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In this paper we analyse the drivers of farm structural change with respect to farm specialisation, size and exit in Norway using an adapted Multiplicative Competitive Interaction (MCI) model recently presented in the field of agriculture. We use Norwegian single farm full census data for the period 1996-2015. Four production specialisations and seven size classes represent farm groups, as well as a residual and an exit farm group at regional level. The estimates indicate that initial state (path dependency) explains about 87% of Norwegian farm structural change followed by natural conditions (6.4%) and subsidies (4.9%). The results suggest a more rigid farm structure in Norway which is also apparent in the old EU Member States. Further it can be seen that the exit farm group shows a different explanatory pattern of the determinants than the other active farm groups. Acknowledgement

BIO-C3 Deliverable

Report on effects of changing predation pressure on benthic and pelagic species

Fisheries management has historically focused on the population elasticity of target fish based primarily on demographic modeling, with the key assumptions of stability in environmental conditions and static trophic relationships. The predictive capacity of this fisheries framework is poor, especially in closed systems where the benthic diversity and boundary effects are important and the stock levels are low. Here, we present a probabilistic model that couples key fish populations with a complex suite of trophic, environmental, and geomorphological factors. Using 41 years of observations we model the changes in eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus), and Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus) for the Baltic Sea within a Bayesian network. The model predictions are spatially explicit and show the changes of the central Baltic Sea from cod- to sprat-dominated ecology over the 41 years. This also highlights how the years 2004 to 2014 deviate in terms of the typical cod–environment relationship, with environmental factors such as salinity being less influential on cod population abundance than in previous periods. The role of macrozoobenthos abundance, biotopic rugosity, and flatfish biomass showed an increased influence in predicting cod biomass in the last decade of the study. Fisheries management that is able to accommodate shifting ecological and environmental conditions relevant to biotopic information will be more effective and realistic. Non-stationary modelling for all of the homogeneous biotope regions, while acknowledging that each has a specific ecology relevant to understanding the fish population dynamics, is essential for fisheries science and sustainable management of fish stocks.

How predators select their prey largely defines ecosystem trophic structure, function and dynamics. In aquatic systems, organism body size is an important trait explaining predator− prey interactions. Here, we used a unique Atlantic cod Gadus morhua stomach content dataset with diet information from over 100 000 individuals collected from the Baltic Sea in 1963−2014, to explore prey size distribution and predator−prey mass ratios in the diet of Eastern Baltic cod. Maximum and average prey sizes increased with predator size, as for cod in other systems. However, the prey size spectra found in Eastern Baltic cod stomachs reflect the low species diversity in the Baltic Sea. In general, Eastern Baltic cod feed on smaller prey in relation to their body size than other cod populations. Due to the truncated prey size distribution in the Baltic Sea, cod cannibalism functions as a compensatory mechanism that allows Baltic cod to reach their prey size potential. On the other hand, small- and intermediate-sized cod prey mainly on a few invertebrate prey species, potentially making them vulnerable to changes in these prey populations. Our results encourage further studies disentangling the relative effects of prey preference and prey availability on cod trophodynamics in species-poor systems such as the Baltic Sea.

Five decades of stomach content data allowed insight into the development of consumption, diet composition, and resulting somatic growth of Gadus morhua (Atlantic cod) in the eastern Baltic Sea. We show a recent reversal in feeding level over body length. Present feeding levels of small cod indicate severe growth limitation and increased starvation-related mortality. For young cod, the low growth rate and the high mortality rate are manifested through a reduction in size-at-age. The low feeding levels are likely the result of a decrease in benthic prey abundance due to increased hypoxic areas, while decreasing abundances of pelagic species in the area of cod distribution have prevented a compensatory shift in diet. Our study emphasizes that environmental forcing and the decline in pelagic prey caused changes in consumption and growth rates of small cod. The food reduction is amplified by stunted growth leading to high densities of cod of smaller size competing for the scarce resources. The average growth rate is negative, and only individuals with feeding levels well above average will survive, though growing slowly. These results suggest that the relation between consumption rate, somatic growth and predatorprey population densities is strongly environmentally mediated.

Investigating the factors regulating fish condition is crucial in ecology and the management of exploited fish populations. The body condition of cod ( Gadus morhua ) in the Baltic Sea has dramatically decreased during the past two decades, with large implications for the fishery relying on this resource. Here, we statistically investigated the potential drivers of the Baltic cod condition during the past 40 years using newly compiled fishery-independent biological data and hydrological observations. We evidenced a combination of different factors operating before and after the ecological regime shift that occurred in the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. The changes in cod condition related to feeding opportunities, driven either by density-dependence or food limitation, along the whole period investigated and to the fivefold increase in the extent of hypoxic areas in the most recent 20 years. Hypoxic areas can act on cod condition through different mechanisms related directly to species physiology, or indirectly to behaviour and trophic interactions. Our analyses found statistical evidence for an effect of the hypoxia-induced habitat compression on cod condition possibly operating via crowding and density-dependent processes. These results furnish novel insights into the population dynamics of Baltic Sea cod that can aid the management of this currently threatened population.