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Jilin Province is one of the important grain-producing regions in China, the frequent drought and waterlogging events in this region have seriously impacted local agricultural production, therefore, it is particularly necessary to explore the spatiotemporal variations in drought and waterlogging and how they effect on maize yields. In this paper, we use the daily meteorological data recorded at 27 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1961 to 2020 to calculate the modified crop water deficit index (mCWDI), which were based on the daily crop coefficient (Kc) corresponding to different growth stages for each station. The spatiotemporal evolution processes of drought and waterlogging during the growing season in Jilin Province were analysed by the linear regression model, and the impacts of drought and waterlogging conditions on maize yields in Jilin Province under different growing seasons were quantified by means of the correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis methods. The results showed that the effective precipitation during the whole reproductive period showed a spatial distribution pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, with precipitation totals ranging from 335.02 to 677.38 mm, while the spatial distribution of the water demand showed the opposite trend. The south-eastern region of Jilin Province was in a state of water surplus, while the precipitation in other areas could not meet the water requirements of maize, resulting in decreasing drought frequency trends from northwest to southeast and from the early stage to the developmental stage of maize; in addition, increasing trends were observed in the middle and late reproductive stages of maize. The waterlogging frequency in the south-eastern region showed the spatial distribution characteristics of being higher in the early and late reproductive periods and lower in the development period of maize, and the growth rate of the maize-waterlogging frequency was higher in central Jilin Province than in other areas. Moreover, drought showed a more significant negative correlation with the maize yield in Jilin Province, while waterlogging showed a positive correlation. The relative importance results show that drought has a greater impact on maize yields than waterlogging, and the impacts of drought and waterlogging events on maize yields are mainly concentrated in the middle and late growth periods. The findings could inform the development of contingency plans for farmers to minimize crop losses and ensure food security in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer monsoon–affected area is a suitable area for agricultural production in China. Against the background of climate warming, the activity of the summer monsoon is changing significantly. The drought and flood disasters in this region are becoming more and more frequent and have a greater and more serious impact on agricultural production. Therefore, based on observational data from meteorological stations and yield loss data in agriculture caused by drought and flood disasters in summer monsoon–affected areas, this paper studied the characteristics of the hazard of disaster-causing factors, the risk of losses to agriculture caused by droughts and floods, and their correlation. Moreover, it compared and analyzed the variability of drought and flood hazard and risk to agriculture before and after a temperature rise. The results showed that the precipitation in summer monsoon–affected areas is obviously affected by monsoon activities, and there is an overall though non-significant positive correlation between annual average standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the summer monsoon activity index (MI). The drought disaster comprehensive loss rate (DCLR) was generally higher than the flood disaster comprehensive loss rate (FCLR). This shows that the impact of drought on agriculture production is significantly greater than that of floods in this area. The high hazard and risk areas for drought were mainly distributed along the edge of the summer monsoon area and in its vicinity, whereas the high hazard and risk areas for flooding were mainly distributed in the lower reach of the Yangtze, Songhua, and Liaohe Rivers. Among them, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang are high-risk superposition areas of drought and flood disasters. The hazards of drought and flood dominate the risk of disaster loss. Climate warming has significantly expanded the high-hazard and high-risk ranges in China for drought and flood disasters and has also changed their spatial distribution patterns. The high-hazard area for drought has shifted to the monsoon edge area, the high-risk area for drought has moved northward, and both the high-hazard and the high-risk areas for floods have clearly moved southward. The impact of climate warming on drought was more significant than on floods. This study provides important scientific guidance for formulating drought and flood disaster prevention planning and agricultural production development patterns in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration at 23 stations in the Jilin Province, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated. Based on run theory and combined with previous research in Jilin Province, we redefine the drought threshold, with three characteristics, that is, drought duration, intensity, and severity, were identified and extracted. Two- and three-dimensional copula functions were selected to fit and combine drought variables to calculate the joint recurrence period. In order to make the alternative copula model more complete, 25 representative copula functions are selected for the first time to construct the Joint probability distribution function. The Mann–Kendall test was used to examine abrupt changes in Meihekou County. SPEI trends and the joint cumulative probability of drought variables in the Changbai area were analyzed. The results show that: (1) the SPEI in the Meihekou area was unstable around 2000 and 2010, with abrupt change points; (2) the trend of the SPEI in the Changbai Mountains area indicates that the drought occurrence is similar at various timescales; the drought range and duration increase with increasing timescale; and (3) the correlation between the three drought variables is strong and the fit is good. The results of two- and three-dimensional joint recurrence period calculations are similar, with a high probability of recurrence within three years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally. Understanding the changes in vegetation resistance and resilience under aggravated drought is essential for maintaining regional ecosystem stability. In this study, a drought event–vegetation response framework was developed to explore vegetation resistance and resilience changes. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was correlated with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at multiple timescales to screen out the vegetation response time to drought. Then, the SPEI for the response time was detected using run theory to identify drought events during the period 2000–2017. Finally, drought-induced NDVI anomaly changes were identified using a sliding window to explore the changes in resistance and resilience to drought. This study focuses on Jilin province, China, which contains a famous environmentally vulnerable area. The results illustrate that the response time of vegetation to drought is 3 months. The northwest of Jilin province is considered to be drought-vulnerable because it has suffered the most drought events, i.e., 19–21 times, with severities in the range of 2.6–3.2 and durations in the range of 3.6–4.1 months. Grassland shows the weakest resistance and the strongest resilience, and tree cover shows the strongest resistance and the weakest resilience under severe drought disturbance among all vegetation. As the severity and duration of drought increase, the resistance decreases, and the resilience increases. During the growing season, the drought from May to July significantly impacts the vegetation resistance. Drought occurring from June to July has much less impact on resilience. Drought in August to September has less impact on resistance and a more significant impact on resilience. The results of this study may increase our knowledge regarding the response of vegetation to drought and guide ecosystem stability restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of global climate change has intensified, and the frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters has posed a serious challenge to crop production. This article conducts an integrated risk assessment of agricultural drought disasters in the main grain-producing areas of Jilin Province using the temperature and precipitation data of the study area from 1955 to 2020, the sown area of crops, historical disaster data, regional remote sensing images, and statistical yearbook data. The agricultural drought integrated risk assessment model was built around four factors: drought hazards, vulnerability of hazard-bearing bodies, sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environments, and stability of disaster mitigation capacity. The results show that the study area has shown a trend of changing from wet to dry and then wet over the past 66 years, with the occasional occurrence of severe drought, and a decreasing trend at a rate of −0.089. (10a)−1 overall. The integrated risk of drought in the study area exhibits regional clustering, and the overall risk level has some relationship spatially with the regional geological tectonic units, with the high-risk level concentrated in the central area of Song Liao Basin and close to the geological structure of Yishu Graben and the low risk level concentrated in the marginal area of Song Liao Basin. Based on the results of the risk factor analysis, integrated risk prevention suggestions for drought in the main grain-producing areas of Jilin Province were put forward from four aspects. Fine identification and evaluation of high-risk areas of agricultural drought can provide a quantitative basis for effective drought resistance activities in relevant areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a major natural disaster that causes a reduction in rain-fed maize yield. Agricultural drought risk assessment is conducive to improving regional disaster management ability, thereby reducing food security risks and economic losses. Considering the complexity of risk assessment research, an increasing number of researchers are focusing on the multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method. However, the applicability of the MCDM method to agro-meteorological disaster risk assessments is not clear. Therefore, this study comprehensively evaluated hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and emergency response and recovery capability using the TOPSIS and VIKOR models to generate a maize drought risk map in mid-western Jilin Province and ranked the drought risk of each county. The results showed that: (1) maize drought risk in the middle and west of Jilin province showed an increasing trend. Spatially, the risk diminished from west to east. The drought risks faced by Tongyu, Changchun, and Dehui were more severe; (2) the evaluation results of the two models were verified using the yield reduction rate. The VIKOR model was found to be more suitable for agrometeorological drought risk assessments; (3) according to the damage degree of drought disaster to maize, the cluster analysis method was used to divide the study area into three sub-regions: safe, moderate drought, and severe drought. Combined with the characteristics of different regions, suggestions on disaster prevention and mitigation are proposed. The results of this study can provide a basis for formulating strategies to alleviate drought, reduce losses, and ensure the sustainable development of agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of global warming, the frequent occurrence and long-term persistence of drought events have substantial negative effects on agricultural production. As the main maize production area in midwestern Jilin Province, frequent drought and a shortage of irrigation water pose substantial threats to the production of maize. We analyzed the balance of water supply and demand in each growth period and the degree of maize yield affected by drought. The results indicate that the FIO-ESM climate model can effectively simulate the changes in temperature and precipitation, and was highly applicable to the study area. From 1980 to 2020, the drought risk indices for the sowing to jointing, jointing to tasseling, tasseling to milk-ripe, and milk-ripe to maturity stages were 0.62, 0.52, 0.48, and 0.60, respectively. In the future, the chances of a RCP8.5 scenario drought risk and an enhanced RCP4.5 scenario have eased. Spatially, the high-risk areas shift in a "west−central−southwest" pattern. Effective precipitation will decrease in the future, while the increasing water requirement of maize increases the dependence on irrigation water. The irrigation requirement index is more than 70% for all periods, particularly in the milk-ripe to maturity stage. The relative meteorological yields were positively correlated with the CWDI of the whole growth period, with the rate of reduction in maize yield and the yield reduction coefficient of variation at a high level of risk between 1980 and 2020. In the future, the negative impact of drought risk on the yield of maize lessened with no obvious trend in production. In particular, the rate of reduction and reduction coefficient of variation for the RCP8.5 scenario were 1.24 and 1.09, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]