1. The global methane budget 2000-2012
- Author
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Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Peter Bergamaschi, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, David J. Beerling, Cyril Crevoisier, Philippe Bousquet, Julia Marshall, Simona Castaldi, Isabelle Pison, Heon Sook Kim, Yasunori Tohjima, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Atsushi Takizawa, Charles L. Curry, Debra Wunch, Kyle C. McDonald, Michel Ramonet, David Bastviken, Simon O'Doherty, Josep G. Canadell, Robin Locatelli, Francesco N. Tubiello, Prabir K. Patra, P. Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Catherine Prigent, Sander Houweling, Toshinobu Machida, David J. Wilton, Joe R. Melton, Ronald G. Prinn, William J. Riley, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Monia Santini, Giuseppe Etiope, Doug Worthy, Guido R. van der Werf, Christian Frankenberg, Shushi Peng, Vivek K. Arora, Patrick M. Crill, Ray F. Weiss, Nicolas Viovy, Michiel van Weele, Anna Peregon, Shamil Maksyutov, Vaishali Naik, Zhen Zhang, Thomas Kleinen, Lori Bruhwiler, Yukio Yoshida, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Kristofer R. Covey, Fortunat Joos, Misa Ishizawa, Bowen Zhang, Christine Wiedinmyer, Ronny Schroeder, Nicola Gedney, Hanqin Tian, Changhui Peng, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Mihai Alexe, Victor Brovkin, Ray L. Langenfelds, Isamu Morino, Glen P. Peters, Xiyan Xu, Andy Wiltshire, Isobel J. Simpson, Ben Poulter, Marielle Saunois, Qiuan Zhu, Donald R. Blake, Paul B. Krummel, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Makoto Saito, Gordon Brailsford, Robert B. Jackson, Renato Spahni, Earth and Climate, Hydrology and Geo-environmental sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Saunois, Marielle, Bousquet, Philippe, Poulter, Ben, Peregon, Anna, Ciais, Philippe, Canadell Josep, G, Dlugokencky Edward, J., Etiope, Giuseppe, Bastviken, David, Houweling, Sander, Janssens Maenhout, Greet, Tubiello Francesco, N., Castaldi, Simona, Jackson Robert, B., Alexe, Mihai, Arora Vivek, K., Beerling David, J., Bergamaschi, Peter, Blake Donald, R., Brailsford, Gordon, Brovkin, Victor, Bruhwiler, Lori, Crevoisier, Cyril, Crill, Patrick, Covey, Kristofer, Curry, Charle, Frankenberg, Christian, Gedney, Nicola, Höglund Isaksson, Lena, Ishizawa, Misa, Ito, Akihiko, Joos, Fortunat, Kim Heon, Sook, Kleinen, Thoma, Krummel, Paul, Lamarque Jean, Françoi, Langenfelds, Ray, Locatelli, Robin, Machida, Toshinobu, Maksyutov, Shamil, McDonald Kyle, C., Marshall, Julia, Melton Joe, R., Morino, Isamu, Naik Vaishali, Oapo, Doherty, Simon, Parmentier Frans Jan, W., Patra Prabir, K., Peng, Changhui, Peng, Shushi, Peters Glen, P., Pison, Isabelle, Prigent, Catherine, Prinn, Ronald, Ramonet, Michel, Riley William, J., Saito, Makoto, Santini, Monia, Schroeder, Ronny, Simpson Isobel, J., Spahni, Renato, Steele, Paul, Takizawa, Atsushi, Thornton Brett, F., Tian, Hanqin, Tohjima, Yasunori, Viovy, Nicola, Voulgarakis, Apostolo, van Weele, Michiel, van der Werf Guido, R., Weiss, Ray, Wiedinmyer, Christine, Wilton David, J., Wiltshire, Andy, Worthy, Doug, Wunch, Debra, Xu, Xiyan, Yoshida, Yukio, Zhang, Bowen, Zhang, Zhen, Zhu, Qiuan, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, The Department of Thematic Studies - Water and Environmental Studies, Linköping University (LIU), SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), LM, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield [Sheffield], JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Tropospheric sounding, assimilation, and modeling group [JPL], Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH)-NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Atmospheric Chemistry Division [Boulder], National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO, Strathom Energie, Centre Européen de Réalité Virtuelle (CERV), École Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Brest (ENIB), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), Laboratoire d'Etude du Rayonnement et de la Matière en Astrophysique (LERMA), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Cergy Pontoise (UCP), Université Paris-Seine-Université Paris-Seine-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Department of Physics [Imperial College London], Imperial College London, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Climate Research Division [Toronto], California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Laboratoire de Physique et d'Etude des Matériaux (UMR 8213) (LPEM), Ecole Superieure de Physique et de Chimie Industrielles de la Ville de Paris (ESPCI Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), USC Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California (USC), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Prinn, Ronald G, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), and University of California-University of California
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Naturgeografi ,TRACE GASES ,010501 environmental sciences ,Atmospheric sciences ,7. Clean energy ,01 natural sciences ,Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience ,Methane ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,Natural gas ,11. Sustainability ,SDG 13 - Climate Action ,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ,Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ,Greenhouse effect ,lcsh:Environmental sciences ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,lcsh:GE1-350 ,[PHYS]Physics [physics] ,GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ,methane ,lcsh:QE1-996.5 ,Geology ,PAST 2 DECADES ,Carbon project ,Atmospheric chemistry ,Physical Sciences ,hydroxyl ,Earth and Related Environmental Sciences ,Wetland methane emissions ,BIOMASS BURNING EMISSIONS ,NATURAL-GAS ,PROCESS-BASED MODEL ,TROPOSPHERIC METHANE ,530 Physics ,methane sources ,Climate change ,Atmospheric Sciences ,ATMOSPHERIC HYDROXYL RADICALS ,SDG 14 - Life Below Water ,ISOTOPIC COMPOSITION ,550 Earth sciences & geology ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,global model ,Science & Technology ,business.industry ,Environmental engineering ,Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap ,15. Life on land ,methane budget ,lcsh:Geology ,Climate Action ,Geochemistry ,chemistry ,Physical Geography ,13. Climate action ,Greenhouse gas ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,business ,[PHYS.ASTR]Physics [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph] ,INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT ACCMIP - Abstract
The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (similar to biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 540-568. About 60% of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (similar to 64% of the global budget, amp;lt;30 degrees N) as compared to mid (similar to 32 %, 30-60 degrees N) and high northern latitudes (similar to 4 %, 60-90 degrees N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (similar to 58 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 51-72, -14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH(4) yr(-1), range 73-108, + 19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project. Funding Agencies|Swiss National Science Foundation; NASA [NNX14AF93G, NNX14AO73G]; National Environmental Science Program - Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub; European Commission [283576, 633080]; ESA Climate Change Initiative Greenhouse Gases Phase 2 project; US Department of Energy, BER [DE-AC02-05CH11231]; FAO member countries; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan [2-1502]; ERC [322998]; NERC [NE/J00748X/1]; Swedish Research Council VR; Research Council of Norway [244074]; NSF [1243232, 1243220]; National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC); Chinas QianRen Program; CSIRO Australia; Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Australian Institute of Marine Science; Australian Antarctic Division; NOAA USA; Meteorological Service of Canada; National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) [NAG5-12669, NNX07AE89G, NNX11AF17G, NNX07AE87G, NNX07AF09G, NNX11AF15G, NNX11AF16G]; Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC, UK) [GA01081]; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO Australia); Bureau of Meteorology (Australia); Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme [GA01101]
- Published
- 2016
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