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BackgroundFuture distribution of dengue risk is usually predicted based on predicted climate changes using general circulation models (GCMs). However, it is difficult to validate the GCM results and assess the uncertainty of the predictions. The observed changes in climate may be very different from the GCM results. We aim to utilize trends in observed climate dynamics to predict future risks of Aedes albopictus in China.MethodsWe collected Ae. albopictus surveillance data and observed climate records from 80 meteorological stations from 1970 to 2021. We analyzed the trends in climate change in China and made predictions on future climate for the years 2050 and 2080 based on trend analyses. We analyzed the relationship between climatic variables and the prevalence of Ae. albopictus in different months/seasons. We built a classification tree model (based on the average of 999 runs of classification and regression tree analyses) to predict the monthly/seasonal Ae. albopictus distribution based on the average climate from 1970 to 2000 and assessed the contributions of different climatic variables to the Ae. albopictus distribution. Using these models, we projected the future distributions of Ae. albopictus for 2050 and 2080.ResultsThe study included Ae. albopictus surveillance from 259 sites in China found that winter to early spring (November-February) temperatures were strongly correlated with Ae. albopictus prevalence (prediction accuracy ranges 93.0-98.8%)-the higher the temperature the higher the prevalence, while precipitation in summer (June-September) was important predictor for Ae. albopictus prevalence. The machine learning tree models predicted the current prevalence of Ae. albopictus with high levels of agreement (accuracy > 90% and Kappa agreement > 80% for all 12 months). Overall, winter temperature contributed the most to Ae. albopictus distribution, followed by summer precipitation. An increase in temperature was observed from 1970 to 2021 in most places in China, and annual change rates varied substantially from -0.22 ºC/year to 0.58 ºC/year among sites, with the largest increase in temperature occurring from February to April (an annual increase of 1.4-4.7 ºC in monthly mean, 0.6-4.0 ºC in monthly minimum, and 1.3-4.3 ºC in monthly maximum temperature) and the smallest in November and December. Temperature increases were lower in the tropics/subtropics (1.5-2.3 ºC from February-April) compared to the high-latitude areas (2.6-4.6 ºC from February-April). The projected temperatures in 2050 and 2080 by this study were approximately 1-1.5 °C higher than those projected by GCMs. The estimated current Ae. albopictus risk distribution had a northern boundary of north-central China and the southern edge of northeastern China, with a risk period of June-September. The projected future Ae. albopictus risks in 2050 and 2080 cover nearly all of China, with an expanded risk period of April-October. The current at-risk population was estimated to be 960 million and the future at-risk population was projected to be 1.2 billion.ConclusionsThe magnitude of climate change in China is likely to surpass GCM predictions. Future dengue risks will expand to cover nearly all of China if current climate trends continue.

Abstract: Background. Future distribution of dengue risk is usually predicted based on predicted climate changes using general circulation models (GCMs). However, it is hard to validate the GCM results and assess the uncertainty of the predictions. Observed changes in climate may be very different from GCM results.Methods.We collected Aedes albopictus surveillance data and observed climate records from about 90 meteorological stations for the period 1970–2021. We analyzed the trends of climate change in China and made predictions on future climate for the years 2050 and 2080 based on trend analyses. We analyzed the relationship between climatic variables and the prevalence of Ae. albopictusin different months/seasons. We built a series of machine learning classification tree models to predict the monthly/seasonal Ae. albopictus distribution based on the average climate from 1970 to 2000 and assessed the contributions of different climatic variables to the Ae. albopictus distribution. Using these models, we projected the future distributions of Ae. albopictus for the years of 2050 and 2080.Results. The study included Ae. albopictus surveillance from 259 sites in China and found that winter to early spring (November–February) temperatures were strongly correlated with Ae. albopictus prevalence – the higher the temperature the higher the prevalence, while precipitation in summer (June–September) was important predictors for Ae. albopictus prevalence. The machine learning tree models predicted the current prevalence of Ae. albopictus with high agreement (accuracy > 90% and Kappa agreement > 80% for all months). Overall, winter temperature contributed the most to Ae. albopictus distribution, followed by summer precipitation. Increase in temperature was observed in most places in China and rates of annual change varied substantially among sites, with the highest increase in temperature occurring from February to April (annual increase of 1.4 – 4.7ºC for monthly mean, 0.6 – 4.0ºC for monthly minimum, and 1.3 – 4.3ºC for monthly maximum temperature) and the lowest in November and December. Temperature increases were lower in the tropics/subtropics compared to the high-latitude areas. The projected temperatures in 2050 and 2080 by this study were about 1~1.5°C higher than projected by GCMs. The estimated current Ae. albopictus risk distribution had a northern boundary of north-central China and the southern edge of northeastern China, with a risk period of June–September. The projected future Ae. albopictus risks in 2050 and 2080 cover nearly all of China, with an expanded risk period of April–October. The current at-risk population was estimated to be 960 million and the future at-risk population was projected to be 1.2 billion.Conclusions.The magnitude of climate change in China is likely to surpass the GCM predictions. Future dengue risks will expand to cover nearly all of China if the current climate trends continue.

In this article, the thermal stability of tert-butyl perbenzoate (TBPB) mixed with different concentrations of toluene and p-tert-butylcatechol (TBC) was investigated. The exothermic onset temperature (T0), the heat of decomposition (ΔH), and the adiabatic temperature rise (ΔTad) of the samples were obtained by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and Phi-TEC II adiabatic calorimetry. The apparent activation energy (Ea) and the maximum reaction rate arrival time under adiabatic conditions were obtained by adiabatic kinetic calculations for 8 h (TD8) and 24 h (TD24). Based on Semenov's theory, the self-accelerated decomposition temperature was calculated as a support for safe storage and transport. The results of DSC and Phi-TEC II showed that toluene was effective in reducing the thermal hazard during the decomposition of TBPB. The addition of TBC caused side reactions. The moderate addition of toluene and TBC improves the thermal stability of TBPB and can improve the safety of TBPB in industrial applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tert-butylperoxy-2-ethylhexanoate (TBEC)—an easily decomposable organic peroxide—is widely used as a polymerization initiator in industrial production. Sodium hydroxide solution and water are common impurities in the polymerization process. In this study, exothermic onset temperature (T0) and heat of decomposition (ΔH) of TBEC with impurities were obtained through differential scanning calorimetry. In addition, maximum pressure (Pmax), maximum temperature (Tmax), and adiabatic temperature rise (ΔTad) were obtained through accelerated rate calorimetry (ARC). Apparent activation energy (Ea) scores for pure TBEC and TBEC mixed with water (TBEC/H2O) and sodium hydroxide (TBEC/NaOH) were calculated. Subsequently, based on experimental data obtained through ARC, the self-accelerating decomposition temperature and temperature at the time to maximum rate under adiabatic conditions were calculated for 24 h (TD24) and 8 h (TD8). The experimental results indicated that H2O negligibly affected T0 but decreased ΔH, Pmax, Tmax, and ΔTad. Moreover, addition of H2O increased the TD24 and TD8 of TBEC. Thus, the thermal hazard of TBEC was reduced by addition of H2O. Addition of NaOH solution increased the complexity of the reaction because the initial decomposition temperature and activation energy were negatively correlated to the content of NaOH in the solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Objectives: Under certain ecological circumstances, pathogens are able to rapidly adapt to new vectors. The great capacity of Plasmodium spp. to adapt to new anopheline mosquito vectors on different continents and the continuous ecological changes attributed to humans might promote their adaptation to culicine vectors, which are known to infect humans. Based on our current knowledge, it is difficult to predict whether such adaptations will occur. This study was aimed to determine the infection susceptibility of Anopheles sinensis, Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Cx. pipiens pallens to Plasmodium vivax in Shandong Province of China., Methods: The susceptibility of the three predominant species of mosquitoes -An. sinensis, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and Cx. pipiens pallens in Shandong Province was compared with a direct membrane feeding assay with 15 batches of Shandong strain mono-infected gametocyte-containing blood collected from Plasmodium vivax-infected patients. Infectivity was measured by dissecting the midguts and salivary glands of the mosquitoes. The presence of oocysts and sporozoites was determined by microscopy at 6 and 22 days post-blood feeding., Results: From the 15 batches of mosquitoes that were fed infected blood, oocysts and sporozoites were detected only in 7th, 13th and 15th batches of infection for An. sinensis, and no oocysts or sporozoites were detected in Cx. tritaeniorhynchus or Cx. pipiens pallens. The positive rate of An. sinensis infection was 21.2, 13 and 36.3% in the three batches of mosquitoes, with an average infection rate of 23.5%., Interpretation & Conclusion: The susceptibility of An. sinensis to P. vivax was very high in Shandong Province. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and Cx. pipiens pallens failed to exhibit susceptibility to P. vivax.

Objective: This study aims to investigate the application value of tumor abnormal protein (TAP) examination in the diagnosis of urothelial carcinoma of the bladder., Method: Abnormal sugar chain glycoproteins in the peripheral blood of 87 patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder were detected, and compared with non-tumor patients accompanied by hematuria., Result: TAP examination showed that the positive rate of the abnormal sugar chain glycoprotein in the peripheral blood of the 87 patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder was 78.16%, whereas that of the non-tumor patients was 10.81%. The former is significantly higher than the latter (P<0.01)., Conclusion: TAP examination can be used to detect urothelial carcinoma of the bladder, and would be helpful in the diagnosis of urothelial carcinoma of the bladder by combining the clinical signs and symptoms.

Background/aim: The present study determined the efficacy of extracts of Astragalus membranaceus (AM) and Curcuma wenyujin (CW), a traditional Chinese medicine herbal mixture, at different tumor stages of an orthotopic nude mouse model of human ovarian cancer expressing red fluorescent protein., Materials and Methods: The tumor-bearing mice were treated with cisplatinum (CDDP), AM, CW, or a combination of AM and CW in each of three tumor stages, using the same regimen. Group 1 received saline as negative control. Group 2 received CDDP i.p. as positive control with a dose of 2 mg/kg, every three days. Group 3 received AM daily via oral gavage, at a dose of 9120 mg/kg. Group 4 received CW daily via oral gavage, at a dose of 4560 mg/kg. Groups 5, 6 and 7 received combinations of AM and CW daily via oral gavage at low (AM, 2280 mg/kg; CW, 1140 mg/kg), medium (AM, 4560 mg/kg; CW 2280 mg/kg), and high (AM, 9120 mg/kg; CW, 4560 mg/kg) doses. The expression of angiogenesis- and apoptosis-related genes in the tumors were analyzed by immunohistochemistry for matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP-2), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF-2), B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2) and cyclooxygenase 2 (Cox-2), and by polymerase chain reaction for MMP-2, FGF-2 and Bcl-2., Results: CDDP, AM, and its combination with CW-induced significant growth inhibition of Stage I tumors. Strong efficacy of the combination of AM and CW at high dose was observed. Monotherapy with CDDP, AM, CW, and the combination treatments did not significantly inhibit Stage II and III tumors. The expression of MMP-2, VEGF, FGF-2, and Cox-2 was significantly reduced in Stage I tumors treated with AM, CW, and their combination, suggesting a possible role of these angiogenesis- and apoptosis-related genes in the observed efficacy of the agents tested., Conclusion: This study is the first report on the efficacy of anticancer agents at different stages of ovarian cancer in an orthotopic mouse model. As the tumor progressed, it became treatment-resistant, similar to the clinical situation, further demonstrating the utility of the model and the need for agents acrtive in advanced-stage ovarian cancer., (Copyright© 2015 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.)