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In recent months, Paraguay has been grappled with a notable monkeypox outbreak, straining its healthcare infrastructure. The sudden spike in cases underlines the imperative need for a comprehensive understanding of the virus's dynamics, enabling the formulation of robust containment measures. To address this challenge, our team joined forces with the Central Public Health Laboratory of Asunción and the Pan-American Health Organization. Through this collaboration, we employed portable whole-genome sequencing combined with phylodynamic analysis to examine the MPXV strains circulating in Paraguay. Our genomic monitoring approach has produced the first 30 whole-genome sequences from Paraguay, all of which were identified under lineage IIb. Interestingly, our data suggest that the origin of the monkeypox virus in Paraguay at the beginning of 2022 can be traced back to Brazil. This introduction subsequently catalyzed further community spread that was further exacerbated by several independent introduction events as time progressed. These findings not only shed light on the transmission patterns of the virus but also highlight the pivotal role such insights play in sculpting effective response strategies and driving impactful public health measures. Furthermore, our findings strongly advocate intensified surveillance at international borders, ensuring swift detection and proactive countermeasures against potential outbreaks in the future.

The spread of Chikungunya virus is a major public health concern in the Americas. There were >120,000 cases and 51 deaths in 2023, of which 46 occurred in Paraguay. Using a suite of genomic, phylodynamic, and epidemiologic techniques, we characterized the ongoing large chikungunya epidemic in Paraguay.

Brazil experienced a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic in 2019, highlighting a continuous struggle with effective control and public health preparedness. Using Oxford Nanopore sequencing, we led field and classroom initiatives for the monitoring of DENV in Brazil, generating 227 novel genome sequences of DENV1-2 from 85 municipalities (2015-2019). This equated to an over 50% increase in the number of DENV genomes from Brazil available in public databases. Using both phylogenetic and epidemiological models we retrospectively reconstructed the recent transmission history of DENV1-2. Phylogenetic analysis revealed complex patterns of transmission, with both lineage co-circulation and replacement. We identified two lineages within the DENV2 BR-4 clade, for which we estimated the effective reproduction number and pattern of seasonality. Overall, the surveillance outputs and training initiative described here serve as a proof-of-concept for the utility of real-time portable sequencing for research and local capacity building in the genomic surveillance of emerging viruses.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging Flavivirus that have recently caused an outbreak in Brazil and rapid spread in several countries. In this study, the consequences of ZIKV evolution on protein recognition by the host immune system have been analyzed. Evolutionary analysis was combined with homology modeling and T-B cells epitope predictions. Two separate clades, the African one with the Uganda sequence, as the most probable ancestor, and the second one containing all the most recent sequences from the equatorial belt were identified. Brazilian strains clustered all together and closely related to the French Polynesia isolates. A strong presence of a negatively selected site in the envelope gene (Env) protein was evidenced, suggesting a probable purging of deleterious polymorphisms in functionally important genes. Our results show relative conservancy of ZIKV sequences when envelope and other non-structural proteins (NS3 and NS5) are analyzed by homology modeling. However, some regions within the consensus sequence of NS5 protein and to a lesser extent in the envelope protein, show localized high mutation frequency corresponding to a considerable alteration in protein stability. In terms of viral immune escape, envelope protein is under a higher selective pressure than NS5 and NS3 proteins for HLA class I and II molecules. Moreover, envelope mutations that are not strictly related to T-cell immune responses are mostly located on the surface of the protein in putative B-cell epitopes, suggesting an important contribution of B cells in the immune response as well.

We examined the asymptomatic rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Delta and Omicron waves in the city of São Paulo. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at strategic points of the city (open-air markets, bus terminals, airports) for SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing. Applying the questionnaire, the symptomatic individuals were excluded, and only asymptomatic cases were analyzed. During the Delta wave, a total of 4315 samples were collected, whereas 2372 samples were collected during the first Omicron wave. The incidence of the asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 0.6% during the Delta wave and 0.8% during the Omicron wave. No statistical differences were found in the threshold amplification cycle. However, there was a statistical difference observed in the sublineage distribution between asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals. Our study determined the incidence of asymptomatic infection by monitoring individuals who remained symptom-free, thereby providing a reliable evaluation of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriage. Our findings reveal a relatively low proportion of asymptomatic cases, which could be attributed to our rigorous monitoring protocol for the presence of clinical symptoms. Investigating asymptomatic infection rates is crucial to develop and implement effective disease control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For endemic pathogens, seroprevalence mimics overall exposure and is minimally influenced by the time that recent infections take to seroconvert. Simulating spatially-explicit and stochastic outbreaks, we set out to explore how, for emerging pathogens, the mix of exponential growth in infection events and a constant rate for seroconversion events could lead to real-time significant differences in the total numbers of exposed versus seropositive. We find that real-time seroprevalence of an emerging pathogen can underestimate exposure depending on measurement time, epidemic doubling time, duration and natural variation in the time to seroconversion among hosts. We formalise mathematically how underestimation increases non-linearly as the host's time to seroconversion is ever longer than the pathogen's doubling time, and how more variable time to seroconversion among hosts results in lower underestimation. In practice, assuming that real-time seroprevalence reflects the true exposure to emerging pathogens risks overestimating measures of public health importance (e.g. infection fatality ratio) as well as the epidemic size of future waves. These results contribute to a better understanding and interpretation of real-time serological data collected during the emergence of pathogens in infection-naive host populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a worldwide concern about the new coronavirus 2019‐nCoV as a global public health threat. In this article, we provide a preliminary evolutionary and molecular epidemiological analysis of this new virus. A phylogenetic tree has been built using the 15 available whole genome sequences of 2019‐nCoV, 12 whole genome sequences of 2019‐nCoV, and 12 highly similar whole genome sequences available in gene bank (five from the severe acute respiratory syndrome, two from Middle East respiratory syndrome, and five from bat SARS‐like coronavirus). Fast unconstrained Bayesian approximation analysis shows that the nucleocapsid and the spike glycoprotein have some sites under positive pressure, whereas homology modeling revealed some molecular and structural differences between the viruses. The phylogenetic tree showed that 2019‐nCoV significantly clustered with bat SARS‐like coronavirus sequence isolated in 2015, whereas structural analysis revealed mutation in Spike Glycoprotein and nucleocapsid protein. From these results, the new 2019‐nCoV is distinct from SARS virus, probably trasmitted from bats after mutation conferring ability to infect humans. Highlights: An epidemic by a new Coronavirus, the 2019‐nCoV is worrying worldwide.The epdiemic originated in Wuhan, China causing severe infections in some cases.The infection probably originated in bats.A mutation in the viral spike glycoprotein could have favured the cross‐sepcies tramsnimssion from bats to human. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Human immunodeficiency virus type 2 (HIV-2) infections are mainly restricted to West Africa; however, in the recent years, the prevalence of HIV-2 is a growing concern in some European countries and the Southwestern region of India. Despite the presence of different HIV-2 groups, only A and B Groups have established human-to-human transmission chains. Aims: This work aimed to evaluate the phylogeographic inference of HIV-2 Group B worldwide to estimate their data of origin and the population dynamics. Materials and Methods: The evolutionary rates, the demographic history for HIV-2 Group B dataset, and the phylogeographic analysis were estimated using a Bayesian approach. The viral gene flow analysis was used to count viral gene out/in flow among different locations. Results: The root of the Bayesian maximum clade credibility tree of HIV-2 Group B dated back to 1957. The demographic history of HIV-2 Group B showed that the epidemic remained constant up to 1970 when started an exponential growth. From 1985 to early 2000s, the epidemic reached a plateau, and then it was characterized by two bottlenecks and a new plateau at the end of 2000s. Phylogeographic reconstruction showed that the most probable location for the root of the tree was Ghana. Regarding the viral gene flow of HIV-2 Group B, the only observed viral gene flow was from Africa to France, Belgium, and Luxembourg. Conclusions: The study gives insights into the origin, history, and phylogeography of HIV-2 Group B epidemic. The growing number of infections of HIV-2 worldwide indicates the need for strengthening surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chikungunya virus infection in Brazil has raised several concerns due to the rapid dissemination of the virus and its association with several clinical complications. Nevertheless, there is limited information about the genomic epidemiology of CHIKV circulating in Brazil from surveillance studies. Thus, to better understand its dispersion dynamics in Rio de Janeiro (RJ), one of the most affected states during the 2016–2019 epidemic waves, we generated 23 near-complete genomes of CHIKV isolates from two main cities located in the metropolitan mesoregion, obtained directly from clinical samples. Our phylogenetic reconstructions suggest the 2019-CHIKV-ECSA epidemic in RJ state was characterized by the co-circulation of multiple clade (clade A and B), highlighting that two independent introduction events of CHIKV-ECSA into RJ state have occurred between 2016–2019, both mediated from the northeastern region. Interestingly, we identified that the two-clade displaying eighteen characteristic amino acids changes among structural and non-structural proteins. Our findings reinforce that genomic data can provide information about virus genetic diversity and transmission dynamics, which might assist in the arbovirus epidemics establishing of an effective surveillance framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since the first outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, the clinical characteristics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been progressively changed. Data reporting a viral intra-host and inter-host evolution favouring the appearance of mild SARS-CoV-2 strains are since being accumulating. To better understand the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity and its adaptation to the host, it is therefore crucial to investigate the genetic and phenotypic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating lately in the epidemic.Methods: Nasopharyngeal swabs have been analyzed for viral load in the early (March 2020) and late (May 2020) phases of epidemic in Brescia, Italy. Isolation of SARS-CoV-2 from 2 high viral load specimens identified on March 9 (AP66) and on May 8 (GZ69) was performed on Vero E6 cells. Amount of virus released was assessed by quantitative PCR. Genotypic characterization of AP66 and GZ69 was performed by next generation sequencing followed by an in-depth in silico analysis of nucleotide mutations.Results: The SARS-CoV-2 GZ69 strain, isolated in May from an asymptomatic healthcare worker, showed an unprecedented capability of replication in Vero E6 cells in the absence of any evident cytopathic effect. Vero E6 subculturing, up to passage 4, showed that SARS-CoV-2 GZ69 infection was as productive as the one sustained by the cytopathic strain AP66. Whole genome sequencing of the persistently replicating SARS-CoV-2 GZ69 has shown that this strain differs from the early AP66 variant in 9 nucleotide positions (C2939T; C3828T; G21784T; T21846C; T24631C; G28881A; G28882A; G28883C; G29810T) which lead to 6 non-synonymous substitutions spanning on ORF1ab (P892S; S1188L), S (K74N; I95T) and N (R203K, G204R) proteins.Conclusions: Identification of the peculiar SARS-CoV-2 GZ69 strain in the late Italian epidemic highlights the need to better characterize viral variants circulating among asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic individuals. The current approach could unravel the ways for future studies aimed at analyzing the selection process which favours viral mutations in the human host. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The early COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa was highly heterogeneous looking at the epidemiological progression between major provinces. • Early transmission in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) was associated with multiple international introductions of SARS-CoV-2. • The dominating lineages during this time of the epidemic were B.1 and B, which mainly originated from Europe. • Evidence for transmission clusters during the first month of the epidemic suggested locally acquired infection. • A clustered outbreak was linked to a major hospital outbreak in Durban, which inflated the early mortality in KZN. The Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA) was formed to investigate the introduction and understand the early transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in South-Africa. This paper presents the first results from this group, which is a molecular epidemiological study of the first 21 SARS-CoV-2 whole genomes sampled in the first port of entry – KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) – during the first month of the epidemic. By combining this with calculations of the effective reproduction number (R), it aimed to shed light on the patterns of infections in South Africa. Two of the largest provinces – Gauteng and KZN – had a slow growth rate for the number of detected cases, while the epidemic spread faster in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape. The estimates of transmission potential suggested a decrease towards R = 1 since the first cases and deaths, but a subsequent estimated R average of 1.39 between 6–18 May 2020. It was also demonstrated that early transmission in KZN was associated with multiple international introductions and dominated by lineages B1 and B. Evidence for locally acquired infections in a hospital in Durban within the first month of the epidemic was also provided. The COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa was very heterogeneous in its spatial dimension, with many distinct introductions of SARS-CoV2 in KZN and evidence of nosocomial transmission, which inflated early mortality in KZN. The epidemic at the local level was still developing and NGS-SA aimed to clarify the dynamics in South Africa and devise the most effective measures as the outbreak evolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Brazil ranks as third in terms of total number of reported SARS-CoV-2 cases globally. • Here we show how variants displacement have driven distinct epidemic waves in Brazil. • Genomic effort is pivotal to follow the evolution of this unpredictable virus. Brazil ranks as third in terms of total number of reported SARS-CoV-2 cases globally. The COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil was characterised by the co-circulation of multiple variants as a consequence of multiple independent introduction events occurring through time. Here, we describe the SARS-CoV-2 variants that are currently circulating and co-circulating in the country, with the aim to highlight which variants have driven the different epidemic waves. For this purpose, we retrieved metadata information of Coronavirus sequences collected in Brazil and available at the GISAID database. SARS-CoV-2 lineages have been identified along with eleven variants, labelled as VOCs (Alpha, Gamma, Beta, Delta and Omicron) VOIs (Lambda and Mu) VUMs (B.1.1.318) and FMVs (Zeta, Eta and B.1.1.519). Here we show that, in the Brazilian context, after 24 months of sustained transmission and evolution of SARS-CoV-2, local variants (among them the B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33) were displaced by recently introduced VOCs firstly with the Gamma, followed by Delta and more recently Omicron. The rapid spread of some of those VOCs (such as Gamma and Omicron) was also mirror by a large increase in the number of cases and deaths in the country. This in turn reinforces that, due to the emergence of variants that appear to induce a substantial evasion against neutralizing antibody response, it is important to strengthen genomic effort within the country and how vaccination still remains a critical process to protect the vulnerable population, still at risk of infection and death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Yemen, which is located in the southwestern end of the Arabian Peninsula, is one of countries most affected by recurrent epidemics caused by emerging vector-borne viruses. Dengue virus (DENV) outbreaks have been reported with increasing frequency in several governorates since the year 2000, and the Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has been also responsible of large outbreaks and it is now a major public health problem in Yemen. We report the results of the phylogenetic analysis of DENV-2 and CHIKV isolates (NS1 and E1 genes, respectively) detected in an outbreak occurred in Al-Hudayda in 2012. Estimates of the introduction date of CHIKV and DENV-2, and the phylogeographic analysis of DENV-2 are also presented. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the Yemen isolates of DENV belonged to the lineage 2 Cosmopolitan subtype, whereas CHIKV isolates from Yemen belonged to the ECSA genotype. All the CHIKV isolates from Yemen were statistically supported and dated back to the year 2010 (95% HPD: 2009–2011); these sequences showed an alanine in the aminoacid position 226 of the E1 protein. Phylogeographic analysis of DENV-2 virus showed that cluster 1, which included Yemen isolates, dated back to 2003 Burkina Faso strains (95% HPD 1999–2007). The Yemen, cluster dated back to 2011 (95% HPD 2009–2012). Our study sheds light on the global spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV-2 and CHIKV in Yemen. This study reinforces both the need to monitor the spread of CHIKV and DENV, and to apply significant measures for vector control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]