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Quantifying the contributions of climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) to streamflow alteration is significant for effective water resources management. However, numerous studies fail to differentiate the individual impacts of various HA on streamflow. In this study, a comprehensive streamflow attribution framework that incorporates climate, vegetation, and water withdrawal (WW) was proposed. In this framework, traditional streamflow attribution methods such as statistical analysis (Double Mass Curve and Slope Change Ratio of Accumulative Quantity), elasticity (Budyko), and modeling simulation (Variable Infiltration Capacity and Long Short-term Memory) are employed to separate the influence of meteorological factors (MF) on streamflow. Subsequently, the impacts of WW on streamflow are assessed using global WW data. The Residual Analysis method is utilized to quantify the effects of vegetation alteration caused by both CC (Lcc) and HA (Lha) on streamflow alteration. To demonstrate the applicability of our proposed framework, two stations, Xianyang and Huaxian, located within the Weihe River Basin in Northwest China were selected as the case study area. The results demonstrated that compared to the baseline period (1961–1990), the average contributions of MF, Lcc, Lha, and WW to streamflow reduction during the variation periods (1991–2019) were as follows: for the Xianyang station, 26.0%, 13.5%, 30.9%, and 29.6% respectively; and for the Huaxian station, 28.9%, 5.5%, 17.7%, and 47.9% respectively. Additionally, during the variation periods, the contributions of CC and HA to vegetation variation were 30.5% and 69.5% respectively in Xianyang, and 23.7% and 76.3% respectively in Huaxian. The framework developed herein also provides a solution for quantifying the indirect effects of CC on streamflow through vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture (SM) is a bridge between the atmosphere, vegetation and soil, and its dynamics reflect the energy exchange and transformation between the three. Among SM at different soil profiles, root zone soil moisture (RZSM) plays a significant role in vegetation growth. Therefore, reliable estimation of RZSM at the regional scale is of great importance for drought warning, agricultural yield estimation, forest fire monitoring, etc. Many satellite products provide surface soil moisture (SSM) at the thin top layer of the soil, approximately 2 cm from the surface. However, the acquisition of RZSM at the regional scale is still a tough issue to solve, especially in the semi-arid areas with a lack of in situ observations. Linking the dynamics of SSM and RZSM is promising to solve this issue. The soil moisture analytical relationship (SMAR) model can relate RZSM to SSM based on a simplified soil water balance equation, which is suitable for the simulation of soil moisture mechanisms in semi-arid areas. In this study, the Xiliaohe River Basin is the study area. The SMAR model at the pixels where in situ sites were located is established, and parameters (a, b, sw2, sc1) at these pixels are calibrated by a genetic algorithm (GA). Then the spatial parameters are estimated by the random forest (RF) regression method with the soil, meteorological and vegetation characteristics of the study area as explanatory variables. In addition, the importance of soil, climatic and vegetation characteristics for predicting SMAR parameters is analyzed. Finally, the spatial RZSM in the Xiliaohe River Basin is estimated by the SMAR model at the regional scale with the predicted spatial parameters, and the variation of the regional SMAR model performance is discussed. A comparison of estimated RZSM and in-situ RZSM showed that the SMAR model at the point and regional scales can both meet the RMSE benchmark from NASA of 0.06 cm3·cm−3, indicating that the method this study proposed could effectively estimate RZSM in semi-arid areas based on remotely sensed SSM data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The availability of the new generation Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) V06 products facilitates the utility of long-term higher spatial and temporal resolution precipitation data (0.1° × 0.1° and half-hourly) for monitoring and modeling extreme hydrological events in data-sparse watersheds. This study aims to evaluate the utility of IMERG Final run (IMERG-F), Late run (IMERG-L) and Early run (IMERG-E) products, in flood simulations and frequency analyses over the Mishui basin in Southern China during 2000–2017, in comparison with their predecessors, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products (3B42RT and 3B42V7). First, the accuracy of the five satellite precipitation products (SPPs) for daily precipitation and extreme precipitation events estimation was systematically compared by using high-density gauge station observations. Once completed, the modeling capability of the SPPs in daily streamflow simulations and flood event simulations, using a grid-based Xinanjiang model, was assessed. Finally, the flood frequency analysis utility of the SPPs was evaluated. The assessment of the daily precipitation accuracy shows that IMERG-F has the optimum statistical performance, with the highest CC (0.71) and the lowest RMSE (8.7 mm), respectively. In evaluating extreme precipitation events, among the IMERG series, IMERG-E exhibits the most noticeable variation while IMERG-L and IMERG-F display a relatively low variation. The 3B42RT exhibits a severe inaccuracy and the improvement of 3B42V7 over 3B42RT is comparatively limited. Concerning the daily streamflow simulations, IMERG-F demonstrates a superior performance while 3B42V7 tends to seriously underestimate the streamflow. With regards to the simulations of flood events, IMERG-F has performed optimally, with an average DC of 0.83. Among the near-real-time SPPs, IMERG-L outperforms IMERG-E and 3B42RT over most floods, attaining a mean DC of 0.81. Furthermore, IMERG-L performs the best in the flood frequency analyses, where bias is within 15% for return periods ranging from 2–100 years. This study is expected to contribute practical guidance to the new generation of SPPs for extreme precipitation monitoring and flood simulations as well as promoting the hydro-meteorological applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under current global change, the driving force of evolution of drought has gradually transitioned from a single natural factor to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. Therefore, widely used standardised drought indices based on assumption of stationarity are challenged and may not accurately assess characteristics of drought processes. In this study, a nonstationary standardised streamflow index (NSSI) that incorporates climate and reservoir indices as external covariates was developed to access nonstationary hydrological drought. The first step of the proposed approach is to apply methods of trend and change point analysis to assess the nonstationarity of streamflow series to determine type of streamflow regime, that is, the natural and altered regime. Then, different nonstationary models were constructed to calculate the NSSI by selecting climate indices as covariates for streamflow series with natural regime, and climate and reservoir indices as covariate for streamflow series with altered regime. Four stations in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River basin, China, were selected to examine the performance of the proposed NSSI. The results indicated that Dapoling (DPL), Changtaiguan (CTG), and Xixian (XX) stations had natural streamflow regimes, while the Nanwan (NW) station had an altered regime. The global deviances of the optimal nonstationary models were 17 (2.2%), 18 (2.9%), 26 (4.0%), and 22 (3.5%) less than those of stationary models for DPL, CTG, NW, and XX stations, respectively. Especially, for the NW station influenced by reservoir regulations, the frequency of slight drought and moderate drought of NSSI was 12.8% lower than and 13.1% greater than those of SSI, respectively. Overall, the NSSI that incorporates the influence of climate variability and reservoir regulations provided more reliable assessment of hydrological drought than the traditional SSI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flash droughts are extreme phenomena that have been identified using two different approaches. The first approach identifies these events based on unusually rapid intensification rates, whereas the second approach implicitly identifies short-term features. This latter approach classifies flash droughts into two types, namely, precipitation deficit and heat wave flash droughts (denoted as PDFD and HWFD). In this study, we evaluate these two approaches over the Yellow River basin (YRB) to determine which approach provides more accurate information about flash droughts and why. Based on the concept of intensification rate, a new quantitative flash drought identification method focused on soil moisture depletion during the onset–development phase is proposed. Its performance was evaluated by comparing the onset time and spatial dynamics of the identified flash droughts with PDFD and HWFD events identified using the second approach. The results show that the rapid-intensification approach is better able to capture the continuous evolution of a flash drought. Since the approach for identifying PDFD and HWFD events does not consider changes in soil moisture with time, it cannot ensure that the events exhibit rapid intensification, nor can it effectively capture flash droughts' onset. Evaluation of the results showed that the chosen hydrometeorological variables and corresponding thresholds, particularly that of temperature, are the main reasons for the poor performance of the PDFD and HWFD identification approach. This study promotes a deeper understanding of flash droughts that is beneficial for drought monitoring, early warning, and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Watershed management, disaster warning, and hydrological modeling require accurate spatiotemporal precipitation data sets. This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of a gauge-satellite-based precipitation product that merges the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) satellite precipitation product (SPP) and ground precipitation data at 134 rain gauges in the Xijiang River basin, South China. Two regression-based schemes, principal component regression (PCR) and multiple linear regression (MLR), were used to combine the gauge-based precipitation data and PERSIANN-CDR SPP and were compared at daily and annual scales. Furthermore, a hydrological model Variable Infiltration Capacity was used to calculate streamflow and to evaluate the impact of four different precipitation interpolation methods on the results of the hydrological model at the daily scale. The result shows that the PCR method performs better than MLR and can effectively eliminate the interpolation anomalies caused by terrain differences between observation points and surrounding areas. On the whole, the combined scheme consistently exhibits good performance and thus serves as a suitable tool for producing high-resolution gauge-and satellite-based precipitation datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human activities are two major driving forces affecting the hydrologic cycle, which further influence the stationarity of the hydrologic regime. Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from the normal hydrologic conditions affected by these two phenomena. In this study, we propose a framework for quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought. First, trend analysis and change‐point test are performed to determine variations of hydrological variables. After that, the fixed runoff threshold level method (TLM) and the standardized runoff index (SRI) are used to verify whether the traditional assessment methods for hydrological drought are applicable in a changing environment. Finally, two improved drought assessment methods, the variable TLM and the SRI based on parameter transplantation are employed to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought based on the reconstructed natural runoff series obtained using the variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model. The results of a case study on the typical semiarid Laohahe basin in North China show that the stationarity of the hydrological processes in the basin is destroyed by human activities (an obvious change‐point for runoff series is identified in 1979). The traditional hydrological drought assessment methods can no longer be applied to the period of 1980–2015. In contrast, the proposed separation framework is able to quantify the contributions of climate change and human activities to hydrological drought during the above period. Their ranges of contributions to hydrological drought calculated by the variable TLM method are 20.6–41.2% and 58.8–79.4%, and the results determined by the SRI based on parameter transplantation method are 15.3–45.3% and 54.7–84.7%, respectively. It is concluded that human activities have a dominant effect on hydrological drought in the study region. The novelty of the study is twofold. First, the proposed method is demonstrated to be efficient in quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought. Second, the findings of this study can be used for hydrological drought assessment and water resource management in water‐stressed regions under nonstationary conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A cascade model chain suitable for the risk of future DWAA events is proposed. • Evolution characteristics of DWAA in the future period of YRB are revealed. • Severity of DWAA events in far-future is greater than that in the near-future. • Extreme precipitation events have strong synchronization with DWAA events. At present, many studies have investigated the evolution characteristics, frequency estimation techniques, and prediction of droughts and floods, but a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution law and joint risk of these two composite extreme events is still lacking. The synergistic effect of dry and wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events has more significant consequences than a single drought and flood event, and these events have a considerable impact on agriculture, ecology, and economy. Furthermore, owing to the intensification of global warming and climate change, the potential synchronisation between DWAA events and extreme precipitation in the future requires special attention. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a reliable framework to analyse the evolution characteristics and risks of composite extreme events (DWAA). In this study, a cascade modelling chain comprising climate model downscaling, non-uniform bias-correction technique, and model integration was developed to study the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and combined risk impact of DWAA events. The proposed methodology was applied to the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in the historical period (1960–2014, Hist) and the future period (2021–2060, FUT1; and 2061–2100, FUT2) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3–7.0 and 5–8.5 scenarios. The results show that: (1) The constructed cascade modelling chain has high simulation accuracy for precipitation, and can be used to analyse future DWAA events. (2) Considering the precipitation characteristics under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the precipitation increases slightly in the near future FUT1 (about 5–10%), and increases significantly in the far future FUT2 (about 10–70%). (3) Following either scenario, the frequency of DWAA events is expected to decrease in the future compared to that in the Hist, but the average intensity is expected to increase compared to that in the Hist. (4) The joint risk of the impact area and intensity of future DWAA events of FUT2 is greater than that of FUT1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite precipitation products (SPPs) are critical data sources for hydrological prediction and extreme event monitoring, especially for ungauged basins. This study conducted a comprehensive hydrological evaluation of six mainstream SPPs (i.e., TMPA 3B42RT, CMORPH-RT, PERSIANN-RT, TMPA 3B42V7, CMORPH-CRT, and PERSIANN-CDR) over humid Xixian basin in central eastern China for a period of 14 years (2000–2013). The evaluation specifically focused on the performance of the six SSPs in capturing precipitation and streamflow extremes. Results show that the two post-real-time research products of TMPA 3B42V7 and CMORPH-CRT exhibit much better performance than that of their corresponding real-time SPPs for precipitation estimation at daily and monthly time scales. By contrast, the newly released post-real-time research product PERSIANN-CDR insignificantly improves precipitation estimates compared with the real-time PERSIANN-RT does at daily time scale. The daily streamflow simulation of TMPA 3B42V7 fits best with the observed streamflow series among those of the six SPPs. The three month-to-month gauge-adjusted post-real-time research products can simulate acceptable monthly runoff series. TMPA 3B42V7 and CMORPH-CRT present good performance in capturing precipitation and streamflow extremes, although they still exhibit non-ignorable deviation and occurrence time inconsistency problems compared with gauge-based results. Caution should be observed when using the current TMPA, CMORPH, and PERSIANN products for monitoring and predicting extreme precipitation and flood at such medium-sized basin. This work will be valuable for the utilization of SPPs in extreme precipitation monitoring, streamflow forecasting, and water resource management in other regions with similar climate and topography characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A case study on the evolution of hydrological drought in nonstationary environments is conducted over the Laohahe catchment in northern China. Using hydrometeorological observations during 1964–2009, meteorological and hydrological droughts are firstly analyzed with the threshold level method. Then, a comprehensive analysis on the changes within the catchment is conducted on the basis of hydrological variables and socioeconomic indices, and the whole period is divided into two parts: the undisturbed period (1964–1979) and the disturbed period (1980–2009). A separating framework is further introduced to distinguish droughts induced by different causes, that is, the naturalized drought and human-induced drought. Results showed that human activities are more inclined to play a negative role in aggravating droughts. Drought duration and deficit volume in naturalized conditions are amplified two to four times and three to eight times, respectively, when human activities are involved. For the two dry decades 1980s and 2000s, human activities have caused several consecutive drought events with rather long durations (up to 29 months). These results reflect the considerable impacts of human activities on hydrological drought, which could provide some theoretical support for local drought mitigation and water resources management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB) in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs) for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The most suitable ecological streamflow was calculated via kernel density estimation method. • Ecological drought was identified using the variable threshold method based on ecological streamflow. • Impacts of climate variability and human activities on ecological drought were quantified. • Human activities are the dominant factor aggravating the ecological drought in the Weihe River Basin. Although various studies have investigated the impacts of climate variability and human activities on drought, researches specifically analysing the impact on ecological drought are still limited. A deep understanding of the climatic and anthropogenic effects on ecological drought processes is crucial for ecological regulation and management in the changing environments. In the present study, an integrated approach for comprehensive understanding and quantification of ecological drought in rivers was proposed which first applied the nonparametric kernel density estimation (KDE) method to calculate the most suitable ecological streamflow (MSES) for a river ecosystem. Then, the variable threshold level method based on the MSES for each month and the run theory method were applied to identify the ecological drought duration and deficit volumes. Finally, a quantification approach based on hydrological model simulation was proposed to attribute the impacts of climate variability and human activities on ecological drought. The proposed approach was applied on two catchments, Xianyang (XY) and Huaxian (HX) within the Weihe River Basin (WRB) in northern China. Comparison results obtained using the two empirical methods revealed that the MSES calculated using the KDE method was reasonable and can be used for ecological drought identification. The identification results showed that both the median and upper quartile values of the drought duration and deficit volumes during the disturbed period (1991–2017) were greater than those during the undisturbed period (1961–1990). Quantification results showed that human activities were the dominant factor aggravating ecological drought in the WRB after 1990. The contribution rates of climate variability and human activities toward ecological drought variations were 25.6% and 74.4%, respectively, for the XY station and 42.7% and 57.3%, respectively, for the HX station. Although the WRB was selected as a case study, the proposed approach can also be applied to other regions to provide scientific guidance for regional ecological management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Nonstationary models that incorporate climatic variables and reservoir index are constructed. • The nonstationary models provide a better fitting of nonstationary flood and low flow series. • Nonstationary frequency analysis of flood and low flow in upper of Huaihe River Basin are conducted. • Climatic and reservoir impacts are related to nonstationarity of flood and low flow respectively. Conventional water infrastructure designs for flood and low flows are usually based on the assumption of stationarity of extreme events. However, recent evidence suggests that the influences of climate variability and human activities have made the hypothesis of stationarity questionable. In this study, we used the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) to construct a nonstationary model in which the parameters of the selected distributions were modelled as a function of climatic variables (i.e., climate indices and precipitation) and/or the reservoir index (RI). The nonstationary models were then used to analyse annual flood and low flow frequency at four hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin, including Dapoling (DPL), Changtaiguan (CTG), Zhuganpu (ZGP), and Xixian (XX) stations. Annual floods were represented by the maximum daily streamflow in each year, and low flows were represented by the 95th quantile of the daily streamflow (Q 95) in each year. The change point and trend analysis revealed that the flood series of the ZGP station and the low flow series of the DPL and XX stations exhibited significant downward and upward trends (p < 0.1)), respectively. The low flow series of the ZGP station showed a significant change point in 1980 (p < 0.1). GAMLSS modelling results showed that, in comparison with stationary models, nonstationary models that included precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation climate index as covariates for the gamma distribution location parameter provided a superior description of the flood series at the four stations. Nonstationary models that incorporated precipitation and/or RI as covariates for the Weibull distribution parameters fit the low flow series better than stationary models at all stations. Furthermore, we found that nonstationary models outperformed stationary models in terms of flood frequency analysis, covering all flood observation points and capturing the generally decreasing trend in flood series, as well as a decrease in the scatter of estimated flood value magnitudes. For the low flow frequency analysis, the comparison results showed that the nonstationary and stationary models performed identically for the DPL, CTG, and XX stations, where no significant change point was detected. However, for the ZGP station, where a significant change point was detected, the nonstationary models performed better than the stationary models and could accurately capture the changes in the magnitude of the estimated low flow values before and after the change point. Overall, the proposed nonstationary model can serve as a tool for nonstationary frequency analysis of flood and low flow series under the influence of climate variability and reservoir regulations, thus providing a reference for regional water infrastructure design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An observation-based natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method is proposed. • Human influence are quantified based on gridded socio-economic and land use data. • Climatic and anthropogenic influences on drought propagation are investigated. • Climate change accelerates the response of hydrological drought to meteorological drought. • Human activities delay the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought. It is crucial to investigate how a precipitation deficit is transformed into hydrological drought and how climate change and human activities affect this transformation process, which is helpful to gain a deep understanding of drought propagation process in this changing environment. This study proposed an observation-based natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method to assess the impacts of climate change and human activities on propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought. The method mainly consists of the following three steps: (1) selection of natural catchments through analysis of trends and change points of hydro-meteorological data, as well as statistics analysis of human influence based on land use and socio-economic indicators data sets; (2) calculation of drought propagation characteristics (e.g., drought severity, duration, and propagation time) based on run theory and the Pearson correlation coefficient; and (3) comparison of drought propagation characteristics of natural catchments between undisturbed and disturbed periods to identify the impacts of climate change on drought propagation, and comparison of the propagation characteristics between natural and human-impacted catchments during the disturbed period to investigate human influence on drought propagation. The Laohahe basin (with eleven sub-catchments), located in northern China, was evaluated via the proposed procedure, and standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) were used to characterize meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is suitable tool for distinguishing natural and human-impacted catchments, and separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on drought propagation. Furthermore, the comparison results of different schemes show that climate change accelerates the propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Laohahe basin, shortening it by approximately 3 months. Human activities, however, disturb and then delay the natural propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought, retarding it by 11–12 months. Although the Laohahe basin was selected as a case study in this paper, the proposed method can be applied in other regions as well to improve drought prediction and water resources management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A comprehensive framework for quantifying the climatic and anthropogenic influences on river hydrological health is proposed. • Human activities significantly aggravate the degradation of river hydrological health for the studied catchment. • Widespread artificial water withdrawal and reservoir operation are the two crucial human activities. • Adequate rainfall maintains the river hydrological health at a good status in the 1990 s. Climate change and human activities have together altered the river hydrological regime and consequently threatened the health of river ecosystems. Quantifying the impact of climate change and human activities on river hydrological health regimes is essential for water resource management and river ecology protection. Although previous studies have analysed the hydrologic alterations using some indicators, separating effects of climate change and human activities on river hydrological health is needed for developing adaptive measures to protect the ecosystem of river basins. In this study, a comprehensive assessment framework for quantifying climatic and anthropogenic influences on river hydrological health variation was proposed. The framework consists of the following steps: (1) the reconstruction of natural river streamflow using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model, (2) calculation of river hydrological health through the ecological flow threshold method, and (3) quantification of the impacts of climate change and human activities on river hydrological health using the 'observed–simulated' comparison approach. The semi-arid Laohahe Basin in northern China, which consists of three human-influenced catchments (Taipingzhuang, Chifeng, and Xinglongpo) and one natural catchment (Xiquan), was selected as the case study area. The case study demonstrated that the proposed procedure is efficient in quantifying climatic and anthropogenic influences on river hydrological health. The results revealed that the hydrological health level has significantly declined in the three human-influenced catchments for the human-influenced period (1980–2016), particularly in the 2000 s and 2010 s, where it degraded much more severely. Whereas, the relatively adequate rainfall in the 1990 s maintained the river hydrological health at a good status. The quantitative evaluation showed that human activities were the main driving factors for the hydrological health degradation during the whole human-influenced period, with contributions of 80.8%, 91.9%, and 86.0% for the Taipingzhuang, Chifeng, and Xinglongpo catchments, respectively. Widespread artificial water withdrawal and reservoir operation were the two crucial human activities that caused the degradation of river hydrological health for the studied catchment. The proposed procedure and findings of this study not only help in deeper understanding of the evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of river hydrological health in a changing environment in general, but also provide scientific basis for local water resources management and river ecosystems protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and its successor, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), have provided hydrologists with important precipitation data sources for hydrological applications in sparsely gauged or ungauged basins. This study proposes a framework for statistical and hydrological assessment of the TRMM- and GPM-era satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) in both near- and post-real-time versions at sub-daily temporal scales in a poorly gauged watershed in Myanmar. It evaluates six of the latest GPM-era SPPs: Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) "Early", "Late", and "Final" run SPPs (IMERG-E, IMERG-L, and IMERG-F, respectively), and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) near-real-time (GSMaP-NRT), standard version (GSMaP-MVK), and standard version with gauge-adjustment (GSMaP-GAUGE) SPPs, and two TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis SPPs (3B42RT and 3B42V7). Statistical assessment at grid and basin scales shows that 3B42RT generally presents higher quality, followed by IMERG-F and 3B42V7. IMERG-E, IMERG-L, GSMaP-NRT, GSMaP-MVK, and GSMaP-GAUGE largely underestimate total precipitation, and the three GSMaP SPPs have the lowest accuracy. Given that 3B42RT demonstrates the best quality among the evaluated four near-real-time SPPs, 3B42RT obtains satisfactory hydrological performance in 3-hourly flood simulation, with a Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.868, and it is comparable with the rain-gauge-based precipitation data (NSE = 0.895). In terms of post-real-time SPPs, IMERG-F and 3B42V7 demonstrate acceptable hydrological utility, and IMERG-F (NSE = 0.840) slightly outperforms 3B42V7 (NSE = 0.828). This study found that IMERG-F demonstrates comparable or even slightly better accuracy in statistical and hydrological evaluations in comparison with its predecessor, 3B42V7, indicating that GPM-era IMERG-F is the reliable replacement for TRMM-era 3B42V7 in the study area. The GPM scientific community still needs to further refine precipitation retrieving algorithms and improve the accuracy of SPPs, particularly IMERG-E, IMERG-L, and GSMaP SPPs, because ungauged basins urgently require accurate and timely precipitation data for flood control and disaster mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a new Grid-Xinanjiang model, which considering the spatial variability of grid cell topographical information and soil moisture storage capacity, was developed to simulate the flash flood for small mountain watersheds. The soil moisture storage capacity of each grids was calculated by using the Curve Number of SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service) model. The model was performed at 90m grid cells, which highlights the well representing of the sub-grid variability. The developed model was applied to six typical small mountain watersheds in different provinces of China for flash flood simulations. The performance of the Grid-Xinanjiang model was compared with that of the commonly used HEC-HMS model. The results show that the Grid-Xinanjiang model performs a little better than the HEC-HMS model in terms of the estimates of streamflow and the model efficiency coefficient. Most of the qualified ratios relative to runoff depth, peak flow, and peak time for the Grid-Xinanjiang model in the applied watersheds are more than 95%. Combining the critical discharge and the antecedent soil moisture condition, the newly developed Grid-Xinanjiang model can be used to calculate the flash flood warning critical rainfall for Chinese small mountain watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A framework for evaluating the cascade effect of drought and flood events in different sub-regions and multiple levels is proposed. • The correlation degree of meteorological-hydrological drought and flood in the Yangtze River Basin is higher than that in the Yellow River Basin. • The flood-flood and drought-drought scenarios aggravated the disaster, but the probability of the same drought and flood scenarios in the two basins was higher. The flood-drought scenario is conducive to mitigating drought. Under the background of global change, the multivariate attributes, multi-temporal and multi-watershed regional characteristics of extreme drought and flood disasters are significant. It is very important to identify the drought and wetness encounter law and spatial cascade effect in the source region-upper-middle-lower reaches of the basin. In this paper, the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins are taken as the research objects. Based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) characterizing meteorological drought and wetness and the standardized runoff index (SRI) characterizing hydrological drought and wetness, the evolution law of extreme drought and flood events in the source region-upper-middle-lower reaches of the two basins is analyzed. On this basis, the correlation analysis and transfer function analysis are used to explore the response relationship and lag effect between the two in different partitions. A two-dimensional joint distribution model is constructed by Copula function to quantitatively analyze the joint probability of drought and wetness encounters of 9 combined events, and to deeply analyze the impact of different drought and wetness encounter scenarios. The results show that: from 1957 to 2020, the two basins showed a trend from drought to wet. The SPI-12 in the Yellow River Basin ranged from-1.57 to 1.32, and that in the Yangtze River Basin ranged from-1.24 to 1.11. The severity of drought and wetness in the Yellow River Basin was higher than that in the Yangtze River Basin; The correlation coefficients between SPI and SRI in the source-upper-middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River (Yangtze River) were 0.78 (0.76), 0.23 (0.73), 0.44 (0.55) and 0.23 (0.63), respectively. The correlation degree of meteorological-hydrological drought and wetness in the Yangtze River Basin was significantly higher than that in the Yellow River Basin. The average probability of synchronous combination events of drought and wetness in the two basins is greater than 51.43 %. The probability of drought in the Yellow River Basin is greater than that of flood, while the Yangtze River Basin is the opposite. In the same drought and wetness scenario, an average of 54.1% of the event pairs were aggravated by disasters, and more than 52 % of the events in the wetness-drought scenario had obvious drought mitigation effects. The research results can provide important support for improving the early warning and risk management of river basin disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme flow projections are of considerable necessity for flood and drought disaster prevention and sustainable water resources management to adapt to future climate change. However, these projections are usually associated with large uncertainties arising from different sources. A numerical modeling system including three emission scenarios (ESs), four climate models (CMs), four statistical downscaling (SD) methods, four hydrological modeling (HM) schemes, and four probability distribution (PD) functions was established in this study to project future extreme flow changes at basin scales. This modeling system was employed in the following three watersheds with different climatic and topographical characteristics in China: The Upper Ganjiang River basin (UGRB) in the humid region, the Laoha River basin (LRB) in the semi-arid region, and the Yellow River source region (YRSR) in the semi-humid region. Subsequently, the analysis of variance approach (ANOVA) was used to quantify the contribution of different uncertainty sources in extreme flow projections. Results show that extreme high flow was projected to increase in all basins. By contrast, extreme low flow would decrease in UGRB, and inconsistent change signals were found in LRB and YRSR. The ANOVA-based assessment reveals that CM is generally the dominant uncertainty source for mean monthly streamflow and extreme low flow projections. ES explains a large proportion of total uncertainty for extreme low flow projection in the 2060s in UGRB because of the large difference in non-precipitation frequency projected under different ESs. SD is the main uncertainty source in extreme high flow projection in UGRB where extreme precipitation events frequently occur. Compared with other basins, HM produces relatively high uncertainty in LRB due to its inferior performance in historical streamflow simulations. PD contributes a low percentage of uncertainty in extreme flow projections. Interactions among uncertainty sources even produce larger uncertainties than most individual sources. Although future extreme flow projections are associated with non-negligible uncertainties, the projected remarkable changes in extreme high and low flows indicate that stakeholders should take certain measures to mitigate flood risks in the three basins and alleviate drought risks in UGRB • Extreme high flow would increase in the three basins with different climate features. • Extreme low flow would decrease in the watershed in humid regions. • Uncertainty of extreme flow projection is generally dominated by climate models. • Uncertainty sources have different impacts associated with watershed characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multi-satellite retrieved soil moisture products released from Europe Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) program have been widely used in plenty of fields including drought monitoring. In this study, Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) is applied to match the simulated soil moisture from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for filling the missing records of ESA CCI soil moisture (ESA CCI SM). The weekly Standard Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from ESA CCI SM dataset (ESA CCI SSI) is conducted to monitor the agricultural drought over the Yellow River Basin (YRB) during 2000~2012. The performance of ESA CCI SSI is compared with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index based on VIC model (VIC_scPDSI) and the anomaly of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The results show that the interpolated ESA CCI SM is significant (p<0.05) correlated with the observed soil moisture and more than 84% of the girds in the YRB display good correlations with the global reanalysis soil moisture. In terms of drought monitoring (i.e. drought area and drought intensity), ESA CCI SSI presents a similar spatiotemporal pattern with VIC_scPDSI, while exhibits a delayed response to SPI and SPEI significantly. Analysis of the typical drought event in 2002 indicates that ESA CCI SSI could effectively capture the emerge and development process of this event and the drought severity detected by ESA CCI SSI is higher than that of SPI and SPEI. Besides, it is found that spatial characteristics of ESA CCI SSI and the anomaly of NDVI are consistent in some areas of the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]