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Early degradation prediction of lithium-ion batteries is crucial for ensuring safety and preventing unexpected failure in manufacturing and diagnostic processes. Long-term capacity trajectory predictions can fail due to cumulative errors and noise. To address this issue, this study proposes a data-centric method that uses early single-cycle data to predict the capacity degradation trajectory of lithium-ion cells. The method involves predicting a few knots at specific retention levels using a deep learning-based model and interpolating them to reconstruct the trajectory. Two approaches are used to identify the retention levels of two to four knots: uniformly dividing the retention up to the end of life and finding optimal locations using Bayesian optimization. The proposed model is validated with experimental data from 169 cells using five-fold cross-validation. The results show that mean absolute percentage errors in trajectory prediction are less than 1.60% for all cases of knots. By predicting only the cycle numbers of at least two knots based on early single-cycle charge and discharge data, the model can directly estimate the overall capacity degradation trajectory. Further experiments suggest using three-cycle input data to achieve robust and efficient predictions, even in the presence of noise. The method is then applied to predict various shapes of capacity degradation patterns using additional experimental data from 82 cells. The study demonstrates that collecting only the cycle information of a few knots during model training and a few early cycle data points for predictions is sufficient for predicting capacity degradation. This can help establish appropriate warranties or replacement cycles in battery manufacturing and diagnosis processes.

This paper proposes a fully unsupervised methodology for the reliable extraction of latent variables representing the characteristics of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data using information maximizing generative adversarial networks. Meaningful representations can be obtained from EIS data even when measured with direct current and without relaxation, which are difficult to express when using circuit models. The extracted latent variables were investigated as capacity degradation progressed and were used to estimate the discharge capacity of the batteries by employing Gaussian process regression. The proposed method was validated under various conditions of EIS data during charging and discharging. The results indicate that the proposed model provides more robust capacity estimations than the direct capacity estimations obtained from EIS. We demonstrate that the latent variables extracted from the EIS data measured with direct current and without relaxation reliably represent the degradation characteristics of LIBs.

We propose a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling method based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for stochastic representations in uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis. Firstly, POD provides an optimally ordered basis from a set of selected full-order snapshots. Truncating this optimal basis, we construct a reduced-order model with undetermined coefficients. Then, PCE is utilized to approximate the coefficients of the truncated basis. In the proposed method, we construct a PCE using a non-intrusive regression-based method. Combined with the model reduction ability of POD, the proposed method efficiently provides stochastic representations in UQ analysis. To investigate the performance of the proposed method, we provide three numerical examples, i.e., a highly nonlinear analytical function with three uncertain parameters, two-dimensional (2D) heat-driven cavity flow with a stochastic boundary temperature, and 2D heat diffusion with stochastic conductivity. The results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly reduces the computational costs and storage requirements that arise due to high-dimensional physical and random spaces. While demonstrating a similar accuracy with that of the classical full-PCE in predicting statistical quantities. Furthermore, the proposed method reasonably predict the outputs of the full order model using only a few snapshots., Comment: 30 pages, 15 figures, research paper