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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify trade integration and structure effects on bilateral trade between China and its partners, focusing on Chinese merchandise imports during the period 1995–2018. Design/methodology/approach: The methodological approach applied here uses the augmented gravity model to investigate the factors lying behind import intensity, by use of the ordinary least squares (OLS) and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimators. Findings: The findings provide evidence of complementarity between the Chinese demand and the world commodity markets. Free trade agreements between China and third countries seem to gradually lose significance, as the Chinese economy consolidates in world trade. Higher product diversification in export structures of China's trading partners can become advantageous for facilitating market penetration. Diversification of energy resources, the steady, high demand for infrastructure equipment and more sophisticated consumer products constantly determine the structure of Chinese merchandise imports originating mainly and increasingly from countries with direct access to the Pacific Ocean. Originality/value: The analytical breakdown of Chinese imports, presented in this paper, adds value to the existing literature with regard to trade structure analysis for China, paving the way for similar research for other developing countries as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite all the promising benefits, the adoption of fully autonomous vehicles (FAVs) is expected to require a long transitional process. While innovators and early adopters tend to adopt the technology fast, most will gradually adopt the technology after varying periods. Meanwhile, today's social networking technologies have strengthened the influence of peer effects and caused noticeable changes to decision-making behavior. To date, there is relatively little study on how peer effects influence autonomous vehicles (AVs) adoption. The current paper explores how AV adoption is influenced by various factors, especially by different levels of individual susceptibility and prior-AV knowledge. Susceptibility is a latent variable measuring to what extent individuals will follow the influence of their peers in AV adoption. Prior-AV knowledge is another latent variable that measures people's knowledge about AVs, which will further impact their price sensitivity. A stated preference (SP) survey was carried out in five cities in China. 1132 new car buyers were surveyed, resulting in 3855 valid records for vehicle preference. The Integrated Choice and Latent Variable (ICLV) Model is used to measure the susceptibility and prior-AV knowledge attributes, and identify their contribution to the heterogeneity of AV adoption intentions. The results show that many demographic factors influence the adoption of AVs. Younger individuals, those with higher education levels, higher income, and more driving experience are more readily influenced by their peers. High market penetration has a significant influence on FAV adoption, but to a varying degree depending on the individual susceptibility level. People with prior-AV knowledge, who are more likely to be older drivers, have no children under 18, have higher incomes and higher education levels, are found to be less sensitive to vehicle price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of China Quarterly is the property of Cambridge University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Coastal short-term cruise products are matched with Chinese consumer demand characteristics. Launching coastal short-term cruise products can help local Chinese cruise companies change the monopoly status of foreign cruise companies in China. This paper builds a two-stage optimization model to provide a decision-making method for local Chinese cruise companies. The first stage determines the itinerary scheme, with the goals of minimizing the cost and maximizing the potential demand. The second stage determines the cabin price, with the goal of maximizing the profit of the cruise company. The model considers the competition of cruise products and their alternative products based on consumer preferences. In the case study, we take Dalian Port as the home port to do the numerical analysis. The results show that coastal cruise products with journey times of 2–3 days have the highest market penetration and are more profitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The governmental subsidy is an important instrument for catalyzing the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). A sustainable subsidy policy must balance between promoting EVs and expanding the charging infrastructure. This paper proposes a dynamic game approach for computing the optimal subsidies, taking into consideration the cross-side network effect between EV adoption and charging infrastructure expansion. The government's objective is to expedite the adoption of EV technology, maintain sustainable EV-to-CS ratios, and maximize cumulative social benefit in the face of uncertainty. The case study of China's EV industry indicates that the existing EV subsidy program, known as the Dual-Credit Policy (DCP), will not be sufficient to support EV growth by 2035 due to inadequate infrastructure investment. In contrast, the optimal subsidies will achieve the target EV market penetration rate and ensure the accessibility to charging infrastructure by 2035. This non-myopic strategy can prioritize the infrastructure expansion, eliminate policy enforcement's monitoring costs, prevent compensation evasion, and help achieve long-term targets by making proactive regulatory policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global outbreak of COVID-19 has further exposed deficiencies in city logistics based on human and ground roads, such as poor emergency response capacity and high risk of infection during transportation. Metro-based underground logistics system (M-ULS) may be an innovative approach to deal with this city-level disaster due to its efficient operation, contactless and driverless characteristics. However, the market evolution process and the quantitative calculation framework of comprehensive benefits after the application of M-ULS are still unclear, which has become a problem of mutual restriction with the extensive application of M-ULS. This paper attempts to use the system dynamics method, based on the real-world simulation, to analyze the quantitative relationship between the M-ULS implementation and the city logistics performance under epidemic outbreaks. Wuhan city in China was selected as the empirical background, and five simulation scenarios were set under different implementation strategies of M-ULS in response to the epidemic. Six variables were selected to measure city logistics performance and M-ULS operation status, including demand fill-rate, unit delivery time, total deprivation cost, total transportation cost, total number of susceptible people, and utilization rate of M-ULS. The results show that M-ULS is effective in improving the performance of city logistics and responding to the epidemic. The delivery time and transportation cost have a strong impact on the market share of M-ULS. Finally, a set of incentive policies was designed to promote the adoption of M-ULS. The findings not only provide a method for evaluating the overall performance of M-ULS, but also provide a unique perspective for promoting the implementation of M-ULS and responding to the transportation challenges brought by the epidemic. • M-ULS is introduced to break through the plight of city logistics. • A set of effective macro-micro incentive policies are established to promote the implementation of M-ULS. • The delivery time, transportation cost and government subsidies play different roles in the market penetration of M-ULS. • The benefits of M-ULS have been analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Although forecasting electric vehicles' growth in China was frequently reported in the literature, predicting electric vehicles market penetration as well as corresponding energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential in a more suitable method is not well understood. Methods: This study chose the double species model to predict electric vehicles' growth trajectory under mutually competitive conditions between electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles. For comparison, it set two scenarios: with 200 and 300 vehicles per thousand persons at 2050. To give details on energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential induced by electric vehicles' market penetration, it further divided electric vehicles into five subgroups and internal combustion engine vehicles into seven subgroups, therein forming respective measurement formulas. Results: This paper solved the double species model and thus got its analytical formula. Then it employed the analytical formula to conduct an empirical study on electric vehicles market penetration in China from year 2010 to 2050. Under scenario 300, electric vehicles growth trajectory will emerge a quick growth stage during 2021–2035, thereafter keeping near invariant till 2050. Meanwhile, current internal combustion engine vehicles' quick growth will continue up to 2027, then holding constant during 2028–2040, afterwards following a 10-year slowdown period. Scenario 200 has similar features, but a 2-year delay for electric vehicles and a 5-year lead time for internal combustion engine vehicles were found. On average, scenario 300 will save 114.4 Mt oil and 111.5 Mt carbon dioxide emissions, and scenario 200 will save 77.1 Mt oil and 73.4 Mt carbon dioxide emissions each year. Beyond 2032, annual 50.0% of road transport consumed oil and 18.6% of carbon dioxide emissions from this sector will be saved under scenario 300. Discussion: Compared with scenario 200, scenario 300 was more suitable to predict electric vehicle market penetration in China. In the short-term electric vehicle penetration only brings about trivial effects, while in the long-term it will contribute a lot to both energy security and carbon dioxide mitigation. The contribution of this article provided a more suitable methodology for predicting electric vehicle market penetration, simulated two coupled trajectories of electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles, and discussed relative energy-saving and climate effects from 2010 to 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Although forecasting electric vehicles' growth in China was frequently reported in the literature, predicting electric vehicles market penetration as well as corresponding energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential in a more suitable method is not well understood. Methods: This study chose the double species model to predict electric vehicles' growth trajectory under mutually competitive conditions between electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles. For comparison, it set two scenarios: with 200 and 300 vehicles per thousand persons at 2050. To give details on energy saving and carbon dioxide mitigation potential induced by electric vehicles' market penetration, it further divided electric vehicles into five subgroups and internal combustion engine vehicles into seven subgroups, therein forming respective measurement formulas. Results: This paper solved the double species model and thus got its analytical formula. Then it employed the analytical formula to conduct an empirical study on electric vehicles market penetration in China from year 2010 to 2050. Under scenario 300, electric vehicles growth trajectory will emerge a quick growth stage during 2021-2035, thereafter keeping near invariant till 2050. Meanwhile, current internal combustion engine vehicles' quick growth will continue up to 2027, then holding constant during 2028-2040, afterwards following a 10-year slowdown period. Scenario 200 has similar features, but a 2-year delay for electric vehicles and a 5-year lead time for internal combustion engine vehicles were found. On average, scenario 300 will save 114.4 Mt oil and 111.5 Mt carbon dioxide emissions, and scenario 200 will save 77.1 Mt oil and 73.4 Mt carbon dioxide emissions each year. Beyond 2032, annual 50.0% of road transport consumed oil and 18.6% of carbon dioxide emissions from this sector will be saved under scenario 300. Discussion: Compared with scenario 200, scenario 300 was more suitable to predict electric vehicle market penetration in China. In the short-term electric vehicle penetration only brings about trivial effects, while in the long-term it will contribute a lot to both energy security and carbon dioxide mitigation. The contribution of this article provided a more suitable methodology for predicting electric vehicle market penetration, simulated two coupled trajectories of electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles, and discussed relative energy-saving and climate effects from 2010 to 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The road traffic safety situation around the world is not optimistic. The development of intelligent vehicles has become an ideal way to reduce road traffic crashes. The adaptive cruise control (ACC) system is an effective intelligent vehicle active safety system for avoiding certain types of collisions. This study aimed to assess the safety benefits of ACC in China, including the potential maximum impact and realistic impact.Methods: This study applies a national-level safety impact evaluation model to assess the safety benefits of ACC in China, including the potential maximum impact and realistic impact. Road traffic fatality and severe injury trends in China, proportion of different collision types in China, effectiveness of collision avoidance, and market penetration rate of ACC are considered in the potential maximum impact scenario. Furthermore, the ACC activation rate and the technology's technical limitations, including its effectiveness in different weather, light, speed, and road conditions, are discussed in the realistic scenario.Results: With a 100% market penetration rate, fatalities could be reduced by 5.48%, and injuries could be reduced by 4.91%. With a large increase in market penetration rate of ACC in the coming future, the reductions in fatalities and severe injuries are 324-957 and 1,035-2,737 in 2025 and 531-1,579 and 1,604-4,242 in 2030. Considering ACC's activation rate and its 4 main limitations, the adjusted realistic result is approximately one-third of the potential maximum result.Conclusions: The result clearly shows that the ACC system can improve road traffic safety in China. Technical limitations have a great impact on ACC's safety benefits. Of all of the limiting factors, the turn-on rate provides the most room for improvement, and improving the suitability of the ACC system on curved and sloped roads provides the smallest effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Comprehensive analysis of country-specific boundary conditions and success factors. • National heat supply systems and incentive policies are essential. • Role of district heating utilities in Denmark for solar district heating success. • Technological solutions and best practice examples of large-scale systems. • First-hand market research on China shows higher market penetration than assumed. Large-scale solar thermal systems are a cost-efficient technology to provide renewable heat. The rapid market growth in the last decade has been concentrated on a small number of countries, with the outstanding position of Denmark followed by China, Germany and Austria. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the market and common technological solutions for large-scale solar thermal systems in these countries. Country-specific factors, including solar resources, heat supply systems, competing technologies, promotion schemes and business models, which put these countries in a leading role, are analyzed in detail using an integrated assessment framework. For each country, a best practice solar heating system is introduced. The analysis shows that heat supply by large-scale solar thermal systems is a mature technology with a broad field of applications and that mainly country-specific boundary conditions regarding the heat supply system and incentive policy are responsible for the preeminent role of these four countries. The unique role of district heating utilities in Denmark, which are subject to a national emissions trading system and often act both as investors and operators of large-scale solar thermal systems, can serve as a role model for other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural gas is expected to play a much more important role in China in future decades, and market reform is crucial for its rapid market penetration. At present, the main gas fields, pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure are mainly monopolized by large state-owned companies, and one of the important market reform policies is to open up LNG import rights to smaller private companies and traders. Therefore, in the present study, a game theoretical model is proposed to analyze and compare the impacts of different market structures on infrastructure deployment and social welfare. Moreover, a support vector machine-based rolling horizon stochastic method is adopted in the model to simulate real LNG price fluctuations. Four market reform scenarios are proposed considering different policies such as business separation, third-party access (TPA) and their combinations. The results indicate that, with third-party access (TPA) entrance into the LNG market, the construction of LNG infrastructure will be promoted and more gas will be provided at lower prices, and thus the total social welfare will be improved greatly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural gas-fired electricity (NGFE) is expected to play a more important role in the future due to its characteristics of low pollution, high efficiency and flexibility. However, its development in China is impeded by its high regulation price compared with coal power. Market reform is therefore of vital importance to promote the penetration of NGFE. The objective of this study is to analyze the impacts of market reform and the renewable electricity (RE) subsidy policy on the promotion of NGFE and RE. A dynamic game-theoretic model is developed to analyze the interaction among the NG supplier, the power sector and the power grid. Three scenarios are proposed with different policies, including a fixed regulation price of NG and electricity, real-time pricing (RTP) of NG and electricity, and subsidy targeted at RE. The results show that: (1) market reform can sharply decrease the NG price and consequently promote the development of NGFE and RE; (2) subsidy targeted at RE not only promotes the penetration of NGFE and RE, but also increases the utilization ratio of renewables significantly; (3) market reform and the subsidy also enhance consumers' welfare by reducing their power consumption expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Public Policy is the property of University of Toronto Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

While it might have already been mature in developed economies, the leasing industry is still emerging and rising in China. The Chinese leasing market witnessed a double-digit growth in the last decade and still has potential to sustain this rapid growth in the next decade or beyond. This article aims to provide an overview of this ever-growing Chinese market, covering the leasing history, the importance to the Chinese economy and its on-going economic transition, and a comprehensive introduction to the recent market structure, performance, and legal infrastructures of the leasing industry. It is our view that although it has experienced a dramatic growth period, the Chinese leasing market still has a huge potential in that its market penetration ratio is still at a very low level, less than 5%. The article ends with a discussion of the opportunities and challenges for this market. Despite these challenges, the Chinese leasing industry is stepping into its golden era, as encouraged by the Chinese governments at both central and provincial level, to an unprecedented extent, together with the establishment of a corporate credit information system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]