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Residential customers are the main users generally need a great quantity of natural gas in distribution systems, especially, in the wintry weather season since it is particularly consumed for cooking and space heating. Hence, it ought to be noninterruptible. Since distribution systems have a restricted ability for supply, reasonable planning and prediction through the whole year, especially in winter seasons, have emerged as vital. The Ridge Regression (RR) is formulated mainly to decrease collinearity results through shrinking the regression coefficients and reducing the impact in the model of variables. Conic multivariate adaptive regression splines ((C)MARS) model is constructed as an effective choice for MARS by using inverse problems, statistical learning, and multi-objective optimization theories. In this approach, the model complexity is penalized in the structure of RR and it is constructed a relaxation by utilizing continuous optimization, called Conic Quadratic Programming (CQP). In this study, CMARS and RR are applied to obtain forecasts of residential natural gas demand for local distribution companies (LDCs) that require short-term forecasts, and the model performances are compared by using some criteria. Here, our analysis shows that CMARS models outperform RR models. For one-day-ahead forecasts, CMARS yields a MAPE of about 4.8%, while the same value under RR reaches 8.5%. As the forecast horizon increases, it can be seen that the performance of the methods becomes worse, and for a forecast one week ahead, the MAPE values for CMARS and RR are 9.9% and 18.3%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In our study, we integrate the data uncertainty of real-world models into our regulatory systems and robustify them. We newly introduce and analyse robust time-discrete target–environment regulatory systems under polyhedral uncertainty through robust optimization. Robust optimization has reached a great importance as a modelling framework for immunizing against parametric uncertainties and the integration of uncertain data is of considerable importance for the model’s reliability of a highly interconnected system. Then, we present a numerical example to demonstrate the efficiency of our new robust regression method for regulatory networks. The results indicate that our approach can successfully approximate the target–environment interaction, based on the expression values of all targets and environmental factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial technologies offer high flexibility to handle substantial amount of spatial data and wide range of modelling capabilities. Remotely sensed data are the most significant data source used in spatial technologies. However, it is often associated with uncertainties due to atmospheric effects (i.e. absorption and scattering by atmospheric gases and aerosols). Methods based on rigorous treatment of radiative transfer models still have some drawbacks in the inversion of top of atmospheric reflectance values to surface reflectance values on large numbers of satellite images. In this paper, our aim is to represent a more flexible (adaptive) approach for the regional atmospheric correction by employing nonparametric regression splines within the frame of inverse problems and modern techniques of continuous optimization. To achieve this objective, atmospheric correction models obtained through conic multivariate adaptive regression splines, which is an alternative method to multivariate adaptive regression splines by constructing a penalized residual sum of squares as a Tikhonov regularization problem, are applied on a set of satellite images in order to convert the top of atmospheric reflectance values into surface reflectance values. The results are compared with the ones obtained by both multivariate adaptive regression splines and a radiative transfer-based method. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]