Taiwan's economy.[1] It is important not just for Taiwan, but also a reflection for other economies that have increasingly benefited from their association with the high growth economy of China and the supply chain engulfing them. There is a major difference between Taiwan being part of China's supply chain and both China and Taiwan being part of American companies' supply chain. The product owners can decide to reduce purchases from China but maintain purchases of parts from Taiwan but channel them to new centers, and Taiwan may not lose even if China were to lose. This has nothing to do with Taiwan's export to China, unless the export of LCD panels was so big it is cheaper to supply within China - in which case the relationship should be a positive one, rather than a negative one. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of Journal of Southern Agriculture is the property of Journal of Southern Agriculture and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The pursuit of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) by numerous countries, aimed at promoting trade among member nations, is widely acknowledged. Nonetheless, policymakers often voice concerns regarding the potentially short-lived nature of PTAs' trade-promoting effects. In light of this concern, we present empirical evidence that substantiates the transient nature of the trade-enhancing impacts associated with PTAs. We identify the expanding economic influence of China in the global trade sphere as a primary driver for this trend. These findings are reinforced by a compelling illustration within the context of the PTAs involving Korea and Japan with Latin American countries. Our case study suggests that the attenuation of the export-promoting effects of Korea and Japan's PTAs with their Latin American counterparts can be attributed to the penetration of Chinese goods, the sustained reduction of Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs, and the proliferation of comprehensive PTAs within regional contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As multilateral trade negotiations have lapsed into stalemate, regional economic integration arrangements like free trade agreements (FTAs) are gaining growing prominence. We propose a theory on how a developing country's GVC linkages with partners are affected by partners' position on the GVCs and the characteristics of the FTAs, and use a large matched data of China's trading partners to validate our hypothesis. We find that there are stronger value chain linkages between China and higher‐income economies, and the degree of mutual value chain dependence rises in line with the partner's development level. The GVC promoting effect of FTA partnership is more pronounced for China's value chain linkages with its higher‐income partners. The results survive various robustness checks and are likely to be informative for other developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asia –Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) is one of the major Preferential Trade Agreement integrating two major markets of India and China in the Asia-Pacific region. The textile industry is one of most important industry that requires APTA trade liberalisation to promote intra-regional trade. The present paper highlights how the export and import share of the select economies within APTA have changed and it provides a scenario analysis with a commitment to expand the sector. The paper also brings out significant improvement which India may focus on to improve the trade scenario of the textile industry and how APTA may provide a direction in this regard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the deepening of regional industrial transfer, traditional trade data cannot fully explain the real level of trade in a region. This paper aims to reveal the changing pattern of real trade along the "Belt and Road" by establishing a value-added trade (VAT) network of the "Belt and Road" countries and comparing it with the trade network. Applying a network method, we analyze and compare the structures, characteristics, evolutions, and underlying dynamisms of both networks. With a thorough interpretation and visualization of the network density, network centrality, trade communities, and influencing factors of both networks in the three time sections of 2005, 2010, and 2015, we come to the following findings: (1) the connectivity of both networks has been greatly enhanced, reflecting a more integrated regional economy. (2) The center-external structure of both networks has been further strengthened and the polarization of the VAT network is more obvious than that of the trade network. (3) The organizations of trade communities and VAT communities are largely different. Specifically, China rapidly increased its core position in the VAT network and incorporated more and more countries into its VAT community. (4) The underlying factors have similar impacts on both networks. While the growth of regional economic size and free trade agreements will enhance both trade and VAT, the economic gaps and population differences among the "Belt and Road" countries will prohibit regional economic ties. Based on these findings, we propose suggestions on further regional economic cooperation by taking advantage of China's core position to promote regional VAT, construct broad trade channels, and enhance trade governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is a large trade surplus country and could potentially become involved in bilateral trade retaliation. This paper uses a numerical simulation method to empirically explore how Chinese involvement in bilateral trade retaliation could affect both China and other countries. We analyze four different country groupings using scenario solutions of numerical global general equilibrium models to simulate trade retaliation equilibria and calculate their impacts. Our simulation results suggest that China will be hurt by trade retaliation sequences with other countries, but impacts depend on who is involved. Trade retaliation with large countries and major trade partners will hurt China more. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a numerical multi‐country and multi‐sector general equilibrium model with endogenous trade imbalance and trade cost to simulate the effects of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans‐Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and its future member expansion. Simulation results show that most member countries will benefit from trade integration and that most non‐member countries will lose due to the exclusion effects of the regional trade agreement, but effects for specific countries differ. The entry of the US, China, India and the EU to the CPTPP will significantly increase member countries' benefits, and their entry will decrease the losses of non‐member countries. The US withdrawal from the CPTPP has a negative effect on the US, which will increase as more countries join. The world as a whole will gain from the trade deal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China, as the world's largest importer, heavily relies on agricultural products. However, the impact of China's free trade agreements (FTAs) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embodied in agricultural product imports has been overlooked. It's crucial to analyze changes in embodied GHG emissions resulting from FTAs. We categorize 367 agricultural products into 15 categories and construct a dataset on the embodied GHG emissions of these products imported by China from 119 countries between 2000 and 2015. Using the Propensity Score Matching (PSM)-progressive difference-in-differences (DID) method, our findings indicate that China's FTAs have double-edged impact on agricultural product imports. It has positively influenced imports, with a 12.22% annual growth rate, promoting economic integration. However, it has negatively affected GHG emissions, leading to a 53.00% increase in emissions from agricultural imports. These findings highlight the importance of addressing production and consumption in reducing GHG strategies with agricultural products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the mid-1990s, China has become the leading exporter worldwide of manufactured textiles and clothing. For Nigeria, one of China's major trading partners in Africa, increased imports of Chinese textiles are related to the decline of the Nigerian textile manufacturing industry. It also reflects the opening up of China to foreign investment and the subsequent boom in manufactured textile exports and to changes in World Trade Organization textile agreements. This paper examines these changes in textile manufacture and trade, focusing first on twentieth-century Chinese and Nigerian textile manufacturing histories and their subsequent divergence, beginning in the 1980s and continuing into the early twenty-first century. The increase in Chinese-Nigerian textile trade became physically evident in Nigeria in the late 1990s, with Chinese textile companies setting up offices in Lagos and Kano, and Nigerian traders and businessmen setting up offices in Guangzhou, China. The question of how increased shipments of Chinese manufactured textiles have been organized by Chinese company representatives, brokers, and traders, as well as by Nigerian traders and businessmen to meet Nigerian consumer demand is then addressed. Finally, this growth in textile trade is considered in the context of Chinese-Nigerian plans for the building of a Free Trade Zone in Lagos, which would include the construction of a new textile mill. The paper concludes by considering whether this collaboration may lead to a revival of the Nigerian textile industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic cooperation between Hong Kong and Mainland China, especially Guangdong province, has flourished since the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in 1997. The landmark is the conclusion of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) between Hong Kong and the Mainland in 2003. CEPA covers liberalisation of trade in goods, liberalisation of trade in services, mutual recognition of professional qualifications, and other trade facilitation measures. This paper uses the collaborative governance regime framework to analyse the economic cooperation between Hong Kong and Mainland China under CEPA. This case shows that if there are environmental conditions generating incentives for both parties to cooperate, a committed leadership on both sides to drive the regime, and institutional arrangements that could facilitate the collaborative dynamics, effective collaboration between players from different political and institutional backgrounds can still be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of China’s trade agreement and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Nigeria with special reference to the manufacturing sector utilizing the following key economic performance indicators: inflation, unemployment, income and gross domestic product, to name a few. Since the turn of the millennium, China has enjoyed a substantial presence in the African continent. In fact, the country has signed bilateral agreements with Angola, South Africa and Sudan to name a few. Recently, China established its West African trade hub in Lagos, the economic capital of Nigeria, to be strategically positioned. The results of the study revealed conclusively that although China’s investments over the years have benefited the Nigerian economy and its various firms in the manufacturing sector, the agreement signed by both countries ultimately needs to be reexamined to ensure equity. Design/methodology/approach – To thoroughly analyze the effects of China’s investments in Nigeria, this study was carried out in two phases. The first analysis of this study is anchored on a “before/after” framework based on descriptive statistical analysis of the selected economic performance indicators chosen from selected cross-national data. Accordingly, the time frame for this study runs from 1993-2012 which roughly corresponds to the era when China commenced significant investments in Nigeria. Second, employees, policymakers and individuals in the manufacturing/textile industries were interviewed. Furthermore, participation from federal as well as local government agency staff members was solicited using the Delphi technique. Findings – Empirically, the results conclusively reveal China’s dominance in the manufacturing and textile sectors in Nigeria. In other words, at face value, China’s investments are ultimately good for the Nigerian economy. However, at a micro-level analysis, the researcher examined the human factor, that is, the families of former and current employees, abandoned businesses/factories and a decaying textile industry that was once vibrant. Originality/value – To the knowledge of the researcher, this is the first study attempting to assess the impact of the rise of China on the Nigerian economy by combining key economic performance indicator in tandem with face-to-face interviews and the Delphi technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) promise exclusive access for their members at the expense of excluded parties. But what does this exclusivity mean for firms in nonmember states if production networks are internationally organized? This paper analyzes the effect of PTA exclusion on firms embedded in the global supply chains, focusing on the case of China's exclusion from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Drawing on a survey of Chinese firm managers during the TPP negotiations, we find that productive and downstream firms anticipated the exclusion and made adjustments accordingly, which led to a general sense of optimism toward the agreement. When presented with the prospect of an expanded TPP, however, firms are divided depending on how their own positions in the global supply chain complement or compete with the new member. These findings, validated with interviews in the field, suggest that the effects of PTA exclusion depend on the ability and need for firms to adjust. As a result, exclusion does not equate to an unalloyed loss for excluded firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The China-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) has been recognized as a significant progress in regional economic integration for member countries. While the existing literature has widely studied the trade effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), it remains unclear how it affects environment-related input use. This paper examines the impacts of agricultural trade liberalization on the domestic fertilizer use following the CAFTA. Using a combined dataset consisting of country- and product-level fertilizer use and predictors over the period 1995–2015, this paper empirically examines the impact of CAFTA on the domestic fertilizer use for the exported fresh fruits and vegetables (FFV) from China to ASEAN members. We use the synthesis control method to identify the aggregate impacts of CAFTA on the domestic fertilizer use, followed by the propensity score matching difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) method to examine the mechanism through which fertilizer use is increased. We find that the total volumes of the domestic fertilizer use for Chinese exported FFV increased significantly following the implementation of the Early Harvest Program under CAFTA in 2004. This impact is more evident for exports to the initial ASEAN members compared to the new members. The PSM-DID results suggest that CAFTA increased the degree of export concentration on ASEAN members. The evidence is consistent with the export diversion effect of a customs union instead of the export creation effect due to trade liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The China-India bilateral relationship has always been influenced by three Ts: Territory, Tibet, and Trade. Although the political relationship due to border dispute and Tibet has been on the edge, the trading relationship between China and India has been moving forward steady. As the political relationship between China and India is becoming more strong and strategic, it is most likely that China and India to drive their economic relationship at higher level. In that respect, an Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between China and India is inevitable. The benefits of FTA such as free flow of goods, services, investments, technology, capital which can be beneficial for the development, stability, and growth of the countries as well as the region can be locked in by adopting a dispute settlement system with fair and efficient procedures and practices. Moreover, an inefficient dispute settlement mechanism can be an effective non-tariff trade barrier. In other words, it might be accurate to say that dispute settlement mechanisms which are inefficient and ineffective actually block trade. Therefore, the FTA between China and India, in addition to liberalization of economy and reducing the tariff; it should also contain a comprehensive rules of dispute settlement which is practical, efficient and effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the climate–trade debate, moderate attention is dedicated to the role of trade agreements on climate. In turn, trade agreements could help countries meet climate goals by removing tariffs, harmonizing standards on environmental goods, and eliminating distorting subsidies on fossil fuels. This paper aims to provide an overview of the role of trade agreements on climate-change mitigation. This systematic literature review is based on the international economic literature published between 2010 and 2020. This literature review underlines that the effectiveness of the trade agreements and WTO negotiations on emission reduction is weak. This is due to different national interests and protectionism. The elimination of trade barriers stimulates trade, but this may also raise greenhouse gas emissions and cause other environmental problems (e.g., deforestation). Furthermore, this article points out that emission leakage is also a crucial issue hindering the success of global climate agreements on greenhouse gas reduction. The greatest beneficiaries of the trade agreements are usually the largest GHG emitters, such as China, the US, and the EU. By contrast, developing countries are in a weaker position regarding climate–trade negotiation. The literature review offers policy solutions which can contribute to emission reduction and tools for stimulating a trade-related climate-change abatement policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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China's government has pledged to attain net-zero emissions by 2050 and aims to create the world's most resilient and forward-looking border by 2025. It has outlined a high-level vision for digital trade and a freeport plan and guarantees to implement new free trade agreements, develop infrastructure, and equalise the economy. Therefore, this study explores the dynamic impact of digital trade and financial development on ecological sustainability from 2000-Q1 to 2020-Q4. We apply the Bootstrap ARDL model for empirical analysis and found that digital trade in goods and services, financial development, and green innovation are conducive to long-term environmental sustainability. Similar results are also observed in the short run; however, the influence of short-run parameters is relatively lower. Moreover, the error correction term endorses convergence towards stable equilibrium with a 32.7% quarterly adjustment rate. Granger causality test report uni-direction casualty in all variables, except green innovation and carbon emissions. These findings recommend an inclusive policy for promoting digital trade, financial integration, and green innovation in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's once geometrically expanding investment treaty regime is increasingly beset by unstable investment markets, politicized trade sanctions, and conflicting domestic demands on its financial reserves. A dilemma facing China is how to manage its relationships collaboratively with its treaty partners. At stake are treaties concluded by competitors like the EU with both developed and developing states that provide access to foreign markets previously serviced largely by China and its outbound investors. This article scrutinizes China's likely responses to these formidable obstacles. One reaction is for China to selectively extend the policies underlying its planned domestic economy to global investment markets. In doing so, China risks being typecast as an investment overlord that turns developing states into dependencies rather than fully participating investment partners. A reconciliatory approach is for China to champion profitable dealings with shared benefits for its bilateral treaty partners and their investors. To redress these obstacles effectively is a key challenge for China. This Article explores that challenge in assessing how China is likely to protect both its national interests and the interests of foreign investors, consistently with its planned economy and the liberalization investment law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much ink has been splashed on the ideological, conceptual, and practical challenges that China's state capitalism has posed to global trade rules. There is a growing perception that the current international trade rules are neither conceptually coherent nor practically effective in tackling China's state capitalism. This perception has not only led to the emergence of new trade rules in regional trade agreements, but also culminated in the US-China trade war, only further aggravated by the Covid-19 pandemic. This Article contributes to the debate of what trade rules may be needed to counteract China's state capitalism by unpacking the black box of China's state capitalism. Based on an analysis of the nature of China's state capitalism, this Article provides a preliminary evaluation of current trade rules taken to counteract China's state capitalism, in particular the new rules in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and explain why they are unlikely to be successful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic strategies and planning are critical to a country's growth and development. China, like many other countries, is seeking the most cost-effective trade deals. Using the Global Vector Auto Regression (GVAR) model, this study examined the impact of a shock to China's macroeconomic factors on trading economies. The major findings reveal that there is no co-movement between the shock in Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) and German macroeconomic indicators; however, the shock has a positive and substantial influence on Japan's GDP and Unites States (US)' exchange rate. It is also worth noting that a shock to Chinese trade volume is more susceptible and more disturbing than a shock to US trade volume since it reduces trade volume and causes the Ren Min Bi (RMB) to devalue permanently. Furthermore, the analysis shows that Chinese stock prices have a major influence on German economy since China's GDP, trade volume, and currency appreciate over time when its stock price rises. Finally, the exchange rate shock is beneficial to Germany as it boosts GDP and trade volume but has a negative influence on US stock prices. The current study is, therefore, expected to be a suitable beginning point for the governments and policymakers of trading partners to design an effective trade policy to minimize the impact on major economic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]