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PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies, This study traces the consumption of animal-source foods (ASF) during a period of rapid economic change and food system transformation in Myanmar. We use data from two nationally representative consumption surveys conducted in 2010 and 2015 and food composition tables to estimate the contributions of ASF to estimated average requirements (EARs) of key nutrients among population subgroups differentiated by geography and economic status. We find: (1) Little change in the average quantity of ASF consumed per individual, but substantial changes in the composition of the ASF consumed. (2) Increasing rural–urban and income-linked inequality in quantities of ASF and associated nutrients consumed. (3) Declines in the adequacy of intakes of five out of eight micronutrients (calcium, iron, zinc, thiamine, vitamin B12) and small increases in two (selenium and vitamin A), due to the changing composition of ASF; most importantly, reductions in the supply of diverse aquatic foods from capture fisheries and increasing availability of intensively reared chicken. (4) Elevated levels of ASF-derived total fat and sodium consumption among better-off consumers, suggesting an emerging triple burden of malnutrition. We review the implications of these results for food security, nutrition-sensitive policies and interventions beyond Myanmar.

The contribution of seafood to global food security is being increasingly highlighted in policy. However, the extent to which such claims are supported in the current food security literature is unclear. This review assesses the extent to which seafood is represented in the recent food security literature, both individually and from a food systems perspective, in combination with terrestrially-based production systems. The results demonstrate that seafood remains under-researched compared to the role of terrestrial animal and plant production in food security. Furthermore, seafood and terrestrial production remain siloed, with very few papers addressing the combined contribution or relations between terrestrial and aquatic systems. We conclude that far more attention is needed to the specific and relative role of seafood in global food security and call for the integration of seafood in a wider interdisciplinary approach to global food system research.

PR, IFPRI3; CRP2; Global Futures and Strategic Foresight; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply, EPTD; PIM, CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences of different scales of the epidemic on pork prices and on the prices of other food types and animal feeds. The models project global pork prices increasing by 17–85% and unmet demand driving price increases of other meats. This price rise reduces the quantity of pork demanded but also spurs production in other parts of the world, and imports make up half the Chinese losses. Demand for, and prices of, food types such as beef and poultry rise, while prices for maize and soybean used in feed decline. There is a slight decline in average per capita calorie availability in China, indicating the importance of assuring the dietary needs of low-income populations. Outside China, projections for calorie availability are mixed, reflecting the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever epidemic on food and feed markets.

Our understanding of food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been hampered by limitations in the temporal and spatial representativeness of data. Food balance sheets provide scalable estimates of per capita food availability, but fail to represent food access, stability and their causal linkages. In contrast, rural household surveys represent detailed conditions for one or multiple points in time, but are influenced by survey timing and are often limited in geographical coverage. This study draws on a large sample of rural land-holding households in SSA (n = 6,353) to identify household level food access deficiencies and to understand the associations with rural livelihoods and food sourcing behavior throughout the year. Food access deficiencies were identified using food security of access and diet diversity indicators. Dietary diversity and channel of access (farm or purchased) were enumerated for the “flush” and “lean” periods and food security of access was enumerated for the lean period only - making the results of this study independent of survey timing. As many as 39% of households were classified as severely food insecure (in terms of food access) and as many as 49% of households were likely to be deficient in micronutrients in the lean period. Vulnerability to food insecurity and micronutrient deficiencies differed by household composition, agricultural livelihood characteristics and agro-ecological zone. Dairy, fruit and vitamin A-rich produce were predominantly accessed through the farm channel. Households with a livestock component to their farm had a lower prevalence of severe food insecurity and higher diet diversity scores. These findings have implications for the development of nutrition-sensitive and nutrition-specific interventions. Interventions need to be tailored to agro-ecological zone, household composition, scale of operation and production mix. Increasing income will not necessarily result in improved diet diversity or healthy dietary

PR, IFPRI3; CRP2; Global Futures and Strategic Foresight; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; CRP7, EPTD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS); CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Current diets are detrimental to both human and planetary health and shifting towards more balanced, predominantly plant-based diets is seen as crucial to improving both. Low fruit and vegetable consumption is itself a major nutritional problem. We aim to better quantify the gap between future fruit and vegetable supply and recommended consumption levels by exploring the interactions between supply and demand in more than 150 countries from 1961 to 2050.