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It is well‐known that the increasing zonal‐mean trend of sea‐ice concentration (SIC) surrounding Antarctica is up to 2015 so this paper first summarized this trend with opposing regional trends in each season along the latitude band 60°–70°S during 1979–2015. The surface wind trends can partly explain the observed regional SIC trends. By analysing the surface wind, as well as the tropospheric geopotential height (GPH) and temperature trends, the study revealed that the increasing zonal‐mean SIC trend and opposing regional SIC trends surrounding Antarctica are vertically associated with GPH and temperature trends in the troposphere. This relationship is also found in extreme years for seven SIC maximum and four SIC minimum autumns from 1979 to 2015, particularly reconfirmed in the two SIC minimum autumns of 2017 and 2018, indicating that a positive regional SIC anomaly is vertically associated with an anomalously cold air mass centred around 850 hPa in the troposphere which is located beneath a negative GPH anomaly at the upper troposphere, and vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the synoptic-scale spatial structures for raising tornadic and hail storms are compared by analyzing the total and anomalous variable fields from the troposphere to the stratosphere. 15 cases of tornado outbreaks and 20 cases of hail storms that occurred in the central United States during 1980–2011 were studied. The anomalous temperature–height field shows that a tornadic or hail storm usually occurs at the boundary of anomalous warm and cold air masses horizontally in the troposphere. In one side, an anomalous warm air mass in the mid-low troposphere and an anomalous cold air mass in the stratosphere are vertically separated by a positive center of height anomalies at the upper troposphere. In another side, an opposite vertical pattern shows that an anomalous cold air mass in the mid-low troposphere and an anomalous warm air mass in the stratosphere are separated by a negative center of height anomalies at the upper troposphere. Therefore, two pairs of adjacent anomalous warm/cold centers and one pair of anomalous high/low centers combining together form a major tornadic or hail storm paradigm, which can be physically considered as the storage of anomalous potential energy (APE) to generate severe weather. To quantitatively measure the APE, we define an index of anomalous convective instability (ACI) which is a difference of integrating temperature anomalies based on two vertically opposite anomalous air masses. The APE transformation to anomalous kinetic energy, which reduces horizontal and vertical gradients of temperature anomalies, produces anomalous rising and sinking flows in the lower-layer anomalous warm and cold air mass sides, respectively. The intensity of ACI index for tornadic storm cases is 1.5 times larger than that of hail storm cases in average. Thus, this expression of anomalous variables is better than total variables used in the traditional synoptic chart and the ACI index is better than other indices to detect potential tornadic and hail storms in order to understand the environmental conditions affecting severe weather in analytical and model output datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic cell as a reversed and closed loop next to the Polar cell has been recently revealed in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In this paper, we study the interannual variability of the Arctic and Polar cell strengths during 1979-2012, and their influence on surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation, and sea-ice concentration (SIC) at mid- and high-latitudes of the NH. We show that there is a significant negative correlation between the Arctic and Polar cell strengths. Both the Arctic and Polar cell strengths can well indicate the recurring climatic anomalies of SAT, precipitation, and SIC in their extreme winters. The surface large-scale cold-warm and dry-wet anomalous patterns in these extreme winters are directly linked with the vertical structure of height and temperature anomalies in the troposphere. Results suggest that the past climatic anomalies are better indicated by the strength anomalies of the Polar and Arctic cells than the traditional indices of mid-high latitude pattern such as the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. This study illustrates a three-dimensional picture of atmospheric variable anomalies in the troposphere that result in surface climatic anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT In the summer of 2010, western Russia experienced extreme heat, which was noted for its exceptional spatial spread, long duration, high intensity and impacts. We use an anomaly-based approach to decompose atmospheric variables into daily climatic components and anomalies from two reanalysis datasets. We show that a surface heat wave event results from a downward extension of an anomalously warm air column below a centre of positive geopotential height anomalies in the upper troposphere. Therefore, we use this approach to analyse all summer regional heat wave events with spatial scales larger than 2000 km and durations greater than 5 days over western Eurasia from 1980 to 2014. Our results demonstrate that the rapid increase in regional heat wave events over western Eurasia since 2010 is a direct response to the increasing frequency of large-scale, quasi-stationary positive centres of maximum height anomalies in the upper troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nine rainfall events affecting southern China in the 2020 summer were studied by a novel anomaly-based synoptic analysis approach, and the results were compared to those of standard synoptic analysis. These rainfall events occurred in the Dragon-boat rainy season and Meiyu rainy season from the Pearl River to the Yangtze and Huaihe rivers and did not entirely follow the climatic seasonal march of the summer monsoon. The first rainfall event occurred within the Dragon-boat rainy season and was associated with a broad rainfall area with scattered precipitation centers related to a broad convergence area of anomalous flows with scattered moist vorticity anomaly (MVA) centers located between two anomalous anticyclonic systems at 925 hPa. The other eight rainfall events appeared in the Meiyu rainy season and were generally associated with only a narrow convergence belt of anomalous flows and a positive MVA belt, sometimes with an anomalous cyclone moving eastward in the lower troposphere. The ECMWF model successfully predicted these anomalous convergence areas and MVA belts with lead times of 2–7 days. The advantages of this anomaly-based analysis approach include its ability to visually identify the location of a rainfall event, pinpoint possible meteorological causes and extend the model forecast length by the earlier detection of predictors. • Southern China summer rainfall events occurring in 2020 were studied based on the anomaly-based synoptic analysis approach. • Rain bands were associated with anomalous convergence bands and moist vorticity anomalies (MVA) in the lower troposphere. • The ECMWF model products can predict the anomalous convergence and MVA areas (or bands) with lead times of 5–7 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]