Search

Purpose: The 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was the largest in history. Starting in September 2014, International Medical Corps (IMC) operated five Ebola treatment units (ETUs) in Sierra Leone and Liberia. This paper explores how future infectious disease outbreak facilities in resource-limited settings can be planned, organized, and managed by analyzing data collected on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and infection prevention control (IPC) protocols. Design/Methodology/Approach: We conducted a retrospective cohort study by analyzing WASH/IPC activity data routinely recorded on paper forms or white boards at ETUs during the outbreak and later merged into a database from two IMC-run ETUs in Sierra Leone between December 2014 and December 2015. Findings: The IMC WASH/IPC database contains data from over 369 days. Our results highlight parameters key to designing and maintaining an ETU. High concentration chlorine solution usage was highly correlated with both daily patient occupancy and high-risk zone staff entries; low concentration chlorine usage was less well explained by these measures. There is high demand for laundering and disinfecting of personal protective equipment (PPE) on a daily basis and approximately 1 (0–4) piece of PPE is damaged each day. Research limitations/Implications: Lack of standardization in the type and format of data collected at ETUs made constructing the WASH/IPC database difficult. However, the data presented here may help inform humanitarian response operations in future epidemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates suitability of supervised machine learning classification methods for classification of biomes using pollen datasets. We assign modern pollen samples from Africa and Arabia to five biome classes using a previously published African pollen dataset and a global ecosystem classification scheme. To test the applicability of traditional and machine-learning based classification models for the task of biome prediction from high dimensional modern pollen data, we train a total of eight classification models, including Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification Decision Tree, Random Forest, Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine. The ability of each model to predict biomes from pollen data is statistically tested on an independent test set. The Random Forest classifier outperforms other models in its ability correctly classify biomes given pollen data. Out of the eight models, the Random Forest classifier scores highest on all of the metrics used for model evaluations and is able to predict four out of five biome classes to high degree of accuracy, including arid, montane, tropical and subtropical closed and open systems, e.g. forests and savanna/grassland. The model has the potential for accurate reconstructions of past biomes and awaits application to fossil pollen sequences. The Random Forest model may be used to investigate vegetation changes on both long and short time scales, e.g. during glacial and interglacial cycles, or more recent and abrupt climatic anomalies like the African Humid Period. Such applications may contribute to a better understanding of past shifts in vegetation cover and ultimately provide valuable information on drivers of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Crime and violence causes massive disruptions to the health, survival and development of populations. In South Africa, incredibly high rates of crime and violence are noted. The country also has a very large youth population whose health, survival and development are key to economic growth. Among other efforts to encourage healthy youth development and the promotion of social activities such as sports, youth groups, choirs and so forth. This study examines the relationship between perceived community safety and the uptake of social activities among youth in South Africa. Data and methods: This paper uses data from the National Youth Lifestyle Survey (2008) with an unweighted sample of 4,391 youth (age12-22 years old). Using chi-square and logistic regression analysis the association between perceived community safety and social activity participation are tested. Findings: The results indicate that youth participation in social activities in South Africa is high (55% of males and 45% of females). Among males, the most prominent activity is sports (51.8%), while for females there is high participation in choir and singing groups (55.68%). More than 50% of males perceive their communities as risky while less than half of females feel the same. Male youth are more likely to participate in social activities if they perceive their communities as risky (OR = 1.04). Females (OR = 0.83), youth have a negative view of their future (OR = 0.43) are less likely to participate in social activities. Conclusions: There exists an association between youth’s perception of community safety and their participation in social activities. Whether sports and groups are protective or enabling environments for youth from unsafe communities is moot. More in-depth research is needed on why youth participate in these clubs and groups to truly understand the role of social activities in South African societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Increased second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) failure rate narrows future options for HIV/AIDS treatment. It has critical implications in resource-limited settings; including sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where the burden of HIV-infection is immense. Hence, pooled estimate for second-line HIV treatment failure is relevant to suggest valid recommendations that optimize ART outcomes in SSA. Methods: We retrieved literature systematically from PUBMED/MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Google Scholar, and AJOL. The retrieved studies were screened and assessed for eligibility. We also assessed the eligible studies for their methodological quality using the Joanna Briggs Institute’s appraisal checklist. The pooled estimates for second-line HIV treatment failure and its associated factors were determined using STATA, version 15.0 and MEDCALC, version 18.11.3, respectively. We assessed publication bias using Comprehensive Meta-analysis software, version 3. Detailed study protocol for this review/meta-analysis is registered and found on PROSPERO (ID: CRD42018118959). Results: A total of 33 studies with the overall 18,550 participants and 19,988.45 person-years (PYs) of follow-up were included in the review. The pooled second-line HIV treatment failure rate was 15.0 per 100 PYs (95% CI: 13.0–18.0). It was slightly higher at 12–18 months of follow-up (19.0/100 PYs; 95% CI: 15.0–22.0), in children (19.0/100 PYs; 95% CI: 14.0–23.0) and in southern SSA (18.0/100 PYs; 95% CI: 14.0–23.0). Baseline values (high viral load (OR: 5.67; 95% CI: 13.40–9.45); advanced clinical stage (OR: 3.27; 95% CI: 2.07–5.19); and low CD4 counts (OR: 2.80; 95% CI: 1.83–4.29)) and suboptimal adherence to therapy (OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.28–2.86) were the factors associated with increased failure rates. Conclusion: Second-line HIV treatment failure has become highly prevalent in SSA with alarming rates during the 12–18 month period of treatment start; in children; and southern SSA. Therefore, the second-line HIV treatment approach in SSA should critically consider excellent adherence to therapy, aggressive viral load suppression, and rapid immune recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lead and malaria both present significant health risks to children in Sub-Saharan Africa. Previous studies have shown that high blood lead levels in children act as a protective factor against subsequent malaria incidence. The main objective of this study was to investigate associations between blood lead level and malaria outcomes prospectively in Beninese children from 12 to 24 months of age. Two-hundred and four children were assessed for lead at 12 months and closely followed until 24 months for malaria; when symptoms and parasite density were also recorded. Univariate and multivariate negative binomial and linear regression models tested associations between blood lead level quartile and total episodes of malaria (total symptomatic and asymptomatic episodes) and parasite density, respectively. Median blood lead level among children measured at 12 months was 56.50 (4.81–578) μg/L. During the 12-month follow-up, 172 (84.31%) children had at least one malaria episode. Univariate and multivariate negative binomial and linear regressions did not reveal significant associations between blood lead level quartile and malaria outcomes. Iron deficiency was not found to be an effect modifier. Results from this prospective child-cohort study investigating associations between blood lead level and malaria did not confirm results from previous cross-sectional studies. Further research is needed to further explore this relationship and other co-morbidities due to malaria and lead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-related studies have generally focussed upon physiologically well-defined ‘mechanistic’ traits rather than ‘functional’ ones relating indirectly to resource capture. Nevertheless, field responses to climate are likely to typically include both ‘mechanistic’ specialization to climatic extremes and ‘functional’ strategies that optimize resource acquisition during less climatically-severe periods. Here, this hypothesis was tested. Seventeen traits (six ‘functional’, six ‘mechanistic’ and five ‘intermediate’) were measured from 19 populations of oleaster (wild olive) along a climatic gradient in Morocco. Principal components analysis of the trait dataset identified size and the ‘worldwide leaf economics spectrum’ as PCA axes 1 and 2. However, contrary to our prediction, these axes, and commonly-measured ‘functional’ traits, were little correlated with climate. Instead, PCA 3, perhaps relating to water-use and succulence, together stomatal density, specific leaf water content and leaf shape, patterned with altitude, aridity, rainfall and temperature. We concluded that, at least for slow-growing species, such as oleaster, ‘mechanistic’ traits are key to identifying mechanisms of climatic restriction. Meaningful collaboration between ‘mechanistic’ and ‘functional’ disciplines provides the best way of improving our understanding of the global impacts of climate change on species distribution and performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assessed households’ resilience to climate change-induced shocks in Dinki watershed, northcentral highlands of Ethiopia. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted on 288 households, three focus group discussions, and 15 key informant interviews. The Climate Resilience Index (CRI) based on the three resilience capacities (absorptive, adaptive and transformative) frame was used to measure households’ resilience to climate change-induced shocks on an agro-ecological unit of analysis. A principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple regression analysis were used to identify determinant factors and indicators to households’ resilience, respectively. Findings indicate that the indexed scores of major components clearly differentiated the study communities in terms of their agro-ecological zones. Specifically, the absorptive capacity (0.495) was the leading contributing factor to resilience followed by adaptive (0.449) and transformative (0.387) capacities. Likewise, the Midland was relatively more resilient with a mean index value of 0.461. Both the PCA and multiple regression analysis indicated that access to and use of livelihood resources, such as farmlands and livestock holdings, diversity of income sources, infrastructure and social capital were determinants of households’ resilience. In general, it might be due to their exposure to recurrent shocks coupled with limited adaptive capacities including underdeveloped public services, poor livelihood diversification practices, among others, the study communities showed minimal resilience capacity with a mean score of 0.44. Thus, in addition to short-term buffering strategies, intervention priority focusing on both adaptive and transformative capacities, particularly focusing on most vulnerable localities and constrained livelihood strategies, would contribute to ensuring long-term resilience in the study communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health care provider (HCP) performance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is often inadequate. The Health Care Provider Performance Review (HCPPR) is a comprehensive systematic review of the effectiveness and cost of strategies to improve HCP performance in LMICs. We present the HCPPR’s methods, describe methodological and contextual attributes of included studies, and examine time trends of study attributes. Methods: The HCPPR includes studies from LMICs that quantitatively evaluated any strategy to improve HCP performance for any health condition, with no language restrictions. Eligible study designs were controlled trials and interrupted time series. In 2006, we searched 15 databases for published studies; in 2008 and 2010, we completed searches of 30 document inventories for unpublished studies. Data from eligible reports were double-abstracted and entered into a database, which is publicly available. The primary outcome measure was the strategy’s effect size. We assessed time trends with logistic, Poisson, and negative binomial regression modeling. We were unable to register with PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews) because the protocol was developed prior to the PROSPERO launch. Results: We screened 105,299 citations and included 824 reports from 499 studies of 161 intervention strategies. Most strategies had multiple components and were tested by only one study each. Studies were from 79 countries and had diverse methodologies, geographic settings, HCP types, work environments, and health conditions. Training, supervision, and patient and community supports were the most commonly evaluated strategy components. Only 33.6% of studies had a low or moderate risk of bias. From 1958–2003, the number of studies per year and study quality increased significantly over time, as did the proportion of studies from low-income countries. Only 36.3% of studies reported information on strategy cost or cost-effectiveness. Conclusions: Studies have reported on the efficacy of many strategies to improve HCP performance in LMICs. However, most studies have important methodological limitations. The HCPPR is a publicly accessible resource for decision-makers, researchers, and others interested in improving HCP performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water point mapping databases, generated through surveys of water sources such as wells and boreholes, are now available in many low and middle income countries, but often suffer from incomplete coverage. To address the partial coverage in such databases and gain insights into spatial patterns of water resource use, this study investigated the use of a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach to predict the geospatial distribution of drinking-water sources, using two types of unimproved sources in Kenya as illustration. Geographic locations of unprotected dug wells and surface water sources derived from the Water Point Data Exchange (WPDx) database were used as inputs to the MaxEnt model alongside geological/hydrogeological and socio-economic covariates. Predictive performance of the MaxEnt models was high (all > 0.9) based on Area Under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUC), and the predicted spatial distribution of water point was broadly consistent with household use of these unimproved drinking-water sources reported in household survey and census data. In developing countries where geospatial datasets concerning drinking-water sources often have necessarily limited resolution or incomplete spatial coverage, the modelled surface can provide an initial indication of the geography of unimproved drinking-water sources to target unserved populations and assess water source vulnerability to contamination and hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Asthma is one of the neglected diseases in Africa with a high prevalence. Allergic fungal diseases have been reported to complicate asthma progression and treatment outcomes. However, data about fungal asthma and its associated complications are limited in Africa. We aimed to estimate the burden of fungal asthma among adults and children in Africa using a systematic review. Methods: We first engaged the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to highlight the trend in morbidity and mortality attributed to asthma in Africa. We then searched PubMed, HINARI and Google Scholar for all studies of any design focusing on fungal asthma in any African country. Languages were restricted to English and French, but not year of publication. We estimated the weighted prevalence of allergic fungal infections among asthmatics with a 95% CI and pooled the results using a random effects model. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42019117319. Results: The IHME data showed that there has been a gradual increase in morbidity and mortality due to asthma in African adults with a prevalence of 4%. Our search retrieved 5233 citations. We retained 20 studies that met our selection criteria. These were from 13 African countries published between 1967 and 2018. There were eight cross-sectional studies and twelve review articles. The average asthma prevalence in Africa was 6% from these studies. The prevalence of fungal sensitisation was relatively high (3–52%) in the asthmatic population with an average of 28% and a pooled estimate of 23.3%, mostly due to Aspergillus species. Prevalence of Allergic bronchopulmonary apsergillosis was estimated at 1.6–21.2%. Diagnosis of fungal allergy was mostly made by skin prick tests. There was no data on the use of medication to manage fungal asthma. None of the studies evaluated the association between fungal allergy and asthma severity. Data were lacking in children. Conclusion: There is a high prevalence of fungal sensitization among Africans with asthma. Fungal asthma is a significant problem in Africa but there remains a paucity of data on the epidemiology and associated complications. There is urgent need for national epidemiological studies to estimate the actual burden of fungal asthma in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Jhpiego implemented a 5-year project to strengthen the Community-Based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) model in six coastal districts of Ghana’s Western Region. The project utilized a quality improvement approach (Standards-Based Management and Recognition [SBM-R]) to strengthen implementation fidelity of the CHPS model. This article presents findings from an end-of-project evaluation comparing quality, access to care, and experience of care in intervention and comparison CHPS zones. Methods: A non-equivalent, posttest–only, end-of-project evaluation compared 12 randomly selected intervention zones with 12 matched comparison zones. Data from standards-based assessments measured provision of care in three categories: community engagement, clinical services, and facility readiness and management. Access to and experience of care were assessed using a household survey of 426 randomly selected community members from the selected CHPS zones. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to compare performance on these measures between intervention and comparison CHPS zones. Results: Overall, intervention zones outperformed comparison zones on achievement of standards (83.6% vs 58.8%) across all three assessment categories, with strongest results in community engagement (85.7% vs. 41.4%). Respondents in intervention zones were more than twice as likely to have received a home visit from a community health officer, three times as likely to have a home visit from a community health volunteer, and more likely to have attended a health talk (41.9% vs. 27.0%). Client experiences of care were reported as positive in both study arms. Conclusions: The evaluation demonstrated improved access to quality care; however, there were very few differences in client experience of care between intervention and comparison zones. As Ghana and other countries are committed to scaling up universal health care, a pragmatic approach such as SBM-R could prove useful to engage both facility- and community-based service providers, as well as community members, to improve provision of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hypertension is the leading driver of cardiovascular disease deaths in Africa. Its prevalence is highest in older populations. Yet, this group has received little attention in many African countries. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO registration: CRD42017056474) to estimate the prevalence of hypertension in older adults living in Africa. Methods: We searched grey literature and major electronic databases including PubMed and Embase for population-based studies and published between 1 January 1980 to 28 May 2018 reporting the prevalence of hypertension for adults aged ≥50 years living in Africa. We employed a random effects model to estimate the pooled prevalence across included studies. Findings: We screened 10,719 articles and retrieved 103 full-text articles to evaluate for inclusion in the review. Thirty-four unique studies providing 37 data points on 43,025 individuals in 15 African countries were analyzed. The prevalence of hypertension ranged from 22.3% to 90.0% from the individual studies while the overall pooled prevalence was 57.0% (95% CI 52%-61%). The prevalence was not statistically significantly different by sex, residence, or African sub-region. In individual studies, older age and overweight/obesity were independently associated with hypertension. Twenty-nine (78%) data points were deemed to be of low- or moderate-risk of bias. Eliminating high-risk bias studies made little difference to the pooled estimate of hypertension. Sensitivity analyses, omitting one study at a time, identified three studies with significant but relatively small impact on the pooled estimate. We observed substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 98.9%) across the studies which was further explored by meta-regression analyses. Overall, the GRADE assessment suggested moderate quality evidence in the results. Conclusion: The persistent high prevalence of hypertension among older adults in Africa, even in rural populations warrants more attention to the cardiovascular health of this group by public health authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiological transitions are occurring throughout Africa. To inform public health programs and policies, longitudinal cohorts investigating non-communicable diseases are needed. However, loss-to-follow up is a major problem. In preparation for a longitudinal study, we conducted a randomized controlled trial to test communication-based retention strategies (message content and delivery methods) among a pilot cohort of South African healthcare workers (n = 1536; median age = 36; women = 1270). Two messaging formats across three delivery modes were tested. Response rates were analyzed by intervention, survey return date and method using chi-square tests and univariate logistic regression. Sixty-seven of 238 (17.4%) control group participants and 238 of 1152 (24.6%) intervention group participants were retained (OR 1.54: CI 1.15–2.07; P = 0.004). Odds of being retained were 1.68 times greater for participants who received regular contact and themed messages compared to control (CI 1.22–2.32; P = 0.001). Neither health status nor clinical condition affected response rates (P>0.05). Time-to-first contact did not impact response rates (P>0.05). Message content and delivery method influenced response rates compared to the control, however no difference was found between intervention groups. Although greater retention is required for valid cohort studies, these findings are the first to quantitatively assess retention factors in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In the context of malaria elimination, interventions will need to target high burden areas to further reduce transmission. Current tools to monitor and report disease burden lack the capacity to continuously detect fine-scale spatial and temporal variations of disease distribution exhibited by malaria. These tools use random sampling techniques that are inefficient for capturing underlying heterogeneity while health facility data in resource-limited settings are inaccurate. Continuous community surveys of malaria burden provide real-time results of local spatio-temporal variation. Adaptive geostatistical design (AGD) improves prediction of outcome of interest compared to current random sampling techniques. We present findings of continuous malaria prevalence surveys using an adaptive sampling design. Methods: We conducted repeated cross sectional surveys guided by an adaptive sampling design to monitor the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia and anaemia in children below five years old in the communities living around Majete Wildlife Reserve in Chikwawa district, Southern Malawi. AGD sampling uses previously collected data to sample new locations of high prediction variance or, where prediction exceeds a set threshold. We fitted a geostatistical model to predict malaria prevalence in the area. Findings: We conducted five rounds of sampling, and tested 876 children aged 6–59 months from 1377 households over a 12-month period. Malaria prevalence prediction maps showed spatial heterogeneity and presence of hotspots—where predicted malaria prevalence was above 30%; predictors of malaria included age, socio-economic status and ownership of insecticide-treated mosquito nets. Conclusions: Continuous malaria prevalence surveys using adaptive sampling increased malaria prevalence prediction accuracy. Results from the surveys were readily available after data collection. The tool can assist local managers to target malaria control interventions in areas with the greatest health impact and is ready for assessment in other diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aim: Glomerulonephritis (GN) is a leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Africa. Data on epidemiology and outcomes of glomerular diseases from Africa is still limited. We conducted a systematic review on the epidemiology of histologically proven glomerular diseases in Africa between 1980 and 2014. Materials and methods: We searched literature using PubMed, AfricaWide, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature on EBSCO Host, Scopus, African Journals online databases, and the African Index Medicus, for relevant studies. The review was conducted using standard methods and frameworks using only biopsy-confirmed data. Results: Twenty four (24) studies comprising 12,093 reported biopsies from 13 countries were included in this analysis. The median number of biopsies per study was 127.0 (50–4436), most of the studies (70.0%) originated from North Africa and the number of performed kidney biopsies varied from 5.2 to 617 biopsies/year. Nephrotic syndrome was the commonest indication of renal biopsy. The frequency of reported primary pathologic patterns included, minimal change disease (MCD); 16.5% (95%CI: 11.2–22.6), focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS); 15.9% (11.3–21.1), mesangiocapillary GN (MCGN); 11.8% (9.2–14.6), crescentic GN; 2.0% (0.9–3.5) and IgA nephropathy 2.8% (1.3–4.9). Glomerular diseases related to hepatitis B and systemic lupus erythematosus had the highest prevalence among assessed secondary diseases: 8.4% (2.0–18.4) and 7.7% (4.5–11.7) respectively. There was no evidence of publication bias and regional differences were seen mostly for secondary GNs. Conclusions: Glomerular diseases remain poorly characterized in sub-Saharan Africa due to declining renal biopsy rates and consequent paucity of data on pathologic patterns of key renal diseases. Development of renal biopsy registries in Africa is likely to enable adequate characterization of the prevalence and patterns of glomerular diseases; this could have a positive impact on chronic kidney disease evaluation and treatment in the African continent since most glomerulopathies are amenable to treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]