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Background: Patients with severe tricuspid regurgitation (TR) typically present with heterogeneity in the extent of cardiac dysfunction and extra-cardiac comorbidities, which play a decisive role for survival after transcatheter tricuspid valve intervention (TTVI). Objectives: This aim of this study was to create a survival tree-based model to determine the cardiac and extra-cardiac features associated with 2-year survival after TTVI. Methods: The study included 918 patients (derivation set, n = 631; validation set, n = 287) undergoing TTVI for severe TR. Supervised machine learning-derived survival tree-based modelling was applied to preprocedural clinical, laboratory, echocardiographic, and hemodynamic data. Results: Following univariate regression analysis to pre-select candidate variables for 2-year mortality prediction, a survival tree-based model was constructed using 4 key parameters. Three distinct cluster-related risk categories were identified, which differed significantly in survival after TTVI. Patients from the low-risk category (n = 261) were defined by mean pulmonary artery pressure ≤28 mm Hg and N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide ≤2,728 pg/mL, and they exhibited a 2-year survival rate of 85.5%. Patients from the high-risk category (n = 190) were defined by mean pulmonary artery pressure >28 mm Hg, right atrial area >32.5 cm2, and estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤51 mL/min, and they showed a significantly worse 2-year survival of only 52.6% (HR for 2-year mortality: 4.3, P < 0.001). Net re-classification improvement analysis demonstrated that this model was comparable to the TRI-Score and outperformed the EuroScore II in identifying high-risk patients. The prognostic value of risk phenotypes was confirmed by external validation. Conclusions: This simple survival tree-based model effectively stratifies patients with severe TR into distinct risk categories, demonstrating significant differences in 2-year survival after TTVI.

In this contribution, we achieve the primary goal of the active galactic nucleus (AGN) STORM campaign by recovering velocity-delay maps for the prominent broad emission lines (Lyα, C iv, He ii, and Hβ) in the spectrum of NGC 5548. These are the most detailed velocity-delay maps ever obtained for an AGN, providing unprecedented information on the geometry, ionization structure, and kinematics of the broad-line region. Virial envelopes enclosing the emission-line responses show that the reverberating gas is bound to the black hole. A stratified ionization structure is evident. The He ii response inside 5-10 lt-day has a broad single-peaked velocity profile. The Lyα, C iv, and Hβ responses extend from inside 2 to outside 20 lt-day, with double peaks at ±2500 km s-1 in the 10-20 lt-day delay range. An incomplete ellipse in the velocity-delay plane is evident in Hβ. We interpret the maps in terms of a Keplerian disk with a well-defined outer rim at R = 20 lt-day. The far-side response is weaker than that from the near side. The line-center delay days gives the inclination i ≈ 45°. The inferred black hole mass is M BH ≈ 7 × 107 M o˙. In addition to reverberations, the fit residuals confirm that emission-line fluxes are depressed during the "BLR Holiday"identified in previous work. Moreover, a helical "Barber-Pole"pattern, with stripes moving from red to blue across the C iv and Lyα line profiles, suggests azimuthal structure rotating with a 2 yr period that may represent precession or orbital motion of inner-disk structures casting shadows on the emission-line region farther out.

We present geometric and dynamical modeling of the broad line region (BLR) for the multi-wavelength reverberation mapping campaign focused on NGC 5548 in 2014. The data set includes photometric and spectroscopic monitoring in the optical and ultraviolet, covering the Hβ, C iv, and Ly broad emission lines. We find an extended disk-like Hβ BLR with a mixture of near-circular and outflowing gas trajectories, while the C iv and Ly BLRs are much less extended and resemble shell-like structures. There is clear radial structure in the BLR, with C iv and Ly emission arising at smaller radii than the Hβ emission. Using the three lines, we make three independent black hole mass measurements, all of which are consistent. Combining these results gives a joint inference of . We examine the effect of using the V band instead of the UV continuum light curve on the results and find a size difference that is consistent with the measured UV-optical time lag, but the other structural and kinematic parameters remain unchanged, suggesting that the V band is a suitable proxy for the ionizing continuum when exploring the BLR structure and kinematics. Finally, we compare the Hβ results to similar models of data obtained in 2008 when the active galactic nucleus was at a lower luminosity state. We find that the size of the emitting region increased during this time period, but the geometry and black hole mass remained unchanged, which confirms that the BLR kinematics suitably gauge the gravitational field of the central black hole.

We model the ultraviolet spectra of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548 obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope during the 6 month reverberation mapping campaign in 2014. Our model of the emission from NGC 5548 corrects for overlying absorption and deblends the individual emission lines. Using the modeled spectra, we measure the response to continuum variations for the deblended and absorption-corrected individual broad emission lines, the velocity-dependent profiles of Ly and C iv, and the narrow and broad intrinsic absorption features. We find that the time lags for the corrected emission lines are comparable to those for the original data. The velocity-binned lag profiles of Ly and C iv have a double-peaked structure indicative of a truncated Keplerian disk. The narrow absorption lines show a delayed response to continuum variations corresponding to recombination in gas with a density of ∼105 cm-3. The high-ionization narrow absorption lines decorrelate from continuum variations during the same period as the broad emission lines. Analyzing the response of these absorption lines during this period shows that the ionizing flux is diminished in strength relative to the far-ultraviolet continuum. The broad absorption lines associated with the X-ray obscurer decrease in strength during this same time interval. The appearance of X-ray obscuration in ∼2012 corresponds with an increase in the luminosity of NGC 5548 following an extended low state. We suggest that the obscurer is a disk wind triggered by the brightening of NGC 5548 following the decrease in size of the broad-line region during the preceding low-luminosity state.

We present the first results from a reverberation-mapping campaign undertaken during the first half of 2012, with additional data on one active galactic nucleus (AGN) (NGC 3227) from a 2014 campaign. Our main goals are (1) to determine the black hole masses from continuum-Hβ reverberation signatures, and (2) to look for velocity-dependent time delays that might be indicators of the gross kinematics of the broad-line region. We successfully measure Hβ time delays and black hole masses for five AGNs, four of which have previous reverberation mass measurements. The values measured here are in agreement with earlier estimates, though there is some intrinsic scatter beyond the formal measurement errors. We observe velocity-dependent Hβ lags in each case, and find that the patterns have changed in the intervening five years for three AGNs that were also observed in 2007.

We present models of the Hβ-emitting broad-line region (BLR) in seven Seyfert 1 galaxies from the Lick AGN Monitoring Project 2011 sample, drawing inferences on the BLR structure and dynamics as well as the mass of the central supermassive black hole. We find that the BLR is generally a thick disk, viewed close to face-on, with preferential emission back toward the ionizing source. The dynamics in our sample range from near-circular elliptical orbits to inflowing or outflowing trajectories. We measure black hole masses of for PG 1310-108, for Mrk 50, for Mrk 141, for Mrk 279, for Mrk 1511, for NGC 4593, and for Zw 229-015. We use these black hole mass measurements along with cross-correlation time lags and line widths to recover the scale factor f used in traditional reverberation mapping measurements. Combining our results with other studies that use this modeling technique, which brings our sample size to 16, we calculate a scale factor that can be used for measuring black hole masses in other reverberation mapping campaigns. When using the root-mean-square (rms) spectrum and using the line dispersion to measure the line width, we find pred = 0.57 0.19. Finally, we search for correlations between f and other AGN and BLR parameters and find marginal evidence that f is correlated with M BH and the BLR inclination angle, but no significant evidence of a correlation with the AGN luminosity or Eddington ratio.

The Seyfert 1 galaxy Arp 151 was monitored as part of three reverberation mapping campaigns spanning 2008-2015. We present modeling of these velocity-resolved reverberation mapping data sets using a geometric and dynamical model for the broad-line region (BLR). By modeling each of the three data sets independently, we infer the evolution of the BLR structure in Arp 151 over a total of 7 yr and constrain the systematic uncertainties in nonvarying parameters such as the black hole mass. We find that the BLR geometry of a thick disk viewed close to face-on is stable over this time, although the size of the BLR grows by a factor of ∼2. The dynamics of the BLR are dominated by inflow, and the inferred black hole mass is consistent for the three data sets, despite the increase in BLR size. Combining the inference for the three data sets yields a black hole mass and statistical uncertainty of log10(/) = with a standard deviation in individual measurements of 0.13 dex.

We present optical continuum lags for two Seyfert 1 galaxies, MCG+08-11-011 and NGC 2617, using monitoring data from a reverberation mapping campaign carried out in 2014. Our light curves span the ugriz filters over four months, with median cadences of 1.0 and 0.6 days for MCG+08-11-011 and NGC 2617, respectively, combined with roughly daily X-ray and near-UV data from Swift for NGC 2617. We find lags consistent with geometrically thin accretion-disk models that predict a lag-wavelength relation of τ ∝ λ 4/3. However, the observed lags are larger than predictions based on standard thin-disk theory by factors of 3.3 for MCG+08-11-011 and 2.3 for NGC 2617. These differences can be explained if the mass accretion rates are larger than inferred from the optical luminosity by a factor of 4.3 in MCG+08-11-011 and a factor of 1.3 in NGC 2617, although uncertainty in the SMBH masses determines the significance of this result. While the X-ray variability in NGC 2617 precedes the UV/optical variability, the long (2.6 day) lag is problematic for coronal reprocessing models.

During the Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Project observations of NGC 5548, the continuum and emission-line variability became decorrelated during the second half of the six-month-long observing campaign. Here we present Swift and Chandra X-ray spectra of NGC 5548 obtained as part of the campaign. The Swift spectra show that excess flux (relative to a power-law continuum) in the soft X-ray band appears before the start of the anomalous emission-line behavior, peaks during the period of the anomaly, and then declines. This is a model-independent result suggesting that the soft excess is related to the anomaly. We divide the Swift data into on- and off-anomaly spectra to characterize the soft excess via spectral fitting. The cause of the spectral differences is likely due to a change in the intrinsic spectrum rather than to variable obscuration or partial covering. The Chandra spectra have lower signal-to-noise ratios, but are consistent with the Swift data. Our preferred model of the soft excess is emission from an optically thick, warm Comptonizing corona, the effective optical depth of which increases during the anomaly. This model simultaneously explains all three observations: the UV emission-line flux decrease, the soft-excess increase, and the emission-line anomaly.

We present the first results from an optical reverberation mapping campaign executed in 2014 targeting the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) MCG+08-11-011, NGC 2617, NGC 4051, 3C 382, and Mrk 374. Our targets have diverse and interesting observational properties, including a "changing look" AGN and a broad-line radio galaxy. Based on continuum-Hβ lags, we measure black hole masses for all five targets. We also obtain Hγ and He ii λ4686 lags for all objects except 3C 382. The He ii λ4686 lags indicate radial stratification of the BLR, and the masses derived from different emission lines are in general agreement. The relative responsivities of these lines are also in qualitative agreement with photoionization models. These spectra have extremely high signal-to-noise ratios (100-300 per pixel) and there are excellent prospects for obtaining velocity-resolved reverberation signatures.

Valve disease in the presence of porcelain aorta and severe peripheral artery disease challenge physicians in choosing the appropriate therapy. We used a total transcatheter approach, simultaneously implanting a dedicated mitral and aortic valve prosthesis treating a patient with mitral and aortic valve disease at an extremely high surgical risk. (Level of Difficulty: Advanced.)

We conduct a multiwavelength continuum variability study of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548 to investigate the temperature structure of its accretion disk. The 19 overlapping continuum light curves (1158 A oto 9157 A o) combine simultaneous Hubble Space Telescope, Swift, and ground-based observations over a 180 day period from 2014 January to July. Light-curve variability is interpreted as the reverberation response of the accretion disk to irradiation by a central time-varying point source. Our model yields the disk inclination i = 36° ±10° temperature T1 = 44 ±6 ) × 10 3 K at 1 light day from the black hole, and a temperatureradius slope (T ∞r-a) of a = 0.99 ±0.03. We also infer the driving light curve and find that it correlates poorly with both the hard and soft X-ray light curves, suggesting that the X-rays alone may not drive the ultraviolet and optical variability over the observing period. We also decompose the light curves into bright, faint, and mean accretion-disk spectra. These spectra lie below that expected for a standard blackbody accretion disk accreting at L LEdd = 0.1.

During an intensive Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) UV monitoring campaign of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548 performed from 2014 February to July, the normally highly correlated far UV continuum and broad emission line variations decorrelated for ∼60-70 days, starting ∼75 days after the first HST/COS observation. Following this anomalous state, the flux and variability of the broad emission lines returned to a more normal state. This transient behavior, characterized by significant deficits in flux and equivalent width of the strong broad UV emission lines, is the first of its kind to be unambiguously identified in an active galactic nucleus reverberation mapping campaign. The largest corresponding emission line flux deficits occurred for the high ionization, collisionally excited lines C iv and Si iv(+O iv]), and also He ii(+O iii]), while the anomaly in Lywas substantially smaller. This pattern of behavior indicates a depletion in the flux of photons with relative to those near 13.6 eV. We suggest two plausible mechanisms for the observed behavior: (i) temporary obscuration of the ionizing continuum incident upon broad line region (BLR) clouds by a moving veil of material lying between the inner accretion disk and inner (BLR), perhaps resulting from an episodic ejection of material from the disk, or (ii) a temporary change in the intrinsic ionizing continuum spectral energy distribution resulting in a deficit of ionizing photons with energies >54 eV, possibly due to a transient restructuring of the Comptonizing atmosphere above the disk. Current evidence appears to favor the latter explanation.

We present ground-based optical photometric monitoring data for NGC 5548, part of an extended multiwavelength reverberation mapping campaign. The light curves have nearly daily cadence from 2014 January to July in nine filters (BVRI and ugriz). Combined with ultraviolet data from the Hubble Space Telescope and Swift, we confirm significant time delays between the continuum bands as a function of wavelength, extending the wavelength coverage from 1158 Å to the z band (∼9160 Å). We find that the lags at wavelengths longer than the V band are equal to or greater than the lags of high-ionization-state emission lines (such as He ii and λ1640 and λ4686), suggesting that the continuum-emitting source is of a physical size comparable to the inner broad-line region (BLR). The trend of lag with wavelength is broadly consistent with the prediction for continuum reprocessing by an accretion disk with τ ∝ λ 4 . However, the lags also imply a disk radius that is 3 times larger than the prediction from standard thin-disk theory, assuming that the bolometric luminosity is 10% of the Eddington luminosity (L = 0.1 L Edd ). Using optical spectra from the Large Binocular Telescope, we estimate the bias of the interband continuum lags due to BLR emission observed in the filters. We find that the bias for filters with high levels of BLR contamination (∼20%) can be important for the shortest continuum lags and likely has a significant impact on the u and U bands owing to Balmer continuum emission.

Blazars are active galactic nuclei (AGN) with relativistic jets whose non-thermal radiation is extremely variable on various timescales 1-3 . This variability seems mostly random, although some quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs), implying systematic processes, have been reported in blazars and other AGN. QPOs with timescales of days or hours are especially rare 4 in AGN and their nature is highly debated, explained by emitting plasma moving helically inside the jet 5 , plasma instabilities 6,7 or orbital motion in an accretion disc 7,8 . Here we report results of intense optical and γ-ray flux monitoring of BL Lacertae (BL Lac) during a dramatic outburst in 2020 (ref.  9 ). BL Lac, the prototype of a subclass of blazars 10 , is powered by a 1.7 × 10 8  M Sun (ref.  11 ) black hole in an elliptical galaxy (distance = 313 megaparsecs (ref.  12 )). Our observations show QPOs of optical flux and linear polarization, and γ-ray flux, with cycles as short as approximately 13 h during the highest state of the outburst. The QPO properties match the expectations of current-driven kink instabilities 6 near a recollimation shock about 5 parsecs (pc) from the black hole in the wake of an apparent superluminal feature moving down the jet. Such a kink is apparent in a microwave Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) image., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

The amount of ultraviolet irradiation and ablation experienced by a planet depends strongly on the temperature of its host star. Of the thousands of extrasolar planets now known, only six have been found that transit hot, A-type stars (with temperatures of 7,300-10,000 kelvin), and no planets are known to transit the even hotter B-type stars. For example, WASP-33 is an A-type star with a temperature of about 7,430 kelvin, which hosts the hottest known transiting planet, WASP-33b (ref. 1); the planet is itself as hot as a red dwarf star of type M (ref. 2). WASP-33b displays a large heat differential between its dayside and nightside, and is highly inflated-traits that have been linked to high insolation. However, even at the temperature of its dayside, its atmosphere probably resembles the molecule-dominated atmospheres of other planets and, given the level of ultraviolet irradiation it experiences, its atmosphere is unlikely to be substantially ablated over the lifetime of its star. Here we report observations of the bright star HD 195689 (also known as KELT-9), which reveal a close-in (orbital period of about 1.48 days) transiting giant planet, KELT-9b. At approximately 10,170 kelvin, the host star is at the dividing line between stars of type A and B, and we measure the dayside temperature of KELT-9b to be about 4,600 kelvin. This is as hot as stars of stellar type K4 (ref. 5). The molecules in K stars are entirely dissociated, and so the primary sources of opacity in the dayside atmosphere of KELT-9b are probably atomic metals. Furthermore, KELT-9b receives 700 times more extreme-ultraviolet radiation (that is, with wavelengths shorter than 91.2 nanometres) than WASP-33b, leading to a predicted range of mass-loss rates that could leave the planet largely stripped of its envelope during the main-sequence lifetime of the host star.