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Understanding how evolution and phenotypic plasticity contribute to variation in heat tolerance is crucial to predicting responses to warming. Here, we analyze 272 thermal death time curves of 53 fish species acclimated to different temperatures and quantify their relative contributions. Analyses show that evolution and plasticity account, respectively, for 80.5% and 12.4% of the variation in elevation across curves, whereas their slope remained invariant. Evolutionary and plastic adaptive responses differ in magnitude, with heat tolerance increasing to 0.54 °C between species and 0.32 °C within species for every 1 °C increase in environmental temperatures. After successfully predicting critical temperatures under ramping conditions to validate these estimates, we show that fish populations can only partly ameliorate the impact of warming waters via thermal acclimation, and this deficit in plasticity could increase as the warming accelerates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting how rising temperatures will impact different species and communities is imperative and increasingly urgent with ongoing global warming. Here, we describe how thermal–death time curves obtained in the laboratory can be combined with an envelope model to predict the mortality of freshwater fish under field conditions and their distribution limits. We analyze the heat tolerance and distribution of 22 fish species distributed across North America and demonstrate that high temperatures imposed a distribution boundary for 11 of them, employing a null model. Importantly, predicted thermal boundaries closely match the warmest suitable locality of the envelope model. Simulated warming suggests that the distribution of fish species with lower heat tolerances will be disproportionately affected by rising temperatures, and the rate of local extinctions will be higher across fish communities in warmer localities. Ultimately, our analyses illustrate how physiological information can be combined with distribution models to forecast how warming temperatures are expected to impact different species and ecological communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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