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Summary: We assessed post-fracture mortality in a population-based cohort of 122,045 individuals with cancers. Major fractures (hip, vertebrae, humerus, and forearm) were associated with early and long-term increased all-cause mortality. Introduction: Currently, there are no population-based data among cancer patients on post-fracture mortality risk across a broad range of cancer diagnoses. Our objective was to estimate the association of fracture with mortality in cancer survivors. Methods: Using Manitoba Cancer Registry data from the province of Manitoba, Canada, we identified all women and men with cancer diagnosed between January 1, 1987, and March 31, 2014. We then linked cancer data to provincial healthcare administrative data and ascertained fractures after cancer diagnosis and mortality to March 31, 2015. Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in those with versus without fracture were estimated from time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for multiple covariates. Results: The study cohort consisted of 122,045 cancer patients (median age 68 years, IQR 58–77, 49.2% female). During the median follow-up of 5.8 years from cancer diagnosis, we ascertained 7120 (5.8%) major fractures. All fracture sites, except for the forearm, were associated with increased mortality risk, even after multivariable adjustment. Excess mortality risk associated with a major fracture was greatest in the first year after fracture (HR 2.42, 95% CI 2.30–2.54) and remained significant > 5 years after fracture (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.50–1.70) and for fractures occurring > 10 years after cancer diagnosis (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.79–2.07). Conclusion: Fractures among cancer patients are associated with increased all-cause mortality. This excess risk is greatest in the first year and persists more than 5 years post-fracture; increased risk is also noted for fractures occurring up to and beyond 10 years after cancer diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diagnosis codes in administrative health data are routinely used to monitor trends in disease prevalence and incidence. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD), which is used to record these diagnoses, have been updated multiple times to reflect advances in health and medical research. Our objective was to examine the impact of transitions between ICD versions on the prevalence of chronic health conditions estimated from administrative health data.Methods: Study data (i.e., physician billing claims, hospital records) were from the province of Manitoba, Canada, which has a universal healthcare system. ICDA-8 (with adaptations), ICD-9-CM (clinical modification), and ICD-10-CA (Canadian adaptation; hospital records only) codes are captured in the data. Annual study cohorts included all individuals 18 + years of age for 45 years from 1974 to 2018. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate annual age- and sex-adjusted prevalence and model parameters (i.e., slopes and intercepts) for 16 chronic health conditions. Statistical control charts were used to assess the impact of changes in ICD version on model parameter estimates. Hotelling's T2 statistic was used to combine the parameter estimates and provide an out-of-control signal when its value was above a pre-specified control limit.Results: The annual cohort sizes ranged from 360,341 to 824,816. Hypertension and skin cancer were among the most and least diagnosed health conditions, respectively; their prevalence per 1,000 population increased from 40.5 to 223.6 and from 0.3 to 2.1, respectively, within the study period. The average annual rate of change in prevalence ranged from -1.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.8, -1.4) for acute myocardial infarction to 14.6% (95% CI: 13.9, 15.2) for hypertension. The control chart indicated out-of-control observations when transitioning from ICDA-8 to ICD-9-CM for 75% of the investigated chronic health conditions but no out-of-control observations when transitioning from ICD-9-CM to ICD-10-CA.Conclusions: The prevalence of most of the investigated chronic health conditions changed significantly in the transition from ICDA-8 to ICD-9-CM. These results point to the importance of considering changes in ICD coding as a factor that may influence the interpretation of trend estimates for chronic health conditions derived from administrative health data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The Fracture Risk Evaluation Model (FREM) identifies individuals at high imminent risk of major osteoporotic fractures. We validated FREM on 74,828 individuals from Manitoba, Canada, and found significant fracture risk stratification for all FREM scores. FREM performed better than age alone but not as well as FRAX® with BMD. Introduction: The FREM is a tool developed from Danish public health registers (hospital diagnoses) to identify individuals over age 45 years at high imminent risk of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fracture (HF). In this study, our aim was to examine the ability of FREM to identify individuals at high imminent fracture risk in women and men from Manitoba, Canada. Methods: We used the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) Program registry, and identified women and men aged 45 years or older undergoing baseline BMD assessment with 2 years of follow-up data. From linked population-based data sources, we constructed FREM scores using up to 10 years of prior healthcare information. Results: The study population comprised 74,828 subjects, and during the 2 years of observation, 1612 incident MOF and 299 incident HF occurred. We found significant fracture risk stratification for all FREM scores, with AUC estimates of 0.63–0.66 for MOF for both sexes and 0.84 for women and 0.65–0.67 for men for HF. FREM performed better than age alone but not as well as FRAX® with BMD. The inclusion of physician claims data gave slightly better performance than hospitalization data alone. Overall calibration for 1-year MOF prediction was reasonable, but HF prediction was overestimated. Conclusion: In conclusion, the FREM algorithm shows significant fracture risk stratification when applied to an independent clinical population from Manitoba, Canada. Overall calibration for MOF prediction was good, but hip fracture risk was systematically overestimated indicating the need for recalibration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Identifying children at high risk of developing asthma can facilitate prevention and early management strategies. We developed a prediction model of children's asthma risk using objectively collected population-based children and parental histories of comorbidities., Methods: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using administrative data from Manitoba, Canada, and included children born from 1974 to 2000 with linkages to ≥1 parent. We identified asthma and prior comorbid condition diagnoses from hospital and outpatient records. We used two machine-learning models: least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) to identify important predictors. The predictors in the base model included children's demographics, allergic conditions, respiratory infections, and parental asthma. Subsequent models included additional multiple comorbidities for children and parents., Results: The cohort included 195,666 children: 51.3% were males and 17.7% had asthma diagnosis. The base LR model achieved a low predictive performance with sensitivity of 0.47, 95% confidence interval (0.45-0.48), and specificity of 0.67 (0.66-0.67) using a predicted probability threshold of 0.20. Sensitivity significantly improved when children's comorbidities were included using LASSO LR: 0.71 (0.69-0.72). Predictive performance further improved by including parental comorbidities (sensitivity = 0.72 [0.70-0.73], specificity = 0.69 [0.69-0.70]). We observed similar results for the RF models. Children's menstrual disorders and mood and anxiety disorders, parental lipid metabolism disorders and asthma were among the most important variables that predicted asthma risk., Conclusion: Including children and parental comorbidities to children's asthma prediction models improves their accuracy., (© 2023 The Authors. Pediatric Allergy and Immunology published by European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Introduction: Administrative health data capture diagnoses using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), which has multiple versions over time. To facilitate longitudinal investigations using these data, we aimed to map diagnoses identified in three ICD versions - ICD-8 with adaptations (ICDA-8), ICD-9 with clinical modifications (ICD-9-CM), and ICD-10 with Canadian adaptations (ICD-10-CA) - to mutually exclusive chronic health condition categories adapted from the open source Clinical Classifications Software (CCS)., Methods: We adapted the CCS crosswalk to 3-digit ICD-9-CM codes for chronic conditions and resolved the one-to-many mappings in ICD-9-CM codes. Using this adapted CCS crosswalk as the reference and referring to existing crosswalks between ICD versions, we extended the mapping to ICDA-8 and ICD-10-CA. Each mapping step was conducted independently by two reviewers and discrepancies were resolved by consensus through deliberation and reference to prior research. We report the frequencies, agreement percentages and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from each step., Results: We identified 354 3-digit ICD-9-CM codes for chronic conditions. Of those, 77 (22%) codes had one-to-many mappings; 36 (10%) codes were mapped to a single CCS category and 41 (12%) codes were mapped to combined CCS categories. In total, the codes were mapped to 130 adapted CCS categories with an agreement percentage of 92% (95% CI: 86%-98%). Then, 321 3-digit ICDA-8 codes were mapped to CCS categories with an agreement percentage of 92% (95% CI: 89%-95%). Finally, 3583 ICD-10-CA codes were mapped to CCS categories; 111 (3%) had a fair or poor mapping quality; these were reviewed to keep or move to another category (agreement percentage = 77% [95% CI: 69%-85%])., Conclusions: We developed crosswalks for three ICD versions (ICDA-8, ICD-9-CM, and ICD-10-CA) to 130 clinically meaningful categories of chronic health conditions by adapting the CCS classification. These crosswalks will benefit chronic disease studies spanning multiple decades of administrative health data., Competing Interests: Conflicts of interest: All authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.