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The aim of the present study is to analyze the occurrences of future earthquakes using forecasting techniques from past seismicity in northeast India (latitude 20°N–31°N and longitude 87°E–97°E). The present study applies two types of retrospective binary forecasting. The first one is the pattern informatics (PI) method and the other is the Relative Intensity (RI) method. These techniques quantify the spatio-temporal seismicity rate changes in the historic seismicity of the study region. For this purpose, a uniform and complete earthquake catalogue in moment magnitude (Mw > 3) is prepared. The resulting binary forecasts are evaluated with the relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram. The ROC diagram quantifies the results in terms of a hit rate (fraction of events that are successfully forecasted) versus a false alarm rate (no event occurs in a hotspot box). Evaluation of forecasting results using ROC diagram is more protective than maximum likelihood tests. The result gives a regional seismogenic map where earthquakes are likely to occur during a specified period in the future. The recent India–Nepal border earthquake of 18 September 2011 occurred in one of the forecasted regions. These techniques have been applied for the first time to the Indian subcontinent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several aspects of real-time forecast of Indian summer monsoon ( ISM) in 3-4 pentad lead time (extended range) are discussed in this study to explore the operational capability of the Climate Forecast System model version 2 ( CFSv2) developed by National Centre for Environmental Prediction ( NCEP). 2013 summer monsoon was a near excess monsoon year in terms of seasonal mean and was a result of rich diversity of phenomena including strong intraseasonal variations and intense northward propagations over the Indian region. Eleven-member forecasts were made at every 5-day interval during the June-September monsoon season which included monsoon onset and withdrawal phases. The ensemble members were created by perturbing the initial conditions at each start time. In addition to the CFSv2 forecasts, we also carried out forecasts using the atmospheric-only component ( GFSv2) forced with CFSv2-derived sea surface temperature (SST) subjected to a bias correction based on historical observations ( GFSbc runs). Both the CFSv2 and GFSbc runs were able to predict the progression of ISM over the Indian region and the subsequent intraseasonal oscillations (active and break phases). The analysis for an extreme event (Uttarakhand flood) and monsoon revival (MR) towards the end of the season was also performed. Comparison between the two runs shows that active and break spells were predicted with good fidelity over the Indian region, though GFSbc outperforms CFSv2 on several occasions. Thus, improvement of the operational monsoon forecast over Indian region using NCEP CFSv2 requires better representation of air-sea interaction and mean states of ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]