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In this paper we investigate whether long run time series of income per capita are better described by a trend-stationary model with few structural changes or by unit root processes in which permanent stochastic shocks are responsible for the observed growth discontinuities. For a group of advanced and developing countries in the Maddison database, we employ a unit root test that allows for an unspecified number of breaks under the alternative hypothesis (up to some ex ante determined maximum). Monte Carlo simulations studying the finite sample properties of the test are reported and discussed. When compared with previous findings in the literature, our results show less evidence against the unit root hypothesis. We find even fewer rejections when relaxing the assumption of Gaussian shocks. Our results are broadly consistent with the implications of evolutionary macro models which posit frequent growth shifts and fat-tailed distribution of aggregate shocks.

The numerical strength of the evidence of matching DNA profiles is conveyed by a likelihood ratio. This is the probability under one hypothesis, generally from the Prosecution, divided by the probability of the evidence under an alternative hypothesis, generally from the Defense. The probabilities can be calculated to reflect the effects of population structure or of relatedness between individuals listed under the alternative hypotheses.

Assessing our confidence in the choices we make is important to making adaptive decisions, and it is thus no surprise that we excel in this ability. However, standard models of decision-making, such as the drift-diffusion model (DDM), treat confidence assessment as a post hoc or parallel process that does not directly influence the choice, which depends only on accumulated evidence. Here, we pursue the alternative hypothesis that what is monitored during a decision is an evolving sense of confidence (that the to-be-selected option is the best) rather than raw evidence. Monitoring confidence has the appealing consequence that the decision threshold corresponds to a desired level of confidence for the choice, and that confidence improvements can be traded off against the resources required to secure them. We show that most previous findings on perceptual and value-based decisions traditionally interpreted from an evidence-accumulation perspective can be explained more parsimoniously from our novel confidence-driven perspective. Furthermore, we show that our novel confidence-driven DDM (cDDM) naturally generalizes to decisions involving any number of alternative options - which is notoriously not the case with traditional DDM or related models. Finally, we discuss future empirical evidence that could be useful in adjudicating between these alternatives., Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, ISSN:1531-5320, ISSN:1069-9384

Biological patterns across latitudinal gradients elucidate a number of striking natural clines from which numerous processes can be further explored. The trade‐off between reproduction and somatic maintenance and growth represents a suite of life‐history traits with variable energy allocation and potential latitudinal patterns. Specifically, male sexually dimorphic traits in female choice systems represent one such reproductive investment constrained by resource acquisition and subsequent allocation. Latitudinal variation in sexual dimorphism has been suggested although the relationship between dimorphic traits and latitude are conflicting. Here, we test alternative hypotheses regarding this pattern using two broadly distributed vertebrates exhibiting sexually dimorphic traits. We hypothesized that the exaggeration of dimorphic traits correlates with latitude, with males having exaggerated sexually dimorphic traits at either higher or lower latitudes. Results indicate that male sexually dimorphic traits are exaggerated at lower latitudes while relative gonopodium size in Poecilia latipinna was larger at higher latitudes. This pattern may be a result of lower latitude populations experiencing greater population densities and longer access to resources that could manifest in females more intensively selecting for higher quality males in lower latitudes. Experimental work should address this pattern and investigate mechanistic processes., We test the hypothesis that the exaggeration of sexually dimorphic traits correlates with latitude, with males having exaggerated sexually dimorphic traits at either higher or lower latitudes. Results indicate that male sexually dimorphic traits are exaggerated at lower latitudes. Experimental work should address this pattern and investigate mechanistic processes.

Background Misinterpretations of the p-value in null-hypothesis statistical testing are common. We aimed to determine the implications of observed p-values in critical care randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Methods We included three cohorts of published RCTs: Adult-RCTs reporting a mortality outcome, Pediatric-RCTs reporting a mortality outcome, and recent Consecutive-RCTs reporting p-value ≤.10 in six higher-impact journals. We recorded descriptive information from RCTs. Reverse Bayesian implications of obtained p-values were calculated, reported as percentages with inter-quartile ranges. Results Obtained p-value was ≤.005 in 11/216 (5.1%) Adult-RCTs, 2/120 (1.7%) Pediatric-RCTs, and 37/90 (41.1%) Consecutive-RCTs. An obtained p-value .05–.0051 had high False Positive Rates; in Adult-RCTs, minimum (assuming prior probability of the alternative hypothesis was 50%) and realistic (assuming prior probability of the alternative hypothesis was 10%) False Positive Rates were 16.7% [11.2, 21.8] and 64.3% [53.2, 71.4]. An obtained p-value ≤.005 had lower False Positive Rates; in Adult-RCTs the realistic False Positive Rate was 7.7% [7.7, 16.0]. The realistic probability of the alternative hypothesis for obtained p-value .05–.0051 (ie, Positive Predictive Value) was 28.0% [24.1, 34.8], 30.6% [27.7, 48.5], 29.3% [24.3, 41.0], and 32.7% [24.1, 43.5] for Adult-RCTs, Pediatric-RCTs, Consecutive-RCTs primary and secondary outcome, respectively. The maximum Positive Predictive Value for p-value category .05–.0051 was median 77.8%, 79.8%, 78.8%, and 81.4% respectively. To have maximum or realistic Positive Predictive Value >90% or >80%, RCTs needed to have obtained p-value ≤.005. The credibility of p-value .05–.0051 findings were easy to challenge, and the credibility to rule-out an effect with p-value >.05 to .10 was low. The probability that a replication study would obtain p-value ≤.05 did not approach 90% unless the obtained p-value was ≤.005. Conclusions Unless the obtained p-value was ≤.005, the False Positive Rate was high, and the Positive Predictive Value and probability of replication of “statistically significant” findings were low.

Definitive clinical trials are resource intensive, often requiring a large number of participants over several years. One approach to improving the efficiency of clinical trials is to incorporate historical information into the primary trial analysis. This approach has tremendous potential in the areas of pediatric or rare disease trials, where achieving reasonable power is difficult. In this manuscript, we introduce a novel Bayesian group-sequential trial design based on Multisource Exchangeability Models, which allows for dynamic borrowing of historical information at the interim analyses. Our approach achieves synergy between group sequential and adaptive borrowing methodology to attain improved power and reduced sample size. We explore the frequentist operating characteristics of our design through simulation and compare our method to a traditional group-sequential design. Our method achieves earlier stopping of the primary study while increasing power under the alternative hypothesis but has a potential for type I error inflation under some null scenarios. We discuss the issues of decision boundary determination, power and sample size calculations, and the issue of information accrual. We present our method for a continuous and binary outcome, as well as in a linear regression setting.

This paper proposes two ratio-type statistics to sequentially detect mean and variance change-points in the long-memory time series. The limiting distributions of monitoring statistics under the no change-point null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis as well as change-point misspecified hypothesis are proved. In particular, a sieve bootstrap approximation method is proposed to determine the critical values. Simulations indicate that the new monitoring procedures have better finite sample performance than the available off-line tests when the change-point nears to the beginning time of monitoring, and can discriminate between mean and variance change-point. Finally, the authors illustrate their procedures via two real data sets: A set of annual volume of discharge data of the Nile river, and a set of monthly temperature data of northern hemisphere. The authors find a new variance change-point in the latter data.

The aim of the study is find out the impact of applying different total quality management (TQM) practices on the performance of employees in the Lebanese industrial sector. The implementation of total quality management in Lebanese companies is very narrow where few companies work to apply Total Quality Management elements and concepts in its operations. Sanita is a Lebanese company that has applied the principles of total quality management relatively in all of its operations, so it has a large share of its products in the Lebanese market. In this quantitative survey designed study, 160 self-administered questionnaires were distributed for employees working at different career level (Top level management / Middle level management / Supervisor / Operator /technician / other workers) in Sanita main branch (Halat -Lebanon) and Sanita factory (Zouk Mosbeh -Lebanon). The survey concluded various questions related to the dependent variable employee performance and the independent variable related to practices of total quality management (leadership, teamwork, training and education, empowerment, communication). Using the quantitative correlation Pearson test, a strong influence emerged for the implementation of TQM principles on the performance of employees at Sanita and its factories; thus accepting the main alternative hypothesis.

We conducted a preregistered multilaboratory project ( k = 36; N = 3,531) to assess the size and robustness of ego-depletion effects using a novel replication method, termed the paradigmatic replication approach. Each laboratory implemented one of two procedures that was intended to manipulate self-control and tested performance on a subsequent measure of self-control. Confirmatory tests found a nonsignificant result ( d = 0.06). Confirmatory Bayesian meta-analyses using an informed-prior hypothesis (δ = 0.30, SD = 0.15) found that the data were 4 times more likely under the null than the alternative hypothesis. Hence, preregistered analyses did not find evidence for a depletion effect. Exploratory analyses on the full sample (i.e., ignoring exclusion criteria) found a statistically significant effect ( d = 0.08); Bayesian analyses showed that the data were about equally likely under the null and informed-prior hypotheses. Exploratory moderator tests suggested that the depletion effect was larger for participants who reported more fatigue but was not moderated by trait self-control, willpower beliefs, or action orientation.

En esta investigación titulada: “Inteligencia emocional y dirección estratégica caso: municipalidad provincial de Huancavelica, periodo 2015”, se pretende dar respuesta a la pregunta, ¿De qué manera la inteligencia emocional influye en la dirección estratégica de la Municipalidad Provincial de Huancavelica, 2015?; Asimismo, el objetivo general de la tesis es determinar de qué manera la inteligencia emocional influye en la dirección estratégica de la Municipalidad Provincial de Huancavelica, 2015. La investigación realizada es descriptivo-explicativa; Por lo cual se utilizaron el método inductivo, analítico y descriptivo. Para contrastar la hipótesis se utilizó la estadística inferencial con su distribución Chi Cuadrado, puesto que los datos obtenidos son cualitativos y no paramétricos. Si en la colecta y procesamiento de los datos se halla un < , se aceptará la hipótesis nula (Ho). Pero si en la colecta y procesamiento de los datos se halla un > , se aceptará la hipótesis alternativa (Ha), al 5% de significancia estadística. El principal hallazgo de la tesis consiste en que el Chi-cuadrado calculado es de 18,97 frente a un Chi-cuadrado 12,59 ( > ), por lo que se rechaza la hipótesis nula a favor de la hipótesis alternativa, al 5% de significancia estadística. Por lo tanto; se concluye que “La inteligencia emocional influye significativamente en la dirección estratégica de la Municipalidad Provincial de Huancavelica, 2015”.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the significance of the effect of service quality dimensions including reliability, responsiveness, assurance, empathy, tangibles to the level of poor people's health insurance patient satisfaction in Public Health Center of Pahandut Palangkaraya City. Based on the analysis of overall service gap dimensions, the fit between the services provided by health centers in the hope of Palangkaraya Pahandut community insurence patients there is a gap / level of satisfaction (- 10:54), these scores were categorized in groups, although not yet fully meet the expectations of patients community insurence, but service provided is good enough. Based on the results of the regression analysis above we can conclude that all the variables of service quality dimensions (Reliability, Responsiveness, Assurance, Empathy, Tangible) jointly have a significant positive effect on patient satisfaction and Public Health Center of Pahandut Palangka raya City. These results indicate that the alternative hypothesis (Ha) can be accepted and the hypothesis zero (Ho) is rejected. While the major effect is variable Assurance (1052), Reliability (1004), Tangible (1039), Responsiveness (1714), Empathy (1029) on patient satisfaction community insurence. The next is the R ² value of (0456) showed that 45.6% of patient satisfaction variables can be explained by service quality are Reliability, Responsiveness, Assurance, Empathy, and the remaining 54.4% Tangible while others described the other variables that are not included in this study model . Then, based on gap analysis (a match between expectations of the performance) of each dimension, are as follows, Responsiveness variable (-0.78) score was categorized as moderate. then followed the next variable Tangible variable (-0.88), variable Reliability (-0.57), assurance variable (-0.11), Empathy and the latter variable (-0.11). Although not yet fully provided the service as expected but the district Public Health Center of Pahandut Palangka raya City good enough but should be improved.

Confidence assessment (CA) involves students stating alongside each of their answers a confidence rating (e.g. 0 low to 10 high) to express how certain they are that their answer is correct. Each student’s score is calculated as the sum of the confidence ratings on the items that they answered correctly, minus the sum of the confidence ratings on the items that they answered incorrectly; this scoring system is designed to incentivize students to give truthful confidence ratings. Previous research found that secondary-school mathematics students readily understood the negative-marking feature of a CA instrument used during one lesson, and that they were generally positive about the CA approach. This paper reports on a quasi-experimental trial of CA in four secondary-school mathematics lessons (N = 475 students) across time periods ranging from 3 weeks up to one academic year, compared to business-as-usual controls. A meta-analysis of the effect sizes across the four schools gave an aggregated Cohen’s d of –0.02 [95% CI –0.22, 0.19] and an overall Bayes Factor B01 of 8.48. This indicated substantial evidence for the null hypothesis that there was no difference between the attainment gains of the intervention group and the control group, relative to the alternative hypothesis that the gains were different. I conclude that incorporating confidence assessment into low-stakes classroom mathematics formative assessments does not appear to be detrimental to students’ attainment, and I suggest reasons why a clear positive outcome was not obtained.

The objective of the research is to know whether the aplication of Picture word inductive model improve students’ vocabulary at SMP Negeri 2 Jikumerasa. In this research, the researcher used quantitative research method with pre-Experimental design of the one group pretest and posttest. The sample of the research was 26 students learning at the seventh grade of SMP Negeri 2 Jikumerasa which consist of 7 male students and 19 female students. The data were collected by using 30 items of multiple choices test. The data obtained were analyzed by applying dependent t-test the formula. The result of the analysis show that the average score in posttest X2 = 1818 is greater than score of pretest X1 = 1449, calculation of t-test = 9.39 exceeds the t-table = 1.711 at significant level of = 0.05. Thus the alternative hypothesis (Hα) stating that the use of Picture word inductive model improve students English vocabulary is accepted and the null hypothesis (H0) stating that the Picture Word Inductive Model can not improve students‟ English vocabulary is rejected.

This research was conducted to measure whether there is a correlation between learning motivation and reading comprehension achievement. The population of this research is the first-grade students of SMAN 8 Bekasi that consists of 99 students and was divided into three classes. The total samples are 40 students taken from the entire population by simple random sampling. The method was used in this research is a survey. It means quantitative analysis by using a questionnaire to a lot of objects. In his study, the writer gave questionnaires that consist of forty questions to know their learning motivation. And then, the writer gave multiple-choice tests to know reading comprehension achievement. The result of the calculation of correlation coefficient Phi with 5% level of significant from the degree of freedom (df) = N is 3, 841 and the interpretation of the score 2 count and 2 table indicated that 2 count (32, 727) > 2 table (3,841). Based on the result above, the null hypothesis (Ho) is rejected, and the alternative hypothesis (Ha) is accepted. There is a correlation between learning motivation and reading comprehension achievement among the X grade students of SMAN 8 Bekasi.

The present study is a conceptual replication of the functional alternative hypothesis, which states that when it is difficult for some persons to form satisfactory interpersonal relationships they turn to parasocial relationships as a functional alternative. In this study, the

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are fundamental to the economy of all countries, representing the majority, with a considerable contribution to GDP, as well as generating jobs; for this reason, it must seek to remain in the market. The objective is to analyze the impact of training on the organizational performance of SMEs in northwestern Mexico, applying the statistical technique of structural equations model (SEM-PLS); the research was conducted to 195, considering the commercial, industrial and services, is a quantitative study, descriptive, correlational, causal, using the statistical technique of structural equations with the SMART PLS 3.3.2 software, and not experimental cross-sectional. The alternative hypothesis is accepted, since training has an effect on the organizational performance of SMEs in northwestern Mexico. It is highly significant because there is very strong evidence of the causality of the mediating variable training on the organizational performance of SMEs with 99.9% reliability. Training has the greatest effect on organizational performance because each unit that increases training will have an effect of +0.453, being the variable with the greatest cause-effect impact on organizational performance in SMEs in northwestern Mexico.

Researchers increasingly use Bayes factor for hypotheses evaluation. There are two main applications: null hypothesis Bayesian testing (NHBT) and informative hypothesis Bayesian testing (IHBT). As will be shown in this article, NHBT is sensitive to the specification of the scale parameter of the prior distribution, while IHBT is not. As will also be shown in this article, for NHBT using four different Bayes factors, use of the recommended default values for the scaling parameters results in unpredictable operating characteristics, that is, the Bayes factor will usually be biased against or in favor of the null hypothesis. As will furthermore be shown in this article, this problem can be addressed by choosing the scaling parameter such that the Bayes factor is 19 in favor of the null hypothesis over the alternative hypothesis if the observed effect size is equal to zero, because this renders a Bayes factor with clearly specified operating characteristics. However, this does not solve all problems regarding NHBT. The discussion of this article contains elaborations with respect to: the multiverse of Bayes factors; the choice of "19"; Bayes factor calibration outside the context of the univariate normal linear model; and, reporting the results of NHBT. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Students' interest in mathematics is different. Students who are less interested in mathematics subject matter because mathematics subject matter is difficult to understand, difficult to solve problems in problems, difficulty memorizing formulas, and difficulty counting quickly. Interests and difficulties of students in mathematics can be overcome, one of them is by learning innovations that involve the role of students more through collaboration in study groups, one of which is by applying problem based learning models and discovery learning models. The purpose of this study was to determine the differences in mathematics learning outcomes in data presentation materials through Problem Based Learning and Discovery Learning models. This research was conducted in Ciluar 2 Public Elementary School, Bogor City, Class V A and V B with 62 students as research subjects. The research was conducted from April to May in the even semester. The calculation of the N-Gain of the Problem Based Learning model is 82 with high criteria and the N-Gain of the Discovery Learning model is 61 with medium criteria. So that the N-Gain in the experimental class with the Problem Based Learning model is greater than the control class with the Discovery Learning model. Then in the homogeneity test, the data is homogeneous because it is smaller than Xtable, the value of Fcount Ftable is 1.34 1.84. Furthermore, in hypothesis testing, it was found that tcount of 5.1 is greater than ttable of 2.003 indicating that H0 (zero hypothesis) is rejected and Ha (alternative hypothesis) is accepted. Based on the results of the research above, it can be stated that the Problem Based Learning and Discovery Learning models have differences in the mathematics learning outcomes of data presentation material, in other words that the Problem Based Learning model is more effective than the Discovery Learning model in mathematics lessons on data presentation material.

Ecological and evolutionary research questions are increasingly requiring the integration of research fields along with larger data sets to address fundamental local‐ and global‐scale problems. Unfortunately, these agendas are often in conflict with limited funding and a need to balance animal welfare concerns. Planned missing data design (PMDD), where data are randomly and deliberately missed during data collection, combined with missing data procedures, can be useful tools when working under greater research constraints. Here, we review how PMDD can be incorporated into existing experimental designs by discussing alternative design approaches and demonstrate with simulated data sets how missing data procedures work with incomplete data. PMDDs can provide researchers with a unique toolkit that can be applied during the experimental design stage. Planning and thinking about missing data early can (1) reduce research costs by allowing for the collection of less expensive measurement variables; (2) provide opportunities to distinguish predictions from alternative hypotheses by allowing more measurement variables to be collected; and (3) minimize distress caused by experimentation by reducing the reliance on invasive procedures or allowing data to be collected on fewer subjects (or less often on a given subject). PMDDs and missing data methods can even provide statistical benefits under certain situations by improving statistical power relative to a complete case design. The impacts of unplanned missing data, which can cause biases in parameter estimates and their uncertainty, can also be ameliorated using missing data procedures. PMDDs are still in their infancy. We discuss some of the difficulties in their implementation and provide tentative solutions. While PMDDs may not always be the best option, missing data procedures are becoming more sophisticated and more easily implemented and it is likely that PMDDs will be effective tools for a wide range of experimental designs, data types and problems in ecology and evolution.

The aim of this study was to find out whether or not study was to find out whether using the learning cell method in teaching narrative text was effective or not to improve the students’ reading comprehension achievement of the tenth-grade students of Karya Ibu Senior High School of Palembang. Thi study applied pre-experiment method. The population of this study was all of the tenth grade students of Karya Ibu Senior High School of Palembang, in the Academic Year 2020/2021 with total number 120 students and 30 students were taken as sampl. In collecting the data, a written test of narrative texts was used, and the data were analyzed by using KR-21 The result of this study showed the students’ mean score in the post-test and pre-test of the test, the matched ttest calculation showed that the value of t-obtained was 21.12. The value of t-table was 1.699. It could be concluded that the value of t-obtained (21.12) was higher than the value of t-table. Then the null hypothesis (Ho) was rejected and the alternative hypothesis (Ha) was accepted. It means that teaching narrative texts through Learning Cell method to promote the students’ reading comprehension achivement of the tenth grade students of Karya Ibu of Palembang was effective. Keywords: Teaching, Narrative Text, Learning Cell method.

El presente estudio tuvo como objetivo determinar la relación entre los factores socioeconómicos y la recaudación del impuesto predial de las municipalidades de una provincia en Perú y determinar el análisis de componente principal por factores socioeconómicos y recaudación del impuesto predial. La investigación fue de tipo aplicada y diseño no experimental, de alcance exploratorio correlacional. La técnica utilizada fue la encuesta y el instrumento fue el cuestionario a una muestra de 152 contribuyentes de la provincia; el muestreo fue no probabilístico por conveniencia. El resultado nos indica que existe una correlación positiva considerable de 0,751 y un nivel de significancia de 0,000. Frente a este p-valor menor que 0,05 se rechaza la hipótesis nula y se acepta la hipótesis alterna, del análisis factorial multivariado de componentes principales, variable factores socioeconómicos, componente 1, consideran que contribuyen con el desarrollo de su distrito (0.853), componente 2, consideran que se promueve iniciativas para recaudar impuestos (0.796), variable recaudación del impuesto predial, componente 1, consideran que han sido notificados por incumplimiento (0.865), componente 2, consideran que conocen las formas de pago de impuestos (0.747). Se concluye que existe una relación significativa entre los factores socioeconómicos y la recaudación del Impuesto predial en las municipalidades, es decir si el nivel socioeconómico es alto, la recaudación del Impuesto predial también mejora, además del análisis de componentes principales se determinó dos componentes por variable.