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Agriculture is the main contributor to global water scarcity but not all diets contribute equally. Modifying what, and how much, we eat could reduce the impact of our diets on global water resources.

This report, an output from the UKRI-funded Drought and Water Scarcity Programme, synthesis the insights for the agricultural sector. It considers how drought and water scarcity affect different types of agriculture; whether we can forecast drought and its impacts and how drought and water scarcity impacts on agriculture be reduced?

This report, an output from the UKRI-funded Drought and Water Scarcity Programme, synthesis the insights for the agricultural sector. It considers how drought and water scarcity affect different types of agriculture; whether we can forecast drought and its impacts and how drought and water scarcity impacts on agriculture be reduced?

Summary: oncern about the public health impacts of dietary habits in the UK have led to initiatives to encourage healthier eating, notably in the dietary guidelines represented of the eatwell plate (FSA, 2007) and the Eatwell Guide (NHS, 2016c). A change in UK dietary habits towards healthier eating would result in changes in the type and quantities of food items in the national diet, with implications for agricultural, food and allied industries. More specifically, this could lead to changes in land use and farming practices, both for the UK and its trading partners, with associated effects on greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. In this context, and sponsored by Defra, this study set out using a series of scenarios to assess the environmental impacts of changing dietary habits and specifically the adoption of healthier eating in the UK, and in broad terms some of the likely social and economic impacts on the agricultural and food sector, through a set of hypothetical scenarios. The main objectives were to: i) determine the consumption of food under possible future food consumption scenarios in the UK, including the eatwell plate; ii) quantify the production of agricultural commodities needed to meet the food needs of each scenario; iii) quantify the environmental impacts of food commodity production and consumption by scenarios, and iv) identify, in broad terms, the possible economic and societal impacts of dietary changes. The authors thank Defra for funding and supporting the project and all the stakeholders who participated in the project and helped greatly in shaping and quantifying the dietary change scenarios. The authors also thank others who contributed in other ways, e.g. nutritional advice from Prof Joe Millward of Surrey University.

Increasing demands for water, driven by population growth and socio‐economic development, environmental regulations and future climate uncertainty, are highlighting limitations on water supplies. This water‐energy‐food‐environment nexus is not confined to semi‐arid regions but is emerging as a key business, societal and economic risk in humid and temperate countries, where abundant water supplies and regulation have historically coped with fluctuating demands between industry, power generation, agriculture, domestic supply and the environment. In the UK, irrigation is supplemental to rainfall, consumptive in use and concentrated in the driest years and most resource‐stressed catchments. This paper describes an empirical application of a mixed methods approach to integrate agriculture into a robust decision‐making framework, focusing on a water‐stressed region in England. The approach shows that competing demands between sectors can be reconciled and that potential options or portfolios compatible with multi‐sectoral collaboration and investment can be identified. By combining model outputs to forecast the impacts of climate and socio‐economic change on agricultural demand within a regional water resource simulator, future spatial estimates of demand were derived. A set of search and tracked metrics were used to drive multi‐criteria searches to identify preferred supply and demand management orientated portfolios. The methodological challenges in forecasting agricultural demand, defining acceptable ‘trade‐offs’, managing scale and uncertainty issues and the importance of engendering open dialogue between stakeholders is described. The study provides valuable insights for countries where similar emergent issues regarding conflicts over water demand exist.

Supporting information for paper from Anglian Water funded Water Resources East project

Future changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven major crop types (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) grown in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 41 original publications from an initial screening of 1748 studies. Our approach adopted an established SR procedure developed by the Centre for Evidence Based Conservation constrained by inclusion criteria and defined methods for literature searches, data extraction, meta-analysis and synthesis. Whilst similar studies exist to assess climate impacts on crop yield in Africa and South Asia, surprisingly, no comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Based on the reported results (n = 729) we show that the projected change in average yield in Europe for the seven crops by the 2050s is +8%. For wheat and sugar beet, average yield changes of +14% and +15% are projected, respectively. There were strong regional differences with crop impacts in northern Europe being higher (+14%) and more variable compared to central (+6%) and southern (+5) Europe. Maize is projected to suffer the largest negative mean change in southern Europe (−11%). Evidence of climate impacts on yield was extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato, but very limited for barley, rice and rye. The implications for supporting climate adaptation policy and informing climate impacts crop science research in Europe are discussed.

Globally, the area of sugarcane is rising rapidly in response to growing demands for bioethanol and increased sugar demand for human consumption. Despite considerable diversity in production systems and contexts, sugarcane is a particularly “high impact” crop with significant positive and negative environmental and socio-economic impacts. Our analysis is focused on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which is a critical region for continued expansion, due to its high production potential, low cost of production and proximity, and access, to European markets. Drawing on a systematic review of scientific evidence, combined with information from key informants, stakeholders and a research-industry workshop, we critically assess the impacts of sugarcane development on water, soil and air quality, employment, food security and human health. Our analysis shows that sugarcane production is, in general, neither explicitly good nor bad, sustainable nor unsustainable. The impacts of expansion of sugarcane production on the environment and society depend on the global political economy of sugar, local context, quality of scheme, nature of the production system and farm management. Despite threats from climate change and forthcoming changes in the trade relationship with the European Union, agricultural development policies are driving national and international interest and investment in sugarcane in SSA, with expansion likely to play an important role in sustainable development in the region. Our findings will help guide researchers and policy makers with new insights in understanding the situated environmental and social impacts associated with alternative sugar economy models, production technologies and qualities of management.