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An improved DeepSurv model is proposed for predicting the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients at stage IV. Our model, called as PseudoDeepSurv, is optimized by a novel loss function, which is the combination of the average negative log partial likelihood and the mean-squared error derived from the pseudo-observations approach. The public BioStudies dataset including 999 patients was utilized for performance evaluation. Our PseudoDeepSurv model produced a C-index of 0.684 and 0.633 on the training and testing dataset, respectively. While for the original DeepSurv model, the corresponding values are 0.671 and 0.618, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: This study introduces a deep learning model designed to predict the 5-year recurrence risk of lung adenocarcinoma based on histopathology images. Using a dataset of 189 patients with 455 histopathology slides, our model demonstrated superior performance in risk stratification, achieving a hazard ratio of 2.29 (95% CI: 1.69–3.09, p < 0.005). This outperforms several existing deep learning methods, showcasing the potential of deep learning in automatically predicting lung adenocarcinoma recurrence risk. The superior performance of this model underscores the potential for deep learning models to be integrated into clinical workflows for more accurate and automated risk assessment in lung adenocarcinoma. This could lead to more personalized treatment strategies and better patient outcomes. Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States. Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is one of the most common subtypes of lung cancer that can be treated with resection. While resection can be curative, there is a significant risk of recurrence, which necessitates close monitoring and additional treatment planning. Traditionally, microscopic evaluation of tumor grading in resected specimens is a standard pathologic practice that informs subsequent therapy and patient management. However, this approach is labor-intensive and subject to inter-observer variability. To address the challenge of accurately predicting recurrence, we propose a deep learning-based model to predict the 5-year recurrence of LUAD in patients following surgical resection. In our model, we introduce an innovative dual-attention architecture that significantly enhances computational efficiency. Our model demonstrates excellent performance in recurrent risk stratification, achieving a hazard ratio of 2.29 (95% CI: 1.69–3.09, p < 0.005), which outperforms several existing deep learning methods. This study contributes to ongoing efforts to use deep learning models for automatically learning histologic patterns from whole slide images (WSIs) and predicting LUAD recurrence risk, thereby improving the accuracy and efficiency of treatment decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background The goal is to use three different machine learning models to predict the recurrence of breast cancer across a very heterogeneous sample of patients with varying disease kinds and stages. Methods A heterogeneous group of patients with varying cancer kinds and stages, including both triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and non-triple-negative breast cancer (non-TNBC), was examined. Three distinct models were created using the following five machine learning techniques: Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Random Under-sampling Boosting (RUSBoost), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), support vector machines (SVM), and Logistic Regression. The clinical model used both clinical and pathology data in conjunction with the machine learning algorithms. The machine learning algorithms were combined with dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) imaging characteristics in the radiomic model, and the merged model combined the two types of data. Each technique was evaluated using several criteria, including the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, precision, recall, and F1 score. Results The results suggest that the integration of clinical and radiomic data improves the predictive accuracy in identifying instances of breast cancer recurrence. The XGBoost algorithm is widely recognized as the most effective algorithm in terms of performance. Conclusion The findings presented in this study offer significant contributions to the field of breast cancer research, particularly in relation to the prediction of cancer recurrence. These insights hold great potential for informing future investigations and clinical interventions that seek to enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of recurrence prediction in breast cancer patients.

Abstract Background Although radical surgical resection is the most effective treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the high rate of postoperative recurrence remains a major challenge, especially in patients with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)-negative HCC who lack effective biomarkers for postoperative recurrence surveillance. Emerging radiomics can reveal subtle structural changes in tumors by analyzing preoperative contrast-enhanced computer tomography (CECT) imaging data and may provide new ways to predict early recurrence (recurrence within 2 years) in AFP-negative HCC. In this study, we propose to develop a radiomics model based on preoperative CECT to predict the risk of early recurrence after surgery in AFP-negative HCC. Patients and methods Patients with AFP-negative HCC who underwent radical resection were included in this study. A computerized tool was used to extract radiomic features from the tumor region of interest (ROI), select the best radiographic features associated with patient’s postoperative recurrence, and use them to construct the radiomics score (RadScore), which was then combined with clinical and follow-up information to comprehensively evaluate the reliability of the model. Results A total of 148 patients with AFP-negative HCC were enrolled in this study, and 1,977 radiographic features were extracted from CECT, 2 of which were the features most associated with recurrence in AFP-negative HCC. They had good predictive ability in both the training and validation cohorts, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.709 and 0.764, respectively. Tumor number, microvascular invasion (MVI), AGPR and radiomic features were independent risk factors for early postoperative recurrence in patients with AFP-negative HCC. The AUCs of the integrated model in the training and validation cohorts were 0.793 and 0.791, respectively. The integrated model possessed the clinical value of predicting early postoperative recurrence in patients with AFP-negative HCC according to decision curve analysis, which allowed the classification of patients into subgroups of high-risk and low-risk for early recurrence. Conclusion The nomogram constructed by combining clinical and imaging features has favorable performance in predicting the probability of early postoperative recurrence in AFP-negative HCC patients, which can help optimize the therapeutic decision-making and prognostic assessment of AFP-negative HCC patients.

Objective: To create a recurrence prediction value (RPV) of high-risk factor and identify the patients with high risk of cancer recurrence. Background: There are several high-risk factors known to lead to poor outcomes. Weighting each high-risk factor based on their association with increased risk of cancer recurrence can provide a more precise understanding of risk of recurrence. Methods: We performed a multi-institutional international retrospective analysis of patients with stage II colon cancer patients who underwent surgery from 2010 to 2020. Patient data from a multi-institutional database were used as the Training data, and data from a completely separate international database from 2 countries were used as the Validation data. The primary endpoint was recurrence-free survival. Results: A total of 739 patients were included from Training data. To validate the feasibility of RPV, 467 patients were included from Validation data. Training data patients were divided into RPV low (n =564) and RPV high (n= 175). Multivariate analysis revealed that risk of recurrence was significantly higher in the RPV high than the RPV low [hazard ratio (HR) 2.628; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.887-3.660; P< 0.001). Validation data patients were divided into 2 groups (RPV low, n =420) and RPV high (n=47). Multivariate analysis revealed that risk of recurrence was significantly higher in the RPV high than the RPV low (HR 3.053; 95% CI 1.962-4.750; P<0.001). Conclusions: RPV can identify stage II colon cancer patients with high risk of cancer recurrence worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We developed a deep learning model for distinguishing radiation therapy (RT)-related changes and tumour recurrence in patients with lung cancer who underwent RT, and evaluated its performance. Methods: We retrospectively recruited 308 patients with lung cancer with RT-related changes observed on 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography–computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) performed after RT. Patients were labelled as positive or negative for tumour recurrence through histologic diagnosis or clinical follow-up after 18F-FDG PET/CT. A two-dimensional (2D) slice-based convolutional neural network (CNN) model was created with a total of 3329 slices as input, and performance was evaluated with five independent test sets. Results: For the five independent test sets, the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were in the range of 0.98–0.99, 95–98%, and 87–95%, respectively. The region determined by the model was confirmed as an actual recurred tumour through the explainable artificial intelligence (AI) using gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM). Conclusion: The 2D slice-based CNN model using 18F-FDG PET imaging was able to distinguish well between RT-related changes and tumour recurrence in patients with lung cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The goal is to use three different machine learning models to predict the recurrence of breast cancer across a very heterogeneous sample of patients with varying disease kinds and stages. Methods: A heterogeneous group of patients with varying cancer kinds and stages, including both triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and non-triple-negative breast cancer (non-TNBC), was examined. Three distinct models were created using the following five machine learning techniques: Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Random Under-sampling Boosting (RUSBoost), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), support vector machines (SVM), and Logistic Regression. The clinical model used both clinical and pathology data in conjunction with the machine learning algorithms. The machine learning algorithms were combined with dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) imaging characteristics in the radiomic model, and the merged model combined the two types of data. Each technique was evaluated using several criteria, including the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, precision, recall, and F1 score. Results: The results suggest that the integration of clinical and radiomic data improves the predictive accuracy in identifying instances of breast cancer recurrence. The XGBoost algorithm is widely recognized as the most effective algorithm in terms of performance. Conclusion: The findings presented in this study offer significant contributions to the field of breast cancer research, particularly in relation to the prediction of cancer recurrence. These insights hold great potential for informing future investigations and clinical interventions that seek to enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of recurrence prediction in breast cancer patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although radical surgical resection is the most effective treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the high rate of postoperative recurrence remains a major challenge, especially in patients with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)-negative HCC who lack effective biomarkers for postoperative recurrence surveillance. Emerging radiomics can reveal subtle structural changes in tumors by analyzing preoperative contrast-enhanced computer tomography (CECT) imaging data and may provide new ways to predict early recurrence (recurrence within 2 years) in AFP-negative HCC. In this study, we propose to develop a radiomics model based on preoperative CECT to predict the risk of early recurrence after surgery in AFP-negative HCC. Patients and methods: Patients with AFP-negative HCC who underwent radical resection were included in this study. A computerized tool was used to extract radiomic features from the tumor region of interest (ROI), select the best radiographic features associated with patient's postoperative recurrence, and use them to construct the radiomics score (RadScore), which was then combined with clinical and follow-up information to comprehensively evaluate the reliability of the model. Results: A total of 148 patients with AFP-negative HCC were enrolled in this study, and 1,977 radiographic features were extracted from CECT, 2 of which were the features most associated with recurrence in AFP-negative HCC. They had good predictive ability in both the training and validation cohorts, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.709 and 0.764, respectively. Tumor number, microvascular invasion (MVI), AGPR and radiomic features were independent risk factors for early postoperative recurrence in patients with AFP-negative HCC. The AUCs of the integrated model in the training and validation cohorts were 0.793 and 0.791, respectively. The integrated model possessed the clinical value of predicting early postoperative recurrence in patients with AFP-negative HCC according to decision curve analysis, which allowed the classification of patients into subgroups of high-risk and low-risk for early recurrence. Conclusion: The nomogram constructed by combining clinical and imaging features has favorable performance in predicting the probability of early postoperative recurrence in AFP-negative HCC patients, which can help optimize the therapeutic decision-making and prognostic assessment of AFP-negative HCC patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundDifferentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the most prevalent endocrine malignancy with a recurrence rate of about 20%, necessitating better predictive methods for patient management. This study aims to create a relational classification model to predict DTC recurrence by integrating clinical, pathological, and follow-up data.MethodsThe balanced dataset comprises 550 DTC samples collected over 15 years, featuring 13 clinicopathological variables. To address the class imbalance in recurrence status, the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique for Nominal and Continuous (SMOTE-NC) was utilized. A hybrid model combining classification algorithms with association rule mining was developed. Two relational classification approaches, regularized class association rules (RCAR) and classification based on association rules (CBAR), were implemented. Binomial logistic regression analyzed independent predictors of recurrence. Model performance was assessed through accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 score.ResultsThe RCAR model demonstrated superior performance over the CBAR model, achieving accuracy, sensitivity, and F1 score of 96.7%, 93.1%, and 96.7%, respectively. Association rules highlighted that papillary pathology with an incomplete response strongly predicted recurrence. The combination of incomplete response and lymphadenopathy was also a significant predictor. Conversely, the absence of adenopathy and complete response to treatment were linked to freedom from recurrence. Incomplete structural response was identified as a critical predictor of recurrence risk, even with other low-recurrence conditions.ConclusionThis study introduces a robust and interpretable predictive model that enhances personalized medicine in thyroid cancer care. The model effectively identifies high-risk individuals, allowing for tailored follow-up strategies that could improve patient outcomes and optimize resource allocation in DTC management.

Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is the most common histologic subtype of lung cancer. Early-stage patients have a 30–50% probability of metastatic recurrence after surgical treatment. Here, we propose a new computational framework, Interpretable Biological Pathway Graph Neural Networks (IBPGNET), based on pathway hierarchy relationships to predict LUAD recurrence and explore the internal regulatory mechanisms of LUAD. IBPGNET can integrate different omics data efficiently and provide global interpretability. In addition, our experimental results show that IBPGNET outperforms other classification methods in 5-fold cross-validation. IBPGNET identified PSMC1 and PSMD11 as genes associated with LUAD recurrence, and their expression levels were significantly higher in LUAD cells than in normal cells. The knockdown of PSMC1 and PSMD11 in LUAD cells increased their sensitivity to afatinib and decreased cell migration, invasion and proliferation. In addition, the cells showed significantly lower EGFR expression, indicating that PSMC1 and PSMD11 may mediate therapeutic sensitivity through EGFR expression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background To predict, using deep learning, the first recurrence in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) after three monthly loading injections of intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF). Methods Optical coherence tomography (OCT) images were obtained at baseline and after the loading phase. The first recurrence was defined as the initial appearance of a new retinal hemorrhage or intra/subretinal fluid accumulation after the initial resolution of exudative changes after three loading injections. Standard U-Net architecture was used to identify the three retinal fluid compartments, which include pigment epithelial detachment, subretinal fluid, and intraretinal fluid. To predict the first recurrence of nAMD, classification learning was conducted to determine whether the first recurrence occurred within three months after the loading phase. The recurrence classification architecture was built using ResNet50. The model with retinal regions of interest of the entire region and fluid region on OCT at baseline and after the loading phase is presented. Results A total of 1,444 eyes of 1,302 patients were included. The mean duration until the first recurrence after the loading phase was 8.20 ± 15.56 months. The recurrence classification system revealed that the model with the fluid region of OCT after the loading phase provided the highest classification performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.725 ± 0.012. Heatmap analysis revealed that three pathological fluids, subsided choroidal neovascularization lesions, and hyperreflective foci were important areas for the first recurrence. Conclusions The deep learning algorithm allowed for the prediction of the first recurrence for three months after the loading phase with adequate feasibility. An automated prediction system may assist in establishing patient-specific treatment plans and the provision of individualized medical care for patients with nAMD.

The incidence of left atrial (LA) supraventricular arrhythmias is increasing. Even after LA ablation, recurrence of these tachycardias is common. MRI studies show that LA cardiomyopathy is a significant risk factor for recurrence and correlates with low voltage areas detected via 3D electroanatomic mapping (EAM). There are limited data on the impact of low voltage extent detected by EAM on recurrence-free survival. Voltage thresholds defining low voltage vary across different studies. This study aims to investigate the impact of the extent of low voltage areas in the LA on recurrence-free survival and to assess whether defining low voltage areas using thresholds of 0.5, 0.4, or 0.3 mV offers better predictive performance. Patients with atrial arrhythmia who underwent LA EAM at Ulm University Heart Center between September 2018 and September 2022 were included from the ATRIUM registry. ROC analysis determined the voltage threshold for predicting recurrence-free survival. Kaplan–Meier and logistic regression models adjusted for patient variables were used to analyze recurrence-free survival. Of 1089 screened patients, 108 met the inclusion criteria. ROC analysis indicated that a 0.4 mV threshold for low voltage provided the best predictive performance. Logistic regression showed a 1.039-fold increase in recurrence risk per percent increase in LA low voltage area (odds ratio = 1.039, 95% CI 1.014–1.064). Low voltage extent in EAM correlates with 1-year recurrence rate after ablation of left atrial supraventricular arrhythmias. The threshold of 0.4 mV is the most suitable for predicting recurrences of those examined.

Background: To predict, using deep learning, the first recurrence in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) after three monthly loading injections of intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF). Methods: Optical coherence tomography (OCT) images were obtained at baseline and after the loading phase. The first recurrence was defined as the initial appearance of a new retinal hemorrhage or intra/subretinal fluid accumulation after the initial resolution of exudative changes after three loading injections. Standard U-Net architecture was used to identify the three retinal fluid compartments, which include pigment epithelial detachment, subretinal fluid, and intraretinal fluid. To predict the first recurrence of nAMD, classification learning was conducted to determine whether the first recurrence occurred within three months after the loading phase. The recurrence classification architecture was built using ResNet50. The model with retinal regions of interest of the entire region and fluid region on OCT at baseline and after the loading phase is presented. Results: A total of 1,444 eyes of 1,302 patients were included. The mean duration until the first recurrence after the loading phase was 8.20 ± 15.56 months. The recurrence classification system revealed that the model with the fluid region of OCT after the loading phase provided the highest classification performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.725 ± 0.012. Heatmap analysis revealed that three pathological fluids, subsided choroidal neovascularization lesions, and hyperreflective foci were important areas for the first recurrence. Conclusions: The deep learning algorithm allowed for the prediction of the first recurrence for three months after the loading phase with adequate feasibility. An automated prediction system may assist in establishing patient-specific treatment plans and the provision of individualized medical care for patients with nAMD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and early prediction of breast cancer recurrence is crucial to guide medical decisions and treatment success. Machine learning (ML) has shown promise in this domain. However, its effectiveness critically depends on proper hyperparameter setting, a step that is not always performed systematically in the development of ML models. In this study, we aimed to highlight the impact that this process has on the final performance of ML models through a real-world case study by predicting the five-year recurrence of breast cancer patients. We compared the performance of five ML algorithms (Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting, eXtreme Gradient Boost, and Deep Neural Network) before and after optimizing their hyperparameters. Simpler algorithms showed better performance using the default hyperparameters. However, after the optimization process, the more complex algorithms demonstrated superior performance. The AUCs obtained before and after adjustment were 0.7 vs. 0.84 for XGB, 0.64 vs. 0.75 for DNN, 0.7 vs. 0.8 for GB, 0.62 vs. 0.7 for DT, and 0.77 vs. 0.72 for LR. The results underscore the critical importance of hyperparameter selection in the development of ML algorithms for the prediction of cancer recurrence. Neglecting this step can undermine the potential of more powerful algorithms and lead to the choice of suboptimal models.

Background and purpose: Radiomic features from MRI and PET are an emerging tool with potential to improve prostate cancer outcomes. However, feature robustness due to image segmentation variations is currently unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the robustness of radiomic features with segmentation variations and their impact on predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR). Materials and methods: Multi-scanner, pre-radiation therapy imaging from 142 patients with localised prostate cancer was used. Imaging included T2-weighted (T2), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) MRI, and prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-PET. The prostate gland and intraprostatic tumours were manually and automatically segmented, and differences were quantified using Dice Coefficient (DC). Radiomic features including shape, first-order, and texture features were extracted for each segmentation from original and filtered images. Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Mean Absolute Percentage Difference (MAPD) were used to assess feature robustness. Random forest (RF) models were developed for each segmentation using robust features to predict BCR. Results: Prostate gland segmentations were more consistent (mean DC = 0.78) than tumour segmentations (mean DC = 0.46). 112 (3.6 %) radiomic features demonstrated ‘excellent’ robustness (ICC > 0.9 and MAPD 0.75 and MAPD

Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the value of a machine learning-based magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics model in predicting the risk of recurrence within 1 year following an acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods: The MRI and clinical data of 612 patients diagnosed with AIS at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from March 1, 2019, to March 5, 2021, were obtained. The patients were divided into recurrence and non-recurrence groups according to whether they had a recurrent stroke within 1 year after discharge. Randomized splitting was used to divide the data into training and validation sets using a ratio of 7:3. Two radiologists used the 3D-slicer software to label the lesions on brain diffusion-weighted (DWI) MRI sequences. Radiomics features were extracted from the annotated images using the pyradiomics software package, and the features were filtered using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression analysis. Four machine learning algorithms, logistic regression (LR), Support Vector Classification (SVC), LightGBM, and Random forest (RF), were used to construct a recurrence prediction model. For each algorithm, three models were constructed based on the MRI radiomics features, clinical features, and combined MRI radiomics and clinical features. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were used to compare the predictive efficacy of the models. Results: Twenty features were selected from 1,037 radiomics features extracted from DWI images. The LightGBM model based on data with three different features achieved the best prediction accuracy from all 4 models in the validation set. The LightGBM model based solely on radiomics features achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of 0.65, 0.671, and 0.647, respectively, and the model based on clinical data achieved a sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of 0.7, 0.799, 0.735, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of the LightGBM model base on both radiomics and clinical features achieved the best performance with a sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of 0.85, 0.805, 0.789, respectively. Conclusion: The ischemic stroke recurrence prediction model based on LightGBM achieved the best prediction of recurrence within 1 year following an AIS. The combination of MRI radiomics features and clinical data improved the prediction performance of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease characterized by different risks of relapse, which makes it challenging to predict progression and select the most appropriate follow-up strategies. With the ever-growing adoption of Electronic Health Records, there are great opportunities to leverage the amount of data collected routinely in electronic format for secondary purposes. Machine Learning algorithms offer the ability to analyze large amounts of data and reveal insights that might otherwise go undetected. In this study, we have applied several algorithms to predict 5-year breast cancer recurrence from health data. We compared whether taking advantage of both structured and unstructured data from health records yields better prediction results than using any of the sources separately. These algorithms are valuable tools to help clinicians effectively integrate large amounts of data into their decision-making and are key to improving risk stratification and providing personalized assistance to patients. Recurrence is a critical aspect of breast cancer (BC) that is inexorably tied to mortality. Reuse of healthcare data through Machine Learning (ML) algorithms offers great opportunities to improve the stratification of patients at risk of cancer recurrence. We hypothesized that combining features from structured and unstructured sources would provide better prediction results for 5-year cancer recurrence than either source alone. We collected and preprocessed clinical data from a cohort of BC patients, resulting in 823 valid subjects for analysis. We derived three sets of features: structured information, features from free text, and a combination of both. We evaluated the performance of five ML algorithms to predict 5-year cancer recurrence and selected the best-performing to test our hypothesis. The XGB (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) model yielded the best performance among the five evaluated algorithms, with precision = 0.900, recall = 0.907, F1-score = 0.897, and area under the receiver operating characteristic AUROC = 0.807. The best prediction results were achieved with the structured dataset, followed by the unstructured dataset, while the combined dataset achieved the poorest performance. ML algorithms for BC recurrence prediction are valuable tools to improve patient risk stratification, help with post-cancer monitoring, and plan more effective follow-up. Structured data provides the best results when fed to ML algorithms. However, an approach based on natural language processing offers comparable results while potentially requiring less mapping effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lung cancer recurrence seems to be the most leading cause of death as well as deterioration of lifespan. Proper assessment of the probability of recurrence in early-stage lung cancer is necessary to push up the treatment progress. We therefore employed machine-learning technologies to forecast post-operative recurrence risks using 174 lung cancer patient records. Six classification algorithms logistic regression, SVM, decision tree classification, random forest classification, XGBoost and lightGBM were used to predict the cancer recurrence. The patient samples were divided into training and test group with the split ratio of 3:1 for model generation and the accuracy were validated using k-fold cross-validation method. It is worth noting that the logistic regression model outperformed all the models in both training (Accuracy = 0.82) and test set (Accuracy = 0.79) on k-fold validation. Further, the optimal features (n = 7) identified using the RFE method is certainly helpful to improve the model in a high precision. The imperative risk factors associated with recurrence were identified using three feature selection methods. Importantly, our research showed that age is an important prognostic factor to be considered during the recurrence prediction. Indeed, severe concern on the identified risk factors combined with predictive models assists the physician to reduce the cancer recurrence rate in patients with lung cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated an approach for predicting recurrence after radiation therapy using local binary pattern (LBP)-based dosiomics in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Recurrence/non-recurrence data were collected from 131 patients after intensity-modulated radiation therapy. The cases were divided into training (80%) and test (20%) datasets. A total of 327 dosiomics features, including cold spot volume, first-order features, and texture features, were extracted from the original dose distribution (ODD) and LBP on gross tumor volume, clinical target volume, and planning target volume. The CoxNet algorithm was employed in the training dataset for feature selection and dosiomics signature construction. Based on a dosiomics score (DS)-based Cox proportional hazard model, two recurrence prediction models (DSODD and DSLBP) were constructed using the ODD and LBP dosiomics features. These models were used to evaluate the overall adequacy of the recurrence prediction using the concordance index (CI), and the prediction performance was assessed based on the accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The CIs for the test dataset were 0.71 and 0.76 for DSODD and DSLBP, respectively. The accuracy and AUC for the test dataset were 0.71 and 0.76 for the DSODD model and 0.79 and 0.81 for the DSLBP model, respectively. LBP-based dosiomics models may be more accurate in predicting recurrence after radiation therapy in patients with HNSCC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ObjectivesTo evaluate the efficacy of the Cox-Maze IV procedure (CMP-IV) in combination with valve surgery in patients with both atrial fibrillation (AF) and valvular disease and use machine learning algorithms to identify potential risk factors of AF recurrence.MethodsA total of 1,026 patients with AF and valvular disease from two hospitals were included in the study. 555 patients received the CMP-IV procedure in addition to valve surgery and left atrial appendage ligation (CMP-IV group), while 471 patients only received valve surgery and left atrial appendage ligation (Non-CMP-IV group). Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to calculate the sinus rhythm maintenance rate. 58 variables were selected as variables for each group and 10 machine learning models were developed respectively. The performance of the models was evaluated using five-fold cross-validation and metrics including F1 score, accuracy, precision, and recall. The four best-performing models for each group were selected for further analysis, including feature importance evaluation and SHAP analysis.ResultsThe 5-year sinus rhythm maintenance rate in the CMP-IV group was 82.13% (95% CI: 78.51%, 85.93%), while in the Non-CMP-IV group, it was 13.40% (95% CI: 10.44%, 17.20%). The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), LightGBM, Category Boosting (CatBoost) and Random Fores (RF) models performed the best in the CMP-IV group, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.768 (95% CI: 0.742, 0.786), 0.766 (95% CI: 0.744, 0.792), 0.762 (95% CI: 0.723, 0.801), and 0.732 (95% CI: 0.701, 0.763), respectively. In the Non-CMP-IV group, the LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost and RF models performed the best, with AUC values of 0.738 (95% CI: 0.699, 0.777), 0.732 (95% CI: 0.694, 0.770), 0.724 (95% CI: 0.668, 0.789), and 0.716 (95% CI: 0.656, 0.774), respectively. Analysis of feature importance and SHAP revealed that duration of AF, preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction, postoperative heart rhythm, preoperative neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, preoperative left atrial diameter and heart rate were significant factors in AF recurrence.ConclusionCMP-IV is effective in treating AF and multiple machine learning models were successfully developed, and several risk factors were identified for AF recurrence, which may aid clinical decision-making and optimize the individual surgical management of AF.

Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common endocrine carcinoma and has frequent recurrence instances. Although PTC recurrence has been predicted using predictors established using various features and techniques, its early detection is still challenging. To address this issue, it is aimed to develop a deep‐learning model that utilizes not only the initial medical records but also the thyroid function tests (TFTs) performed periodically post‐surgery. Herein, a novel multimodal prediction model, called the hybrid architecture for multimodal analysis (HAMA), that can analyze numeric and time‐series data simultaneously, is proposed. For quantitative evaluation, fourfold cross validation is conducted on data of 1613 PTC patients including 63 locoregional recurrence patients, and the HAMA is achieved the following performance: sensitivity (0.9688); specificity (0.9781); F1‐score (0.7943); and area under the receiver‐operating characteristic curve, AUROC (0.9863). Furthermore, a real‐time prediction simulation is conducted at 6‐month intervals by reconstructing the data of each patient into real‐time data. It is demonstrated in the real‐time simulation results that the HAMA predicts PTC recurrence at least 1.5 years in advance by recalculating the recurrence probability using the additional follow‐up data. To the best of the knowledge, the HAMA is the first deep‐learning model to reflect continuous change in the physical condition of a patient post‐surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: SFTs are thought to have an unpredictable clinical course and currently have no recognized prognostic criterion. Our study aimed to determine the relationship between clinicopathological characteristics and the prognosis of patients with orbital SFTs. Methods: The clinicopathological features of these patients were extracted from clinical records. The relationships between these features and prognosis were analysed. Results: The positive rates of CD34, CD99, Blc2, and STAT6 expression were 90.3%, 90.3%, 83.9%, and 100%, respectively. The tumour recurrence rate was 38.7%. A higher recurrence rate was observed in patients with Ki67 index ≥ 5 (56.25% vs. 20%, P = 0.038). Conclusion: A Ki67 index ≥ 5 was an effective parameter for predicting tumour recurrence of orbital SFTs. Close follow-up is needed for these patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The incidence of recurrence of cervical cancer ranges from 10 to 40 %. The 5-year survival rate for patients with recurrent cervical cancer is about 5–15 % against the background of current drug therapy. Clinical and morphological characteristics of the tumor process are known, which are used as markers of an unfavorable prognosis for the development of cervical cancer recurrence. The search for molecular prognostic markers of the course of cervical cancer continues.The aim. To determine the level of immune cycle proteins in patients with cervical cancer 0–IV stages, depending on the occurrence of a relapse of the disease.Materials and research methods. A retrospective analysis of previously obtained results of a study on the local level of immune cycle proteins in patients with cervical cancer was performed. Three years after follow-up, 2 groups were formed: group 1 – patients treated for cervical cancer without signs of disease progression (n = 83); group 2 – patients with cervical cancer with local or systemic recurrence (n = 18). Used statistical methods: non-parametric methods of statistics using the Kruskal – Wallis test; ROC-analysis for significant values in order to calculate threshold values; determination of the quality of the identified predictive markers by calculating the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy.Results. Local initial threshold values have a predictive value for predicting the occurrence of cervical cancer recurrence: B7.2 < 10.7 pg/ml (Se = 0.87; Sp = 0.73; Ac = 0.76; AUC = 0.78), PD-L1 ≤ 5.1 pg/ml (Se = 0.87; Sp = 0.68; Ac = 0.71; AUC = 0.76), sCD27 ≥ 32.0 pg/ml (Se = 0.75; Sp = 0.78; Ac = 0.78; AUC = 0.75).Conclusion. Determination of local levels of B7.2, PD-L1, sCD27 in patients with cervical cancer before treatment can be used to predict the development of disease recurrence during 3 years of follow-up.

Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common endocrine carcinoma and has frequent recurrence instances. Although PTC recurrence has been predicted using predictors established using various features and techniques, its early detection is still challenging. To address this issue, it is aimed to develop a deep‐learning model that utilizes not only the initial medical records but also the thyroid function tests (TFTs) performed periodically post‐surgery. Herein, a novel multimodal prediction model, called the hybrid architecture for multimodal analysis (HAMA), that can analyze numeric and time‐series data simultaneously, is proposed. For quantitative evaluation, fourfold cross validation is conducted on data of 1613 PTC patients including 63 locoregional recurrence patients, and the HAMA is achieved the following performance: sensitivity (0.9688); specificity (0.9781); F1‐score (0.7943); and area under the receiver‐operating characteristic curve, AUROC (0.9863). Furthermore, a real‐time prediction simulation is conducted at 6‐month intervals by reconstructing the data of each patient into real‐time data. It is demonstrated in the real‐time simulation results that the HAMA predicts PTC recurrence at least 1.5 years in advance by recalculating the recurrence probability using the additional follow‐up data. To the best of the knowledge, the HAMA is the first deep‐learning model to reflect continuous change in the physical condition of a patient post‐surgery.

Preoperative prediction of recurrence outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) facilitates physicians' clinical decision-making. Preoperative imaging and related clinical baseline data of patients are valuable for evaluating prognosis. With the widespread application of machine learning techniques, the present study proposed the ensemble learning method based on efficient feature representations to predict recurrence outcomes within three years after surgery. Radiomics features during arterial phase (AP) and clinical data were selected for training the ensemble models. In order to improve the efficiency of the process, the lesion area was automatically segmented by 3D U-Net. It was found that the mIoU of the segmentation model was 0.8874, and the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) was the most superior, with an average accuracy of 0.7600, a recall of 0.7673, a F1 score of 0.7553, and an AUC of 0.8338 when inputting radiomics features during AP and clinical baseline indicators. Studies have shown that the proposed strategy can relatively accurately predict the recurrence outcome within three years, which is helpful for physicians to evaluate individual patients before surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pathological images of gastric cancer serve as the gold standard for diagnosing this malignancy. However, the recurrence prediction task often encounters challenges such as insignificant morphological features of the lesions, insufficient fusion of multi-resolution features, and inability to leverage contextual information effectively. To address these issues, a three-stage recurrence prediction method based on pathological images of gastric cancer is proposed. In the first stage, the self-supervised learning framework SimCLR was adopted to train low-resolution patch images, aiming to diminish the interdependence among diverse tissue images and yield decoupled enhanced features. In the second stage, the obtained low-resolution enhanced features were fused with the corresponding high-resolution unenhanced features to achieve feature complementation across multiple resolutions. In the third stage, to address the position encoding difficulty caused by the large difference in the number of patch images, we performed position encoding based on multi-scale local neighborhoods and employed self-attention mechanism to obtain features with contextual information. The resulting contextual features were further combined with the local features extracted by the convolutional neural network. The evaluation results on clinically collected data showed that, compared with the best performance of traditional methods, the proposed network provided the best accuracy and area under curve (AUC), which were improved by 7.63% and 4.51%, respectively. These results have effectively validated the usefulness of this method in predicting gastric cancer recurrence.

The incidence of left atrial (LA) supraventricular arrhythmias is increasing. Even after LA ablation, recurrence of these tachycardias is common. MRI studies show that LA cardiomyopathy is a significant risk factor for recurrence and correlates with low voltage areas detected via 3D electroanatomic mapping (EAM). There are limited data on the impact of low voltage extent detected by EAM on recurrence-free survival. Voltage thresholds defining low voltage vary across different studies. This study aims to investigate the impact of the extent of low voltage areas in the LA on recurrence-free survival and to assess whether defining low voltage areas using thresholds of 0.5, 0.4, or 0.3 mV offers better predictive performance. Patients with atrial arrhythmia who underwent LA EAM at Ulm University Heart Center between September 2018 and September 2022 were included from the ATRIUM registry. ROC analysis determined the voltage threshold for predicting recurrence-free survival. Kaplan-Meier and logistic regression models adjusted for patient variables were used to analyze recurrence-free survival. Of 1089 screened patients, 108 met the inclusion criteria. ROC analysis indicated that a 0.4 mV threshold for low voltage provided the best predictive performance. Logistic regression showed a 1.039-fold increase in recurrence risk per percent increase in LA low voltage area (odds ratio = 1.039, 95% CI 1.014-1.064). Low voltage extent in EAM correlates with 1-year recurrence rate after ablation of left atrial supraventricular arrhythmias. The threshold of 0.4 mV is the most suitable for predicting recurrences of those examined.

Background: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the most prevalent endocrine malignancy with a recurrence rate of about 20%, necessitating better predictive methods for patient management. This study aims to create a relational classification model to predict DTC recurrence by integrating clinical, pathological, and follow-up data., Methods: The balanced dataset comprises 550 DTC samples collected over 15 years, featuring 13 clinicopathological variables. To address the class imbalance in recurrence status, the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique for Nominal and Continuous (SMOTE-NC) was utilized. A hybrid model combining classification algorithms with association rule mining was developed. Two relational classification approaches, regularized class association rules (RCAR) and classification based on association rules (CBAR), were implemented. Binomial logistic regression analyzed independent predictors of recurrence. Model performance was assessed through accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 score., Results: The RCAR model demonstrated superior performance over the CBAR model, achieving accuracy, sensitivity, and F1 score of 96.7%, 93.1%, and 96.7%, respectively. Association rules highlighted that papillary pathology with an incomplete response strongly predicted recurrence. The combination of incomplete response and lymphadenopathy was also a significant predictor. Conversely, the absence of adenopathy and complete response to treatment were linked to freedom from recurrence. Incomplete structural response was identified as a critical predictor of recurrence risk, even with other low-recurrence conditions., Conclusion: This study introduces a robust and interpretable predictive model that enhances personalized medicine in thyroid cancer care. The model effectively identifies high-risk individuals, allowing for tailored follow-up strategies that could improve patient outcomes and optimize resource allocation in DTC management., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Firat Atay, Yagin, Colak, Elkiran, Mansuri, Ahmad and Ardigò.)

Abstract Background To reduce disease recurrence after radical surgery for lung squamous cell carcinomas (SQCCs), accurate prediction of recurrent high-risk patients is required for efficient patient selection for adjuvant chemotherapy. Because treatment modalities for recurrent lung SQCCs are scarce compared to lung adenocarcinomas (ADCs), accurately selecting lung SQCC patients for adjuvant chemotherapy after radical surgery is highly important. Predicting lung cancer recurrence with high objectivity is difficult with conventional histopathological prognostic factors; therefore, identification of a novel predictor is expected to be highly beneficial. Lipid metabolism alterations in cancers are known to contribute to cancer progression. Previously, we found that increased sphingomyelin (SM)(d35:1) in lung ADCs is a candidate for an objective recurrence predictor. However, no lipid predictors for lung SQCC recurrence have been identified to date. This study aims to identify candidate lipid predictors for lung SQCC recurrence after radical surgery. Methods Recurrent (n = 5) and non-recurrent (n = 6) cases of lung SQCC patients who underwent radical surgery were assigned to recurrent and non-recurrent groups, respectively. Extracted lipids from frozen tissue samples of primary lung SQCC were analyzed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Candidate lipid predictors were screened by comparing the relative expression levels between the recurrent and non-recurrent groups. To compare lipidomic characteristics associated with recurrent SQCCs and ADCs, a meta-analysis combining SQCC (n = 11) and ADC (n = 20) cohorts was conducted. Results Among 1745 screened lipid species, five species were decreased (≤ 0.5 fold change; P

A reliable prediction of the recurrence risk of pheochromocytoma after radical surgery would be a key element for the tailoring/personalization of post-surgical follow-up. Recently, our group developed a multivariable continuous model that quantifies this risk based on genetic, histopathological, and clinical data. The aim of the present study was to simplify this tool to a discrete score for easier clinical use. Data from our previous study were retrieved, which encompassed 177 radically operated pheochromocytoma patients; supervised regression and machine-learning techniques were used for score development. After Cox regression, the variables independently associated with recurrence were tumor size, positive genetic testing, age, and PASS. In order to derive a simpler scoring system, continuous variables were dichotomized, using > 50 mm for tumor size, ≤ 35 years for age, and ≥ 3 for PASS as cut-points. A novel prognostic score was created on an 8-point scale by assigning 1 point for tumor size > 50 mm, 3 points for positive genetic testing, 1 point for age ≤ 35 years, and 3 points for PASS ≥ 3; its predictive performance, as assessed using Somers' D, was equal to 0.577 and was significantly higher than the performance of any of the four dichotomized predictors alone. In conclusion, this simple scoring system may be of value as an easy-to-use tool to stratify recurrence risk and tailor post-surgical follow-up in radically operated pheochromocytoma patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectives: Ulcerative colitis is a chronic recurrent intestinal inflammatory disease, and its recurrence is difficult to predict. In this review, we summarized the objective indicators that can be used to evaluate intestinal inflammation, the purpose is to better predict the clinical recurrence of UC, formulate individualized treatment plan during remission of UC, and improve the level of diagnosis and treatment of UC. Methods: Based on the search results in the PUBMED database, we explored the accuracy and value of these methods in predicting the clinical recurrence of UC from the following three aspects: endoscopic and histological scores, serum biomarkers and fecal biomarkers. Results: Colonoscopy with biopsy is the gold standard for assessing intestinal inflammation, but it is invasive, inconvenient and expensive. At present, there is no highly sensitive and specific endoscopic or histological score to predict the clinical recurrence of UC. Compared with serum biomarkers, fecal biomarkers have higher sensitivity and specificity because they are in direct contact with the intestine and are closer to the site of intestinal inflammation. Fecal calprotectin is currently the most studied and meaningful fecal biomarker. Lactoferrin and S100A12, as novel biomarkers, have no better performance than FC in predicting the recurrence of UC. Conclusions: FC is currently the most promising predictive marker, but it lacks an accurate cut-off value. Combining patient symptoms, incorporating multiple indicators to construct a UC recurrence prediction model, and formulating individualized treatment plans for high recurrence risk patients will be the focus of UC remission management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The identification of patients prone to atrial fibrillation (AF) relapse after catheter ablation is essential for better patient selection and risk stratification. The current prospective cohort study aims to validate a novel P-wave index based on beat-to-beat (B2B) P-wave morphological and wavelet analysis designed to detect patients with low burden AF as a predictor of AF recurrence within a year after successful catheter ablation. From a total of 138 consecutive patients scheduled for AF ablation, 12-lead ECG and 10 min vectorcardiogram (VCG) recordings were obtained. Univariate analysis revealed that patients with higher B2B P-wave index had a two-fold risk for AF recurrence (HR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.24–4.44, p: 0.010), along with prolonged P-wave, interatrial block, early AF recurrence, female gender, heart failure history, previous stroke, and CHA2DS2-VASc score. Multivariate analysis of assessable predictors before ablation revealed that B2B P-wave index, along with heart failure history and a history of previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, are independent predicting factors of atrial fibrillation recurrence. Further studies are needed to assess the predictive value of the B2B index with greater accuracy and evaluate a possible relationship with atrial substrate analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose to quantitatively compare loss functions based on parameterized Tsallis–Havrda–Charvat entropy and classical Shannon entropy for the training of a deep network in the case of small datasets which are usually encountered in medical applications. Shannon cross-entropy is widely used as a loss function for most neural networks applied to the segmentation, classification and detection of images. Shannon entropy is a particular case of Tsallis–Havrda–Charvat entropy. In this work, we compare these two entropies through a medical application for predicting recurrence in patients with head–neck and lung cancers after treatment. Based on both CT images and patient information, a multitask deep neural network is proposed to perform a recurrence prediction task using cross-entropy as a loss function and an image reconstruction task. Tsallis–Havrda–Charvat cross-entropy is a parameterized cross-entropy with the parameter α. Shannon entropy is a particular case of Tsallis–Havrda–Charvat entropy for α = 1 . The influence of this parameter on the final prediction results is studied. In this paper, the experiments are conducted on two datasets including in total 580 patients, of whom 434 suffered from head–neck cancers and 146 from lung cancers. The results show that Tsallis–Havrda–Charvat entropy can achieve better performance in terms of prediction accuracy with some values of α. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IoT has facilitated predominant advancements in cancer research by incorporating Artificial intelligence (AI) that enables human decision-makers to achieve a better decision. Recently, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) classifier has launched in predicting recurrence cancer genes in the cervix. At the initial phase, the recurrence gene expression of lncRNA is collected from Geo Datasets. Secondly, data imputation, accomplished with Mode and Mean Missing method (MMM-DI). Thirdly, feature selection is compassed using Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion with Diversity based Artificial Fish Swarm (HSDAFS). In the HSDA.FS algorithm, the diversity parameter is added based on the gene value, and their risk score of the lncRNAs is computed using the Artificial intelligence (AI) technique. Finally, recurrence prediction, an ENSemble Classification Framework (ENSCF), is proposed based on recurrent neural networks. The prognostic factor is computed with a risk score of nine lncRNA signatures for 300 samples taken from GSE44001. The Chi-Square method has been used to obtain statistical results. The survival of the patient with recurrence cervical cancer is shown using the proposed model.

Abstract Background To improve the postoperative prognosis of patients with lung cancer, predicting the recurrence high-risk patients is needed for the efficient application of adjuvant chemotherapy. However, predicting lung cancer recurrence after a radical surgery is difficult even with conventional histopathological prognostic factors, thereby a novel predictor should be identified. As lipid metabolism alterations are known to contribute to cancer progression, we hypothesized that lung adenocarcinomas with high recurrence risk contain candidate lipid predictors. This study aimed to identify candidate lipid predictors for the recurrence of lung adenocarcinoma after a radical surgery. Methods Frozen tissue samples of primary lung adenocarcinoma obtained from patients who underwent a radical surgery were retrospectively reviewed. Recurrent and non-recurrent cases were assigned to recurrent (n = 10) and non-recurrent (n = 10) groups, respectively. Extracted lipids from frozen tissue samples were subjected to liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry analysis. The average total lipid levels of the non-recurrent and recurrent groups were compared. Candidate predictors were screened by comparing the folding change and P-value of t-test in each lipid species between the recurrent and non-recurrent groups. Results The average total lipid level of the recurrent group was 1.65 times higher than that of the non-recurrent group (P

Background and Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases with small nodules are commonly treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA), but the recurrence rate remains high. This study aimed to establish a blood signature for identifying HCC with metastatic traits pre-RFA., Methods: Data from HCC patients treated between 2010 and 2017 were retrospectively collected. A blood signature for metastatic HCC was established based on blood levels of alpha-fetoprotein and des-γ-carboxy-prothrombin, cell-free DNA (cfDNA) mutations, and methylation changes in target genes in frozen-stored plasma samples that were collected before RFA performance. The HCC blood signature was validated in patients prospectively enrolled in 2021., Results: Of 251 HCC patients in the retrospective study, 33.9% experienced recurrence within 1 year post-RFA. The HCC blood signature identified from these patients included des-γ-carboxy-prothrombin ≥40 mAU/mL with cfDNA mutation score, where cfDNA mutations occurred in the genes of TP53, CTNNB1, and TERT promoter. This signature effectively predicted 1-year post-RFA recurrence of HCC with 92% specificity and 91% sensitivity in the retrospective dataset, and with 87% specificity and 76% sensitivity in the prospective dataset (n=32 patients). Among 14 cases in the prospective study with biopsy tissues available, positivity for the HCC blood signature was associated with a higher HCC tissue score and shorter distance between HCC cells and microvasculature., Conclusions: This study established an HCC blood signature in pre-RFA blood that potentially reflects HCC with metastatic traits and may be valuable for predicting the disease's early recurrence post-RFA., Competing Interests: The authors have no conflict of interests related to this publication., (© 2024 Authors.)

Background: To reduce disease recurrence after radical surgery for lung squamous cell carcinomas (SQCCs), accurate prediction of recurrent high-risk patients is required for efficient patient selection for adjuvant chemotherapy. Because treatment modalities for recurrent lung SQCCs are scarce compared to lung adenocarcinomas (ADCs), accurately selecting lung SQCC patients for adjuvant chemotherapy after radical surgery is highly important. Predicting lung cancer recurrence with high objectivity is difficult with conventional histopathological prognostic factors; therefore, identification of a novel predictor is expected to be highly beneficial. Lipid metabolism alterations in cancers are known to contribute to cancer progression. Previously, we found that increased sphingomyelin (SM)(d35:1) in lung ADCs is a candidate for an objective recurrence predictor. However, no lipid predictors for lung SQCC recurrence have been identified to date. This study aims to identify candidate lipid predictors for lung SQCC recurrence after radical surgery.Methods: Recurrent (n = 5) and non-recurrent (n = 6) cases of lung SQCC patients who underwent radical surgery were assigned to recurrent and non-recurrent groups, respectively. Extracted lipids from frozen tissue samples of primary lung SQCC were analyzed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Candidate lipid predictors were screened by comparing the relative expression levels between the recurrent and non-recurrent groups. To compare lipidomic characteristics associated with recurrent SQCCs and ADCs, a meta-analysis combining SQCC (n = 11) and ADC (n = 20) cohorts was conducted.Results: Among 1745 screened lipid species, five species were decreased (≤ 0.5 fold change; P < 0.05) and one was increased (≥ 2 fold change; P < 0.05) in the recurrent group. Among the six candidates, the top three final candidates (selected by AUC assessment) were all decreased SM(t34:1) species, showing strong performance in recurrence prediction that is equivalent to that of histopathological prognostic factors. Meta-analysis indicated that decreases in a limited number of SM species were observed in the SQCC cohort as a lipidomic characteristic associated with recurrence, in contrast, significant increases in a broad range of lipids (including SM species) were observed in the ADC cohort.Conclusion: We identified decreased SM(t34:1) as a novel candidate predictor for lung SQCC recurrence. Lung SQCCs and ADCs have opposite lipidomic characteristics concerning for recurrence risk.Trial Registration: This retrospective study was registered at the UMIN Clinical Trial Registry ( UMIN000039202 ) on January 21, 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Baseline diagnoses of bipolar disorder types 1 and 2, along with a familial history of bipolar disorder, are strong predictors of recurrence with (hypo)manic or mixed features. • Discrepancies in wake-up times between weekdays and weekends, along with disrupted circadian rhythms, are notable predictors of recurrence with only depressive features. • These findings underscore the importance of considering specific predictors, such as mood disorder type, family history of bipolar disorder, and circadian rhythm disruptions including sleep-wake patterns, in predicting mood recurrence risks and tailoring early intervention strategies. We investigate the predictive factors of the mood recurrence in patients with early-onset major mood disorders from a prospective observational cohort study from July 2015 to December 2019. A total of 495 patients were classified into three groups according to recurrence during the cohort observation period: recurrence group with (hypo)manic or mixed features (MMR), recurrence group with only depressive features (ODR), and no recurrence group (NR). As a result, the baseline diagnosis of bipolar disorder type 1 (BDI) and bipolar disorder type 2 (BDII), along with a familial history of BD, are strong predictors of the MMR. The discrepancies in wake-up times between weekdays and weekends, along with disrupted circadian rhythms, are identified as a notable predictor of ODR. Our findings confirm that we need to be aware of different predictors for each form of mood recurrences in patients with early-onset mood disorders. In clinical practice, we expect that information obtained from the initial assessment of patients with mood disorders, such as mood disorder type, family history of BD, regularity of wake-up time, and disruption of circadian rhythms, can help predict the risk of recurrence for each patient, allowing for early detection and timely intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Overall, 40% of patients with a locally advanced head and neck cancer (LAHNC) treated by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) present local recurrence within 2 years after the treatment. The aims of this study were to characterize voxel-wise the sub-regions where tumor recurrence appear and to predict their location from pre-treatment 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) images. Materials and methods Twenty-six patients with local failure after treatment were included in this study. Local recurrence volume was identified by co-registering pre-treatment and recurrent PET/CT images using a customized rigid registration algorithm. A large set of voxel-wise features were extracted from pre-treatment PET to train a random forest model allowing to predict local recurrence at the voxel level. Results Out of 26 expert-assessed registrations, 15 provided enough accuracy to identify recurrence volumes and were included for further analysis. Recurrence volume represented on average 23% of the initial tumor volume. The MTV with a threshold of 50% of SUVmax plus a 3D margin of 10 mm covered on average 89.8% of the recurrence and 96.9% of the initial tumor. SUV and MTV alone were not sufficient to identify the area of recurrence. Using a random forest model, 15 parameters, combining radiomics and spatial location, were identified, allowing to predict the recurrence sub-regions with a median area under the receiver operating curve of 0.71 (range 0.14–0.91). Conclusion As opposed to regional comparisons which do not bring enough evidence for accurate prediction of recurrence volume, a voxel-wise analysis of FDG-uptake features suggested a potential to predict recurrence with enough accuracy to consider tailoring CRT by dose escalation within likely radioresistant regions.

Abstract Background Breast ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) represent approximately 20% of screen-detected breast cancers. The overall risk for DCIS patients treated with breast-conserving surgery stems almost exclusively from local recurrence. Although a mastectomy or adjuvant radiation can reduce recurrence risk, there are significant concerns regarding patient over-/under-treatment. Current clinicopathological markers are insufficient to accurately assess the recurrence risk. To address this issue, we developed a novel machine learning (ML) pipeline to predict risk of ipsilateral recurrence using digitized whole slide images (WSI) and clinicopathologic long-term outcome data from a retrospectively collected cohort of DCIS patients (n = 344) treated with lumpectomy at Nottingham University Hospital, UK. Methods The cohort was split case-wise into training (n = 159, 31 with 10-year recurrence) and validation (n = 185, 26 with 10-year recurrence) sets. The sections from primary tumors were stained with H&E, then digitized and analyzed by the pipeline. In the first step, a classifier trained manually by pathologists was applied to digital slides to annotate the areas of stroma, normal/benign ducts, cancer ducts, dense lymphocyte region, and blood vessels. In the second step, a recurrence risk classifier was trained on eight select architectural and spatial organization tissue features from the annotated areas to predict recurrence risk. Results The recurrence classifier significantly predicted the 10-year recurrence risk in the training [hazard ratio (HR) = 11.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3–25.3, accuracy (Acc) = 0.87, sensitivity (Sn) = 0.71, and specificity (Sp) = 0.91] and independent validation [HR = 6.39 (95% CI 3.0–13.8), p

A reliable prediction of the recurrence risk of pheochromocytoma after radical surgery would be a key element for the tailoring/personalization of post-surgical follow-up. Recently, our group developed a multivariable continuous model that quantifies this risk based on genetic, histopathological, and clinical data. The aim of the present study was to simplify this tool to a discrete score for easier clinical use. Data from our previous study were retrieved, which encompassed 177 radically operated pheochromocytoma patients; supervised regression and machine-learning techniques were used for score development. After Cox regression, the variables independently associated with recurrence were tumor size, positive genetic testing, age, and PASS. In order to derive a simpler scoring system, continuous variables were dichotomized, using > 50 mm for tumor size, ≤ 35 years for age, and ≥ 3 for PASS as cut-points. A novel prognostic score was created on an 8-point scale by assigning 1 point for tumor size > 50 mm, 3 points for positive genetic testing, 1 point for age ≤ 35 years, and 3 points for PASS ≥ 3; its predictive performance, as assessed using Somers’ D, was equal to 0.577 and was significantly higher than the performance of any of the four dichotomized predictors alone. In conclusion, this simple scoring system may be of value as an easy-to-use tool to stratify recurrence risk and tailor post-surgical follow-up in radically operated pheochromocytoma patients.

The identification of patients prone to atrial fibrillation (AF) relapse after catheter ablation is essential for better patient selection and risk stratification. The current prospective cohort study aims to validate a novel P-wave index based on beat-to-beat (B2B) P-wave morphological and wavelet analysis designed to detect patients with low burden AF as a predictor of AF recurrence within a year after successful catheter ablation. From a total of 138 consecutive patients scheduled for AF ablation, 12-lead ECG and 10 min vectorcardiogram (VCG) recordings were obtained. Univariate analysis revealed that patients with higher B2B P-wave index had a two-fold risk for AF recurrence (HR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.24–4.44, p: 0.010), along with prolonged P-wave, interatrial block, early AF recurrence, female gender, heart failure history, previous stroke, and CHA2DS2-VASc score. Multivariate analysis of assessable predictors before ablation revealed that B2B P-wave index, along with heart failure history and a history of previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, are independent predicting factors of atrial fibrillation recurrence. Further studies are needed to assess the predictive value of the B2B index with greater accuracy and evaluate a possible relationship with atrial substrate analysis.