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Coral bleaching driven by ocean warming is one of the most visible ecological impacts of climate change and perhaps the greatest threat to the persistence of reefs in the coming decades. In the absence of returning atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations to those compatible with ocean temperatures below the mass coral bleaching temperature thresholds, the most straightforward means to reduce thermal-stress induced bleaching is to cool water at the seabed. The feasibility of reducing the seabed temperature through cool-water injections is considered first by analysing the feasibility of doing so on 19 reefs with differing physical environments using a simple residence time metric in 200 m resolution hydrodynamic model configurations. We then concentrate on the reefs around Lizard Island, the most promising candidate of the 19 locations, and develop a 40 m hydrodynamic model to investigate the effect of the injection of cool water at differing volumetric rates. Injecting 27°C seawater at a rate of 5 m³ s-1 at 4 sites in early 2017 cooled 97 ha of the reef by 0.15°C or more. The power required to pump 5 m³ s-1 through a set of pipes over a distance of 3 km from a nearby channel is*466 kW. This power applied at 4 sites for 3 months achieves a 2 Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) reduction on 97 ha of reef. A more precise energy costing will require further expert engineering design of the pumping equipment and energy sources. Even for the most physically favourable reefs, cool-water transported through pipes and injected at a reef site is energy expensive and cannot be scaled up to any meaningful fraction of the 3,100 reefs of the GBR. Should priority be given to reducing thermal stress on one or a few high value reefs, this paper provides a framework to identify the most promising sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Barrier Reef Expedition (1928–1929) observed two of the earliest known examples of coral bleaching during a 13-month stay on Low Isles, northern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The first was during austral summer in February 1929 in a shallow moat and the second during austral winter in June 1929 on a deeper seaward slope. Using Expedition records and modern analytical techniques, we geolocated previously undocumented photographs of bleaching and built a detailed picture of environmental conditions which show that the two episodes were driven by different proximate causes. The February bleaching coincided with highest annual seawater temperatures and Degree Heating Weeks, coupled with early afternoon aerial exposure leading to intense heating in tide pools and corals subjected to high solar insolation. Zooxanthellae densities would also have been at a seasonal low and the corals particularly susceptible to bleaching stress. In contrast in June, the seaward slope, normally submerged during the daytime, was aerially exposed to the afternoon sun and although seawater temperatures were 5 °C cooler than in the summer and despite relatively low sun altitudes and insolation in the winter, bleaching and mortality due to solar radiation was clearly visible on faces of exposed corals oriented towards the sun. Whilst reports of widespread temperature driven coral bleaching are commonplace today in an era of global warming, this paper demonstrates how similar environmental cues were involved a century ago and highlights the additional complexity of coral survival in the intertidal zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local meteorology over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can significantly influence ocean temperatures, which in turn impacts coral ecosystems. While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides insight into the expected synoptic states, it lacks details of anticipated sub‐seasonal weather variability at local scales. This study explores the influence of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian tropical climate, both independently and in combination with ENSO, focusing on GBR impacts. We find that during El Niño periods, including the summer of 2009/10, faster propagating MJO patterns can disrupt background warm, dry conditions, and potentially provide cooling relief via increased cloud cover and stronger winds. In La Niña periods, such as the summer of 2021/22, the MJO tends to be prevented from passing the Maritime continent, forcing it to remain in a standing pattern in the Indian Ocean. This leads to decreased cloud cover and weaker winds over the GBR, generating warm ocean anomalies. Plain Language Summary: Bleaching is likely when tropical corals are exposed to ocean temperatures above a threshold for a prolonged period. In austral summer, tropical weather over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can vary from hot and sunny to stormy with rain and strong winds. During El Niño, summer weather over the GBR is typically warm, still, and dry, increasing the likelihood of coral bleaching due to increased exposure to solar radiation and decreased mixing. During La Niña, tropical storms, with cooling effects through increased rainfall and cloud cover, are more typical. The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) is an eastward moving storm pattern near the equator that can also influence the background climate over the GBR. We find that the MJO can significantly influence the weather variability over the GBR, altering the expected states of El Niño and La Niña periods. Key Points: Composite maps show how the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) can change meteorological patterns on the Great Barrier ReefCluster analysis is used to show the types of MJO propagation patterns likely to occur during El Niño and La Niña periodsOcean temperature variability is discussed with El Niño/La Niña phases as the background states and the MJO as a sub‐seasonal modulator [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade wind clouds are ubiquitous across the subtropical oceans, including the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), playing an important role in modulating the regional energy budget. These shallow clouds, however, are by their nature sensitive to perturbations in both their thermodynamic environment and microphysical background. In this study, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a convection-permitting configuration at 1 km resolution to examine the sensitivity of the trade wind clouds to different local forcings over the GBR. A range of local forcings including coastal topography, sea surface temperature (SST), and local aerosol loading is examined. This study shows a strong response of cloud fraction and accumulated precipitation to orographic forcing both over the mountains and upwind over the GBR. Orographic lifting, low-level convergence, and lower troposphere stability are found to be crucial in explaining the cloud and precipitation features over the coastal mountains downwind of the GBR. However, clouds over the upwind ocean are more strongly constrained by the trade wind inversion, whose properties are, in part, regulated by the coastal topography. On the scales considered in this study, the warm-cloud fraction and the ensuant precipitation over the GBR show only a small response to the local SST forcing, with this response being tied to the surface flux and lower troposphere stability. Cloud microphysical properties, including cloud droplet number concentration, liquid water path, and precipitation, are sensitive to the changes in atmospheric aerosol population over the GBR. While cloud fraction shows little responses, a slight deepening of the simulated clouds is evident over the upwind region in correspondence to the increased aerosol number concentration. A downwind effect of aerosol loading on simulated cloud and precipitation properties is further noted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change projections for coral reefs are founded exclusively on sea surface temperatures (SST). While SST projections are relevant for the shallowest reefs, neglecting ocean stratification overlooks the striking differences in temperature experienced by deeper reefs for all or part of the year. Density stratification creates a buoyancy barrier partitioning the upper and lower parts of the water column. Here, we mechanistically downscale climate models and quantify patterns of thermal stratification above mesophotic corals (depth 30 to 50 m) of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Stratification insulates many offshore regions of the GBR from heatwaves at the surface. However, this protection is lost once global average temperatures exceed ~3 ℃ above preindustrial, after which mesophotic temperatures surpass a recognized threshold of 30 ℃ for coral mortality. Bottom temperatures on the GBR (30 to 50 m) from 2050 to 2060 are estimated to increase by ~0.5 to 1 ℃ under lower climate emissions (SSP1-1.9) and ~1.2 to 1.7 ℃ under higher climate emissions (SSP5-8.5). In short, mesophotic coral reefs are also threatened by climate change and research might prioritize the sensitivity of such corals to stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying ecological memory could be done at several levels from the rate of physiological changes in an ecosystem all the way down to responses at the genetic level. One way of unlocking the information encoded in a collective environmental memory is to examine the recorded time-series data generated by different components of an ecosystem. In this paper, we probe into the case of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) which is threatened by elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) and ocean acidification attributed to rising atmospheric CO2 levels. Specifically, we investigate the interrelated dynamics between the degradation of the GBR, SST, and rising atmospheric CO2 levels, by considering three datasets: (a) the mean percentage hard coral cover of the GBR from the archives of the Australian Institute of Marine Science; (b) SST close to the GBR from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and (c) the Keeling curve for atmospheric CO2 levels measured by the Mauna Loa Observatory. We show that fluctuating observables in these datasets have the same memory behavior described by a non-Markovian stochastic process. All three datasets show a good match between empirical and analytical mean square deviation. An explicit analytical form for the corresponding probability density function is obtained which obeys a modified diffusion equation with a time dependent diffusion coefficient. This study provides a new perspective on the similarities of and interaction between the GBR's declining hard coral cover, SST, and rising atmospheric CO2 levels by putting all three systems into one unified framework indexed by a memory parameter μ and a characteristic frequency ν . The short-time dynamics of CO2 levels and SST fall in the superdiffusive regime, while the GBR exhibits hyperballistic fluctuation in percent coral cover with the highest values for μ and ν . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increases in the magnitude, frequency, and duration of warm seawater temperatures are causing mass coral mortality events across the globe. Although, even during the most extensive bleaching events, some reefs escape exposure to severe stress, constituting potential refugia. Here, we identify present‐day climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and project their persistence into the future. To do this, we apply semi‐dynamic downscaling to an ensemble of climate projections released for the IPCC's recent sixth Assessment Report. We find that GBR locations experiencing the least thermal stress over the past 20 years have done so because of their oceanographic circumstance, which implies that longer‐term persistence of climate refugia is feasible. Specifically, tidal and wind mixing of warm water away from the sea surface appears to provide relief from warming. However, on average this relative advantage only persists until global warming exceeds ~3°C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) products that can resolve fine scale features, such as sub-mesoscale eddies, ocean fronts and coastal upwelling, are increasingly in demand. In response to user requirements for gap-free, highest spatial resolution, best quality and highest accuracy SST data, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) produces operational, real-time Multi-sensor SST level 3 products by compositing SST from Advanced Very-High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors on Meteorological Operational satellite (MetOp)-B and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 18, along with SST from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) and NOAA 20 polar-orbiting satellites for the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) project. Here we discuss our method to combine data from different sensors and present validation of the satellite-derived SST against in situ SST data. The Multi-sensor Level 3 Super Collated (L3S) SSTs exhibit significantly greater spatial coverage and improved accuracy compared with the pre-existing IMOS AVHRR-only L3S SSTs. When compared to the Geo Polar Blended level 4 analysis SST data over the Great Barrier Reef, Multi-sensor L3S SST differs by less than 1 ° C while exhibiting a wider range of SSTs over the region. It shows more variability and restores small-scale features better than the Geo Polar Blended level 4 analysis SST data. The operational Multi-sensor L3S SST products are used as input for applications such as IMOS OceanCurrent and the BoM ReefTemp Next-Generation Coral Bleaching Nowcasting service and provide useful insight into the study of marine heatwaves and ocean upwelling in near-coastal regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperate organisms are generally exposed to a more variable and cooler climate than tropical organisms, and are therefore expected to have broader thermal tolerance and a different thermal performance curve. This study investigated these hypotheses by comparing the thermal performance of two common tropical coral species found in the Great Barrier Reef with the two most common temperate coral species from the Mediterranean Sea. Photosynthesis rates, dark respiration rates, maximum PSII quantum yield (Fv/Fm) and electron transport rates (rETRm) were measured on coral fragments exposed to an acute temperature increase and decrease up to 5 °C above and below the average environmental seawater temperature. Dark respiration rates and Fv/Fm increased linearly with temperature, suggesting broad thermal tolerance. For photosynthesis and rETRm, the performance breadths were surprisingly similar between the tropical and temperate species. However, the thermal optimum for performance was generally below the local average temperature, and only coincided with the prevailing environmental temperature for one of the tropical species. The broad thermal tolerance for photosynthesis displayed in this study supports previous observations that corals can survive short periods of abnormally warm temperatures and suggests that corals adopt thermal generalist strategies to cope with temperature variation in the environment. Nevertheless, current mean temperatures are 10–30% above the thermal optimum for the species studied here, demonstrating that conditions are already pushing the boundaries of coral thermal tolerance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are concerns that reefs will transition from net calcifying to net dissolving in the near future due to decreasing calcification and increasing dissolution rates. Here, we present in situ rates of net ecosystem calcification (NEC) and net ecosystem production (NEP) on a coral reef flat using a slack‐water approach. Up until dusk, the reef was net calcifying in most months but shifted to net dissolution in austral summer, coinciding with high respiration rates and a lower aragonite saturation state (Ωarag). The estimated sediment contribution to NEC ranged from 8% to 21% during the day and 45% to 78% at night, indicating that high rates of sediment dissolution may cause the transition to reef dissolution. This late afternoon seasonal transition to negative NEC may be an early warning sign of the reef shifting to a net dissolving state and may be occurring on other reefs. Plain Language Summary: Positive rates of net ecosystem calcification and net ecosystem production are regarded as fundamental to the healthy functioning of coral reef ecosystems. In particular, positive ecosystem calcification is required to maintain the structural complexity that sustains many of the ecosystem functions of coral reefs. While most reefs are currently net calcifying, there is growing concern that increased pressures from rising sea surface temperatures and reductions in ocean surface pH (ocean acidification [OA]) will both depress coral calcification and increase dissolution. This could result in a shift of the whole ecosystem closer to a state of net dissolution before the end of the century. Here, we measured hourly afternoon rates of net ecosystem calcification and production on a coral reef flat over 10 months of the year. We found that the reef flat was already showing signs of net dissolution during certain times of the year (austral summer), which may become more extreme under global climate change. These temporary shifts in coral reef metabolism may provide insight into how the ecosystem will respond to future, more persistent periods of net dissolution driven by OA. Key Points: Ecosystem calcification and sediment calcification on Heron Island reef exceed dissolution such that net ecosystem calcification (NEC) remains largely positiveShallow, calcium carbonate sediments contribute 8%–12% of reef NEC during the day and at least 45%–78% of reef NEC at nightThe seasonal shifts to negative net ecosystem calcification before dusk may be a precursor of periodic net ecosystem dissolution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is an internationally recognized and widely studied ecosystem, yet little is known about its sea surface temperature (SST) evolution since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (~20 kyr BP). Here, we present the first paleo‐application of Isopora coral‐derived SST calibrations to a suite of 25 previously published fossil Isopora from the central GBR spanning ~25–11 kyr BP. The resultant multicoral Sr/Ca‐ and δ18O‐derived SST anomaly (SSTA) histories are placed within the context of published relative sea level, reef sequence, and coralgal reef assemblage evolution. Our new calculations indicate SSTs were cooler on average by ~5–5.5°C at Noggin Pass (~17°S) and ~7–8°C at Hydrographer's Passage (~20°S) (Sr/Ca‐derived) during the LGM, in line with previous estimates (Felis et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5102). We focus on contextualizing the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC, ~12.9–11.7 kyr BP), whose Southern Hemisphere expression, in particular in Australia, is elusive and poorly constrained. Our record does not indicate cooling during the YDC with near‐modern temperatures reached during this interval on the GBR, supporting an asymmetric hemispheric presentation of this climate event. Building on a previous study (Felis et al., 2014, https://doi.org10.1038/ncomms5102), these fossil Isopora SSTA data from the GBR provide new insights into the deglacial reef response, with near‐modern warming during the YDC, since the LGM. Key Points: Near‐modern sea surface temperatures were reached during the Younger Dryas Chronozone on the Great Barrier ReefSea surface temperature, reef assemblage, and sea level data provide an overview of the evolution of the Great Barrier Reef since the LGMIsopora‐based sea surface temperature calibrations can be applied to fossil Isopora to understand environmental change on coral reefs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article describes 3D medium (4km) and high (500m) horizontal resolution ocean models developed for the Coral Sea with a particular focus on the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. The medium resolution model is underpinning a 10 year reanalysis and a forecast demonstrator system for maritime monitoring. The ocean models have been developed to assist the management of the Great Barrier Reef given the existence of a number of stressors acting on the reef. The presented models aim to represent physical stressors that include thermal, salinity and flooding rivers. The river discharge is tracked by passive and age tracers. They can provide concentrations to identify the area/volume influenced by flood water. This paper gives an overview of the forward non-linear models with the aim to assess their performance. The models have been evaluated over a two year period spanning January 2009–March 2011 including the 2010/2011 La Nina and the advent of Tropical Cyclone Yasi in early 2011 that contributed to one of the largest river discharge events recorded over northern Queensland. The models' performance is investigated on a full domain scale via means of satellite sea surface temperature (SST), expendable bathythermograph (XBT) and drifter data. Over the shelf and the Great Barrier Reef lagoon, available tide gauges, Ocean Colour, Chlorophyll-a and Queensland's Integrated Marine Observing System (QIMOS) mooring data of temperature, salinity and velocity have been used to assess the models. Results suggest that the high resolution model gives better statistics in terms of mean absolute deviation and bias compared to the medium resolution model for subsurface temperature and salinity over the deep ocean. Moreover, sea surface temperature performance is similar for both models. Over the lagoon and shelf both models' performance is mixed. The high resolution model displays a consistent warm bias on the order of 0.3 °C over the shallow well mixed stations throughout the year. However, the 4km model displays larger variability in this region. It tends to be too warm in summer and too cool in winter when compared to moorings. Modelled velocities are assessed via means of the QIMOS moorings. Overall the high resolution model fares better in terms of current direction with an average veering of 13° vs. 22°. The models' performance is comparable in terms of current speed over the shallow moorings. However, the high resolution model is better equipped to represent steeper shelves and this results at times in better performance for velocity and temperature, particularly over Palm Passage. A large focus has been placed on including and assessing passive tracer dynamics emanating from river discharge. 25 river sources have been added across the models domain together with a set of one-dimensional channels representing the volume flux of brine. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate the models' ability to reproduce mean features of observed plumes. A major river discharge event has been examined in further detail. Both models are able to reproduce the low salinity signal present in the observations in the upper level to a satisfactory degree. The 4km model matches the observed strength and duration of the fresh water plume substantially better than the high resolution model in this case. • High and medium resolution ocean models for the Great Barrier Reef are presented. • Modelled passive and age tracers are compared to observed river plumes. • Intrusive upwelling onto the Great Barrier Reef may be affected by model resolution. • Horizontal model resolution affects performance over the Coral Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review the evidence for bio-regulation by coral reefs of local climate through stress-induced emissions of aerosol precursors, such as dimethylsulfide. This is an issue that goes to the core of the coral ecosystem's ability to maintain homeostasis in the face of increasing climate change impacts and other anthropogenic pressures. We examine this through an analysis of data on aerosol emissions by corals of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We focus on the relationship with local stressors, such as surface irradiance levels and sea surface temperature, both before and after notable coral bleaching events. We conclude that coral reefs may be able to regulate their exposure to environmental stressors through modification of the optical properties of the atmosphere, however this ability may be impaired as climate change intensifies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Widespread coral bleaching across the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in 2016 is often reportedly caused by El Niño and/or global warming. However, the GBR is not in a region where it is straightforward to anticipate sea surface temperature (SST) warming during El Niño, and the role of climate change is unclear. This study uses a diverse range of observations to investigate the physical causes of SST anomalies that developed on the GBR in 2016. Warm SST anomalies developed in two stages. Initial warming was caused by El Niño shifting the global‐scale pattern of convection, increasing solar radiation in the Coral Sea. The warm anomaly was extended and amplified near the coast by a terrestrial heat wave propagating across eastern Australia, further warming the GBR through turbulent heat flux. It is concluded that El Niño caused the SST anomaly, and global warming increased its amplitude and extended it by several months. Key Points: A quantitative heat budget analysis of the 2016 marine heat wave in the Great Barrier Reef lights a path to large‐scale climate processesThe waning El Niño of 2015/2016 warmed regional seas with solar radiation; a terrestrial heat wave in Australia intensified coastal warmingLong‐term trends in marine and terrestrial records clarify role of global warming, widespread coral mortality in 2016 unlikely without it [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Great Barrier Reef (GBR) marine park managers rely on seasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) to better inform and coordinate their management responses to mass coral bleaching events. The Bureau of Meteorology's new seasonal forecast model ACCESS-S1 is well placed for integration in marine park managers' risk management systems, with model benefits including high ocean resolution and probabilistic forecasts from a 99 member ensemble. The SST forecast skill was assessed for the GBR region against satellite SST observations over the model hindcast period 1990–2012. ACCESS-S1 was most successful in forecasting larger warm anomalies in the GBR associated with climate drivers that persisted over many months (e.g. ENSO events). The model consistently performed better than persistence reference forecasts over the critical summer period. The model was less successful in forecasting short-term events driven by regional weather patterns, with a reduction in skill between pre-monsoon and post-monsoon onset. Forecasts in the northern GBR often exhibited the highest skill. The model was successfully able to predict SST anomalies associated with the peak of the East Australian Current. The ability of the model to discriminate between two dichotomous events (whether or not a threshold is exceeded) ranged from excellent at lead time 0 (first month forecast) to reasonable at lead times 1 and 2. Increasing the ensemble size using time-lagged ensemble members showed improvement in probabilistic skill for warm anomaly events. Model reliability showed good ability in matching the observed frequency for warm anomaly events, although slightly overconfident. The results demonstrate that ACCESS-S1 can provide skilful SST forecasts in support of coral reef management activities on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. Seasonal SST forecasts from ACCESS-S1 are currently available at the Bureau of Meteorology's website for the GBR and greater Coral Sea region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean warming threatens the functioning of coral reef ecosystems by inducing mass coral bleaching and mortality events. The link between temperature and coral bleaching is now well-established based on observations that mass bleaching events usually occur when seawater temperatures are anomalously high. However, times of high heat stress but without coral bleaching are equally important because they can inform an understanding of factors that regulate temperature-induced bleaching. Here, we investigate the absence of mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) during austral summer 2004. Using four gridded sea surface temperature data products, validated with in situ temperature loggers, we demonstrate that the summer of 2004 was among the warmest summers of the satellite era (1982-2017) on the GBR. At least half of the GBR experienced temperatures that were high enough to initiate bleaching in other years, yet mass bleaching was not reported during 2004. The absence of bleaching is not fully explained by wind speed or cloud cover. Rather, 2004 is clearly differentiated from bleaching years by the slow speed of the East Australian Current (EAC) offshore of the GBR. An anomalously slow EAC during summer 2004 may have dampened the upwelling of nutrient-rich waters onto the GBR shelf, potentially mitigating bleaching due to the lower susceptibility of corals to heat stress in low-nutrient conditions. Although other factors such as irradiance or acclimatization may have played a role in the absence of mass bleaching, 2004 remains a key case study for demonstrating the dynamic nature of coral responses to marine heatwaves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trichodesmium, a filamentous bloom-forming marine cyanobacterium, plays a key role in the biogeochemistry of oligotrophic ocean regions because of the ability to fix nitrogen. Naturally occurring in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the contribution of Trichodesmium to the nutrient budget may be of the same order as that entering the system via catchment runoff. However, the cyclicity of Trichodesmium in the GBR is poorly understood and sparsely documented because of the lack of sufficient observations. This study provides the first systematic analysis of Trichodesmium spatial and temporal occurrences in the GBR over the decade-long MERIS ocean color mission (2002–2012). Trichodesmium surface expressions were detected using the Maximum Chlorophyll Index (MCI) applied to MERIS satellite imagery of the GBR lagoonal waters. The MCI performed well (76%), albeit tested on a limited set of images (N = 25) coincident with field measurements. A north (Cape York) to south (Fitzroy) increase in the extent, frequency and timing of the surface expressions characterized the GBR, with surface expressions extending over several hundreds of kilometers. The two southernmost subregions Mackay and Fitzroy accounted for the most (70%) bloom events. The bloom timing of Trichodesmium varied from May in the north to November in the south, with wet season conditions less favorable to Trichodesmium aggregations. MODIS-Aqua Sea Surface Temperature (SST) datasets, wind speed and field measurements of nutrient concentrations were used in combination with MCI positive instances to assess the blooms’ driving factors. Low wind speed (<6 m.s-1) and SST > 24°C were associated with the largest surface aggregations. Generalized additive models (GAM) indicated an increase in bloom occurrences over the 10-year period with seasonal bloom patterns regionally distinct. Interannual variability in SST partially (14%) explained bloom occurrences, and other drivers, such as the subregion and the nutrient budget, likely regulate Trichodesmium surface aggregations in the GBR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seagrass meadows are at increasing risk of thermal stress and recent work has shown that water temperature around seagrass meadows could be used as an indicator for seagrass condition. Satellite thermal data have not been linked to the thermal properties of seagrass meadows. This work assessed the covariation between 20 in situ average daily temperature logger measurement sites in tropical seagrass meadows and satellite derived daytime SST (sea surface temperature) from the daytime MODIS and Landsat sensors along the Great Barrier Reef coast in Australia. Statistically significant (R2 = 0.787-0.939) positive covariations were found between in situ seagrass logger temperatures and MODIS SST temperature and Landsat sensor temperatures at all sites along the reef. The MODIS SST were consistently higher than in situ temperature at the majority of the sites, possibly due to the sensor’s larger pixel size and location offset from field sites. Landsat thermal data were lower than field-measured SST, due to differences in measurement scales and times. When refined significantly and tested over larger areas, this approach could be used to monitor seagrass health over large (106 km2) areas in a similar manner to using satellite SST for predicting thermal stress for corals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article provides an overview of geology-related research in January to February 2015 issues of various publications. In "Daily Telegraph," the Scottish prehistoric creature discovered in the Jurassic rocks of the Isle of Skye was named Dearcmhara shawcrossi. A rebound of the earth's crust under Iceland due to global warming was reported in "Science Daily." Ways to genetically alter the Great Barrier Reef corals to cope with rising sea temperatures were reported in "The Guardian."

The microbiome emits informative signals of biological organization and environmental pressure that aid ecosystem monitoring and prediction. Are the many signals reducible to a habitat-specific portfolio that characterizes ecosystem health? Does an optimally structured microbiome imply a resilient microbiome? To answer these questions, we applied our novel Eco-Evo Mandala to bacterioplankton data from four habitats within the Great Barrier Reef, to explore how patterns in community structure, function and genetics signal habitat-specific organization and departures from theoretical optimality. The Mandala revealed communities departing from optimality in habitat-specific ways, mostly along structural and functional traits related to bacterioplankton abundance and interaction distributions (reflected by ϵ and λ as power law and exponential distribution parameters), which are not linearly associated with each other. River and reef communities were similar in their relatively low abundance and interaction disorganization (low ϵ and λ) due to their protective structured habitats. On the contrary, lagoon and estuarine inshore reefs appeared the most disorganized due to the ocean temperature and biogeochemical stress. Phylogenetic distances (D) were minimally informative in characterizing bacterioplankton organization. However, dominant populations, such as Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Cyanobacteria, were largely responsible for community patterns, being generalists with a large functional gene repertoire (high D) that increases resilience. The relative balance of these populations was found to be habitat-specific and likely related to systemic environmental stress. The position on the Mandala along the three fundamental traits, as well as fluctuations in this ecological state, conveys information about the microbiome's health (and likely ecosystem health considering bacteria-based multitrophic dependencies) as divergence from the expected relative optimality. The Eco-Evo Mandala emphasizes how habitat and the microbiome's interaction network topology are first- and second-order factors for ecosystem health evaluation over taxonomic species richness. Unhealthy microbiome communities and unbalanced microbes are identified not by macroecological indicators but by mapping their impact on the collective proportion and distribution of interactions, which regulates the microbiome's ecosystem function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan‐tropical episode of coral bleaching. In the southern hemisphere summer of March–April 2016, we used aerial surveys to measure the level of bleaching on 1,156 individual reefs throughout the 2,300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef, the world's largest coral reef system. The accuracy of the aerial scores was ground‐truthed with detailed underwater surveys of bleaching at 260 sites (104 reefs), allowing us to compare aerial and underwater bleaching data with satellite‐derived temperatures and with associated model predictions of bleaching. The severity of bleaching on individual reefs in 2016 was tightly correlated with the level of local heat exposure: the southernmost region of the Great Barrier Reef escaped with only minor bleaching because summer temperatures there were close to average. Gradients in nutrients and turbidity from inshore to offshore across the Great Barrier Reef had minimal effect on the severity of bleaching. Similarly, bleaching was equally severe on reefs that are open or closed to fishing, once the level of satellite‐derived heat exposure was accounted for. The level of post‐bleaching mortality, measured underwater after 7–8 months, was tightly correlated with the aerial scores measured at the peak of bleaching. Similarly, reefs with a high aerial bleaching score also experienced major shifts in species composition due to extensive mortality of heat‐sensitive species. Reefs with low bleaching scores did not change in composition, and some showed minor increases in coral cover. Two earlier mass bleaching events occurred on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998 and 2002, that were less severe than 2016. In 2016, <9% of scored reefs had no bleaching, compared to 42% in 2002 and 44% in 1998. Conversely, the proportion of reefs that were severely bleached (>60% of corals affected) was four times higher in 2016. The geographic footprint of each of the three events is distinctive, and matches satellite‐derived sea surface temperature patterns. Our aerial surveys indicate that past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. This data set of aerial bleaching scores provides a historical baseline for comparison with future bleaching events. No copyright restrictions apply to the use of this data set other than citing this publication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]