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NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission collects extensive data to monitor the Sun's daily activity. In the realm of space mission design, data compression plays a crucial role in addressing the challenges posed by limited telemetry rates. The primary objective of data compression is to facilitate efficient data management and transmission to work within the constrained bandwidth, thereby ensuring that essential information is captured while optimizing the utilization of available resources. This paper introduces a neural video compression technique that achieves a high compression ratio for the SDO's image data collection. The proposed approach focuses on leveraging both temporal and spatial redundancies in the data, leading to a more efficient compression. In this work, we introduce an architecture based on the Transformer model, which is specifically designed to capture both local and global information from input images in an effective and efficient manner. Additionally, our network is equipped with an entropy model that can accurately model the probability distribution of the latent representations and improves the speed of the entropy decoding step. The entropy model leverages a channel-dependent approach and utilizes checkerboard-shaped local and global spatial contexts. By combining the Transformer-based video compression network with our entropy model, the proposed compression algorithm demonstrates superior performance over traditional video codecs like H.264 and H.265, as confirmed by our experimental results.

While replacing Gaussian decoders with a conditional diffusion model enhances the perceptual quality of reconstructions in neural image compression, their lack of inductive bias for image data restricts their ability to achieve state-of-the-art perceptual levels. To address this limitation, we adopt a non-isotropic diffusion model at the decoder side. This model imposes an inductive bias aimed at distinguishing between frequency contents, thereby facilitating the generation of high-quality images. Moreover, our framework is equipped with a novel entropy model that accurately models the probability distribution of latent representation by exploiting spatio-channel correlations in latent space, while accelerating the entropy decoding step. This channel-wise entropy model leverages both local and global spatial contexts within each channel chunk. The global spatial context is built upon the Transformer, which is specifically designed for image compression tasks. The designed Transformer employs a Laplacian-shaped positional encoding, the learnable parameters of which are adaptively adjusted for each channel cluster. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed framework yields better perceptual quality compared to cutting-edge generative-based codecs, and the proposed entropy model contributes to notable bitrate savings., Comment: Accepted by CVPR2024

Studying the solar system and especially the Sun relies on the data gathered daily from space missions. These missions are data-intensive and compressing this data to make them efficiently transferable to the ground station is a twofold decision to make. Stronger compression methods, by distorting the data, can increase data throughput at the cost of accuracy which could affect scientific analysis of the data. On the other hand, preserving subtle details in the compressed data requires a high amount of data to be transferred, reducing the desired gains from compression. In this work, we propose a neural network-based lossy compression method to be used in NASA's data-intensive imagery missions. We chose NASA's SDO mission which transmits 1.4 terabytes of data each day as a proof of concept for the proposed algorithm. In this work, we propose an adversarially trained neural network, equipped with local and non-local attention modules to capture both the local and global structure of the image resulting in a better trade-off in rate-distortion (RD) compared to conventional hand-engineered codecs. The RD variational autoencoder used in this work is jointly trained with a channel-dependent entropy model as a shared prior between the analysis and synthesis transforms to make the entropy coding of the latent code more effective. Our neural image compression algorithm outperforms currently-in-use and state-of-the-art codecs such as JPEG and JPEG-2000 in terms of the RD performance when compressing extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) data. As a proof of concept for use of this algorithm in SDO data analysis, we have performed coronal hole (CH) detection using our compressed images, and generated consistent segmentations, even at a compression rate of $\sim0.1$ bits per pixel (compared to 8 bits per pixel on the original data) using EUV data from SDO., Comment: Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems (TAES). arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2210.06478

Transform and entropy models are the two core components in deep image compression neural networks. Most existing learning-based image compression methods utilize convolutional-based transform, which lacks the ability to model long-range dependencies, primarily due to the limited receptive field of the convolution operation. To address this limitation, we propose a Transformer-based nonlinear transform. This transform has the remarkable ability to efficiently capture both local and global information from the input image, leading to a more decorrelated latent representation. In addition, we introduce a novel entropy model that incorporates two different hyperpriors to model cross-channel and spatial dependencies of the latent representation. To further improve the entropy model, we add a global context that leverages distant relationships to predict the current latent more accurately. This global context employs a causal attention mechanism to extract long-range information in a content-dependent manner. Our experiments show that our proposed framework performs better than the state-of-the-art methods in terms of rate-distortion performance., Comment: Accepted to IEEE 22$^nd$ International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications 2023 (ICMLA) - Selected for Oral Presentation

Missions studying the dynamic behaviour of the Sun are defined to capture multi-spectral images of the sun and transmit them to the ground station in a daily basis. To make transmission efficient and feasible, image compression systems need to be exploited. Recently successful end-to-end optimized neural network-based image compression systems have shown great potential to be used in an ad-hoc manner. In this work we have proposed a transformer-based multi-spectral neural image compressor to efficiently capture redundancies both intra/inter-wavelength. To unleash the locality of window-based self attention mechanism, we propose an inter-window aggregated token multi head self attention. Additionally to make the neural compressor autoencoder shift invariant, a randomly shifted window attention mechanism is used which makes the transformer blocks insensitive to translations in their input domain. We demonstrate that the proposed approach not only outperforms the conventional compression algorithms but also it is able to better decorrelates images along the multiple wavelengths compared to single spectral compression., Comment: Accepted to IEEE 22$^{nd}$ International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications 2023 (ICMLA)

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission collects large data volumes of the Sun's daily activity. Data compression is crucial for space missions to reduce data storage and video bandwidth requirements by eliminating redundancies in the data. In this paper, we present a novel neural Transformer-based video compression approach specifically designed for the SDO images. Our primary objective is to efficiently exploit the temporal and spatial redundancies inherent in solar images to obtain a high compression ratio. Our proposed architecture benefits from a novel Transformer block called Fused Local-aware Window (FLaWin), which incorporates window-based self-attention modules and an efficient fused local-aware feed-forward (FLaFF) network. This architectural design allows us to simultaneously capture short-range and long-range information while facilitating the extraction of rich and diverse contextual representations. Moreover, this design choice results in reduced computational complexity. Experimental results demonstrate the significant contribution of the FLaWin Transformer block to the compression performance, outperforming conventional hand-engineered video codecs such as H.264 and H.265 in terms of rate-distortion trade-off., Comment: Accepted to IEEE 22$^{nd}$ International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications 2023 (ICMLA) - Selected for Oral Presentation

Space weather indices are used commonly to drive forecasts of thermosphere density, which directly affects objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO) through atmospheric drag. One of the most commonly used space weather proxies, $F_{10.7 cm}$, correlates well with solar extreme ultra-violet (EUV) energy deposition into the thermosphere. Currently, the USAF contracts Space Environment Technologies (SET), which uses a linear algorithm to forecast $F_{10.7 cm}$. In this work, we introduce methods using neural network ensembles with multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) and long-short term memory (LSTMs) to improve on the SET predictions. We make predictions only from historical $F_{10.7 cm}$ values, but also investigate data manipulation to improve forecasting. We investigate data manipulation methods (backwards averaging and lookback) as well as multi step and dynamic forecasting. This work shows an improvement over the baseline when using ensemble methods. The best models found in this work are ensemble approaches using multi step or a combination of multi step and dynamic predictions. Nearly all approaches offer an improvement, with the best models improving between 45 and 55\% on relative MSE. Other relative error metrics were shown to improve greatly when ensembles methods were used. We were also able to leverage the ensemble approach to provide a distribution of predicted values; allowing an investigation into forecast uncertainty. Our work found models that produced less biased predictions at elevated and high solar activity levels. Uncertainty was also investigated through the use of a calibration error score metric (CES), our best ensemble reached similar CES as other work., Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures, 5 Tables

The geospace environment is volatile and highly driven. Space weather has effects on Earth's magnetosphere that cause a dynamic and enigmatic response in the thermosphere, particularly on the evolution of neutral mass density. Many models exist that use space weather drivers to produce a density response, but these models are typically computationally expensive or inaccurate for certain space weather conditions. In response, this work aims to employ a probabilistic machine learning (ML) method to create an efficient surrogate for the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), a physics-based thermosphere model. Our method leverages principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of TIE-GCM and recurrent neural networks to model the dynamic behavior of the thermosphere much quicker than the numerical model. The newly developed reduced order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) uses Long-Short Term Memory neural networks to perform time-series forecasting in the reduced state and provide distributions for future density. We show that across the available data, TIE-GCM ROPE has similar error to previous linear approaches while improving storm-time modeling. We also conduct a satellite propagation study for the significant November 2003 storm which shows that TIE-GCM ROPE can capture the position resulting from TIE-GCM density with < 5 km bias. Simultaneously, linear approaches provide point estimates that can result in biases of 7 - 18 km.

For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space situational awareness activities such as the satellite conjunction analysis. This paper investigates the evolution of orbit error distribution in the presence of atmospheric density uncertainties, which are modeled using probabilistic machine learning techniques. The recently proposed HASDM-ML, CHAMP-ML, and MSIS-UQ machine learning models for density estimation are used in this work. The investigation is convoluted because of the spatial and temporal correlation of the atmospheric density values. We develop several Monte Carlo methods, each capturing a different spatiotemporal density correlation, to study the effects of density uncertainty on orbit uncertainty propagation. However, Monte Carlo analysis is computationally expensive, so a faster method based on the Kalman filtering technique for orbit uncertainty propagation is also explored. It is difficult to translate the uncertainty in atmospheric density to the uncertainty in orbital states under a standard extended Kalman filter or unscented Kalman filter framework. This work uses the so-called consider covariance sigma point (CCSP) filter that can account for the density uncertainties during orbit propagation. As a test-bed for validation purposes, a comparison between CCSP and Monte Carlo methods of orbit uncertainty propagation is carried out. Finally, using the HASDM-ML, CHAMP-ML, and MSIS-UQ density models, we propose an ensemble approach for orbit uncertainty quantification for four different space weather conditions.

Ambitious satellite constellation projects by commercial entities and the ease of access to space in recent times have led to a dramatic proliferation of low-Earth space traffic. It jeopardizes space safety and long-term sustainability, necessitating better space traffic management (STM). Correct modeling of uncertainties in force models and orbital states, among other things, is an essential part of STM. For objects in the low-Earth orbit (LEO) region, the uncertainty in the orbital dynamics mainly emanate from limited knowledge of the atmospheric drag-related parameters and variables. In this paper, which extends the work by Paul et al. [2021], we develop a feed-forward deep neural network model for the prediction of the satellite drag coefficient for the full range of satellite attitude (i.e., satellite pitch $\in$ ($-90^0$, $+90^0$) and satellite yaw $\in$ ($0^0$, $+360^0$)). The model simultaneously predicts the mean and the standard deviation and is well-calibrated. We use numerically simulated physical drag coefficient data for training our neural network. The numerical simulations are carried out using the test particle Monte Carlo method using the diffuse reflection with incomplete accommodation gas-surface interaction model. Modeling is carried out for the well-known CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) satellite. Finally, we use the Monte Carlo approach to propagate CHAMP over a three-day period under various modeling scenarios to investigate the distribution of radial, in-track, and cross-track orbital errors caused by drag coefficient uncertainty.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission gathers 1.4 terabytes of data each day from its geosynchronous orbit in space. SDO data includes images of the Sun captured at different wavelengths, with the primary scientific goal of understanding the dynamic processes governing the Sun. Recently, end-to-end optimized artificial neural networks (ANN) have shown great potential in performing image compression. ANN-based compression schemes have outperformed conventional hand-engineered algorithms for lossy and lossless image compression. We have designed an ad-hoc ANN-based image compression scheme to reduce the amount of data needed to be stored and retrieved on space missions studying solar dynamics. In this work, we propose an attention module to make use of both local and non-local attention mechanisms in an adversarially trained neural image compression network. We have also demonstrated the superior perceptual quality of this neural image compressor. Our proposed algorithm for compressing images downloaded from the SDO spacecraft performs better in rate-distortion trade-off than the popular currently-in-use image compression codecs such as JPEG and JPEG2000. In addition we have shown that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the art lossy transform coding compression codec, i.e., BPG., Comment: Accepted to IEEE 21$^{st}$ International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications 2022 (ICMLA) - Selected for Oral Presentation

The Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar (MSIS) model family has been developed and improved since the early 1970's. The most recent version of MSIS is the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) MSIS 2.0 empirical atmospheric model. NRLMSIS 2.0 provides species density, mass density, and temperature estimates as function of location and space weather conditions. MSIS models have long been a popular choice of atmosphere model in the research and operations community alike, but - like many models - does not provide uncertainty estimates. In this work, we develop an exospheric temperature model based in machine learning (ML) that can be used with NRLMSIS 2.0 to calibrate it relative to high-fidelity satellite density estimates. Instead of providing point estimates, our model (called MSIS-UQ) outputs a distribution which is assessed using a metric called the calibration error score. We show that MSIS-UQ debiases NRLMSIS 2.0 resulting in reduced differences between model and satellite density of 25% and is 11% closer to satellite density than the Space Force's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. We also show the model's uncertainty estimation capabilities by generating altitude profiles for species density, mass density, and temperature. This explicitly demonstrates how exospheric temperature probabilities affect density and temperature profiles within NRLMSIS 2.0. Another study displays improved post-storm overcooling capabilities relative to NRLMSIS 2.0 alone, enhancing the phenomena that it can capture.

Machine learning (ML) is often viewed as a black-box regression technique that is unable to provide considerable scientific insight. ML models are universal function approximators and - if used correctly - can provide scientific information related to the ground-truth dataset used for fitting. A benefit to ML over parametric models is that there are no predefined basis functions limiting the phenomena that can be modeled. In this work, we develop ML models on three datasets: the Space Environment Technologies (SET) High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) density database, a spatiotemporally matched dataset of outputs from the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 Empirical Thermospheric Density Model (JB2008), and an accelerometer-derived density dataset from CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP). These ML models are compared to the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar (NRLMSIS 2.0) model to study the presence of post-storm cooling in the middle-thermosphere. We find that both NRLMSIS 2.0 and JB2008-ML do not account for post-storm cooling and consequently perform poorly in periods following strong geomagnetic storms (e.g. the 2003 Halloween storms). Conversely, HASDM-ML and CHAMP-ML do show evidence of post-storm cooling indicating that this phenomenon is present in the original datasets. Results show that density reductions up to 40% can occur 1--3 days post-storm depending on location and the strength of the storm.

Machine learning (ML) has often been applied to space weather (SW) problems in recent years. SW originates from solar perturbations and is comprised of the resulting complex variations they cause within the systems between the Sun and Earth. These systems are tightly coupled and not well understood. This creates a need for skillful models with knowledge about the confidence of their predictions. One example of such a dynamical system is the thermosphere, the neutral region of Earth's upper atmosphere. Our inability to forecast it has severe repercussions in the context of satellite drag and collision avoidance operations for objects in low Earth orbit. Even with (assumed) perfect driver forecasts, our incomplete knowledge of the system results in often inaccurate neutral mass density predictions. Continuing efforts are being made to improve model accuracy, but density models rarely provide estimates of uncertainty. In this work, we propose two techniques to develop nonlinear ML models to predict thermospheric density while providing calibrated uncertainty estimates: Monte Carlo (MC) dropout and direct prediction of the probability distribution, both using the negative logarithm of predictive density (NLPD) loss function. We show the performance for models trained on local and global datasets. This shows that NLPD provides similar results for both techniques but the direct probability method has a much lower computational cost. For the global model regressed on the SET HASDM density database, we achieve errors of 11% on independent test data with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Using an in-situ CHAMP density dataset, both techniques provide test error on the order of 13%. The CHAMP models (on independent data) are within 2% of perfect calibration for all prediction intervals tested. This model can also be used to obtain global predictions with uncertainties at a given epoch.

Satellites, crewed spacecraft and stations in low-Earth orbit (LEO) are very sensitive to atmospheric drag. A satellite's lifetime and orbital tracking become increasingly inaccurate or uncertain during magnetic storms. Given the planned increase of government and private satellite presence in LEO, the need for accurate density predictions for collision avoidance and lifetime optimization, particularly during extreme events, has become an urgent matter and requires comprehensive international collaboration. Additionally, long-term solar activity models and historical data suggest that solar activity will significantly increase in the following years and decades. In this article, we briefly summarize the main achievements in the research of thermosphere response to extreme magnetic storms occurring particularly after the launching of many satellites with state-of-the-art accelerometers from which high-accuracy density can be determined. We find that the performance of an empirical model with data assimilation is higher than its performance without data assimilation during all extreme storm phases. We discuss how forecasting models can be improved by looking into two directions: first, to the past, by adapting historical extreme storm datasets for density predictions, and second, to the future, by facilitating the assimilation of large-scale thermosphere data sets that will be collected in future events. Therefore, this topic is relevant to the scientific community, government agencies that operate satellites, and the private sector with assets operating in LEO., Comment: 14 pages, 2 figures

The first thermospheric neutral mass density model with robust and reliable uncertainty estimates is developed based on the SET HASDM density database. This database, created by Space Environment Technologies (SET), contains 20 years of outputs from the U.S. Space Force's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM), which represents the state-of-the-art for density and drag modeling. We utilize principal component analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction, creating the coefficients upon which nonlinear machine-learned (ML) regression models are trained. These models use three unique loss functions: mean square error (MSE), negative logarithm of predictive density (NLPD), and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Three input sets are also tested, showing improved performance when introducing time histories for geomagnetic indices. These models leverage Monte Carlo (MC) dropout to provide uncertainty estimates, and the use of the NLPD loss function results in well-calibrated uncertainty estimates without sacrificing model accuracy (<10% mean absolute error). By comparing the best HASDM-ML model to the HASDM database along satellite orbits, we found that the model provides robust and reliable uncertainties in the density space over all space weather conditions. A storm-time comparison shows that HASDM-ML also supplies meaningful uncertainty measurements during extreme events.

Space weather indices are commonly used to drive operational forecasts of various geospace systems, including the thermosphere for mass density and satellite drag. The drivers serve as proxies for various processes that cause energy flow and deposition in the geospace system. Forecasts of neutral mass density is a major uncertainty in operational orbit prediction and collision avoidance for objects in low earth orbit (LEO). For the strongly driven system, accuracy of space weather driver forecasts is crucial for operations. The High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) currently employed by the United States Air Force in an operational environment is driven by four (4) solar and two (2) geomagnetic proxies. Space Environment Technologies (SET) is contracted by the space command to provide forecasts for the drivers. This work performs a comprehensive assessment for the performance of the driver forecast models. The goal is to provide a benchmark for future improvements of the forecast models. Using an archived data set spanning six (6) years and 15,000 forecasts across solar cycle 24, we quantify the temporal statistics of the model performance.

In this paper, we demonstrate a new data-driven framework for real-time neutral density estimation via model-data fusion in quasi-physical ionosphere-thermosphere models. The framework has two main components: (i) the development of a quasi-physical dynamic reduced order model (ROM) that uses a linear approximation of the underlying dynamics and effect of the drivers, and (ii) dynamic calibration of the ROM through estimation of the ROM coefficients that represent the model parameters. We have previously demonstrated the development of a quasi-physical ROM using simulation output from a physical model and assimilation of non-operational density estimates derived from accelerometer measurements along a single orbit. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of the framework for use with operational measurements. We use simulated GPS-derived orbit ephemerides with 5 minute resolution as measurements. The framework is a first of its kind, simple yet robust and accurate method with high potential for providing real-time operational updates to the state of the upper atmosphere using quasi-physical models with inherent forecasting/predictive capabilities.

Accurate specification and prediction of the ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) environment, driven by external forcing, is crucial to the space community. In this work, we present a new transformative framework for data assimilation and calibration of the physical IT models. The framework has two main components: (i) the development of a quasi-physical dynamic reduced order model (ROM) that uses a linear approximation of the underlying dynamics and effect of the drivers, and (ii) data assimilation and calibration of the ROM through estimation of the ROM coefficients that represent the model parameters. A reduced order surrogate for thermospheric mass density from the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) was developed in previous work. This work concentrates on the second component of the framework - data assimilation and calibration of the TIE-GCM ROM. The new framework has two major advantages: (i) a dynamic ROM that combines the speed of empirical models for real-time capabilities with the predictive capabilities of physical models which has the potential to facilitate improved uncertainty quantification (UQ) using large ensembles, and (ii) estimation of model parameters rather than the driver(s)/input(s) which allows calibration of the model, thus avoiding degradation of model performance in the absence of continuous data. We validate the framework using accelerometer-derived density estimates from CHAMP and GOCE. The framework is a first of its kind, simple yet robust and accurate method with high potential for providing real-time operational updates to the state of the upper atmosphere in the context of drag modeling for Space Situational Awareness and Space Traffic Management.

Thermospheric mass density is a major driver of satellite drag, the largest source of uncertainty in accurately predicting the orbit of satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) pertinent to space situational awareness. Most existing models for thermosphere are either physics-based or empirical. Physics-based models offer the potential for good predictive/forecast capabilities but require dedicated parallel resources for real-time evaluation and data assimilative capabilities that have yet to be developed. Empirical models are fast to evaluate, but offer very limited forecasting abilities. This paper presents a methodology of developing a reduced-order dynamic model from high-dimensional physics-based models by capturing the underlying dynamical behavior. This work develops a quasi-physical reduced order model (ROM) for thermospheric mass density using simulated output from NCAR's Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circular Model (TIE-GCM). The ROM is derived using a dynamic system formulation from a large dataset of TIE-GCM simulations spanning 12 years and covering a complete solar cycle. Towards this end, a new reduced order modeling approach, based on Dynamic Mode Decomposition with control (DMDc), that uses the Hermitian space of the problem to derive the dynamics and input matrices in a tractable manner is developed. Results show that the ROM performs well in serving as a reduced order surrogate for TIE-GCM while almost always maintaining the forecast error to within 5\% of the simulated densities after 24 hours.