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Evaluation of business processes plays a significant role in business development and improvement. Therefore, organizations need a systematic approach to evaluate all the changes through robust and powerful techniques that can formulate the relationship between the available information and the degree of the inherent uncertainty. In this paper, a set of operational variables are defined. Then, the SPSS software package is utilized to validate the gathered data. After that, the variables are categorized by the use of a clustering technique. Finally, five major factors are determined as the most effective components. According to the inherent uncertainty involved in the process of modelling, fuzzy set theory, a powerful mathematical tool is applied to handle the vagueness. In order to construct a knowledge base based on the fuzzy set theory, the linguistic concepts for each variable are defined. Lastly, membership functions are described and a set of fuzzy rules based on input-output parameters are written in MATLAB software environment. To demonstrate the potential application of the proposed approach, a real case study is illustrated. The results reflect the capability and effectiveness of the approach proposed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complexity and dynamics of the executive projects have coped contractors with substantial hazards and losses. Project risk management is a critical tool for authority to improve its performance and secure the success of the organization. However, a number of standards and approaches have been developed to formulate the projects based on their risks. The Elena guideline is a systematic standard developed by Iran Project Management Association. This guideline provides the full cycle of the risk management process. Risk evaluation is the key part of the risk management process. On the other hand, different techniques have been developed to model a risk evaluation problem. Fuzzy inference system is one of the most popular techniques that is capable of handling all types of the uncertainty involved in projects. This paper proposes a three-stage approach based on the fuzzy inference system under the environment of the Elena guideline to cope with the risky projects. Finally, an illustrative example of the risk evaluation is presented to demonstrate the potential application of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model evaluates the risky projects efficiently and effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]