Aims: Patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are at significant risk of stroke. Anticoagulation reduces this risk in patients with and without atrial fibrillation (AF), but the risk-to-benefit balance in the latter group, overall, is not favourable. Identification of patients with HFrEF, without AF, at the highest risk of stroke may allow targeted and safer use of prophylactic anticoagulant therapy., Methods and Results: In a pooled patient-level cohort of the PARADIGM-HF, ATMOSPHERE, and DAPA-HF trials, a previously derived simple risk model for stroke, consisting of three variables (history of prior stroke, insulin-treated diabetes, and plasma N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level), was validated. Of the 20 159 patients included, 12 751 patients did not have AF at baseline. Among patients without AF, 346 (2.7%) experienced a stroke over a median follow up of 2.0 years (rate 11.7 per 1000 patient-years). The risk for stroke increased with increasing risk score: fourth quintile hazard ratio (HR) 2.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.60-3.45]; fifth quintile HR 3.73 (95% CI 2.58-5.38), with the first quintile as reference. For patients in the top quintile, the rate of stroke was 21.2 per 1000 patient-years, similar to participants with AF not receiving anticoagulation (20.1 per 1000 patient-years). Model discrimination was good with a C-index of 0.84 (0.75-0.91)., Conclusion: It is possible to identify a subset of HFrEF patients without AF with a stroke-risk equivalent to that of patients with AF who are not anticoagulated. In these patients, the risk-to-benefit balance might justify the use of prophylactic anticoagulation, but this hypothesis needs to be tested prospectively., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: T.K. received speaker fees from Abbott, Ono Pharma, Otsuka Pharma, Novartis, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Abiomed. A.T. have no disclosures to report. W.T.A. has received personal fees from Abbott; has received consulting fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, CVRx, Edwards Lifesciences, Impulse Dynamics, and Respicardia; has received salary support from V-Wave Medical; and has received research support from the NHLBI, all for studies performed within the heart failure arena. A.S.D. has received grants and personal fees from AstraZeneca during the conduct of the study; personal fees from Abbott, Biofourmis, Boston Scientific, Boehringer Ingelheim, Corvidia, DalCor Pharma, Relypsa, Regeneron, and Merck; grants and personal fees from Alnylam and Novartis; and personal fees from Amgen, outside the submitted work. K.D. has received honoraria and/or research support from Medtronic, Boston Scientific, St Jude, Biotronik, Sorin, Merck, Novartis, Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Bayer, GlaxoSmithKline, Roche, Sanofi, Abbott, Otsuka, Leo, Servier, and Bristol-Meyers Squibb. S.E.I. has served on clinical trial committees or as a consultant to AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novo Nordisk, Lexicon, Merck, Pfizer, vTv Therapeutics, Abbott, and Esperion; and has given lectures sponsored by AstraZeneca, and Boehringer Ingelheim. L.K. has received financial from AstraZeneca; and personal fees from Novartis and Bristol Myers Squibb as a speaker. M.N.K. has received research grant support from AstraZeneca, and Boehringer Ingelheim; has served as a consultant or on an advisory board for Amgen, Applied Therapeutics, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Esperion Therapeutics, Janssen, Merck (Diabetes and Cardiovascular), Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, and Vifor Pharma; has received other research support from AstraZeneca; and has received honorarium from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Novo Nordisk. F.A.M. has received personal fees from AstraZeneca. Mi.P. reports consulting fees from AbbVie, Akcea, Actavis, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Cardiorentis, Daiichi Sankyo, Gilead, Johnson & Johnson, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Relypsa, Sanofi, Synthetic Biologics, and Theravance. Ma.P. is supported by the British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence Award (RE/13/5/30177 and RE/18/6/34217þ); has received research funding from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Boston Scientific, Medtronic, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pharmacosmos, Roche, and SQ Innovations; and has served as a consultant and on Clinical Trials Committees for Abbvie, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Cardiorentis, Medtronic, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pharmacosmos, Siemens, and Takeda. P.P. has received personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, AstraZeneca, Servier, Bristol Myers Squib, Amgen, Novartis, Merck, Pfizer, and Berlin Chemie; and has received grants and personal fees from Vifor Pharma. J.L.R. reports grants and consulting fees from Novartis and consulting fees from Abbott, AstraZeneca, MyoKardia, and Sanofi. K.S. reports honoraria from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Novartis. M.S.S. has received grants and personal fees from AstraZeneca during the conduct of the study; and has received grants and personal fees from Amgen, Intarcia, Janssen Research and Development, Medicines Company, MedImmune, Merck, and Novartis; and has received personal fees from Anthos Therapeutics, Bristol-Myers Squibb, CVS Caremark, DalCor, Dyrnamix, Esperion, IFM Therapeutics, Ionis; and has received grants from Daiichi Sankyo, Bayer, Pfizer, Poxel, Eisai, GlaxoSmithKline, Quark Pharmaceuticals, and Takeda outside the submitted work; and is a member of the TIMI Study Group, which has also received institutional research grant support through Brigham and Women’s Hospital from Abbott, Aralez, Roche, and Zora Biosciences. K.S. reports honoraria from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim and Novartis. M.R.Z. reports research funding from Novartis and has been a consultant for Novartis, Abbott, Boston Scientific, CVRx, EBR, Endotronics, Ironwood, Merck, Medtronic, and Myokardia V-Wave. S.D.S. has received research grants from Actelion, Alnylam, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bellerophon, Bayer, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celladon, Cytokinetics, Eidos, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Ionis, Lilly, Mesoblast, MyoKardia, National Institutes of Health/NHLBI, Neurotronik, Novartis, NovoNordisk, Respicardia, Sanofi Pasteur, Theracos, US2.AI; and has consulted for Abbott, Action, Akros, Alnylam, Amgen, Arena, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cardior, Cardurion, Corvia, Cytokinetics, Daiichi Sankyo, GlaxoSmithKline, Lilly, Merck, Myokardia, Novartis, Roche, Theracos, Quantum Genomics, Cardurion, Janssen, Cardiac Dimensions, Tenaya, Sanofi Pasteur, Dinaqor, Tremeau, CellPro-Thera, Moderna, American Regent, and Sarepta. P.S.J.’s employer has been remunerated for his work on clinical trials from AstraZeneca, Bayer, Novo Nordisk, and Novartis. Consulting and speakers fees Novartis, AstraZeneca, Boheringer Ingelheim, research funding Boehringer Ingelheim. J.J.V.M. has received payments through Glasgow University from work on clinical trials, consulting, and other activities from Alnylam, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, BMS, Cardurion, Cytokinetics, DalCor, GSK, Ionis, KBP Biosciences, Novartis, Pfizer, Theracos Personal lecture fees: the Corpus, Abbott, Hikma, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Medscape/Heart.Org, Radcliffe Cardiology, Servier Director, Global Clinical Trial Partners (GCTP)., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.)