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Prediction categories in the Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) experiments change with the need to address specific problems in structure modeling. In CASP15, four new prediction categories were introduced: RNA structure, ligand-protein complexes, accuracy of oligomeric structures and their interfaces, and ensembles of alternative conformations. This paper lists technical specifications for these categories and describes their integration in the CASP data management system.

Driven by the development and upscaling of fast genome sequencing and assembly pipelines, the number of protein-coding sequences deposited in public protein sequence databases is increasing exponentially. Recently, the dramatic success of deep learning-based approaches applied to protein structure prediction has done the same for protein structures. We are now entering a new era in protein sequence and structure annotation, with hundreds of millions of predicted protein structures made available through the AlphaFold database. These models cover most of the catalogued natural proteins, including those difficult to annotate for function or putative biological role based on standard, homology-based approaches. In this work, we quantified how much of such “dark matter” of the natural protein universe was structurally illuminated by AlphaFold2 and modelled this diversity as an interactive sequence similarity network that can be navigated athttps://uniprot3d.org/atlas/AFDB90v4. In the process, we discovered multiple novel protein families by searching for novelties from sequence, structure, and semantic perspectives. We added a number of them to Pfam, and experimentally demonstrate that one of these belongs to a novel superfamily of translation-targeting toxin-antitoxin systems, TumE-TumA. This work highlights the role of large-scale, evolution-driven protein comparison efforts in combination with structural similarities, genomic context conservation, and deep-learning based function prediction tools for the identification of novel protein families, aiding not only annotation and classification efforts but also the curation and prioritisation of target proteins for experimental characterisation.

Language models are now routinely used for text classification and generative tasks. Recently, the same architectures were applied to protein sequences, unlocking powerful tools in the bioinformatics field. Protein language models (pLMs) generate high dimensional embeddings on a per-residue level and encode the “semantic meaning” of each individual amino acid in the context of the full protein sequence. Multiple works use these representations as a starting point for downstream learning tasks and, more recently, for identifying distant homologous relationships between proteins. In this work, we introduce a new method that generates embedding-based protein sequence alignments (EBA), and show how these capture structural similarities even in the twilight zone, outperforming both classical sequence-based scores and other approaches based on protein language models. The method shows excellent accuracy despite the absence of training and parameter optimization. We expect that the association of pLMs and alignment methods will soon rise in popularity, helping the detection of relationships between proteins in the twilight-zone.

Methods to reliably estimate the accuracy of 3D models of proteins are both a fundamental part of most protein folding pipelines and important for reliable identification of the best models when multiple pipelines are used. Here, we describe the progress made from CASP12 to CASP13 in the field of estimation of model accuracy (EMA) as seen from the progress of the most successful methods in CASP13. We show small but clear progress, that is, several methods perform better than the best methods from CASP12 when tested on CASP13 EMA targets. Some progress is driven by applying deep learning and residue-residue contacts to model accuracy prediction. We show that the best EMA methods select better models than the best servers in CASP13, but that there exists a great potential to improve this further. Also, according to the evaluation criteria based on local similarities, such as lDDT and CAD, it is now clear that single model accuracy methods perform relatively better than consensus-based methods.

Computational methods for protein structure modelling are routinely used to complement experimental structure determination, thus they help to address a broad spectrum of scientific questions in biomedical research. The most accurate methods today are based on homology modelling, i.e. detecting a homologue to the desired target sequence that can be used as a template for modelling. Here we present a versatile open source homology modelling toolbox as foundation for flexible and computationally efficient modelling workflows. ProMod3 is a fully scriptable software platform that can perform all steps required to generate a protein model by homology. Its modular design aims at fast prototyping of novel algorithms and implementing flexible modelling pipelines. Common modelling tasks, such as loop modelling, sidechain modelling or generating a full protein model by homology, are provided as production ready pipelines, forming the starting point for own developments and enhancements. ProMod3 is the central software component of the widely used SWISS-MODEL web-server., Author summary Knowledge of a protein’s structure permits key insights in its molecular function and supports scientists in the design of targeted and efficient experiments. However, experimental structure determination is a limiting factor and, as a consequence, the number of entries in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) is orders of magnitude lower than the number of known protein sequences. Computational modelling methods can be used to bridge this gap by complementing experimental structure determination. In particular, homology modelling (aka comparative or template-based modelling) approaches which interpolate structural information from homologous structures can provide protein models of sufficiently high accuracy to guide structure based research. In this manuscript we describe ProMod3 which is a modular software package targeted at modelling protein structures by homology. ProMod3 empowers the widely used SWISS-MODEL webserver and already served millions of protein structure models to the scientific community.

Critical blind assessment of structure prediction techniques is crucial for the scientific community to establish the state of the art, identify bottlenecks, and guide future developments. In Critical Assessment of Techniques in Structure Prediction (CASP), human experts assess the performance of participating methods in relation to the difficulty of the prediction task in a biennial experiment on approximately 100 targets. Yet, the development of automated computational modeling methods requires more frequent evaluation cycles and larger sets of data. The "Continuous Automated Model EvaluatiOn (CAMEO)" platform complements CASP by conducting fully automated blind prediction evaluations based on the weekly pre-release of sequences of those structures, which are going to be published in the next release of the Protein Data Bank (PDB). Each week, CAMEO publishes benchmarking results for predictions corresponding to a set of about 20 targets collected during a 4-day prediction window. CAMEO benchmarking data are generated consistently for all methods at the same point in time, enabling developers to cross-validate their method's performance, and referring to their results in publications. Many successful participants of CASP have used CAMEO-either by directly benchmarking their methods within the system or by comparing their own performance to CAMEO reference data. CAMEO offers a variety of scores reflecting different aspects of structure modeling, for example, binding site accuracy, homo-oligomer interface quality, or accuracy of local model confidence estimates. By introducing the "bestSingleTemplate" method based on structure superpositions as a reference for the accuracy of 3D modeling predictions, CAMEO facilitates objective comparison of techniques and fosters the development of advanced methods.

Proteins are subject to evolutionary forces that shape their three-dimensional structure to meet specific functional demands. The knowledge of the structure of a protein is therefore instrumental to gain information about the molecular basis of its function. However, experimental structure determination is inherently time consuming and expensive, making it impossible to follow the explosion of sequence data deriving from genome-scale projects. As a consequence, computational structural modeling techniques have received much attention and established themselves as a valuable complement to experimental structural biology efforts. Among these, comparative modeling remains the method of choice to model the three-dimensional structure of a protein when homology to a protein of known structure can be detected.The general strategy consists of using experimentally determined structures of proteins as templates for the generation of three-dimensional models of related family members (targets) of which the structure is unknown. This chapter provides a description of the individual steps needed to obtain a comparative model using SWISS-MODEL, one of the most widely used automated servers for protein structure homology modeling.

Every second year, the community experiment "Critical Assessment of Techniques for Structure Prediction" (CASP) is conducting an independent blind assessment of structure prediction methods, providing a framework for comparing the performance of different approaches and discussing the latest developments in the field. Yet, developers of automated computational modeling methods clearly benefit from more frequent evaluations based on larger sets of data. The "Continuous Automated Model EvaluatiOn (CAMEO)" platform complements the CASP experiment by conducting fully automated blind prediction assessments based on the weekly pre-release of sequences of those structures, which are going to be published in the next release of the PDB Protein Data Bank. CAMEO publishes weekly benchmarking results based on models collected during a 4-day prediction window, on average assessing ca. 100 targets during a time frame of 5 weeks. CAMEO benchmarking data is generated consistently for all participating methods at the same point in time, enabling developers to benchmark and cross-validate their method's performance, and directly refer to the benchmarking results in publications. In order to facilitate server development and promote shorter release cycles, CAMEO sends weekly email with submission statistics and low performance warnings. Many participants of CASP have successfully employed CAMEO when preparing their methods for upcoming community experiments. CAMEO offers a variety of scores to allow benchmarking diverse aspects of structure prediction methods. By introducing new scoring schemes, CAMEO facilitates new development in areas of active research, for example, modeling quaternary structure, complexes, or ligand binding sites.