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Economic historians have long studied market integration and contagion dynamics during periods of warfare and global stress, but there is a lack of model-based evidence on these phenomena. This paper uses an econometric contagion model, the Diebold-Yilmaz framework, to examine the dynamics of economic shocks across European markets in the early modern period. Our findings suggest that key periods of violent conflicts significantly increased food price spillover across cities, causing widespread disruptions across Europe. We also demonstrate the ability of this framework to capture relevant historical dynamics between the main trade centers of the period., Comment: 20 pages

This work considers the impact of resolution in the construction of mock observations of simulated galaxies. In particular, when building mock integral field spectroscopic observations from galaxy formation models in cosmological simulations, we investigate the possible systematics that may arise given the assumption that all galaxies above some stellar mass limit will provide unbiased and meaningful observable stellar kinematics. We build a catalogue of N-body simulations to sample the range of stellar particle resolutions within the EAGLE Ref0050N0752 simulation box and examine how their observable kinematics vary relative to a higher-resolution N-body control. We use these models to compile a table of the minimum number of particles-per-pixel to reach a given uncertainty in the fitted line-of-sight velocity distribution parameters. Further, we introduce a Voronoi-binning module to the mock observation code, SimSpin, in order to meet these minimum numbers. Using EAGLE, we show the impact of this shot noise on the observed spin-ellipticity plane and the recovery of this space when observations are binned with increasing numbers of particles. In conclusion, we advise binning mock images to meet at least 200 particles-per-pixel to avoid systematically under-estimating the velocity dispersion along a given line-of-sight. We demonstrate that this is important for comparing galaxies extracted from the same simulation, as well as between simulations of varying mass resolution and observations of real galaxies., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures (including 3 pages of appendix with 2 figures). Accepted 2024 November 3 for publication in MNRAS. Received 2024 October 28; in original form 2024 August 9

We report on the first deployment of a ytterbium (Yb) transportable optical lattice clock (TOLC), commercially shipping the clock 3,000 km from Boulder, Colorado to Washington DC. The system, composed of a rigidly mounted optical reference cavity, atomic physics package, and an optical frequency comb, fully realizes an independent frequency standard for comparisons in the optical and microwave domains. The shipped Yb TOLC was fully operational within 2 days of arrival, enabling frequency comparisons with rubidium (Rb) fountains at the United States Naval Observatory (USNO). To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first deployment of a fully independent TOLC, including the frequency comb, coherently uniting the optical stability of the Yb TOLC to the microwave output of the Rb fountain., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures

In state-of-the-art optical lattice clocks, beyond-electric-dipole polarizability terms lead to a break-down of magic wavelength trapping. In this Letter, we report a novel approach to evaluate lattice light shifts, specifically addressing recent discrepancies in the atomic multipolarizability term between experimental techniques and theoretical calculations. We combine imaging and multi-ensemble techniques to evaluate lattice light shift atomic coefficients, leveraging comparisons in a dual-ensemble lattice clock to rapidly evaluate differential frequency shifts. Further, we demonstrate application of a running wave field to probe both the multipolarizability and hyperpolarizability coefficients, establishing a new technique for future lattice light shift evaluations., Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures

We use the cosmological magneto-hydrodynamical simulation TNG50 to study the relationship between black hole feedback, the presence of stellar bars, and star formation quenching in Milky Way-like disc galaxies. Of our sample of 198 discs, about 63 per cent develop stellar bars that last until z=0. After the formation of their bars, the majority of these galaxies develop persistent 3-15 kpc wide holes in the centres of their gas discs. Tracking their evolution from z=4 to 0, we demonstrate that barred galaxies tend to form within dark matter haloes that become centrally disc dominated early on (and are thus unstable to bar formation) whereas unbarred galaxies do not; barred galaxies also host central black holes that grow more rapidly than those of unbarred galaxies. As a result, most barred galaxies eventually experience kinetic wind feedback that operates when the mass of the central supermassive black hole exceeds $M_{BH} > 10^8 M_{\odot}$. This feedback ejects gas from the central disc into the circumgalactic medium and rapidly quenches barred galaxies of their central star formation. If kinetic black hole feedback occurs in an unbarred disc it suppresses subsequent star formation and inhibits its growth, stabilising the disc against future bar formation. Consequently, most barred galaxies develop black hole-driven gas holes, though a gas hole alone does not guarantee the presence of a stellar bar. This subtle relationship between black hole feedback, cold gas disc morphology, and stellar bars may provide constraints on subgrid physics models for supermassive black hole feedback., Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, submitted to MNRAS. Comments welcome

We use idealised N-body simulations of equilibrium discs in live and static haloes to study how dark matter co-evolution impacts the assembly of stellar particles into a bar and the halo response. Initial conditions correspond to a marginally unstable disc according to commonly used disc stability criteria, and are evolved for the equivalent of about 150 disc dynamical times (10Gyr). An extensive convergence study ensures accurate modelling of the bar formation process. Live haloes lead to the formation of a strong bar, but the same disc remains unbarred when evolved in a static halo. Neither seeded disc instabilities, nor longer (60Gyr) simulations result in the formation of a bar when the halo is static. When the live halo is replaced with a static analogue at later times the previously robust bar slowly dissipates, suggesting: (1) the co-evolution of the disc and halo is critical for the assembly and long-term survival of bars in marginally unstable discs; and (2) global disc stability criteria must be modified for discs in the presence of live haloes. In our live halo runs, a "dark bar" grows synchronously with the stellar bar. Processes that inhibit the transfer of angular momentum between the halo and disc may stabilise a galaxy against bar formation, and can lead to the dissolution of the bar itself. This raises further questions about the puzzling stability of observed discs that are marginally unstable, but unbarred., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures; submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome

We use the Eagle simulation to study the relationship between the stellar haloes of Milky-Way-mass galaxies and their recent merger histories. The stellar mass ratio of the most massive merger that occurred since $z=1$ is strongly correlated with the $z=0$ fraction of ex situ stars in the galaxy, $f_{\rm ex\ situ}$, but is weakly correlated with stellar halo mass fraction, $f_{\rm SH}$, particularly for disc galaxies. Contrary to common belief, our results suggest that disc galaxies with low mass stellar haloes do not necessarily have quiescent merger histories; in fact, roughly one quarter have experienced a merger with stellar mass ratio $> 0.1$ since $z=1$. We demonstrate that the population of disc galaxies with low $f_{\rm SH}$ and active merger histories undergo mergers with satellites whose orbits are more circular than average and are approximately co-planar with the disc; instead of contributing significantly to the stellar halo, these mergers lead to discs that contain a substantial fraction of ex situ stellar mass and are thicker and more extended than those of quiescent galaxies. Such mergers also supply fuel that often incites a significant episode of in situ star formation in the disc. Our results suggest that seemingly quiescent disc galaxies with low-mass stellar haloes actually have diverse merger histories, which limits the extent to which stellar haloes alone can act as observable tracers of the hierarchical assembly of galaxies., Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures. Submitted to MNRAS

We demonstrate sub-recoil Sisyphus cooling using the long-lived $^{3}\mathrm{P}_{0}$ clock state in alkaline-earth-like ytterbium. A 1388 nm optical standing wave nearly resonant with the $^{3}\textrm{P}_{0}$$\,\rightarrow$$\,^{3}\textrm{D}_{1}$ transition creates a spatially periodic light shift of the $^{3}\textrm{P}_{0}$ clock state. Following excitation on the ultranarrow clock transition, we observe Sisyphus cooling in this potential, as the light shift is correlated with excitation to $^{3}\textrm{D}_{1}$ and subsequent spontaneous decay to the $^{1}\textrm{S}_{0}$ ground state. We observe that cooling enhances the loading efficiency of atoms into a 759 nm magic-wavelength one-dimensional (1D) optical lattice, as compared to standard Doppler cooling on the $^{1}\textrm{S}_{0}$$\,\rightarrow\,$$^{3}\textrm{P}_{1}$ transition. Sisyphus cooling yields temperatures below 200 nK in the weakly confined, transverse dimensions of the 1D optical lattice. These lower temperatures improve optical lattice clocks by facilitating the use of shallow lattices with reduced light shifts, while retaining large atom numbers to reduce the quantum projection noise. This Sisyphus cooling can be pulsed or continuous and is applicable to a range of quantum metrology applications., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures

We demonstrate programmable control over the spatial distribution of ultra-cold atoms confined in an optical lattice. The control is facilitated through a combination of spatial manipulation of the magneto-optical trap and atomic population shelving to a metastable state. We first employ the technique to load an extended (5 mm) atomic sample with uniform density in an optical lattice clock, reducing atomic interactions and realizing remarkable frequency homogeneity across the atomic cloud. We also prepare multiple spatially separated atomic ensembles and realize multi-ensemble clock operation within the standard one-dimensional (1D) optical lattice clock architecture. Leveraging this technique, we prepare two oppositely spin-polarized ensembles that are independently addressable, offering a platform for implementing spectroscopic protocols for enhanced tracking of local oscillator phase. Finally, we demonstrate a relative fractional frequency instability at one second of $2.4(1) \times10^{-17}$ between two ensembles, useful for characterization of intra-lattice differential systematics., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures

This paper presents a novel approach to modeling human driving behavior, designed for use in evaluating autonomous vehicle control systems in a simulation environments. Our methodology leverages a hierarchical forward-looking, risk-aware estimation framework with learned parameters to generate human-like driving trajectories, accommodating multiple driver levels determined by model parameters. This approach is grounded in multimodal trajectory prediction, using a deep neural network with LSTM-based social pooling to predict the trajectories of surrounding vehicles. These trajectories are used to compute forward-looking risk assessments along the ego vehicle's path, guiding its navigation. Our method aims to replicate human driving behaviors by learning parameters that emulate human decision-making during driving. We ensure that our model exhibits robust generalization capabilities by conducting simulations, employing real-world driving data to validate the accuracy of our approach in modeling human behavior. The results reveal that our model effectively captures human behavior, showcasing its versatility in modeling human drivers in diverse highway scenarios., Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, accepted to the 2024 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA 2024)

We implement coherent delocalization as a tool for improving the two primary metrics of atomic clock performance: systematic uncertainty and instability. By decreasing atomic density with coherent delocalization, we suppress cold-collision shifts and two-body losses. Atom loss attributed to Landau-Zener tunneling in the ground lattice band would compromise coherent delocalization at low trap depths for our $^{171}$Yb atoms; hence, we implement for the first time delocalization in excited lattice bands. Doing so increases the spatial distribution of atoms trapped in the vertically-oriented optical lattice by $\sim7$ times. At the same time we observe a reduction of the cold-collision shift by 6.5(8) times, while also making inelastic two-body loss negligible. With these advantages, we measure the trap-light-induced quenching rate and natural lifetime of the ${}^3$P${}_0$ excited-state as $5.7(7)\times10^{-4}$ $E_r^{-1}s^{-1}$ and 19(2) s, respectively.

The merger history of a galaxy is thought to be one of the major factors determining its internal dynamics, with galaxies having undergone different types or mergers (e.g. dry, minor or major mergers) predicted to show different dynamical properties. We study the instantaneous orbital distribution of galaxies in the Eagle simulation, colouring the orbits of the stellar particles by their stellar age, in order to understand whether stars form in particular orbits (e.g. in a thin or thick disc). We first show that Eagle reproduces well the observed stellar mass fractions in different stellar orbital families as a function of stellar mass and spin parameter at z = 0. We find that the youngest stars reside in a thin disc component that can extend to the very inner regions of galaxies, and that older stars have warmer orbits, with the oldest ones showing orbits consistent with both hot and counter-rotating classifications, which is consistent with the trend found in the Milky-Way and other disc galaxies. We also show that counter-rotating orbits trace galaxy mergers - in particular dry mergers, and that in the absence of mergers, counter-rotating orbits can also be born from highly misaligned gas accretion that leads to star formation., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS, 21 pages

We perform a structural decomposition of galaxies identified in three cosmological hydrodynamical simulations by applying Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) to the kinematics of their stellar particles. We study the resulting disc, bulge, and intra-halo light (IHL) components of galaxies whose host dark matter haloes have virial masses in the range $M_{200}=10^{11}$-- $10^{15}\,{\rm M_\odot}$. Our decomposition technique isolates galactic discs whose mass fractions, $f_{\rm disc}$, correlate strongly with common alternative morphology indicators; for example, $f_{\rm disc}$ is approximately equal to $\kappa_{{\rm co}}$, the fraction of stellar kinetic energy in co-rotation. The primary aim of our study, however, is to characterise the IHL of galaxies in a consistent manner and over a broad mass range, and to analyse its properties from the scale of galactic stellar haloes up to the intra-cluster light. Our results imply that the IHL fraction, $f_{\rm IHL}$, has appreciable scatter and is strongly correlated with galaxy morphology: at fixed stellar mass, the IHL of disc galaxies is typically older and less massive than that of spheroids. Above $M_{200}\approx 10^{13}\,{\rm M_\odot}$, we find, on average, $f_{\rm IHL}\approx 0.45$, albeit with considerable scatter. The transition radius beyond which the IHL dominates the stellar mass of a galaxy is roughly $30\,{\rm kpc}$ for $M_{200}\lesssim 10^{12.8}\,{\rm M_\odot}$, but increases strongly towards higher masses. However, we find that no alternative IHL definitions -- whether based on the ex-situ stellar mass, or the stellar mass outside a spherical aperture -- reproduce our dynamically-defined IHL masses., Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures. MNRAS published

Grating magneto-optical traps are an enabling quantum technology for portable metrological devices with ultracold atoms. However, beam diffraction efficiency and angle are affected by wavelength, creating a single-optic design challenge for laser cooling in two stages at two distinct wavelengths - as commonly used for loading e.g. Sr or Yb atoms into optical lattice or tweezer clocks. Here, we optically characterize a wide variety of binary gratings at different wavelengths to find a simple empirical fit to experimental grating diffraction efficiency data in terms of dimensionless etch depth and period for various duty cycles. The model avoids complex 3D light-grating surface calculations, yet still yields results accurate to a few percent across a broad range of parameters. Gratings optimized for two (or more) wavelengths can now be designed in an informed manner suitable for a wide class of atomic species enabling advanced quantum technologies., Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables. See also 4-page supplementary document

We use two cosmological simulations to study the impact of spurious heating of stellar motions within simulated galaxies by dark matter (DM) particles. The simulations share the same numerical and subgrid parameters, but one used a factor of 7 more DM particles. Many galaxy properties are unaffected by spurious heating, including their masses, star formation histories, and the spatial distribution of their gaseous baryons. The distribution and kinematics of stellar and DM particles, however, are affected. Below a resolution-dependent virial mass, $M_{200}^{\rm spur}$, galaxies have higher characteristic velocities, larger sizes, and more angular momentum in the simulation with lower DM mass resolution; haloes have higher central densities and lower velocity dispersions. Above $M_{200}^{\rm spur}$, galaxies and haloes have similar properties in both runs. The differences arise due to spurious heating, which transfers energy from DM to stellar particles, causing galaxies to heat up and haloes to cool down. The value of $M_{200}^{\rm spur}$ can be derived from an empirical disc heating model, and coincides with the mass below which the predicted {\em spurious} velocity dispersion exceeds the {\em measured} velocity dispersion of simulated galaxies. We predict that galaxies in the $100^3\, {\rm Mpc}^3$ \eagle\, run and IllustrisTNG-100 are robust to spurious collisional effects at their half-mass radii provided $M_{200}^{\rm spur}\approx 10^{11.7}{\rm M_\odot}$; for the $25^3\, {\rm Mpc}^3$ \eagle\, run and IllustrisTNG-50, we predict $M_{200}^{\rm spur}\approx 10^{11}{\rm M_\odot}$. Suppressing spurious heating at smaller/larger radii, or for older/younger stellar populations, requires haloes to be resolved with more/fewer DM particles., Comment: 17 pages, 15 figures. MNRAS published. A basic python script for calculating spurious disc heating rates is available at https://github.com/AaronDLudlow/hot-disc.git

All modern galaxy formation models employ stochastic elements in their sub-grid prescriptions to discretise continuous equations across the time domain. In this paper, we investigate how the stochastic nature of these models, notably star formation, black hole accretion, and their associated feedback, that act on small ($<$ kpc) scales, can back-react on macroscopic galaxy properties (e.g. stellar mass and size) across long ($>$ Gyr) timescales. We find that the scatter in scaling relations predicted by the EAGLE model implemented in the SWIFT code can be significantly impacted by random variability between re-simulations of the same object, even when galaxies are resolved by tens of thousands of particles. We then illustrate how re-simulations of the same object can be used to better understand the underlying model, by showing how correlations between galaxy stellar mass and black hole mass disappear at the highest black hole masses ($M_{\rm BH} > 10^8$ M$_\odot$), indicating that the feedback cycle may be interrupted by external processes. We find that although properties that are collected cumulatively over many objects are relatively robust against random variability (e.g. the median of a scaling relation), the properties of individual galaxies (such as galaxy stellar mass) can vary by up to 25\%, even far into the well-resolved regime, driven by bursty physics (black hole feedback) and mergers between galaxies. We suggest that studies of individual objects within cosmological simulations be treated with caution, and that any studies aiming to closely investigate such objects must account for random variability within their results., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We use the EAGLE cosmological simulations to study the evolution of the vertical velocity dispersion of cold gas, $\sigma_{z}$, in central disc galaxies and its connection to stellar feedback, gravitational instabilities, cosmological gas accretion and galaxy mergers. To isolate the impact of feedback, we analyse runs that turn off stellar and (or) AGN feedback in addition to a run that includes both. The evolution of $\sigma_z$ and its dependence on stellar mass and star formation rate in EAGLE are in good agreement with observations. Galaxies hosted by haloes of similar virial mass, $\rm M_{200}$, have similar $\sigma_z$ values even in runs where feedback is absent. The prevalence of local instabilities in discs is uncorrelated with $\sigma_z$ at low redshift and becomes only weakly correlated at high redshifts and in galaxies hosted by massive haloes. $\sigma_z$ correlates most strongly with the specific gas accretion rate onto the disc as well as with the degree of misalignment between the inflowing gas and the disc's rotation axis. These correlations are significant across all redshifts and halo masses, with misaligned accretion being the primary driver of high gas turbulence at redshifts $z \lesssim 1$ and for halo masses $\rm M_{200} \lesssim 10^{11.5} M_{\odot}$. Galaxy mergers increase $\sigma_z$, but because they are rare in our sample, they play only a minor role in its evolution. Our results suggest that the turbulence of cold gas in EAGLE discs results from a complex interplay of different physical processes whose relative importance depends on halo mass and redshift., Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS