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The following article analyzes why an extension of the core-peripheral model is necessary for realistic economic use. The starting point is the core-peripheral model from Krugman. Various modifications are then made to make the Krugman model more robust, growth-oriented, and realistic. The models by Ricardian, Heckscher-Ohlin, Krugman, and Solow are combined by the author. This new model provides a general explanation model that is advantageous for the most diverse analyses that is, from rigid to dynamic, and growth theory-oriented model frameworks. The Ricardian model provides an immobile factor of work, perfect competition, distribution-free productions, comparative cost advantages, and constant economies of scale. The Heckscher-Ohlin theorem provides a second mobile input factor capital and production functions according to the equipment of the regions. The core-peripheral model provides aspects of monopolistic competition, cost functions, transportation costs, and spatial distribution. Depreciation rates, investment rates, and savings rates are taken over from the Solow model. We define the following parameters in the new model variant: reasons for model expansion, input factors, technology components, transportation costs, investment rate, savings rate, outputs, number of business/distribution, cost functions, consumer benefits, goods prices, wages, returns, and incomes., peer-reviewed

Purpose: To specify a Variable Elasticity of Substitution function (VES), in which the estimated Elasticity of Substitution (ES) can give some implications for the tendency of economic growth in the Vietnames manufacturing sector. Design/Methodology/Approach: The contribution and the relevant methodology is based on the Bayesian approach having some advantages over the frequentist method: (i) the simulation and prediction results are more reliable in Bayesian analysis due to combining prior knowledge about parameters with obverved data to compose a posterior model, whereas the frequentist approach is based only on available data; (ii) in probability sense, Bayesian credible intervals have a straightforward interpretation compared to frequentist confidence intervals. The Bayesian nonlinear regresion performed is suitable for fitting production functions and depicting economic growth. Findings: The specified VES function has the ES greater than one and this finding contradicts many previous empirical studies in the growth theory. This result points to the possibility of unbounded endogenous growth in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector. Practical implications: Based on the empirical results, in order to realize the possibility of endogenous growth for the studied Vietnamese manufacturing sector, policies of enforcing investment are needed. To raise the level of science and technique, as well as human capital of the Vietnamese enterprises, at the same time, there is great necessity to encourage R&D activities in both the private and public sectors. Originality/Value: Although this study organically builds upon recent studies about the link between the VES, the elasticity of factor subsitution and economic growth, its results proved that the VES is more appropriate than the Cobb-Douglas and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) to explain economic growth in the view of capital-labor relationship., peer-reviewed

This article considers the application of econometric calculations by the method of statistical dependence equations to analyze the relationships between various factors and the performance indicator. It is noted that the use of econometric calculations should be based on knowledge and understanding of the essence of economic processes and phenomena, the specifics of economic interrelations and the laws of their development. The study presents the methodology by using statistical dependence equations and calculating the factor stability coefficients based on the actual development indicators of the livestock sector in the Akmola region over several years., peer-reviewed

Currently, the need for the real-time evaluation of the functioning effectiveness of the subjects of the Russian Federation is observed. To achieve this goal, the situation centers,able to perform the monitoring of the socio-economic indicators both at the federal and regional levels, are created in Russia.At the same time, it is necessary to implement the information-analytical system to make forecasts for the following periods, as well as to conduct a plan-fact analysis based on the available data, using various methods. In the framework of this study, the situation center of federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “Plekhanov Russian University of Economics” (FSBEI HE "Plekhanov RUE") is considered.The development of the information-analytical system based on a hybrid forecasting model,integrated with the software of the center under consideration, is proposed by the authors.The examples of the calculations and the estimation of their accuracy and quality, obtained with the prototype of the system under development, are presented., peer-reviewed

PH.D., Fiscal rules aimed at instilling discipline to remove policy bias have in many cases failed at engendering fiscal sustainability. This is evident from the experiences of a number of countries within the European Union and elsewhere, over the past decade, culminating in what has been termed as the sovereign debt crisis. This policy failure coincides with notable lacunae in economic literature in providing an objective definition of ‘fiscal sustainability’ and a clear understanding of its determinants, particularly within the context of the functions of fiscal policy and the role played by economic fundamentals. This lack of conceptual framework results in assessments of fiscal sustainability which are often unduly biased towards the aggregate demand management perspective and reliant on targets and benchmarks with an insufficient basis for justification. To address these gaps, this thesis develops a model which embeds the net worth approach towards assessing fiscal financial performance within a Neo-Classical economic growth model. This enables an assessment of fiscal policy sustainability and optimality from the longer-term perspective of the allocative function of government intervention. The net worth component in the model provides the accounting relationships for the determination of fiscal sustainability through budget constraints. The economic growth model element enables the modelling of the allocation function of government within the context of an economic optimisation framework. Fiscal sustainability is on this basis defined in terms of the existence of a steady state equilibrium and of the growth dynamics enabling convergence towards it. The steady state dynamics of the model are studied through the use of phase diagrams, where the distinctions between ‘high and low productivity’ economies as well as economies featuring ‘structural surpluses or deficits’ are key factors for the assessment of fiscal sustainability. The dynamics of the economic model are presented for selected European economies, showing that results for sustainability are strongly determined by economic fundamentals. This leads to differences in the steady state values for assets, debt and consumption across countries, with consequent variations in the existence and values associated with sustainable positions. A key message derived from this work is that a sustainable debt-to-GDP ratio depends on a number of variables including ingrained government expenditure elements, productivity of assets, interest rates, depreciation of productive assets as well as the rate of time preference. This implies that a narrow focus on the deficit and debt ratios can provide a misguided assessment of fiscal sustainability. Furthermore, the sustainable debt ratio, if it exists, is not a static parameter but varies between countries and over time. Given the difference in the values of the exogenous parameters used in the model, it is also evident that there is no reason to assume that the application of any one target value which is independent of economic fundamentals can be justifiable, sustainable or optimal. The thesis also argues that the current fiscal governance structure adopted by the EU needs to be considered in light of the two extreme forms of superior fiscal governance, namely complete harmonisation and country-level optimisation. Through an extension of the conclusions derived from the economic model, a conceptual cost-benefit approach is presented, pitting the benefits obtained from lower interest rates against the cost of debt and asset reduction for a country forfeiting individual optimisation to participate in policy harmonisation. The analysis is extended through a case study approach, chiefly to assess points of convergence and differences in individual country assessments undertaken in the thesis as compared with Debt Sustainability Analyses carried out by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, and to identify the added value in the nature of results derived through the model as developed in this thesis. The conclusions confirm the importance of focusing on economic fundamentals, the relationship between medium term growth and the fiscal balance, and the level of productive assets needed to achieve steady state debt in order to derive rational conclusions regarding the sustainability of a country’s fiscal position. This indicates a potential need for reconsideration of the methodological approach used in mainstream Debt Sustainability Analyses. In conclusion, this thesis highlights the need for a subject as important as fiscal sustainability and the related policy implications to be firmly grounded in a rational, consistent and comprehensive theoretical framework rather than viewed through subjective and limited approaches. It is furthermore argued that the integration of a stock-flow accounting model within an economic growth modelling context founded on optimisation is a conceptual approach that can be usefully applied to other strands of economic research which focus on sustainability in general and on issues concerning the allocation function of fiscal policy in particular., N/A

The study proposes forecast scenarios for the development of world prices for natural gas based on economic and mathematical modeling and the analysis of the historical trend of extraction, consumption, export and import of natural gas.The main research method is correlation-regression analysis which allowed establishing how strong the correlation of world prices for natural gas and world oil prices is. Also, the methods of historical trend and mathematical analysis were used to determine the main forecast scenarios for price levels of natural gas.The study represents a new approach to the analysis of the dynamics of world prices for natural gas based on economic and mathematical modeling.The article examines the dynamics of the global natural gas market and analyzes trends in price changes, as well as establishes the relationship between global prices for natural gas and the world oil market for making forecasts of the cost of natural gas., peer-reviewed