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Optimization of an artificial neural network model through the use of optimization algorithms is the common method employed to search for an optimum solution for a broad variety of real-world problems. One such optimization algorithm is the kidney-inspired algorithm (KA) which has recently been proposed in the literature. The algorithm mimics the four processes performed by the kidneys: filtration, reabsorption, secretion, and excretion. However, a human with reduced kidney function needs to undergo additional treatment to improve kidney performance. In the medical field, the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) test is used to check the health of kidneys. The test estimates the amount of blood that passes through the glomeruli each minute. In this paper, we mimic this kidney function test and the GFR result is used to select a suitable step to add to the basic KA process. This novel imitation is designed for both minimization and maximization problems. In the proposed method, depends on GFR test result which is less than 15 or falls between 15 and 60 or is more than 60 a particular action is performed. These additional processes are applied as required with the aim of improving exploration of the search space and increasing the likelihood of the KA finding the optimum solution. The proposed method is tested on test functions and its results are compared with those of the basic KA. Its performance on benchmark classification and time series prediction problems is also examined and compared with that of other available methods in the literature. In addition, the proposed method is applied to a real-world water quality prediction problem. The statistical analysis of all these applications showed that the proposed method had a ability to improve the optimization outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the analysis of long-term changes in population densities at the regional and macro-regional scale and in the density of metapopulations. The following issues concerning estimations are addressed: chronological resolution of demographic changes, estimation of the weight of values for population density in order to transform the initial values included in the sample into the values that may be compared with each other at the regional scale, calibration of the transformed values into real population densities, and the estimation of the weight of values for population density at the scales of macro-regions and for the density of metapopulations. The proposed methods are tested on demographic changes in Central Europe, Southern Scandinavia, Southeastern Europe, and the Near East. The obtained results represent major trends in demographic development, while the proposed methodology could also be applied in other wide-scale demographic analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collapsing gully erosion is the main important and specific soil erosion type in the red soil region of tropical and subtropical South China. Knowledge of the soil disintegration characteristics within different weathering profiles (surface layer, red soil layer, sandy soil layer and detritus layer) and its relationships with soil particle size distribution and soil properties is important in understanding the mechanism of the forming process and development of the collapsing gully. In this paper, we conducted an experiment on four collapsing gullies located four counties (Tongcheng County, Gan County, Anxi County and Wuhua County) in the hilly granitic region of southern China. The anti-disintegration ability of the different weathering profiles with two different moisture conditions (the air-dried condition and the natural state condition) were determined by the anti-disintegration index (Kc) and measured by the submerging test. The results show that the coarse particles are higher in the sandy soil layer and the detritus layer of collapsing gully than that in the surface layer and the red soil layer, but the finer particles show the inversed order. The Kc values reduce significantly from the surface layer to the detritus layer. In the surface layer and the red soil layer, the Kc values in the natural state condition are much higher than that in the air-dried condition. The results highlight that, the sandy soil layer and the detritus layer are easily to disintegrate compare with the surface layer and the red soil layer, and in the case of low soil water content, the soil in any layer of collapsing gully is easy to disintegrate. The regression equation shows a very significant and positive relationship between the Kc values and the < 0.002 mm particles contents and the SOM (soil organic matter) (p<0.01), and negative relationship between the Kc values and the contents of other soil particle size. The results revealed that the repulsive force produced by compressed air in the soil exceeds the suction between the soil particles is the predominant factor to soil disintegrate rates in the air-dried state condition. Whereas the soil contained a certain amount of water can reduce the degree of disintegration. The results also indicated that the more contents of the cementation agents (like clay and SOM) in the soil of the different layers of collapsing gully, the higher Kc values (it means the more difficult to disintegrate). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Benthic foraminifera, and certainly symbiont-bearing (large) benthic foraminifera are generally considered to have large geographic ranges in combination with significant ecomorphological variation. With the advance of molecular phylogenetic approaches, supported or preceded by detailed morphological studies, it was demonstrated that this view needs to be reevaluated. In this paper I evaluate the morphology of five Marginopora populations from around the Coral Sea by microCT-scanning. I argue that ecomorphological and ontogenetic variation is smaller than geographic variation in morphology. This forms the basis for the description of three new species, M. santoensis nov. spec., M. charlottensis nov. spec., M. orpheusensis nov. spec. Quantitative morphological variation between M. rossi, M. orpheusensis nov. spec. and M. charlottensis nov. spec. is overlapping, but each species has unique morphological characters supporting recognition as new species. Support to distinguish the deep living (M. rossi, M. charlottensis nov. spec., M. orpheusensis nov. spec.) and shallow living (M. vertebralis) Marginopora populations as separate species is strong, but not enough molecular phylogenetic data are available to test the three new deep-living species on the Great Barrier Reef hypothesis. However, detailed understanding of ecophenotypic variation in M. santoensis nov. spec. supports the conclusion that it is unlikely that ecophenotypic variation can explain the morphological variation between the three species. I argue that the number of species in this genus is underestimated, and that there are at least five species in the Coral Sea area alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Butterfly monitoring and Red List programs in Switzerland rely on a combination of observations and collection records to document changes in species distributions through time. While most butterflies can be identified using morphology, some taxa remain challenging, making it difficult to accurately map their distributions and develop appropriate conservation measures. In this paper, we explore the use of the DNA barcode (a fragment of the mitochondrial gene COI) as a tool for the identification of Swiss butterflies and forester moths (Rhopalocera and Zygaenidae). We present a national DNA barcode reference library including 868 sequences representing 217 out of 224 resident species, or 96.9% of Swiss fauna. DNA barcodes were diagnostic for nearly 90% of Swiss species. The remaining 10% represent cases of para- and polyphyly likely involving introgression or incomplete lineage sorting among closely related taxa. We demonstrate that integrative taxonomic methods incorporating a combination of morphological and genetic techniques result in a rate of species identification of over 96% in females and over 98% in males, higher than either morphology or DNA barcodes alone. We explore the use of the DNA barcode for exploring boundaries among taxa, understanding the geographical distribution of cryptic diversity and evaluating the status of purportedly endemic taxa. Finally, we discuss how DNA barcodes may be used to improve field practices and ultimately enhance conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments, development banks, corporations, and nonprofits are increasingly considering the potential contribution of watershed conservation activities to secure clean water for cities and to reduce flood risk. These organizations, however, often lack decision-relevant, initial screening information across multiple cities to identify which specific city-watershed combinations present not only water-related risks but also potentially attractive opportunities for mitigation via natural infrastructure approaches. To address this need, this paper presents a novel methodology for a continental assessment of the potential for watershed conservation activities to improve surface drinking water quality and mitigate riverine and stormwater flood risks in 70 major cities across Latin America. We used publicly available geospatial data to analyze 887 associated watersheds. Water quality metrics assessed the potential for agricultural practices, afforestation, riparian buffers, and forest conservation to mitigate sediment and phosphorus loads. Flood reduction metrics analyzed the role of increasing infiltration, restoring riparian wetlands, and reducing connected impervious surface to mitigate riverine and stormwater floods for exposed urban populations. Cities were then categorized based on relative opportunity potential to reduce identified risks through watershed conservation activities. We find high opportunities for watershed activities to mitigate at least one of the risks in 42 cities, potentially benefiting 96 million people or around 60% of the urbanites living in the 70 largest cities in Latin America. We estimate water quality could be improved for 72 million people in 27 cities, riverine flood risk mitigated for 5 million people in 13 cities, and stormwater flooding mitigated for 44 million people in 14 cities. We identified five cities with the potential to simultaneously enhance water quality and mitigate flood risks, and in contrast, six cities where conservation efforts are unlikely to meaningfully mitigate either risk. Institutions investing in natural infrastructure to improve water security in Latin America can maximize their impact by focusing on specific watershed conservation activities either for cleaner drinking water or flood mitigation in cities identified in our analysis where these interventions are most likely to reduce risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines search and rescue and backcountry medical response constraints in the Canadian Arctic and potential for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to aid in response and preparedness. Semi-structured interviews (n = 18) were conducted with search and rescue responders, Elders, and emergency management officials to collect data on current emergency response and potential for UAV use. UAV test flights (n = 17) were undertaken with community members. We analyzed five years of weather data to examine UAV flight suitability. Numerous challenges face Arctic search and rescue and backcountry emergency response. Changing social and environmental conditions were described as increasing vulnerability to backcountry emergencies. Responders desired additional first aid and emergency training. Legal and weather restrictions were found to limit where, when and who could fly UAVs. UAVs were demonstrated to have potential benefits for hazard monitoring but not for SAR or medical response due to legal restrictions, weather margins, and local capacity. We find that communities are ill-prepared for ongoing SAR demands, let alone a larger disaster. There are numerous limitations to the use of consumer UAVs by Arctic communities. Prevention of backcountry medical emergencies, building resilience to disasters, and first responder training should be prioritized over introducing UAVs to the response system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy-makers require strategies to select a set of sustainability indicators that are useful for monitoring sustainability. For this reason, we have developed a model where sustainability indicators compete for the attention of society. This model has shown to have steady situations where a set of sustainability indicators are stable. To understand the role of the network configuration, in this paper we analyze the network properties of the Entangled Sustainability model. We have used the degree distribution, the clustering coefficient, and the interaction strength distribution as main measures. We also analyze the network properties for scenarios compared against randomly generated scenarios. We found that the stable situations show different characteristics from the unstable transitions present in the model. We also found that the complex emergent feature of sustainability shown in the model is an attribute of the scenarios, however, the randomly generated scenarios do not present the same network properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new model of sleep for mammals. It extends the classic ‘two-process’ model of sleep to account for differences in external circumstances. We apply this model to previously-collected data on elephants and sloths, comparing sleep patterns in the wild with sleep patterns in captivity. We find that the model does very well in explaining sleeping patterns for both types of animals, in both the captive state and in the wild state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genomic selection is a proven technology in animal and plant breeding to accelerate genetic gain, but as yet is to be fully realised in forest tree breeding. This paper examines, through stochastic simulation, the potential benefits of genomic selection (GS) over forward selection (FS) in a typical conifer breeding program. Methods of speeding the deployment of selected material were also considered, including top-grafting onto mature seed orchard ortets, using additional replicates of clones in archives for crossing, and embryogenesis and clonal propagation. Genetic gain per generation was found to increase considerably when the size of the training population was larger (800 c.f. 3000 clones), or when the heritability was higher (0.2 c.f. 0.5). The largest genetic gain, of 24% was achieved where large training populations (3000 clones) and high heritability traits (0.5) were combined. The accuracy of genomic breeding values (GEBVs) increased with the increase in the number of clones in the training population, the heritability of the trait and the density of the SNP markers. Calculated accuracies of simulated GEBVs and genetic gain per unit of time suggested that 2000 clones in the training population is the minimum size for effective genomic selection for conifers. Compared with forward selection, genomic selection with 2000 clones in the training population, and a 60K SNP panel, an increase of 1.58 mm per year in diameter-at-breast-height (DBH) and 2.44 kg/m3 per year for wood density can be expected. After one generation (9-years), this would be equivalent to 14.23 mm and 21.97 kg/m3 for DBH and wood density respectively. Deploying clones of the selected individuals always resulted in higher additional genetic gain than deploying progeny/seedlings. Deploying genetic material selected from genomic selection with top-grafting for early coning appeared to be the best option. Application of genomic selection to conifer breeding programs, combined with deployment tools such as top-grafting and embryogenesis are powerful tools to speed the delivery of genetic gain to the forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying soil nutrient variability and its effect on the growth and development of crops under a traditional tillage mode is the foundation for comprehensively implementing precision agriculture policies at the field scale and ensuring excellent crop management. In this paper, a 28.5 hm2 winter wheat field under the traditional cultivation model in Tianzhuang town of Huantai County was selected as the research area. The mesh point method was utilized for sampling (60×60 m), and the characteristics of soil available nitrogen (AN), available phosphorus (AP) and available potassium (AK) variations in the before sowing, reviving, jointing, and filling stages of winter wheat were analyzed using geostatistical and GIS methods. Moreover, Pearson correlation analysis was used to study the response of wheat growth and development to soil nutrient variations. As the growth stages progressed, 1) each nutrient showed the characteristics of low-high-low and moderate variability. The highest AN and AK contents were found at the reviving stage, while AP reached a turning point at the jointing stage. The order of variability of each nutrient was AN>AP>AK. 2) The nutrient variations first increased and then decreased and showed medium to strong spatial correlation. The three nutrients were strongly spatially correlated in the before sowing stage and moderately spatially correlated during the reviving stage. During the jointing and filling stages, AN had moderate spatial correlation, and AP and AK had strong spatial correlation. The spatial correlation of each nutrient was the weakest in the reviving stage, and the spatial correlation of AN was strongest in the before sowing stage, while the spatial correlations of AP and AK were strongest in the jointing stage. The spatial correlation of each soil nutrient decreased from the before sowing stage to the reviving stage and from the jointing stage to the filling stage, and the spatial correlation increased from the reviving stage to the jointing stage. 3) The soil nutrient content first increased and then decreased, and the grades of the nutrients gradually decreased. 4) The correlation between soil nutrients and wheat growth gradually increased. AN had the highest correlation with wheat growth, followed by AK and AP. The effect of soil nutrients on the growth of wheat at the reviving stage was greater than the effect of nutrients in the current stage. The growth of wheat at the jointing stage was mainly influenced by nutrients in the current stage, while the growth of wheat at the filling stage was influenced by the nutrient contents of both the previous and current stages. Thus, the date of fertilizer supplementation should be postponed properly. In this study, the soil nutrient dynamics and their influence on the growth of wheat during the winter wheat growth period under the traditional field model were well described, and these results could provide a theoretical basis for the precision management of soil nutrients in the northern winter wheat area where the planting environment and cultivation management are relatively uniform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the 2016 Paris Agreement is in many ways an important attainment with the potential to represent a milestone in humanity’s path towards sustainable development, and avoid thus a potential calamitous and destructive future, the achievement of the goals set in the agreement is a long way off. This paper investigates one of the most important worldwide hurdles frustrating the implementation of the policies required to limit environmental degradation and limit pollution, namely the still insufficient public support for the necessary environmental policies and their associated cost. Using a comparative database generated through an experimental study on tax compliance and policy preferences run in five countries (USA, UK, Italy, Sweden and Romania), I will evaluate five explanatory models of the degree to which people support environmentally friendly policies by accepting higher tax burdens and increased collective solidarity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because parental care is costly, conflict between mates over their roles in reproduction seems unavoidable unless they both benefit from parental labour split equally between partners. In the current paper we analyse the division of parental investment in the Blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla), a species that experiences high nest predation. We show that both sexes invest in the incubation of eggs as well as feeding and brooding nestlings at a similar level. We also found that pairs which divided feeding duties more equally produced nestlings that grew faster. Faster nestling development enables earlier fledging in case of predation attempts at the end of nesting period. Thus parents who more evenly participate in provisioning may benefit from higher breeding success. Our findings suggest that in species under high risk of nest predation disparity in parental investment may not provide much benefit to parent’s residual reproductive value and that equality in parental duties constitutes a winning strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we describe why and how to build a local community of practice in scientific programming for life scientists who use computers and programming in their research. A community of practice is a small group of scientists who meet regularly to help each other and promote good practices in scientific programming. While most life scientists are well trained in the laboratory to conduct experiments, good practices with (big) data sets and their analysis are often missing. We propose a model on how to build such a community of practice at a local academic institution, present two real-life examples, and introduce challenges and implemented solutions. We believe that the current data deluge that life scientists face can benefit from the implementation of these small communities. Good practices spread among experimental scientists will foster open, transparent, and sound scientific results beneficial to society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial indicators are used to quantify the state of species and ecosystem status, that is the impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes, as well as to comprehend species ecology. These metrics are thus, determinant to the stakeholder’s decisions on the conservation measures to be implemented. A detailed review of the literature (55 papers) showed that 18 spatial indicators were commonly used in marine ecology. Those indicators were than characterized and studied in detail, based on its application to empirical data (a time series of 35 marine species spatial distributions, sampled either with a random stratified survey or a regular transects surveys). The results suggest that the indicators can be grouped into three classes, that summarize the way the individuals occupy space: occupancy (the area occupied by a species), aggregation (spreading or concentration of species biomass) and quantity dependent (indicators correlated with biomass), whether these are spatially explicit (include the geographic coordinates, e.g. center of gravity) or not. Indicator’s temporal variability was lower than between species variability and no clear effect was observed in relation to sampling design. Species were then classified accordingly to their indicators. One indicator was selected from each of the three categories of indicators, to represent the main axes of species spatial behavior and to interpret them in terms of occupancy-aggregation-quantity relationships. All species considered were then classified according to their relationships among those three axes, into species that under increasing abundancy, primarily increase occupancy or aggregation or both. We suggest to use these relationships along the three-axes as surveillance diagrams to follow the yearly evolution of species distributional patterns in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multi-period (~38,000–6000 cal BP) site of Franchthi Cave, located in the Argolid peninsula of southern mainland Greece, is unique in the Eastern Mediterranean for preserving a long archaeological sequence extending from the Upper Palaeolithic through to the end of the Neolithic period. In this paper, we present new anthracological (carbonized fuel wood waste) evidence from Franchthi Cave with which we reconstruct the changing ecology of woodland vegetation in its environs during the late Pleistocene and the early-mid Holocene. The integrated archaeobotanical record (charred wood and non-wood macro-remains) demonstrates that in the Lateglacial the now-submerged coastal shelf of the southern Argolid peninsula was covered by steppe grassland vegetation dominated by junipers, almonds, cereals and legumes. The rapid climatic amelioration that marked the start of the Holocene brought about the disappearance of juniper and the expansion of deciduous woodland, cereals and lentils. This woodland-grassland biome bears no analogues in the modern and historical vegetation ecology of the Aegean basin. Instead, it is directly comparable to the steppe woodland biomes exploited by late Pleistocene and early Holocene hunter-gatherers in Southwest Asia, and points to the convergent evolution of late Pleistocene and early Holocene plant exploitation strategies between the two regions. Continuous sea-level rise during the early Holocene led to the gradual extinction of this unique palaeohabitat, which acted as the catalyst for the selective introduction of domesticated cereal crops at Franchthi Cave in the early 9th millennium cal BP. Our meta-analysis of the non-wood archaeobotanical data puts into question the concept of the wholesale introduction of a crop “package” by pioneer settler groups arriving from the East. It is proposed instead that selective cereal crop introduction formed part of a complex pattern of sociocultural interactions that brought together indigenous and immigrant groups into new communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When making decisions under uncertainty, individuals may form subjective expectations about probabilities of events relevant for their choice. Accurate measurement of subjective expectations is critical for high-quality data needed to analyze individual behavior. This paper reports the development and validity of a new method of eliciting point subjective expectations in developing countries. We developed a touchscreen-based application that combines an animated slider along with dynamic images that change relative sizes based on the probability indicated by the respondent. We compare our method to the more traditional approach of using beans as visual aids. First, we find that respondents have a sound understanding of basic concepts of probability. Second, we test for equality of the distributions elicited with the different methods and find them highly comparable. Third, we provide evidence that respondents report a more favorable opinion about the slider method and more willingness to complete long surveys using the slider rather than beans. Our findings suggest that the slider could be a viable elicitation method for empirical researchers who aim to collect data on subjective expectations in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital imaging has become one of the most important techniques in environmental monitoring and exploration. In the case of the marine environment, mobile platforms such as autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are now equipped with high-resolution cameras to capture huge collections of images from the seabed. However, the timely evaluation of all these images presents a bottleneck problem as tens of thousands or more images can be collected during a single dive. This makes computational support for marine image analysis essential. Computer-aided analysis of environmental images (and marine images in particular) with machine learning algorithms is promising, but challenging and different to other imaging domains because training data and class labels cannot be collected as efficiently and comprehensively as in other areas. In this paper, we present Machine learning Assisted Image Annotation (MAIA), a new image annotation method for environmental monitoring and exploration that overcomes the obstacle of missing training data. The method uses a combination of autoencoder networks and Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (Mask R-CNN), which allows human observers to annotate large image collections much faster than before. We evaluated the method with three marine image datasets featuring different types of background, imaging equipment and object classes. Using MAIA, we were able to annotate objects of interest with an average recall of 84.1% more than twice as fast as compared to “traditional” annotation methods, which are purely based on software-supported direct visual inspection and manual annotation. The speed gain increases proportionally with the size of a dataset. The MAIA approach represents a substantial improvement on the path to greater efficiency in the annotation of large benthic image collections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy consumption-growth nexus has been widely studied in the empirical literature, though results have been inconclusive regarding the direction, or even the existence, of causality. These inconsistent results can be explained by two important limitations of the literature. First, the use of bivariate models, which fail to detect more complex causal relations, or the ad hoc approach to selecting variables in a multivariate framework; and, second, the use of linear causal models, which are unable to capture more complex nonlinear causal relationships. In this paper, we aim to overcome both limitations by analysing the energy consumption-growth nexus using a Flexible Fourier form due to Enders and Jones (2016). The analysis focuses on the US over the period 1949 to 2014. From our results we can conclude that, where the linear methodology supports the neutrality hypothesis (no causality between energy consumption and growth), the Flexible Fourier form points to the existence of causality from energy consumption to growth. This is contrary to the linear analysis, suggesting that lowering energy consumption would adversely affect US economic growth. Thus, by employing the Flexible Fourier form we find the conclusions can be quite different. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the first U-Pb zircon ages for Ashfall Fossil Beds (Nebraska, USA), a terrestrial Konservat-Lagerstätte mass-death assemblage that is arguably the most diverse of its type and age. The Ashfall tephra was correlated with ignimbrites from the Bruneau-Jarbidge volcanic field (12.7–10.5 Ma) in southwest Idaho based on geochemical analysis. The methods and geochemical data supporting the original age assessment of the ash bed, however, were never published, and there has been a persistent misconception that dateable heavy minerals (e.g., zircon) are absent. Notwithstanding, we recovered abundant zircons from Ashfall Fossil Beds, and from an ash bed ~6 km to the southeast at Grove Lake, Nebraska, and analyzed them through LA-ICP-MS. Our new zircon U-Pb age of 11.86 ± 0.13 Ma substantiates correlation of the Ashfall Fossil Beds deposit to tuffs originating from the Bruneau-Jarbidge caldera (~12.7–10.5 Ma). Our U-Pb zircon age of 6.42 ± 0.06 Ma for the Grove Lake ash bed coincides with supervolcanic activity in the Heise volcanic field (6.6–4.3 Ma) in eastern Idaho. These new dates improve age constraints of strata comprising the Ogallala Group and the important paleontological site. Moreover, we find that detrital and airfall zircons are unevenly distributed in the stratified ash beds we describe herein and presumably in similar deposits worldwide. Therefore, a higher-resolution sampling scheme is necessary in such cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: We describe a method for analyzing the within-household network dynamics of a disease transmission. We apply it to analyze the occurrences of endemic diarrheal disease in Cameroon, Central Africa based on observational, cross-sectional data available from household health surveys. Methods: To analyze the data, we apply formalism of the dynamic SID (susceptible-infected-diseased) process that describes the disease steady-state while adjusting for the household age-structure and environment contamination, such as water contamination. The SID transmission rates are estimated via MCMC method with the help of the so-called synthetic likelihood approach. Results: The SID model is fitted to a dataset on diarrhea occurrence from 63 households in Cameroon. We show that the model allows for quantification of the effects of drinking water contamination on both transmission and recovery rates for household diarrheal disease occurrence as well as for estimation of the rate of silent (unobserved) infections. Conclusions: The new estimation method appears capable of genuinely capturing the complex dynamics of disease transmission across various human, animal and environmental compartments at the household level. Our approach is quite general and can be used in other epidemiological settings where it is desirable to fit transmission rates using cross-sectional data. Software sharing: The R-scripts for carrying out the computational analysis described in the paper are available at . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ooencyrtus spp. (Hymenoptera, Chalcidoidea, Encyrtidae) are important natural enemies of agricultural and forest insect pests, and are distributed worldwide. Their reduced dimensions, highly variable morphological characters and possible effect of wide host range and abiotic factors, make correct identification at the species level particularly difficult. This paper combined molecular, morphological, and biological data to characterize a group of Ooencyrtus spp. emerging from the eggs of the variegated caper bug, Stenozygum coloratum in the east Mediterranean area. COI and ITS2 sequencing revealed the presence of six and five divergent clades, respectively. Three clades were identified as Ooencyrtus telenomicida, Ooencyrtus pityocampae and O. pistaciae. Two clades represent new species which are here described and named Ooencyrtus zoeae and Ooencyrtus mevalbelus. These features were combined with reliable morphological characters to facilitate the separation of these species. A dichotomous key and a new synonymy are proposed. Ooencyrtus pistaciae had two distinct COI clades but only one ITS2 clade. Crossbreeding trials that included Ooencyrtus telenomicida, Ooencyrtus melvabelus sp. nov. and Ooencyrtus zoeae sp. nov. confirmed their reproductive isolation. COI sequences showed 0–0.8% and 4–9% within and between-species genetic differences, respectively. ITS2 showed 0.4–5.9% genetic differences between species, with no genetic differences within species. Haplotype diversity of Israeli and Turkish populations of the various species was 0–0.98 and was particularly low in Ooencyrtus pityocampae, whose Israeli population showed no diversity. The discovery of the Ooencyrtus spp. on the eggs of the caper bug, and their abundance support the idea that the bug can be used as an alternative host for augmentation of populations of these parasitoids in agricultural and forestry systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conserving populations of environmentally vulnerable insect species requires a greater understanding of the factors that determine their abundance and distribution, which requires detailed knowledge of their population and community ecology. Chemical ecological tools such as pheromones can be used for non-destructive monitoring of scarab beetle populations, enabling European countries to detect and, in some cases, map the range of some of these species, proving a valuable technique for monitoring elusive saproxylic beetles. In this paper, we investigated the behavioural and chemical ecology of the noble chafer, Gnorimus nobilis L., a model insect species of conservation concern across a Europe-wide distribution, and a red-listed UK Biodiversity Action Plan priority species. We identified a potential pheromone of adult beetles using electrophysiological recordings, behavioural measurements and field trials in the UK. Gnorimus nobilis is highly unusual in that although both sexes produce, at high metabolic cost, the natural product 2-propyl (E)-3-hexenoate, it only attracts males. This pattern of chemical signalling makes the classification of the compound, based on current semiochemical terminology, somewhat problematic, but in our view, it should be termed an aggregation pheromone as a consequence of the production pattern. Since both sexes emit it, but apparently only males respond positively to it, 2-propyl (E)-3-hexenoate may reflect an intermediate evolutionary stage towards developing into a sex-specific signal. From an applied perspective, our study provides a model for the non-invasive surveillance of cryptic vulnerable insect species, without the need for habitat searching or disturbance, and continuous human monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maintaining crop outputs to feed its large population with limited resources while simultaneously mitigating carbon emissions are great challenges for China. Improving the efficiency of resource use in crop production is important in reducing carbon emissions. This paper constructs a methodological framework combining emergy-based indicator accounting and a nonseparable undesirable output slack-based measurement (SBM) data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. This framework is used to explore the efficiency of inputs and outputs and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction potential for crop production systems, using Zhejiang province, China, as a case study. It is found that an emergy synthesis and a nonseparable undesirable output SBM-DEA framework is compatible with the case study. Crop production in Zhejiang province has relied heavily on an increase in agrochemical inputs to maintain agricultural output. Energy and chemical fertilizer use are determined as the province’s major carbon emissions sources. Although carbon emissions per unit of monetary output has decreased sharply, the carbon emissions per unit emergy output has increased, demonstrating a high carbon intensity reality. The DEA highlighted the differences in crop production efficiency, resource factor redundancy and carbon mitigation potential in the different prefectures of the province. To conclude this research, policies to support low carbon agriculture development, including subsidizing low carbon agriculture technology development and expansion and the cancellation of subsidies to high carbon production factors, such as chemical fertilizer production and sales, are discussed to conclude the research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power demands are set to increase by two-fold within the current century and a high fraction of that demand should be met by carbon free sources. Among the renewable energies, solar energy is among the fastest growing; therefore, a comprehensive and accurate design methodology for solar systems and how they interact with the local environment is vital. This paper addresses the environmental effects of solar panels on an unirrigated pasture that often experiences water stress. Changes to the microclimatology, soil moisture, water usage, and biomass productivity due to the presence of solar panels were quantified. The goal of this study was to show that the impacts of these factors should be considered in designing the solar farms to take advantage of potential net gains in agricultural and power production. Microclimatological stations were placed in the Rabbit Hills agrivoltaic solar arrays, located in Oregon State campus, two years after the solar array was installed. Soil moisture was quantified using neutron probe readings. Significant differences in mean air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and soil moisture were observed. Areas under PV solar panels maintained higher soil moisture throughout the period of observation. A significant increase in late season biomass was also observed for areas under the PV panels (90% more biomass), and areas under PV panels were significantly more water efficient (328% more efficient). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community structures are ubiquitous in various complex networks, implying that the networks commonly be composed of groups of nodes with more internal links and less external links. As an important topic in network theory, community detection is of importance for understanding the structure and function of the networks. Optimizing statistical measures for community structures is one of most popular strategies for community detection in complex networks. In the paper, by using a type of self-loop rescaling strategy, we introduced a set of global modularity functions and a set of local modularity functions for community detection in networks, which are optimized by a kind of the self-consistent method. We carefully compared and analyzed the behaviors of the modularity-based methods in community detection, and confirmed the superiority of the local modularity for detecting community structures on large-size and heterogeneous networks. The local modularity can more quickly eliminate the first-type limit of modularity, and can eliminate or alleviate the second-type limit of modularity in networks, because of the use of the local information in networks. Moreover, we tested the methods in real networks. Finally, we expect the research can provide useful insight into the problem of community detection in complex networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rodent models are invaluable to understanding health and disease in many areas of biomedical research. Unfortunately, many models suffer from lack of phenotype reproducibility. Our laboratory has shown that differences in gut microbiota (GM) can modulate phenotypes of models of colon cancer and inflammatory bowel disease. We and others have also shown that a number of factors associated with rodent research, including vendor, cage system, and bedding can alter GM. The objective of this study was to expand these studies to examine the effect of additional bedding materials and methods of water decontamination on GM diversity and composition. To this end, Crl:CD1 (ICR) mice were housed on corn cob or compressed paper chip bedding and provided water that was decontaminated by four different methods: autoclaving with reverse osmosis, autoclaving with hydrochloric acid, autoclaving with sulfuric acid, and autoclaving alone. Feces was collected at day 0, and at day 28 (endpoint), fecal and cecal samples were collected. DNA was extracted from samples, amplified by PCR using conserved bacterial primer sets and subjected to next generation sequencing. Sequence data were analyzed using Qiime and groups were compared using principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA). Two factor PERMANOVA of cecal GM data revealed significant changes when comparing bedding and water decontamination methods, while no significant effects were noted in the fecal GM data. Subsequent PERMANOVA and PCoA of cecal data revealed that several combinations of bedding and water decontamination methods resulted in differing GM, highlighting the complexity by which environmental factors interact to modulate GM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Onchocerciasis control in Côte d’Ivoire started with aerial insecticide spraying in 1974 and continued with community directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTi) from 1992 to the present. Onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) are co-endemic in 46 of the 81 health districts in the country. Fourteen and 12 districts are endemic for only LF or onchocerciasis, respectively. This paper aims to review the impact of past interventions on onchocerciasis in Côte d’Ivoire between 1975 and 2013, and review plans for disease elimination. Methods: We reviewed microfilaria (MF, skin snip) prevalence and community microfilarial load (CMFL) data from published reports from 53 health districts during two major epidemiological assessment periods. Data from 1975 through 1991 provided information on the impact of vector control, and data from 1992 through 2016 provided information on the impact of CDTi. Results: Weekly aerial insecticide spraying in 8 endemic districts between 1975 and 1991 reduced the overall MF prevalence by 68.1% from 43.5% to 13.9%. The CMFL also decreased in 7 out of 8 surveyed communities by 95.2% from 9.24 MF/snip to 0.44 MF/snip. Ivermectin distribution started in 1992. The coverage targets for control (65% of the total population) was reached in most endemic districts, and some areas achieved 80% coverage. Two sets of surveys were conducted to assess the impact of CDTi. Results from the first repeat surveys showed a significant decrease in overall MF prevalence (by 75.7%, from 41.6% to 10.1%). The second follow-up evaluation showed further improvement in most endemic districts and also documented major reductions in CMFL compared to baseline. Conclusions: Extensive data collected over many years document the very significant impact of interventions conducted by the National Onchocerciasis and other Eyes Diseases Control Programme during challenging times with periods of civil unrest. The Health Ministry has now integrated efforts to control neglected tropical diseases and adopted the goal of onchocerciasis elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas (PAs) are a prominent approach to maintaining and enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem services. A critical question for safeguarding these resources is how PA governance processes and management structures influence their effectiveness. We conduct an impact evaluation of 12 PAs in three Central American countries to assess how processes in management restrictions, management capacity, and decentralization affect the annual change in the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). NDVI varies with greenness that relates to plant production, biomass, and important ecosystem functions related to biodiversity and ecosystem services such as water quality and carbon storage. Any loss of vegetation cover in the form of deforestation or degradation would show up as a decrease in NDVI values over time and gains in vegetation cover and regeneration as an increase in NDVI values. Management restriction categories are based on international classifications of strict versus multiple-use PAs, and capacity and decentralization categories are based on key informant interviews of PA managers. We use matching to create a counterfactual of non-protected observations and a matching estimator and regression to estimate treatment effects of each sub-sample. On average, strict and multiple-use PAs have a significant and positive effect on NDVI compared to non-protected land uses. Both high and low decentralized PAs also positively affect NDVI. High capacity PAs have a positive and significant effect on NDVI, while low capacity PAs have a negative effect on NDVI. Our findings advance knowledge on how governance and management influence PA effectiveness and suggest that capacity may be more important than governance type or management restrictions in maintaining and enhancing NDVI. This paper also provides a guide for future studies to incorporate measures of PA governance and management into impact evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents preliminary results about Turin’s air quality before, during and after the realization of the infrastructure projects for the Turin 2006 XX Winter Olympic Games. We compared the 3-year in-operam (work in progress) period (i.e. 2003–2005, when all infrastructures needed for the organization were built) with the periods before (ante-operam) and after (post-operam): 2000–2002 and 2006–2008, respectively. In particular, we analyzed the concentrations of the primary pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter, PM10) in Turin and Milan. In this way, we could use the measurements from Milan as a control dataset for comparison with the atmospheric pollution conditions in Turin. We found that infrastructural work for the Olympic Games in Turin affected NO2 and PM10 atmospheric concentrations, determining a peak in the average values during the in-operam period (probably due to caterpillar tractor emissions and excavation). This pattern did not emerge from the Milan data, where a decreasing trend can be seen between the ante-operam and the post-operam periods. On the other hand, a negative effect on CO levels was not observed: the decreasing trend, more evident in Turin compared to Milan, can be linked to the expansion during the same period of limited traffic areas created to facilitate the infrastructural work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Participatory planning networks made of government agencies, stakeholders, citizens and scientists are receiving attention as a potential pathway to build resilient landscapes in the face of increased wildfire impacts due to suppression policies and land-use and climate changes. A key challenge for these networks lies in incorporating local knowledge and social values about landscape into operational wildfire management strategies. As large wildfires overcome the suppression capacity of the fire departments, such strategies entail difficult decisions about intervention priorities among different regions, values and socioeconomic interests. Therefore there is increasing interest in developing tools that facilitate decision-making during emergencies. In this paper we present a method to democratize wildfire strategies by incorporating social values about landscape in both suppression and prevention planning. We do so by reporting and critically reflecting on the experience from a pilot participatory process conducted in a region of Catalonia (Spain). There, we built a network of researchers, practitioners and citizens across spatial and governance scales. We combined knowledge on expected wildfires, landscape co-valuation by relevant actors, and citizen participation sessions to design a wildfire strategy that minimized the loss of social values. Drawing on insights from political ecology and transformation science, we discuss what the attempt to democratize wildfire strategies entails in terms of power relationships and potential for social-ecological transformation. Based on our experience, we suggest a trade-off between current wildfire risk levels and democratic management in the fire-prone regions of many western countries. In turn, the political negotiation about the landscape effects of wildfire expert knowledge is shown as a potential transformation pathway towards lower risk landscapes that can re-define agency over landscape and foster community re-learning on fire. We conclude that democratizing wildfire strategies ultimately entails co-shaping the landscapes and societies of the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is affecting food systems globally, with implications for food security, nutrition, and the health of human populations. There are limited data characterizing the current and future consequences of climate change on local food security for populations already experiencing poor nutritional indicators. Indigenous Amazonian populations have a high reported prevalence of nutritional deficiencies. This paper characterizes the food system of the Shawi of the Peruvian Amazon, climatic and non-climatic drivers of their food security vulnerability to climate change, and identifies potential maladaptation trajectories. Methods and findings: Semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24), three photovoice workshops (n = 17 individuals), transect walks (n = 2), a food calendar exercise, and two community dissemination meetings (n = 30 individuals), were conducted within two Shawi communities in Balsapuerto District in the Peruvian Loreto region between June and September of 2014. The Shawi food system was based on three main food sub-systems (forest, farming and externally-sourced). Shawi reported collective, gendered, and emotional notions related to their food system activities. Climatic and non-climatic drivers of food security vulnerability among Shawi participants acted at proximal and distal levels, and mutually reinforced key maladaptation trajectories, including: 1) a growing population and natural resource degradation coupled with limited opportunities to increase incomes, and 2) a desire for education and deforestation reinforced by governmental social and food interventions. Conclusion: A series of maladaptive trajectories have the potential to increase social and nutritional inequities for the Shawi. Transformational food security adaptation should include consideration of Indigenous perceptions and priorities, and should be part of Peruvian food and socioeconomic development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last years, the new science of cities has been established as a fertile quantitative approach to systematically understand the urban phenomena. One of its main pillars is the proposition that urban systems display universal scaling behavior regarding socioeconomic, infrastructural and individual basic services variables. This paper discusses the extension of the universality proposition by testing it against a broad range of urban metrics in a developing country urban system. We present an exploration of the scaling exponents for over 60 variables for the Brazilian urban system. Estimating those exponents is challenging from the technical point of view because the Brazilian municipalities’ definition follows local political criteria and does not regard characteristics of the landscape, density, and basic utilities. As Brazilian municipalities can deviate significantly from urban settlements, urban-like municipalities were selected based on a systematic density cut-off procedure and the scaling exponents were estimated for this new subset of municipalities. To validate our findings we compared the results for overlaying variables with other studies based on alternative methods. It was found that the analyzed socioeconomic variables follow a superlinear scaling relationship with the population size, and most of the infrastructure and individual basic services variables follow expected sublinear and linear scaling, respectively. However, some infrastructural and individual basic services variables deviated from their expected regimes, challenging the universality hypothesis of urban scaling. We propose that these deviations are a product of top-down decisions/policies. Our analysis spreads over a time-range of 10 years, what is not enough to draw conclusive observations, nevertheless we found hints that the scaling exponent of these variables are evolving towards the expected scaling regime, indicating that the deviations might be temporally constrained and that the urban systems might eventually reach the expected scaling regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global trade system can be viewed as a dynamic ecosystem in which exporters struggle for resources: the markets in which they export. We can think that the aim of an exporter is to gain the entirety of a market share (say, car imports from the United States). This is similar to the objective of an organism in its attempt to monopolize a given subset of resources in an ecosystem. In this paper, we adopt a multilayer network approach to describe this struggle. We use longitudinal, multiplex data on trade relations, spanning several decades. We connect two countries with a directed link if the source country’s appearance in a market correlates with the target country’s disappearing, where a market is defined as a country-product combination in a given decade. Each market is a layer in the network. We show that, by analyzing the countries’ network roles in each layer, we are able to classify them as out-competing, transitioning or displaced. This classification is a meaningful one: when testing the future export patterns of these countries, we show that out-competing countries have distinctly stronger growth rates than the other two classes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

McPherson’s Blau space and affiliation ecology model is a powerful tool for analyzing the ecological competition among social entities, such as organizations, along a combination of sociodemographic characteristics of their members. In this paper we introduce the R-based Graphical User Interface (GUI) package Blaunet, an integrated set of tools to calculate, visualize, and analyze the statuses of individuals and social entities in Blau space, parameterized by multiple sociodemographic traits as dimensions. The package is able to calculate the Blau statuses at the nodal, dyadic, and meso levels based on three types of information: sociodemographic characteristics, group affiliations (e.g., membership in groups/organizations), and network ties. To facilitate this, Blaunet has the following five main capabilities, it can: 1) identify a list of possible salient dimensions; 2) calculate, plot, and analyze niches for social entities by measuring the social distance along the salient dimensions between individuals affiliated with them; 3) generate Blau bubbles for individuals, thereby allowing the study of interpersonal influence of similar others even with limited or no network information; 4) capture niche dynamics cross-sectionally by calculating the intensity of exploitation from the carrying capacity and the membership rate; and 5) analyze the niche movement longitudinally by estimating the predicted niche movement equations. We illustrate these capabilities of Blaunet with example datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During 2011 a large outbreak of typhoid fever affected an estimated 1430 people in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo. The outbreak started in military camps in the city but then spread to the general population. This paper reports the results of an ecological analysis and a case-control study undertaken to examine water and other possible transmission pathways. Attack rates were determined for health areas and risk ratios were estimated with respect to spatial exposures. Approximately 15 months after the outbreak, demographic, environmental and exposure data were collected for 320 cases and 640 controls residing in the worst affected areas, using a structured interview questionnaire. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated. Complete data were available for 956 respondents. Residents of areas with water supplied via gravity on the mains network were at much greater risk of disease acquisition (risk ratio = 6.20, 95%CI 3.39–11.35) than residents of areas not supplied by this mains network. In the case control study, typhoid was found to be associated with ever using tap water from the municipal supply (OR = 4.29, 95% CI 2.20–8.38). Visible urine or faeces in the latrine was also associated with increased risk of typhoid and having chosen a water source because it is protected was negatively associated. Knowledge that washing hands can prevent typhoid fever, and stated habit of handwashing habits before cooking or after toileting was associated with increased risk of disease. However, observed associations between handwashing or plate-sharing with disease risk could very likely be due to recall bias. This outbreak of typhoid fever was strongly associated with drinking water from the municipal drinking water supply, based on the descriptive and analytic epidemiology and the finding of high levels of faecal contamination of drinking water. Future outbreaks of potentially waterborne disease need an integrated response that includes epidemiology and environmental microbiology during early stages of the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blue whales are sighted every year around the Azores islands, which apparently provide an important seasonal foraging area. In this paper we aim to characterize habitat preferences and analyze the temporal distribution of blue whales around São Miguel Island. To do so, we applied Generalized Additive Models to an opportunistic cetacean occurrence dataset and remotely sensed environmental data on bathymetry, sea surface temperature, chlorophyll concentration and altimetry. We provide a brief description of the oceanography of the area, emphasizing its high spatio-temporal variability. In order to capture this dynamism, we used environmental data with two different spatial resolutions (low and high) and three different temporal resolutions (daily, weekly and monthly), thus accounting for both long-term oceanographic events such as the spring bloom, and shorter-term features such as eddies or fronts. Our results show that blue whales have a well-defined ecological niche around the Azores. They usually cross the archipelago from March to June and habitat suitability is highest in dynamic areas (with high Eddy Kinetic Energy) characterized by convergence or aggregation zones where productivity is enhanced. Multi-scale studies are useful to understand the ecological niche and habitat requirements of highly mobile species that can easily react to short-term changes in the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the impact of an endemic fossorial animal, plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae), on soil properties and N2O flux at the Zoige Wetland. Pika burrow and control sites without disturbance by pika were selected to measure the soil water content, bulk density, soil organic matter (SOM), NH4-N content and NO3-N content in August 2012. N2O fluxes were measured with static opaque chambers at these sites in June and August 2012. Pika burrowing altered soil aeration by transferring deeper soil to the surface and by constructing underground burrows, which significantly increased bulk density, and reduced soil water content, SOM and NH4-N content at 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm soil depth. N2O flux had a significant correlation with bulk density, SOM and NH4-N content. Pika burrowing significantly influenced N2O flux by increasing N2O flux at the control site from near zero to 0.063±0.011 mg m-2 h-1. Our findings described how pika burrowing influences the soil traits and significantly increases the principal greenhouse gas N2O emission. As plateau pika was commonly considered as a pest, our findings give a novel clue to effectively manage populations of plateau pika on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the perspective of greenhouse gas emission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Slime mold species in the genus Dictyostelium are considered to have a close relationship with non-parasitic nematodes; they are sympatric in soils and can exhibit interspecific competition for food. We investigated whether this relationship extends to a plant-parasitic nematode that is active in the rhizosphere and has broad host specificity, damaging crops worldwide. Using a novel assay to examine the interaction between the cellular slime mold, Dictyostelium discoideum, and the plant-parasitic nematodes, Meloidogyne spp., we found that cellular slime molds can repel plant parasitic nematodes. Specifically, the repulsion activity was in response to chemical compounds released by cellular slime mold fruiting bodies. Under laboratory conditions, these soluble chemical extracts from fruiting bodies of D. discoideum showed repulsion activity strong enough to protect plant roots. The fruiting body cell extracts repelled but were not toxic to the plant-parasitic nematodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rhodnius nasutus, a vector of the etiological agent Trypanosoma cruzi, is one of the epidemiologically most relevant triatomine species of the Brazilian Caatinga, where it often colonizes rural peridomestic structures such as chicken coops and occasionally invades houses. Historical colonization and determination of its genetic diversity and population structure may provide new information towards the improvement of vector control in the region. In this paper we present thoughtful analyses considering the phylogeography and demographic history of R. nasutus in the Caatinga. Methodology/Principal findings: A total of 157 R. nasutus specimens were collected from Copernicia prunifera palm trees in eight geographic localities within the Brazilian Caatinga biome, sequenced for 595-bp fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene (cyt b) and genotyped for eight microsatellite loci. Sixteen haplotypes were detected in the cyt b sequences, two of which were shared between different localities. Molecular diversity indices exhibited low diversity and a haplotype network revealed low divergence among R. nasutus sequences, with two central haplotypes shared by five of the eight populations analyzed. The demographic model that better represented R. nasutus population dynamics was the exponential growth model. Results of the microsatellite data analyses indicated that the entire population is comprised of four highly differentiated groups, with no obvious contemporary geographic barriers that could explain the population substructure detected. A complex pattern of migration was observed, in which a western Caatinga population seems to be the source of emigrants to the eastern populations. Conclusions/Significance: R. nasutus that inhabit C. prunifera palms do not comprise a species complex. The species went through a population expansion at 12–10 ka, during the Holocene, which coincides with end of the largest dry season in South America. It colonized the Caatinga in a process that occurred from west to east in the region. R. nasutus is presently facing an important ecological impact caused by the continuous deforestation of C. prunifera palms in northeast Brazil. We hypothesize that this ecological disturbance might contribute to an increase in the events of invasion and colonization of human habitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The viral spread of digital misinformation has become so severe that the World Economic Forum considers it among the main threats to human society. This spread have been suggested to be related to the similarly problematized phenomenon of “echo chambers”, but the causal nature of this relationship has proven difficult to disentangle due to the connected nature of social media, whose causality is characterized by complexity, non-linearity and emergence. This paper uses a network simulation model to study a possible relationship between echo chambers and the viral spread of misinformation. It finds an “echo chamber effect”: the presence of an opinion and network polarized cluster of nodes in a network contributes to the diffusion of complex contagions, and there is a synergetic effect between opinion and network polarization on the virality of misinformation. The echo chambers effect likely comes from that they form the initial bandwagon for diffusion. These findings have implication for the study of the media logic of new social media. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responding to modern day environmental challenges for societal well-being and prosperity necessitates the integration of science into policy and practice. This has spurred the development of novel institutional structures among research organisations aimed at enhancing the impact of environmental science on policy and practice. However, such initiatives are seldom evaluated and even in cases where evaluations are undertaken, the results are rarely made publicly available. As such there is very little empirically grounded guidance available to inform other organisations in this regard. To help address this, the aim of this study is to evaluate the Baltic Eye Project at Stockholm University–a unique team consisting of researchers from different fields, science communicators, journalists and policy analysts–working collectively to support evidence-informed decision-making relating to the sustainable management of the Baltic Sea environment. Specifically, through qualitative interviews, we (1) identify the impacts achieved by the Baltic Eye Project; (2) understand the challenges and barriers experienced throughout the Baltic Eye Project; and (3) highlight the key features that are needed within research organisations to enhance the impact of science on policy and practice. Results show that despite only operating for three years, the Baltic Eye Project has achieved demonstrable impacts on a range of levels: impacts on policy and practice, impacts to individuals working within the organisation and impacts to the broader University. We also identify a range of barriers that have limited impacts to date, such as a lack of clear goals at the establishment of the Baltic Eye Project and existing metrics of academic impact (e.g. number of publications). Finally, based on the experiences of employees at the Baltic Eye Project, we identify the key organisational, individual, financial, material, practical, political, and social features of university-based boundary organisations that have impact on policy and practice. In doing so this paper provides empirically-derived guidance to help other research organisations increase their capacity to achieve tangible impacts on environmental policy and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the prevalent use of nest-site selection studies to define habitat quality for birds, many studies relying on use-availability analysis have found poor correlations between selected vegetation and reproductive success. Using 3 years of data from northeastern British Columbia (2007–2009), we determined timing of breeding from hatching dates and contrasted the nest-site selection of earlier (n = 22) with later-nesting pairs (n = 36) of yellow-bellied sapsuckers (Sphyrapicus varius), because early breeders were expected to be more reproductively successful. We then compared these choices with those identified from use-availability analysis, and determined whether reproductive performance (fledgling production) was related to selected vegetation. None of the vegetation characteristics selected for nest sites from available vegetation predicted reproductive performance. Earlier-nesting pairs fledged more young on average than later breeders (4.41, SE = 0.18 versus 3.92, SE = 0.16), and chose less decayed aspen trees for nesting, that were surrounded on average by 3 times the number of food trees (paper birch, Betula papyrifera). Potential preference for birch trees was masked in the use-availability analysis, because the selection rate was dominated by the choices of the larger number of later-nesting pairs. Similarly, the majority (69%) of nest cavity entrances faced south, but earlier breeding pairs excavated northward-oriented cavities more frequently than did later breeding pairs, which strongly predicted their higher fledgling production. To our knowledge, our study is the first to compare the choices of early versus later breeders to test the efficacy of use-availability studies in defining habitat quality. We found that use-availability analysis was inadequate for determining vegetation characteristics related to reproductive performance. In contrast, measuring the distinct preferences of earlier breeders resulted in an improved ability to measure habitat quality and explain the spatial distribution of yellow-bellied sapsuckers, a keystone species of the mixedwood boreal forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban agriculture has become a common form of urban land use in European cities linked to multiple environmental, social and economic benefits, as well as to diversified forms (from self-production allotments to high-tech companies). Social acceptance will determine the development of urban agriculture and specific knowledge on citizens’ perception is required in order to set the basis for policy-making and planning. The ecosystem services provided by urban agriculture can be determinant in this process. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the social acceptance and the perceived ecosystem services of urban agriculture in the city of Bologna (Italy), as an example of a Southern European city. In particular, we evaluated the preferences for urban land uses, for different typologies of urban agriculture and for the resulting products, the perceived provision of ecosystem services and the willingness to engage in new initiatives. A survey that investigated these topics (including open questions, closed questions and Likert-scale evaluation) was performed on the citizens of Bologna (n = 380) between October and November 2016. Results showed that urban agriculture is widely accepted by the inhabitants of Bologna, particularly regarding vegetable production. Although intensive farming systems were the least preferred forms to be implemented in Bologna, citizens highly accepted a large variety of urban agriculture goods, with preference for those obtained from plants as compared to animal products. The willingness-to-pay for urban food products was mostly the same as for conventional ones, although the participants recognised the social values, proximity and quality of the former. Socio-cultural ecosystem services were perceived as more valuable than environmental ones. Policy-making recommendations can be extracted from the results to facilitate the development of urban agriculture plans and policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective ecosystem-based management requires estimates of abundance and population trends of species of interest. Trend analyses are often limited due to sparse or short-term abundance estimates for populations that can be logistically difficult to monitor over time. Therefore it is critical to assess regularly the quality of the metrics in long-term monitoring programs. For a monitoring program to provide meaningful data and remain relevant, it needs to incorporate technological improvements and the changing requirements of stakeholders, while maintaining the integrity of the data. In this paper we critically examine the monitoring program for the Australian fur seal (AFS) Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus as an example of an ad-hoc monitoring program that was co-ordinated across multiple stakeholders as a range-wide census of live pups in the Austral summers of 2002, 2007 and 2013. This 5-yearly census, combined with historic counts at individual sites, successfully tracked increasing population trends as signs of population recovery up to 2007. The 2013 census identified the first reduction in AFS pup numbers (14,248 live pups, -4.2% change per annum since 2007), however we have limited information to understand this change. We analyse the trends at breeding colonies and perform a power analysis to critically examine the reliability of those trends. We then assess the gaps in the monitoring program and discuss how we may transition this surveillance style program to an adaptive monitoring program than can evolve over time and achieve its goals. The census results are used for ecosystem-based modelling for fisheries management and emergency response planning. The ultimate goal for this program is to obtain the data we need with minimal cost, effort and impact on the fur seals. In conclusion we identify the importance of power analyses for interpreting trends, the value of regularly assessing long-term monitoring programs and proper design so that adaptive monitoring principles can be applied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the structure of the Japanese production network, which includes one million firms and five million supplier-customer links. This study finds that this network forms a tightly-knit structure with a core giant strongly connected component (GSCC) surrounded by IN and OUT components constituting two half-shells of the GSCC, which we call awalnut structure because of its shape. The hierarchical structure of the communities is studied by the Infomap method, and most of the irreducible communities are found to be at the second level. The composition of some of the major communities, including overexpressions regarding their industrial or regional nature, and the connections that exist between the communities are studied in detail. The findings obtained here cause us to question the validity and accuracy of using the conventional input-output analysis, which is expected to be useful when firms in the same sectors are highly connected to each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioenergy crops are an attractive option for use in energy production. A good plant candidate for bioenergy applications should produce a high amount of biomass and resist harsh environmental conditions. Carbon-based nanomaterials (CBNs) have been described as promising seed germination and plant growth regulators. In this paper, we tested the impact of two CBNs: graphene and multi-walled carbon nanotubes (CNTs) on germination and biomass production of two major bioenergy crops (sorghum and switchgrass). The application of graphene and CNTs increased the germination rate of switchgrass seeds and led to an early germination of sorghum seeds. The exposure of switchgrass to graphene (200 mg/l) resulted in a 28% increase of total biomass produced compared to untreated plants. We tested the impact of CBNs on bioenergy crops under salt stress conditions and discovered that CBNs can significantly reduce symptoms of salt stress imposed by the addition of NaCl into the growth medium. Using an ion selective electrode, we demonstrated that the concentration of Na+ ions in NaCl solution can be significantly decreased by the addition of CNTs to the salt solution. Our data confirmed the potential of CBNs as plant growth regulators for non-food crops and demonstrated the role of CBNs in the protection of plants against salt stress by desalination of saline growth medium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates suitability of supervised machine learning classification methods for classification of biomes using pollen datasets. We assign modern pollen samples from Africa and Arabia to five biome classes using a previously published African pollen dataset and a global ecosystem classification scheme. To test the applicability of traditional and machine-learning based classification models for the task of biome prediction from high dimensional modern pollen data, we train a total of eight classification models, including Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification Decision Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine. The ability of each model to predict biomes from pollen data is statistically tested on an independent test set. The Random Forest classifier outperforms other models in its ability correctly classify biomes given pollen data. Out of the eight models, the Random Forest classifier scores highest on all of the metrics used for model evaluations and is able to predict four out of five biome classes to high degree of accuracy, including arid, montane, tropical and subtropical closed and open systems, e.g. forests and savanna/grassland. The model has the potential for accurate reconstructions of past biomes and awaits application to fossil pollen sequences. The Random Forest model may be used to investigate vegetation changes on both long and short time scales, e.g. during glacial and interglacial cycles, or more recent and abrupt climatic anomalies like the African Humid Period. Such applications may contribute to a better understanding of past shifts in vegetation cover and ultimately provide valuable information on drivers of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With an estimate of around 9,000 species, the Neotropical region hosts the greatest diversity of freshwater fishes of the world. Genetic surveys have the potential to unravel isolated and unique lineages and may result in the identification of undescribed species, accelerating the cataloguing of extant biodiversity. In this paper, molecular diversity within the valuable and widespread Neotropical genus Hoplias was assessed by means of DNA Barcoding. The geographic coverage spanned 40 degrees of latitude from French Guiana to Argentina. Our analyses revealed 22 mitochondrial lineages fully supported by means of Barcode Index Number, Automatic Barcode Gap Discovery and phylogenetic analyses. This mtDNA survey revealed the existence of 15 fully supported mitochondrial lineages within the once considered to be the continentally distributed H. malabaricus. Only four of them are currently described as valid species however, leaving 11 mitochondrial lineages currently “masked” within this species complex. Mean genetic divergence was 13.1%. Barcoding gap analysis discriminated 20 out of the 22 lineages tested. Phylogenetic analyses showed that all taxonomically recognized species form monophyletic groups. Hoplias malabaricus sensu stricto clustered within a large clade, excluding the representatives of the La Plata River Basin. In the H. lacerdae group, all species but H. curupira showed a cohesive match between taxonomic and molecular identification. Two different genetic lineages were recovered for H. aimara. Given the unexpected hidden mitochondrial diversity within H. malabaricus, the COI sequence composition of specimens from Suriname (the type locality), identified as H. malabaricus sensu stricto, is of major importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mathematical modeling has been recognized as an important tool to advance the understanding of the synergetic effect of coupled disturbances (stressors) on the forest population dynamics. Nonetheless, most of the modeling done on disturbances focus on individual disturbance agents and the modeling research on disturbances interactions uses predominantly descriptive statistical processes. This state of art points to the need for continuing modeling efforts not only for addressing the link among multiple disturbances but also for incorporating disturbance processes. In this paper, we present an age-structured forest-beetle mechanistic model with tree harvesting. We investigate three scenarios involving the beetles equilibrium states (no beetles, beetles in endemic and epidemic states). Optimal control theory was applied to study three different benefit functions involving healthy and dead trees. The numerical simulations show that maintaining the beetle infestation at endemic level instead of eliminating all the beetles is sufficient to ensure the forest has trees with all ages. Furthermore, the numerical simulations shows that the harvesting benefit decreases as the number of beetles increases in all cases except when the benefit functional includes a cost (ecological and harvest implementation) and the value of wood is equal across all trees (healthy harvested trees, trees killed by beetles, and trees that die naturally). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]