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Eliminating or reducing the federal charitable deduction can have serious impacts on the level of charitable donations. Tax price elasticity estimates from a multivariate sample selection model indicate that changing the deduction to a 12% tax credit would have reduced individual donations in 2012 by 18.9% if applied to itemizing taxpayers and by 10.5% if extended to nonitemizers. Elimination of the deduction would have led to a 35% reduction in individual charitable donations. Even if coupled with cuts in marginal tax rates, eliminating the charitable deduction will still likely result in substantial reductions given the inelastic income elasticities of charitable donations. The estimates justify the ardent opposition of many in the nonprofit sector to the more radical proposals for changing the tax treatment of charitable contributions. (JEL D34, C34), I. INTRODUCTION The empirical literature on charitable donations is comprised largely of studies that examine total giving (e.g., Andreoni, Gale, and Scholz 1996; Bakija and Heims 2011; Brown and Lankford [...]

This paper hypothesizes that if day-ahead markets for electricity are efficient, then the day-ahead prices will reflect the processed information and expectations of all market participants regarding the next day's electricity load and thus the prices may be useful in actually predicting the next day's load. We test this hypothesis using data for the PG&E aggregation area in the California ISO. The results provide evidence of a positive and significant relationship between the hourly day-ahead electricity price (relative to the natural gas price) and the subsequent actual hourly load. The reported relationship is sufficiently robust to produce a forecast based on the day-ahead hourly price relative to the price of natural gas, some binary variables, and a number of estimated ARMA disturbances that is considerably more accurate than the ISO's day-ahead forecast. Keywords: Electricity markets, Electricity prices, Market efficiency, Load forecasting, Smart grid, California ISO, 1. INTRODUCTION To neoclassical economists, market prices are the primary signals ensuring efficient resource allocation. While many might concede that markets 'work' in the abstract, events like the California power [...]