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Piia Lavikainen,1,* Gunjan Chandra,2,* Pekka Siirtola,2 Satu Tamminen,2 Anusha T Ihalapathirana,2 Juha Röning,2 Tiina Laatikainen,3– 5 Janne Martikainen1 1School of Pharmacy, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland; 2Biomimetics and Intelligent Systems Group, Faculty of ITEE, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; 3Joint Municipal Authority for North Karelia Social and Health Services (Siun Sote), Joensuu, Finland; 4Department of Public Health and Social Welfare, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland; 5Institute of Public Health and Clinical Nutrition, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Piia Lavikainen, School of Pharmacy C/O Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 1627, Kuopio, FI-70211, Finland, Tel +358 40 7024682, Email piia.lavikainen@uef.fiPurpose: To gain an understanding of the heterogeneous group of type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients, we aimed to identify patients with the homogenous long-term HbA1c trajectories and to predict the trajectory membership for each patient using explainable machine learning methods and different clinical-, treatment-, and socio-economic-related predictors.Patients and Methods: Electronic health records data covering primary and specialized healthcare on 9631 patients having T2D diagnosis were extracted from the North Karelia region, Finland. Six-year HbA1c trajectories were examined with growth mixture models. Linear discriminant analysis and neural networks were applied to predict the trajectory membership individually.Results: Three HbA1c trajectories were distinguished over six years: “stable, adequate” (86.5%), “improving, but inadequate” (7.3%), and “fluctuating, inadequate” (6.2%) glycemic control. Prior glucose levels, duration of T2D, use of insulin only, use of insulin together with some oral antidiabetic medications, and use of only metformin were the most im

Purpose: To gain an understanding of the heterogeneous group of type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients, we aimed to identify patients with the homogenous long-term HbA1c trajectories and to predict the trajectory membership for each patient using explainable machine learning methods and different clinical-, treatment-, and socio-economic-related predictors. Patients and Methods: Electronic health records data covering primary and specialized healthcare on 9631 patients having T2D diagnosis were extracted from the North Karelia region, Finland. Six-year HbA1c trajectories were examined with growth mixture models. Linear discriminant analysis and neural networks were applied to predict the trajectory membership individually. Results: Three HbA1c trajectories were distinguished over six years: “stable, adequate” (86.5%), “improving, but inadequate” (7.3%), and “fluctuating, inadequate” (6.2%) glycemic control. Prior glucose levels, duration of T2D, use of insulin only, use of insulin together with some oral antidiabetic medications, and use of only metformin were the most important predictors for the long-term treatment balance. The prediction model had a balanced accuracy of 85% and a receiving operating characteristic area under the curve of 91%, indicating high performance. Moreover, the results based on SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) values show that it is possible to explain the outcomes of machine learning methods at the population and individual levels. Conclusion: Heterogeneity in long-term glycemic control can be predicted with confidence by utilizing information from previous HbA1c levels, fasting plasma glucose, duration of T2D, and use of antidiabetic medications. In future, the expected development of HbA1c could be predicted based on the patient’s unique risk factors offering a practical tool for clinicians to support treatment planning.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly being used to improve patient care and management. In this paper, we propose explainable AI (XAI) models for predicting severe hypoglycemia (SH) and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) episodes in adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and relapses in adults with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). We follow a three-step process in this study: (1) develop baseline machine learning (ML) models, (2) improve the models using ReliefF feature selection technique, and develop sex-stratified models, (3) explain the models and their results using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). We built six ML models (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, AdaBoost, random forest, and linear regression) for all scenarios. Applying the ReliefF feature selection led to improved model performance in predicting all outcomes compared to the baseline models. Additionally, sex-stratified models further improved the prediction of SH episodes and relapses. The F1 scores for predicting SH episodes in male and female patients were 84.07% and 84.95%, respectively, and the DKA prediction model achieved an F1 score of 78.67%. The proposed relapse prediction models outperformed existing models with F1 scores of 84.55% (males) and 76.11% (females), and ROCs of 70.26% (males) and 69.05% (females). Our results highlight the importance of considering sex differences, socioeconomic factors, and physical and mental health in medical outcome prediction. Boosting ML algorithms were found to be effective in detecting SH and DKA in T1D patients and relapses in RRMS patients compared to conventional tree-based ML and statistical models.