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Rationale, aims and objective: Substituting outpatient hospital care with primary care is seen as a solution to decrease unnecessary referrals to outpatient hospital care and decrease rising healthcare costs. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the effects on quality of care, health and costs outcomes of substituting outpatient hospital care with primary care-based interventions, which are performed by medical specialists in face-to-face consultations in a primary care setting. Method: The systematic review was performed using the PICO framework. Original papers in which the premise of the intervention was to substitute outpatient hospital care with primary care through the involvement of a medical specialist in a primary care setting were eligible. Results: A total of 14 papers were included. A substitution intervention in general practitioner (GP) practices was described in 11 papers, three described a joint consultation intervention in which GPs see patients together with a medical specialist. This study showed that substitution initiatives result mostly in favourable outcomes compared to outpatient hospital care. The initiatives resulted mostly in shorter waiting lists, shorter clinic waiting times and higher patient satisfaction. Costs for treating one extra patient seemed to be higher in the intervention settings. This was mainly caused by inefficient planning of consultation hours and lower patient numbers. Conclusions: Despite the fact that internationally a lot has been written about the importance of performing substitution interventions in which preventing unnecessary referrals to outpatient hospital care was the aim, only 14 papers were included. Future systematic reviews should focus on the effects on the Triple Aim of substitution initiatives in which other healthcare professions than medical specialists are involved along with new technologies, such as e-consults. Additionally, to gain more insight into the effects of substitution initiatives operating in a dynamic healthcare context, it is important to keep evaluating the interventions in a longitudinal study design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Non-medical prescribing has the potential to deliver innovative healthcare within limited finances. However, uptake has been slow, and a proportion of non-medical prescribers do not use the qualification. This systematic review aimed to describe the facilitators and barriers to non-medical prescribing in the United Kingdom. Methods: The systematic review and thematic analysis included qualitative and mixed methods papers reporting facilitators and barriers to independent non-medical prescribing in the United Kingdom. The following databases were searched to identify relevant papers: AMED, ASSIA, BNI, CINAHL, EMBASE, ERIC, MEDLINE, Open Grey, Open access theses and dissertations, and Web of Science. Papers published between 2006 and March 2017 were included. Studies were quality assessed using a validated tool (QATSDD), then underwent thematic analysis. The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42015019786). Results: Of 3991 potentially relevant identified studies, 42 were eligible for inclusion. The studies were generally of moderate quality (83%), and most (71%) were published 2007–2012. The nursing profession dominated the studies (30/42). Thematic analysis identified three overarching themes: non-medical prescriber, human factors, and organisational aspects. Each theme consisted of several sub-themes; the four most highly mentioned were ‘medical professionals’, ‘area of competence’, ‘impact on time’ and ‘service’. Sub-themes were frequently interdependent on each other, having the potential to act as a barrier or facilitator depending on circumstances. Discussion: Addressing the identified themes and subthemes enables strategies to be developed to support and optimise non-medical prescribing. Further research is required to identify if similar themes are encountered by other non-medical prescribing groups than nurses and pharmacists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Physical inactivity has been identified as a leading risk factor for premature mortality globally, and adolescents, in particular, have low physical activity levels. Schools have been identified as a setting to tackle physical inactivity. Economic evidence of school-based physical activity programmes is limited, and the costs of these programmes are not always collected in full. This paper describes a micro-costing and cost-consequence analysis of the ‘Girls Active’ secondary school-based programme as part of a cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT). Micro-costing and cost-consequence analyses were conducted using bespoke cost diaries and questionnaires to collect programme delivery information. Outcomes for the cost-consequence analysis included health-related quality of life measured by the Child Health Utility-9D (CHU-9D), primary care General Practitioner (GP) and school-based (school nurse and school counsellor) service use as part of a cluster RCT of the ‘Girls Active’ programme. Overall, 1,752 secondary pupils were recruited and a complete case sample of 997 participants (Intervention n = 570, Control n = 427) was used for the cost-consequence analysis. The micro-costing analysis demonstrated that, depending upon how the programme was delivered, ‘Girls Active’ costs ranged from £1,054 (£2 per pupil, per school year) to £3,489 (£7 per pupil, per school year). The least costly option was to absorb ‘Girls Active’ strictly within curriculum hours. The analysis demonstrated no effect for the programme for the three main outcomes of interest (health-related quality of life, physical activity and service use).Micro-costing analyses demonstrated the costs of delivering the ‘Girls Active’ programme, addressing a gap in the United Kingdom (UK) literature regarding economic evidence from school-based physical activity programmes. This paper provides recommendations for those gathering cost and service use data in school settings to supplement validated and objective measures, furthering economic research in this field. Trial registration: -ISRCTN, . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Non-medical prescribing was introduced into the United Kingdom (UK) to improve patient care, through extending healthcare professionals’ roles. More recent government health service policy focuses on the increased demand and the need for efficiency. This systematic policy review aimed to describe any changes in government policy position and the role that non-medical prescribing plays in healthcare provision. Method: The systematic policy review included policy and consultation documents that describe independent non-medical prescribing. A pre-defined protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42015019786). Professional body websites, other relevant websites and the following databases were searched to identify relevant documents: HMIC, Lexis Nexis, UK Government Web Archive, UKOP, UK Parliamentary Papers and Web of Science. Documents published between 2006 and February 2018 were included. Results and discussion: Following exclusions, 45 documents were selected for review; 23 relating to policy or strategy and 22 to consultations. Of the former, 13/23 were published 2006–2010 and the remainder since 2013. Two main themes were identified: chronological aspects and healthcare provision. In the former, a publication gap for policy documents resulted from a change in government and associated major healthcare service reorganisation. In the later, the role of non-medical prescribing was found to have evolved to support efficient service delivery, and cost reduction. For many professions, prescribing appears embedded into practice; however, the pharmacy profession continues to produce policy documents, suggesting that prescribing is not yet perceived as normal practice. Conclusion: Prescribing appears to be more easily adopted into practice where it can form part of the overall care of the patient. Where new roles are required to be established, then prescribing takes longer to be universally adopted. While this review concerns policy and practice in the UK, the aspect of role adoption has wider potential implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Centile curves and standard scores are common in epidemiological research. However, standardised norms and centile growth curves for language disorder that reflect the entire UK local school population do not exist. Methods: Scores on six language indices assessing receptive and expressive functioning of children were obtained from the SCALES population survey. Monolingual English speaking participants were aged between five and nine years. Children who attended special schools at study intake, or who were learning English as an additional language were excluded. We constructed language norms using the LMS method of standardisation which allows for skewed measurements. We made use of probability weights that were produced from a two-step logistic model. Distributions of estimated standard scores from an intensively assessed sub-population and from the full population were contrasted to demonstrate the role of weights. Results: Non-overlapping centile curves and standardised scores at each age were obtained for the six language indices. The use of weights was essential at retrieving the target distribution of the scores. An online calculator that estimates standardised scores for the measures was constructed and made freely available. Conclusions: The findings highlight the usefulness and flexibility of the LMS method at dealing with the standardisation of linguistic and educational measures that are sufficiently continuous. The paper adds to the existing literature by providing population norms for a number of language tests that were calculated from the same group of individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known of the patterns of physical activity, standing and sitting by office workers. However, insight into these behaviours is of growing interest, notably in regard to public health priorities to reduce non-communicable disease risk factors associated with high levels of sitting time and low levels of physical activity. With the advent and increasing availability of indoor tracking systems it is now becoming possible to build detailed pictures of the usage of indoor spaces. This paper reports initial results of indoor tracking used in conjunction with the ActivPAL activity monitoring device. In this paper we give an overview of the usage of the tracking system and its installation and illustrate some of the resultant data. We also provide preliminary results that investigate the relationship between location, light physical activity and sitting in a small sample of office workers (n=33) from two separate office environments in order to demonstrate the relevance and explanatory power of the technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Castanea sativa is classified as non-indigenous in Britain and Ireland. It was long held that it was first introduced into Britain by the Romans, until a recent study found no corroborative evidence of its growing here before c. AD 650. This paper presents new data on the genetic diversity of C. sativa in Britain and Ireland and potential ancestral sources in continental Europe. Microsatellite markers and analytical methods tested in previous European studies were used to genotype over 600 C. sativa trees and coppice stools, sampled from ancient semi-natural woodlands, secondary woodlands and historic cultural sites across Britain and Ireland. A single overall genepool with a diverse admixture of genotypes was found, containing two sub groups differentiating Wales from Ireland, with discrete geographical and typological clusters. C. sativa genotypes in Britain and Ireland were found to relate predominantly to some sites in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Romania, but not to Greece, Turkey or eastern parts of Europe. C. sativa has come to Britain and Ireland from these western European areas, which had acted as refugia in the Last Glacial Maximum; we compare its introduction with the colonization/translocation of oak, ash, beech and hazel into Britain and Ireland. Clones of C. sativa were identified in Britain, defining for the first time the antiquity of some ancient trees and coppice stools, evincing both natural regeneration and anthropogenic propagation over many centuries and informing the chronology of the species’ arrival in Britain. This new evidence on the origins and antiquity of British and Irish C. sativa trees enhances their conservation and economic significance, important in the context of increasing threats from environmental change, pests and pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is commonly regarded as the key pillar of the European climate policy and as the main unifying tool to create a unique carbon price all over Europe. The UK has always played a crucial role in the EU ETS, being one of the most active national registry and a crucial hub for the exchange of allowances in the market. Brexit, therefore, could deeply modify the number and directions of such exchanges as well as the centrality of the other countries in this system. To investigate these issues, the present paper exploits network analysis tools to compare the structure of the EU ETS market in its first two phases with and without the UK, investigating a few different scenarios that might emerge from a possible reallocation of the transactions that have involved UK partners. We find that without the UK the EU ETS network would become in general much more homogeneous, though results may change focusing on the type of accounts involved in the transactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dementias in high income countries are set to be the third major burden of disease even as older people are increasingly required to think for themselves how to provide for their lives in retirement. Meanwhile the period of older age continues to extend with increase in life expectancy. This challenge demands an understanding of how cognition changes over an extended period in later life. But studying cognitive ageing in the population faces a difficulty from the fact that older respondents are liable to leave (attrite) before study completion. This study tested three hypotheses: trajectories of cognitive ageing in Britain show an improvement beyond the age of 50; and they are lifted by secular improvement in cognition across cohorts; lastly they are susceptible to distortion due to attrition. Methods and Findings: Using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, this paper studied trajectories of episodic memory of Britons aged 50–89 from 2002 to 2013 (N = 5931). Using joint models the analysis found that levels of episodic memory follow a curvilinear shape, not a steady decline, in later life. The findings also revealed secular improvement in cognitive ageing such that as a cohort is being replaced episodic memory levels in the population improve. The analysis lastly demonstrated that failure to simultaneously model attrition can produce distorted pictures of cognitive ageing. Conclusion: Old age in this century is not necessarily a period dominated by cognitive decline. In identifying behavioural factors associated with better cognitive ageing, such as social connections of traditional and online kinds, the paper raises possibilities of mustering an adequate response to the cognition challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: End-of-life care policy has a focus on enabling patients to die in their preferred place; this is believed for most to be home. This review assesses patient preferences for place of death examining: the extent of unreported preferences, the importance of patient factors (place of care and health diagnosis) and who reports preferences. Methods and Findings: Systematic literature review of 7 electronic databases, grey literature, backwards citations from included studies and Palliative Medicine hand search. Included studies published between 2000–2015, reporting original, quantifiable results of adult UK preferences for place of death. Of 10826 articles reviewed, 61 met the inclusion criteria. Summary charts present preferences for place of death by health diagnosis, where patients were asked and who reported the preference. These charts are recalculated to include ‘missing data,’ the views of those whose preferences were not asked, expressed or reported or absent in studies. Missing data were common. Across all health conditions when missing data were excluded the majority preference was for home: when missing data were included, it was not known what proportion of patients with cancer, non-cancer or multiple conditions preferred home. Patients, family proxies and public all expressed a majority preference for home when missing data were excluded: when included, it was not known what proportion of patients or family proxies preferred home. Where patients wished to die was related to where they were asked their preference. Missing data calculations are limited to ‘reported’ data. Conclusions: It is unknown what proportion of patients prefers to die at home or elsewhere. Reported preferences for place of death often exclude the views of those with no preference or not asked: when ‘missing data’ are included, they supress the proportion of preferences for all locations. Caution should be exercised if asserting that most patients prefer to die at home. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Childhood obesity is a serious public health challenge and schools have been identified as an ideal place to implement prevention interventions. The aim of this study was to measure the cost-effectiveness of a multi-faceted school-based obesity prevention intervention targeting children aged 6–7 years when compared to ‘usual activities’. Methods: A cluster randomised controlled trial in 54 schools across the West Midlands (UK) was conducted. The 12-month intervention aimed to increase physical activity by 30 minutes per day and encourage healthy eating. Costs were captured from a public sector perspective and utility-based health related outcomes measured using the CHU-9D. Multiple imputation using chained equations was used to address missing data. The cost effectiveness was measured at 30 months from baseline using a hierarchical net-benefit regression framework, that controlled for clustering and prespecified covariates. Any uncertainty in the results was characterised using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results: At 30 months, the total adjusted incremental mean cost of the intervention was £155 (95% confidence interval [CI]: £139, £171), and the incremental mean QALYs gained was 0.006 (95% CI: -0.024, 0.036), per child. The incremental cost-effectiveness at 30 months was £26,815 per QALY and using a standard willingness to pay threshold of £30,000 per QALY, there was a 52% chance that the intervention was cost-effective. Conclusions: The cost-effectiveness of the school-based WAVES intervention was subject to substantial uncertainty. We therefore recommend more research to explore obesity prevention within schools as part of a wider systems approach to obesity prevention. Trial registration: This paper uses data collected by the WAVES trial: Controlled trials (registered May 2010). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patient and public involvement (PPI) is a requirement for UK health and social care research funding. Evidence for how best to implement PPI in research programmes, such as National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaborations for Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRCs), remains limited. This paper reports findings from an action research (AR) project called IMPRESS, which aims to strengthen PPI within CLAHRC East of England (EoE). IMPRESS combines AR with Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) to explore PPI within diverse case study projects, identifying actions to implement, test and refine to further embed PPI. Methods: We purposively selected CLAHRC EoE case study projects for in-depth analysis of PPI using NPT. Data were generated from project PPI documentation, semi-structured qualitative interviews with researchers and PPI contributors and focus groups. Transcripts and documents were subjected to abductive thematic analysis and triangulation within case. Systematic across case comparison of themes was undertaken with findings and implications refined through stakeholder consultation. Results: We interviewed 24 researchers and 13 PPI contributors and analysed 28 documents from 10 case studies. Three focus groups were held: two with researchers (n = 4 and n = 6) and one with PPI contributors (n = 5). Findings detail to what extent projects made sense of PPI, bought in to PPI, operationalised PPI and appraised it, thus identifying barriers and enablers to fully embedded PPI. Conclusion: Combining NPT with AR allows us to assess the embeddedness of PPI within projects and programme, to inform specific local action and report broader conceptual lessons for PPI knowledge and practice informing the development of an action framework for embedding PPI in research programmes. To embed PPI within similar programmes teams, professionals, disciplines and institutions should be recognised as variably networked into existing PPI support. Further focus and research is needed on sharing PPI learning and supporting innovation in PPI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The accessibility of services within community pharmacies provides an ideal opportunity to manage minor ailments, yet over £1.1 billion is spent by the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom (UK) in managing minor ailments in high cost settings. There is a need to review the evidence base around clinical effectiveness of pharmacy-based management of minor ailments since the absence of such may lead to under-utilisation of pharmacy services and non-implementation of available pharmacy service models. This study aimed to systematically review the methodological approaches used to assess clinical outcomes of pharmacy-based management of minor ailments in the research literature. Methods: A systematic review was conducted to identify relevant literature using the following databases: Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, IPA, CRD, CDSR, and Google Scholar from publication year 2000 onwards. Studies were included if they evaluated clinical outcomes of pharmacy-based management of any minor ailments, with or without a comparator setting such as Emergency Departments (EDs) or general practices. Screening and selection of titles, abstracts and full texts followed by data extraction and quality assessment (QA) was conducted. Paired researchers, from the team, reviewed papers using a protocol based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P). QA was undertaken using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP). Reporting was conducted in accordance with PRISMA checklist and statements. Results: A total of 19 studies were included. The majority of studies were observational, conducted in community pharmacies, and did not use a comparator participant group nor a comparator setting. Interventions included counselling, medicines supply and provision of advice on the management of minor ailments. One study used the randomised controlled trial (RCT) design with majority of the study utilising observational design. A range of clinical outcomes including symptom severity, pattern, resolution, and quality of life were reported. Methods used for the assessment of clinical outcomes were, overall, poorly reported. This included a lack of information on the development and validation of the data collection tools and the timing of baseline and follow-up data collection. Adverse clinical outcomes data were collected by only seven studies. Conclusions: Currently, there are methodological limitations in the studies that have sought to assess clinical outcomes of pharmacy-based management of minor ailments. Such lack of high quality evidence may contribute to failings to shift care from high cost settings, such as EDs and general practices. Generation of high quality evidence is likely to influence public choices when seeking care for minor ailments. There is scope for development of a core outcomes set specific to minor ailments management and development of a validated methodology for measuring such outcomes in a research study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Speech and language therapy provision for aphasia (a language disorder) post stroke has been studied over time through surveys completed by speech and language therapists. This paper revisits provision based on what was received by 278 patients in 21 UK speech and language therapy departments in 2014–2016. Aims: To explore the speech and language therapy received by community dwelling people with post stroke aphasia in the UK. Methods and procedures: A quantitative content analysis was conducted by two speech and language therapist researchers. Therapy goals recorded were coded into categories and subcategories. Descriptive statistics were used to identify the frequency with which goal categories were targeted, average therapy time received, length and frequency of therapy sessions, personnel involved and mode of delivery. Outcomes and results: Forty-five percent of participants were in receipt of therapy in the three month window observed. Six goal categories were identified. Rehabilitation was the most frequent (60%) followed by enabling (17.2%), review (4.3%), assessment (3.6%), supportive (3.5%) and activity to support therapy (2.8%). The median amount of therapy received in three months was 6.3 hours at an average of one 60-minute session every two weeks. Seventy-seven percent of therapy sessions were delivered by qualified speech and language therapists and 23% by assistants. Ninety percent of sessions were one to one, face to face sessions whilst 9.5% were group sessions. Discussion: In line with previous reports, speech and language therapy for community dwelling stroke survivors with aphasia is restricted. Rehabilitation is a large focus of therapy but the intensity and dose with which it is provided is substantially lower than that required for an effective outcome. Despite this, one to one face to face therapy is favoured. More efficient methods to support more therapeutic doses of therapy are not commonly used in routine clinical services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Personhood discourses in dementia care have gained prominence and current care home standards mandate that care should be “person-centred”. However, it is unclear how the personhood of staff is construed within the care relationship. This paper aims to explore how the personhood of paid carers of people with dementia can be understood by focussing on the views and experiences of care home staff. We undertook a secondary qualitative analysis of interviews with 25 paid care staff in England, conducted as part of the MARQUE (Managing Agitation and Raising QUality of lifE) study. The authors inductively developed themes around the topic of personhood for staff, contrasting management and care staff perspectives. We found that many care staff are not identified as persons in their own right by their employing institutions, and that there is a general lack of acknowledgment of the moral work of caring that occurs within formal care work. This oversight can reduce the complex relationships of care work to a series of care tasks, challenges care workers’ self-worth and self-efficacy, and impede their efforts to deliver person-centred care. We conclude that care staff status as persons in their own right should be explicitly considered in quality standards and supported by employers’ policies and practices, not simply for their role in preserving the personhood of people with dementia but for their own sense of valued personhood. Enhancing staff personhood may also result in improved care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: There is a general inquisition regarding the monetary value of a research output, as a substantial amount of funding in modern academia is essentially awarded to good research presented in the form of journal articles, conferences papers, performances, compositions, exhibitions, books and book chapters etc., which, eventually leads to another question if the value varies across different disciplines. Answers to these questions will not only assist academics and researchers, but will also help higher education institutions (HEIs) make informed decisions in their administrative and research policies. Design and methodology: To examine both the questions, we applied the United Kingdom’s recently concluded national research assessment exercise known as the Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2014 as a case study. All the data for this study is sourced from the openly available publications which arose from the digital repositories of REF’s results and HEFCE’s funding allocations. Findings: A world leading output earns between £7504 and £14,639 per year within the REF cycle, whereas an internationally excellent output earns between £1876 and £3659, varying according to their area of research. Secondly, an investigation into the impact rating of 25315 journal articles submitted in five areas of research by UK HEIs and their awarded funding revealed a linear relationship between the percentage of quartile-one journal publications and percentage of 4* outputs in Clinical Medicine, Physics and Psychology/Psychiatry/Neuroscience UoAs, and no relationship was found in the Classics and Anthropology/Development Studies UoAs, due to the fact that most publications in the latter two disciplines are not journal articles. Practical implications: The findings provide an indication of the monetary value of a research output, from the perspectives of government funding for research, and also what makes a good output, i.e. whether a relationship exists between good quality output and the source of its publication. The findings may also influence future REF submission strategies in HEIs and ascertain that the impact rating of the journals is not necessarily a reflection of the quality of research in every discipline, and this may have a significant influence on the future of scholarly communications in general. Originality: According to the author’s knowledge, this is the first time an investigation has estimated the monetary value of a good research output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explore a relational understanding of landscape qualities. We asked three independent groups of human observers to assess the expressive qualities of a range of landscapes in the UK and in Spain, either by means of personal visits or from a projected digital image. We employed a Free Choice Profiling (FCP) methodology, in which observers generated their own descriptive terminologies and then used these to quantify perceived landscape qualities on visual analogue scales. Data were analysed using Generalised Procrustes Analysis, a multivariate statistical technique that does not rely on fixed variables to identify underlying dimensions of assessment. The three observer groups each showed significant agreement, and generated two main consensus dimensions that suggested landscape ‘health’ and ‘development in time’ as common perceived themes of landscape expressivity. We critically discuss these outcomes in context of the landscape assessment literature, and suggest ways forward for further development and research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surveillance of animal diseases provides information essential for the protection of animal health and ultimately public health. The voluntary pig health schemes, implemented in the United Kingdom, are integrated systems which capture information on different macroscopic disease conditions detected in slaughtered pigs. Many of these conditions have been associated with a reduction in performance traits and consequent increases in production costs. The schemes are the Wholesome Pigs Scotland in Scotland, the BPEX Pig Health Scheme in England and Wales and the Pig Regen Ltd. health and welfare checks done in Northern Ireland. This report set out to compare the prevalence of four respiratory conditions (enzootic pneumonia-like lesions, pleurisy, pleuropneumonia lesions and abscesses in the lung) assessed by these three Pig Health Schemes. The seasonal variations and year trends associated with the conditions in each scheme are presented. The paper also highlights the differences in prevalence for each condition across these schemes and areas where further research is needed. A general increase in the prevalence of enzootic pneumonia like lesions was observed in Scotland, England and Wales since 2009, while a general decrease was observed in Northern Ireland over the years of the scheme. Pleurisy prevalence has increased since 2010 in all three schemes, whilst pleuropneumonia has been decreasing. Prevalence of abscesses in the lung has decreased in England, Wales and Northern Ireland but has increased in Scotland. This analysis highlights the value of surveillance schemes based on abattoir pathology monitoring of four respiratory lesions. The outputs at scheme level have significant value as indicators of endemic and emerging disease, and for producers and herd veterinarians in planning and evaluating herd health control programs when comparing individual farm results with national averages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Notwithstanding that ‘public engagement’ is conceptualised differently internationally and in different academic disciplines, higher education institutions largely accept the importance of public engagement with research. However, there is limited evidence on how researchers conceptualise engagement, their views on what constitutes engagement and the communities they would (or would not) like to engage with. This paper presents the results of a survey of researchers in the Open University that sought to gather data to fill these gaps. This research was part of an action research project designed to embed engagement in the routine practices of researchers at all levels. The findings indicate that researchers have a relatively narrow view of public engagement with research and the communities with which they interact. It also identified that very few strategically evaluate their public engagement activities. We conclude by discussing some of the interventions we have introduced with the aim of broadening and deepening future researcher engagement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Children's exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) has been causally linked to a number of childhood morbidities and mortalities. Over 50% of UK children whose parents are smokers are regularly exposed to SHS at home. No previous review has identified the factors associated with children's SHS exposure in the home. Aim: To identify by systematic review, the factors which are associated with children's SHS exposure in the home, determined by parent or child reports and/or biochemically validated measures including cotinine, carbon monoxide or home air particulate matter. Methods: Electronic searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, CINAHL and Web of Knowledge to July 2014, and hand searches of reference lists from publications included in the review were conducted. Findings: Forty one studies were included in the review. Parental smoking, low socioeconomic status and being less educated were all frequently and consistently found to be independently associated with children's SHS exposure in the home. Children whose parents held more negative attitudes towards SHS were less likely to be exposed. Associations were strongest for parental cigarette smoking status; compared to children of non-smokers, those whose mothers or both parents smoked were between two and 13 times more likely to be exposed to SHS. Conclusion: Multiple factors are associated with child SHS exposure in the home; the best way to reduce child SHS exposure in the home is for smoking parents to quit. If parents are unable or unwilling to stop smoking, they should instigate smoke-free homes. Interventions targeted towards the socially disadvantaged parents aiming to change attitudes to smoking in the presence of children and providing practical support to help parents smoke outside the home may be beneficial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK government has recently recognised the need to improve mental health services in the country. Electronic health records provide a rich source of patient data which could help policymakers to better understand needs of the service users. The main objective of this study is to unveil statistics of diagnoses recorded in the Case Register of the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust, one of the largest mental health providers in the UK and Europe serving a source population of over 1.2 million people residing in south London. Based on over 500,000 diagnoses recorded in ICD10 codes for a cohort of approximately 200,000 mental health patients, we established frequency rate of each diagnosis (the ratio of the number of patients for whom a diagnosis has ever been recorded to the number of patients in the entire population who have made contact with mental disorders). We also investigated differences in diagnoses prevalence between subgroups of patients stratified by gender and ethnicity. The most common diagnoses in the considered population were (recurrent) depression (ICD10 codes F32-33; 16.4% of patients), reaction to severe stress and adjustment disorders (F43; 7.1%), mental/behavioural disorders due to use of alcohol (F10; 6.9%), and schizophrenia (F20; 5.6%). We also found many diagnoses which were more likely to be recorded in patients of a certain gender or ethnicity. For example, mood (affective) disorders (F31-F39); neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders (F40-F48, except F42); and eating disorders (F50) were more likely to be found in records of female patients, while males were more likely to be diagnosed with mental/behavioural disorders due to psychoactive substance use (F10-F19). Furthermore, mental/behavioural disorders due to use of alcohol and opioids were more likely to be recorded in patients of white ethnicity, and disorders due to use of cannabinoids in those of black ethnicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: From April 6th 2015, all small shops in the UK were required to cover up tobacco products at point of sale (POS) to protect children from exposure. As part of a larger 5-year study to measure the impact of the legislation in Scotland, an audit was conducted to assess level and nature of compliance with the ban immediately following its introduction. Materials and Methods: A discreet observational audit was conducted 7–14 days post implementation which took measures of physical changes made to cover products, server/assistant practices, tobacco signage and advertising, and communication of price information. The audit was conducted in all small retail outlets (n = 83) selling tobacco in four communities in Scotland selected to represent different levels of urbanisation and social deprivation. Data were analysed descriptively. Results: Compliance with the legislation was high, with 98% of shops removing tobacco from permanent display and non-compliance was restricted almost entirely to minor contraventions. The refurbishment of shops with new or adapted tobacco storage units resulted in the removal of nearly all commercial brand messages and images from POS, dropping from 51% to 4%. The majority of shops stored their tobacco in public-facing storage units (81%). Most shops also displayed at least one generic tobacco message (88%). Conclusions: Compliance with Scottish prohibitions on display of tobacco products in small retail outlets was high immediately after the legislation implementation date. However, although tobacco branding is no longer visible in retail outlets, tobacco storage units with generic tobacco messages are still prominent. This points towards a need to monitor how the space vacated by tobacco products is utilised and to better understand how the continuing presence of tobacco storage units influences people’s awareness and understanding of tobacco and smoking. Countries with existing POS bans and who are considering such bans should pay particular attention to regulations regarding the use of generic signage and where within the retail setting tobacco stocks can be stored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluctuation scaling relationships have been observed in a wide range of processes ranging from internet router traffic to measles cases. Taylor’s law is one such scaling relationship and has been widely applied in ecology to understand communities including trees, birds, human populations, and insects. We show that monthly crime reports in the UK show complex fluctuation scaling which can be approximated by Taylor’s law relationships corresponding to local policing neighborhoods and larger regional and countrywide scales. Regression models applied to local scale data from Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire found that different categories of crime exhibited different scaling exponents with no significant difference between the two regions. On this scale, violence reports were close to a Poisson distribution (α = 1.057±0.026) while burglary exhibited a greater exponent (α = 1.292±0.029) indicative of temporal clustering. These two regions exhibited significantly different pre-exponential factors for the categories of anti-social behavior and burglary indicating that local variations in crime reports can be assessed using fluctuation scaling methods. At regional and countrywide scales, all categories exhibited scaling behavior indicative of temporal clustering evidenced by Taylor’s law exponents from 1.43±0.12 (Drugs) to 2.094±0081 (Other Crimes). Investigating crime behavior via fluctuation scaling gives insight beyond that of raw numbers and is unique in reporting on all processes contributing to the observed variance and is either robust to or exhibits signs of many types of data manipulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To explore, through face to face interviews with a selection of General Dental Practitioners (GDPs), their views and experiences of having used the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) within primary care research studies for recording caries. Methods: This qualitative study involved one on one interviews with eight GDP’s who had previously used ICDAS on patients in their dental practices as part of a research study. The participants were selected from among those who had taken part in two clinical studies in the UK using convenient, but purposive sampling. The interviews were tape-recorded and transcribed; the data analysis was conducted by thematic analysis. Results: GDP’s indicated their beliefs that ICDAS had an important role in caries prevention but reported four main barriers while using the full (6 caries stages) ICDAS coding system in their practices: lack of simplicity of coding, financial implications and time consumption (in both training and use of ICDAS) and inadequate undergraduate training. An overarching theme identified from the GDPS was the willingness to offer potential solutions to their barriers which might improve the utilisation of the system in primary care. Conclusion: The GDPs experienced common obstacles in using ICDAS in the primary care setting, many of which have relatively straight-forward solutions which they put forward themselves such as: incentivisation, undergraduate-level training in ICDAS for both dentists and nurses and computerized data entry. Further qualitative and quantitative research is needed on how to facilitate the utilisation of the system in dental practice. It is also recommended to explore the influences of wider agencies on influencing primary dental care professionals’ caries management, including appropriate recording of diagnosis and risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The NICE clinical guidelines on psychosocial interventions for the treatment of schizophrenia and psychosis in adults are based on the results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), which may not be studies with a pragmatic design, leading to uncertainty on applicability or recommendations to everyday clinical practice. Aim: To assess the level of pragmatism of the evidence used to develop the NICE guideline for psychosocial interventions in psychoses. Material and methods: We conducted a systematic and critical appraisal of RCTs used to develop the ‘psychological therapy and psychosocial interventions’ section of the NICE guideline on the treatment and management of psychosis and schizophrenia in adults, published in 2014. For each study we assessed pragmatism using the pragmatic–explanatory continuum indicator summary-2 (PRECIS-2) and the Cochrane risk of bias tool. The mean score of PRECIS-2, averaging across nine domains, was calculated to describe the level of pragmatism of each individual study. Results: A total of 143 studies were included in the analysis. Based on the PRECIS-2 tool, 16.8% were explanatory, 33.6% pragmatic, and 49.7% were rated in an intermediate category. Compared to explanatory studies, pragmatic studies showed a lower risk of bias. Additionally, pragmatism did not significantly improve over time, and no associations were found between pragmatism and a number of trial characteristics. However, studies with a UK leading investigator had the highest mean score of pragmatism. Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), art therapy, family intervention, psychoeducation, and adherence therapy, showed the higher average pragmatism scores. Conclusions: Two third of studies used to produce NICE recommendations on psychosocial interventions for the treatment of schizophrenia and psychosis in adults are based on studies that did not employ a pragmatic design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Encephalitis, characterised as inflammation of the brain tissue, is an important cause of acquired brain injury in children. Objective clinical outcomes vary significantly between affected patients, however they do not always correlate with quality of life as reported by parents. The aim of this study was to explore how parents experience and interpret outcomes in relation to their child who has been affected by encephalitis. Methods: Data were derived from in-depth, semi-structured interviews, with 15 parents of 12 children and young people affected by encephalitis. Paediatric cases were identified from the retrospective arm of the research programme ‘ENCEPH-UK-Understanding and Improving the Outcome of Encephalitis’, and from the prospective UK childhood meningitis and encephalitis cohort study (UK-ChiMES, 2012 to 2016). Data were analysed thematically. Results: Parents’ perspectives on important outcomes for their child and family changed during the different stages of the encephalitis illness trajectory: from acute illness, recovery and rehabilitation, then reintegration into everyday life. Parents’ understanding of their children’s overall outcome was informed by their own experiences, involving comparisons with other children and reflections on their child’s problems before, during and after the acute illness. Conclusion: Outcomes in paediatric encephalitis need to be understood in terms of the context of the patient and family experience as well as the timeframe of recovery. The research highlights the need to include more patient, parent and/or carer reported outcome measures during patient assessment, and that assessment should be repeated during recovery as family concerns change. In the longer term, these parameters could be included in clinical and rehabilitation practice to further support child recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bemisia tabaci (the tobacco whitefly) is an important agricultural pest of global significance primarily because of its ability to transmit multiple damaging plant viruses. To date, UK outbreaks of the whitefly have been restricted to glasshouses and there are no records of the whitefly establishing outdoors during the summer. This is despite the fact that annual degree-day models (that estimate accumulated warmth over the year above the development threshold), indicate that B. tabaci has the thermal potential for multiple summer generations in the UK. A set of 49 climate indices calculated using the present day climate (1986–2015) were therefore compared between the UK and the south of France, where B. tabaci is able to establish outdoors, to identify the factors limiting its establishment. The number of cold days and nights in summer, as well as the time spent within the whitefly’s optimum temperature range, were most significantly different between the two areas. These indices may impact the development of B. tabaci and offer an explanation for the absence of the whitefly outdoors in the UK during the summer. Further analyses undertaken with climate projections suggest that in a 2–4°C warmer world this pest could pose a risk to outdoor UK crops in July and August. A clear south-north gradient can be demonstrated for these indices. Linking any possible northwards spread of B. tabaci populations outdoors in France with changes in these indices could therefore provide an important indicator of any change in the risks of outdoor populations of this species developing in the UK. The effectiveness of climate indices in pest risk analysis is compellingly demonstrated, and it is recommended that in-depth comparisons of climatic indices between areas of pest presence and absence are conducted in other situations where forecasting the risks of pest establishment are complex and challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research into public perceptions of live prey feeding has been focused on terrestrial animals. The reasons for this likely relate to the difficulty humans have in being compassionate to animals who are phylogenetically distantly related. In order to test these assumptions, the general public (two groups; one who had just visited an aquarium; and one group who had just visited a zoo), aquarium professionals in the UK/US and terrestrial zoo animal professionals (UK) were investigated to see how they would differ in their responses when asked about feeding various live aquatic animals to one another. Likert based surveys were used to obtain data face to face and via online social media. Demographics in previous research identified a lower acceptance of live prey feeding by females, however in aquatic animals this was not reflected. Instead, separations in perception were seen to exist between participants dependent on whether they had just visited a zoo or aquarium, or worked with animals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The United Kingdom (UK) was the first European country to introduce a national immunisation program for shingles (2013–2014). That year, vaccination coverage ranged from 50 to 64% across the UK, but uptake has declined ever since. This study explored determinants of the acceptance of the shingles vaccine in the UK. Methods: Vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, who were eligible for the last catch-up cohort of the 2014–2015 shingles vaccination campaign, were identified using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (the National Health Service data research service) and invited to participate by their general practitioner (GP). An anonymised self-administered questionnaire was developed using the Health Belief Model as a theoretical framework, to collect data on demographic and socio-economic characteristics, health status, knowledge, influences, experiences and attitudes to shingles and the shingles vaccine. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with vaccination. Physicians’ views concerning perceived barriers to vaccination were also assessed. Results: Of the 2,530 questionnaires distributed, 536 were returned (21.2%) from 69 general practices throughout the UK. The majority of responders were female (58%), lived in care homes (56%) and had completed secondary or higher education (88%). There were no differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated responders. Being offered the shingles vaccine by a GP/nurse (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3), and self-efficacy (OR = 1.2) were associated with being vaccinated (p<0.05). In contrast, previous shingles history (OR = 0.4), perceived barriers to vaccination (OR = 0.7) and perceived control of the disease (OR = 0.7) were associated with not being vaccinated against shingles (p<0.05). Less than half (44.0%) of GPs were aware of the local communication campaigns regarding shingles and the shingles vaccine. Conclusions: Socio-psychological factors largely influence shingles vaccination acceptance in this study. The results add to existing evidence that healthcare providers (HCPs) have a pivotal role against vaccine hesitancy. Campaigns focusing on GPs and accessible information offered to eligible members of the public can further enhance shingles vaccine uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To determine whether implementation of comprehensive in-school eyecare results in measurable benefits for children and young people in terms of visual status, classroom behaviours and how well their visual needs are met. Design: School-based observational study. Participants & Methods: 200 pupils [mean age 10 years 9 months, 70% male, majority moderate (40%) or severe (35%) learning difficulty] of a special education school in the UK. A sector-agreed in-school eyecare framework including full eye examination and cycloplegic refraction, dispensing of spectacles (as appropriate) and written reporting of outcomes to parents/teachers was applied. Classroom behaviours were observed and recorded prior to, and after, the in-school eyecare. Surveys were employed to obtain visual histories from parents/teachers. School records and statutory documents were reviewed for diagnostic and learning disability classifications. Visual function and ocular health were profiled at baseline and significant visual deficits identified. Where such deficits were previously unrecognised, untreated or not compensated for (e.g. correction of refractive error, enlargement of educational material) they were recorded as ‘unmet visual need’. At follow-up, 2–5 months after initial (baseline) measures, eye examinations, parent/teacher surveys and behaviour observations were repeated. Follow-up measures were used to determine if measurable improvements were evident in visual function, ocular health, the level of unmet need and classroom behaviour following implementation of in-school eyecare. Results: 199 participants completed baseline and follow-up measures. 122 (61%) participants presented with at least one significant visual or ocular health deficit and 90 (45%) participants had at least one unmet visual need. Younger pupils and those with no previous history of eyecare were more likely to demonstrate unmet visual needs at baseline (OR 1.12 95% CI 1.03 to 1.21) p = 0.012; (OR 4.44 95% CI 1.38 to 14.29 p = 0.007 respectively). On follow-up, the number of pupils with unmet visual needs dropped significantly to 36 (18%) (McNemar’s test p<0.001). Visual and behavioural metrics of participants without significant visual deficits or whose visual needs were adequately addressed at baseline remained relatively unchanged between baseline and follow-up (Wilcoxon signed rank p>0.05). Where significant refractive deficits were corrected at follow-up, near visual acuity improved significantly (Wilcoxon signed rank p = 0.013), however, poor spectacle compliance was a persistent cause of unmet visual need. Off-task behaviour reduced significantly after actions to address unmet visual needs were communicated to parents and teachers (Wilcoxon signed rank p = 0.035). Conclusions: The present study demonstrates for the first time measurable visual and behaviour benefits to children in special education settings when they receive comprehensive in-school eye examinations, on-site spectacle dispensing and jargon-free reporting of outcomes to teachers and parents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emplaced health promotion interventions, delivered by community health workers are increasingly being used internationally. However, the application of epidemiological risk knowledge to individuals within such communities is not straightforward and creates tensions for community health workers who are part of the communities that they are serving. Situated qualitative interview data were co-produced with community health workers employed in a superdiverse, deprived, post-industrial region of the United Kingdom, using photo-voice methods, to develop an account of how they made sense of the challenges of their work. The analysis draws on and develops theories of risk work and resilience work, which draw on practice theory. The key findings were that, first, being a critical insider enabled community health workers to make sense of the diverse constraints on health and lifestyles within their community. Second, they understood their own public health role as limited by operating within this context, so they articulated their occupational identity as focused on supporting clients to make small but sustainable changes to their own and their families’ lifestyles. Third, the uncertainties of translating population based risk information to individual clients were (at least partially) resolved at an embodied level, with the community health workers identifying as accessible and trusted role models for the value of changed lifestyles. The article is important for policy and practice as it provides a critique of a rapidly evolving new mode of delivery of public health services, and insights on the development of this new public health workforce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The risk of recurrence of solitary plasmacytoma (SP)/progression to MM is well established, but patient, imaging and treatment factors influencing risk of progression require further evaluation. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of 66 SP patients (23 UK, 43 Brazil) diagnosed 1989–2016. Patient baseline characteristics were recorded. The incidence of progression to MM was calculated, including biochemical and imaging findings and the treatment modality received. Survival estimates were determined by Kaplan-Meier analyses. Results: With a median follow-up of 53.6 months the 5 year overall survival (OS) was 90.7% (95%CI 79–96%). The median progression free survival (PFS) from diagnosis was 61 months. Cumulative incidence of progression to MM was 49.9% at 5 years (95% CI 35.6–62.6%) and was significantly higher with bone plasmacytoma (47.2%, 95%CI 31.9–61.1%), than an extramedullary location (8.3%, 95%CI 0.4–32.3%, Gray test p = 0.0095)). The majority of patients with solitary bony plasmacytoma (SBP) received radiotherapy (RT) (51/53, 96.2%) whereas most extramedullary cases were treated with surgical resection (7/13, 53.8%). A small proportion of SBP patients received additional upfront chemotherapy, with 5/6 in remission after a median follow-up (FU) of 10 years. The diagnostic yield of surveillance functional FU imaging without other indications of relapse/progression was low. The positive predictive value of functional FU imaging was high but with a low negative predictive value, especially in cases of suspected relapse/progression. Conclusion: Our data suggests functional imaging should be used if clinical suspicion of relapse/progression, rather than a routine surveillance tool, and upfront adjuvant chemotherapy is worthy of prospective evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Acute abdominal pain (colic) is the most common reason for emergency veterinary treatment in the horse. Consolidation of data through a systematic review is important to inform evidence-based medicine and clinical guidelines, but there are currently no published systematic reviews on colic in the horse. The aim of this study was to identify, categorize and appraise the evidence on factors associated with increased risk of developing abdominal pain (colic) due to gastrointestinal disease in the adult horse. A scoping review was performed to identify and categorize evidence on all risk factors for colic. A systematic review of management-related risk factors was then performed following PRISMA guidelines. Both searches were conducted in Medline, CAB Abstracts and Web of Science databases, and publications were assessed against inclusion and exclusion criteria. For the scoping review, study and participant characteristics of included publications and key results were extracted and tabulated. For the systematic review, cohort, case-control or cross-sectional studies investigating acute abdominal pain in horses within two weeks of management changes were assessed. Study characteristics, participant characteristics and study results of included publications for the systematic review were extracted and tabulated. Included publications were appraised using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Tools for cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies. The scoping review search identified 3,756 publications. Fifty eight studies met final inclusion criteria, and 22 categories of risk factors were identified. These were grouped into three broad areas: horse-related factors, management-related factors and environment-related factors. The largest body of evidence related to management change. The systematic review of management change identified 410 publications: 14 met inclusion criteria for analysis. These consisted of one cohort, eight case-control and five cross-sectional studies. The studies were conducted between 1990–2008, and the majority of studies were located in the USA (8/14) or UK (3/14). The risk factors related to management change that were assessed were feed, carer, exercise, pasture, water and housing. The largest bodies of evidence for increased risk of colic associated with management change were changes in feed (5/14 publications) and recent change in housing (3/14). Most studies (8/14) did not meet the JBI criterion on confounding factors. There was marked heterogeneity of study methodologies and measures. This is the first study to use a combined scoping and systematic review to analyse evidence for modifiable risk factors for a common condition in the horse. It provides a comprehensive review that will be a key resource for researchers, veterinary practitioners and horse owners. It identified modifiable risk factors associated with an increased risk of colic which should be a key target for preventative health programmes. The findings from the critical appraisal were used to develop recommendations for future research to improve the quality of evidence-based veterinary medicine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate the psychometric properties of the HIV Disability Questionnaire (HDQ) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in London, United Kingdom (UK). Methods: This is a cross-sectional measurement study. We recruited and administered the self-reported HDQ, seven criterion measures, and a demographic questionnaire with adults living with HIV accessing HIV care. We determined median and interquartile ranges (IQR) for disability presence, severity and episodic scores (range 0–100). We calculated Cronbach’s alpha (α) Kuder-Richardson-20 (KR-20) statistics for disability and episodic scores respectively (internal consistency reliability), smallest detectable change (SDC) for each HDQ severity item and domain (precision), and tested 36 a priori hypotheses assessing correlations between HDQ and criterion scores (construct validity). Results: Of N = 243 participants, all were male, median age 40 years, 94% currently taking antiretroviral therapy, and 22% living with ≥2 concurrent health conditions. Median HDQ domain scores ranged from 0 (IQR: 0,7) (difficulties with day-to-day activities domain) to 27 (IQR: 14, 41) (uncertainty domain). Cronbach’s alpha for the HDQ severity scale ranged from 0.85 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.80–0.90) in the cognitive domain to 0.93 (95%CI: 0.91–0.94) in the mental-emotional domain. The KR-20 statistic for the HDQ episodic scale ranged from 0.74 (95%CI: 0.66–0.83) in the cognitive domain to 0.91 (95%CI: 0.89–0.94) in the uncertainty domain. SDC ranged from 7.3–15.0 points on the HDQ severity scale for difficulties with day-to-day activities and cognitive symptoms domains, respectively. The majority of the construct validity hypotheses (n = 30/36, 83%) were confirmed. Conclusions: The HDQ possesses internal consistency reliability and construct validity with varied precision when administered to males living with HIV in London, UK. Clinicians and researchers may use the HDQ to measure the nature and extent of disability experienced by PLHIV in the UK, and to inform HIV service provision to address the health-related challenges among PLHIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective perpetrator programmes should be embedded within a community response, engage all types of perpetrators and involve an educational approach that integrates the survivor’s voice. The Domestic Abuse Prevention Partnership (DAPP) is a transformative partnership based in the UK that aims to provide an integrated approach for perpetrators and survivors. This pragmatic mixed methods study was conducted to examine the baseline characteristics and individual outcomes of the main perpetrator programme within the DAPP. Applying a triangulation design, routine police re-offending aggregated data, pre- and post- perpetrator programme questionnaires, in-depth interviews with survivors, and focus-group discussions with perpetrators (clients) were integrated. Statistical analysis and thematic analysis were applied to quantitative and qualitative data, respectively. The majority of clients (47%) referred through the DAPP (n = 228) described wanting to make their relationship better as the main reason for engaging with the main perpetrators programme. Post-perpetrator programme questionnaires identified positive changes in both emotional behaviours and physical behaviours amongst clients, which were also supported by examples of improved relationships with their children described in survivor interviews. Three themes were described: first, making positive progress; second, impact of the children’s module; and concerns around sustaining new behaviours. Over the monitoring period, 1 in 5 clients were either suspected or convicted of domestic abuse crimes following the programme. This suggests that further maintenance of positive behaviours and reinforcements are required for some clients. Given that clients felt children were a strong motivating factor for completing a programme, it seemed paradoxical that no specialist services were made available for them. Future reiterations of the DAPP model should at least address how best to work with children in families where domestic abuse occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We systematically reviewed the evidence on secular trends in main chronic conditions, disability and self-assessed general health among adults in the United Kingdom, as reported in primary/secondary care databases and population-based surveys. Searches were conducted separately for: (1) trends in age-standardised or age-specific prevalence of major non-communicable diseases, disability, and self-reported general health; (2) trends in health expectancy. The databases searched were MEDLINE, EMBASE/EMBASE Classic and Web of Science (all from 1946/7). The evidence was synthesised narratively. There were 39 studies reporting trends in prevalence of health conditions and 15 studies in health expectancy. We did not find evidence for improvement in the age-standardised or age-specific prevalence of any of the studied major chronic conditions over the last few decades, apart from Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Both increasing or stable prevalence rates with simultaneous rising life expectancy support the expansion of morbidity theory, meaning that people are expected to spend a greater number of years with chronic condition(s). The evidence on disability—expressed as prevalence or health expectancy—was mixed, but also appeared to support the expansion of morbidity among those aged 65 or over. The evidence on trends in disability for younger age is lacking. Across the studied period (1946–2017), the UK population endured more years with chronic morbidity and disability, which may place a serious strain on the health care system, the economy and the society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In October 2017, the United Kingdom Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) recommended removal of one primary dose of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) from the existing 2+1 schedule (2, 4, 12 months). We conducted a mathematical modelling study to investigate the potential impact of a 1+1 (3, 12 month) schedule on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Our results and those from a 1+1 immunogenicity study formed the key evidence reviewed by JCVI.Methods and Findings: We developed age-structured, dynamic, deterministic models of pneumococcal transmission in England and Wales to describe the impact on IPD of 7-valent PCV (PCV7; introduced in 2006) and PCV13 (introduced in 2010). Key transmission and vaccine parameters were estimated by fitting to carriage data from 2001/2002 and post-PCV IPD data to 2015, using vaccine coverage, mixing patterns between ages, and population data. We considered various models to investigate potential reasons for the rapid increase in non-PCV13 (non-vaccine serotype [NVT]) IPD cases since 2014. After searching a large parameter space, 500 parameter sets were identified with a likelihood statistically close to the maximum and these used to predict future cases (median, prediction range from 500 parameter sets). Our findings indicated that the emergence of individual NVTs with higher virulence resulting from ongoing replacement was likely responsible; the NVT increase was predicted to plateau from 2020. Long-term simulation results suggest that changing to a 1+1 schedule would have little overall impact, as the small increase in vaccine-type IPD would be offset by a reduction in NVT IPD. Our results were robust to changes in vaccine assumptions in a sensitivity analysis. Under the base case scenario, a change to a 1+1 schedule in 2018 was predicted to produce 31 (6, 76) additional IPD cases over five years and 83 (-10, 242) additional pneumococcal-CAP cases, with together 8 (-2, 24) additional deaths, none in children under 15 years. Long-term continuation with the 2+1 schedule, or changing to a 1+1, was predicted to sustain current reductions in IPD cases in under-64-year-olds, but cases in 65+-year-olds would continue to increase because of the effects of an aging population. Limitations of our model include difficulty in fitting to past trends in NVT IPD in some age groups and inherent uncertainty about future NVT behaviour, sparse data for defining the mixing matrix in 65+-year-olds, and the methodological challenge of defining uncertainty on predictions.Conclusions: Our findings suggest that, with the current mature status of the PCV programme in England and Wales, removing one primary dose in the first year of life would have little impact on IPD or pneumococcal CAP cases or associated deaths at any age. A reduction in the number of priming doses would improve programmatic efficiency and facilitate the introduction of new vaccines by reducing the number of coadministered vaccines given at 2 and 4 months of age in the current UK schedule. Our findings should not be applied to other settings with different pneumococcal epidemiology or with immature programmes and poor herd immunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Funding shortages and an ageing population have increased pressures on state or insurance funded end of life care for older people. Across the world, policy debate has arisen about the potential role volunteers can play, working alongside health and social care professionals in the community to support and care for the ageing and dying. Aims: The authors examined self-reported levels of care for the elderly by the public in England, and public opinions of community volunteering concepts to care for the elderly at the end of life. In particular, claimed willingness to help and to be helped by local people was surveyed. Methods: A sample of 3,590 adults in England aged 45 or more from an online access panel responded to a questionnaire in late 2017. The survey data was weighted to be representative of the population within this age band. Key literature and formative qualitative research informed the design of the survey questionnaire, which was further refined after piloting. Results: Preferences for different models of community volunteering were elicited. There was a preference for ‘formal’ models with increased wariness of ‘informal’ features. Whilst 32% of adults said they ‘might join’ depending on whom the group helped, unsurprisingly more personal and demanding types of help significantly reduced the claimed willingness to help. Finally, willingness to help (or be helped) by local community carers or volunteers was regarded as less attractive than care being provided by personal family, close friends or indeed health and care professionals. Conclusion: Findings suggest that if community volunteering to care for elderly people at the end of life in England is to expand it may require considerable attention to the model including training for volunteers and protections for patients and volunteers as well as public education and promotion. Currently, in England, there is a clear preference for non-medical care to be delivered by close family or social care professionals, with volunteer community care regarded only as a back-up option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The rapid rise in trade and use of NPS and the lack of information concerning their potential toxicity pose serious challenges to public health authorities across the world. Policy measures towards NPS taken so far have a special focus on their legal status, while the implementation of a public health strategy seems to be still missing. The aim of this study is to perform a general assessment of NPS-related policy (including regulatory measures and public health strategies) implemented by six European countries: Portugal, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, Poland, the United Kingdom and Sweden. Methods: Six EU countries were included in this scoping review study. Drug policies (including legal responses and public health strategies) were analysed. UNODC drug policy classification system was used as a benchmark, while path dependency approach was used for data analysis; a net of inter-dependencies between international, EU and national policies was highlighted. Results and discussion: The countries included in this study can be placed in a wide spectrum according to their formulation of drug policy, from Portugal and the UK that have specific legal responses to NPS but have differently focused on harm reduction strategies at one end, to Sweden whose drug-free society goal is not translated into a specific regulation of NPS at the other end. Conclusion: The findings of the study reveal limited development towards harmonisation of national drug policies–particularly with regard to NPS. To tackle the challenge presented by NPS, EU Member states have formulated legislation and public health strategies independently. National approaches to NPS are therefore in line with their already existing drug policies, reflecting cultural values towards substance abuse and national political interests, while the homogenization at an international level has so far mostly been focused on law enforcement and drugs use preventive strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unpaid work in the sciences is advocated as an entry route into scientific careers. We compared the success of UK science graduates who took paid or unpaid work six-months after graduation in obtaining a high salary or working in a STEM (Science, Technology Engineering and Mathematics) field 3.5 years later. Initially taking unpaid work was associated with lower earnings and lower persistence in STEM compared with paid work, but those using personal connections to obtain unpaid positions were as likely to persist in STEM as paid workers. Obtaining a position in STEM six months after graduation was associated with higher rates of persistence in STEM compared with a position outside STEM for both paid and unpaid workers, but the difference is considerably smaller for unpaid workers. Socio-economic inequality in the likelihood of obtaining entry in STEM by taking an unpaid position is a well-founded concern for scientific workforce diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have suggested that maternal vitamin D (25[OH]D) and calcium supplementation increase birth weight. However, limitations of many trials were highlighted in the reviews. Our aim was to combine genetic and RCT data to estimate causal effects of these two maternal traits on offspring birth weight.Methods and Findings: We performed two-sample mendelian randomisation (MR) using genetic instrumental variables associated with 25(OH)D and calcium that had been identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS; sample 1; N = 122,123 for 25[OH]D and N = 61,275 for calcium). Associations between these maternal genetic variants and offspring birth weight were calculated in the UK Biobank (UKB) (sample 2; N = 190,406). We used data on mother-child pairs from two United Kingdom birth cohorts (combined N = 5,223) in sensitivity analyses to check whether results were influenced by fetal genotype, which is correlated with the maternal genotype (r ≈ 0.5). Further sensitivity analyses to test the reliability of the results included MR-Egger, weighted-median estimator, 'leave-one-out', and multivariable MR analyses. We triangulated MR results with those from RCTs, in which we used randomisation to supplementation with vitamin D (24 RCTs, combined N = 5,276) and calcium (6 RCTs, combined N = 543) as an instrumental variable to determine the effects of 25(OH)D and calcium on birth weight. In the main MR analysis, there was no strong evidence of an effect of maternal 25(OH)D on birth weight (difference in mean birth weight -0.03 g [95% CI -2.48 to 2.42 g, p = 0.981] per 10% higher maternal 25[OH]D). The effect estimate was consistent across our MR sensitivity analyses. Instrumental variable analyses applied to RCTs suggested a weak positive causal effect (5.94 g [95% CI 2.15-9.73, p = 0.002] per 10% higher maternal 25[OH]D), but this result may be exaggerated because of risk of bias in the included RCTs. The main MR analysis for maternal calcium also suggested no strong evidence of an effect on birth weight (-20 g [95% CI -44 to 5 g, p = 0.116] per 1 SD higher maternal calcium level). Some sensitivity analyses suggested that the genetic instrument for calcium was associated with birth weight via exposures that are independent of calcium levels (horizontal pleiotropy). Application of instrumental variable analyses to RCTs suggested that calcium has a substantial effect on birth weight (178 g [95% CI 121-236 g, p = 1.43 × 10-9] per 1 SD higher maternal calcium level) that was not consistent with any of the MR results. However, the RCT instrumental variable estimate may have been exaggerated because of risk of bias in the included RCTs. Other study limitations include the low response rate of UK Biobank, which may bias MR estimates, and the lack of suitable data to test whether the effects of genetic instruments on maternal calcium levels during pregnancy were the same as those outside of pregnancy.Conclusions: Our results suggest that maternal circulating 25(OH)D does not influence birth weight in otherwise healthy newborns. However, the effect of maternal circulating calcium on birth weight is unclear and requires further exploration with more research including RCT and/or MR analyses with more valid instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bulldog is a popular companion breed in the UK despite widely reported disease predispositions. This study aimed to characterise the demography, mortality and common disorders of Bulldogs under veterinary care in the UK during 2013. VetCompass collates anonymised clinical data from UK primary-care veterinary practices for epidemiological research. The clinical records of all Bulldogs available in the VetCompass study dataset were reviewed manually in detail to extract the most definitive diagnoses recorded for all disorders that existed during 2013 and for all deaths. Bulldogs comprised 1621 (0.36%) of 445,557 study dogs. Bulldogs increased from 0.35% of the 2009 birth cohort to 0.60% in 2013. Median longevity was 7.2 years, which was lower in males (6.7 years) than females (7.9 years) (P = 0.021). The most prevalent fine-level precision disorders recorded were otitis externa (n = 206, prevalence 12.7%, 95% CI: 11.1–14.4), pyoderma (142, 8.8%, 95% CI: 7.4–10.2) and overweight/obesity (141, 8.7%, 95% CI: 7.4–10.2). The most prevalent disorder groups were cutaneous (n = 463, prevalence: 28.6%, 95% CI: 26.4–30.8), ophthalmological (292, 18.0%, 95% CI: 16.2–20.0), aural (211, 13.0%, 95% CI: 11.4–14.8), enteropathy (188, 11.6%, 95% CI: 10.1–13.3) and upper respiratory tract (171, 10.5%, 95% CI: 9.1–12.1). Provision of an evidence base on the most common disorders and causes of mortality within breeds can support owners, breeders and the veterinary profession to improve health and welfare within these breed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In-play gambling is a recent innovation allowing gambling to occur during the course of a sporting event, rather than merely before play commences. For years, in-play gambling has been marketed in the UK via adverts displaying current betting odds during breaks in televised soccer, e.g., “England to score in the first 20 minutes, 4-to-1.” Previous research shows that this so-called “live-odds” advertising is skewed toward complex events with high profit margins which consumers do not evaluate rationally. Recent UK regulatory guidance on “impulsiveness and urgency,” aiming to enhance consumer protection around gambling advertising, states that gambling advertising should not “unduly pressure the audience to gamble.” We explored the frequency and content of live-odds advertising over the 2018 soccer World Cup, as a case study of the first major televised sporting event after the publication of this UK regulatory guidance. In total, 69 live-odds adverts were shown over 32 matches (M = 2.16 per-match), by five bookmakers. We identified two key features that made advertised bets appear more urgent than necessary. First, 39.1% of bets could be determined before the match ended. Second, 24.6% of bets showed a recent improvement in odds, including a 15.9% subset of “flash odds,” which were limited in both time and quantity. Advertised odds were again skewed toward complex events, with a qualitative trend toward greater complexity than at the previous World Cup. We believe that consumers should be protected against the targeted content of gambling advertising. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between child health, wellbeing and education demonstrates that healthier and happier children achieve higher educational attainment. An engaging curriculum that facilitates children in achieving their academic potential has strong implications for educational outcomes, future employment prospects, and health and wellbeing during adulthood. Outdoor learning is a pedagogical approach used to enrich learning, enhance school engagement and improve pupil health and wellbeing. However, its non-traditional means of achieving curricular aims are not yet recognised beyond the early years by education inspectorates. This requires evidence into its acceptability from those at the forefront of delivery. This study aimed to explore headteachers’, teachers’ and pupils’ views and experiences of an outdoor learning programme within the key stage two curriculum (ages 9–11) in South Wales, United Kingdom. We examine the process of implementation to offer case study evidence through 1:1 interviews with headteachers (n = 3) and teachers (n = 10) and focus groups with pupils aged 9–11 (n = 10) from three primary schools. Interviews and focus groups were conducted at baseline and six months into implementation. Schools introduced regular outdoor learning within the curriculum. This study found a variety of perceived benefits for pupils and schools. Pupils and teachers noticed improvements in pupils’ engagement with learning, concentration and behaviour, as well as positive impacts on health and wellbeing and teachers’ job satisfaction. Curriculum demands including testing and evidencing work were barriers to implementation, in addition to safety concerns, resources and teacher confidence. Participants supported outdoor learning as a curriculum-based programme for older primary school pupils. However, embedding outdoor learning within the curriculum requires education inspectorates to place higher value on this approach in achieving curricular aims, alongside greater acknowledgment of the wider benefits to children which current measurements do not capture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Children living in disadvantaged socio-economic circumstances (SEC) are more commonly victims of bullying, but pathways leading to social inequalities in being bullied are unclear. We assess how early life risk factors might mediate the increased risk of being bullied at age seven for children living in disadvantaged circumstances. Material and methods: Using data from 5,857 children in the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) we calculate risk ratios (RR) for being bullied at age seven (child-reported), by household income quintile. Socially patterned risk factors for being bullied relating to social networks, family relationships and child characteristics from birth to age five were adjusted for to assess if they mediated any association between SEC and being bullied. Results: 48.6% of children reported having been bullied. Children living in the lowest income households were at 20% greater risk of being bullied compared to those from the highest (RR1.20, 95%CI 1.06,1.36). Controlling for social networks, family relationships and child characteristics attenuated the increased risk for children in low income households to aRR 1.19 (95%CI 1.05, 1.35), aRR 1.16 (95%CI 1.02,1.32) and aRR 1.13 (95%CI 1.00,1.28) respectively. Our final model adjusted for risk factors across all domains attenuated the RR by 45% (aRR 1.11,95%CI 0.97,1.26). Conclusions: About half of children reported being bullied by age seven with a clear social gradient. The excess risk in children growing up in disadvantaged circumstances was partially explained by differences in their early years relating to their social network, family relationships and the child’s own abilities and behaviours. Policies to reduce inequalities in these risk factors may also reduce inequalities in the risk of being bullied in childhood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Independence at work is commonly considered a job resource which fosters motivation and employee well-being. Somewhat paradoxically, it is embedded in a relationship, and employees’ independence also hinges on their leaders’ willingness to grant it. Analyzing this resource as part of the leader-follower relationship can be useful in exploring its beneficial, ambivalent, or detrimental reciprocal effects. We present two Actor-Partner Interdependence Models (APIM) which analyze leaders’ and followers’ independence as antecedents, and work engagement and emotional exhaustion as outcomes. We test our models on 112 pairs of UK workers, finding a significant partner effect between leaders’ independence and followers’ exhaustion. Our findings confirm the utility of a dyadic perspective for investigating leadership and well-being at work, and suggest improvements for leadership training and measures fostering job well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: United Kingdom guidelines for the use of biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDS) for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) require patients to have active disease (Disease Activity Score [DAS28] >5.1) and have failed ≥2 previous conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARD). Patients with moderate disease activity (MDA) do not meet these criteria, yet often have poor outcomes. This study aimed to identify trajectory groups of disability scores over three years in RA patients with MDA. Methods: The study included biologic-naïve patients receiving csDMARDs only with MDA (3.2

Background: Identifying people at risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is a cornerstone of preventative cardiology. Risk prediction models currently recommended by clinical guidelines are typically based on a limited number of predictors with sub-optimal performance across all patient groups. Data-driven techniques based on machine learning (ML) might improve the performance of risk predictions by agnostically discovering novel risk predictors and learning the complex interactions between them. We tested (1) whether ML techniques based on a state-of-the-art automated ML framework (AutoPrognosis) could improve CVD risk prediction compared to traditional approaches, and (2) whether considering non-traditional variables could increase the accuracy of CVD risk predictions. Methods and findings: Using data on 423,604 participants without CVD at baseline in UK Biobank, we developed a ML-based model for predicting CVD risk based on 473 available variables. Our ML-based model was derived using AutoPrognosis, an algorithmic tool that automatically selects and tunes ensembles of ML modeling pipelines (comprising data imputation, feature processing, classification and calibration algorithms). We compared our model with a well-established risk prediction algorithm based on conventional CVD risk factors (Framingham score), a Cox proportional hazards (PH) model based on familiar risk factors (i.e, age, gender, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, reception of treatments for hypertension and body mass index), and a Cox PH model based on all of the 473 available variables. Predictive performances were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Overall, our AutoPrognosis model improved risk prediction (AUC-ROC: 0.774, 95% CI: 0.768-0.780) compared to Framingham score (AUC-ROC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.720-0.728, p < 0.001), Cox PH model with conventional risk factors (AUC-ROC: 0.734, 95% CI: 0.729-0.739, p < 0.001), and Cox PH model with all UK Biobank variables (AUC-ROC: 0.758, 95% CI: 0.753-0.763, p < 0.001). Out of 4,801 CVD cases recorded within 5 years of baseline, AutoPrognosis was able to correctly predict 368 more cases compared to the Framingham score. Our AutoPrognosis model included predictors that are not usually considered in existing risk prediction models, such as the individuals’ usual walking pace and their self-reported overall health rating. Furthermore, our model improved risk prediction in potentially relevant sub-populations, such as in individuals with history of diabetes. We also highlight the relative benefits accrued from including more information into a predictive model (information gain) as compared to the benefits of using more complex models (modeling gain). Conclusions: Our AutoPrognosis model improves the accuracy of CVD risk prediction in the UK Biobank population. This approach performs well in traditionally poorly served patient subgroups. Additionally, AutoPrognosis uncovered novel predictors for CVD disease that may now be tested in prospective studies. We found that the “information gain” achieved by considering more risk factors in the predictive model was significantly higher than the “modeling gain” achieved by adopting complex predictive models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Musculoskeletal symptoms in people living with HIV (PLWH) such as pain, joint stiffness, and fatigue are commonly reported. Prevalence rates of up to 45%, 79% and 88% respectively have been reported. However, very little is known about differences in prevalence and impact of musculoskeletal symptoms on physical functioning and quality of life of PLWH on effective combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) in high and low-resource settings. Methods: A cross-sectional study of PLWH on effective cART enrolled from two large urban clinics in the UK and Zambia was conducted in 2016. Eligible participants had no history of trauma to the joints within 4 weeks of recruitment, or documented evidence of previous rheumatic disease. Current musculoskeletal symptoms, functional ability, and health-related quality of life were evaluated using the health assessment (HAQ) and quality-of-life short form (SF-36) self-reported questionnaires. Results: 214 patients were enrolled (108:UK and 106:Zambia). Participants from Zambia were younger (47 vs 44 years) and had significantly lower CD4 counts (640 vs 439 cells/mL p = 0.018) compared to those from the UK, while the UK group had lived with HIV longer (11 vs 6 years; p<0.001) and reported more comorbidities than the Zambian group (66% vs 26%; p<0.001). Musculoskeletal pain was common in both groups (UK:69% vs Zambia:61% p = 0.263) but no significant differences in physical functional capacity between the groups were observed. However, the UK group had significantly worse quality of life measurements (general health, vitality, mental health, emotional, and social functioning) associated with musculoskeletal symptoms compared to the Zambian group (p<0.001). Conclusions: Musculoskeletal symptoms in PLWH from both the UK and Zambia were common. PLWH in the UK reported worse quality of life measures associated with musculoskeletal symptoms compared to those in Zambia, suggesting that factors such as mental health, patient expectations and multimorbidity might play a role in determining well-being and quality of life of PLWH with musculoskeletal symptoms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Seizures are the main cause of maternal death in women with epilepsy, but there are no tools for predicting seizures in pregnancy. We set out to develop and validate a prognostic model, using information collected during the antenatal booking visit, to predict seizure risk at any time in pregnancy and until 6 weeks postpartum in women with epilepsy on antiepileptic drugs.Methods and Findings: We used datasets of a prospective cohort study (EMPiRE) of 527 pregnant women with epilepsy on medication recruited from 50 hospitals in the UK (4 November 2011-17 August 2014). The model development cohort comprised 399 women whose antiepileptic drug doses were adjusted based on clinical features only; the validation cohort comprised 128 women whose drug dose adjustments were informed by serum drug levels. The outcome was epileptic (non-eclamptic) seizure captured using diary records. We fitted the model using LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression, and reported the performance using C-statistic (scale 0-1, values > 0.5 show discrimination) and calibration slope (scale 0-1, values near 1 show accuracy) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We determined the net benefit (a weighted sum of true positive and false positive classifications) of using the model, with various probability thresholds, to aid clinicians in making individualised decisions regarding, for example, referral to tertiary care, frequency and intensity of monitoring, and changes in antiepileptic medication. Seizures occurred in 183 women (46%, 183/399) in the model development cohort and in 57 women (45%, 57/128) in the validation cohort. The model included age at first seizure, baseline seizure classification, history of mental health disorder or learning difficulty, occurrence of tonic-clonic and non-tonic-clonic seizures in the 3 months before pregnancy, previous admission to hospital for seizures during pregnancy, and baseline dose of lamotrigine and levetiracetam. The C-statistic was 0.79 (95% CI 0.75, 0.84). On external validation, the model showed good performance (C-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.66, 0.85; calibration slope 0.93, 95% CI 0.44, 1.41) but with imprecise estimates. The EMPiRE model showed the highest net proportional benefit for predicted probability thresholds between 12% and 99%. Limitations of this study include the varied gestational ages of women at recruitment, retrospective patient recall of seizure history, potential variations in seizure classification, the small number of events in the validation cohort, and the clinical utility restricted to decision-making thresholds above 12%. The model findings may not be generalisable to low- and middle-income countries, or when information on all predictors is not available.Conclusions: The EMPiRE model showed good performance in predicting the risk of seizures in pregnant women with epilepsy who are prescribed antiepileptic drugs. Integration of the tool within the antenatal booking visit, deployed as a simple nomogram, can help to optimise care in women with epilepsy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]