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Background: Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers., Aim: To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care., Design and Setting: Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months., Method: Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT., Results: From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The 'predictAL-10' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the 'predictAL-9'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9., Conclusion: The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking., (© British Journal of General Practice 2017.)

Background: There is limited evidence for a moderating role of both serotonin transporter (SERT) and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) genes on the risk for major depression (MD) developing after childhood maltreatment. However, research on this topic remains inconclusive, and there is a lack of data from longitudinal studies with large and representative population samples. Our study aimed to clarify whether, in the presence of previous childhood maltreatment, individuals carrying low functional alleles for both SERT 5-HTTLPR and BDNF Val66Met polymorphisms had a higher risk for MD., Methods: We explored 2- and 3-way gene (SERT and BDNF) × environment (childhood maltreatment) interactions in a large sample of Spanish adults who were followed up over a 3-year period and assessed in person for both DSM-IV MD and exposure to childhood maltreatment., Results: Our study included 2679 participants. Those with both the 5-HTTLPR s allele and the BDNF Met allele showed the highest risk of MD if they had previously experienced emotional (z = 2.08, p = 0.037), sexual (z = 2.19, p = 0.029) or any kind of childhood abuse (z = 2.37, p = 0.018). These 3-way interactions remained significant regardless of whether the 5-HTTLPR triallelic or the 5-HTTLPR biallelic polymorphisms were included in the analyses., Limitations: Retrospective assessment of childhood maltreatment may have resulted in a moderate degree of recall bias., Conclusion: Our results confirm that the risk of depression conferred by childhood maltreatment is modified by variation at both SERT and BDNF genes.