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• The impact of passive measures on heating and cooling was assessed using MLR. • A bioclimatic potential analysis is helpful for future-proofing of single-family homes. • The opaque envelope U-value was the most relevant for the total and heating energy use. • The window area was the most relevant for the cooling energy use in present and future. • The relevance diagrams of passive parameters for the energy use were introduced. In the early phases of building design, it is essential to quantify the relevance of passive design measures in order to assure the desired thermal performance of buildings throughout their lifespan. In the present research work, the authors investigated the relevance of the selected passive design measures for heating and cooling energy use of single-family detached buildings at five European locations. To this end, a multiple linear regression analysis was performed, and least-squares estimates were used to identify the most relevant passive design measures under current and three future periods. The statistical analysis showed that the importance of passive design measures would change under the projected global warming effects. In general, the most relevant for the heating energy use of the analysed building models is the opaque envelope U value. Besides effective shading, the most relevant parameter affecting the cooling energy use is the window-to-floor ratio. Furthermore, relevance diagrams for the influence of passive design parameters on the resulting energy use under the climate change scenario and specific U values of the opaque envelope were defined. Building designers and policymakers can use them as design-support tool to find appropriate ways of converting the number of unknowns in future climate into information for designers and decision-makers to assure low vulnerability of the built environment to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Low energy use of single-family buildings can be assured solely by passive design. • Passive adaptation only partly counterbalances climate change effects on energy use. • Total energy use will decrease in cold and temperate and increase in warm climates. • The most effective long-term climate adaptation measure is applying smaller windows. • New buildings should be designed according to mid-term optima (2020/2050 period). The presented study aims to clarify the implications of passive design measures on heating and cooling energy use of single-family residential buildings under European representative climates. In order to address this matter, different values of thermal transmittance (opaque and transparent), window to floor ratio, window distribution, shape factor, diurnal heat storage capacity, external opaque surface solar absorptivity and natural ventilation cooling rates were combined in 496,800 building energy models, which were simulated at eight locations. Because buildings are in use for many decades, the energy use simulations were made considering the projected climate change up to the end of the 21st century. The results delivered a set of the most effective passive design measures for achieving low energy use in buildings regarding climate type and period. A lower window to floor ratio was identified as the most universally applicable design measure to counterbalance the projected effect of a warming climate. In contrast, other measures vary according to climate type and studied period. Furthermore, it was concluded that it is difficult to neutralise the projected climate change effects on buildings' energy use, even when applying the best performing combination of passive design measures. However, reasonably low energy use can still be assured solely by passive building design, especially in oceanic, warm, and some temperate climate locations. Therefore, the identified trends in energy use and passive design measures represent the foundation for strategies and guidelines aimed at future-proof energy-efficient buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]