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We introduce a new approach to estimating long-term aggregate discount rates using the cross section of earnings and book values to explain current stock prices and extract expected market returns. The proposed discount rate measure is countercyclical. Shocks to it account for nearly half of historical market return variation; in contrast, shocks to other discount rate measures account for no more than 2%. It dominates other measures in explaining time-series variation in returns on duration-sorted portfolios and delivers out-of-sample predictability that exceeds that afforded by other expected return measures and predictive variables. It also performs well in international equity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The price of a safe asset reflects not only the expected discounted future cash flows but also future service flows, since retrading allows partial insurance of idiosyncratic risk in an incomplete markets setting. This lowers the issuers' interest burden. As idiosyncratic risk rises during recessions, so does the value of the service flows bestowing the safe asset with a negative β. The resulting exorbitant privilege resolves government debt valuation puzzles and allows the government to run a permanent (primary) deficit without ever paying back its debt, but the government faces a debt Laffer curve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we show that industry volatility concentration is a strong predictor for aggregate stock market returns. Our monthly industry volatility concentration (IVC) index displays significant predictive ability, with in‐sample and out‐of‐sample R2 statistics of 0.686% and 0.712%, respectively, which outperforms a host of prevailing return predictors. Moreover, the IVC index can generate high utility gains of 143.8 basis points above the historical average benchmark for mean–variance investors. We find that the IVC index is countercyclical. Furthermore, the predictive source of the IVC index not only stems from the cash flow and discount rate channels but is also explained by the channels of investor attention and sentiment. The predictive ability of our IVC index also remains significant under a broad range of robustness tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Labuan Bajo is being the focus of infrastructure development by the Indonesian government which is one of the super priority tourism destinations. In general, tourist destinations in Labuan Bajo are synonymous with Komodo National Park. This is the background for the developer to invest in the construction of resort X in Labuan Bajo. It is hoped that the resort X area can become an attraction for tourists in Labuan Bajo. In this study, a financial feasibility analysis was carried out to find out whether or not the investment to be made was feasible. The methods used are discounted cash flow (DCF) and Monte Carlo. The X resort construction project is built on an area of 113,396 m2 and is planned to build 263 units of shop houses and 1 unit of 4-star hotels as well as supporting buildings such as back of house (BOH) buildings, public toilets, floating libraries, arrival pavilions. The results of the analysis using the DCF method show a positive NPV value of Rp 87,895,000,000 and an IRR value of 17.66% greater than the Minimum Attractive Rate of Return (MARR) value of 10%, so that the project can be declared feasible to be implemented, as well as the Monte Carlo method which shows a positive NPV value of Rp 35,423,000,000 and an IRR value of 12.82% greater than the MARR value. Therefore, based on the results of the analysis of these two methods, the resort X project in Labuan Bajo can be declared feasible to be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated non-instantaneous deteriorating items because not all products deteriorate immediately. In the high-tech product life cycle, the product demand increases linearly substantially in the growth stage and maintains a near-constant level in the maturity stage. This is a ramp-type demand rate. To satisfy the demand as shortages occur, partial backlogging is necessary. The advance-cash-credit payment scheme, comprising advance, cash, and credit payments, has gained popularity in business transactions to improve cash flow flexibility among supply chain participants. This study explored a partial backlogging inventory model with ramp-type demand for non-instantaneous deteriorating items under generalized payment. The proposed model also incorporated discounted cash flow analysis to account for the time value of the profit function. This study attempted to determine the optimal replenishment strategy to maximize the present value of the total profit. Finally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine the efficacy of the proposed model and gain managerial insights. The optimal total profit rises with an increase in the permissible delay period and sale price but decreases with an increase in ordering and purchase costs. Then, the decision-maker can refer to the managerial insights to choose the appropriate parameter value for the operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investment in the mining sector carries a high risk, so a comprehensive financial evaluation is required to ensure project feasibility. This study assesses the financial feasibility of gold mining investment in Pit A, PT XYZ, for the period 2025 to 2036. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of the project through the analysis of key financial indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PBP) using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. The DCF method was chosen due to its ability to project future cash flows and incorporate them into a comprehensive assessment of the potential benefits and risks of the project. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted to see the effect of changes in important variables such as revenue, cost of goods sold (COGS), and capital expenditure (capex) on the financial results of the project. The results show that the project is financially viable, with a positive NPV of US$404.16 million, an IRR of 52.10%, and a PBP of 3.32 years, all of which indicate a strong return on investment. Further sensitivity analysis shows that the project remains robust under various scenarios of changes in key variables. This study contributes to the investment evaluation literature in the mining sector by offering a more integrated approach to addressing investment uncertainty and risk through the combined use of the DCF method and sensitivity analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "Journal of Economic Perspectives" article provides recommendations for further reading, including a review of the "Inequality: IFS Deaton Review" project, a study on changing labor market and income inequalities, and an analysis of purchasing power parity measures. It also covers topics such as industrial policy, economic history, construction costs, and interviews with prominent economists. The article offers insights into various economic issues and research areas, making it a valuable resource for those interested in economics and related fields. [Extracted from the article]

Pit A in the Samba Mine Operation has significant coal reserves, approximately 20 million metric tons, based on Life of Mine (LOM) data. However, current conditions show that actual fuel consumption constantly exceeds the set limit, which is problematic as fuel is one of the largest operating costs in the mining industry. To address this, this study aims to evaluate the financial feasibility of using a new coal transportation equipment, Loadpro, which has a lower capacity and fuel consumption than the current equipment. The research method used is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with Incremental Cost analysis to assess financial feasibility. The results showed that the use of Loadpro resulted in positive financial parameters, namely NPV of Rp. 1.1 billion, Profitability Index (PI) of 1.24, IRR of 23%, and Payback Period of 2.02 years. Sensitivity analysis shows that coal production is the factor that most affects the fluctuation of NPV. Through scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, the worst case scenario resulted in an NPV of -Rp. 781.7 million, while the best case scenario gave an NPV of Rp. 2.2 billion, with an 11% probability that the NPV < 0. The implication of this study is that the use of new equipment can significantly improve operational cost efficiency at Samba Mine Operation, although there remains a risk in coal production that must be managed properly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research examines the coal transportation system at Site Port S, a PT BCX coal mining concession. The site serves as a transit terminal for coal hauled from Site B using trucks, where the coal is dumped via two inloading conveyors. Currently, the daily haul truck capacity is 50,000 tons, while the conveyors handle 54,000 tons daily. However, when one of the conveyors is under maintenance or experiencing technical issues, production opportunities are lost, jeopardizing the achievement of future coal production targets, especially as peak production is expected over the next three years. To address this, the research aims to assess the feasibility of building a new inloading conveyor to serve as a backup system. The research uses capital expenditure (CAPEX) calculations, including previous inloading conveyor costs and inflation rates, as well as operating expenses (OPEX) and cost per ton to operate the plant. A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis was conducted to determine the net present value (NPV) of building or renting a new conveyor unit. With a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.9%, the NPV results show a positive $4.8 million for building a new unit, compared to a negative $22.3 million for renting. The results indicate that building a new conveyor unit is significantly more profitable than renting. Additionally, owning the unit provides flexibility, as it could potentially be used at other sites in the future. The findings have important implications for optimizing coal transportation systems and ensuring long-term production efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measles and rubella micro-array patches (MR-MAPs) are a promising innovation to address limitations of the current needle and syringe (N&S) presentation due to their single-dose presentation, ease of use, and improved thermostability. To direct and accelerate further research and interventions, an initial full value vaccine assessment (iFVVA) was initiated prior to MR-MAPs entering phase I trials to quantify their value and identify key data gaps and challenges. The iFVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews and surveys, and quantitative data analyses to (i) assess global need for improved MR vaccines and how MR-MAPs could address MR problem statements; (ii) estimate costs and benefits of MR-MAPs; (iii) identify the best pathway from development to delivery; and (iv) identify outstanding areas of need where stakeholder intervention can be helpful. These analyses found that if MR-MAPs are broadly deployed, they can potentially reach an additional 80 million children compared to the N&S presentation between 2030–2040. MR-MAPs can avert up to 37 million measles cases, 400,000 measles deaths, and 26 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). MR-MAPs with the most optimal product characteristics of low price, controlled temperature chain (CTC) properties, and small cold chain volumes were shown to be cost saving for routine immunization (RI) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to N&S. Uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage impact the potential cost-effectiveness of introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs, indicating that it could be cost-effective in 16–81% of LMICs. Furthermore, this iFVVA highlighted the importance of upfront donor investment in manufacturing set-up and clinical studies and the critical influence of an appropriate price to ensure country and manufacturer financial sustainability. To ensure that MR-MAPs achieve the greatest public health benefit, MAP developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, and policy- and decision-makers will need close collaboration and open communications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This research should help determine whether development should focus on individual firms or will raising the national development level act like a rising tide and raise the performance of all corporations. Design/methodology/approach – The comparative data used in this study come from 150 Australian (ASX200 index listed) firms and 150 Sri Lankan (Colombo Stock Exchange listed) firms. The research questions are answered via a quantitative research design that uses primary and secondary data. Findings – The findings demonstrate that capital budgeting practices are more influenced by contingency features and sophistication in Australia and Sri Lanka. Also, Australian firms tend to use capital budget models with good-to-strong predictive power (except for ROE) and Sri Lankan firms tend to use capital-budget models with fair-to-poor predictive power. Further, the analysis of Australian firms yielded much stronger and more statistically significant results than the analysis of Sri Lankan firms. Practical implications – In complex real-world situations, reconciling the outputs of a multifaceted approach to capital budgeting methods is more likely to give the depth and width of input needed to achieve an optimal capital investment plan. Originality/value – The results of this study can provide rich information for stakeholders about new findings in capital budgeting (CB) practices and their contributions to firm performance in a comparative perspective.

We decompose the total value loss around firms' announcements of financial restatements into components arising from investors' revisions in cash flows and discount rates. First, relative to population benchmarks, restatements represent circumstances in which the cash flow component becomes more important in explaining valuations. While we find significant contributions from both sources, with the cash flow component explaining more than 33% of the variation in stock returns surrounding restatement announcements, this component explains only 13% to 22% in comparable non-restating firms. When restatements are caused by underlying financial fraud, the discount rate impact becomes more important, explaining about 88% of return variation. On the contrary, the cash flow impact is relatively larger for firms with higher earnings persistence or restatements associated with errors. Our decomposition of the value loss helps explain returns in the post-announcement period. Firms with a higher relative discount rate impact experience a significant downward stock price drift after the initial announcement-related price decline. For firms with a higher relative cash flow impact, the evidence suggests the initial impact of the restatement announcement is more complete with no subsequent drift pattern. Our findings close gaps in the evidence on financial restatements and extend the literature on the drivers of stock price movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time variation in the discount rate affects investment and employment decisions in a manner consistent with Q -theory predictions. This evidence is uncovered when using cyclical consumption as a proxy for the discount rate. The results, which are consistent across both U.S. and international data, suggest that firms respond rationally to variations in the cost of capital and that the discount rate has a substantial impact on macroeconomic dynamics and hence business cycle fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pit Z at the Binungan site contains substantial coal reserves, estimated at around 10.77 million metric tons based on Life of Mine (LOM) data. The current issue involves the breakdown of the crusher unit at the crushing station during the processing of Pit Z coal. Further investigation revealed that the damage was caused by the Hardgrove Grindability Index (HGI) of Pit Z coal (29-36), which is lower than the crusher unit's specification (HGI ≥ 40). The HGI measures coal's resistance to crushing; the lower the HGI value, the harder the coal is to crush. This study aims to evaluate the financial feasibility of constructing a New Crushing Station, utilizing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with incremental cost analysis. The construction of a new crushing station yields the following financial parameters: NPV of Rp. 60.236 billion, Profitability Index (PI) of 2.69, IRR of 61.65%, Payback Period of 1.63 years, and Discounted Payback Period of 1.81 years. Sensitivity analysis indicates that coal production is the most sensitive parameter affecting NPV, with a ±20% change in this parameter resulting in a ±33.69% fluctuation in NPV. Additionally, Scenario Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulations reveal that the worst-case scenario produces an NPV of Rp. 54.581 billion, the best-case scenario an NPV of Rp. 64.498 billion, with a 0% probability of NPV < 0, and a 47.28% probability of NPV exceeding the Base Case. This study suggests that constructing a new crushing station is financially viable with manageable risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global coal market experienced three turbulent years, with a sharp decline in demand during the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by a rebound in demand post-Covid and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In 2022, global coal demand reached an all-time high of 8,415 million metric tons, driven by growth in China and India, and continued to rise slightly by 1.4% to 8,536 Mt in 2023. The downward trend in coal prices poses challenges for mining companies, including PT Berau Coal Site Binungan Mine Operation (BMO). This study aims to address the frequent breakdowns of the CR12 crusher at BMO, which result in increased maintenance costs, production downtime, and reduced overall efficiency. Using Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) calculations and the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, the Net Present Value (NPV) of several secondary crusher brands--Joy (existing), MMD, and Shumar--were compared. Results show that Joy has an NPV of -$5,822,030, MMD has an NPV of -$4,527,456, and Shumar has an NPV of -$2,559,450. The negative NPV indicates total costs, where a smaller NPV is preferable. Incremental calculations show that MMD has an NPV of $1,294,575, and Shumar has an NPV of $3,262,581. Based on this analysis, Shumar was selected as the replacement for the CR12 crusher due to its low NPV and cost efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pit J is a new pit at Binungan 8 that will be developed to the west in 2024 and has a mine life of 9 years. The initial plan was to develop Pit J, which produced around 23 million tons of coal. However, there is a second alternative that can increase Pit J production to 28 million tons. Therefore, a project investment analysis of these two alternatives was conducted to determine which mining scheme to take and which is more profitable. This research uses a method of conducting investment valuation of the Pit J mine project, namely discounted cash flow (DCF). A deterministic approach using DCF was first conducted to determine the value of economic feasibility parameters, including net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback period. This was followed by the identification of variables that most affect the NPV value through sensitivity analysis. Based on the research, both mining alternatives were declared financially feasible through the discounted cash flow method, with the first alternative having an NPV of 65.8 million USD, IRR of 60%, and a payback period of 4.77 years, while the second alternative resulted in an NPV of 88.4 million USD, IRR of 65%, and payback period 4.55 years. Sensitivity analysis shows that the variable change in Coal price is the most sensitive variable to the valuation of Pit J. Therefore, the second alternative is chosen as the best alternative to run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming at the deficiencies presented by the traditional methods of highway project investment evaluation, the proposed highway investment evaluation method was based on system dynamics. First, we constructed an evaluation index system from profitability, solvency, and risk resistance and clarified the positive and negative causality within the investment evaluation system of highway projects; second, we determined the boundaries of the system dynamics model and divided it into six sub-systems, namely, income, cash flow, investment evaluation, profit, cost, investment and financing, and liabilities; and then, we established the system dynamics model of highway investment evaluation based on the sub-systems. The model made up for the limitations of the traditional discounted cash flow method; finally, taking the China's Yunnan Province an Expressway project as an example, using VENSIM software simulation, we get the evaluation results of the system dynamics model and make a comparative analysis with the discounted cash flow method, which showed that the calculation inaccuracies of the NPV and other financial indicators were in a reasonable range, and the evaluation method had strong operability and practicability. The system dynamics investment evaluation model provided a systematic, intuitive, whole-process investment evaluation method, which provided a theoretical basis for the analysis and decision-making of the investment effect of highway projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dealing with risk and addressing risk consequences constitute indispensable and specific elements of every business activity. The aim of this paper has been to assess the level of risk connected with the process of exploitation of hard coal deposits used for the production of coke in Poland, that is why a methodology has been developed which takes into account the impact of significant risk factors resulting from both geological and mining conditions upon unit cost of coal mining. This methodology constitutes a comprehensive approach to sustainable management of hard coal resources. The key source of information pertaining to exploitation risk factors is the digital geological model of hard coal deposit which has been developed. It comprises a structural model as well as a quality model of the basic quality parameters of coal. Structural models and coal quality models have been developed on the basis of litho-stratigraphic profiles from geological exploratory boreholes and underground observations (boreholes drilled from underground workings and their profiling). The structural grid model also contains information on tectonic disturbances (faults) or sedimentation disturbances (intercalations, wash-outs, and the like). The digital model was used as the basis for devising time schedules of development and preparatory works, as well as coal extraction proper. Historical results of mining and economic data from 81 longwalls mined in the years 2016–2022 have been used for the purpose of analysis of the impact of risk factors on unit operating costs. The analysis comprised a total of 23 criteria which influence the costs of mining. From that group, 10 risk factors have been selected by means of statistical analysis using segmented regression, these factors have been utilized to make an assessment of the forecast concerning risk factor level for zones of the deposit meant for mining until the year 2035. The risk factors taken into account were those which are due to natural hazards, geological structure of the deposit (coal seam) and technical limitations. Risk factor (RF) indicator has been developed, for its construction the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) has been used. The value of RF, which expresses the aggregated form of variability concerning individual factors pertaining to geology and mining, has been used to determine the adjusted own risk assessment when estimating the economic efficiency of the coking coal deposit for 8 exploitation zones with the use of discounted cash flow method. The assessed average value of RF for the entire deposit amounted to 0.29. The lowest level of RF was noted in case of zone W (RF = 0.17), whereas the highest value of risk occurs in zone PN (RF = 0.64). The values of RF were used to calculate the rate of discount as consolidated measure of own risk, when assessing investment projects in mining. For zone W with the lowest risk of mining the discount rate amounts to 8.34%, whereas in case of zone PN which has the highest risk level, it amounts to 15.02%. Assessing the level of mining risk provides the possibility to optimize the cost of mining, and may be utilized for making decisions concerning the sequence and time of mining from particular zones of the deposit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The primary purpose of this Practice Briefing is to examine the implications of the recommendations of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Review of Investment Valuations to shift towards (explicit) discounted cash flow (DCF) valuations on valuers, clients, risk management and market data. Design/methodology/approach: This Practice Briefing will develop a conceptual framework to articulate the impact of the shift towards explicit modelling assumptions in valuations. A comparative analysis is conducted to contrast traditional valuation approaches with an explicit DCF approach. Findings: The proposed shift to DCF valuations in the real estate industry carries both subtle and profound implications. While on the surface, the move appears to bring minimal change since current valuations are already DCF-based, a deeper exploration reveals a potential transformation to the understanding, analysis and measurement of pricing and risks in commercial real estate. Practical implications: The traditional techniques adopted in valuations have become pervasive in the industry, hindering more sophisticated modelling and analysis of individual assets and portfolios. Explicitly modelling assumptions in both the initial years of cash flow and perpetuity calculations would unveil fundamental relationships and rationales that have previously been buried within, and perhaps ignored by, an All Risks Yield (ARY). Originality/value: This briefing identifies the cause of confusion when interpreting ARY differentials on implied target returns and risk and demonstrates how a change to explicit assumptions, such as growth and letting periods, would enhance transparency, enabling more informed client–valuer discussions, which in-turn will boost confidence in valuation accuracy, lead to more sophisticated asset modelling, market data, forecasting and market analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation driven by the urgent need to mitigate climate change, increased regulatory pressures, and rising stakeholder expectations. This study aims to explore the impact of ESG integration on the financial performance of Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE), a subsidiary of PT Pertamina (Persero), which plays an important role in the energy transition in Indonesia. This study uses secondary data from financial statements, prospectuses, annual reports, and information from the PGE website. In addition, historical data on the stock prices of power generation companies and comparative analysis of the industry are used. The analysis was carried out using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to calculate the intrinsic value of the company, as well as an assessment of sustainability policies, community engagement programs, and improvement of corporate governance. The results show that ESG integration has a positive impact on PGE's sales growth, profitability, and return on investment. Improved sustainability policies, community engagement programs, and corporate governance contribute significantly to better financial performance. The integration of ESG principles in PGE not only improves financial performance but also shows that sustainability and profitability can go hand in hand. These findings provide valuable insights for the broader energy sector, suggesting that ESG integration can drive positive change and facilitate an era where financial growth and environmental responsibility complement each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poplar has gained popularity among farmers of Punjab, Haryana, Western Uttar Pradesh, and the foothills of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh due to their fast growth rate and suitability for industrial uses such as pulp and timber production. Integrating poplar trees into agroforestry systems optimizes land resources and economic gains, as successful techniques have been developed to coordinate crop timing and arrangements effectively. Integrating poplar trees with agricultural crops provides additional income streams for farmers and contributes to soil conservation, biodiversity enhancement, and other environmental benefits. Farmers in these regions typically employ effective spacing of 5 m×4 m for block plantation and 1 m×3 m for row plantation. In the present study, a systematic literature review encompassing 137 English-language journal articles was conducted to assess the economic benefits of Poplar using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, considering short-rotation poplar (SRC) and very short-rotation poplar (vSRC) plantations alongside annual crops. The findings revealed that increasing canopy density led to a decline in crop yields by 37%, 70%, and 99% at canopy densities of 30%, 60%, and 90%, respectively, from early spring to harvest. Cost-benefit analysis in Saharanpur district, India, indicated average annual net returns of USD 346.36 for Poplar-based agrisilviculture, while monoculture yielded USD 140.73 per annum. Furthermore, economic analysis in Yamunanagar and Haridwar districts showed benefit-cost ratios ranging from 2.35 to 3.7. Additionally, Poplar block and boundary plantations were found to sequester significantly more carbon in long-lived biomass, serving as substitutes for fossil fuels (5.45 and 1.84 t ha–1 yr–1) in poplar-based systems with block and boundary plantations. The study suggested expanding spacing between tree rows may mitigate resource competition between plantations and crops. The study inferred that Poplar-based agroforestry may play a crucial role in climate mitigation programs by effectively sequestering atmospheric carbon and offering fuel, fodder, timber, and wood products, thereby alleviating pressure on existing natural forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose an industry volatility spillover index and find that this new predictor has an impressive in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of aggregate stock returns. A one-standard-deviation increase in this index leads to a 4.14% increase in the expected excess return over the next month. Furthermore, a mean-variance investor can realize sizable economic gains by using this spillover index in his/her asset allocation. The forecasting power of the spillover index remains significant after controlling for popular economic variables and newly proposed predictors. Due to the absence of learning, the spillover index shows increasing predictive ability over the recent period. The economic origins of the spillover index's success stem from both the cash flow and discount rate channels, as well as significant association with investor sentiment and tail risk. The return predictability of this index is pervasive across characteristic-sorted portfolios and is particularly strong for large-cap or difficult-to-value stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Barriers can be an effective method for reducing escapement of reservoir sport fish; however, whether the financial benefits of a barrier outweigh the costs of a barrier is unknown. We sought to quantify the costs and benefits associated with constructing barriers to reduce fish escapement while explicitly accounting for variability and uncertainty. Methods: We developed a framework using simulation modeling and discounted cash flow techniques to quantify the costs and benefits of barrier construction on Brushy Creek Lake, Iowa, where a barrier was constructed in 2020 to reduce escapement of stocked Walleye Sander vitreus and Muskellunge Esox masquinongy. We then incorporated this framework into an interactive Shiny application to enable cost–benefit evaluations across a wide range of barrier types, system types, species, and escapement rates. Result: The present value of the parallel‐bar barrier on Brushy Creek Lake, Iowa, over 10 years was US$69,576 (range = $64,484–$73,976), whereas the present value of escaped fish was $316,416 ($253,459–$378,823), indicating a net benefit of $246,840 ($188,975–$304,847) associated with barrier construction. The benefit–cost ratio of barrier construction was 4.55 after 10 years, indicating that for every $1 in present value spent on barrier construction, we saved $4.55 by preventing fish escapement. There was a 99% probability of a positive mean net benefit of the barrier after 3 years. Conclusion: Our results indicate that barriers can be a cost‐effective option to minimize fish escapement, and barrier costs are more predictable compared with the cost of escapement. Quantifying the value of escaped fish and barrier construction on an economic scale enables the use of formal decision‐making tools to address complicated and multifaceted issues associated with reservoir fisheries management. Impact statementWe developed a framework to enable the costs and benefits of barrier construction to minimize reservoir sport fish escapement to be quantified on an economic scale and subsequently applied this framework to a barrier construction project in Iowa. We then integrated this framework into a flexible application to enable the costs and benefits of barrier construction to be assessed across a variety of systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In decision analysis, expected utility of discounted cash flows is the traditional approach to incorporate risk aversion into the evaluation of a project. The choice of discount rate as well as the convergence with the beta-adjusted approach from finance have always been in question. To address this gap, we adopt a risk-sharing setup in which investors have both treasuries and the stock market as alternatives to the project. For a full utility analysis of all the investor's capital, we provide a unique discount rate that allows setting the horizon at the termination of the project. For a traditional analyst who conducts expected utility of discounted cash flows and ignores the capital not allocated to the project, we recommend an adjusted discount rate that compensates for double-counting the systematic risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a wide array of tax credits and other incentives for low-carbon energy. The technology-neutral clean generation production tax credit (PTC) (Section 45Y of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code) and the technology-neutral investment tax credit (ITC) (Section 48E) lower the net cost of new electricity generation projects with zero or negative greenhouse gas emission rates. We evaluate the impact of the IRA legislation--specifically the PTC and ITC--on the cost-competitiveness of small modular reactors (SMRs). We use the Argonne Low-carbon Energy Analysis Framework (A-LEAF) model to calculate the capacity factor of an SMR with a range of hypothetical variable operating and maintenance (O&M) costs in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market. We selected ERCOT for market modeling because of its competitive structure, available data, and extensive use in prior literature. We use a discounted cash flow model to calculate the SMR's net present value based on the market prices and capacity factors from A-LEAF, hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs, and other input parameters, with or without the IRA tax credits. We determine the SMR owner's optimal choice of PTC or ITC for the hypothetical ranges of capital and variable O&M costs. We also evaluate potential shifts in the SMR owner's optimal choice of PTC or ITC based on historical patterns of nuclear capital cost overruns in the United States. We also assess the sensitivity of our results to longer PTC period and electricity prices from the New England market, which tend to be higher than electricity prices in ERCOT. We find that even with the IRA tax credits, only SMRs with low capital and variable O&M costs would be economically feasible in the low-price ERCOT market scenario modeled. A longer PTC period and higher-price market such as New England, however, would significantly expand the economic feasibility of SMRs in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The feasibility of producing biobased Polybutylene adipate terephthalate (PBAT) or 1,4-butanediol (BDO) as a way for diversification of sugar production facilities, was investigated in this study. Two scenarios for biorefineries integrated into an existing sugarcane mill, were investigated: In scenario 1, the feedstock (A-molasses) was diverted to produce three different monomers, i.e., terephthalic acid (TPA), adipic acid (AA) and 1,4-butanediol (BDO) in stoichiometric ratios required for PBAT production. Scenario 2 investigated using all the feedstock to produce BDO as a final product, based on substantial market potential. The processes were simulated in Aspen Plus® to obtain mass and energy balances for equipment sizing and costing. Then a discounted cash flow method was used to calculate the internal rate of return (IRR). The results indicated that scenario 1 had higher energy usage (47.3 MJ/kg of PBAT) compared to scenario 2 (42.1 MJ/kg of BDO) as PBAT synthesis required TPA and AA monomers, produced in energy-intensive processes. Scenario 2 with an IRR of 34.4% had a better economic performance than Scenario 1 with 19.1% IRR, partly due to Scenario 1 having smaller production scales for monomers, suffering the negative effects of economies-of-scale. Although both scenarios were profitable, the sensitivity analysis indicated that Scenario 1 would remain profitable with either a 30% increase in total capital investment or a 30% decrease in operation time, while Scenario 2 would become unprofitable. The study has demonstrated that bio-based PBAT can be produced from molasses in a manner that is cost-competitive with current fossil-based market prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problems with Discounted Cash Flows (RCPSPDC) focuses on maximizing the net present value by summing the discounted cash flows of project activities. An extension of this problem is the Payment at Event Occurrences (PEO) scheme, where the client makes multiple payments to the contractor upon completion of predefined activities, with additional final settlement at project completion. Numerous approximation methods such as metaheuristics have been proposed to solve this NP-hard problem. However, these methods suffer from parameter control and/or the computational cost of correcting infeasible solutions. Alternatively, approximate dynamic programming (ADP) sequentially generates a schedule based on strategies computed via Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. This saves the computations required for solution corrections, but its performance is highly dependent on its strategy. In this study, we propose the hybridization of ADP with three different metaheuristics to take advantage of their combined strengths, resulting in six different models. The Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) were used to recommend policies for ADP. A Discrete cCuckoo Search (DCS) further improved the schedules generated by ADP. Our experimental analysis performed on the j30, j60, and j90 datasets of PSPLIB has shown that ADP–DCS is better than ADP alone. Implementing the EDA and ACO as prioritization strategies for Monte Carlo simulations greatly improved the solutions with high statistical significance. In addition, models with the EDA showed better performance than those with ACO and random priority, especially when the number of events increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To date, despite the existence of the sustainability goals of the 2030 Agenda and the need for an energy transition, the results set is still quite far away from being achieved. The awareness of this situation moves many European countries to promote policies based on the use of renewable sources. This paper is aimed at illustrating the Italian legislative context, evaluating the effectiveness of the introduced incentives, according to parameters that affect the productivity of a photovoltaic system. It is also aimed at helping to bridge the gap linked to the relationship between incentives and energy transition, also with regard to renewables. The research focuses on an evaluation methodology, based on technical and economic standards and it is accompanied by a case-study. In order to analyze the productivity of the photovoltaic system, all the main input factors that could affect the technical and economic performance of the system were investigated. In particular, solar potential analysis, shading elements, installation place, azimuth, tilt of modules and technology. For the economic valuations, the discounted cash flow method was used. The results obtained show that some Italian regions, particularly those in the north, should prefer other forms of renewables, such as hydroelectric and geothermal, and that the FER1 decree is not suitable for the promotion of solar photovoltaics in some areas. The research shows also that policies on renewables should be calibrated according to the intrinsic features of the place where they are located and have to be related to the built heritage they will interface, in the light of technological and plant system aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Around 65% of the mitigation needed for the targeted net-zero carbon aviation emissions in 2050 is expected to come from Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs). In this study, an alternative gasification-driven Biomass-to-Liquid (BtL) concept for the production of SAFs is introduced and evaluated. In particular, a fuel synthesis scheme based on the double-stage fermentation of the produced syngas (syngas → acetic acid → TAGs) is assessed instead of the conventional Fischer-Tropsch (FT) or Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) synthesis. The objective of the present work is the techno-economic evaluation of a large-scale (200 MWth) replication of the mentioned BtL concept, whose performance has been simulated in Aspen PlusTM (V.11) with reasonable upscaling considerations and models validated at a pilot scale. The estimated baseline Total Capital Investment (TCI) of €577 million lies in the typical range of €500–700 million that many recent techno-economic studies adopt for gasification-driven BtL plants of similar capacity, while the estimated annual operating costs of €50 million correspond to a 15–40% OpEx reduction compared to such plants. A discounted cash flow analysis was carried out, and a baseline Minimum Jet Selling Price (MJSP) equal to 1.83 €/L was calculated, while a range of 1.38–2.27 €/L emerged from the sensitivity analysis. This study sets the biological conversion of gasification-derived syngas into triglycerides (TAGs) as a promising alternative route for the production of SAFs. In general, gasification-driven BtL pathways, led by the relatively mature FT and AtJ technologies, are capable of thriving in the coming years based on their capability of advanced feedstock flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global blueberry production more than doubled during the last decade. In Mexico, the production of this fruit has grown faster than globally, positioning this country among the top five international blueberry-producing regions. This case study focuses on a prospective investor planning to grow blueberries in Mexico and export most production to the U.S., the largest producer and consumer of fresh blueberries. A high-technology producer growing blueberries under high tunnels in western Mexico is featured in this article. The case study was researched using a combination of field visits to blueberry producers, collaborative work with an industry consultant, and academic research. The article provides industry statistics on blueberries in Mexico and globally over the last decade. In addition, it describes how the authors conceptualized and developed discounted cash flow models to evaluate this potential investment. Despite the importance of blueberries from Mexico, there is a need for financial models to assess the profitability and risk of growing blueberries in that country. Students solving this case are expected to identify risks and opportunities in the industry and conduct Porter's five forces competitive analysis. In addition, students will mainly evaluate the results of a stochastic capital budgeting model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real estate developers typically assess potential projects using feasibility analyses and industry-standard heuristics, which include capital costs, return on costs, and a subjective risk measure. This study explores real estate developers' decision-making practices in selecting hurdle rates and common feasibility analysis techniques, surveying 225 Australian and New Zealand developers. The main findings are that most developers use specific 'go/no-go' hurdle rate mechanisms irrespective of primary real estate type, with the majority using margin on development cost (MDC) or internal rate of return (IRR); the boundaries between traditional speculative development and real estate investment through the use of securitization methods have become blurred; many developers use both quantitative metrics, with qualitative methods and specific structural checks to manage the risks involved; and the two most frequent methods of determining site value prior to acquisition are the residual land value and discounted cash flow methods. Most place a heavy reliance on industry-accepted heuristics and do not have a predetermined process and method for altering or adapting the chosen hurdle rates and benchmarks. This research provides a contribution to property development practice from the Antipodean perspective which until now has been more focused on the UK view, enabling more generalized application internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent international arbitration cases, especially P&ID v Nigeria , have highlighted how easy it is for claimants—whether in treaty-based Investor–State Dispute Settlement or commercial arbitration—to advance immense claims grounded on essentially no evidence against state respondents. This largely reflects the readiness of many quantum experts to engage in the practice which Martin Wachs called 'lying with numbers' in order to misrepresent the execution risks of speculative unbuilt projects in a manner that is radically at odds with empirical data regarding such execution risks, which is exacerbated by the ignorance of many arbitrators about business economics and discounted cash flow valuation. This situation is unlikely to improve, and overall standards of candour in valuation in international arbitration will keep going down as the system will keep rewarding the act of cloaking advocacy in the guise of scientific or technical rationality in order to 'lie with numbers'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In hillside watersheds, forests play a crucial role in protecting against soil erosion. Not only does forest vegetation cover serve as a biological measure to prevent soil erosion, it also generates income through sustainable management practices. However, there is a scarcity of research that evaluates and compares the profitability of perennial woody crops with that of other agricultural crops by integrating biological aspects within an economic analytical framework in Central Madagascar. In this study, we address this gap by combining a biological growth model that captures complex forest dynamics with economic management data to utilize the discounted cash flow method. We applied this approach to evaluate and compare the profitability of forest management and agricultural crop production in the hillside watershed areas of Central Madagascar, which have experienced severe humaninduced soil erosion. Although our results showed that timber production is a profitable option, other agricultural crops generate much higher profits, indicating that financial subsidies alone may not be enough to shift land use toward perennial woody crops. In addition, growing fruit trees such as oranges and mangoes appears to be a much more financially attractive option for local farmers than annual agricultural crop production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The subject of the study is ESG factors (Environment, Social, Government) and their inclusion in the value of Russian companies. The purpose of the paper is to reveal the theoretical and methodological aspects of taking into account ESG factors when assessing the value of companies. The relevance of the study is determined by the influence of the ESG rating of companies on changes in their value. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a general scheme, which includes four stages: substantiation of key external and internal factors influencing ESG-assessments of the company’s value; analysis of the nature of the impact of key factors on ESG assessments; assessment of the impact of the ESG-factor on the elements of value creation (forecast period, discount factor, cash flows, post-forecast growth rates); building a financial model for assessing the value of companies taking into account ESG factors. Methods: general scientific methods (comparative analysis, generalization, formalization) and empirical (observation, comparison, modeling). The DCF (discounted cash flow) approach was proposed as the main method for assessing the value of a company, which allows not only to estimate the value of a company over a specific period of time, but also acts as a cost management tool. An analysis of scientific and theoretical points of view and methodological approaches to assessing the influence of ESG factors on the value of companies was carried out, significant factors influencing the ESG assessment of the company’s value were identified, and a financial model for assessing the value of the company taking into account ESG factors was proposed. The model for assessing the impact of ESG on cash flow generation elements was tested using the example of PJSC Polymetal. It is concluded that the ESG assessment of a company’s value is influenced by both external factors (international regulation, country specifics, industry specifics) and internal ones (specifics of the capital structure, specifics of production). The developed financial model for assessing the value of a company makes it possible to take into account ESG factors in the output forms of reporting: balance sheet, profit and loss statement, cash flow statement. The proposed model is addressed to top managers of the company for the purpose of using it in the process of assessing the degree of influence of ESG factors on the cost of equity capital, potential investors and appraisers.

Measles and rubella micro-array patches (MR-MAPs) are a promising innovation to address limitations of the current needle and syringe (N&S) presentation due to their single-dose presentation, ease of use, and improved thermostability. To direct and accelerate further research and interventions, an initial full value vaccine assessment (iFVVA) was initiated prior to MR-MAPs entering phase I trials to quantify their value and identify key data gaps and challenges. The iFVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews and surveys, and quantitative data analyses to (i) assess global need for improved MR vaccines and how MR-MAPs could address MR problem statements; (ii) estimate costs and benefits of MR-MAPs; (iii) identify the best pathway from development to delivery; and (iv) identify outstanding areas of need where stakeholder intervention can be helpful. These analyses found that if MR-MAPs are broadly deployed, they can potentially reach an additional 80 million children compared to the N&S presentation between 2030–2040. MR-MAPs can avert up to 37 million measles cases, 400,000 measles deaths, and 26 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). MR-MAPs with the most optimal product characteristics of low price, controlled temperature chain (CTC) properties, and small cold chain volumes were shown to be cost saving for routine immunization (RI) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to N&S. Uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage impact the potential cost-effectiveness of introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs, indicating that it could be cost-effective in 16–81% of LMICs. Furthermore, this iFVVA highlighted the importance of upfront donor investment in manufacturing set-up and clinical studies and the critical influence of an appropriate price to ensure country and manufacturer financial sustainability. To ensure that MR-MAPs achieve the greatest public health benefit, MAP developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, and policy- and decision-makers will need close collaboration and open communications.

In this paper, we develop two complete discounted-cash flow (DCF) frameworks for the valuation of constant-growth annuities and perpetuities. By 'complete' we mean that these frameworks allow the valuation of a firm or project by means of different DCF methods, particularly, the equity method, the free-cash-flow (FCF) method, the adjusted-present-value-method, and the capital-cash-flow method. This also requires the derivation of formulas that allow the translation between different required returns, like the required return on unlevered and levered equity, the discount rate in the FCF method, and the required return on the tax-shield. Our paper departs from the two most advocated and mutually exclusive frameworks when dealing with DCF. The first is based on Modigliani and Miller (M&M), where the FCF at different points in time are independently distributed. The second framework rests on the analysis of Miles and Ezzell (M&E) who presume a first-order autoregressive cash-flow process. Some elements of a 'complete' framework exist in the literature, but in our opinion, a complete picture has not been developed yet. The contributions of this paper are the following: (1) We develop (or expand) the set of formulas that are required for the valuation of constant-growth annuities and perpetuities; (2) The formulas we develop in this paper are based on a backward-iteration process, which in itself represents a suitable tool for firm valuation; (3) Using a numerical example, we show that the two mutually exclusive frameworks of M&M or M&E achieve very different valuation results; (4) It turns out that the expected returns and the growth rate of the FCF are partly linked, but this relationship is different in the two frameworks; (5) In our numerical examples, we show how the constant-growth annuity or perpetuity, can be integrated with an explicitly planned FCF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several life contingency agreements are based on the assumption that policyholders have impaired life expectancy attributable to factors, such as lifestyle, social class, or preexisting health issues. Quantifying two crucial variables, augmented death probabilities and the discount rate of projected cash flows, is essential for pricing such agreements. Information regarding the correct values of these parameters is subject to vagueness and imprecision, which further intensifies if impairments must be considered. This study proposes modelling mortality and interest rates using a generalization of fuzzy numbers (FNs), known as intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs). Consequently, this paper extends the literature on life contingency pricing with fuzzy parameters, where uncertainty in variables, such as interest rates and death probabilities, is modelled using FNs. While FNs introduce epistemic uncertainty, the use of IFNs adds bipolarity to the analysis by incorporating both positive and negative information regarding actuarial variables. Our analysis focuses on two agreements involving policyholders with impaired life expectancies: determining the annuity payment in a substandard annuity and pricing a life settlement over a whole life insurance policy. In particular, we emphasize modelling interest rates and survival probabilities using triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (TIFNs) owing to their ease of interpretation and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]