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The potential of satellite soil moisture (SM) in improving hydrological modeling has been addressed in synthetic experiments, but it is less explored in real data cases. Here, we investigate the added value of Soil Moisture and Passive (SMAP) and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) SM data to distributed hydrological modeling with the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) in a highly human disturbed catchment (126, 486 km2) featuring a network of SM and streamflow observations. The investigation is based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) considering SM errors from satellite data using the triple collocation. The assimilation of SMAP and ASCAT SM improved the surface (0–10 cm) and rootzone (10–30 cm) SM at >70% and > 50% stations of the basin, respectively. However, the assimilation effects on distributed streamflow simulation of the basin are un-significant and not robust. SM assimilation improved the simulated streamflow at two upstream stations, while it deteriorated the streamflow at the remaining stations. This can be largely attributed to the poor vertical soil water coupling of SWAT, suboptimal model parameters, satellite SM data quality, humid climate, and human disturbance to rainfall-runoff processes. This study offers strong evidence of integrating satellite SM into hydrological modeling in improving SM estimation and provides implications for achieving the added value of remotely sensed SM in streamflow improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The availability of streamflow records in Africa has been declining since the 1980s due to malfunctioning gauging stations and data collection failures. Africa also has insufficient hydrological information owing to the allocation of few resources to research efforts. Unreliable runoff datasets and large uncertainties in runoff trends due to climate change patterns and human activities are major challenges to water resource management in Africa. Therefore, this study aimed to improve runoff estimates and to assess runoff trend responses to climate change and human activities in Africa during 1981–2016. Using statistical methods, monthly gridded runoff datasets were generated for the period of 1981–2016 from a modified runoff curve number method calibrated with river discharge data from 535 gauging stations. According to the cross-validation results, the constructed runoff datasets comprised the Nash and Sutcliffe coefficients ranging from 0.5 to 1, coefficients of determination ranging from 0.5 to 1, and percent biases between ±25% for a large number of stations up to 73%, 80%, and 91% of the 535 gauged catchments used as references. Analysis of runoff trend responses to climate change and human activities revealed that land cover change contributed more (72%) to the observed net runoff change (0.30% a−1) than continental climate changes (28%). These contributions were results of cropland expansion rate of 0.46% a−1 and a precipitation increase of 0.07% a−1. The performance and simplicity of the statistical methods used in this study could be useful for improving runoff estimations in other regions with limited streamflow data. The results of the current study could be important to natural resource managers and decision-makers in terms of raising awareness of climate change adaptation strategies and agricultural land-use policies in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal variability of droughts over a region can often be characterized by combining orthogonal climate modes with corresponding temporal coefficients. The temporal characteristics of climate modes have been extensively addressed, while their spatial development remains largely unexplored. Hence, this study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of meteorological droughts from the perspective of climate modes. Nearly 50 years of monthly precipitation records (1960–2007) from 73 meteorological stations in the Poyang Lake basin, China, were used. The standardized precipitation index at a 1-month scale was applied to quantify meteorological droughts. The dominant modes of the droughts over the basin were identified using principal component analysis, K-means cluster analysis, and analysis of variance. Based on the trajectory migration identification method, the role of the climate modes in spatiotemporal evolution was analyzed. The results showed that four spatial modes of the droughts in the basin were identified. The spatial extents, centroids, and severity of the drought clusters based on the identified modes were significantly consistent with those based on the meteorological stations (R2 > 0.8, p < 0.05), which indicated that these modes could mostly match the large areas where serious dry/wet conditions occurred. Moreover, their performances in characterizing the spatiotemporal evolutional features (severity, migration distance, and pattern) of drought events were valid, which indicated that they might be considered as the elementary constituents of the historical meteorological drought events across the basin. The findings might offer some implications to understand drought development and causes through possible connections between the dominant modes and climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, with its rapid economic and social development and dramatic changes in land use, as an example with which to conduct this research, this paper analyzes the influence of traffic accessibility on land use and socioeconomic development by using Internet maps, points of interest (POI), and data about land use and socioeconomic development. The results of this study are as follows: (1) the calculation results of traffic accessibility can reflect the real situation because spatial distribution has an obvious feature of circle-like structure, and the development level of each township has high consistency; (2) major change characteristics in land use are that cultivated and forest lands are decreasing, and construction land is increasing, and it is obvious that the increase of construction land is featured by spatial autocorrelation and clusters of construction areas along the city borders; (3) traffic accessibility has a significant impact on land use status and changes and socioeconomic development, while the number of facilities has weak impact on land use, which is a reflection of advanced infrastructure in the urban agglomeration; and (4) the construction of transport infrastructure promotes the transformation of land use from water to construction land, therefore, more emphasis should be placed on protecting the river system in future infrastructure construction so as to improve the ecological benefits in the river basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assimilation of satellite soil moisture (SM) products with coarse resolution is promising in improving rainfall-runoff modeling, but it is largely impacted by the data assimilation (DA) strategy. This study performs the assimilation of a satellite soil moisture product from the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) in a physically based semidistributed hydrological model (SWAT) in the upper Huai River basin in China, with the objective to improve its rainfall-runoff simulation. In this assimilation, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is adopted with full consideration of the model and observation error, the rescaling technique for satellite SM, and the regional applicability of the hydrological model. The results show that the ESA CCI SM assimilation generally improves the streamflow simulation of the study catchment. It is more effective for low-flow simulation, while for very high-flow/large-flood modeling, the DA performance shows uncertainty. The less-effective performance on large-flood simulation lies in the relatively low dependence of rainfall-runoff generation on the antecedent SM as during which the SM is nearly saturated and the runoff is largely dominated by precipitation. Besides, the efficiency of DA is deteriorated by the dense forest coverage and the complex topography conditions of the basin. Overall, the ESA CCI SM assimilation improves the streamflow simulation of the SWAT model in particular for low flow. This study provides an encouragement for the application of the ESA CCI SM in water management, especially over low-flow periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • LVB experienced extensive conversion of forest and grass to agricultural land. • SWAT model presents good applicability in seasonal runoff modeling in LVB. • annual runoff generally increased with seasonal differences due to LULC changes. • hydrological drought aggravated over central western and eastern LVB with increased frequency and lengthened duration. Understanding the hydrological impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) changes is significant for sustainable water resources management and planning. The Lake Victoria basin (LVB) has experienced extensive forest and grass degradation and agricultural land expansion under rapid socio-economic development and population growth in recent decades. However, the hydrological impacts of LULC changes for the whole LVB is still poorly documented. This study first investigated the LULC changing effects of LVB, focusing on its impacts on the annual and seasonal runoff and the hydrological drought based on a distributed hydrological modeling of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT model showed comparatively good applicability in seasonal runoff simulation of LVB, with the percent bias (PBIAS) kept within ± 20 % and the coefficient of determination (R2) over 0.6 at ten hydrological stations available over the calibration and validation phases. Generally, the annual runoff obtained a monthly increase of 1.5 mm under collective LULC changes. Moreover, the LULC effects presented considerable seasonal dependence. A largest runoff increase of approximately 4 mm was detected in short rainy season attributed to the combined surface runoff and groundwater increase. Insignificant runoff increase was observed in long rainy and dry seasons under the complementary effects of surface runoff increase and groundwater decrease. Additionally, the hydrological drought was generally aggravated with increased drought frequency and lengthened duration, particularly for the central western and eastern regions with massive conversion of forest to agricultural land. The findings provide importance implication for rational water resources management and drought disaster response for the LVB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the capability of improving the distributed hydrological model performance by assimilating the streamflow observations. Incorrectly estimated model states will lead to discrepancies between the observed and estimated streamflow. Consequently, streamflow observations can be used to update the model states, and the improved model states will eventually benefit the streamflow predictions. This study tests this concept in upper Huai River basin. We assimilate the streamflow observations sequentially into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to update the model states. Both synthetic experiments and real data application are used to demonstrate the benefit of this data assimilation scheme. The experiment shows that assimilating the streamflow observations at interior sites significantly improves the streamflow predictions for the whole basin. Assimilating the catchment outlet streamflow improves the streamflow predictions near the catchment outlet. In real data case, the estimated streamflow at the catchment outlet is significantly improved by assimilating the in situ streamflow measurements at interior gauges. Assimilating the in situ catchment outlet streamflow also improves the streamflow prediction of one interior location on the main reach. This may demonstrate that updating model states using streamflow observations can constrain the flux estimates in distributed hydrological modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Identify soil moisture (SM) droughts in a 3-D domain. • Severe droughts mainly distributed in northeast and southwest of Southeastern Asia. • SM droughts were more serious in cold (aggravated) than warm season (alleviated). • The drought clusters shared two predominant routes of westward and southwest. • SM droughts propagated synergistically with precipitation and PET. Droughts evolve in space and time simultaneously, but its spatio-temporal propagation remains less explored. As one of the hotspot regions in global soil moisture (SM) drought, the Southeastern Asia supports billions of population and trillions of dollars in gross domestic product. Its high drought risk initiated a deep understanding of drought propagation in multiple dimensions for effective prevention. This study investigated the SM droughts with a merged dataset of remote sensing and land surface modeling over 1979–2016. Our results showed that 369 drought clusters and 145 drought events occurred. Spatially, severe droughts appeared mainly in southwest and northeast of the study region. Temporally, the droughts were more severe in cold season (winter and spring) than warm season (summer and autumn). In last four decades, the SM droughts alleviated in warm season but aggravated in cold season significantly, posing a challenge for drought mitigation, especially for spring crop growth vigorously. Furthermore, the drought clusters shared two predominant routes of westward and southwest. The westward route is for the droughts started in winter in south region, while the southwest route is for the droughts started in summer across the Yangtze River basin from northeast to southwest. At a drought event level, the SM drought propagated synergistically with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Precipitation was generally the primary driver and PET the secondary, particularly for SM droughts lasting in summer and winter in south region. The intensity of PET usually enhanced in spring and summer with temperature increasing and crop growing. The findings in drought propagation provide essential spatiotemporal structure for mechanism exploration and important clues for drought prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The decadal runoff changes in two contrasting watersheds in the Tienshan Mountains were analyzed. • Water balance closure was achieved by considering remotely sensed snow/ice melt and actual evapotranspiration (ET). • Rainfall and snow/ice melt dominated the increasing of decadal runoff in the humid Kashi watershed. • Rainfall and human activity jointly dominated the increasing of decadal runoff in the arid Boertala watershed. • Most of the changes in snow/ice melt and ET were contributed from the high and low elevation regions, respectively. Water processes in the Tienshan Mountains have undergone great changes under the impacts of climate warming and human activities. Here, based on the Budyko framework, we investigated the respective contributions of climate change and human activities to decadal runoff changes (1982–2014) in two contrary watersheds, i.e., the humid Kashi watershed in the Yili River valley and the arid Boertala watershed in the Ebinur Lake basin, in the Tienshan Mountains, where closing the water balance is difficult due to the scarcity of precipitation gauges. To achieve closure of the decadal water balance of the study watersheds, we estimated evapotranspiration from a complementary relationship model and snow/ice melt using the degree-day method with the remote sensing snow cover product. We found that the increase of rainfall (+61.6 mm) and snow/ice melt (+57.3 mm) dominated the increase of runoff (+87.2 mm, from 398.2 mm in 1982–1992 to 485.4 mm in 1993–2014) in the Kashi watershed, contributing 47.1 mm (54.8%) and 43.8 mm (51.0%), respectively, to the increase of runoff. Unlike the Kashi watershed, human activities contributed −13.8 mm (−103.7%) to the runoff (+13.9 mm, from 61.4 mm in 1982–1997 to 75.3 mm in 1998–2014) in the Boertala watershed. Most of the increase in rainfall (+62.5 mm) and snow/ice melt (+13.6 mm) was consumed by the increase of ET (+64.0 mm) instead of runoff. Further analysis showed that most of the increases in snow/ice melt and ET were contributed from the high (>2500 m) and low (<1500 m) elevation regions, respectively. Snowmelt showed a decreasing trend in low elevation regions. Our study highlighted the importance of snow/ice melt and ET in understanding decadal changes in runoff in the Tienshan Mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A method to measure the spatial extent of drought at any location was proposed. • The parameters of the method were reasonably specified using sensitivity tests. • The method was tested over a humid region located in southern China. • The difference in spatial lengths of 8 directions showed the anisotropy of drought. • The spatial extents of multi-scale droughts decreased as the time scales increased. The spatial characteristics of droughts are important for understanding drought development and water resource allocation. Most previous studies mainly focus on the spatial display of drought characteristics and the identification of drought spatial extents. Little attention is given to measuring the spatial extent of drought at any location. To this end, a new framework was proposed for measuring the spatial areal extent of drought based on spatial autocorrelation and anisotropy principle. The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre monthly gridded precipitation data with a spatial resolution of 25 km × 25 km were used. The standardized precipitation index on a three-month scale (SPI-3) was applied to characterize meteorological droughts. The base period of 1961–2010 (50 years) was selected for calculating climatology lengths (Cls)/spatial extents (SPEs) of meteorological droughts over the Poyang Lake basin. The parameters of the proposed method, including the drought threshold (SPI ≤ −1), the number of search directions (8), search radius (500 km), distance step (25 km), bandwidth (56.95 km), and angle tolerance (22.5°), were examined using sensitivity tests. The results showed that notable differences in Cls of 8 search directions confirmed the spatial anisotropy of droughts. The statistics of SPEs of the SPI-3 series over the basin were reported. SPEs were mainly between 50 and 100 × 104 km2. The distinctive spatial pattern of the SPEs was revealed and characterized by a high-value belt from the northeast and southwest and two low-value areas. The SPI on other time scales (SPI-1/SPI-6/SPI-12) revealed similar characteristics as SPI-3. Moreover, SPEs are potentially associated with time scales, revealing a decreasing change (or increasing spatial fragmentation) as time scales increased. The proposed method based on anisotropy is reasonable and useful for mining the spatial characteristics of droughts and can be applied in other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]