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In this paper, the model of early warning system for circular economy development system was studied, the early-warning system for circular economy provides a quantitative model to support the pollution control. Specifically, this paper built an early warning index system of regional circular economy, and put forward the measure model for the development of circular economy. In addition, this paper constructed prediction model of the circulation economy development. Finally, by the proposed early warning model, this paper analysed the circular economy of Henan province and targeted policy suggestions were put forward for the construction of circular economy of Henan province.

Abstract: With the increasing pressure on China to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, it is crucial to clarify the effect of implementing environmental regulations and their impact on the region. Many studies have focused on the linear, rather than nonlinear, relationship between environmental regulation and CO2 emissions. The exploration of nonlinear relations is conducive to the in-depth study of policy effects and regional differences of environmental regulations in China. To ensure effective CO2 emission reductions, regional differences in CO2 emissions in China should also be considered. In this study 30 provinces of China were divided into three different regions according to their level of economic development from 2004 to 2015. Taking the energy intensity and foreign direct investment (FDI) as threshold variables, a threshold model was used to examine the relationship between environmental regulation and CO2 emissions. It was found that environmental regulation has a threshold effect on CO2 emissions, with significant differences among the eastern, central, and western regions. Environmental regulations in the eastern region were ineffective for curbing CO2 emissions, while the energy intensity was in the middle and low threshold range. However, FDI had a promotional effect on CO2 emissions. In the central region, environmental regulations reduced CO2 emissions under the influence of energy intensity and FDI. In the western region, environmental regulations could not mitigate CO2 emissions when the energy intensity and FDI were used as the threshold variables. It was concluded that a diverse range of measures for CO2 reduction should be adopted according to the local economic situation.Graphical abstract: [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large accumulation of carbon dioxide emission have attracted much attention recently. The existing researches mainly focused on such impact factors of carbon dioxide emission as population, economy, technology and others. However, there is little specific guidance for the subdivision of demographic factors. This paper employed STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model to examine the impact of population size, per capita consumption, energy intensity, urbanization and aging population on CO 2 emissions by adopting panel data of 30 provinces from 1997 to 2012. Taking the climate change as a control variable, we can get the result that the population size, per capita consumption and energy intensity have strong explanatory power on CO 2 emissions in the three regions. The urbanization level has a positive influence on carbon emissions in the western region and has a negative effect in the central region, while it is not statistically significant in the eastern region. Aging population increases emissions in the eastern region, while decreases emissions in the central region and the western region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]